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DOE OSTI2022

Deletion of African Swine Fever Virus Histone-like Protein, A104R from the Georgia Isolate Drastically Reduces Virus Virulence in Domestic Pigs

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is the etiological agent of a frequently lethal disease, ASF, affecting domestic and wild swine. Currently, ASF is causing a pandemic affecting pig production in Eurasia. There are no vaccines available, and therefore control of the disease is based on culling infected animals. We report here that deletion of the ASFV gene A104R, a virus histone-like protein, from the genome of the highly virulent ASFV-Georgia2010 (ASFV-G) strain induces a clear decrease in virus virulence when experimentally inoculated in domestic swine. A recombinant virus lacking the A104R gene, ASFV-G-ΔA104R, was developed to assess the role of the A104R gene in disease production in swine. Domestic pigs were intramuscularly inoculated with 10 2 HAD 50 of ASFV-G-ΔA104R, and compared with animals that received a similar dose of virulent ASFV-G. While all ASFV-G inoculated animals developed a fatal form of the disease, animals receiving ASFV-G-ΔA104R survived the challenge, remaining healthy during the 28-day observational period, with the exception of only one showing a protracted but fatal form of the disease. ASFV-G-ΔA104R surviving animals presented protracted viremias with reduced virus titers when compared with those found in animals inoculated with ASFV-G, and all of them developed a strong virus-specific antibody response. This is the first report demonstrating that the A104R gene is involved in ASFV virulence in domestic swine, suggesting that A104R deletion may be used to increase the safety profile of currently experimental vaccines.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deletion of the H240R Gene in African Swine Fever Virus Partially Reduces Virus Virulence in Swine

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease that affects wild and domestic swine. Currently, the disease is present as a pandemic affecting pork production in Eurasia and the Caribbean region. The etiological agent of ASF is a large, highly complex structural virus (ASFV) harboring a double-stranded genome encoding for more than 160 proteins whose functions, in most cases, have not been experimentally characterized. We show here that deletion of the ASFV gene H240R from the genome of the highly virulent ASFV-Georgia2010 (ASFV-G) isolate partially decreases virus virulence when experimentally inoculated in domestic swine. ASFV-G-ΔH240R, a recombinant virus harboring the deletion of the H240R gene, was produced to evaluate the function of the gene in the development of disease in pigs. While all animals intramuscularly inoculated with 10 2 HAD 50 of ASFV-G developed a fatal form of the disease, forty percent of pigs receiving a similar dose of ASFV-G-ΔH240R survived the infection, remaining healthy during the 28-day observational period, and the remaining sixty percent developed a protracted but fatal form of the disease compared to that induced by ASFV-G. Additionally, all animals inoculated with ASFV-G-ΔH240R presented protracted viremias with reduced virus titers when compared with those found in animals inoculated with ASFV-G. Animals surviving infection with ASFV-G-ΔH240R developed a strong virus-specific antibody response and were protected against the challenge of the virulent parental ASFV-G.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of the Deletion of the African Swine Fever Virus Gene O174L from the Genome of the Georgia Isolate

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is a structurally complex, double-stranded DNA virus, which causes African swine fever (ASF), a contagious disease affecting swine. ASF is currently affecting pork production in a large geographical region, including Eurasia and the Caribbean. ASFV has a large genome, which harbors more than 160 genes, but most of these genes’ functions have not been experimentally characterized. One of these genes is the O174L gene which has been experimentally shown to function as a small DNA polymerase. Here, we demonstrate that the deletion of the O174L gene from the genome of the virulent strain ASFV Georgia2010 (ASFV-G) does not significantly affect virus replication in vitro or in vivo. A recombinant virus, having deleted the O174L gene, ASFV-G-ΔO174L, was developed to study the effect of the O174L protein in replication in swine macrophages cultures in vitro and disease production when inoculated in pigs. The results demonstrated that ASFV-G-ΔO174L has similar replication kinetics to parental ASFV-G in swine macrophage cultures. In addition, animals intramuscularly inoculated with 10 2 HAD 50 of ASFV-G-ΔO174L presented a clinical form of the disease that is indistinguishable from that induced by the parental virulent strain ASFV-G. All animals developed a lethal disease, being euthanized around day 7 post-infection. Therefore, although O174L is a well-characterized DNA polymerase, its function is apparently not critical for the process of virus replication, both in vitro and in vivo, or for disease production in domestic pigs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

