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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30

The Radio/Gamma-Ray Connection in Active Galactic Nuclei in the Era of the Fermi Large Area Telescope

We present a detailed statistical analysis of the correlation between radio and gamma-ray emission of the active galactic nuclei (AGNs) detected by Fermi during its first year of operation, with the largest data sets ever used for this purpose.We use both archival interferometric 8.4 GHz data (from the Very Large Array and ATCA, for the full sample of 599 sources) and concurrent single-dish 15 GHz measurements from the OwensValley RadioObservatory (OVRO, for a sub sample of 199 objects). Our unprecedentedly large sample permits us to assess with high accuracy the statistical significance of the correlation, using a surrogate data method designed to simultaneously account for common-distance bias and the effect of a limited dynamical range in the observed quantities. We find that the statistical significance of a positive correlation between the centimeter radio and the broadband (E > 100 MeV) gamma-ray energy flux is very high for the whole AGN sample, with a probability of <10(exp -7) for the correlation appearing by chance. Using the OVRO data, we find that concurrent data improve the significance of the correlation from 1.6 10(exp -6) to 9.0 10(exp -8). Our large sample size allows us to study the dependence of correlation strength and significance on specific source types and gamma-ray energy band. We find that the correlation is very significant (chance probability < 10(exp -7)) for both flat spectrum radio quasars and BL Lac objects separately; a dependence of the correlation strength on the considered gamma-ray energy band is also present, but additional data will be necessary to constrain its significance.

Ackermann, M.↗

How Engineers Really Think About Risk: A Study of JPL Engineers

The objectives of this work are: To improve risk assessment practices as used during the mission design process by JPL's concurrent engineering teams. (1) Developing effective ways to identify and assess mission risks (2) Providing a process for more effective dialog between stakeholders about the existence and severity of mission risks (3) Enabling the analysis of interactions of risks across concurrent engineering roles.

risk identification↗

High-Performance, Multi-Node File Copies and Checksums for Clustered File Systems

Modern parallel file systems achieve high performance using a variety of techniques, such as striping files across multiple disks to increase aggregate I/O bandwidth and spreading disks across multiple servers to increase aggregate interconnect bandwidth. To achieve peak performance from such systems, it is typically necessary to utilize multiple concurrent readers/writers from multiple systems to overcome various singlesystem limitations, such as number of processors and network bandwidth. The standard cp and md5sum tools of GNU coreutils found on every modern Unix/Linux system, however, utilize a single execution thread on a single CPU core of a single system, and hence cannot take full advantage of the increased performance of clustered file systems. Mcp and msum are drop-in replacements for the standard cp and md5sum programs that utilize multiple types of parallelism and other optimizations to achieve maximum copy and checksum performance on clustered file systems. Multi-threading is used to ensure that nodes are kept as busy as possible. Read/write parallelism allows individual operations of a single copy to be overlapped using asynchronous I/O. Multinode cooperation allows different nodes to take part in the same copy/checksum. Split-file processing allows multiple threads to operate concurrently on the same file. Finally, hash trees allow inherently serial checksums to be performed in parallel. Mcp and msum provide significant performance improvements over standard cp and md5sum using multiple types of parallelism and other optimizations. The total speed-ups from all improvements are significant. Mcp improves cp performance over 27x, msum improves md5sum performance almost 19x, and the combination of mcp and msum improves verified copies via cp and md5sum by almost 22x. These improvements come in the form of drop-in replacements for cp and md5sum, so are easily used and are available for download as open source software at http://mutil.sourceforge.net.

