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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Improved Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole Using a Stochastic Dynamical Model Compared to the North American Multimodel Ensemble Forecast

This study assesses the predictive skill of eight North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) models in predicting the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). We find that the forecasted ensemble-mean IOD–El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship deteriorates away from the observed relationship with increasing lead time, which might be one reason that limits the IOD predictive skill in coupled models. We are able to improve the IOD predictive skill using a recently developed stochastic dynamical model (SDM) forced by forecasted ENSO conditions. The results are consistent with the previous result that operational IOD predictability beyond persistence at lead times beyond one season is mostly controlled by ENSO predictability and the signal-to-noise ratio of the Indo-Pacific climate system. The multimodel ensemble (MME) investigated here is found to be of superior skill compared to each individual model at most lead times. Importantly, the skill of the SDM IOD predictions forced with forecasted ENSO conditions were either similar or better than those of the MME IOD forecasts. Moreover, the SDM forced with observed ENSO conditions exhibits significantly higher IOD prediction skill than the MME at longer lead times, suggesting the large potential skill increase that could be achieved by improving operational ENSO forecasts. We find that both cold and warm biases of the predicted Niño-3.4 index may cause false alarms of negative and positive IOD events, respectively, in NMME models. Many false alarms for IOD forecasts at lead times longer than one season in the original forecasts disappear or are significantly reduced in the SDM forced by forecasted ENSO conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Perspectives on Next Steps in Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

Much has happened in arms control over the last year as this chapter has been in development. The prospects for arms control as a viable national security tool have, if anything, grown darker. Russia has falsely equated tearing down the remaining arms control edifice with creating potential leverage vis-à-vis its actions in Ukraine. China has failed to update its talking points on being a responsible arms control actor with its massive nuclear force expansion. The United States has stated clearly that it is open for business on arms control and risk reduction, but it unfortunately has no customers in Russia and China. It remains unclear what specifically the United States is selling in terms of what it wants in a potential agreement. Competitive dynamics and an atmosphere of great power competition are driving all parties further away from the table.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atmospheric processing and aerosol aging responsible for observed increase in absorptivity of long-range-transported smoke over the southeast Atlantic

Biomass burning aerosol (BBA) from agricultural fires in southern Africa contributes about one-third of the global carbonaceous aerosol load. These particles have strong radiative effects in the southeast Atlantic (SEA), which depend in part on the radiative contrast between the aerosol layer in the free troposphere (FT) and the underlying cloud layer. However, there is large disagreement in model estimates of aerosol-driven climate forcing due to uncertainties in the vertical distribution, optical properties, and life cycle of these particles. This study applies a novel method combining remote sensing observations with regional model outputs to investigate the aging of the BBA and its impact on the optical properties during transatlantic transport from emission sources in Africa to the SEA. Results show distinct variations in extinction Ångström exponent (EAE) and single-scattering albedo (SSA) as aerosols age. Near the source, fresh aerosols are characterized by low mean SSA (0.84) and high EAE (1.85), indicating smaller, highly absorbing particles. By isolating marine contributions from the total column during BBA transport across the SEA, our analysis reveals an initial decrease in BBA absorptivity, with mean FT SSA of 0.87 after 6–7 d, followed by increased absorptivity with mean FT SSA of 0.84 after 10 d, suggesting enhanced absorption due to chemical aging. These findings indicate that BBA becomes more absorbing during extended transport across the SEA, with implications for reducing model uncertainties. Our remote-sensing-based results agree well with previous in situ studies and offer new insights into aerosol–radiation interactions and the energy balance over the SEA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulating and Evaluating Atmospheric River-Induced Precipitation Extremes Along the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Studies From 1980–2017

