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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1994

Coastal zone color scanner 'system calibration': A retrospective examination

During its lifetime the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) produced approximately 66,000 images. These have been placed in an archive of 'raw' radiance (sensor counts) in a subsampled format that is easily accessible. They have also been processed to form global fields, at reduced resolution, of normalized water-leaving radiance, phytoplankton pigments, and diffuse attenuation coefficient. Using this archive, we have tried to characterize some aspects of the 'system calibration' for the 8-year lifetime of CZCS. Specifically, we have assumed that the sensitivity of the red band decayed in a simple manner similar to the well-known long-term degradation of the shorter-wavelength bands, and we examined the sensitivity of the green and yellow bands by computing the globally averaged water-leaving radiance, over 10-day periods, for all of the imagery. The results provided evidence that in addition to the long-term degradation, short-term (2 weeks to 1 month) variations in the radiometric sensitivity of these bands started in early fall 1981 and continued for the rest of the mission. In contrast, the data suggested the absence of such variations prior to August 1981. It is reasonable to believe that the sensitivity of the blue (and probably the red) band underwent such variations as well; however our methodology cannot be used to study the other bands. Thus, after these fluctuations began, the actual values of CZCS - estimated pigment concentrations at a given location should be viewed with skepticism; however, the global patterns of derived pigment concentrations should be valid. Had an extensive set of surface measurements of water-leaving radiance, e.r., from moored buoyes or drifters, had been available during the CZCS mission, these fluctuations could have been removed from the data set, and this would have greatly increased its value. The lessons learned from CZCS that is, the requirement of good radiometric calibration and stability and the necessity of 'sea truth' stations to monitor the performance of the system (sensor plus algorithms), are being applied to the sea-viewing wide-field-of-view senso (Sea WiFS) scheduled for launch in August 1993.

Evans, Robert H.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Can practice eliminate the psychological refractory period effect?

Can people learn to perform two tasks at the same time without interference? To answer this question, the authors trained 6 participants for 36 sessions in a Psychological Refractory Period (PRP) experiment, where Task 1 required a speeded vocal response to an auditory stimulus and Task 2 required a speeded manual response to a visual stimulus. The large PRP effect found initially (353 ms in Session 1) shrank to only about 40 ms over the course of practice, disappearing entirely for 1 of the 6 participants. This reduction in the PRP effect with practice is considerably larger than has been previously reported. The obtained pattern of factor interactions between stimulus onset asynchrony and each of three task difficulty manipulations (Task 1 judgment difficulty, Task 2 stimulus contrast, and Task 2 mapping compatibility) supports a postponement (bottleneck) account of dual-task interference, both before and after practice.

Pitch Perception/physiology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Geologic hydrogen: From natural occurrences to anthropogenic generation – A review of fundamentals, potential, challenges and prospects

Growing demand for hydrogen is exposing the environmental and economic limits of reforming-based and carbon-managed supply chains, while the scale-up of electrolytic capacity remains capital-constrained. Geologic hydrogen, defined as molecular H₂ generated and stored within the Earth's crust offers a complementary, potentially lower-cost resource, yet exploration is still ad hoc. This review (1) revisits a global inventory of confirmed hydrogen seeps and subsurface occurrences; (2) analyzes the controlling reactions, migration pathways, and trapping conditions governing these occurrences; (3) proposes a process-based geologic hydrogen system concept analogous to, yet distinct from, the petroleum system; and (4) evaluates potential geologic hydrogen systems within the United States as a representative case study. Here, we contrast natural systems powered by serpentinization, mantle degassing or radiolysis with anthropogenic systems that stimulate the same reactions or convert in-situ hydrocarbons. Stable hydrogen accumulations require generation rates that outpace combined physical, chemical and microbial losses; the Bourakébougou field (Mali) exemplifies a self-recharging, free-gas reservoir sustained by meteoric-water serpentinization beneath an efficient caprock. Prospective geologic hydrogen resources are likely to occur in regions where iron-rich lithologies, deep-seated faults, and low-permeability sealing formations coexist. Applying this principle, we highlight three promising hydrogen play types in U.S. geological terrains: ophiolite belts (Appalachian and Californian regions), the Midcontinent Rift and the Lake Superior banded‑iron formations. Multiphysics numerical models and positive-unlabeled machine-learning workflows help to accelerate play screening and de-risk future production; yet, reaction kinetics, stimulation strategies, and full techno-economic and life-cycle assessments remain pivotal knowledge gaps.

