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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Quantifying the Negative Feedback of Vegetation to Greenhouse Warming: A Modeling Approach

Several climate models indicate that in a 2 x CO2 environment, temperature and precipitation would increase and runoff would increase faster than precipitation. These models, however, did not allow the vegetation to increase its leaf density as a response to the physiological effects of increased CO2 and consequent changes in climate. Other assessments included these interactions but did not account for the vegetation down-regulation to reduce plant's photosynthetic activity and as such resulted in a weak vegetation negative response. When we combine these interactions in climate simulations with 2 x CO2, the associated increase in precipitation contributes primarily to increase evapotranspiration rather than surface runoff, consistent with observations, and results in an additional cooling effect not fully accounted for in previous simulations with elevated CO2. By accelerating the water cycle, this feedback slows but does not alleviate the projected warming, reducing the land surface warming by 0.6 C. Compared to previous studies, these results imply that long term negative feedback from CO2-induced increases in vegetation density could reduce temperature following a stabilization of CO2 concentration.

Bounous, L.↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Large-scale Climate Features and Climate Sensitivity

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project↗
DOE OSTI2024

Subpolar North Atlantic Mean State Affects the Response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP6 Models

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays an important role in climate, transporting heat and salt to the subpolar North Atlantic. The AMOC’s variability is sensitive to atmospheric forcing, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Because AMOC observations are short, climate models are a valuable tool to study the AMOC’s variability. Yet, there are known issues with climate models, like uncertainties and systematic biases. To investigate this, preindustrial control experiments from models participating in the phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are evaluated. There is a large, but correlated, spread in the models’ subpolar gyre mean surface temperature and salinity. By splitting models into groups of either a warm–salty or cold–fresh subpolar gyre, it is shown that warm–salty models have a lower sea ice cover in the Labrador Sea and, hence, enable a larger heat loss during a positive NAO. Stratification in the Labrador Sea is also weaker in warm–salty models, such that the larger NAO-related heat loss can also affect greater depths. As a result, subsurface density anomalies are much stronger in the warm–salty models than in those that tend to be cold and fresh. As these anomalies propagate southward along the western boundary, they establish a zonal density gradient anomaly that promotes a stronger delayed AMOC response to the NAO in the warm–salty models. These findings demonstrate how model mean state errors are linked across variables and affect variability, emphasizing the need for improvement of the subpolar North Atlantic mean states in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

The DeepMIP Contribution to PMIP4: Experimental Design for Model Simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0)

Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( greater than 800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene (approximately 50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4(times) CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP - the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.

climate models↗
NASA NTRS2016

Hemispheric Differences in Tropical Lower Stratospheric Transport and Tracers Annual Cycle

Transport of long-lived tracers (such as O, CO, and N O) in the lower stratosphere largely determines the composition of the entire stratosphere. Stratospheric transport includes the mean residual circulation (with air rising in the tropics and sinking in the polar and middle latitudes), plus two-way isentropic (quasi-horizontal) mixing by eddies. However, the relative importance of two transport components remains uncertain. Previous studies quantified the relative role of these processes based on tropics-wide average characteristics under common assumption of well-mixed tropics. However, multiple instruments provide us with evidence that show significant differences in the seasonal cycle of ozone between the Northern (0-20N) and Southern (0-20S) tropical (NT and ST respectively) lower stratosphere. In this study we investigate these differences in tracer seasonality and quantify transport processes affecting tracers annual cycle amplitude using simulations from Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and compare them to observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite. We detect the observed contrast between the ST and NT in GEOSCCM and WACCM: annual cycle in ozone and other chemical tracers is larger in the NT than in the ST but opposite is true for the annual cycle in vertical advection. Ozone budgets in the models, analyzed based on the Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM) framework, demonstrate a major role of quasi-horizontal mixing vertical advection in determining the NTST ozone distribution and behavior. Analysis of zonal variations in the NT and ST ozone annual cycles further suggests important role of North American and Asian Summer Monsoons (associated with strong isentropic mixing) on the lower stratospheric ozone in the NT. Furthermore, multi model comparison shows that most CCMs reproduce the observed characteristic of ozone annual cycle quite well. Thus, latitudinal variations within the tropics have to be considered in order to understand the balance between upwelling and quasi- horizontal mixing in the tropical lower stratosphere and the paradigm of well mixed tropics has to be reconsidered.

