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DOE OSTI2026

Probability of Hydrogen Ignition: A Landscape Review and Gaps Assessment

The primary hazard of a leak from a hydrogen system is due to the immediate or delayed ignition of the fuel leading to a jet flame or explosion. Therefore, understanding the hydrogen ignition probability is critical for analyzing the risk of hydrogen systems. This report reviews the current understanding of hydrogen ignition mechanisms and methods for modeling their probability. The stoichiometry, ignition strength, and ignition source temperature are all important characteristics that can affect both the probability of ignition and the outcome of the subsequent combustion event. A brief review of diffusion ignition demonstrates that ignition probability models must account for seemingly spontaneous ignition of hydrogen in addition to scenarios where the ignition source is readily identified. State-of-the art models for both immediate and delayed ignition probabilities are presented, including different physical aspects of the scenarios (e.g., flow rate, ignition source characteristics) that are considered in the different modeling approaches. Current models often fail to account for the unique properties of hydrogen compared to other fuels, and most lack rigorous validation with hydrogen as a fuel. A fault tree framework is proposed to systematically evaluate the probability of ignition by integrating various ignition mechanisms and their uncertainties. Furthermore, this type of framework could enable additional insights into the most important mechanisms and would enable uncertainty quantification in risk assessment modeling. Recommendations for future research include the need for experimental validation of ignition models and the development of comprehensive methodologies that incorporate the specifics of hydrogen behavior in real-world scenarios.

hydrogen↗

DOE OSTI2025

Explainable Machine Learning for Functional Data

Black-box machine learning models are recognized as useful tools for prediction applications, but the algorithmic complexity of some models causes interpretation challenges. Explainability methods have been proposed to provide insight into these models, but there is little research focused on supervised modeling with functional data inputs. We argue that, especially in applications of high consequence, it is important to explicitly model the functional dependence in a black-box analysis to not obscure or misrepresent patterns in explanations. As such, we propose the V ariable importance E xplainable E lastic S hape A nalysis (VEESA) pipeline for training supervised machine learning models with functional inputs. The pipeline is an analysis process that includes the data preprocessing, modeling, and post-hoc explanations. The preprocessing is done using elastic functional principal components analysis, which accounts for vertical and horizontal variability in functional data and, ultimately, allows for explanations in the original data space that identify the important functional variability without bias due to correlated variables. Here, we demonstrate the pipeline on two high-consequence applications: explosives classification for national security and inkjet printer identification in forensic science. The applications exhibit the VEESA pipeline’s ability to provide an understanding of the characteristics of the functional data useful for prediction. Code for implementing the pipeline is available in the veesa R package (and supplemental python code).

Elastic Shape Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2024

Addressing Consequence within Operational Risk (O.T. Gagnon III) 9-18-2024

Addressing Consequence within Operational Risk: Why threats and security are just not that important! When dealing with cyber or physical risk within any critical infrastructure (CI) environment, don’t concern yourself with vulnerabilities and threats, at least not at first! Also, don’t be overly fixated on “securing the systems” within the organization. The endeavor of tackling operational risk focused on consequences in any critical infrastructure environment to include the complex Aviation ecosystem is challenging even for the most resourced entity but can be advanced though a simplified approach: identifying, binning, and prioritizing the infrastructure environment. While no two entities within a single element of the 16 critical infrastructure sectors are exactly alike when it comes to risk, there is a basic process to move toward a greater understanding of operational risk through becoming more informed about the infrastructure environment in which the entity exists. The process starts with bringing internal and external stakeholders and subject matter experts together to analyze key areas such as Information Technology (IT) and Operational Technology (OT) components and points of convergence, analyzing internal and external cyber and physical dependencies, accounting for explosive growth in devices and wireless technology, and leveraging the contributions of people inside and outside the operational environment. Attaining a common understanding of the infrastructure environment as part of addressing consequences within operational risk is not easy to do or resource light, but the process outlined provides the framework to further any entity’s efforts in this space. When it comes to cyber risks, before an organization can consider vulnerabilities within and threats to its operations, it must first have a solid understanding of the consequences existing inside its infrastructure environment. Idaho National Lab’s Consequence-Driven, Cyber-Informed Engineering is offered as an example of this approach to effective and efficient cyber risk mitigation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bi-metallic anode for amplitude modulated magnetron

An anode structure for a magnetron provides for low eddy currents and efficient water cooling. The anode structure may be made by machining a bimetal blank including an out layer of a first metal and an inner layer of a second metal and formed by explosion bonding. The second metal has a resistivity lower than first metal and a thermal conductivity higher than the first metal. The machining may result in the anode structure with vanes each having a center (tip) portion made of the second metal and the rest made of the first metal. The machined anode structure may be coated with the second metal.

