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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Model Advancements to Enable Impact Analysis of Climate Change on Streamflow Temperature

With support from the Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed new tools that incorporate cutting-edge climate and hydrological science capabilities to assess the potential long-term impacts of future climate conditions on unregulated streamflow and water temperature within watershed-river-reservoir systems. The objectives of this project were achieved by enhancing key hydrologic and hydrodynamic models and transferring them to a high-performance computing environment to provide a high-spatiotemporal resolution, multi-scale modeling framework. The new modeling framework has the potential to quantify risks related climate change impacts on runoff, unregulated streamflow, and water temperature. Initial development and demonstration of the modeling framework was conducted under historical and future climate conditions in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwest and the Connecticut River Basin in New England.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The security implications of global climate change. Workshop summary

The Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled, “The Security Implications of Global Climate Change” on January 5-7, 2021, convened virtually due to the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic. The workshop included participants from scientific/technical, defense, diplomacy, advocacy, and academic communities in the United States as well as from U.S. allies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2004

Oceanic Tidal Mixing As a Contributor to Milankovitch-scale Climate Change

We propose that changes in the magnitude of oceanic tidal mixing on long time scales is an important, but previously unrecognized, contributor to global climate change. it is well known that Earth's orbital and rotational state changes significantly on 10(exp 4)-10(exp 5) year time scales, and that this influences the spatial and temporal pattern of incident radiation. It is widely supposed that climatic variations on these same time scales are, in large part, a response of the ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere system to this radiative forcing. Our proposal is that variations in the luni-solar tidal potential, induced by these same orbital and rotational variations, influences oceanic mixing and thus modulates meridional heat transport, by amounts which are competitive with the radiative forcing. There are some obvious differences between tidal potential and insolation. First is that the Sun and Moon both contribute to tides, whereas the radiation is entirely of solar origin. Second is that the Earth is transparent to gravity but opaque to radiation. Clipping associated with this opacity makes the radiation pattern temporal spectrum rather more complex than the tidal spectrum. A third point is that solar radiation directly delivers energy to Earth's surface whereas tidal mixing will only expedite lateral transport of heat in association with oceanic thermohaline circulation. The diurnal average insolation pattern is best parameterized via a Fourier series in time of year and Legendre polynomials in sine of latitude. Our present focus will be on the annual average terms. The Legendre degree n=0 term describes the global average insolation, and is nearly constant. The degree n=l term describes differences between northern and southern hemispheres, and the annual mean is zero. The degree n=2 term is the main contributor to the equator to pole variations, and varies with obliquity and orbital eccentricity, with the obliquity variation dominating. The lowest order decomposition of the tidal potential recognizes 3 constituents: semi-diurnal, diurnal, and long period, with solar and lunar contributions to each. Our present focus will be on long term variations in the mean square amplitude of the semi-diurnal constituent, with averaging over all the short period variations. For the solar tide that includes the day and year. For the lunar tide it includes the day, month, year, and the apsidal (8.85 year) and nodal (18.6 year) periods. We present calculations of the variations in radiative and tidal forcing for the past 3 million years. The two signals are quite similar. Both vary by approximately 1% of their respective mean values, are dominated by obliquity variations, and exhibit only secondary influence from orbital eccentricity.

Munk, Walter↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ten questions on future and extreme weather data for building simulation and analysis in a changing climate

Weather plays a significant role in building operations as it directly influences HVAC loads and in turn the building energy and thermal performance. In a changing climate, future trends and extreme weather events become critical concerns in the global building decarbonization and clean energy transition. This paper aims to address ten key questions concerning extreme and future weather data for building applications, and more importantly to identify research gaps and guide the curation and selection of future and extreme weather data for use in building performance simulation and assessment. The paper intends to inform architects and engineers, operators, owners, policy makers, and other stakeholders on considering the impacts of future and extreme weather data and adopting strategies for selecting and applying this data in various use cases related to building design, operation, and retrofit for energy efficiency, electrification, and climate resilience.