Kolano, Paul Z.↗

Next Generation X-Ray Optics: High-Resolution, Light-Weight, and Low-Cost

X-ray telescopes are essential to the future of x-ray astronomy. In this talk I will describe a comprehensive program to advance the technology for x-ray telescopes well beyond the state of the art represented by the three currently operating missions: Chandra, XMM-Newton, and Suzaku. This program will address the three key issues in making an x-ray telescope: (1) angular resolution, (2) effective area per unit mass, and (3) cost per unit effective area. The objectives of this technology program are (1) in the near term, to enable Explorer-class x-ray missions and an IXO-type mission, and (2) in the long term, to enable a flagship x-ray mission with sub-arcsecond angular resolution and multi-square-meter effective area, at an affordable cost. We pursue two approaches concurrently, emphasizing the first approach in the near term (2-5 years) and the second in the long term (4-10 years). The first approach is precision slumping of borosilicate glass sheets. By design and choice at the outset, this technique makes lightweight and low-cost mirrors. The development program will continue to improve angular resolution, to enable the production of 5-arcsecond x-ray telescopes, to support Explorer-class missions and one or more missions to supersede the original IXO mission. The second approach is precision polishing and light-weighting of single-crystal silicon mirrors. This approach benefits from two recent commercial developments: (1) the inexpensive and abundant availability of large blocks of monocrystalline silicon, and (2) revolutionary advances in deterministic, precision polishing of mirrors. By design and choice at the outset, this technique is capable of producing lightweight mirrors with sub-arcsecond angular resolution. The development program will increase the efficiency and reduce the cost of the polishing and the light-weighting processes, to enable the production of lightweight sub-arcsecond x-ray telescopes. Concurrent with the fabrication of lightweight mirror segments is the continued development and perfection of alignment and integration techniques, for incorporating individual mirror segments into a precision mirror assembly. Recently, we have been developing a technique called edge-bonding, which has achieved an accuracy to enable 10-arcsecond x-ray telescopes. Currently, we are investigating and improving the long-term alignment stability of so-bonded mirrors. Next, we shall refine this process to enable 5-arsecond x-ray telescopes. This technology development program includes all elements to demonstrate progress toward TRL-6: metrology; x-ray performance tests; coupled structural, thermal, and optical performance analysis, and environmental testing.

Zhang, William W.↗

Fault-Tolerant, Real-Time, Multi-Core Computer System

A document discusses a fault-tolerant, self-aware, low-power, multi-core computer for space missions with thousands of simple cores, achieving speed through concurrency. The proposed machine decides how to achieve concurrency in real time, rather than depending on programmers. The driving features of the system are simple hardware that is modular in the extreme, with no shared memory, and software with significant runtime reorganizing capability. The document describes a mechanism for moving ongoing computations and data that is based on a functional model of execution. Because there is no shared memory, the processor connects to its neighbors through a high-speed data link. Messages are sent to a neighbor switch, which in turn forwards that message on to its neighbor until reaching the intended destination. Except for the neighbor connections, processors are isolated and independent of each other. The processors on the periphery also connect chip-to-chip, thus building up a large processor net. There is no particular topology to the larger net, as a function at each processor allows it to forward a message in the correct direction. Some chip-to-chip connections are not necessarily nearest neighbors, providing short cuts for some of the longer physical distances. The peripheral processors also provide the connections to sensors, actuators, radios, science instruments, and other devices with which the computer system interacts.

Gostelow, Kim P.↗

Early Formulation Model-centric Engineering on NASA's Europa Mission Concept Study

The proposed Jupiter Europa Orbiter and Jupiter Ganymede Orbiter missions were formulated using current state-of-the-art MBSE facilities: - JPL's TeamX, Rapid Mission Architecting - ESA's Concurrent Design Facility - APL's ACE Concurrent Engineering Facility. When JEO became an official "pre-project" in Sep 2010, we had already developed a strong partnership with JPL's Integrated Model Centric Engineering (IMCE) initiative; decided to apply Architecting and SysML-based MBSE from the beginning, begun laying these foundations to support work in Phase A. Release of Planetary Science Decadal Survey and FY12 President's Budget in March 2011 changed the landscape. JEO reverted to being a pre-phase A study. A conscious choice was made to continue application of MBSE on the Europa Study, refocused for early formulation. This presentation describes the approach, results, and lessons.

early formulation↗

Development of a Climatology of Vertically Complete Wind Profiles from Doppler Radar Wind Profiler Systems

