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Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) Field Campaign Report

Convective clouds serve a critical role in the Earth’s energy and water cycles through their transport of heat, moisture, momentum, and chemical species through the troposphere driving the global circulation (e.g., Hartmann et al. 1984, Del Genio et al. 2012, Su et al. 2014). On more local scales, convective clouds impact the atmospheric heating profile through diabatic heating effects, removal of water from the atmospheric column through precipitation, and conditioning of the local environment impacting further development of clouds (e.g., Sullivan and Voigt 2021). These critical roles underscore the importance of realistic representation of convective processes across scales of models from large-eddy simulation (LES), to convection-permitting models (CPM; e.g., Kendon et al. 2020, Marinescu et al. 2021), to numerical weather prediction (NWP) models used for operational weather forecasting, to Earth system models used to predict climate sensitivity (Sanderson et al. 2011, Sherwood et al. 2014, Tomassini et al. 2014, Zhao et al. 2016, Cronin et al. 2017). A key component of improving model representation of convective clouds is better quantification and parameterization of updraft microphysics and dynamics, including their interactions with the surrounding environment and storm organization (Bony et al. 2015, Hagos and Houze 2016, Donner et al. 2016, Morrison et al. 2020). Aerosol is an important environmental factor that could affect convective clouds and precipitation since cloud droplet and ice formation processes are initiated by it. Andrae et al. (2004) hypothesized that aerosols associated with increased biomass burning particles acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) result in smaller and more monodisperse cloud droplets leading to suppression of warm rain formation, ultimately leading to more cloud water being lofted above the freezing level based on observations in the Amazon region. The subsequent increase in latent heat release increases the buoyancy of rising convective parcels invigorating the deep convection. This work was followed by a description of the theoretical basis for this “cold-phase invigoration” by Rosenfeld et al. (2008), who argued that it could have a significant effect for deep convective clouds with warm cloud-bases. Several modeling studies (e.g., Khain et al. 2005, 2009, van den Heever et al. 2006, Fan et al. 2007, 2009, 2012, Lee et al. 2008, Storer et al. 2010, Lebo et al. 2012, Storer and van den Heever 2013, Chen et al. 2020, Dagan et al. 2022) have investigated these aerosol-convection interactions and the environmental factors that influence their relative importance and magnitude. More recently, several studies have indicated that “warm-phase invigoration”, the enhancement of convection through condensational heating, also appears to play a role in enhancing both shallow cumuli (Seiki and Nakajima 2014, Saleeby et al 2015) and deeper tropical convection (Lebo and Seinfeld 2011, Khain et al. 2012, Sheffield et al 2015, Fan et al. 2018, Igel and van den Heever 2021), as well as Houston thunderstorms (Fan et al. 2007, 2020). However, still other studies have provided additional evidence of systematic biases in simulated convective outflow ice size distribution properties, which are consistent with a lack of poorly understood secondary ice production within convective updrafts (e.g., Fridlind et al. 2017). To help address these critical gaps in our understanding of cloud processes, aerosol processes and aerosol-cloud interactions, the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment was designed building upon efforts by the Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation and Climate (ACPC) Initiative (http://acpcintiative.org/), a joint effort of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) that focused on resolving uncertainties in the interactions between aerosol and clouds towards better understanding the role that these interactions play in the climate system. The TRACER campaign was motivated by recommendations from a number of pilot studies undertaken by ACPC (van den Heever et al. 2017, Fridlind et al. 2019, Hu et al. 2019, Fan et al. 2020, Marinescu et al. 2021, Hernandez-Deckers et al. 2022) that pointed towards the southeastern Texas region as a locale where aerosol-convection interactions could be studied owing to the copious occurrence of isolated convection during the summer months accompanied by diverse and significant sources of aerosols from both anthropogenic and natural sources. The TRACER campaign began on 01 October 2021 and extended through 30 September 2022 with an intensive operational period (IOP) during June-September 2022. Three main sites (Table 1) were managed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Evolving Distribution of Relative Humidity Conditional Upon Daily Maximum Temperature in a Warming Climate