Yan, Da↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Deriving Climate Change Signal from Hyperspectral Sounders Using Spectral Fingerprinting Method

Hyperspectral observations from satellite-based sensors provide high information content for the Earth’s atmospheric temperature, water vapor and trace gas vertical profiles. We have developed a radiometrically consistent spectral fingerprinting method to derive climate change signals from Aqua AIRS/AMSU and S-NPP CrIS/ATMS data. The climate variables include temperature and water vapor profiles, cloud, trace gases, and surface skin temperature. The radiative kernels obtained via a single field of view physical retrieval algorithm under all-sky conditions. A key component to this work is a Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM). It is 4 orders of magnitude faster than a line-by-line radiative transfer model while keeping a similar accuracy (0.03 K RMS errors with close to zero bias). The PCRTM includes multiple scattering of clouds and non-thermodynamics equilibrium of CO2 in the RT calculations. Instead of quantifying the radiometric differences between AIRS/AMSU and CrIS/ATMS measurements directly using Simultaneous Nadir Overpass (SNO) or Double Difference Technique (DDT), we use the radiometric consistent fingerprinting scheme to derive two sets of space-time averaged anomalies from the Level 1 data of AIRS/AMSU and CrIS/ATMS. The derived anomalies in geophysical space will form a long-term, stable, and continuous climate data record. We can further infer the causes of any offset or drift by studying the differences between two overlapping data sets. For example, the offset in surface skin temperature anomaly time series will most likely caused by the Blackbody temperature calibration errors of the sounder instruments.

climate↗
NASA NTRS1993

Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production

A process-based model was used to estimate global patterns of net primary production and soil nitrogen cycling for contemporary climate conditions and current atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over half of the global annual net primary production was estimated to occur in the tropics, with most of the production attributable to tropical evergreen forest. The effects of CO2 doubling and associated climate changes were also explored. The responses in tropical and dry temperate ecosystems were dominated by CO2, but those in northern and moist temperate ecosystems reflected the effects of temperature on nitrogen availability.

Melillo, Jerry M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Change Risks to Freshwater Subsistence Fisheries in Arctic Alaska: Insights and Uncertainty from Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus

Arctic freshwater ecosystems and fish populations are largely shaped by seasonal and long-term watershed hydrology. In this paper, we hypothesize how changing air temperature and precipitation will alter freeze and thaw processes, hydrology, and instream habitat to assess potential indirect effects, such as the change to the foraging and behavioral ecology, on Arctic fishes, using Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus as an indicator species. Climate change is expected to continue to alter hydrologic pathways, flow regimes, and, therefore, habitat suitability, connectivity, and availability for fishes. Warming and lengthening of the growing season will likely increase fish growth rates; however, the exceedance of threshold stream temperatures will likely increase physiological stress and alter life histories. We expect these changes to have mixed effects on Arctic subsistence fishes and fisheries. Management and conservation approaches focused on preserving the processes that create heterogeneity in aquatic habitats, genes, and communities will help maintain the resilience of Broad Whitefish and other important subsistence fisheries. Long-term effects are uncertain, so filling scientific knowledge gaps, such as identifying important habitats or increasing knowledge of abiotic variables in priority watersheds, is key to understanding and potentially mitigating likely impacts to Arctic fishes in a rapidly changing landscape.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increased Asian Aerosols Contribute to Historical Climate Change in Antarctica

Since the 1980s, anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) have decreased in North America and Europe, while they have continued to increase in East and South Asia. Meanwhile, climate change in Antarctica has exhibited a zonally asymmetric pattern. However, few studies have linked the two. In this study, we conduct fully coupled model experiments and find that Antarctica responds more significantly to Asian AAs than to those from North America and Europe. Increased Asian AAs induce a tri‐polar anomaly pattern in Antarctica via a poleward propagating Rossby wave train. This pattern is characterized by warmer temperature and less sea ice in the Amundsen‐Bellingshausen Seas, and cooler temperature and more sea ice in regions on its both flanks. Our findings highlight the importance of remote forcing, such as AAs in the Northern Hemisphere, in driving historical changes in Antarctica through atmospheric teleconnection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Implications of climate change impacts for emission and land use scenario development

Scenarios of future emissions and land use produced by integrated assessment models have traditionally been developed without accounting for how climate change impacts could affect the emissions and land use trajectories themselves. This omission risks skewing our assessments of the plausible range of future emission pathways and associated Earth system changes. Beyond the salience for emission scenario development, a better integrated representation of human and Earth system changes and feedbacks would enable better anticipation of the implications of alternative socio-economic development pathways. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to investigate whether endogenizing several impacts when generating its baseline emission scenario is warranted. We do so by comparing the emissions and land use change that result from the baseline scenario with and without impacts, where impacts are implemented as exogenous changes to water availability, crop and labor productivity, and energy demand and supply. Our results indicate that the effect on global emissions leads to less than 0.1 °C increase in warming by 2100 and therefore do not support endogenizing impacts. This conclusion is conditional on our modeling framework and the specific impact channels represented but is consistent with other studies that have addressed the magnitude of feedbacks by implementing a two-way coupling. However, we do find regional impacts indicating that local economies and well-being measures may be affected significantly.

climate impacts↗
NASA NTRS1988

Long-term climate change and the geochemical cycle of carbon

The response of the coupled climate-geochemical system to changes in paleography is examined in terms of the biogeochemical carbon cycle. The simple, zonally averaged energy balance climate model combined with a geochemical carbon cycle model, which was developed to study climate changes, is described. The effects of latitudinal distributions of the continents on the carbon cycle are investigated, and the global silicate weathering rate as a function of latitude is measured. It is observed that a concentration of land area at high altitudes results in a high CO2 partial pressure and a high global average temperature, and for land at low latitudes a cold globe and ice are detected. It is noted that the CO2 greenhouse feedback effect is potentially strong and has a stabilizing effect on the climate system.