Chemistry-Climate Models↗
NASA NTRS1982

Models of climate cycles recorded in Martian polar layered deposits

Mars polar deposit accumulation models are used to predict the sequences of layer thicknesses. Continuous deposition and climate-modulated deposition models are compared, and two physical models of the latter type are developed in detail. In addition to examining the sensitivity of the sequence of layer thicknesses to model type and threshold, parallels with terrestrial ocean margin deposition are drawn with a view to better understanding the effects of a prolonged interval of nondeposition on stratigraphy and the modification of the central polar stratigraphy by scarp margin effects. When the threshold for deposition lies in the midrange with respect to excursions of the climate function, deposition occurs about half of the time, and there is only a slight modulation of the layer thickness. When the threshold for deposition is high, deposition occurs only a small fraction of the total time, and groups of layers form which are separated from other groups by long periods of nondeposition.

Cutts, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of ACCMIP Outgoing Longwave Radiation from Tropospheric Ozone Using TES Satellite Observations.

We use simultaneous observations of tropospheric ozone and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) sensitivity to tropospheric ozone from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) to evaluate model tropospheric ozone and its effect on OLR simulated by a suite of chemistry-climate models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean of ACCMIP models show a persistent but modest tropospheric ozone low bias (5-20 ppb) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and modest high bias (5-10 ppb) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) relative to TES ozone for 2005-2010. These ozone biases have a significant impact on the OLR. Using TES instantaneous radiative kernels (IRK), we show that the ACCMIP ensemble mean tropospheric ozone low bias leads up to 120mW/ sq. m OLR high bias locally but zonally compensating errors reduce the global OLR high bias to 39+/- 41mW/ sq. m relative to TES data. We show that there is a correlation (Sq. R = 0.59) between the magnitude of the ACCMIP OLR bias and the deviation of the ACCMIP preindustrial to present day (1750-2010) ozone radiative forcing (RF) from the ensemble ozone RF mean. However, this correlation is driven primarily by models whose absolute OLR bias from tropospheric ozone exceeds 100mW/ sq. m. Removing these models leads to a mean ozone radiative forcing of 394+/- 42mW/ sq. m. The mean is about the same and the standard deviation is about 30% lower than an ensemble ozone RF of 384 +/- 60mW/ sq. m derived from 14 of the 16 ACCMIP models reported in a companion ACCMIP study. These results point towards a profitable direction of combining satellite observations and chemistry-climate model simulations to reduce uncertainty in ozone radiative forcing.

troposphere↗
NASA NTRS2023

Arctic Warming in Response to Regional Aerosol Emissions Reductions

This study examines the Arctic surface air temperature response to regional aerosol emissions reductions using three fully coupled chemistry–climate models: National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Earth System Model version 1, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory-Coupled Climate Model version 3 (GFDL-CM3) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies-ModelE version 2. Each of these models was used to perform a series of aerosol perturbation experiments, in which emissions of different aerosol types (sulfate, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon) in different northern mid-latitude source regions, and of biomass burning aerosol over South America and Africa, were substantially reduced or eliminated. We find that the Arctic warms in nearly every experiment, the only exceptions being the U.S. and Europe BC experiments in GFDL-CM3 in which there is a weak and insignificant cooling. The Arctic warming is generally larger than the global mean warming (i.e. Arctic amplification occurs), particularly during non-summer months. The models agree that changes in the poleward atmospheric moisture transport are the most important factor explaining the spread in Arctic warming across experiments: the largest warming tends to coincide with the largest increases in moisture transport into the Arctic. In contrast, there is an inconsistent relationship (correlation) across experiments between the local radiative forcing over the Arctic and the simulated Arctic warming, with this relationship being positive in one model (GFDL-CM3) and negative in the other two. Our results thus highlight the prominent role of poleward energy transport in driving Arctic warming and amplification, and suggest that the relative importance of poleward energy transport and local forcing/feedbacks is likely to be model dependent.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS2015