Abstract The impacts of heat waves in a warming climate depend not only on changing temperatures but also on changing humidity. Using 35 simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM LENS), we investigate the long‐term evolution of the joint distribution of summer relative humidity (RH) and daily maximum temperature ( Tmax ) near four U.S. cities (New York City, Chicago, Phoenix, and New Orleans) under the high‐emissions Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We estimate the conditional quantiles of RH given Tmax with quantile regression models, using functions of temperature for each city in July for three time periods (1990–2005, 2026–2035, and 2071–2080). Quality‐of‐fit diagnostics indicate that these models accurately estimate conditional quantiles for each city. As expected, each quantile of Tmax increases from 1990–2005 to 2071–2080, while mean RH decreases modestly. Conditional upon a fixed quantile of Tmax , the median and high quantiles of RH decrease, while those of the Heat Index (HI) and dew point both increase. This result suggests that, despite a modest decrease in median relative humidity, heat stress measured by metrics considering both humidity and temperature in a warming climate will increase faster than that measured by temperatures alone would indicate. For a fixed Tmax , the high quantiles of RH (and thus of HI and dew point) increase from 1990–2005 to 2071–2080 in all four cities. This result suggests that the heat stress of a day at a given Tmax will increase in a warming climate due to the increase of RH.

Yuan, Jiacan↗

Different Spatiotemporal Patterns in Global Human Population and Built‐Up Land

Abstract Population concentration and built‐up land expansion are two prominent features of contemporary urbanization. Existing literature on the population aspect of urbanization has mostly focused on national and regional aggregates, and literature on the land development aspect has often relied on spatial case studies of individual cities or their meta‐analyses. Using newly‐available data, here we conduct the first global‐coverage, spatial analysis of the relationship between (changes in) population and built‐up land at multiple spatial scales, and compare to existing common beliefs about urbanization based on individual city studies. We find that population and built‐up land show distinctly different spatial and temporal patterns (with a global correlation coefficient around 0.6). Contrary to common impressions, our results show that during recent decades, developed and developing regions across the world experienced comparable amounts of built‐up land expansion. While meta‐analyses have reported that built‐up land in urban areas expands globally on average twice as fast as population grows, our results show the global change rates of built‐up land and population are similar. Also, most global population, including what national statistics agencies call urban population, reside in areas with low land development levels (which are frequently less than 5% built up). These changes in perspective suggest that urbanization's potential large‐scale impacts may need to be re‐evaluated, and lead to best‐practice recommendations for urbanization modeling and analysis. Especially, the common practice in large‐scale earth system modeling of assuming demographically‐defined urban population resides in areas with medium to high built‐up land development levels should change.

Gao, Jing↗

Simulated Dust Transport in the Convective Boundary Layer

Soil dusts are an important source of aerosol in agricultural regions and can affect the Earth's radiation budget through the modification of cloud properties, and in particular, through their ability to act as ice nucleating particles. In order to impact cloud properties, agricultural soil dusts need to be transported from the point of emission to cloud–relevant altitudes. Vertical transport within the planetary boundary layer is strongly controlled by turbulence and is challenging to represent accurately in regional and global models. Large–eddy simulations (LES) are run at resolutions capable of resolving most of the turbulent energy directly and can thus better simulate vertical transport. In this study, we leverage the LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) large–eddy simulations to simulate vertical transport of agricultural dust within the turbulent boundary layer using a modified version of the stochastic dispersion model FLEXPART–WRF. We find that the modified model is better capable of simulating particle transport due to turbulence, and that particle size was the greatest factor in determining particle lifetime. Individual meteorology and particle density had intermediate effects upon particle transport, while release height had little effect upon simulation results. Finally, we utilize a quasi–single column model (QSCM) approach to determine how our results compare to a parameterized treatment of turbulence. The QSCM simulations led to greater tracer transport out of the boundary layer, with ramifications for any studies utilizing a Lagrangian stochastic model to understand tracer dispersion. Furthermore, these results highlight the importance of accurately simulating turbulence for understanding particle transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Refined Understanding of the Ice Cloud Longwave Scattering Effects in Climate Model

