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Status and Plans for Reanalysis at NASA/GMAO

Reanalysis plays a critical role in GMAOs goal to enhance NASA's program of Earth observations, providing vital data sets for climate research and the development of future missions. As the breadth of NASAs observations expands to include multiple components of the Earth system, so does the need to assimilate observations from currently uncoupled components of the system in a more physically consistent manner. GMAOs most recent reanalysis of the satellite era, MERRA-2, has completed the period 1980-present, and is now running as a continuing global climate analysis with two- to three-week latency. MERRA-2 assimilates meteorological and aerosol observations as a weakly coupled assimilation system as a first step toward GMAOs longer term goal of developing an integrated Earth system analysis (IESA) capability that will couple assimilation systems for the atmosphere, ocean, land and chemistry. The GMAO strategy is to progress incrementally toward an IESA through an evolving combination of coupled systems and offline component reanalyses driven by, for example, MERRA-2 atmospheric forcing. Most recently, the GMAO has implemented a weakly coupled assimilation scheme for analyzing ocean skin temperature within the existing atmospheric analysis. The scheme uses background fields from a near-surface ocean diurnal layer model to assimilate surface-sensitive radiances plus in-situ observations along with all other observations in the atmospheric assimilation system. In addition, MERRA-2-driven simulations of the ocean (plus sea ice) and atmospheric chemistry (for the EOS period) are currently underway, as is the development of a coupled atmosphere-ocean assimilation system. This talk will describe the status of these ongoing efforts and the planned steps toward an IESA capability for climate research.

MERRA-2↗

The International Space Station: Unique In-Space Testbed as Exploration Analog

Final assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) was completed in 2011. As articulated in the 2011 NASA Strategic Plan, the Agency's first goal is to extend and sustain human activities across the solar system. Thus, the emerging NASA vision is to launch a bold and ambitious new space initiative to enable human space exploration beyond low-Earth orbit to Lagrange points, the moon, near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), and Mars and its environs. To accomplish this vision, it is necessary to develop and validate innovative exploration technologies and operational concepts. With the extended life of the ISS to 2020 and possibly 2028, NASA has a mandate to maximize the potential of the Nation's newest National Laboratory. Exploration and ISS teams within NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) have initiated a cooperative effort: the ISS Testbed for Analog Research (ISTAR), a high-fidelity operational analog that complements existing NASA terrestrial laboratory and field testing. To maximize use of the ISS platform to evaluate new exploration technologies, capabilities, and operational concepts to better comprehend and mitigate human spaceflight risks, ISTAR seeks out and encourages investigations dubbed "exploration detailed test objectives" (xDTOs). These xDTOs, building blocks of ISTAR missions, develop and optimize the operations concepts and the use of new technologies that should reduce risks and challenges facing astronauts on long exploration spaceflight voyages. In this paper, we describe (1) the rationale behind ISTAR, (2) a five-year strategic plan, (3) the approach for mission formulation, development, integration, and execution, (4) concepts for near-term missions that implement a phased approach for using ISS as an exploration testbed, and (5) the planned Mars mission simulation using the ISS. This paper will also document several challenges ISTAR must address to execute its missions.

Analog Mission↗

(Paper) TRIPWIRE: Multi-modal Distributed Sensing For Repository Verification

Underground geological repositories for storing used nuclear fuel are being planned and developed around the world. Research is being performed to understand technical aspects of sealing entombed materials and underground repositories to ensure the radiological and nuclear materials remain contained. To support safeguards verification for these facilities research at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is underway to develop and demonstrate a multi-modal sensor system, TRIPWIRE, for containment verification in inaccessible radiological and nuclear waste repositories. The TRIPWIRE system will continuously monitor ionizing radiation and electromagnetic fields in the vicinity of emplaced nuclear materials buried in a repository, reporting on disturbances with a real-time alarm control station. The system will use long-length scintillating fiber bundles (SFBs) to perform area radiation monitoring; these will be coupled to kilometer-scale multimodal optical communication fibers – all light sensors and electronic components used with this system will be located above ground. Electromagnetic fields, and changes in local dielectric conditions caused by intrusion and soil movement, will be monitored using commercial grade, ported "leaky" coaxial cables (PCCs), with control electronics also located above ground. Tamper-indicating self-diagnostic assessments will be done using optical and electronic time domain reflectometry in the SFBs and PCCs, respectively. The result will be a long, kilometer-scale multi-modal SFB-PCC system. Simulation and modeling are being used to inform the work and a demonstration of the system's utility is planned at a nuclear storage facility in the future.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗

Fast and accurate influenza forecasting in the United States with Inferno

Infectious disease forecasting is an emerging field and has the potential to improve public health through anticipatory resource allocation, situational awareness, and mitigation planning. By way of exploring and operationalizing disease forecasting, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted FluSight since the 2013/14 flu season, an annual flu forecasting challenge. Since FluSight’s onset, forecasters have developed and improved forecasting models in an effort to provide more timely, reliable, and accurate information about the likely progression of the outbreak. While improving the predictive performance of these forecasting models is often the primary objective, it is also important for a forecasting model to run quickly, facilitating further model development and improvement while providing flexibility when deployed in a real-time setting. In this vein I introduce Inferno, a fast and accurate flu forecasting model inspired by Dante, the top performing model in the 2018/19 FluSight challenge. When pseudoprospectively compared to all models that participated in FluSight 2018/19, Inferno would have placed 2nd in the national and regional challenge as well as the state challenge, behind only Dante. Inferno, however, runs in minutes and is trivially parallelizable, while Dante takes hours to run, representing a significant operational improvement with minimal impact to performance. Forecasting challenges like FluSight should continue to monitor and evaluate how they can be modified and expanded to incentivize the development of forecasting models that benefit public health.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

EOS Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR)

The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) experiment is an Instrument Investigation in the planning stages for the first NASA Earth Observing System polar platform, EOS-A. MISR will routinely acquire multispectral images of the angular reflectance signatures of terrestrial scenes. Scientific objectives include study of the climatic and environmental impacts of atmospheric aerosols, characterization of heterogeneous cloud fields and their impact on the shortwave radiation budget, development of surface bidirectional reflectance and albedo models for land surface climatology studies, and investigation of biosphere-atmosphere interactions and ecosystem change. This paper describes the MISR investigation, instrument, and data products.

Diner, David J.↗

EOS Terra Validation Program

The EOS Terra mission will be launched in July 1999. This mission has great relevance to the atmospheric radiation community and global change issues. Terra instruments include ASTER, CERES, MISR, MODIS and MOPITT. In addition to the fundamental radiance data sets, numerous global science data products will be generated, including various Earth radiation budget, cloud and aerosol parameters, as well as land surface, terrestrial ecology, ocean color, and atmospheric chemistry parameters. Significant investments have been made in on-board calibration to ensure the quality of the radiance observations. A key component of the Terra mission is the validation of the science data products. This is essential for a mission focused on global change issues and the underlying processes. The Terra algorithms have been subject to extensive pre-launch testing with field data whenever possible. Intensive efforts will be made to validate the Terra data products after launch. These include validation of instrument calibration (vicarious calibration) experiments, instrument and cross-platform comparisons, routine collection of high quality correlative data from ground-based networks, such as AERONET, and intensive sites, such as the SGP ARM site, as well as a variety field experiments, cruises, etc. Airborne simulator instruments have been developed for the field experiment and underflight activities including the MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS), AirMISR, MASTER (MODIS-ASTER), and MOPITT-A. All are integrated on the NASA ER-2, though low altitude platforms are more typically used for MASTER. MATR is an additional sensor used for MOPITT algorithm development and validation. The intensive validation activities planned for the first year of the Terra mission will be described with emphasis on derived geophysical parameters of most relevance to the atmospheric radiation community. Detailed information about the EOS Terra validation Program can be found on the EOS Validation program homepage i/e.: http://ospso.gsfc.nasa.gov/validation/valpage.html).