This paper describes in detail the QC and splicing methodology for KSC's 50- and 915-MHz DRWP measurements that generates an extensive archive of vertically complete profiles from 0.20-18.45 km. The concurrent POR from each archive extends from April 2000 to December 2009. MSFC NE applies separate but similar QC processes to each of the 50- and 915-MHz DRWP archives. DRWP literature and data examination provide the basis for developing and applying the automated and manual QC processes on both archives. Depending on the month, the QC'ed 50- and 915-MHz DRWP archives retain 52-65% and 16-30% of the possible data, respectively. The 50- and 915-MHz DRWP QC archives retain 84-91% and 85-95%, respectively, of all the available data provided that data exist in the non- QC'ed archives. Next, MSFC NE applies an algorithm to splice concurrent measurements from both DRWP sources. Last, MSFC NE generates a composite profile from the (up to) five available spliced profiles to effectively characterize boundary layer winds and to utilize all possible 915-MHz DRWP measurements at each timestamp. During a given month, roughly 23,000-32,000 complete profiles exist from 0.25-18.45 km from the composite profiles' archive, and approximately 5,000- 27,000 complete profiles exist from an archive utilizing an individual 915-MHz DRWP. One can extract a variety of profile combinations (pairs, triplets, etc.) from this sample for a given application. The sample of vertically complete DRWP wind measurements not only gives launch vehicle customers greater confidence in loads and trajectory assessments versus using balloon output, but also provides flexibility to simulate different DOL situations across applicable altitudes. In addition to increasing sample size and providing more flexibility for DOL simulations in the vehicle design phase, the spliced DRWP database provides any upcoming launch vehicle program with the capability to utilize DRWP profiles on DOL to compute vehicle steering commands, provided the program applies the procedures that this report describes to new DRWP data on DOL. Decker et al. (2015) details how SLS is proposing to use DRWP data and splicing techniques on DOL. Although automation could enhance the current DOL 50-MHz DRWP QC process and could streamline any future DOL 915-MHz DRWP QC and splicing process, the DOL community would still require manual intervention to ensure that the vehicle only uses valid profiles. If a program desires to use high spatial resolution profiles, then the algorithm could randomly add high-frequency components to the DRWP profiles. The spliced DRWP database provides lots of flexibility in how one performs DOL simulations, and the algorithms that this report provides will assist the aerospace and atmospheric communities that are interested in utilizing the DRWP.

Barbre, Robert E., Jr.↗

Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum visibility across the project. One key aspect is that the tool was built for a scenario process that accounts for stakeholder input, review, comment, and concurrence. By creating well-designed opportunities for stakeholder input and concurrence and by making the scenario content easily accessible to all project personnel, we maximize the opportunities for stakeholders to both understand and agree on the concepts for how their mission is to be carried out.

Boyles, Carole A.↗

Radioisotope Power Systems Reference Book for Mission Designers and Planners

The RPS Program's Program Planning and Assessment (PPA) Office commissioned the Mission Analysis team to develop the Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Reference Book for Mission Planners and Designers to define a baseline of RPS technology capabilities with specific emphasis on performance parameters and technology readiness. The main objective of this book is to provide RPS technology information that could be utilized by future mission concept studies and concurrent engineering practices. A progress summary from the major branches of RPS technology research provides mission analysis teams with a vital tool for assessing the RPS trade space, and provides concurrent engineering centers with a consistent set of guidelines for RPS performance characteristics. This book will be iterated when substantial new information becomes available to ensure continued relevance, serving as one of the cornerstone products of the RPS PPA Office. This book updates the original 2011 internal document, using data from the relevant publicly released RPS technology references and consultations with RPS technologists. Each performance parameter and RPS product subsection has been reviewed and cleared by at least one subject matter representative. A virtual workshop was held to reach consensus on the scope and contents of the book, and the definitions and assumptions that should be used. The subject matter experts then reviewed and updated the appropriate sections of the book. The RPS Mission Analysis Team then performed further updates and crosschecked the book for consistency. Finally, a second virtual workshop was held to ensure all subject matter experts and stakeholders concurred on the contents.

Lee, Young↗

Results of Large-Scale Spacecraft Flammability Tests

For the first time, a large-scale fire was intentionally set inside a spacecraft while in orbit. Testing in low gravity aboard spacecraft had been limited to samples of modest size: for thin fuels the longest samples burned were around 15 cm in length and thick fuel samples have been even smaller. This is despite the fact that fire is a catastrophic hazard for spaceflight and the spread and growth of a fire, combined with its interactions with the vehicle cannot be expected to scale linearly. While every type of occupied structure on earth has been the subject of full scale fire testing, this had never been attempted in space owing to the complexity, cost, risk and absence of a safe location. Thus, there is a gap in knowledge of fire behavior in spacecraft. The recent utilization of large, unmanned, resupply craft has provided the needed capability: a habitable but unoccupied spacecraft in low earth orbit. One such vehicle was used to study the flame spread over a 94 x 40.6 cm thin charring solid (fiberglasscotton fabric). The sample was an order of magnitude larger than anything studied to date in microgravity and was of sufficient scale that it consumed 1.5 of the available oxygen. The experiment which is called Saffire consisted of two tests, forward or concurrent flame spread (with the direction of flow) and opposed flame spread (against the direction of flow). The average forced air speed was 20 cms. For the concurrent flame spread test, the flame size remained constrained after the ignition transient, which is not the case in 1-g. These results were qualitatively different from those on earth where an upward-spreading flame on a sample of this size accelerates and grows. In addition, a curious effect of the chamber size is noted. Compared to previous microgravity work in smaller tunnels, the flame in the larger tunnel spread more slowly, even for a wider sample. This is attributed to the effect of flow acceleration in the smaller tunnels as a result of hot gas expansion. These results clearly demonstrate the unique features of purely forced flow in microgravity on flame spread, the dependence of flame behavior on the scale of the experiment, and the importance of full-scale testing for spacecraft fire safety.

