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The intricate interactions between data sampling, model selection and the inherent randomness in complex systems strongly emphasize the need for a rigorous characterization of ML algorithms. In conventional statistics, uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides this characterization by measuring how accurately a model reflects the physical reality and by studying the impact of different error sources on the prediction.
Surrogate model development is a key resource in the scientific modeling community for providing computational expedience when simulating complex systems without loss of great fidelity. The initial step to development of a surrogate model is identification of the primary governing components of the system. Principal component analysis (PCA) is a widely used data science technique that provides inspection of such driving factors, when the objective for modeling is to capture the greatest sources of variance inherent to a dataset. Although an efficient linear dimension reduction tool, PCA makes the fundamental assumption that the data is continuous and normally distributed. Thus, it provides ideal performance when these conditions are met. In the case for which cyber emulations provide realizations of a port scanning scenario, the data to be modeled follows a discrete time series function comprised of monotonically increasing piece-wise constant steps. The sources of variance are related to the timing and magnitude of these steps. Therefore, we consider using XPCA, an extension to PCA for continuous and discrete random variates. This report provides the documentation of the trade-offs between the PCA and XPCA linear dimension reduction algorithms, for the intended purpose to identify key components of greatest variance in our time series data. These components will ultimately provide the basis for future surrogate models of port scanning cyber emulations.
RAVEN is a software framework able to perform parametric and stochastic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. The initial development was aimed at providing dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the thermohydraulic code RELAP-7, currently under development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Although the initial goal has been fully accomplished, RAVEN is now a multi-purpose stochastic and uncertainty quantification platform, capable of communicating with any system code. In fact, the provided Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) allow RAVEN to interact with any code as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by input files or via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable of investigating system response and explore input space using various sampling schemes such as Monte Carlo, grid, or Latin hypercube. However, RAVEN strength lies in its system feature discovery capabilities such as: constructing limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, and using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The development of RAVEN started in 2012 when, within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the need to provide a modern risk evaluation framework arose. RAVEN’s principal assignment is to provide the necessary software and algorithms in order to employ the concepts developed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) program. RISMC is one of the pathways defined within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. In the RISMC approach, the goal is not just to identify the frequency of an event potentially leading to a system failure, but the proximity (or lack thereof) to key safety-related events. Hence, the approach is interested in identifying and increasing the safety margins related to those events. A safety margin is a numerical value quantifying the probability that a safety metric (e.g. peak pressure in a pipe) is exceeded under certain conditions. Most of the capabilities, implemented having RELAP-7 as a principal focus, are easily deployable to other system codes. For this reason, several side activates have been employed (e.g. RELAP5-3D, any MOOSE-based App, etc.) or are currently ongoing for coupling RAVEN with several different software. The aim of this document is to provide a set of commented examples that can help the user to become familiar with the RAVEN code usage.
RAVEN is a generic software framework to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. The initial development was aimed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7, currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Although the initial goal has been fully accomplished, RAVEN is now a multi-purpose probabilistic and uncertainty quantification platform, capable to agnostically communicate with any system code. This agnosticism includes providing Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These APIs are used to allow RAVEN to interact with any code as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable of investigating the system response, and investigating the input space using Monte Carlo, Grid, or Latin Hyper Cube sampling schemes, but its strength is focused to- ward system feature discovery, such as limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The development of RAVEN has started in 2012, when, within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the need to provide a modern risk evaluation framework became stronger. RAVEN principal assignment is to provide the necessary software and algorithms in order to employ the concept developed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) program. RISMC is one of the pathways defined within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. In the RISMC approach, the goal is not just the individuation of the frequency of an event potentially leading to a system failure, but the closeness (or not) to key safety-related events. Hence, the approach is interested in identifying and increasing the safety margins related to those events. A safety margin is a numerical value quantifying the probability that a safety metric (e.g. for an important process such as peak pressure in a pipe) is exceeded under certain conditions. The initial development of RAVEN has been focused on providing dynamic risk assessment capability to RELAP-7, currently under development at the INL and, likely, future replacement of the RELAP5-3D code. Most the capabilities that have been implemented having RELAP-7 as principal focus are easily deployable for other system codes. For this reason, several side activates are currently ongoing for coupling RAVEN with soft- ware such as RELAP5-3D, etc. The aim of this document is the explanation of the input requirements, focalizing on the input structure.
