Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Data Inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 541 records · Page 30

Properties and decay of stratospheric aerosols in the Arctic following the 1991 eruptions of Mount Pinatubo

Sunphotometer observations made from an aircraft several months after the June 1991 eruptions of Mount Pinatubo are used to quantify the spectral opacity of the Arctic stratosphere. Ancillary surface-based measurements are presented in support of the aircraft data that show large increases in stratospheric optical depth attributed to the presence of volcanic aerosols. Visible optical depths greater than 0.2 were observed during flight segments flown above the tropopause. An inversion algorithm and the optical depth data are used to infer effective aerosol size distributions. The distributions tend to be bimodal, having a large-partical mode radius of about 0.50 micron and a small-particle mode of higher concentration with radii less than 0.18 micron. Surface measurements made during spring 1992 and 1993 are also used to estimate a time constant (e-folding time) of about 13.5 months assuming that the Arctic stratosphere's opacity decays exponentially; this estimate is larger than decay times observed following other major volcanic eruptions. Our results suggest that any climate perturbations in the Arctic caused by eruptions of Pinatubo may be significant and will very likely persist longer than any volcanically-induced changes observed there during the past century.

Stone, Robert S.↗

Stable water isotope behavior during the last glacial maximum: A general circulation model analysis

Global water isotope geochemisty during the last glacial maximum (LGM) is simulated with an 8 deg x 10 deg atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The simulation results suggest that the spatial delta O-18/temperature relationships observed for the present day and LGM climates are very similar. Furthermore, the temporal delta O-18/temperature relationship is similar to the present-day spatial relationship in regions for which the LGM/present-day temperature change is significant. This helps justify the standard practice of applying the latter to the interpretation of paleodata, despite the possible influence of other factors, such as changes in the evaportive sources of precipitation or in the seasonality of precipitation. The model suggests, for example, that temperature shifts inferred from ice core data may differ from the true shifts by only about 30%.

Jouzel, Jean↗

VLF waves in the foreshock

Plasma waves observed in the VLF range upstream of planetary bow shocks not only modify the particle distributions, but also provide important information about the acceleration processes that occur at the bow shock. Electron plasma oscillations observed near the tangent field line in the electron foreshock are generated by electrons reflected at the bow shock through a process that has been referred to as Fast Fermi acceleration. Fast Fermi acceleration is the same as shock-drift acceleration, which is one of the mechanisms by which ions are energized at the shock. We have generated maps of the VLF emissions upstream of the Venus bow shock, using these maps to infer properties of the shock energization processes. We find that the plasma oscillations extend along the field line up to a distance that appears to be controlled by the shock scale size, implying that shock curvature restricsts the flux and energy of reflected electrons. We also find that the ion acoustic waves are observed in the ion foreshock, but at Venus these emissions are not detected near the ULF forshock boundary. Through analogy with terrestrial ion observations, this implies that the ion acoustic waves are not generated by ion beams, but are instead generated by diffuse ion distributions found deep within the ion foreshock. However, since the shock is much smaller at Venus, and there is no magnetosphere, we might expect ion distributions within the ion foreshock to be different than at the Earth. Mapping studies of the terrestrial foreshock similar to those carried out at Venus appear to be necessary to determine if the inferences drawn from Venus data are applicable to other foreshocks.

Strangeway, R. J.↗

Radio Wave Scattering in the Outer Heliosphere: Preliminary Calculations

Detailed first estimates are presented of angular broadening in the outer heliosphere due to scattering of radio waves by density irregularities. The application is to the 2-3 kHz radiation observed by Voyager. Two plausible turbulence models, which account very well for scattering within 1 AU, are extrapolated beyond 10 AU. Both models predict significant angular broadening in the outer heliosphere, accounting semi- quantitatively alone for the source sizes inferred from roll modulation data. Predictions are presented for radial variations in the apparent source size if scattering is important. Comparisons with available data argue that scattering is important (and indeed is the dominant contributor to the apparent source size) and that the radiation source is located in the outer heliosphere. Other evidence that scattering is important, such as the fluctuations in apparent source direction and intensity, are also identified. The effects of scattering should be included in future analyses of the 2-3 kHz emissions.