Neubauer, Michael L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bi-metallic anode for amplitude modulated magnetron

Neubauer, Michael L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Glimpsing Physics of Nano-Hz Gravitational Waves in Neutrinos from Core-Collapse Supernovae

The growing evidence for nano-hertz gravitational waves, from NANOGrav and other observations, may be pointing to a cosmological first-order phase transition at temperatures of $\mathcal{O}(10-100)\;\mathrm{MeV}$. Such an interpretation requires dynamics beyond the Standard Model in this energy range. If so, it may well be the case that core-collapse supernova explosions would recreate the first-order phase transition leaving a unique imprint on the spectrum of neutrinos emitted in the initial few seconds. This scenario is also suggestive of a low-mass seesaw mechanism to explain neutrino masses. We outline the prospects for future observations of Galactic supernovae to uncover the signals of this scenario, which could get further confirmation with additional pulsar timing array data establishing the primordial origin of the observed nano-hertz gravitational waves.

Davoudiasl, Hooman [Brookhaven] (ORCID:00000003348↗

DOE OSTI2024

Removal and Deactivation of Bond Sodium from Fast Reactor Blanket Materials

The disposition of sodium-bonded spent nuclear fuel and blanket materials in a repository is complicated by the presence of sodium metal that is used as a thermal bond between the uranium metal fuel and blanket slugs and their cladding. The concern is that the metallic sodium could react with water, producing explosive hydrogen gas, or could exhibit a pyrophoric character. Thus, experimental studies were performed to investigate and demonstrate the removal and deactivation of bond sodium from blanket material in a dry environment. Specifically, bond sodium was removed from unirradiated Fermi-1 blanket elements and an assembly via a melt-drain-evaporate process using elevated temperature and reduced pressure. The effectiveness of sodium metal removal from the blanket materials and their associated cladding was =99.9998%, based on post-test quantitative analyses. The separated sodium metal was collected and subsequently deactivated by reacting it in a molten state with a controlled addition of ammonium chloride particles atop a molten salt medium. In this process sodium chloride is formed and assimilates into the salt pool. The subsequent deactivation of the bond sodium produced a solid ingot of sodium chloride, potassium chloride, lithium chloride, and cesium chloride that was devoid of sodium metal based on post-test analyses of the salt product. Both the sodium removal and deactivation operations were conducted within a dry inert atmosphere enclosure. The results of this study substantiate a path forward for the disposition of sodium-bonded blanket materials, including 34 metric tons heavy metal in irradiated Fermi-1 blanket material currently stored at Idaho National Laboratory.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

PSA 2025 DPRA for Cyber Optimization

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Evaluating defense options should include quantitative evaluation of overall effectiveness to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation and have difficulty with time dependent scenarios. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related integrity is a requirement set by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. But companies are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want reliability analysis while optimizing cost, which requires more than safety modeling methods. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with timing and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues such as state-base explosion found in Markov-based tools. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Application of Indirect Quantification of 133mXe to Calibration of HPGe Detector

The INL Noble Gas Laboratory provides intercomparison samples for the noble gas analysis laboratories as part of the CTBTO PrepCom IMS. Xe-133m is one of the four relevant radionuclides in nuclear explosion monitoring. Without commercially available Xe-133m calibration standards laboratories must create and improve calibration methods. Improvements in calibration methods at the INL NGL benefit the CTBTO PrepCom through better certified values for Xe-133m intercomparison samples. Calibration of High Purity Germanium detectors for Xe-133m quantification is complicated by the coexistence of Xe-133 in samples under analysis. Xe-133 is typically produced in larger quantities, has higher gamma emission probabilities, and its gammas are detected more efficiently than Xe-133m. Xe-133m activity of samples can be indirectly inferred through the 133:133m activity ratio of a batch of material, and the Xe-133 counts in the assay of a small aliquot of the same material. This indirect quantification method can be leveraged to perform detector calibrations for quantification of Xe-133m. Calibrations can be performed by inferring the Xe-133m to certify the sample, and direct counting to determine detector efficiency. A comparison of method results will be shown.