Abstract Because longwave (LW) absorption by greenhouse gases and clouds is more significant than the LW scattering effect by clouds, most climate models neglect cloud LW scattering to save computational costs. Ignoring cloud LW scattering directly overestimates outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). This study included ice‐cloud LW scattering treatment in the Exascale Energy Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 and ran fully‐coupled simulations, prescribed sea surface temperature simulations, and offline radiative transfer calculations to comprehensively assess the impact of ice‐cloud LW scattering on global climate simulation. The instantaneous effect due to ice‐cloud LW scattering reduces the OLR by ∼1 W/m 2 on the global average and 2 W/m 2 on the tropical average. Tropospheric warming and high cloud amount reduction act to partially compensate for such instantaneous OLR reduction caused by the inclusion of LW scattering. When the simulation reaches the equilibrium, the surface warms by 0.66 K on average with respect to the simulation without LW scattering, with the Arctic surface temperature differences more than twice as large as that of the global mean. The impact of including LW scattering on the simulated climate change in response to 4 × CO 2 is also assessed. While including the cloud LW scattering does not significantly modify radiative forcing and total radiative feedback under such a scenario, it results in a 10% more positive cloud feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sub-m s−1 upper limits from a deep HARPS-N radial-velocity search for planets orbiting HD 166620 and HD 144579

ABSTRACT Minimizing the impact of stellar variability in radial velocity (RV) measurements is a critical challenge in achieving the 10 cm s−1 precision needed to hunt for Earth twins. Since 2012, a dedicated programme has been underway with HARPS-N, to conduct a blind RV rocky planets search (RPS) around bright stars in the Northern hemisphere. Here we describe the results of a comprehensive search for planetary systems in two RPS targets, HD 166620 and HD 144579. Using wavelength-domain line-profile decorrelation vectors to mitigate the stellar activity and performing a deep search for planetary reflex motions using a trans-dimensional nested sampler, we found no significant planetary signals in the data sets of either of the stars. We validated the results via data-splitting and injection recovery tests. Additionally, we obtained the 95th percentile detection limits on the HARPS-N RVs. We found that the likelihood of finding a low-mass planet increases noticeably across a wide period range when the inherent stellar variability is corrected for using scalpelsU-vectors. We are able to detect planet signals with Msin i ≤ 1 M⊕ for orbital periods shorter than 10 d. We demonstrate that with our decorrelation technique, we are able to detect signals as low as 54 cm s−1, which brings us closer to the calibration limit of 50 cm s−1 demonstrated by HARPS-N. Therefore, we show that we can push down towards the RV precision required to find Earth analogues using high-precision radial velocity data with novel data-analysis techniques.

Anna John, A. (ORCID:0000000217156939)↗

Quantifying the Impacts of Land-Cover Change on the Hydrologic Response to Hurricane Ida in the Lower Mississippi River Basin

Abstract The Lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) has experienced significant changes in land cover and is one of the most vulnerable regions to hurricanes in the United States. Here, we study the impacts of land-cover change on the hydrologic response to Hurricane Ida in LMRB. By using an integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model, Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model coupled with the three-dimensional ParFlow subsurface flow model (ELM-ParFlow), we simulate the effects of land-cover change on the flood volume and peak timing induced by rainfall from Hurricane Ida. The results show that land-cover changes from 1850 to 2015, which resulted in a smoother surface and less vegetation, exacerbated both flood peak time and volume induced by Hurricane Ida. The effects of land-cover changes can be decomposed into two mechanisms: a smoother surface routes more water faster to a watershed outlet and less vegetation allows more water to contribute to surface runoff. By comparing scenarios in which the two mechanisms were isolated, we found that changes in soil moisture due to vegetation cover change have more dominant effects on floods in the southern part and changes in Manning’s coefficient have the largest effect on floods in the northern part of the LMRB. The study provides important insights into the complex relationship between land-use, land-cover, and hydrologic processes in coastal regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating Resiliency of Transportation Network under Targeted and Potential Climate Change Disruptions