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for a majority of extreme precipitation and floodevents along the U.S. West Coast. To better understand the present-day characteristics of AR-relatedprecipitation extremes, a selection of nine most intense historical AR events during 1980–2017 is simulatedusing a dynamical downscaling modeling framework based on the Weather Research and ForecastingModel. We find that the chosen framework and Weather Research and Forecasting Model configurationreproduces both large-scale atmospheric features—including parent synoptic-scale cyclones—as well asthe filamentary corridors of integrated vapor transport associated with the ARs themselves. The accuracyof simulated extreme precipitation maxima, relative to in situ and interpolated gridded observations,improves notably with increasing model resolution, with improvements as large as 40–60% for fine scale(3 km) relative to coarse-scale (27 km) simulations. A separate set of simulations using smoothedtopography suggests that much of these gains stem from the improved representation of complex terrain.Additionally, using the 12 December 1995 storm in Northern California as an example, we demonstratethat only the highest-resolution simulations resolve important fine-scale features—such as localizedorographically forced vertical motion and powerful near hurricane-force boundary layer winds. Given thedemonstrated ability of a targeted dynamical downscaling framework to capture both local extremeprecipitation and key fine-scale characteristics of the most intense ARs in the historical record, we arguethat such a configuration may be highly conducive to understanding AR-related extremes and associatedchanges in a warming climate

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Impacts of Convective Cloud Microphysics in NCAR CAM5

Here we improved the treatments of convective cloud microphysics in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3) by 1) implementing new terminal velocity parameterizations for convective ice and snow particles, 2) adding graupel microphysics, 3) considering convective snow detrainment, and 4) enhancing rain initiation and generation rate in warm clouds. Furthermore, we evaluated the impacts of improved microphysics on simulated global climate, focusing on simulated cloud radiative forcing, graupel microphysics, convective cloud ice amount, and tropical precipitation. Compared to CAM5.3 with the default convective microphysics, the too-strong cloud shortwave radiative forcing due primarily to excessive convective cloud liquid is largely alleviated over the tropics and midlatitudes after rain initiation and generation rate is enhanced, in better agreement with the CERES-EBAF estimates. Geographic distributions of graupel occurrence are reasonably simulated over continents; whereas the graupel occurrence remains highly uncertain over the oceanic storm-track regions. When evaluated against the CloudSat–CALIPSO estimates, the overestimation of convective ice mass is alleviated with the improved convective ice microphysics, among which adding graupel microphysics and the accompanying increase in hydrometeor fall speed play the most important role. The probability distribution function (PDF) of rainfall intensity is sensitive to warm rain processes in convective clouds, and enhancement in warm rain production shifts the PDF toward heavier precipitation, which agrees better with the TRMM observations. Common biases of overestimating the light rain frequency and underestimating the heavy rain frequency in GCMs are mitigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation and improvement of the parameterization of aerosol hygroscopicity in global climate models using in-situ surface measurements (Final Report)

