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NASA NTRS2012

Prior Flaring as a Complement to Free Magnetic Energy for Forecasting Solar Eruptions

From a large database of (1) 40,000 SOHO/MDI line-of-sight magnetograms covering the passage of 1,300 sunspot active regions across the 30 deg radius central disk of the Sun, (2) a proxy of each active region's free magnetic energy measured from each of the active region's central-disk-passage magnetograms, and (3) each active region's full-disk-passage history of production of major flares and fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we find new statistical evidence that (1) there are aspects of an active region's magnetic field other than the free energy that are strong determinants of the active region's productivity of major flares and fast CMEs in the coming few days, (2) an active region's recent productivity of major flares, in addition to reflecting the amount of free energy in the active region, also reflects these other determinants of coming productivity of major eruptions, and (3) consequently, the knowledge of whether an active region has recently had a major flare, used in combination with the active region's free-energy proxy measured from a magnetogram, can greatly alter the forecast chance that the active region will have a major eruption in the next few days after the time of the magnetogram. The active-region magnetic conditions that, in addition to the free energy, are reflected by recent major flaring are presumably the complexity and evolution of the field.

Falconer, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Neutrino Analysis of the September 2010 Crab Nebula Flare and Time-integrated Constraints on Neutrino Emission From the Crab Using IceCube

We present the results for a search of high-energy muon neutrinos with the IceCube detector in coincidence with the Crab nebula flare reported on September 2010 by various experiments. Due to the unusual flaring state of the otherwise steady source we performed a prompt analysis of the 79-string configuration data to search for neutrinos that might be emitted along with the observed gamma-rays. We performed two different and complementary data selections of neutrino events in the time window of 10 days around the flare. One event selection is optimized for discovery of E(sub nu)(sup -2) neutrino spectrum typical of 1st order Fermi acceleration. A similar event selection has also been applied to the 40-string data to derive the time-integrated limits to the neutrino emission from the Crab [35]. The other event selection was optimized for discovery of neutrino spectra with softer spectral index and TeV energy cut-offs as observed for various galactic sources in gamma-rays. The 90% CL best upper limits on the Crab flux during the 10 day flare are 4.73 x 10(exp -11) per square centimeter per second TeV (sup -1) for an E(sub nu) (sup -2) neutrino spectrum and 2.50 x 10(exp -10) per square centimeter per second TeV(sup -1) for a softer neutrino spectra of E(sub nu)(sup -2.7), as indicated by Fermi measurements during the flare. IceCube has also set a time-integrated limit on the neutrino emission of the Crab using 375.5 days of livetime of the 40-string configuration data. This limit is compared to existing models of neutrino production from the Crab and its impact on astrophysical parameters is discussed. The most optimistic predictions of some models are already rejected by the IceCube neutrino telescope with more than 90% CL.

Stamatikos, M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Solar Flares

Because the Earth resides in the atmosphere of our nearest stellar neighbor, events occurring on the Sun's surface directly affect us by interfering with satellite operations and communications, astronaut safety, and, in extreme circumstances, power grid stability. Solar flares, the most energetic events in our solar system, are a substantial source of hazardous space weather affecting our increasingly technology-dependent society. While flares have been observed using ground-based telescopes for over 150 years, modern space-bourne observatories have provided nearly continuous multi-wavelength flare coverage that cannot be obtained from the ground. We can now probe the origins and evolution of flares by tracking particle acceleration, changes in ionized plasma, and the reorganization of magnetic fields. I will walk through our current understanding of why flares occur and how they affect the Earth and also show several examples of these fantastic explosions.

Savage, Sabrina↗

NASA NTRS2014

Near Infrared Activity Close to the Crab Pulsar Correlated with Giant Gamma-ray Flares

We describe activity observed in the near-infrared correlated with a giant gamma-ray flare in the Crab Pulsar. The Crab Pulsar has been observed by the Fermi and AGILE satellites to flare for a period of 3 to 7 days, once every 1-1.5 years, increasing in brightness by a factor of 3-10 between 100MeV and 1GeV. We used Keck NIRC2 laser guide star adaptive optics imaging to observe the Crab Pulsar and environs before and during the March 2013 flare. We discuss the evidence for the knot as the location of the flares, and the theoretical implications of these observations. Ongoing target-of-opportunity programs hope to confirm this correlation for future flares.