The annual stockpile and weapons complex planning process is a highly interdependent, complex system of analyses and decisions that involve multiple sites and stakeholders.
Non-powered dams (NPDs) represent complex systems, situated at the intersection of natural stream environments and the built environment. The presence and operations of NPDs affect stream constituents (e.g., fish, recreational craft, sediment, water) and serve one or more engineered purposes (e.g., recreation, flood control, water supply, irrigation, tailings and debris control, navigation). By definition, NPDs do not provide hydropower generation. However, every NPD contains some untapped hydropower resource potential, represented by the pre-existing hydraulic head created by the dam and presence of flowing water. Adding power generation to an NPD requires retrofitting the NPD, which could involve the addition of any new component or function beyond that currently installed. Because this research is funded by the US Department of Energy Water Power Technologies Office, adding hydropower to NPDs is among the primary objectives for research investment. However, NPD retrofitting extends beyond the purview of hydropower additions. This report provides background information regarding NPD development in the United States, including an overview of the US NPD population, development potential, and recent development. It also summarizes challenges and opportunities facing NPD retrofit development, highlights the importance of maintaining or improving stream and dam functionality, notes key NPD characteristics, describes NPD retrofit methods, and identifies innovation areas for spurring future NPD retrofit development. Section 4 describes retrofit exemplary design principles and concepts that could apply to a wide range of NPD projects. These principles and concepts inform an NPD Retrofit Exemplary Design Specification (REDS), as included in Appendix A. The NPD REDS is heavily influenced by prior work under the standard modular hydropower technology acceleration research initiative, especially the work documented in the Exemplary Design Envelope Specification for Standard Modular Hydropower Technology (Witt et al., 2017). Whereas this prior work focuses on a particular technology class that applies most intentionally for new stream-reach development (i.e., greenfield sites), the NPD REDS contained herein applies more broadly to the NPD resource class and is technology-agnostic (i.e., the specific technologies intended to be described are not explicitly prescribed). This report serves as a part of early-phase research on NPD retrofit development, aimed toward spurring additional, follow-on efforts to specifically address development challenges, capitalize on development opportunities, and inspire innovation. As documented in the landmark “Hydropower Vision” report (DOE 2016), “transformative technical innovations able to meet the co-objectives of environmental sustainability and low-carbon energy will be critical to enabling additional hydropower growth.” This report serves as an important step in steering transformation of US non-powered dam infrastructure.
Adhesives and adhesive-bond joints play a critical role in many applications across the national security enterprise. They are ubiquitous and their aging performance can impact the physical and chemical behavior of complex systems. Previously, we have explored the chemical aging behavior of polyurethane adhesives (Halthane 73-18, Halthane 88-3, and Wilethane 44) exposed to varying levels of radiation and identified the primary chemical degradation products. In this work, we expand upon our analysis to understand how the mechanical properties of adhesives-bonded joints behave after radiation exposure.
This report details a new method for propagating parameter uncertainty (forward uncertainty quantification) in partial differential equations (PDE) based computational mechanics applications. The method provides full-field quantities of interest by solving for the joint probability density function (PDF) equations which are implied by the PDEs with uncertain parameters. Full-field uncertainty quantification enables the design of complex systems where quantities of interest, such as failure points, are not known apriori. The method, motivated by the well-known probability density function (PDF) propagation method of turbulence modeling, uses an ensemble of solutions to provide the joint PDF of desired quantities at every point in the domain. A small subset of the ensemble is computed exactly, and the remainder of the samples are computed with approximation of the driving (dynamics) term of the PDEs based on those exact solutions. Although the proposed method has commonalities with traditional interpolatory stochastic collocation methods applied directly to quantities of interest, it is distinct and exploits the parameter dependence and smoothness of the dynamics term of the governing PDEs. The efficacy of the method is demonstrated by applying it to two target problems: solid mechanics explicit dynamics with uncertain material model parameters, and reacting hypersonic fluid mechanics with uncertain chemical kinetic rate parameters. A minimally invasive implementation of the method for representative codes SPARC (reacting hypersonics) and NimbleSM (finite- element solid mechanics) and associated software details are described. For solid mechanics demonstration problems the method shows order of magnitudes improvement in accuracy over traditional stochastic collocation. For the reacting hypersonics problem, the method is implemented as a streamline integration and results show very good accuracy for the approximate sample solutions of re-entry flow past the Apollo capsule geometry at Mach 30.