Anthropogenic hydrogen generation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multivariate environmental and trait-based controls of transpiration in the Central Amazon Rainforest

Tropical forest tree mortality is increasing due to more severe droughts, yet our understanding of how tree traits and life strategies are linked to drought stress has been limited by measurement scarcity. The BIONTE (BIOmass and NuTrient Experiment) near Manaus, Brazil hosts one of the world’s largest sap flow installations, with sensors in 90 canopy trees across a wood density gradient monitored since June 2022. The 2023 El Niño drought provided a unique opportunity to evaluate how water availability impacts tree transpiration. An interpretable machine learning framework was used to study the complex interactions between transpiration and multiple environmental variables such as soil water availability and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and how these interactions vary with wood density and individual trees. We found varying responses of transpiration from different trees during the El Niño drought. Transpiration generally increased with temperature, with stronger effects in wetter areas and in trees with low to medium wood density. However, this response was modulated by stomatal sensitivity to VPD, which constrained transpiration under high atmospheric demand, particularly in intermediate-moisture area. The inflection in transpiration rate at high temperatures (>32°C) underscores the role of stomatal and hydraulic regulation in limiting water loss and protecting trees from excessive evaporative demand. Analysis of soil water contribution to transpiration revealed unimodal patterns in wetter area, with peak contributions near 0.45 cm 3 cm -3 of surface soil water and declining or flat responses beyond that threshold, suggesting a shift from water- to energy-limited transpiration. In contrast, drier areas exhibited limited transpiration sensitivity to soil water conditions and minimal trait-based variation in VPD responses, indicating supply-limited conditions. Despite higher wood density trees being generally more resilient, this study shows diverse tree drought resilience, prompting further investigation into the specific traits and dynamics between environmental variables in regulating transpiration and other physiological processes in trees.

Drought↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics and optimal prediction of partially-observed complex systems

Abstract Only a subset of degrees of freedom are typically accessible or measurable in real-world systems. As a consequence, the proper setting for empirical modeling is that of partially-observed systems. Notably, data-driven models consistently outperform physics-based models for systems with few observable degrees of freedom; e.g. hydrological systems. Here, we provide an operator-theoretic explanation for this empirical success. To predict a partially-observed system’s future behavior with physics-based models, the missing degrees of freedom must be explicitly accounted for using data assimilation and model parametrization. Data-driven models, in contrast, employ delay-coordinate embeddings and their evolution under the Koopman operator to implicitly model the effects of the missing degrees of freedom. We describe in detail the statistical physics of partial observations underlying data-driven models using novel maximum entropy and maximum caliber measures. The resulting nonequilibrium Wiener projections applied to the Mori–Zwanzig formalism reveal how data-driven models may converge to the true dynamics of the observable degrees of freedom. Additionally, this framework shows how data-driven models infer the effects of unobserved degrees of freedom implicitly, in much the same way that physics models infer the effects explicitly. This provides a unified implicit-explicit modeling framework for predicting partially-observed systems, with hybrid physics-informed machine learning methods combining both implicit and explicit aspects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identifiability and predictability of integer- and fractional-order epidemiological models using physics-informed neural networks

Here we analyze a plurality of epidemiological models through the lens of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) that enable us to identify time-dependent parameters and data-driven fractional differential operators. In particular, we consider several variations of the classical susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model by introducing more compartments and fractional-order and time-delay models. We report the results for the spread of COVID-19 in New York City, Rhode Island and Michigan states and Italy, by simultaneously inferring the unknown parameters and the unobserved dynamics. For integer-order and time-delay models, we fit the available data by identifying time-dependent parameters, which are represented by neural networks. In contrast, for fractional differential models, we fit the data by determining different time-dependent derivative orders for each compartment, which we represent by neural networks. We investigate the structural and practical identifiability of these unknown functions for different datasets, and quantify the uncertainty associated with neural networks and with control measures in forecasting the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning pipeline for denoising low signal-to-noise ratio and out-of-distribution transmission electron microscopy datasets