Ensuring robustness and resilience in intermodal transportation systems is essential for the continuity and reliability of global logistics. These systems are vulnerable to various disruptions, including natural disasters and technical failures. Despite significant research on freight transportation resilience, investigating the robustness of the system after targeted and climate-change-driven disruption remains a crucial challenge. Drawing on network science methodologies, this study models the interdependencies within the rail and water transport networks and simulates different disruption scenarios to evaluate system responses. Here, we use the data from the U.S. Department of Energy Volpe Center for network topology and tonnage projections. The proposed framework quantifies deliberate, stochastic, and climate-driven infrastructure failure, using higher resolution downscaled multiple Earth System Models’ simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase version 6. We show that the disruptions of a few nodes could have a larger impact on the total tonnage of freight transport than on network topology. For example, the removal of targeted 20 nodes can bring the total tonnage carrying capacity to 30% with about 75% of the rail freight network intact. This research advances the theoretical understanding of transportation resilience and provides practical applications for infrastructure managers and policymakers. By implementing these strategies, stakeholders and policymakers can better prepare for and respond to unexpected disruptions, ensuring sustained operational efficiency in transportation networks.

Climate Change Disruptions↗

High-Latitude, Low-Altitude SAI: Overview of G6-1.5K-HiLLA Simulations in E3SMv3

This report details a contribution of Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 3 (E3SMv3) simulations to a proposed model intercomparison project funded and organized by Reflective, a nonprofit group studying the possible global impacts of SAI. Using annual feedback control and seasonally-variable injection sites to achieve a desired global near-surface temperature target, the simulated SAI campaign indicates robust maintenance of the 2020-2039 climatic state over 60 years into the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dataset for "FLEXPART-WRF simulations to assess dust transport in the convective boundary layer at the Southern Great Plains site"

Soil dusts are an important source of aerosol in agricultural regions and can affect the Earth’s radiation budget through the modification of cloud properties, and in particular, through their ability to act as ice nucleating particles. In order to impact cloud properties, agricultural soil dusts need to be transported from the point of emission to cloud-relevant altitudes. Vertical transport within the planetary boundary layer is strongly controlled by turbulence and is challenging to represent accurately in regional and global models. Large-eddy simulations (LES) are run at resolutions capable of resolving most of the turbulent energy directly and can thus better simulate vertical transport. In this study, we leverage the LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) large-eddy simulations to simulate vertical transport of agricultural dust within the turbulent boundary layer using a modified version of the stochastic dispersion model FLEXPART-WRF. We find that the modified model is better capable of simulating particle transport due to turbulence, and that particle size was the greatest factor in determining particle lifetime. Individual meteorology and particle density had intermediate effects upon particle transport, while release height had little effect upon simulation results. Finally, we utilize a quasi-single column model (QSCM) approach to determine how our results compare to a parameterized treatment of turbulence. The QSCM simulations led to greater tracer transport out of the boundary layer, with ramifications for any studies utilizing a Lagrangian stochastic model to understand tracer dispersion. These results highlight the importance of accurately simulating turbulence for understanding particle transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating Secondary Aerosol Processes in the Amazon through Molecular-level Characterization of Semi-Volatile Organics