Relatively few studies have focused on the cold plasma populations of the magnetosphere due to difficulties associated with obtaining measurements. The cold particle populations are defined here as those with total energy approximately <100 eV which is an energy range for which measurements are difficult (regardless of species), but which often make up the bulk of the plasma density. These populations have known and suspected impacts on the structure and dynamics of the magnetosphere. Unfortunately, the lack of accurate measurements of the cold ion and cold electron populations through the magnetosphere makes closure of these science questions extremely difficult if not impossible. In a complex system of interconnected parts like the Earth’s magnetosphere, a lack of understanding of one part of the system (the cold electron and ion populations) is disabling. Hence, until cold electron and cold ion measurements are obtained robustly with every mission, the magnetospheric plasma environment cannot be completely understood. This will require innovations in plasma spectrometers and associated techniques required to obtain high-fidelity in-situ measurements of the cold ion and cold electron populations in the magnetosphere. This paper seeks to review the instruments and techniques that have been used to date and present possible options for future missions.
The main objective of the Louisiana Consortium for Neutron Scattering (LaCNS) is to build a major neutron scattering infrastructure capable of treating both soft and hard materials. The goal is to create a sustainable effort having the quality, breadth, and depth necessary to produce competitive proposals including collaborative and center type proposals. Our scientific aim is to understand the role of coupling in emergent complex materials and its impact on the structure/property relationship and to explore how to tune the key couplings to guide the design of materials with the desired properties. This naturally includes building a base of users of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) and the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) in Louisiana; to train highly talented graduate and post-doctoral students in synthesis, neutron scattering, and simulation and modeling techniques, thereby helping to produce the next generation of scientist who use neutron scattering techniques as a crucial part of their research. The goal of our hard matter program is to understand the interplay between spin, charge, orbital, and lattice degrees of freedom in carefully selected complex materials. We have made considerable progress on number of complex systems including the oxide Sr3(Ru1-xMnx)2O7 where short-range magnetic ordering with anisotropic spin texture is initiated at the metal-insulator transition that clearly indicates a strong spin-charge coupling. Another critical area is in quantum materials. For example, in the topological semimetal BaMnSb2, we found a 3D canted antiferromagnetic Weyl semimetal with a 2D electronic structure and a nontrivial Berry phase. In addition, in the hexagonal chiral Mn1/3NbS2 system, we found soliton/soliton and soliton/antisoliton domain walls where the application of small fields or small currents can be used to control nanoscopic magnetic domains where the control of domain walls is crucially important for information storage. In addition, chemical transformation investigations were performed on the VISION instrument at Spallation Neutron Source (SNS). The soft matter effort was focused on understanding the role of non-covalent interactions on the structure and dynamics of fluid-based soft matter. One key focus was on sequence-defined (SD) amphiphilic peptoid polymers that allow encoding of molecular interactions and thereby systematic investigations of how charge directs the solution self-assembly of amphiphilic polymers in water. Another important area was on the dynamics of lipids self-assembled into membranes for exploring the permeability and mechanical using both neutron spin echo (NSE) spectroscopy and quasielastic neutron scattering (QENS) to distinguished between viscoelasticity and permeability at the molecular scale. Overall, the LaCNS project was quite successful, generating 145 publications and 245 presentations. Our graduate and post-doctoral students were well trained resulting in positions in national laboratories (Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Argonne National Laboratory and Los Alamos National Laboratory), major research universities, and industry. We also developed a uniaxial pressure cell along with ORNL for SNS. A critical goal of this project was to establish a foundation for competing nationally in federally funded research programs. To this end, we were quite successful in generating over twenty-two federally and non-federally funded grants including awards from NSF, DOE, and DOD, and two early career awards. Equally important, we were able to secure a key major piece of instrumentation via a large ARO grant for a state-of-the-art electron microscope.