High-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) is crucial for observing material’s structural and morphological evolution at Angstrom scales, but the electron beam can alter these processes. Devices such as CMOS-based direct-electron detectors operating in electron-counting mode can be utilized to substantially reduce the electron dosage. However, the resulting images often lead to a low signal-to-noise ratio, which requires frame integration that sacrifices temporal resolution. Several machine learning (ML) models have been recently developed to successfully denoise HRTEM images. Yet, these models are often computationally expensive, and their inference speeds on GPUs are outpaced by the imaging speed of advanced detectors, precluding in situ analysis. Furthermore, the performance of these denoising models on datasets with imaging conditions that deviate from the training datasets has not been evaluated. To mitigate these gaps, we propose a new self-supervised ML denoising pipeline specifically designed for time-series HRTEM images. This pipeline integrates a blind-spot convolution neural network with pre-processing and post-processing steps, including drift correction and low-pass filtering. Results demonstrate that our model outperforms various other ML and non-ML denoising methods in noise reduction and contrast enhancement, leading to improved visual clarity of atomic features. Additionally, the model is drastically faster than U-Net-based ML models and demonstrates excellent out-of-distribution generalization. The model’s computational inference speed is in the order of milliseconds per image, rendering it suitable for application in in-situ HRTEM experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

High Energy Density Physics of Inertial Confinement Fusion Ablator Materials

The historic December 5, 2022 experiment at Lawrence Livermore National Lab’s (LLNL) National Ignition Facility (NIF) reached fusion energy ignition for the first time. This is the most important scientific breakthrough of the 21st century paves the way to future clean inertial fusion energy (IFE). The diamond (high density carbon (HDC)) ablator material used in this experiment displays detrimental effects due to the development of hydrodynamic instabilities at the diamond/fuel interface under shock compression. New alternatives to diamond ablators are required to step up the energy yield in ICF experiments. The unique combination of mechanical strength (approaching that of diamond), the ability to accommodate high-Z dopants (in contrast to diamond), and the tunability of the properties (through synthesis material with varying sp 3 content) make amorphous carbon (a-C) a promising material for next-generation IFE ablative capsules. However, despite its critical importance to the IFE program, the behavior of a-C carbon at extreme temperatures and pressures remains largely unexplored. The primary goals of this project were to perform groundbreaking dynamic compression experiments and predictive simulations to uncover the fundamental high-energy-density physics of amorphous carbon. Our goals were (1) to uncover the metastability range of amorphous carbon and probe phase transitions to diamond or metastable supercooled liquid carbon; (2) to acquire high-quality equation of state (EOS) data and develop an experimentally validated EOS from machine-learning MD simulations of the complex states of carbon; and (3) to uncover the complex behavior of carbon liquid in both thermodynamically stable and metastable supercooled states by accessing large areas of carbon phase diagram with amorphous samples with variable sp 3 content. Our proposed experimental program included measurements of equation of state and diffraction measurements using the Omega EP laser at the Laboratory of Laser Energetics at the University of Rochester. The theoretical/simulation program involved the development of machine-learning models of the complex response of amorphous carbon under dynamic compression by performing molecular dynamics simulations at experimental time and length scales using leadership class DOE supercomputers. Simulations guided experiments to observe predicted phenomena and acquire critical experimental data in specific pressure-temperature domains to validate theoretical models. This research delivered fundamental properties of novel amorphous carbon IFE ablator material, including phase diagram and EOS. These results will aid in IFE target design and implosion experiments. A unique combination of predictive simulations and dynamic and static experiments provided a highly inspirational intellectual environment for graduate students and postdocs involved in this project.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stretching of immersed polyelectrolyte brushes in shear flow