Cairns, Iver H.↗

Validation of POLDER/ADEOS data using a ground-based lidar network: Preliminary results for semi-transparent and cirrus clouds

At mid and tropical latitudes, cirrus clouds are present more than 50% of the time in satellites observations. Due to their large spatial and temporal coverage, and associated low temperatures, cirrus clouds have a major influence on the Earth-Ocean-Atmosphere energy balance through their effects on the incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation. At present the impact of cirrus clouds on climate is well recognized but remains to be asserted more precisely, for their optical and radiative properties are not very well known. In order to understand the effects of cirrus clouds on climate, their optical and radiative characteristics of these clouds need to be determined accurately at different scales in different locations i.e. latitude. Lidars are well suited to observe cirrus clouds, they can detect very thin and semi-transparent layers, and retrieve the clouds geometrical properties i.e. altitude and multilayers, as well as radiative properties i.e. optical depth, backscattering phase functions of ice crystals. Moreover the linear depolarization ratio can give information on the ice crystal shape. In addition, the data collected with an airborne version of POLDER (POLarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectances) instrument have shown that bidirectional polarized measurements can provide information on cirrus cloud microphysical properties (crystal shapes, preferred orientation in space). The spaceborne version of POLDER-1 has been flown on ADEOS-1 platform during 8 months (October 96 - June 97), and the next POLDER-2 instrument will be launched in 2000 on ADEOS-2. The POLDER-1 cloud inversion algorithms are currently under validation. For cirrus clouds, a validation based on comparisons between cloud properties retrieved from POLDER-1 data and cloud properties inferred from a ground-based lidar network is currently under consideration. We present the first results of the validation.

Chepfer, H.↗

Growth of Matrix Cracks During Intermediate Temperature Stress Rupture of a SiC/SiC Composite in Air

The crack density of woven Hi-Nicalon(sup TM) (Nippon Carbon, Japan) fiber, BN interphase, melt-infiltrated SiC matrix composites was determined for specimens subjected to tensile stress rupture at 815 C. A significant amount of matrix cracking occurs due to the growth of fiber-bridged microcracks even at stresses below the run-out condition. This increased cracking corresponded to time dependent strain accumulation and acoustic emission activity during the constant load test. However, the portion of the rupture specimens subjected to cooler temperatures (< 600 C than the hot section had significantly lower crack densities compared to the hotter regions. From the acoustic emission and time dependent strain data it can be inferred that most of the matrix crack growth occurred within the first few hours of the tensile rupture experiment. The crack growth was attributed to an interphase recession mechanism that is enhanced by the presence of a thin carbon layer between the fiber and the matrix as a result of the composite fabrication process. One important consequence of matrix crack growth at the lower stresses is poor retained strength at room temperature for specimens that did not fail.

Morscher, Gregory N.↗

An Assessment of Our Ability to Model the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere in Interactive Climate Models

The physics of the upper troposphere is dominated by the different phases of water, while the lower stratosphere is governed by the presence of ozone. The tropopause may be regarded as the layer which separates the regions where stratospheric and tropospheric processes dominate the physics, but it is clearly not a smooth transition level. Modelling this region in comprehensive climate models is complicated, partly because of the constraints inherent in numerical methods (such as the finite resolution used in models) and partly because of our incomplete knowledge of the physical and chemical interactions which occur (such as the phase transitions of water and the composition of aerosols). However, studies of stratospheric impacts on climate change clearly require the tropopause region to be modelled with a high degree of accuracy. This paper will examine how well we can currently model the structure and dynamics of the tropopause region; this includes some comparisons of the simulated atmospheric composition with observational estimates of these species, some studies of discrepancies between forecasts and observations in the Data Assimilation System of the Data Assimilation office, and inferences for sparsely observed quantities. The analysis will focus on meteorological quantities, physical forcing mechanisms, and the transport and interactions of trace species.