Aerosols are tiny particles suspended on the atmosphere that can interact with incoming solar radiation and affect the Earth radiative budget. They do so by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, and these properties vary depending on the aerosol size and chemical composition. Moreover, by taking up water from the surrounding air, hygroscopic aerosol particles will grow in size and change their chemical composition, thus modifying their optical properties (scattering and absorption) and their final impact on radiative forcing calculations. An accurate knowledge of aerosol hygroscopicity is crucial for estimating the net radiative impact of aerosols. We took a three-pronged approach to improve our understanding of aerosol hygroscopicity and how it is implemented in Earth system models. In the first part of our project, we developed a benchmark dataset from existing aerosol hygroscopic growth measurements made by tandem nephelometer humidogram systems. We analyzed, using a standardized methodology, observations from 26 in-situ stations around the globe. Measurement data was collected from multiple data providers, reviewed and harmonized to create a consistent dataset of the scattering enhancement factor due to aerosol water uptake. This dataset is archived in several publicly available databases for use by interested researchers. In the second part of the project, we used the benchmark hygroscopicity dataset to perform a global study on aerosol hygroscopicity and aerosol optical properties. Measurements show a global picture of scattering enhancement with larger values for Arctic and marine sites and lower for urban and desert sites. We assessed the RH dependence of aerosol radiative forcing and showed that the overall effect of aerosol hygroscopicity on DARF is an increase in the absolute forcing effect (negative sign) by a factor of up to 4 compared to dry conditions (RH<40%). Finally, we explored using aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA) and scattering Angstrom exponent (SAE) as possible proxies for aerosol hygroscopicity. SSA showed more promise as a surrogate for the scattering enhancement factor than SAE, but neither was ideal. In the third part of the project we evaluated the output of ten Earth system models (ESMs) against the benchmark hygroscopicity dataset. ESMs utilize various schemes for aerosol hygroscopicity which had not been previously tested against observations on a global scale. We found that ESMs currently overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. Model parameterizations of hygroscopicity and model chemistry are two main factors driving the observed diversity in hygroscopicity simulations among the models. In addition, our study makes several suggestions for modelers, including improving the parameterizations of organic and sea salt aerosol hygroscopicity. Future hygroscopicity model evaluation experiments should include the model data related to particles size which was not available for our study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Biomass Burning Aerosol via Integrated Analyses of Aerosol Mass Spectrometry Data from DOE Campaigns and ACRF Long Term Measurements

Biomass burning (BB) is one of the largest sources of aerosol particles in the atmosphere and a significant source of trace gases important to atmospheric chemistry. Organic aerosols from biomass burning sources (BBOA) are an important but poorly characterized component of the earth’s climate system. BBOA composition and life cycle processes are associated with enormous complexities and contribute significantly to model uncertainties. Hence it is important to improve the ability to simulate the concentration and properties (chemical, optical, and hygroscopic) of BBOA and the atmospheric aging processes that affect these properties. Here, we propose to analyze ambient data collected from the DOE Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP) field campaign and from a long term measurement site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program – the Southern Great Plains (SGP), where transported BB plumes and elevated BBOA episodes were frequently observed. This project is aimed at 1) gaining detailed, quantitative understanding of the chemical and physical properties of BBOA and their chemical changes during atmospheric aging via advanced analysis of aerosol measurement data acquired at the summit of Mt. Bachelor (MBO) during the BBOP campaign and through integration with concurrent measurements of trace gases, particle properties, and meteorological conditions performed at MBO and from the G-1 aircraft; 2) gaining better understanding of BBOA properties and its roles in radiative forcing via analysis of routine data from the ARM long-term measurement sites; and 3) integrating the results from 1) and 2) into a global database of aerosol mass spectrometry and collaborate with modelers on evaluating and improving numerical model performance as part of the ASR program.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The U.S. DOE ARM User Facility Establishes a New Site for Studies of Land–Aerosol–Cloud Interactions in the Southeastern United States

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has established a new site in the Bankhead National Forest (BNF) in northern Alabama that will gather data on how clouds, the land surface, and aerosols interact at a hierarchy of scales important to understanding and simulating the Earth system. Starting its operations in October 2024, the BNF site provides a multi-year opportunity for scientists to unravel complex land-atmosphere interactions. A suite of ground-based sensors, elevated tower-based instrumentation, and aerial facilities will enable scientists to investigate those interactions from within the canopy to the clouds. The Southeastern United States was recommended by the DOE ARM and its collaborators in the broader community as an important region to address their common scientific questions given the region’s abundant surface-forced convective clouds and mesoscale convective systems that pose ongoing challenges in Earth system models. The region is also home to significant terrain complexity and land-use heterogeneity that will unleash new understanding of anthropogenic and biogenic aerosol processes, boundary-layer aerosol-cloud interactions, and the interactions between the terrestrial ecosystem and coupled aerosol-cloud-radiation processes.