In this article, the way that polymer brushes respond to shear flow has important implications in various applications, including antifouling, corrosion protection, and stimuli-responsive materials. However, there is still much to learn about the behaviours and mechanisms that govern these responses. To address this gap in knowledge, our study uses in situ X-ray reflectivity to investigate how poly(styrene sulfonate) (PSS) brushes stretch and change in different environments, such as isopropanol (a poor solvent), water (a good solvent), and aqueous solutions containing various cations (Cs + , Ba 2+ , La 3+ , and Y 3+ ). We have designed a custom apparatus that exposes the PSS brushes to both tangential shear forces from the primary flow and upward drag forces from a secondary flow. Our experimental findings clearly show that shear forces have a significant impact on how the chains in PSS brushes are arranged. At low shear rates, the tangential shear force causes the chains to tilt, leading to brush contraction. In contrast, higher shear rates generate an upward shear force that stretches and expands the chains. By analysing electron density profiles obtained from X-ray reflectivity, we gain valuable insights into how the PSS brushes respond structurally, especially the role of the diffuse layer in this dynamic behaviour. Our results highlight the importance of the initial chain configuration, which is influenced by the solvent and cations present, in shaping how polymer brushes respond to shear flow. The strength of the salt bridge network also plays a crucial role in determining how easily the brushes can stretch, with stronger networks offering more resistance to stretching. Ultimately, our study aims to enhance our understanding of polymer physics at interfaces, with a particular focus on practical applications involving polymer brushes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Deep State Space Model for Rainfall‐Runoff Simulations

The classical way of studying the rainfall‐runoff processes in the water cycle relies on conceptual or physically‐based hydrologic models. Deep learning (DL) has recently emerged as an alternative and blossomed in the hydrology community for rainfall‐runoff simulations. However, the decades‐old Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) network remains the benchmark for this task, outperforming newer architectures like Transformers. In this work, we propose a State Space Model (SSM), specifically the Frequency Tuned Diagonal State Space Sequence (S4D‐FT) model, for rainfall‐runoff simulations. The proposed S4D‐FT is benchmarked against the established LSTM and a physically‐based Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model under in‐sample and out‐of‐sample simulation setups across 531 watersheds in the contiguous United States (CONUS). Results show that S4D‐FT is able to outperform the LSTM model across diverse regions under both simulation setups, especially for regions that feature snowmelt‐driven or intermittent flow regimes. In contrast, S4D‐FT tends to underperform in flashier, high‐magnitude flow regimes, likely due to its global state‐space convolution computation that emphasizes slow, storage‐driven dynamics, which makes it less effective at picking up short bursts and noisy spikes in the data. In summary, our pioneering introduction of the S4D‐FT for rainfall‐runoff simulations challenges the dominance of LSTM in the hydrology community and expands the arsenal of DL tools available for hydrological modeling.

Wang, Yihan [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United↗

NASA NTRS2009

Sequential Principal Component Analysis -An Optimal and Hardware-Implementable Transform for Image Compression

This paper presents the JPL-developed Sequential Principal Component Analysis (SPCA) algorithm for feature extraction / image compression, based on "dominant-term selection" unsupervised learning technique that requires an order-of-magnitude lesser computation and has simpler architecture compared to the state of the art gradient-descent techniques. This algorithm is inherently amenable to a compact, low power and high speed VLSI hardware embodiment. The paper compares the lossless image compression performance of the JPL's SPCA algorithm with the state of the art JPEG2000, widely used due to its simplified hardware implementability. JPEG2000 is not an optimal data compression technique because of its fixed transform characteristics, regardless of its data structure. On the other hand, conventional Principal Component Analysis based transform (PCA-transform) is a data-dependent-structure transform. However, it is not easy to implement the PCA in compact VLSI hardware, due to its highly computational and architectural complexity. In contrast, the JPL's "dominant-term selection" SPCA algorithm allows, for the first time, a compact, low-power hardware implementation of the powerful PCA algorithm. This paper presents a direct comparison of the JPL's SPCA versus JPEG2000, incorporating the Huffman and arithmetic coding for completeness of the data compression operation. The simulation results show that JPL's SPCA algorithm is superior as an optimal data-dependent-transform over the state of the art JPEG2000. When implemented in hardware, this technique is projected to be ideally suited to future NASA missions for autonomous on-board image data processing to improve the bandwidth of communication.