Pawson, Steven↗

Volatile Cycling and Layering on Mars: Observations, Theory and Modeling

With the release of Mars Odyssey Gamma Ray Spectrometer (GRS) results, which indicate the presence of vast reservoirs of near-surface ice in the martian polar regions, we are presented with an exquisite dilemma. These deposits, which are present as far down as 60 deg. latitude in both hemispheres, are consistent with the suggestion of thermal models that ice will be best protected in these extended regions during periods of higher obliquity. However, the current paradigm regarding the placement of these deposits, i.e., diffusive deposition of water vapor, appears to be inconsistent with the large volume mixing ratios (approx. 70%) inferred from the GRS data. This apparent conflict argues that diffusion alone cannot be the primary mechanism for the creation of these reservoirs, and that an alternate, large-scale process should be considered.

M A Mischna↗

Polar and Non-Polar Layers on Mars: A Single Mechanism for Formation?

The recent discovery of vast quantities of near-subsurface ice in both polar regions of Mars by the Mars Odyssey Gamma Ray Spectrometer (GRS) has presented us with an interesting quandary. On one hand, these deposits, found poleward of 60 deg in both hemispheres, are consistent with thermal models suggesting ice will be best protected in these regions during periods of high obliquity. On the other hand, the current paradigm regarding the placement of these deposits, i.e., diffusive deposition of water vapor, appears to be inconsistent with the large volume mixing ratios (approx. 90%) inferred from the GRS data. This incongruity argues that diffusion alone cannot be the primary mechanism for the creation of these reservoirs, and that an alternate, large-scale process should be considered.

Mischna, M. A.↗

Estimating and Modeling S-Band Lunar Radar Backscatter

This viewgraph presentation reviews the estimates and modeling for S-band Lunar radar backscatter. By way of basic review it shows the average lunar radar behavior, the average lunar radar cross-section at 3.8-cm, 23-cm and 68-cm wavelengths. It also reviews the equations for estimating 13 cm scattering from 3.8 and 23 cm data. Charts show the inferred 13-cm average scattering derived from interpolation of the 1960's observations and the modeled 13-cm average scattering. It also reviews the scattering differences: between linear polarizations from slopes from roughness.

lunar↗

The Epiregolith

The physical properties of the lunar regolith were originally inferred from remotely sensed data, first from the Earth and later from orbiting spacecraft. The Surveyor landings and the Apollo surface explorations produced a more concrete characterization of the macroscopic properties. In general, the upper regolith consists of a loosely consolidated layer centimeters thick underlain by a particulate but extremely compacted layer to depths of meters or tens of meters. The median particle size as determined by mechanical sieving in terrestrial laboratories is several tens of micrometers. However, the comminuting processes that form the layer produce particles in all sizes down to manometers. The smallest particles, having a high surface to volume ratio, tend to be electrostatically bound to larger particles and are quite difficult to separate mechanically in the laboratory. Particle size distributions determined from lunar soil samples often group particles smaller than 10 micrometers.

Mendell, Wendell W.↗

Temperature Dependence of Factors Controlling Isoprene Emissions

We investigated the relationship of variability in the formaldehyde (HCHO) columns measured by the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) to isoprene emissions in the southeastern United States for 2005-2007. The data show that the inferred, regional-average isoprene emissions varied by about 22% during summer and are well correlated with temperature, which is known to influence emissions. Part of the correlation with temperature is likely associated with other causal factors that are temperature-dependent. We show that the variations in HCHO are convolved with the temperature dependence of surface ozone, which influences isoprene emissions, and the dependence of the HCHO column to mixed layer height as OMI's sensitivity to HCHO increases with altitude. Furthermore, we show that while there is an association of drought with the variation in HCHO, drought in the southeastern U.S. is convolved with temperature.

Duncan, Bryan N.↗

Modeling Harris Current Sheets with Themis Observations

Current sheets are ubiquitous in nature. occurring in such varied locations as the solar atmosphere. the heliosphere, and the Earth's magnetosphere. The simplest current sheet is the one-dimensional Harris neutral sheet, with the lobe field strength and scale-height the only free parameters. Despite its simplicity, confirmation of the Harris sheet as a reasonable description of the Earth's current sheet has remained elusive. In early 2009 the orbits of the 5 THEMIS probes fortuitously aligned such that profiles of the Earth's current sheet could be modeled in a time dependent manner. For the few hours of alignment we have calculated the time history of the current sheet parameters (scale height and current) in the near-Earth region. during both quiet and active times. For one particular substorm. we further demonstrate good quantitative agreement with the diversion of cross tail current inferred from the Harris modeling with the ionospheric current inferred from ground magnetometer data.