The GEWEX Process Evaluation Study: GEWEX-PROES

Progress in realistically simulating the energy and water cycles in weather and climate models has been slower than desirable. Climate models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP-5), while more comprehensive than their predecessors, have shown little to no improvement in their biases in simulating key features of the climate system. As a result, uncertainties in global climate and hydrological sensitivities, and in the simulation of regional climate change, have not been reduced significantly. It is time to make use of these opportunities to significantly advance our understanding of key energy and water cycle processes at a wide range of space and time scales, and to provide a more insightful evaluation of the representation of these processes within models. This will require new ways of both analyzing the observations and diagnosing model behavior. The keys to success will be in skillfully combining different data sets and exploring relationships between them, as well as in the ability of models to reproduce those relationships correctly. In response to this challenge, a new GEWEX-wide activity, the GEWEX Process Evaluation Study, will take advantage of the opportunities that the combination of many of the existing data sets provide.

climate models↗
NASA NTRS2010

Constraints and Opportunities in GCM Model Development

Over the past 30 years climate models have evolved from relatively simple representations of a few atmospheric processes to complex multi-disciplinary system models which incorporate physics from bottom of the ocean to the mesopause and are used for seasonal to multi-million year timescales. Computer infrastructure over that period has gone from punchcard mainframes to modern parallel clusters. Constraints of working within an ever evolving research code mean that most software changes must be incremental so as not to disrupt scientific throughput. Unfortunately, programming methodologies have generally not kept pace with these challenges, and existing implementations now present a heavy and growing burden on further model development as well as limiting flexibility and reliability. Opportunely, advances in software engineering from other disciplines (e.g. the commercial software industry) as well as new generations of powerful development tools can be incorporated by the model developers to incrementally and systematically improve underlying implementations and reverse the long term trend of increasing development overhead. However, these methodologies cannot be applied blindly, but rather must be carefully tailored to the unique characteristics of scientific software development. We will discuss the need for close integration of software engineers and climate scientists to find the optimal processes for climate modeling.

Schmidt, Gavin↗
NASA NTRS2002

Software Engineering Support of the Third Round of Scientific Grand Challenge Investigations: An Earth Modeling System Software Framework Strawman Design that Integrates Cactus and UCLA/UCB Distributed Data Broker

One of the most significant challenges in large-scale climate modeling, as well as in high-performance computing in other scientific fields, is that of effectively integrating many software models from multiple contributors. A software framework facilitates the integration task. both in the development and runtime stages of the simulation. Effective software frameworks reduce the programming burden for the investigators, freeing them to focus more on the science and less on the parallel communication implementation, while maintaining high performance across numerous supercomputer and workstation architectures. This document proposes a strawman framework design for the climate community based on the integration of Cactus, from the relativistic physics community, and UCLA/UCB Distributed Data Broker (DDB) from the climate community. This design is the result of an extensive survey of climate models and frameworks in the climate community as well as frameworks from many other scientific communities. The design addresses fundamental development and runtime needs using Cactus, a framework with interfaces for FORTRAN and C-based languages, and high-performance model communication needs using DDB. This document also specifically explores object-oriented design issues in the context of climate modeling as well as climate modeling issues in terms of object-oriented design.

Talbot, Bryan↗
NASA NTRS2018

Quantifying the Effect of Mixing on the Mean Age of Air in CCMVal-2 and CCMI-1 Models

The stratospheric age of air (AoA) is a useful measure of the overall capabilities of a general circulation model (GCM) to simulate stratospheric transport. Previous studies have reported a large spread in the simulation of AoA by GCMs and coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Compared to observational estimates, simulated AoA is mostly too low. Here we attempt to untangle the processes that lead to the AoA differences between the models and between models and observations. AoA is influenced by both mean transport by the residual circulation and two-way mixing; we quantify the effects of these processes using data from the CCM inter-comparison projects CCMVal-2 (Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Activity 2) and CCMI-1 (Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, phase 1). Transport along the residual circulation is measured by the residual circulation transit time (RCTT). We interpret the difference between AoA and RCTT as additional aging by mixing. Aging by mixing thus includes mixing on both the resolved and subgrid scale. We find that the spread in AoA between the models is primarily caused by differences in the effects of mixing and only to some extent by differences in residual circulation strength. These effects are quantified by the mixing efficiency, a measure of the relative increase in AoA by mixing. The mixing efficiency varies strongly between the models from 0.24 to 1.02. We show that the mixing efficiency is not only controlled by horizontal mixing, but by vertical mixing and vertical diffusion as well. Possible causes for the differences in the models' mixing efficiencies are discussed. Differences in subgrid-scale mixing (including differences in advection schemes and model resolutions) likely contribute to the differences in mixing efficiency. However, differences in the relative contribution of resolved versus parameterized wave forcing do not appear to be related to differences in mixing efficiency or AoA.