MicroRNAs as diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers of age-related macular degeneration: advances and limitations

A main cause of vision loss in the elderly is age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Among the cellular, biochemical, and molecular changes linked to this disease, inflammation and angiogenesis appear as being crucial in AMD pathogenesis and progression. There are two forms of the disease: dry AMD, accounting for 80–90% of cases, and wet AMD. The disease usually begins as dry AMD associated with retinal pigment epithelium and photoreceptor degeneration, whereas wet AMD is associated with choroidal neovascularization resulting in severe vision impairment. The new vessels are largely malformed, leading to blood and fluid leakage within the disrupted tissue, which provokes inflammation and scar formation and results in retinal damage and detachment. MicroRNAs are dysregulated in AMD and may facilitate the early detection of the disease and monitoring disease progression. Two recent reviews of microRNAs in AMD had indicated weaknesses or limitations in four earlier investigations. Studies in the last three years have shown considerable progress in overcoming some of these concerns and identifying specific microRNAs as biomarkers for AMD. Further large-scale studies are warranted using appropriate statistical methods to take into account gender and age disparity in the study populations and confounding factors such as smoking status.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bi-terminal pegylated integrin-binding peptides and methods of use thereof

The present invention provides bi-terminal PEGylated peptide conjugates that target an integrin such as αvβ6 integrin. In particular embodiments, the peptide conjugates of the present invention further comprise a biological agent such as an imaging agent or a therapeutic agent, e.g., covalently attached to one of the PEG moieties. The peptide conjugates of the present invention are particularly useful for imaging a tumor, organ, or tissue and for treating integrin-mediated diseases and disorders such as cancer, inflammatory diseases, autoimmune diseases, chronic fibrosis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung emphysema, and chronic wounding skin disease. Compositions and kits containing the peptide conjugates of the present invention find utility in a wide range of applications including, e.g., in vivo imaging and immunotherapy.

Hausner, Sven H.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bi-terminal pegylated integrin-binding peptides and methods of use thereof

Hausner, Sven H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mapping Incidence and Prevalence Peak Data for SIR Modeling Applications

Infectious disease modeling and forecasting have played a key role in helping assess and respond to epidemics and pandemics. Recent work has leveraged data on disease peak infection and peak hospital incidence to fit compartmental models for the purpose of forecasting and describing the dynamics of a disease outbreak. Incorporating these data can greatly stabilize a compartmental model fit on early observations, where slight perturbations in the data may lead to model fits that forecast wildly unrealistic peak infection. We introduce a new method for incorporating historic data on the value and time of peak incidence of hospitalization into the fit for a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model by formulating the relationship between an SIR model’s starting parameters and peak incidence as a system of two equations that can be solved computationally. We demonstrate how to calculate SIR parameter estimates – which describe disease dynamics such as transmission and recovery rates – using this method, and determine that there is a noticeable loss in accuracy whenever prevalence data is misspecified as incidence data. To exhibit the modeling potential, we update the Dirichlet-Beta State Space modeling framework to use hospital incidence data, as this framework was previously formulated to incorporate only data on total infections. This approach is assessed for practicality in terms of accuracy and speed of computation via simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Metagenomic Alterations in Gut Microbiota Precede and Predict Onset of Colitis in the IL10 Gene-Deficient Murine Model