Kepko, L.↗

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Gilkey, Kelly M.↗

Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

sea level↗

Probabilistic Prognosis of Non-Planar Fatigue Crack Growth

Quantifying the uncertainty in model parameters for the purpose of damage prognosis can be accomplished utilizing Bayesian inference and damage diagnosis data from sources such as non-destructive evaluation or structural health monitoring. The number of samples required to solve the Bayesian inverse problem through common sampling techniques (e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo) renders high-fidelity finite element-based damage growth models unusable due to prohibitive computation times. However, these types of models are often the only option when attempting to model complex damage growth in real-world structures. Here, a recently developed high-fidelity crack growth model is used which, when compared to finite element-based modeling, has demonstrated reductions in computation times of three orders of magnitude through the use of surrogate models and machine learning. The model is flexible in that only the expensive computation of the crack driving forces is replaced by the surrogate models, leaving the remaining parameters accessible for uncertainty quantification. A probabilistic prognosis framework incorporating this model is developed and demonstrated for non-planar crack growth in a modified, edge-notched, aluminum tensile specimen. Predictions of remaining useful life are made over time for five updates of the damage diagnosis data, and prognostic metrics are utilized to evaluate the performance of the prognostic framework. Challenges specific to the probabilistic prognosis of non-planar fatigue crack growth are highlighted and discussed in the context of the experimental results.

Leser, Patrick E.↗

A Framework for Inferring Taxonomic Class of Asteroids.

Introduction: Taxonomic classification of asteroids based on their visible / near-infrared spectra or multi band photometry has proven to be a useful tool to infer other properties about asteroids. Meteorite analogs have been identified for several taxonomic classes, permitting detailed inference about asteroid composition. Trends have been identified between taxonomy and measured asteroid density. Thanks to NEOWise (Near-Earth-Object Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer) and Spitzer (Spitzer Space Telescope), approximately twice as many asteroids have measured albedos than the number with taxonomic classifications. (If one only considers spectroscopically determined classifications, the ratio is greater than 40.) We present a Bayesian framework that provides probabilistic estimates of the taxonomic class of an asteroid based on its albedo. Although probabilistic estimates of taxonomic classes are not a replacement for spectroscopic or photometric determinations, they can be a useful tool for identifying objects for further study or for asteroid threat assessment models. Inputs and Framework: The framework relies upon two inputs: the expected fraction of each taxonomic class in the population and the albedo distribution of each class. Luckily, numerous authors have addressed both of these questions. For example, the taxonomic distribution by number, surface area and mass of the main belt has been estimated and a diameter limited estimate of fractional abundances of the near earth asteroid population was made. Similarly, the albedo distributions for taxonomic classes have been estimated for the combined main belt and NEA (Near Earth Asteroid) populations in different taxonomic systems and for the NEA population specifically. The framework utilizes a Bayesian inference appropriate for categorical data. The population fractions provide the prior while the albedo distributions allow calculation of the likelihood an albedo measurement is consistent with a given taxonomic class. These inputs allows calculation of the probability an asteroid with a specified albedo belongs to any given taxonomic class.

Asteroids↗

Automated Resonance Fitting for Nuclear Data Evaluation

Global and national efforts to deliver high-quality nuclear data to users have a wide-ranging impact, affecting applications in national security, reactor operations, basic science, medicine, and more. Cross section evaluation is a major part of this effort, combining theory and experimentation to produce recommended values and uncertainties for reaction probabilities. Resonance region evaluation is a specialized type of nuclear data evaluation that can require significant manual effort and months of time from expert scientists. In this article, non-convex non-linear optimization methods are combined with concepts of inferential statistics to infer a resonance model from experimental data in an automated manner that is not dependent on prior evaluation(s). This methodology aims to enhance the workflow of a resonance evaluator by minimizing time, effort, and the potential for bias from prior assumptions, while enhancing reproducibility and documentation, thereby addressing well-known challenges in the field.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