Aerosols↗
DOE OSTI2021

Topographic and nanomechanical mapping of plutonium surfaces

Atomic force microscopy of gallium-stabilized δ-phase plutonium coupons has been used to map their topography and qualitative mechanical character, including Derjaguin-Muller-Toporov modulus, adhesion, deformation, and dissipation. Initial topographical results demonstrate that the plutonium surface is considerably rough and heterogeneous. Qualitative nanomechanical mapping revealed distinct striation patterns that are not observed in the topography images. Further investigation of the striations in the nanomechanical modes of imaging suggest that they are not measurement artifacts, or plutonium specific features. Similar investigations of stainless steel surfaces established a strong correlation between the mechanical working of the surface (i.e. cutting and grinding) and the appearance of the striations. Reimaging of the plutonium surface after moderate oxidation occurring within an inert Ar atmosphere (~1 ppm O 2 ) over the course of 13 months revealed a diminished striation pattern. It is suggested that surface stress/strain induced by the mechanical working of the metal surfaces results in the patterns of variable modulus, adhesion, deformation, and dissipation, and that these patterns are affected by the chemical changes and aging of the plutonium surface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Recent Global Hydroclimate Change Using Multivariate Detection and Attribution Techniques and GCM Experiments

The observed slowdown in the rate of global average surface temperature (T) warming during the post-1998 decade (referred to at the time as the “global warming hiatus”) posed a challenge for climate researchers because it was not captured in global climate models projection. Observational and modeling evidence hinted that that leveling of the T trend was linked with the simultaneous appearance of cold surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific that formed a protracted La Niña-like state, a phenomenon known as the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). It was however not clear whether the concurrent equatorial Pacific cooling was a regional response to the rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas levels or anthropogenic aerosols that is not captured by the climate models or whether it was an unrelated, serendipitous manifestation of a natural phenomenon, internal to the climate system. To resolve this issue, we proposed in this project to develop and apply fingerprinting methods to differentiate between the observed climate response to various external forcing agents and the manifestations of internal climate variability. The project also sought to find out if climate models are able to reproduce the change signals detected in key observational phenomena and if they can be used to investigate the underlying processes. As such we examined changes in global hydroclimate variability and in an outstanding example of regional hydroclimate change, namely the multi-decadal 20 th century change in Sahel rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pan-Arctic seasonal cycles and long-term trends of aerosol properties from 10 observatories

Even though the Arctic is remote, aerosol properties observed there are strongly influenced by anthropogenic emissions from outside the Arctic. This is particularly true for the so-called Arctic haze season (January through April). In summer (June through September), when atmospheric transport patterns change, and precipitation is more frequent, local Arctic sources, i.e., natural sources of aerosols and precursors, play an important role. Over the last few decades, significant reductions in anthropogenic emissions have taken place. At the same time a large body of literature shows evidence that the Arctic is undergoing fundamental environmental changes due to climate forcing, leading to enhanced emissions by natural processes that may impact aerosol properties. In this study, we analyze 9 aerosol chemical species and 4 particle optical properties from 10 Arctic observatories (Alert, Kevo, Pallas, Summit, Thule, Tiksi, Barrow/Utgiavik, Villum, and Gruvebadet and Zeppelin Observatory – both at Ny-Ålesund Research Station) to understand changes in anthropogenic and natural aerosol contributions. Variables include equivalent black carbon, particulate sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, methanesulfonic acid, sodium, iron, calcium and potassium, as well as scattering and absorption coefficients, single scattering albedo and scattering Ångström exponent. First, annual cycles are investigated, which despite anthropogenic emission reductions still show the Arctic haze phenomenon. Second, long-term trends are studied using the Mann–Kendall Theil–Sen slope method. We find in total 41 significant trends over full station records, i.e., spanning more than a decade, compared to 26 significant decadal trends. The majority of significantly declining trends is from anthropogenic tracers and occurred during the haze period, driven by emission changes between 1990 and 2000. For the summer period, no uniform picture of trends has emerged. Twenty-six percent of trends, i.e., 19 out of 73, are significant, and of those 5 are positive and 14 are negative. Negative trends include not only anthropogenic tracers such as equivalent black carbon at Kevo, but also natural indicators such as methanesulfonic acid and non-sea-salt calcium at Alert. Positive trends are observed for sulfate at Gruvebadet. No clear evidence of a significant change in the natural aerosol contribution can be observed yet. However, testing the sensitivity of the Mann–Kendall Theil–Sen method, we find that monotonic changes of around 5 % yr –1 in an aerosol property are needed to detect a significant trend within one decade. This highlights that long-term efforts well beyond a decade are needed to capture smaller changes. It is particularly important to understand the ongoing natural changes in the Arctic, where interannual variability can be high, such as with forest fire emissions and their influence on the aerosol population. To investigate the climate-change-induced influence on the aerosol population and the resulting climate feedback, long-term observations of tracers more specific to natural sources are needed, as well as of particle microphysical properties such as size distributions, which can be used to identify changes in particle populations which are not well captured by mass-oriented methods such as bulk chemical composition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the Potential Impact of River Chemistry on Arctic Coastal Production