In areas where biogenic emissions are oxidized in the presence of anthropogenic pollutants, it has become increasingly apparent that secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) is substantially enhanced. The Amazon forest is the dominant source of BVOCs globally, and the forest is rapidly being converted to urban and agricultural uses. We participated in a collaborative field study located in the Amazon region around Manaus, Brazil, in 2014 (Green Ocean Amazon; GoAmazon). This study was designed to comprehensively examine how BVOC emissions (specifically, the most highly emitted non-methane hydrocarbon, isoprene, and lesser studied sesquiterpenes) and their interaction with anthropogenic pollution (i.e., nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and black carbon) alter the atmosphere’s oxidative capacity, influence secondary aerosol formation, atmospheric composition and, ultimately, affect the earth’s radiation balance and climate. We provide the first hourly, in-situ measurement of 30 sesquiterpenes and 4 diterpenes, roughly estimating that sesquiterpene oxidation contributes to 10-14% of ozone reactive loss by terpenes and at least 0.4–5% (median 1 %) of total submicron OA mass. However, this is likely a low-end estimate, as evidence for additional unaccounted sesquiterpenes and their oxidation products clearly exists. We also provide new perspectives on sulfate, NO x , and particle acidity influencing isoprene-derived SOA, comparing the central Amazon environment with Southeastern U.S.A. summer, representing clean to polluted conditions, respectively. We find that summed concentrations of isoprene-derived SOA tracers correlated with particulate sulfate spanning three orders of magnitude, suggesting that 1 μg m -3 reduction in sulfate corresponds with at least ~0.5 μg m -3 reduction in isoprene-derived SOA. We also find that SOA mass derived from isoprene oxidation in the presence of NO x is primarily comprised of aerosol sulfate bound with isoprene oxidation products (i.e. organosulfates), ~97% in the Amazon and ~55% in the Southeastern U.S. We infer under natural conditions in high isoprene emission regions, preindustrial aerosol sulfate was almost exclusively isoprene-derived organosulfates, which are traditionally thought as representative of anthropogenic influence. We further report the first field observations showing that particle acidity impacts the distribution of isoprene oxidation tracers in the gas and particle phases, providing physicochemical insight into isoprene SOA formation chemistry. Coupled with other co-located measurements by the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) team and collaborating PIs at our measurement site (called T3), on the G1 aircraft, and at additional field sites (T0, T1, T2) this data set has been used to understand emission, oxidation, and particle formation pathways at the molecular level, to elucidate how these pathways change when influenced by anthropogenic sources, and to evaluate their importance for the atmospheric budget of aerosols and the earth’s radiation balance on regional scales. Recommendations: Further constraint of the role of sesquiterpenes on ozone (O 3 ) reactivity and SOA formation is limited by the availability of authentic standards and synthesized compounds of sesquiterpenes and their oxidation products. Future research efforts should focus on making such standards available via custom synthesis to allow for accurate quantification and focused oxidation experiments that will fully elucidate the chemistry of these compounds in the atmosphere. Further, reductions in aerosol sulfate (via SO 2 emissions control) continues to be one of the most effective methods to reduce SOA formation from isoprene, but the concerted role of ammonia (NH 3 ) gas emissions from (agricultural) industry and other sources requires more investigation to better understand the role of aerosol acidity in SOA formation and potential controls. As GoAmazon particles can be more acidic compared to areas with greater anthropogenic NH 3 emissions, this promotes relatively greater organosulfate (OS) formation from isoprene even in the presence of NO x . Because OS and inorganic sulfate differ in water uptake properties, this implies preindustrial aerosol sulfate (albeit less abundant) may have been less reflective than current earth system models assume. Further research should investigate the radiative impacts of organic vs inorganic sulfate in aerosols to improve model representation. Finally, future work (currently underway) should include constraint of the contributions of monoterpene (C 10 H 16 ) BVOCs and biomass burning VOCs as precursors to SOA formation in the region as well as their impacts on radiative forcing in the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

HSW-V v1.0: localized injections of interactive volcanic aerosols and their climate impacts in a simple general circulation model

Abstract. A new set of standalone parameterizations is presented for simulating the injection, evolution, and radiative forcing by stratospheric volcanic aerosols against an idealized Held–Suarez–Williamson (HSW) atmospheric background in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). In this model configuration (HSW with enabled volcanism, HSW-V), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ash are injected into the atmosphere with a specified profile in the vertical, and they proceed to follow a simple exponential decay. The SO2 decay is modeled as a perfect conversion to a long-living sulfate aerosol which persists in the stratosphere. All three species are implemented as tracers in the model framework and are transported by the dynamical core's advection algorithm. The aerosols contribute simultaneously to local heating of the stratosphere and cooling of the surface by a simple plane-parallel Beer–Lambert law applied on two zonally symmetric radiation broadbands in the longwave and shortwave ranges. It is shown that the implementation parameters can be tuned to produce realistic temperature anomaly signatures of large volcanic events. In particular, results are shown for an ensemble of runs that mimic the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. The design requires no coupling to microphysical subgrid-scale parameterizations and thus approaches the computational affordability of prescribed aerosol forcing strategies. The idealized simulations contain a single isolated volcanic event against a statistically uniform climate, where no background aerosols or other sources of externally forced variability are present. HSW-V represents a simpler-to-understand tool for the development of climate source-to-impact attribution methods.