133mXe↗

DOE OSTI2026

Induction Melter Processing Alternatives for High Level Radioactive Wastes – 26198

This work investigates the potential to vitrify nuclear fuel directly, as well as the vitrification potential associated with experimental dissolver solutions. Greater understanding of the exothermicity is needed to quantify processing risk, especially with respect to potential phase changes and associated explosion hazards present in some systems. Thermal analysis was carried out on various simulants to elucidate the exothermic reaction potential from solid metal dissolution in glass and from the drying of alternative process dissolver solutions. Results from experimental testing of simulants to demonstrate vitrification potential and compatibility indicate that alternative dissolver flowsheets suppress the heat released during processing and that common silicate- and phosphate- based glass systems are potential candidates for direct vitrification. Direct vitrification (conversion) of fuel simulants was assessed using laboratory scale glass melts to obtain qualitative information on dissolution rates and waste loadings. Initial tests were successful to dissolve and incorporate metal directly into glass, although the kinetics and limits of dissolution and incorporation into glass are not fully understood.

Amoroso, Jake [Savannah River National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of moment-based, energy integrated neutrino transport on microphysics and ejecta in binary neutron star mergers

We present an extensive study of the effects of neutrino transport in three-dimensional general relativistic radiation hydrodynamics (GRHD) simulations of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers using our moment-based, energy-integrated neutrino radiation transport (M1) scheme. Here, we consider a total of eight BNS configurations, while varying equation of state models, mass ratios, and grid resolutions, for a total of 16 simulations. We find that M1 neutrino transport is crucial in modeling the local absorption of neutrinos and the deposition of lepton number throughout the medium. We provide an in-depth look at the effects of neutrinos on the fluid dynamics and luminosity during the late inspiral and postmerger phases, the properties of ejecta and outflow, and the postmerger nucleosynthesis. The simulations presented in this work comprise an extensive study of the combined effect of the equation of state and M1 neutrino transport in GRHD simulations of BNS mergers, and establish that the solution provided by our M1 scheme is robust across system properties.

150 ≤ A ≤ 18959 ≤ A ≤ 8990 ≤ A ≤ 149↗

DOE OSTI2026

Gamma-ray signatures of 𝑟-process radioactivity from the collapse of magnetized white dwarfs

We predict the gamma-ray line emission from 𝑟-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta of the accretion-induced collapse (AIC) of a magnetized, rapidly rotating white dwarf. Using ejecta from a two-dimensional general-relativistic neutrino-magnetohydrodynamic simulation, further evolved with a radiation-hydrodynamics code coupled to an in situ nuclear reaction network, we construct angle-dependent gamma-ray spectra in the 0.01–10 MeV band via composition-dependent ray tracing through the ejecta. The emission between ∼1 and 10 d is dominated by 132 I (𝑡 1/2 = 2.3 h), continuously replenished by the decay of its parent 132 Te (𝑡 1/2 = 3.2 d), with additional contributions from 131 I, 133 Xe, and 132 Te . At 𝑡 ≳ 20 d, 56 Co (from 56 Ni decay) becomes the primary emitter. The simultaneous presence of 𝑟 process and iron-peak gamma-ray lines is distinctive of AIC ejecta and absent in binary neutron star mergers, where iron-peak nuclei are generally not synthesized. Comparing with the 3⁢𝜎 continuum sensitivities of planned MeV gamma-ray telescopes (COSI, AMEGO-X, e-ASTROGAM, GRAMS, GammaTPC), we find the brightest 𝑟-process lines detectable to ∼10 Mpc by GammaTPC and GRAMS, with the signal approaching their sensitivity threshold at 30 Mpc. As a result, the 𝑟-process spectral features survive time integration over ∼30 d exposures, demonstrating robustness against the long observation times required by gamma-ray detectors.

Nuclear reactions↗

DOE OSTI2024

Kilonova light-curve interpolation with neural networks

Kilonovae are the electromagnetic transients created by the radioactive decay of freshly synthesized elements in the environment surrounding a neutron star merger. To study the fundamental physics in these complex environments, kilonova modeling requires, in part, the use of radiative transfer simulations. The microphysics involved in these simulations results in high computational cost, prompting the use of emulators for parameter inference applications. Utilizing a training set of 22 248 high-fidelity simulations (composed of 412 unique ejecta parameter combinations evaluated at 54 viewing angles), we use a neural network to efficiently train on existing radiative transfer simulations and predict light curves for new parameters in a fast and computationally efficient manner. Our neural network can generate millions of new light curves in under a minute. We discuss our emulator's degree of off-sample reliability and parameter inference of the AT2017gfo observational data. Finally, we discuss tension introduced by multiband inference in the parameter inference results, particularly with regard to the neural network's recovery of viewing angle. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Exploring composition mixing in kilonova ejecta with ray-by-ray simulations