The Arctic coastal margin receives a disproportionately large fraction of the global river discharge. The bio-geochemistry of the river water as it empties into the marine environment reflects inputs and processes that occur as the water travels from its headwaters. Climate-induced changes to Arctic vegetation and permafrost melt may impact river chemistry. Understanding the impact of river nutrients on coastal marine production, and how this may change in the future, are important for resource managers and community members who monitor and rely on coastal food resources. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model we explore the impact of timing and river nutrient concentrations on primary production in each coastal Arctic region and then assess how this influences secondary production and particle fluxes supporting the benthic food web. Our results indicate that while the concentration of Arctic river nitrogen can have a significant impact on annual average nitrogen and primary production in the coastal Arctic, with production increases of up to 20% in the river influenced interior Seas, the timing of the river nutrient inputs into the marine environment appears less important. Bloom timing and partitioning between small and large phytoplankton were minimally impacted by both river nutrient concentration and timing, suggesting that in general, coastal Arctic ecosystem dynamics will continue to be primarily driven by light availability, rather than nutrients. Under a doubling river nutrient scenario, the percentage increase in the POC flux to the benthos on river influenced Arctic coastal shelves was 2-4 times the percentage increase in primary production, suggesting changes to the river nutrient concentration has the potential to modify the Arctic food web structure and dynamics. Generally, the nutrient-induced changes to primary production were smaller than changes previously simulated in response to ice reduction and temperature increase. However, in the Laptev Sea, the production increase resulting from a doubling of river nutrients exceeded the production increase simulated with an atmospheric warming scenario. Dissolved organic carbon is presently poorly represented in the model so its impact on production is hard to simulate. Applying established relationships between modeled DOC, total DOC, and light absorption we illustrate that DOC could play a very important role in modulating production. Our findings highlight the importance of developing more realistic river nutrient and discharge forcing for Earth System Models such that their impact on the critical Arctic coastal domain can be more adequately resolved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Meteorological characteristics of extreme ozone pollution events in China and their future predictions

Ozone (O 3 ) has become one of the most concerning air pollutants in China in recent decades. In this study, based on surface observations, reanalysis data, global atmospheric chemistry model simulations, and multi-model future predictions, meteorological characteristics conducive to extreme O 3 pollution in various regions of China are investigated, and their historical changes and future trends are analyzed. During the most severe O 3 polluted months, the chemical production of O 3 is enhanced under the hot and dry conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) in June 2018 and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in July 2017, while regional transport is the main reason for the severe O3 pollution over the Sichuan Basin (SCB) in July 2015 and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in September 2019. Over the last 4 decades, the frequencies of high-temperature and low-relative-humidity conditions increased in 2000–2019 relative to 1980–1999, indicating that O 3 pollution in both the NCP and YRD has become more frequent under historical climate change. In the SCB and PRD, the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns similar to those during the most polluted months increased, together with the more frequent hot and dry conditions, contributing to the increases in severe O 3 pollution in the SCB and PRD during 1980–2019. In the future (by 2100), the frequencies of months with anomalous high temperature show stronger increasing trends in the high-forcing scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP5-8.5)) compared to the sustainable scenario (SSP1-2.6) in China. It suggests that high anthropogenic forcing will not only lead to slow economic growth and climate warming but also likely result in environmental pollution issues.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Indirect climate impacts of the Hunga eruption