This primer provides an overview of the most common hand calculation methods used for criticality safety calculations. The most widely used tools available to a nuclear criticality safety (NCS) practitioner are probably the common Monte Carlo or deterministic criticality safety codes, which can be used to model very complex systems. However, use of these codes can obscure the parameters to which a particular fissile system may be sensitive, whereas the hand calculation methods can be used to delve into the ways each parameter may affect the reactivity of a fissile material system. Furthermore, practitioners must avoid using computer codes as devices that take inputs and simply provide outputs (i.e., a “black box”). Many years ago, pioneers such as Joe Thomas, David Smith, and Hugh Paxton, among others in the field of nuclear criticality safety, took the time before the advent of high-speed desktop computers to create simple hand methods for criticality safety analyses. Some of the methods can be used for single fissile units; others are applicable to fissile units arranged into simple array configurations. This primer discusses the applicability of the various methods, illustrates how they are used, and provides an interpretation of the various results. The NCS practitioner will need to spend time to master the methods that could be most useful; however, they can provide the practitioner with fast and accurate answers to criticality safety problems if they are used correctly and if critical data exist for the problem at hand. Hand calculation methods can be used as a starting point for more advanced calculations, and in many circumstances, they can provide sensitivity and perturbation information more quickly than using a criticality code.
The goal of DE-SC0001815 was to advance the basic science of liquid:liquid interface formation, to develop a deeper understanding of the mechanisms of phase separation and the essential relationships between solution composition, organization and dynamics that underlie the kinetic regime of solvent extraction. This included learning how interfacial organization and dynamics alters the properties of the primary coordination sphere of ions and the free energy of transport of ions complexes across a phase boundary. We relied primarily upon classical molecular dynamics studies to determine the equilibrium ensembles of these complex systems, but also utilized ab-initio MD and cluster-based density functional theory (DFT) calculations when more detailed investigation of the electronic structure was needed. We continued development of graph-theory based analyses to elucidate hierarchical correlations and expanded into geometric topology methods to quantify the collectively organized structures that can organize at a liquid/liquid interface during solute transport. One of the main conclusions was from the observation of two distinct mechanisms for solute transport - those that derive from amplifications of interfacial heterogeneity and surface roughness, and those wherein surface roughness has been dampened and instead collectively organized macrostructures work to bring solutes into the organic phase. It was our aim to create a concrete chemical model of the underlying driving forces behind interfacial primary and secondary structure formation and to map out the energetic features of solute transport so that tailored liquid/liquid can be developed that have characteristic kinetic features associated with mass transport.
Liquids, ubiquitous on earth, are prototypical disordered condensed matter. As the mediate phase between non-structured gases and ordered solids, liquids p ossess intriguing complexities that are absent on either extreme counter phase, especially when they are driven away from equilibrium. Despite decades of studies, the physics of liquids still keeps surprising us and challenges our understanding of condensed matter, emergent phenomena, and complex systems. Among the many interesting properties, the nature of collective dynamics in liquids remains elusive because of both the presence of strong interactions and the absence of translational invariance. This project studied the universal features of collective density fluctuations (or collective modes), which include both phonon-like excitations and collective relaxations, in the Q-dependent generalized hydrodynamic regime in liquids and liquid-like matter both at and away from equilibrium. We performed systematic studies of the fast collective dynamics (including both phonon-like excitations and collective relaxations) of four classes of liquids characterized by different fragilities and interactions using synergistically integrated coherent neutron scattering experiments (Inelastic Neutron Scattering (INS), Quasi-Elastic Neutron Scattering (QENS), and Neutron Spin Echo (NSE)), a ViscoElastic Hydrodynamics theory we have been developing, andMolecular Dynamics (MD) simulations and our analysis package LiquidLib. The transformative knowledge of the collective dynamics in liquids is important to understand and ultimately control the transport of mass, energy, and charge in liquids, both at and away from thermal equilibrium, which may will likely impact a wide range of disciplines.
In this report we summarize the work conducted by PI Perdikaris and his group under this Early Career project DE–SC0019116 during the period of 09/01/2018 – 08/31/2023. The central aim of the work was to introduce a new paradigm for scientific data analysis that can seamlessly synthesize rigorous mathematical modeling with data of variable fidelity (e.g., measurements at multiple scales/resolutions or predictions of variable fidelity models) and multiple modalities (e.g., images, time–series, or scattered measurements). The setting we are interested in involves complex systems that are partially observed and whose dynamical behavior could be hard to model or totally unknown. The inherent uncertainty associated with this setting necessitates a departure from the classical deterministic realm of modeling and scientific computation, and, consequently, our main building blocks can no longer be crisp deterministic numbers and governing laws, but instead we must operate with probabilistic models.