Marshall, Hal G.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Radiative Forcing by Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases: Estimates from Climate Models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

The radiative effects from increased concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) represent the most significant and best understood anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. The most comprehensive tools for simulating past and future climates influenced by WMGHGs are fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). Because of the importance of WMGHGs as forcing agents it is essential that AOGCMs compute the radiative forcing by these gases as accurately as possible. We present the results of a radiative transfer model intercomparison between the forcings computed by the radiative parameterizations of AOGCMs and by benchmark line-by-line (LBL) codes. The comparison is focused on forcing by CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC-11, CFC-12, and the increased H2O expected in warmer climates. The models included in the intercomparison include several LBL codes and most of the global models submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In general, the LBL models are in excellent agreement with each other. However, in many cases, there are substantial discrepancies among the AOGCMs and between the AOGCMs and LBL codes. In some cases this is because the AOGCMs neglect particular absorbers, in particular the near-infrared effects of CH4 and N2O, while in others it is due to the methods for modeling the radiative processes. The biases in the AOGCM forcings are generally largest at the surface level. We quantify these differences and discuss the implications for interpreting variations in forcing and response across the multimodel ensemble of AOGCM simulations assembled for the IPCC AR4.

Collins, W. D.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Global hotspots of particulate organic carbon losses under climate change

Soil organic carbon (SOC) comprises particulate (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC), which differ in formation, stabilization, and loss mechanisms. While the current global distribution of POC and MAOC is characterized, their vulnerability under future climate scenarios remains unclear. Using 3284 topsoil (0-30 cm) observations from six continents, we identify high-latitude soils as global hotspots of SOC vulnerability under shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Under a high-emission scenario (SSP585), high-latitude soils are projected to lose substantial POC by 2100, accounting for about 81 ± 10% of total SOC losses. These declines are driven by the high proportion of SOC stored as POC (f POC ) and its high temperature sensitivity. We show that f POC is a robust indicator of SOC vulnerability to climate change. Globally, the projected POC decline corresponds to a cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) release of 81.34 Pg CO 2 -equivalent by 2100, highlighting the importance of preserving POC to mitigate climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

Mars - The regolith-atmosphere-cap system and climate change

A model is derived for the prediction of the Martian regolith-atmosphere-cap CO2 regime's behavior, as well as for the description of the roly of the regime in climate change, through descriptions of the time-temperature histories of 90 regolith 'chunks' on a latitude-depth grid. The influence of differences in regolith adsorption laws for basalt and clay, and the influence of variations in regolith depth with (1) latitude, (2) regolith thermal diffusivity, and (3) total exchangeable CO2 inventory on predicted variations in atmospheric pressure and cap mass, are examined. It is found that the atmosphere acts as a low capacity conduit between two reservoirs through which 10-100 times the current atmospheric mass of CO2 flows. The exchange between the reservoirs is driven by obliquity variations, with the polar cap the dominant CO2 sink at low obliquity and the regolith dominating at high obliquity.

Fanale, F. P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stomatal behaviour moderates the water cost of CO 2 acquisition for 21 boreal and temperate species under experimental climate change

Abstract The linkage of stomatal behaviour with photosynthesis is critical to understanding water and carbon cycles under global change. The relationship of stomatal conductance (g s ) and CO 2 assimilation (A net ) across a range of environmental contexts, as represented in the model parameter (g 1 ), has served as a proxy of the marginal water cost of carbon acquisition. We useg 1 to assess species differences in stomatal behaviour to a decade of open‐air experimental climate change manipulations, asking whether generalisable patterns exist across species and climate contexts.A net ‐g s measurements (17 727) for 21 boreal and temperate tree species under ambient and +3.3°C warming, and ambient and ~40% summer rainfall reduction, provided >2700 estimates ofg 1 . Warming and/or reduced rainfall treatments both loweredg 1 because those treatments resulted in lower soil moisture and because stomatal behaviour changed more in warming when soil moisture was low. Species tended to respond similarly, although, in species from warmer and drier habitats, g 1 tended to be slightly higher and to be the least sensitive to the decrease in soil water. Overall, both warming and rainfall reduction consistently made stomatal behaviour more conservative in terms of water loss per unit carbon gain across 21 species and a decade of experimental observation.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model-based analysis of solute transport and potential carbon mineralization in the active layer of a hillslope underlain by permafrost with seasonal variability and climate change