Injection of sulfur and water vapour by the Hunga volcanic eruption significantly altered chemical composition and radiative budget of the stratosphere. Yet, whether the eruption could also affect surface climate, especially via indirect pathways, remains poorly understood. Here we investigate these effects using large ensembles of simulations with the CESM2(WACCM6) Earth system model, incorporating interactive chemistry and aerosols in both coupled ocean and atmosphere-only configurations. We find some statistically significant extratropical regional climate responses to the eruption driven by circulation changes; these are partially linked to the modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and its associated teleconnections, and to perturbations of the stratospheric polar vortex in both hemispheres. The stratospheric anomalies affect surface climate through modulating the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere (up to three boreal winters following the eruption) and the Southern Annular Mode in the Southern Hemisphere in late 2023. The latter is partly related to a concurrent reduction in Antarctic ozone, as increased stratospheric aerosols and water vapor reach the polar vortex. Our study suggests that the eruption could have had a non-negligible influence on regional surface climate, and discusses the mechanisms via which such an influence could occur. However, the results also highlight that this forcing is relatively weak compared to interannual variability, and is subject to model uncertainties in the representation of key processes. More research is thus needed before definitive statements on the role of the eruption in contributing to surface climate and weather events in the following years are made.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Aerosols consistently suppress the convective boundary layer development

Aerosols with different vertical distribution and various optical properties induce diverse heating rates and thereby affecting convective boundary layer (CBL) development. Our results showed consistent CBL-suppression of aerosols during daytime with numerical experiments, in which aerosols were specified at different heights with synthesized single scattering albedo from 64 studies and asymmetry factor from 20 studies globally. Absorbing aerosols concentrated below but close to the CBL top had the strongest suppression effect on CBL development relative to that concentrated near surface or above CBL. Aerosol cooling effect by attenuating incident solar radiation and surface heat flux exceeded its warming effect by reheating the atmosphere layer with absorbed shortwave radiation, and eventually declined net heating rate, which inhibited CBL development, lowered mixed-layer potential temperature and stabilized atmospheric stratification. Stove effect of absorbing aerosols (CBL enhancement) under a zero background aerosol extinction coefficient is negligible for dominant dome effect (CBL suppression) which consistently suppresses CBL development regardless of aerosol vertical height and background aerosol extinction coefficient. Our study also highlighted the importance of specifying background aerosol extinction coefficient in numerical experiments for accurate assessment of aerosol radiative forcing and CBL-aerosol interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Influences of Environmental Relative Humidity and Horizontal Scale of Subcloud Ascent on Deep Convective Initiation

This study examines two factors impacting initiation of moist deep convection: free-tropospheric environmental relative humidity (φ E ) and horizontal scale of subcloud ascent (R sub ), the latter exerting a dominant control on cumulus cloud width. A simple theoretical model is used to formulate a “scale selection” hypothesis: that a minimum R sub is required for moist convection to go deep, and that this minimum scale decreases with increasing φ E . Specifically, the ratio of R 2 sub to saturation deficit (1 - φ E ) must exceed a certain threshold value that depends on cloud-layer environmental lapse rate. Idealized, large-eddy simulations of moist convection forced by horizontally varying surface fluxes show strong sensitivity of maximum cumulus height to both φ E and R sub consistent with the hypothesis. Increasing R sub by only 300–400 m can lead to a large increase (>5 km) in cloud height. A passive tracer analysis shows that the bulk fractional entrainment rate decreases rapidly with R sub but depends little on φ E . However, buoyancy dilution increases as either R sub or φ E decreases; buoyancy above the level of free convection is rapidly depleted in dry environments when R sub is small. While deep convective initiation occurs with an increase in relative humidity of the near environment from moistening by earlier convection, the importance of this moisture preconditioning is inconclusive as it is accompanied by an increase in R sub . Overall, it is concluded that small changes to R sub driven by external forcing or by convection itself could be a dominant regulator of deep convective initiation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the earth SysTem (CATALYST)