CCMI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Subsurface Cooling and Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Formation Over the Equatorial Pacific

Abstract The equatorial cold tongue region has not warmed up in response to historical radiative forcing in the real world, contrary to the strong warming often simulated by climate models. Here we demonstrate that climate models fail to represent one or both of the key processes driving observed sea surface temperature (SST) pattern formation: a realistic surface wind stress pattern shaping subsurface cooling through wind‐driven circulation changes, and effective connectivity between subsurface and surface temperatures via upwelling and mixing. Consequently, none of the models approximate the observed lack of cold tongue SST warming and strengthening of zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, those that come closest achieve this due to interhemispheric warming differences rather than equatorial dynamics as observed. Addressing different origins of subsurface cooling in observations and simulations, and how they connect to SST, will lead to improved understanding of tropical Pacific SST changes to date and how they will evolve in the future.

Jiang, Feng [Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Colu↗
NASA NTRS1982

A note on the maintenance of the atmospheric kinetic energy

The winter simulations of the GLAS climate model and the NCAR community climate model are used to examine the maintenance of the atmospheric kinetic energy. It is found that the kinetic energy is generated in the lower latitudes south of the maximum westerlies, transported northward and then, destroyed in the midlatitudes north of the maximum westerlies. Therefore, the atmospheric kinetic energy is maintained by the counterbalance between the divergence (convergence) of kinetic energy flux and generation (destruction) of kinetic energy in lower (middle) latitudes.

Chen, T.-C.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A study of the kinetic energy generation with general circulation models

The history data of winter simulation by the GLAS climate model and the NCAR community climate model are used to examine the generation of atmospheric kinetic energy. The contrast between the geographic distributions of the generation of kinetic energy and divergence of kinetic energy flux shows that kinetic energy is generated in the upstream side of jets, transported to the downstream side and destroyed there. The contributions from the time-mean and transient modes to the counterbalance between generation of kinetic energy and divergence of kinetic energy flux are also investigated. It is observed that the kinetic energy generated by the time-mean mode is essentially redistributed by the time-mean flow, while that generated by the transient flow is mainly responsible for the maintenance of the kinetic energy of the entire atmospheric flow.

Chen, T.-C.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Why Does the Stratosphere Get Moister During the 21st Century?

All chemistry-climate models predict that 1) the TTL warms during the 21st century and 2) that the humidity of air entering the stratosphere increases over this same period. It seems reasonable to conclude that the former causes the latter, but to our knowledge no one has actually tested that. We do so here by analyzing one chemistry-climate model in detail (the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model, GEOSCCM) and find that the warming of the TTL explains only a fraction of the increase in humidity of air entering the stratosphere. We do this by using meteorological fields from the model to drive a trajectory model, which estimates the water vapor variations in response to the large-scale temperature field. Water vapor simulated by the trajectory model increases by about one quarter of the amount it increases in the GEOSCCM. We conclude that, over the 21st century, an increase in the flux of ice through the TTL is responsible for most of the increase in the humidity of air entering the stratosphere in this model.

water vapor↗
NASA NTRS1982

Mid-latitude model analysis of solar radiation, the upper layers of the sea, and seasonal climate

A simplified, time-dependent energy balance climate model is run at the latitude belt 40-50 deg N. The model solves for the temperatures of the land, air, and 12 vertical oceanic layers, and it includes a wind stirred mixed layer. A change in model ocean optical turbidity from relatively clear (Jerlov 1) to particle rich (Jerlov III) conditions decreases the effective thickness of the oceanic layer in which heat is stored seasonally and increases the seasonal variation of sea surface temperature by 2-3 C. A decrease in the liquid water content of clouds by a factor of 4 warms the model climate and increases the seasonal variation of sea surface temperatures by 2-3 C. A 2-3 C change in the seasonal variation of sea surface temperature is also obtained by varying oceanic mixing through a factor of 2 change in the surface wind speed.

Charlock, T. P.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Long-Term Changes in Lower Tropospheric Baseline Ozone Concentrations:

Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northernmidlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models (NCAR CAM-chem, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by approximately 5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only approximately 50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture approximately 25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long-term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present-day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NO(sub x), an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.

atmospheric composition↗