Rudy, Alexander R.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Homologous Flare-CME Events and Their Metric Type II Radio Burst Association

Active region NOAA 11158 produced many flares during its disk passage. At least two of these flares can be considered as homologous: the C6.6 flare at 06:51 UT and C9.4 flare at 12:41 UT on February 14, 2011. Both flares occurred at the same location (eastern edge of the active region) and have a similar decay of the GOES soft X-ray light curve. The associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were slow (334 and 337 km/s) and of similar apparent widths (43deg and 44deg), but they had different radio signatures. The second event was associated with a metric type II burst while the first one was not. The COR1 coronagraphs on board the STEREO spacecraft clearly show that the second CME propagated into the preceding CME that occurred 50 min before. These observations suggest that CME-CME interaction might be a key process in exciting the type II radio emission by slow CMEs.

Type II bursts↗

NASA NTRS2016

Quasi-Periodic Pulsations During the Impulsive and Decay Phases of an X-Class Flare

Quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs) are often observed in X-ray emission from solar flares. To date, it is unclear what their physical origins are. Here, we present a multi-instrument investigation of the nature of QPP during the impulsive and decay phases of the X1.0 flare of 2013 October 28. We focus on the character of the fine structure pulsations evident in the soft X-ray (SXR) time derivatives and compare this variability with structure across multiple wavelengths including hard X-ray and microwave emission. We find that during the impulsive phase of the flare, high correlations between pulsations in the thermal and non-thermal emissions are seen. A characteristic timescale of 20 s is observed in all channels and a second timescale of 55 s is observed in the non-thermal emissions. SXR pulsations are seen to persist into the decay phase of this flare, up to 20 minutes after the non-thermal emission has ceased. We find that these decay phase thermal pulsations have very small amplitude and show an increase in characteristic timescale from 40 s up to 70 s. We interpret the bursty nature of the co-existing multi-wavelength QPPs during the impulsive phase in terms of episodic particle acceleration and plasma heating. The persistent thermal decay phase QPPs are most likely connected with compressive magnetohydrodynamic processes in the post-flare loops such as the fast sausage mode or the vertical kink mode.

Hays, L. A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Interactive Multi-Instrument Database of Solar Flares

The fundamental motivation of the project is that the scientific output of solar research can be greatly enhanced by better exploitation of the existing solar/heliosphere space-data products jointly with ground-based observations. Our primary focus is on developing a specific innovative methodology based on recent advances in "big data" intelligent databases applied to the growing amount of high-spatial and multi-wavelength resolution, high-cadence data from NASA's missions and supporting ground-based observatories. Our flare database is not simply a manually searchable time-based catalog of events or list of web links pointing to data. It is a preprocessed metadata repository enabling fast search and automatic identification of all recorded flares sharing a specifiable set of characteristics, features, and parameters. The result is a new and unique database of solar flares and data search and classification tools for the Heliophysics community, enabling multi-instrument/multi-wavelength investigations of flare physics and supporting further development of flare-prediction methodologies.

Heliophysics↗

NASA NTRS2016

LO Peg: Surface Differential Rotation, Flares, and Spot-Topographic Evolution

Using the wealth of ∼24 yr multiband data, we present an in-depth study of the star-spot cycles, surface differential rotations (SDR), optical flares, evolution of star-spot distributions, and coronal activities on the surface of young, single, main-sequence, ultrafast rotator LO Peg. From the long-term V-band photometry, we derive rotational period of LO Peg to be 0.4231 +/- 0.0001 d. Using the seasonal variations on the rotational period, the SDR pattern is investigated, and shows a solar-like pattern of SDR. A cyclic pattern with period of ∼2.7 yr appears to be present in rotational period variation. During the observations, 20 optical flares are detected with a flare frequency of ∼1 flare per two days and with flare energy of ∼10(exp 31-34) erg. The surface coverage of cool spots is found to be in the range of ∼9-26 per cent. It appears that the high- and low-latitude spots are interchanging their positions. Quasi-simultaneous observations in X-ray, UV, and optical photometric bands show a signature of an excess of X-ray and UV activities in spotted regions.