Binary neutron star merger (BNSM) ejecta are considered a primary repository of r-process nucleosynthesis and a source of the observed heavy-element abundances. We implement composition mixing into ray-by-ray radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of BNSM ejecta, coupled with an online nuclear network (NN). We model mixing via a gradient-based mixing approximation that evolves simultaneously with the hydrodynamics. Here, we find that mixing occurs in regions where the electron fraction changes rapidly. While mixing smooths composition gradients in transition regions, it has a negligible impact on the heavy-element yields. This is because the primary r-process site (the equatorial ejecta) is initially homogeneous in free neutrons, leaving no strong gradients for mixing to act upon. In each angular ray, the abundances of the most produced elements are robust under mixing, while the less abundant ones are more affected. The total global abundances change only slightly from mixing, since each angular ray contributes its most abundant elements. Furthermore, the predicted kilonova light curves show only minor reddening, with differences below the detectability of state-of-the-art telescopes. In general, we do not observe significant effects from mixing in the time span of the r-process. Consequently, mixing only leads to minor variations in abundances and light curves in ray-by-ray simulations.

Explosive burning↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of 31 P levels near the proton threshold with nuclear resonance fluorescence and the impact on the 30 Si (𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 31 P thermonuclear rate

We investigated the nuclear structure of 31 P near the proton threshold using nuclear resonance fluorescence (NRF) to refine the properties of key resonances in the 30 Si (𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 31 P reaction, which is critical for nucleosynthesis in stellar environments. Excitation energies and spin-parities were determined for several states, including two unobserved resonances at 𝐸 𝑟 = 18.7keV and 𝐸 𝑟 = 50.5keV. The angular correlation analysis enabled the first unambiguous determination of the orbital angular momentum transfer for these states. These results provide a significant update to the 30 Si (𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 31 P thermonuclear reaction rate, with direct implications for models of nucleosynthesis in globular clusters and other astrophysical sites. The revised rate is substantially lower than previous estimates at temperatures below 200 MK, affecting predictions for silicon isotopic abundances in stellar environments. Furthermore, our work demonstrates the power of NRF in constraining nuclear properties, and provides a framework for future studies of low-energy resonances relevant to astrophysical reaction rates.

20 ≤ A ≤ 38↗

DOE OSTI2025

PySolate : A Python‐Based Thresholding Tool to Denoise or Designal Seismic Waveforms Based on the Continuous Wavelet Transform

PySolate is a Python‐based toolset that implements the continuous wavelet transform and nonlinear thresholding operations to denoise or designal seismic data, following Langston and Mousavi (2019). This filtering approach can remove microseismic noise to isolate intermediate‐period seismic signals that are key to enabling full‐waveform modeling and analysis of smaller‐magnitude regional events. This approach is best for the application to signals with frequency or time separation of signal and noise, in contrast to Fourier analysis, which is effective when signal and noise are separated in frequency. We demonstrate the Python toolset using the six announced Democratic People’s Republic of Korea declared nuclear tests, showing the effectiveness of isolating the seismic signal compared to standard bandpass filtering. In conclusion, we also demonstrate the ease of using the toolset with any Python processing tools.

Asia↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effect of Sample Mass, Confinement, and Preheating Time on the Thermal Response of LLM‐105: Experiments and Kinetic Analysis

Various small-scale experiments were performed to provide data for developing a model to predict the thermal response of LLM-105 over a wide range of conditions. The thermal decomposition of LLM-105 was studied as a function of sample mass, confinement of volatile products, and preheating time in both isothermal and ramped heating experiments. The thermal decomposition of LLM-105 is a two-step process, as shown by the two exothermic peaks in the heat flow profiles, which were fitted to two nth-order autocatalytic reaction models with a similar activation energy of ∼289 kJ/mol. The magnitude and shape of these peaks varied with sample mass and confinement. Increasing sample mass enhanced the second exotherm with respect to the first one, while increasing the level of confinement promoted a transition from a sublimation-dominated regime towards thermal decomposition. The effect of LLM-105 particle size on the rate of weight loss was evident for open-pan experiments, where bigger particles sublimed at lower temperatures than smaller particles. Thermal response and solid residue composition of LLM-105 samples were analyzed following preheating for different durations. Longer preheating times caused a shift of the second exotherm to lower temperatures and a decrease in the reaction enthalpy, confirming that LLM-105 decay is a consecutive reaction mechanism, probably autocatalytic. In conclusion, the kinetic model derived from ramped experiments was validated against the measured LLM-105 fraction remaining and the enthalpy remaining of the solid residue as a function of preheating times and showed good agreement.

Chemistry - Chemical explosives↗