CATALYST proposes to perform foundational coordinated research in a team-oriented collaborative effort aimed at advancing a robust understanding of modes of Earth system variability and change using models, observations and process studies. The proposed research will address the DOE/BER mission by exploring the limits to predictability, identifying fundamental underlying mechanisms, quantifying interactions among modes of variability, and discovering tipping points in the Earth system to understand the current and future impacts of these phenomena on regional and global climate. Four fundamental gaps are identified in our knowledge of the Earth system: 1) What are the limits to predictability on various timescales? 2) What are the interactions among modes of Earth system variability? 3) How may modes of Earth system variability change in response to changes in external forcing, and what are the tipping points involved with those changes? 4) How are high impact events connected to modes of Earth system variability and how may they change in the future? Related to those gaps in our knowledge, we formulate four research objectives to address those gaps using a combination of Earth system models (ESMs) and machine learning (ML) methods. Research Objective 1 (RO1) addresses the first gap above and proposes to understand modes of variability and their limits of predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales using ESMs and ML. Research Objective 2 (RO2) addresses the second gap and proposes to use a hierarchy of models to understand relevant processes and feedbacks related to how modes of variability interact with each other. Research Objective 3 (RO3) is designed to study the third gap and proposes to examine the role of external forcings in changes of modes of Earth system variability and their interactions, and the likelihood and predictability of tipping points and irreversible changes. Research Objective 4 (RO4) will address the fourth gap and proposes to use high resolution ESMs, regionally refined models (RRMs), and ML methods to investigate the relationships between high impact events (e.g. flash droughts and precipitation extremes, atmospheric rivers (ARs), tropical cyclones (TCs), storm surge/sea level rise), the synoptic systems that produce them, and their changes related to modes of Earth system variability. The research will involve the use of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), CMIP multi-model data sets, a hierarchy of simpler models, and numerous observational data sets. In the course of the proposed research, CATALYST will contribute to metrics and diagnostics that will be integrated in Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC), particularly with regards to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and its interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), high atmospheric pressure blocking, and new precipitation metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanical and chemical properties of PVD and cold spray Cr-coatings on Zircaloy-4

In this paper, accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) cladding materials aim to improve fuel reliability and safety during accident scenarios in water-cooled reactors. These ATF cladding should also perform comparable or better than the current zirconium alloy cladding under reactor normal operating conditions. Surface-modified Zircaloy-4 was produced by depositing a protective coating of chromium by two different coating techniques, Physical Vapor Deposition (PVD) and Cold Spray (CS). The coating thickness, structure, composition, and mechanical properties of the coated Zircaloy were assessed with advanced materials characterization techniques. Results showed a strengthening effect of the Cr-coating, along with ~83% higher hardness compared to that of the Zircaloy-4 substrate. Surface topography and surface chemistry of the Cr-coated Zircaloy-4 were assessed with contact profilometry, atomic force microscopy, contact angle goniometry, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Deposited Cr-coating significantly improved surface wettability compared to the substrate Zircaloy-4. The formation of surface oxides on the coatings by prolonged exposure to ambient air showed a further increase in the hydrophobic behavior. Surface parameters and surface chemistry after flow boiling critical heat flux tests, conducted at atmospheric pressure, evidenced a slight increase in surface roughness with notable changes in wettability associated with the formation of surface oxides.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