SUMMARY. Currently, predictive markers for the development andcourse of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) are not available. This study supports the notion that gut microbiome metagenomic profiles could be developed into a useful tool to assess risk and manage human IBD. BACKGROUND & AIMS: Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) are chronic inflammatory disorders where predictive bio-markers for the disease development and clinical course are sorely needed for development of prevention and early intervention strategies that can be implemented to improve clinical outcomes. Since gut microbiome alterations can reflect and/or contribute to impending host health changes, we examined whether gut microbiota metagenomic profiles would provide more robust measures for predicting disease outcomes in colitis-prone hosts. METHODS: Using the interleukin (IL) 10 gene-deficient (IL10KO) murine model where early life dysbiosis from antibiotic (cefoperozone [CPZ]) treated dams vertically transferred to pups increases risk for colitis later in life, we investigated temporal metagenomic profiles in the gut microbiota of post-weaning offspring and determined their relationship to even-tual clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Compared to controls, offspring acquiring maternalCPZ-induced dysbiosis exhibited a restructuring of intestinal microbial membership in both bacteriome and mycobiome that was associated with alterations in specific functional subsystems. Furthermore, among IL10 KO offspring fromCPZ-treated dams, several functional subsystems, particularly nitrogen metabolism, diverged between mice that developed spontaneous colitis (CPZ-colitis) versus those that did not (CPZ-no-colitis) at a time point prior to eventual clinical outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide support that functional metagenomic profiling of gut microbes has potential and promise meriting further study for development of tools to assess risk and manage human IBD.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

On alert for Ebola: public health risk assessment of travellers from Uganda to the USA during the 2022 outbreak

Abstract Background On 20 September 2022, the Ugandan Ministry of Health declared an outbreak of Ebola disease caused by Sudan ebolavirus. Methods From 6 October 2022 to 10 January 2023, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) staff conducted public health assessments at five US ports of entry for travellers identified as having been in Uganda in the past 21 days. CDC also recommended that state, local and territorial health departments (‘health departments’) conduct post-arrival monitoring of these travellers. CDC provided traveller contact information, daily to 58 health departments, and collected health department data regarding monitoring outcomes. Results Among 11 583 travellers screened, 132 (1%) required additional assessment due to potential exposures or symptoms of concern. Fifty-three (91%) health departments reported receiving traveller data from CDC for 10 114 (87%) travellers, of whom 8499 (84%) were contacted for monitoring, 1547 (15%) could not be contacted and 68 (1%) had no reported outcomes. No travellers with high-risk exposures or Ebola disease were identified. Conclusion Entry risk assessment and post-arrival monitoring of travellers are resource-intensive activities that had low demonstrated yield during this and previous outbreaks. The efficiency of future responses could be improved by incorporating an assessment of risk of importation of disease, accounting for individual travellers’ potential for exposure, and expanded use of methods that reduce burden to federal agencies, health departments, and travellers.

General & Internal Medicine↗

DOE OSTI2023

Amoeba species colonizing the gills of rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) in Swiss aquaculture

Nodular gill disease (NGD) is an infectious condition characterized by proliferative gill lesions leading to respiratory problems, oxygen deficiency and mortality in fish. Globally, NGD primarily impacts freshwater salmonids in intensive aquaculture systems. In recent years, numerous outbreaks of severe gill disease have affected more than half of the larger rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) farms in Switzerland, mainly during spring and early summer. Mortality has reached up to 50% in cases where no treatment was administered. Freshwater amoeba are the presumed aetiologic agent of NGD. The gross gill score (GS) categorising severity of gill pathology is a valuable first-line diagnostic tool aiding fish farmers in identifying and quantifying amoebic gill disease (AGD) in farmed marine salmonids. In this study, the GS was adapted to the NGD outbreak in farmed trout in Switzerland. In addition to scoring disease severity, gill swabs from NGD-affected rainbow trout were sampled and amoeba were cultured from these swabs. Morphologic and molecular methods identified six amoeba strains: Cochliopodium sp., Naegleria sp., Vannella sp., Ripella sp., Saccamoeba sp. and Mycamoeba sp. However, the importance of the different amoeba species for the onset and progression of NGD still has to be evaluated. This paper presents the first description of NGD with associated amoeba infection in farmed rainbow trout in Switzerland.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Progress Toward a Multiomic Understanding of Traumatic Brain Injury: A Review