Karmakar, Subhajeet↗

NASA NTRS2018

An Overview of the XRT Observations for the September 10 2017 X Flare

The September 10 2017 X8 flare was one of the biggest of the current solar cycle, and it was also incredibly well observed. This presentation will review the available XRT data for this flare. XRT observed the initial flux rope eruption, which was also well observed by AIA and SUVI. XRT data is missing for some of the impulsive phase of the flare, but the late phase shows some very interesting features. There is some nice XRT imaging of a plasma sheet above cusp-shaped loops between 16:47 and 18:39 UT. After 18:40 UT, a double loop structure becomes apparent, with a more rounded loop nested within a larger, cusp-shaped structure. The flare loops continue to grow, and at around 1 UT on September 11, supra-arcade down flows and shrinking loops become visible. There is also interesting data in the late phase of this flare from RHESSI and the Expanded Owens Valley Solar Array (EOVSA).

Reeves, Kathy↗

NASA NTRS2019

Escape of Flare-Accelerated Particles in Solar Eruptive Events

Impulsive solar energetic particle events are widely believed to be due to the prompt escape into the interplanetary medium of flare-accelerated particles produced by solar eruptive events. According to the standard model for such events, however, particles accelerated by the flare reconnection should remain trapped in the flux rope comprising the coronal mass ejection. The particles should reach the Earth only much later, along with the bulk ejecta. To resolve this paradox, we have extended our previous axisymmetric model for the escape of flare-accelerated particles to fully three-dimentional (3D) geometries. We report the results of magnetohydrodynamic simluations of a coronal system that consists of a bipolar active region embedded in a background global dipole field structured by solar wind. our simulations show that multiple magnetic reconnection episodes occur prior to and during the coronal mass ejection 9CME) eruption and its interplanetary propagation. In addition to the episodes that build up the flux rope, reconnection between the open field and the CME couples the closed coronal to the open interplanetary field. Flare-accelerated particles initially trapped in the CME thereby gain access to the open interplanetary field along a trail blazed by magnetic reconnection. A key difference between these 3D results and our previous calculations is that the interchange reconnection allows accelerated particles to escape from deep within the CME flux rope. We estimate the spatial extent of the particle-escape channels. The relative timings between flare acceleration and release of the energetic particles through CME/open-field coupling are also determined. All our results compare favorably with observations.

Masson, S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Auroral ovals versus flare ribbons: Optical footprints of explosive magnetic field reconfiguration in Earth’s magnetosphere and the Sun’s corona

Despite drastically different plasma conditions in the two systems, eruptive energy release events in solar active regions and in Earth’s magnetosphere have a lot in common. Both solar active region eruptions and the substorm activity in the nightside magnetosphere are known to be associated with an abrupt large-scale reorganization of the supporting magnetic systems enabling the conversion and dissipation of the stored free magnetic energy. The rate of energy accumulation in either system tends to be by orders of magnitude slower than the energy release rate, leading to the formation of an impulsive loading-unloading cycle involving a relatively long pre-reconnection phase (substorm growth phase, pre-flare stressing of an active region magnetic field), a short and explosive reconnection phase (substorm breakup and expansion, eruptive flares and CMEs), and a prolonged post-reconnection phase (substorm recovery phase and the post-flare active region reconfiguration). In Earth’s magnetosphere, this loading-unloading cycle is diagnosed by monitoring characteristic changes in the particle precipitation pattern in the northern and southern auroral ovals marking the boundary between the open and close magnetic flux. The position, shape, structure, and dynamics of the auroral borealis were shown to communicate critically important information about an upcoming substorm, the location and timing of the initial reconnection onset, and the subsequent return of the magnetosphere to a lower-energy state. On the Sun, a similar role is played by the chromospheric flare ribbons which enable a detailed diagnostics of the overlying reconnecting magnetic field. In this talk, we’ll discuss similarities and differences in using auroral and flare ribbon observations for monitoring eruptive energy release in respectively Earth’s magnetosphere and solar corona. Special emphasis will be placed on the quantitative interpretation of the two types of optical signatures for empirical diagnostics of the underlying reconnection activity and for constraining its theoretical models. We’ll also compare forecasting capabilities of the two types of optical signatures in the context of space weather prediction objectives.