Hollowed, Joseph P. (ORCID:0000000286581672)↗

Quantifying CanESM5 and EAMv1 sensitivities to Mt. Pinatubo volcanic forcing for the CMIP6 historical experiment

Large volcanic eruptions reaching the stratosphere have caused marked perturbations to the global climate including cooling at the Earth's surface, changes in large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns and marked temporary reductions in global ocean heat content. Many studies have investigated these effects using climate models; however, uncertainties remain in the modelled response to these eruptions. This is due in part to the diversity of forcing datasets that are used to prescribe the distribution of stratospheric aerosols resulting from these volcanic eruptions, as well as uncertainties in optical property derivations from these datasets. To improve this situation for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a two-step process was undertaken. First, a combined stratospheric aerosol dataset, the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC; 1979–2016), was constructed. Next, GloSSAC, along with information from ice cores and Sun photometers, was used to generate aerosol distributions, characteristics and optical properties to construct a more consistent stratospheric aerosol forcing dataset for models participating in CMIP6. This “version 3” of the stratospheric aerosol forcing has been endorsed for use in all contributing CMIP6 simulations. Recent updates to the underlying GloSSAC from version 1 to version 1.1 affected the 1991–1994 period and necessitated an update to the stratospheric aerosol forcing from version 3 to version 4. As version 3 remains the official CMIP6 input, quantification of the impact on radiative forcing and climate is both relevant and timely for interpreting results from experiments such as the CMIP6 historical simulations. This study uses two models, the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1), to estimate the difference in instantaneous radiative forcing in simulated post-Pinatubo climate response when using version 4 instead of version 3. Differences in temperature, precipitation and radiative forcings are generally found to be small compared to internal variability. An exception to this is differences in monthly temperature anomalies near 24 km altitude in the tropics, which can be as large as 3 °C following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Terminus: A Versatile Simulator for Space-based Telescopes

Space-based telescopes offer unparalleled opportunities for characterizing exoplanets, solar system bodies, and stellar objects. However, observatories in low-Earth orbits (e.g., Hubble, CHaracterising ExOPlanets Satellite, Twinkle, and an ever-increasing number of cubesats) cannot always be continuously pointed at a target due to Earth obscuration. For exoplanet observations consisting of transit, or eclipse, spectroscopy, this causes gaps in the light curve, which reduces the information content and can diminish the science return of the observation. Terminus, a time-domain simulator, has been developed to model the occurrence of these gaps to predict the potential impact on future observations. The simulator is capable of radiometrically modeling exoplanet observations as well as producing light curves and spectra. Here, Terminus is baselined on the Twinkle mission, but the model can be adapted for any space-based telescope and is especially applicable to those in a low-Earth orbit. Terminus also has the capability to model observations of other targets such as asteroids or brown dwarfs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Impacts of Topography‐Driven Water Redistribution on Terrestrial Water Storage Change in California Through Ecosystem Responses