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is not a single disease state but describes an array of conditions associated with insult or injury to the brain. While some individuals with TBI recover within a few days or months, others present with persistent symptoms that can cause disability, neuropsychological trauma, and even death. Understanding, diagnosing, and treating TBI is extremely complex for many reasons, including the variable biomechanics of head impact, differences in severity and location of injury, and individual patient characteristics. Because of these confounding factors, the development of reliable diagnostics and targeted treatments for brain injury remains elusive. We argue that the development of effective diagnostic and therapeutic strategies for TBI requires a deep understanding of human neurophysiology at the molecular level and that the framework of multiomics may provide some effective solutions for the diagnosis and treatment of this challenging condition. To this end, we present here a comprehensive review of TBI biomarker candidates from across the multiomic disciplines and compare them with known signatures associated with other neuropsychological conditions, including Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease. We believe that this integrated view will facilitate a deeper understanding of the pathophysiology of TBI and its potential links to other neurological diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Comprehensive Urine Proteome Database Generated From Patients With Various Renal Conditions and Prostate Cancer

Urine proteins can serve as viable biomarkers for diagnosing and monitoring various diseases. A comprehensive urine proteome database, generated from a variety of urine samples with different disease conditions, can serve as a reference resource for facilitating discovery of potential urine protein biomarkers. Herein, we present a urine proteome database generated from multiple datasets using 2D LC-MS/MS proteome profiling of urine samples from healthy individuals (HI), renal transplant patients with acute rejection (AR) and stable graft (STA), patients with non-specific proteinuria (NS), and patients with prostate cancer (PC). A total of ~28,000 unique peptides spanning ~2,200 unique proteins were identified with a false discovery rate of <0.5% at the protein level. Over one third of the annotated proteins were plasma membrane proteins and another one third were extracellular proteins according to gene ontology analysis. Ingenuity Pathway Analysis of these proteins revealed 349 potential biomarkers in the literature-curated database. Forty-three percentage of all known cluster of differentiation (CD) proteins were identified in the various human urine samples. Interestingly, following comparisons with five recently published urine proteome profiling studies, which applied similar approaches, there are still ~400 proteins which are unique to this current study. These may represent potential disease-associated proteins. Among them, several proteins such as serpin B3, renin receptor, and periostin have been reported as pathological markers for renal failure and prostate cancer, respectively. Taken together, our data should provide valuable information for future discovery and validation studies of urine protein biomarkers for various diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Image-Based Methods to Score Fungal Pathogen Symptom Progression and Severity in Excised Arabidopsis Leaves

Image-based symptom scoring of plant diseases is a powerful tool for associating disease resistance with plant genotypes. Advancements in technology have enabled new imaging and image processing strategies for statistical analysis of time-course experiments. There are several tools available for analyzing symptoms on leaves and fruits of crop plants, but only a few are available for the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana (Arabidopsis). Arabidopsis and the model fungus Botrytis cinerea (Botrytis) comprise a potent model pathosystem for the identification of signaling pathways conferring immunity against this broad host-range necrotrophic fungus. Here, we present two strategies to assess severity and symptom progression of Botrytis infection over time in Arabidopsis leaves. Thus, a pixel classification strategy using color hue values from red-green-blue (RGB) images and a random forest algorithm was used to establish necrotic, chlorotic, and healthy leaf areas. Secondly, using chlorophyll fluorescence (ChlFl) imaging, the maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv/Fm) was determined to define diseased areas and their proportion per total leaf area. Both RGB and ChlFl imaging strategies were employed to track disease progression over time. This has provided a robust and sensitive method for detecting sensitive or resistant genetic backgrounds. A full methodological workflow, from plant culture to data analysis, is described.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Inference of State-Level COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Numbers across the United States

Although many persons in the United States have acquired immunity to COVID-19, either through vaccination or infection with SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 will pose an ongoing threat to non-immune persons so long as disease transmission continues. We can estimate when sustained disease transmission will end in a population by calculating the population-specific basic reproduction number ℛ0, the expected number of secondary cases generated by an infected person in the absence of any interventions. The value of ℛ0 relates to a herd immunity threshold (HIT), which is given by 1−1/ℛ0. When the immune fraction of a population exceeds this threshold, sustained disease transmission becomes exponentially unlikely (barring mutations allowing SARS-CoV-2 to escape immunity). Here, we report state-level ℛ0 estimates obtained using Bayesian inference. Maximum a posteriori estimates range from 7.1 for New Jersey to 2.3 for Wyoming, indicating that disease transmission varies considerably across states and that reaching herd immunity will be more difficult in some states than others. ℛ0 estimates were obtained from compartmental models via the next-generation matrix approach after each model was parameterized using regional daily confirmed case reports of COVID-19 from 21 January 2020 to 21 June 2020. Our ℛ0 estimates characterize the infectiousness of ancestral strains, but they can be used to determine HITs for a distinct, currently dominant circulating strain, such as SARS-CoV-2 variant Delta (lineage B.1.617.2), if the relative infectiousness of the strain can be ascertained. On the basis of Delta-adjusted HITs, vaccination data, and seroprevalence survey data, we found that no state had achieved herd immunity as of 20 September 2021.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Repatriated Desert Bighorn Sheep Population on the Nevada National Security Site