V. M. Uritskiy↗

NASA NTRS2022

Correlated Spatio-temporal Evolution of Extreme-Ultraviolet Ribbons and Hard X-Rays in a Solar Flare

We analyze the structure and evolution of ribbons from the M7.3 SOL2014-04-18T13 flare using ultraviolet images from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), magnetic data from the SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, hard X-ray (HXR) images from the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager, and light curves from the Fermi/Gamma-ray Burst Monitor, in order to infer properties of coronal magnetic reconnection. As the event progresses, two flare ribbons spread away from the magnetic polarity inversion line. The width of the newly brightened front along the extension of the ribbon is highly intermittent in both space and time, presumably reflecting nonuniformities in the structure and/or dynamics of the flare current sheet. Furthermore, the ribbon width grows most rapidly in regions exhibiting concentrated nonthermal HXR emission, with sharp increases slightly preceding the HXR bursts. The light curve of the ultraviolet emission matches the HXR light curve at photon energies above 25 keV. In other regions the ribbon-width evolution and light curves do not temporally correlate with the HXR emission. This indicates that the production of nonthermal electrons is highly nonuniform within the flare current sheet. Our results suggest a strong connection between the production of nonthermal electrons and the locally enhanced perpendicular extent of flare ribbon fronts, which in turn reflects the inhomogeneous structure and/or reconnection dynamics of the current sheet. Despite this variability, the ribbon fronts remain nearly continuous, quasi-one-dimensional features. Thus, although the reconnecting coronal current sheets are highly structured, they remain quasi-two-dimensional and the magnetic energy release occurs systematically, rather than stochastically, through the volume of the reconnecting magnetic flux.

S. J. Naus↗

NASA NTRS2022

Requirements for Progress in Understanding Solar Flare Energy Transport: The Impulsive Phase

Solar flares are a fundamental component of solar eruptive events (SEEs), along with solar energetic particles (SEPs) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Flare emission is the first component of a SEE to impact the Earth’s ionosphere which can set the stage for the later effects of the space weather event. Magnetic reconnection drives SEEs by restructuring the solar coronalmagnetic field, liberating a tremendous amount of energy which is partitioned into various physical manifestations: particle acceleration,mass and magnetic-field eruption, atmospheric heating, and the subsequent emission of radiation as solar flares. In this white paper we discuss the observational and theoretical advances required in order to make substantial progress in understanding the physical processes acting during the impulsive phase of a flare. That is, the initial rapid and intense period in which a tremendous amount of energy is released over the span of several minutes, resulting in the dramatic broadband increase to the solar radiative output. A second white paper by us covers the flare’s gradual phase, that is the decay phase where processes occur over longer timescales.

Graham S. Kerr↗

NASA NTRS2022

Requirements for Progress in Understanding Solar Flare Energy Transport: The Gradual Phase

Solar flares are a fundamental component of solar eruptive events (SEEs), along with solar energetic particles (SEPs) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Flare emission is the first component of a SEE to impact the Earth’s atmosphere which can set the stage for the later arrival of the associated SEPs, CME, and space weather event. Magnetic reconnection drives SEEs by restructuring the solar coronal magnetic field, liberating a tremendous amount of energy which is partitioned into various physical manifestations: particle acceleration, mass and magnetic-field eruption, atmospheric heating, and the subsequent emission of radiation as solar flares. In this white paper we discuss the observational and theoretical advances required in order to make substantial progress in understanding the physical processes acting during the gradual phase of a flare. That is, the decay period, following the initial rapid release of energy during the impulsive phase (see our other white paper). In particular we want to address the unknown processes that sustain the long decay phase of flares and identify the unknown mechanism and magnitude of continued energy injection during the gradual phase.