Permafrost carbon, stored in frozen organic matter across vast Arctic and sub-Arctic regions, represents a substantial and increasingly vulnerable carbon reservoir. As global temperatures rise, the accelerated thawing of permafrost releases greenhouse gases, exacerbating climate change. However, freshly thawed permafrost carbon may also experience lateral transport by groundwater flow to surface water recipients such as rivers and lakes, increasing the terrestrial-to-aquatic transfer of permafrost carbon. Mobilization and subsurface transport mechanisms are poorly understood and not accounted for in global climate models, leading to high uncertainties in the predictions of the permafrost carbon feedback. Here, we focus on a hillslope in Endalen Valley, Svalbard, as a representative example of a high-Arctic hillslope underlain by continuous permafrost. We analyze solute transport in the form of a non-reactive tracer representing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) using a physics-based numerical model with the objective to study governing cryotic and hydrodynamic transport mechanisms relevant for warming permafrost regions. We first analyze transport times for DOC pools at different locations within the active layer under present-day climatic conditions and proceed to study susceptibility for deeper ancient carbon release in the upper permafrost due to thaw under different warming scenarios. Results suggest that DOC in the active layer near the permafrost table experiences rapid lateral transport upon thaw due to saturated conditions and lateral flow, while DOC close to the ground surface experiences slower transport due to flow in unsaturated soil. Deeper permafrost carbon release exhibits vastly different transport behaviors depending on warming and thaw rate. Gradual warming leads to small fractions of DOC being mobilized every year, while the majority moves vertically through percolation and cryosuction. Abrupt thaw resulting from a single very warm year leads to faster lateral transport times, similar to active layer DOC released in saturated conditions. Lastly, we analyze the potential susceptibility of DOC to mineralization to CO 2 prior to export due to soil moisture and temperature conditions. We find that high liquid saturation during transport coincides with very low mineralization rates and potentially inhibits mineralization into CO 2 before export. Overall, the results highlight the importance of subsurface hydrologic and thermal conditions for the retention and lateral export of permafrost carbon by subsurface flow.

Hamm, Alexandra [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden)] (ORCID:↗
DOE OSTI2023

Future climate change in the Agulhas system and its associated impact on South African rainfall

South African climate variability has been linked to changes in both the Agulhas system and external forcing (i.e. CO 2 and ozone). We analysed future climate change in the Agulhas system volume transport and its associated impacts on South Africa’s precipitation using the Community Climate System Model version 4 as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5. Output from one historical and three future greenhouse gas emission scenarios were examined to project various climate storylines. We found that the Agulhas Current volume transport decreases across all three scenarios and that the current displays a strong baroclinic component with an increase in transport at the surface and decrease at intermediate depths. Agulhas leakage was found to increase with historical emissions. Additionally, an east-west dipole pattern for convective precipitation was found over South Africa, with an increase over the eastern region related to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and a decrease in the western region linked to the location of Hadley cell edge latitude. Moving into the 21st century, future predictions in regional climate variability are shown to be dependent on the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions and are extremely important for South Africa, a region prone to drought and flooding and home to a large population dependent on rain-fed agriculture.Significance:Future climate variability in the Agulhas system and South African region is heavily dependent on changes in external forcing.The Agulhas Current volume transport decreases as the greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase and a strong baroclinic component is found with an increase in transport at the surface and a decrease at the intermediate depths.A strong east-west dipole precipitation pattern is found over South Africa with the increase in the eastern region related to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions and the decrease in the western region related to the location of the Hadley cell edge latitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

2022 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan Summary

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL, or the Laboratory) produced a Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan (VARP) following Department of Energy (DOE) Guidance to assess and manage climate change related risks to the Laboratory’s assets and operations. This is a condensed summary of the Laboratory’s 2022 VARP – the full version of the document is not publicly available at this time. The VARP was led by the Pollution Prevention (P2) Program in the Environmental Protection and Compliance Division (EPC-DO) and covers the entirety of the 36-square-mile LANL site in Los Alamos, New Mexico. A Steering Committee, composed of representatives from the three main Laboratory Directorates and the Los Alamos Field Office, identified real property Critical Assets based on their Mission Dependency Index (MDI) scores. LANL used MDI scores of 70 and above, which are considered Mission-Critical, to generate a list of 141 Critical Asset facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