Ecological studies have been conducted on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) since the 1960s. Desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) were considered rare visitors on the NNSS, with only 9 recorded observations between 1963 and 2009, all of which were males. Females and young were not documented definitively until winter 2011, when several were killed by a radio-collared female mountain lion (Puma concolor). Following these observations, we initiated a study of desert bighorn sheep on the NNSS to better understand their movements/interactions with other populations, prevalence of disease, population size, origin, radionuclide burdens and potential radiological dose to humans that may consume harvested animals away from the NNSS. We captured and radio-collared 6 sheep (2 females, 4 males) in November 2015, and 15 (7 females, 8 males) in November 2016. We sampled blood for genetic and disease testing and collected nasal swabs for respiratory disease testing. Sheep from the NNSS spent most of their time around Shoshone Mountain, Fortymile Canyon, and Yucca Mountain but also moved to Bare Mountain, Thirsty Canyon, and Black Mountain. Females greatly expanded their core and overall home ranges during spring, whereas males expanded their home ranges during summer. Of 18 sheep sampled for disease, 12 showed an immune response to Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, and 5 had the bacteria present. Genetic testing revealed that the ancestry of NNSS sheep is from the Bare Mountain (1991-1995, within 24 km of our study area), Specter Range (1990-1995, within 32 km of our study area), and Stonewall Mountain (1975-1983, within 72 km of our study area) reintroduced populations. Radionuclide burden in NNSS sheep was minimal with no significant difference from sheep captured on the Nevada Test and Training Range and northern Nevada. One marked adult male was legally harvested off the NNSS north of Bare Mountain. Finally, this recently colonized reproducing population of sheep on the NNSS warrants further monitoring, protection, and inclusion in resource management plans.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The POINTER Imaging baseline cohort: Associations between multimodal neuroimaging biomarkers, cardiovascular health, and cognition

Abstract INTRODUCTION The U.S. Study to Protect Brain Health Through Lifestyle Intervention to Reduce Risk (U.S. POINTER) is evaluating lifestyle interventions in older adults at risk for cognitive decline and dementia. Here we characterize the baseline data set of the POINTER Imaging ancillary study. METHODS Participants underwent health and cognitive assessments and neuroimaging with multimodal positron emission tomography (PET) (beta‐amyloid [Aβ] and tau) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Framingham risk score (FRS) was used to quantify cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. RESULTS A total of 1052 participants (31% from underrepresented ethnoracial groups) were enrolled. Compared to Aβ−, Aβ+ (29%) participants were older, had higher apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 carriage rate and white matter hyperintensity volume, and greater temporal tau. FRS was related to MRI measures, but not AD biomarkers. FRS and tau had independent effects on cognition. DISCUSSION In this heterogenous, at‐risk cohort, CVD risk was related to more abnormal brain structure and poorer cognition, representing a putative non‐AD (Alzheimer's disease) pathway to brain injury and cognitive decline. Highlights The U.S. Study to Protect Brain Health Through Lifestyle Intervention to Reduce Risk (U.S. POINTER) cohort is enriched for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and poor lifestyle POINTER Imaging collected multimodal neuroimaging data in this unique, at‐risk cohort Amyloid burden was related to age, apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 carriage, and measures of disease progression Associations between amyloid and tau, and tau and cognition, were relatively weak CVD risk and tau pathology were independently related to memory

Neurosciences & Neurology↗