DOME is a planned microreactor test facility at INL’s Materials and Fuels Complex. It is a complex system with several interdependent sub-systems such as the reactor (up to 20 MWth), radioactive confinement, temperature and pressure regulation system, ventilation system, etc. The engineering design process for such a system traditionally involves several documents from various sources and the system information is scattered across these documents. Digital engineering represents a paradigm shift through which systems are designed using digital models and integrated data. The digital engineering vision for DOME utilizes a model-based systems engineering (MBSE) approach. The system architecture, physical components, control logic, and verification experiments are all designed using MathWorks MATLAB and Simulink. This hierarchical model can combine data from multiple sources at various levels of abstraction. It can be used to simulate the facility’s operations and to test the system using different sets of parameters. Its capabilities can be expanded by interfacing it with high-fidelity multi-physics models, risk analysis tools, etc. The same model can evolve into a digital twin that can monitor operations and conduct predictive analysis using real-time sensor data from the facility. The eventual goal of this effort is to transform the end-to-end engineering of nuclear facilities in every phase of their lifecycle, including design, deployment, and operations.
The First Tri-Lab Workshop on Formal Verification was held in Santa Fe, New Mexico, on December 5th, 2023. This workshop gathered staff from Sandia, Los Alamos, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. This report summarizes and expands on the presentations given and discussion had at this workshop. In this report, we describe the current capabilities and research needs related to formal methods at the NNSA labs. In particular, we identify medium-term and long-term research gaps in programming languages, formalization efforts of complex systems, embedded systems verification, hardware verification, cybersecurity, formal methods usability, workflows, numerical methods, the use of formal methods for artificial intelligence (and its converse, artificial intelligence for formal methods), and collaboration opportunities and considerations on these topics. We conclude with a small number of exemplar research problems related to these topics.
The Canada-US Blended Cyber-Physical Exercise was a successful, first of its kind, multiorganization and multi-laboratory exercise that culminated years of complex system development and planning. The project aimed to answer three driving research questions, (1) How do cyberattacks support malicious acts leading to theft or sabotage [at a nuclear site]? (2) What are aspects of an effective combined cyber-physical response? (3) How to evaluate effectiveness of that response? Which derived the following primary objectives, 1. The May 2023 Cyber-Physical Exercise shall present a cyber-attack scenario that supports malicious acts leading to theft or sabotage. 2. The May 2023 Cyber-Physical Exercise shall define aspects of an effective combined cyber-physical response. 3. Analysis of the May 2023 Cyber-Physical Exercise shall evaluate the effectiveness of the incident response against pre-established exercise evaluation criteria. 4. Analysis of the May 2023 Cyber-Physical Exercise shall assess the effectiveness of the evaluation criteria itself. 5. Exercises shall be performed in a real-life environment. The team believes these objectives were met, and the evidence will be presented in this report. Due to the novelty of the exercise, there were several lessons learned that will be presented in this report.
Recent examples provide a significant concern for the resilience of the U.S. electric grid and represent a need for enhanced decision-making to address an increasingly wide range of complex system interactions and potential consequences. In response, this LDRD project produced a proof-of-concept evaluation called the Resilience and Hazard Assessment to Prioritize Security Operations for Decisions and Impacts (RHAPSODI) methodology as an agile and flexible analytic framework capable of addressing multiple, diverse threats to desired electric grid performance. After empirically grounding needs for the future of U.S. electric grid resilience, this project employed the systems-theoretic process analysis (STPA) to develop a systems engineering risk model. The results of a completed feasibility study of a notional high voltage transmission system demonstrate an improved ability to incorporate both spatial (e.g., geographically distributed) and temporal (e.g., dynamic and time-dependent) elements of security risk to the gird. The success of this LDRD project provides the foundation for further evolution of the systems engineering risk model for the grid; derivation of quantitative approaches to evaluate risk and resilience performance; facilitation of agile experimenting and grid sensitivity to a range of vulnerabilities; and development of tools to assist decision-makers in enhancing U.S. electrical grid resilience.