Duong, Tuan A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Imaging Transitional Disks with TMT: Lessons Learned from the SEEDS Survey

TMT studies of the early phases of giant planet formation will build on studies carried out in this decade using 8-meter class telescopes. One such study is the Strategic Exploration of Exoplanets and Disks with Subaru transitional disk survey. We have found a wealth of indirect signatures of giant planet presence, including spiral arms, pericenter offsets of the outer disk from the star, and changes in disk color at the inner edge of the outer disk in intermediate-mass PMS star disks. T Tauri star transitional disks are less flamboyant, but are also dynamically colder: any spiral arms in these diskswill be more tightly wound. Imaging such features at the distance of the nearest star-forming regions requires higher angular resolution than achieved with HiCIAO+ AO188. Imaging such disks with extreme AO systems requires use of laser guide stars, and are infeasible with the extreme AO systems currently commissioning on 8-meter class telescopes. Similarly, the JWST and AFTAWFIRST coronagraphs being considered have inner working angles 0.2, and will occult the inner 28 atomic units of systems at d140pc, a region where both high-contrast imagery and ALMA data indicate that giant planets are located in transitional disks. However, studies of transitional disks associated with solar-mass stars and their planet complement are feasible with TMT using NFIRAOS.

star-forming regions↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine-learning-based investigation of the variables affecting summertime lightning occurrence over the Southern Great Plains

Lightning is affected by many factors, many of which are not routinely measured, well understood, or accounted for in physical models. Several commonly used machine learning (ML) models have been applied to analyze the relationship between Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data and lightning data from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) in order to identify important variables affecting lightning occurrence in the vicinity of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) ARM site during the summer months (June, July, August and September) of 2012 to 2020. Testing various ML models, we found that the random forest model is the best predictor among common classifiers. When convective clouds were detected, it predicts lightning occurrence with an accuracy of 76.9 % and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.850. Using this model, we further ranked the variables in terms of their effectiveness in nowcasting lightning and identified geometric cloud thickness, rain rate and convective available potential energy (CAPE) as the most effective predictors. The contrast in meteorological variables between no-lightning and frequent-lightning periods was examined for hours with CAPE values conducive to thunderstorm formation. Besides the variables considered for the ML models, surface variables and mid-altitude variables (e.g., equivalent potential temperature and minimum equivalent potential temperature, respectively) have statistically significant contrasts between no-lightning and frequent-lightning hours. For example, the minimum equivalent potential temperature from 700 to 500 hPa is significantly lower during frequent-lightning hours compared with no-lightning hours. Finally, a notable positive relationship between the intracloud (IC) flash fraction and the square root of CAPE ($\sqrt{CAPE}$) was found, suggesting that stronger updrafts increase the height of the electrification zone, resulting in fewer flashes reaching the surface and consequently a greater IC flash fraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Interactive Exploration Robots: Human-Robotic Collaboration and Interactions

For decades, NASA has employed different operational approaches for human and robotic missions. Human spaceflight missions to the Moon and in low Earth orbit have relied upon near-continuous communication with minimal time delays. During these missions, astronauts and mission control communicate interactively to perform tasks and resolve problems in real-time. In contrast, deep-space robotic missions are designed for operations in the presence of significant communication delay - from tens of minutes to hours. Consequently, robotic missions typically employ meticulously scripted and validated command sequences that are intermittently uplinked to the robot for independent execution over long periods. Over the next few years, however, we will see increasing use of robots that blend these two operational approaches. These interactive exploration robots will be remotely operated by humans on Earth or from a spacecraft. These robots will be used to support astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS), to conduct new missions to the Moon, and potentially to enable remote exploration of planetary surfaces in real-time. In this talk, I will discuss the technical challenges associated with building and operating robots in this manner, along with lessons learned from research conducted with the ISS and in the field.