microgravity↗

Utilizing the Precessing Orbit of TRMM to Produce Hourly Corrections of Geostationary Infrared Imager Data with the VIRS Sensor

Accurate characterization of the Earth's radiant energy is critical for many climate monitoring and weather forecasting applications. For example, groups at the NASA Langley Research Center rely on stable visible- and infrared-channel calibrations in order to understand the temporal/spatial distribution of hazardous storms, as determined from an automated overshooting convective top detection algorithm. Therefore, in order to facilitate reliable, climate-quality retrievals, it is important that consistent calibration coefficients across satellite platforms are made available to the remote sensing community, and that calibration anomalies are recognized and mitigated. One such anomaly is the infrared imager brightness temperature (BT) drift that occurs for some Geostationary Earth Orbit satellite (GEOsat) instruments near local midnight. Currently the Global Space-Based Inter-Calibration System (GSICS) community uses the hyperspectral Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) sensor as a common reference to uniformly calibrate GEOsat IR imagers. However, the combination of IASI, which has a 21:30 local equator crossing time (LECT), and hyperspectral Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS; 01:30 LECT) observations are unable to completely resolve the GEOsat midnight BT bias. The precessing orbit of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS), however, allows sampling of all local hours every 46 days. Thus, VIRS has the capability to quantify the BT midnight effect observed in concurrent GEOsat imagers. First, the VIRS IR measurements are evaluated for long-term temporal stability between 2002 and 2012 by inter-calibrating with Aqua-MODIS. Second, the VIRS IR measurements are assessed for diurnal stability by inter-calibrating with Meteosat-9 (Met-9), a spin-stabilized GEOsat imager that does not manifest any diurnal dependency. In this case, the Met-9 IR imager is first adjusted with the official GSICS calibration coefficients. Then VIRS is used as a diurnal calibration reference transfer to produce hourly corrections of GEOsat IR imager BT. For the 9 three-axis stabilized GEO imagers concurrent with VIRS, the midnight effect increased the BT on average by 0.5 K (11 microns) and 0.4 K (12 microns), with a peak at approx.01:00 local time. As expected, the spin-stabilized GEOsats revealed a smaller diurnal temperature cycle (mostly < 0.2 K) with inconsistent peak hours.

Scarino, Benjamin↗

Three Years of Atmospheric Characterization at Ka/Q-band with the NASA/POLIMI Alphasat Receiver in Milan, Italy

Since June of 2014, NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) and the Politecnico di Milano (POLIMI) have jointly conducted a propagation campaign within the framework of the Alphasat propagation experiment through a propagation terminal at the POLIMI campus in Milan, Italy. The terminal utilizes the 20 GHz and 40 GHz beacons broadcast by the Aldo Paraboni Technology Demonstration Payload (TDP #5), and consists of dual coherent Ka- and Q-band beacon receivers. These provide a direct measurement of the signal attenuation and scintillation and are complemented by concurrent weather instrumentation that provides measurements of the atmospheric conditions at the receiver. The primary goal of these measurements is to improve model predictions of communication system performance at 40 GHz. Over three years of concurrent measurements have now been collected from the terminal, and herein we present a statistical analysis of the results thus far, as well as a summary of recent hardware upgrades to the receivers that were made in September 2017.