Graham S Kerr↗

NASA NTRS2023

Revisiting Empirical Solar Energetic Particle Scaling Relations. I. Solar Flares

Aims. The possible influence of solar superflares on the near-Earth space radiation environment are assessed through the investigation of scaling laws between the peak proton flux and fluence of solar energetic particle (SEP) events with the solar flare soft X-ray peak photon flux. Methods. We compiled a catalog of 65 well-connected (W20-90) SEP events during the last three solar cycles covering a period of ∼34 yr (1984–2020) that were associated with flares of class ≥C6.0, and investigated the statistical relations between the recorded peak proton fluxes (I p ) and the fluences (F p ) at a set of integral energies from E > 10, > 30, and > 60 to > 100 MeV versus the associated solar flare peak soft X-ray flux in the 1–8 Å band (F SXR ). Based on the inferred relations, we calculated the integrated energy dependence of the peak proton flux (I p ) and fluence (F p ) of the SEP events, assuming that they follow an inverse power law with respect to energy. Finally, we made use of simple physical assumptions, combining our derived scaling laws, and estimated the upper limits for I p and F p focusing on the flare associated with the strongest ground level enhancement (GLE) directly observed to date (GLE 05 on 23 February 1956), and that inferred for the cosmogenic radionuclide-based SEP event of AD774/775. Results. A scaling law relating I p and F p to the solar soft X-ray peak intensity (F SXR ) as ∝ F 5/6 SXR for a flare with a F SXR = X600 (in the revised scale) is consistent with values of FP inferred for the cosmogenic nuclide event of AD774/775.

Athanasios Papaioannou↗

DOE OSTI2022

Incorporating polar field data for improved solar flare prediction

In this paper, we consider incorporating data associated with the sun’s north and south polar field strengths to improve solar flare prediction performance using machine learning models. When used to supplement local data from active regions on the photospheric magnetic field of the sun, the polar field data provides global information to the predictor. While such global features have been previously proposed for predicting the next solar cycle’s intensity, in this paper we propose using them to help classify individual solar flares. We conduct experiments using HMI data employing four different machine learning algorithms that can exploit polar field information. Additionally, we propose a novel probabilistic mixture of experts model that can simply and effectively incorporate polar field data and provide on-par prediction performance with state-of-the-art solar flare prediction algorithms such as the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). Our experimental results indicate the usefulness of the polar field data for solar flare prediction, which can improve Heidke Skill Score (HSS2) by as much as 10.1%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Search for Solar Flare Neutrinos with the KamLAND Detector

Abstract We report the result of a search for neutrinos in coincidence with solar flares from the GOES flare database. The search was performed on a 10.8 kton-year exposure of KamLAND collected from 2002 to 2019. This large exposure allows us to explore previously unconstrained parameter space for solar flare neutrinos. We found no statistical excess of neutrinos and established 90% confidence level upper limits of 8.4 × 10 7 cm −2 (3.0 × 10 9 cm −2 ) on the electron antineutrino (electron neutrino) fluence at 20 MeV normalized to the X12 flare, assuming that the neutrino fluence is proportional to the X-ray intensity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Model of Double Coronal Hard X-Ray Sources in Solar Flares

A number of double coronal X-ray sources have been observed during solar flares by RHESSI, where the two sources reside at different sides of the inferred reconnection site. However, where and how these X-ray-emitting electrons are accelerated remains unclear. Here we present the first model of the double coronal hard X-ray (HXR) sources, where electrons are accelerated by a pair of termination shocks driven by bidirectional fast reconnection outflows. We model the acceleration and transport of electrons in the flare region by numerically solving the Parker transport equation using velocity and magnetic fields from the macroscopic magnetohydrodynamic simulation of a flux rope eruption. We show that electrons can be efficiently accelerated by the termination shocks and high-energy electrons mainly concentrate around the two shocks. The synthetic HXR emission images display two distinct sources extending to >100 keV below and above the reconnection region, with the upper source much fainter than the lower one. The HXR energy spectra of the two coronal sources show similar spectral slopes, consistent with the observations. Our simulation results suggest that the flare termination shock can be a promising particle acceleration mechanism in explaining the double-source nonthermal emissions in solar flares.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