Fong, Terry↗

NASA NTRS2003

Exploration of Advanced Probabilistic and Stochastic Design Methods

The primary objective of the three year research effort was to explore advanced, non-deterministic aerospace system design methods that may have relevance to designers and analysts. The research pursued emerging areas in design methodology and leverage current fundamental research in the area of design decision-making, probabilistic modeling, and optimization. The specific focus of the three year investigation was oriented toward methods to identify and analyze emerging aircraft technologies in a consistent and complete manner, and to explore means to make optimal decisions based on this knowledge in a probabilistic environment. The research efforts were classified into two main areas. First, Task A of the grant has had the objective of conducting research into the relative merits of possible approaches that account for both multiple criteria and uncertainty in design decision-making. In particular, in the final year of research, the focus was on the comparison and contrasting between three methods researched. Specifically, these three are the Joint Probabilistic Decision-Making (JPDM) technique, Physical Programming, and Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory. The next element of the research, as contained in Task B, was focused upon exploration of the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) methodology developed at ASDL, especially with regards to identification of research needs in the baseline method through implementation exercises. The end result of Task B was the documentation of the evolution of the method with time and a technology transfer to the sponsor regarding the method, such that an initial capability for execution could be obtained by the sponsor. Specifically, the results of year 3 efforts were the creation of a detailed tutorial for implementing the TIES method. Within the tutorial package, templates and detailed examples were created for learning and understanding the details of each step. For both research tasks, sample files and tutorials are attached in electronic form with the enclosed CD.

Marvis, Dimitri N.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Exploration of Advanced Probabilistic and Stochastic Design Methods

Mavris, Dimitri N.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Photometric redshift estimation of BASS DR3 quasars by machine learning

ABSTRACT Correlating Beijing–Arizona Sky Survey (BASS) data release 3 (DR3) catalogue with the ALLWISE data base, the data from optical and infrared information are obtained. The quasars from Sloan Digital Sky Survey are taken as training and test samples while those from LAMOST are considered as external test sample. We propose two schemes to construct the redshift estimation models with XGBoost, CatBoost, and Random Forest. One scheme (namely one-step model) is to predict photometric redshifts directly based on the optimal models created by these three algorithms; the other scheme (namely two-step model) is to first classify the data into low- and high-redshift data sets, and then predict photometric redshifts of these two data sets separately. For one-step model, the performance of these three algorithms on photometric redshift estimation is compared with different training samples, and CatBoost is superior to XGBoost and Random Forest. For two-step model, the performances of these three algorithms on the classification of low and high redshift subsamples are compared, and CatBoost still shows the best performance. Therefore, CatBoost is regarded as the core algorithm of classification and regression in two-step model. In contrast to one-step model, two-step model is optimal when predicting photometric redshift of quasars, especially for high-redshift quasars. Finally, the two models are applied to predict photometric redshifts of all quasar candidates of BASS DR3. The number of high-redshift quasar candidates is 3938 (redshift ≥3.5) and 121 (redshift ≥4.5) by two-step model. The predicted result will be helpful for quasar research and follow-up observation of high-redshift quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating probabilistic deep learning methods for uncertainty quantification of temperature downscaling

Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a promising tool for downscaling coarse-resolution climate data to high-resolution outputs, enabling improved regional climate predictions. A critical aspect of DL-based downscaling is the incorporation of uncertainty quantification (UQ), which enhances the interpretability and reliability of predictions—key factors for climate risk assessment and decision-making. This study develops a DL model to downscale 2 m temperature across the contiguous United States using reanalysis datasets. We systematically evaluate three epistemic UQ methods—deep ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo dropout (MCD), and Flipout—based on their probabilistic accuracy, downscaling performance, sensitivity to geographical features, and computational efficiency. Results indicate that MCD generally outperforms Flipout and DEns in terms of calibration and downscaling accuracy. However, DEns demonstrate lower calibration errors in coastal regions, indicating its higher confidence within these areas. Flipout, in contrast, is more sensitive to elevation gradients and exhibits higher calibration errors in mountainous regions. Hence, the choice of UQ method for this task depends on the specific requirements of the application. For applications that prioritize overall calibration, downscaling accuracy, and computational efficiency, MCD is a strong candidate. These findings highlight the importance of selecting UQ methods based on application-specific requirements, such as geographical context and computational constraints. By addressing the trade-offs between UQ methods, this study provides actionable insights for improving the reliability, scalability, and utility of DL-based downscaling in climate science.

Environmental sciences↗