Radio Transmission↗

Three Years of Atmospheric Characterization at Ka/Q-band with the NASA/POLIMI Alphasat Receiver in Milan, Italy

Since June of 2014, NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) and the Politecnico di Milano (POLIMI) have jointly conducted a propagation campaign within the framework of the Alphasat propagation experiment through a propagation terminal at the POLIMI campus in Milan, Italy. The terminal utilizes the 20 GHz and 40 GHz beacons broadcast by the Aldo Paraboni Technology Demonstration Payload (TDP #5), and consists of dual coherent Ka- and Q-band beacon receivers. These provide a direct measurement of the signal attenuation and scintillation and are complemented by concurrent weather instrumentation that provides measurements of the atmospheric conditions at the receiver. The primary goal of these measurements is to improve model predictions of communication system performance at 40 GHz. Over three years of concurrent measurements have now been collected from the terminal, and herein we present a statistical analysis of the results thus far, as well as a summary of recent hardware upgrades to the receivers that were made in September 2017.

Radio Transmission↗

Sea Surface Salinity Distribution in the Southern Ocean as Observed from Space

Large-scale spatial and temporal variabilities of sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Southern Ocean from 2011 to 2017 were studied using products derived from microwave sensors on board Aquarius, Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) satellites. Four products, three from Aquarius and one from SMOS, were evaluated and shown to be generally consistent within 0.3 to 0.6 psu and agree favorably with in situ measurements. However, although the Aquarius products show consistent seasonality of SSS with high values of 34.45 psu in October and low values of 33.40 psu in May, theSMOS and SMAP products lack such seasonal variations. This may be caused by larger uncertainties in the SMOS and SMAP data due in part to the lack of concurrent scatterometer measurements that is used to correct for roughness effects. The four products provide similar spatial distributions of SSS with root mean square difference from 0.25 to 0.58 psu. Differences among Aquarius products are mainly due to varying salinity retrieval algorithms, smoothing, and masking of sea ice, while the SMOS product showed the highest SSS deviation that is likely due to the bias adjustment done on the data set. Our analyses show that SSS in the Southern Ocean region has significant meridional variations with the lowest SSS near the ice edge and highest at lower latitudes. The SSS is also lowest in summer indicating the predominant influence of sea ice and glacial melt, but it stays low near ice edges even during the growth season. Salinity together with temperature is the key parameters that control the state and circulation of the World's oceans. The large‐scale distribution of the sea surface salinity of the Southern Ocean is quantified for the first time using Aquarius, Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity, and Soil Moisture Active and Passive satellite microwave data. Seasonal and interannual changes in the distribution as affected by the sea ice cover, surface temperature, and precipitation are evaluated. Comparative studies were done, using four different products that are publicly available, in conjunction with in situ observations to gain insights into the true nature of the distribution and how consistently the sea surface salinity is depicted by the different products. There are general consistencies in the products, and discrepancies are attributed to different algorithms, smoothing techniques, and sea ice masking. Aquarius data are shown to have higher accuracy than Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity and Soil Moisture Active and Passive products in part because of having concurrent scatterometer that provides accurate correction to roughness effects.

Garcia-Eidell, Cynthia↗

NASA Station Explorer for X-Ray Timing and Navigation Technology (SEXTANT) Mission Operations Architecture

"The Station Explorer for X-Ray Timing and Navigation (SEXTANT) mission is a technology demonstrationenhancement to the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) mission, a NASA AstrophysicsExplorer Mission of Opportunity to the International Space Station (ISS) that was launched in June of 2017.The NICER instrument is a precision pointing X-ray telescope that provides measurements of neutron stars,which the SEXTANT mission uses to perform autonomous onboard X-ray Pulsar Navigation (XNAV) by usingmilli-second pulsars (MSPs), a category of neutron stars, as timing sources for navigation. By comparing thedetected time of arrival of X-ray photons to a reference of expected pulsar lightcurve timing models, one caninfer a range and range rate measurement based on light time delay. Since both timing and orientationinformation comes from a celestial source, this technology could provide a GPS-like navigation capabilityavailable throughout our Solar System and beyond. Applications that XNAV can support include outer planetand interstellar missions, manned missions, libration orbit missions, and current infrastructure such as the DeepSpace Network (DSN). The SEXTANT team successfully completed a rst demonstration of in-space andautonomous XNAV in November 2017. NICER and SEXTANT have separate teams, with NICER being theprimary team with its own science objectives. Operational modes for both missions must have concurrent andindependent components as well as an integrated ground system. Within this joint mission pro le, SEXTANToperations requires an infrastructure and cadence that is exible to handle concurrent science operations fromthe NICER team, independent autonomous navigation demonstrations, and events within the extensive ISSoperations environment. This paper rst details the infrastructure implemented and its concept of operations.It then describes the operations for the SEXTANT demonstration and lessons learned."