Abstract Lateral subsurface flow plays an essential role in sustaining the terrestrial ecosystem, but it is not explicitly represented in most Earth System Models. In this study, we implemented an explicit lateral saturated flow model into the E3SM land model (ELM). The model explicitly describes lateral flow in the saturated zone by representing, for each model grid, an idealized hillslope consisting of five hydrologically connected soil columns. We conducted three model experiments driven by 0.125° atmospheric forcing data during 1980–2015 over California using models of the default ELM, a modified version of ELM to enhance infiltration, and the model with the lateral saturated flow model. The simulated runoff, evapotranspiration, and terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from the three simulations were evaluated against available observations, and the model explicitly representing lateral flow performs best. The new model produces greater gridcell‐averaged evapotranspiration especially over the mountainous regions with moderate relief and seasonally dry climates. Most importantly, it improves the modeled seasonal variations, interannual variabilities, and the recent decadal decline of TWSA. Many of these improvements can be attributed to the enhanced ecosystem resilience to droughts as demonstrated by transpiration increases caused by lateral flow. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that subsurface runoff is most sensitive to the ratio between horizontal and vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity, followed by hillslope planforms (convergent, divergent, and uniform), number of columns, and lower boundary conditions. Future work should effectively characterize hillslopes in global models and explore the long‐term influences of lateral water movement on modeled biogeochemical cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Parametric study of an acid baking process for rare earth element recovery from a bituminous-coal source

Acid baking treatment is widely used to extract rare earth elements (REEs) from refractory rare earth bearing minerals such as monazite and xenotime. Since these REE minerals have been identified in coal-based sources, a parametric study was conducted to evaluate the impact and optimize the parametric values associated with the acid-baking process when treating a bituminous coal source. The parameters studied using a three-level statistical experimental program were acid baking time, acid solution concentration, baking temperature, and acid solution-to-solids ratio and each were found to significantly impact REE and contaminant element recovery. An increase in baking temperature up to around 250°C improved the light and heavy REE recovery values by more than 50 absolute percentage points relative to performances achieved when direct leaching. Acid baking was needed to dehydroxylate the clays and liberate the REE minerals, which allowed access for the acid to solubilize the REEs. Acid concentration of the solution used for acid baking was studied as a means of minimizing the amount of acid needed to achieve a target REE recovery. However, thermo-gravimetric and differential scanning calorimetry analysis (TGA-DSC) of sulfuric acid under oxidizing atmosphere revealed that the addition of water decreased the evaporation temperature, which explains the lower REE recovery values obtained when using lower acid concentrations. Using pure sulfuric acid at an acid-to-solid ratio of 0.8:1 resulted in recovery values of around 70% for both LREEs and HREEs. The decomposition reaction time was relatively quick with 65% of the TREEs recovered within the first 10 minutes. Water leaching experiments performed on the acid-baked products under a temperature of 25°C instead of 75°C revealed an increase in REE recovery by 10 absolute percentage points, which was likely due to the high solubility of REE-sulfates at room temperatures.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Abstract. Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Understanding the Drivers of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using a Stochastic Model Hierarchy

The relative importance of ocean and atmospheric dynamics in generating Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) remains an open question. Comparisons between climate models with SLAB and fully-dynamic (FULL) ocean components are often used to explore this question, but cannot reveal how individual ocean processes generate these differences. We build a hierarchy of physically interpretable stochastic models to investigate the contribution of two upper-ocean processes to AMV: the role of seasonal variation and mixed-layer entrainment. This interpretability arises from the stochastic model’s simplified representation of sea surface temperature (SST), considering only the local upper ocean response to white-noise atmospheric forcing and its impact on surface heat exchange. We focus on understanding differences between SLAB and FULL non-eddy resolving pre-industrial control simulations of the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM), and estimate the stochastic model parameters from each respective simulation. Despite its simplicity, the stochastic model reproduces temporal characteristics of SST variability in the SPG, including reemergence, seasonal-to-interannual persistence and power spectra. Furthermore, unrealistically persistent SST of the CESM-SLAB ocean simulation is reproduced in the equivalent stochastic model configuration where the mixed-layer depth (MLD) is constant. The stochastic model also reveals that vertical entrainment primarily damps SST variability, thus explaining why SLAB exhibits larger SST variance than FULL. Here, the stochastic model driven by temporally stochastic, spatially coherent forcing patterns reproduces the canonical AMV pattern. However, the amplitude of low-frequency variability remains underestimated, suggesting a role for ocean dynamics beyond entrainment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