Yu, Wayne H.↗

The Missing Economic Risks in Assessments of Climate Change Impacts

Economic assessments of the potential future risks of climate change have been omitting or grossly underestimating many of the most serious consequences for lives and livelihoods because these risks are difficult to quantify precisely and lie outside of human experience. Political and business leaders need to understand the scale of these ‘missing risks’ because they could have drastic and potentially catastrophic impacts on citizens, communities and companies. Scientists are growing in confidence about the evidence for the largest potential impacts of climate change and the rising probability that major thresholds in the Earth’s climate system will be breached as global mean surface temperature rises, particularly if warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial level. These impacts include: (1) Destabilisation of ice sheets and glaciers and consequent sea level rise. (2) Stronger tropical cyclones. (3) Extreme heat impacts. (4) More frequent and intense floods and droughts. (5) Disruptions to oceanic and atmospheric circulation. (6) Destruction of biodiversity and collapse of ecosystems. Many of these impacts will grow and occur concurrently across the world as global temperature climbs. Some of these impacts involve thresholds in the climate system beyond which major impacts accelerate, or become irreversible and unstoppable. When a threshold is breached, it might cause one or more other thresholds to be exceeded as well, leading to a cascade of impacts. Many of these impacts could exceed the capacity of human populations to adapt, and would significantly affect and disrupt the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions, if not billions, of people worldwide. These impacts would also undermine economic growth and development, exacerbate poverty and destabilise communities. Economic assessments fail to take account of the potential for large concurrent impacts across the world that would cause mass migration, displacement and conflict, with huge loss of life. Economic assessments that are expressed solely in terms of effects on output (e.g. gross domestic product), or that only extrapolate from past experience, or that use inappropriate discounting, do not provide a clear indication of the potential risks to lives and livelihoods. It is likely that there are additional risks that we are not yet anticipating simply because scientists have not yet detected their possibility, as we have entered a period of climate change that is unprecedented in human history. Some advances are being made in improving economic assessments of climate change impacts but much more progress is required if assessments are to offer reliable guidance for political and business leaders on the biggest risks. The lack of firm quantifications is not a reason to ignore these risks, and when the missing risks are taken into account, the case for strong and urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions becomes even more compelling.

DeFries, Ruth↗

Parallel Anisotropic Unstructured Grid Adaptation

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has become critical to the design and analysis of aerospace vehicles. Parallel grid adaptation that resolves multiple scales with anisotropy is identified as one of the challenges in the CFD Vision 2030 Study to increase the capacity and capability of CFD simulation. The Study also cautions that computer architectures are undergoing a radical change and dramatic increases in algorithm concurrency will be required to exploit full performance. This paper reviews four different methods to parallel anisotropic grid generation. They cover both ends of the spectrum: (i) using existing state-of-the-art software optimized for a single core and modifying it for parallel platforms and (ii) designing and implementing scalable software with incomplete, but rapidly maturating functionality. A brief overview for each grid adaptation system is presented in the context of a telescopic approach for multilevel concurrency. These methods employ different approaches to enable parallel execution, which provides a unique opportunity to illustrate the relative behavior of each approach. Qualitative and quantitative metric evaluations are used to draw lessons for future developments in this critical area for parallel CFD simulation.

Tsolakis, Christos↗

Plasmaspheric Plume Turbulence: Signature of an Electrostatic Corotation Convection Shear-Layer Instability

As demonstrated by IMAGE-EUV observations, plasmaspheric drainage plumes are a common feature emanating from the plasmasphere during periods of enhanced convection. Concurrent IMAGE-EUV and LANL-MPA observations reveal that plasmaspheric plumes are not a uniform density structure that extends out to geosynchronous orbit and beyond. Instead, in–situ observations reveal a large spatial-scale structure populated by small-scale density structures suggestive of the presence of a turbulent process. Here, we investigate the occurrence and nature of plasmaspheric drainage plumes as observed by concurrent EUV-MPA observations, as well as explore the possibility that the in–situ observed small-scale density structures are the signature of an instability produced by the sheared velocity found within the plasmaspheric layers separating the corotation of the main plasmasphere from the convection-driven flow generating the plume. Particle-in-cell simulations indicate that the generation of shear-flow driven instabilities is possible under plasmaspheric plasma conditions. The initial results of these simulations indicate that the plasmaspheric instabilities generated are electrostatic in nature, consist with in–situ plume observations.

Mark L Adrian↗