Starr, David↗

EOS Terra Validation Program

The EOS Terra mission will be launched in July 1999. This mission has great relevance to the atmospheric radiation community and global change issues. Terra instruments include Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), Multi-Angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT). In addition to the fundamental radiance data sets, numerous global science data products will be generated, including various Earth radiation budget, cloud and aerosol parameters, as well as land surface, terrestrial ecology, ocean color, and atmospheric chemistry parameters. Significant investments have been made in on-board calibration to ensure the quality of the radiance observations. A key component of the Terra mission is the validation of the science data products. This is essential for a mission focused on global change issues and the underlying processes. The Terra algorithms have been subject to extensive pre-launch testing with field data whenever possible. Intensive efforts will be made to validate the Terra data products after launch. These include validation of instrument calibration (vicarious calibration) experiments, instrument and cross-platform comparisons, routine collection of high quality correlative data from ground-based networks, such as AERONET, and intensive sites, such as the SGP ARM site, as well as a variety field experiments, cruises, etc. Airborne simulator instruments have been developed for the field experiment and underflight activities including the MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) AirMISR, MASTER (MODIS-ASTER), and MOPITT-A. All are integrated on the NASA ER-2 though low altitude platforms are more typically used for MASTER. MATR is an additional sensor used for MOPITT algorithm development and validation. The intensive validation activities planned for the first year of the Terra mission will be described with emphasis on derived geophysical parameters of most relevance to the atmospheric radiation community.

Starr, David↗

A Spacelab Expert System for Remote Engineering and Science

NASA's space science program is based on strictly pre-planned activities. This approach does not always result in the best science. We describe an existing computer system that enables space science to be conducted in a more reactive manner through advanced automation techniques that have recently been used in SLS-2 October 1993 space shuttle flight. Advanced computing techniques, usually developed in the field of Artificial Intelligence, allow large portions of the scientific investigator's knowledge to be "packaged" in a portable computer to present advice to the astronaut operator. We strongly believe that this technology has wide applicability to other forms of remote science/engineering. In this brief article, we present the technology of remote science/engineering assistance as implemented for the SLS-2 space shuttle flight. We begin with a logical overview of the system (paying particular attention to the implementation details relevant to the use of the embedded knowledge for system reasoning), then describe its use and success in space, and conclude with ideas about possible earth uses of the technology in the life and medical sciences.

Groleau, Nick↗

Hydrogen Wide Area Monitoring of LH2 Releases at HSE for the PRESHLY Project

The characterization of liquid hydrogen (LH2) releases has been identified as an international research priority to expand the safe use of hydrogen as an energy carrier. Empirical field measurements such as those afforded by Hydrogen Wide Area Monitoring (HyWAM) can elucidate the behavior of LH2 releases, which can then be used to support and validate dispersion models. HyWAM can be defined as the quantitative three-dimensional spatial and temporal profiling of planned or unintentional hydrogen releases. The NREL Sensor Laboratory developed a HyWAM based upon a distributed array of hydrogen Sensors. The NREL Sensor Laboratory and Health and Safety Executive (HSE) formally committed to collaborate on profiling GH2 and LH2 releases, which allowed for the integration of the NREL HyWAM into the HSE LH2 release behavior investigation supported by the FCH JU Prenormative Research for the Safe Use of Liquid Hydrogen (PRESLHY) program. A HyWAM system consisting of 32 hydrogen measurement points and co-located temperature sensors were distributed downstream of the LH2 release apparatus developed by HSE. In addition, there were proximal wind and weather monitors. In a separate presentation at this conference "HSE SD Experimental Summary for the Characterisation, Dispersion and Electrostatic Hazards of LH2 for the PRESLHY Project" HSE researchers summarize the experimental apparatus and experimental protocols utilized in the HSE LH2 releases that were performed under the auspices of PRESLHY. To supplement the HSE presentation, this presentation will focus on the spatial and temporal behavior LH2 releases as measured by the NREL HyWAM. Correlations to ambient conditions, such as wind speed and direction, plume temperature and hydrogen concentrations will be discussed in addition to the design and performance of the NREL HyWAM, and its potential for improving hydrogen facility safety.

HYDROGEN↗

Development of Transformative Preparation Methods to Push up High Q&G Performance of FRIB Spare HWR Cryomodule Cavities

The FRIB accelerator project construction, a top priority of US nuclear science, was completed in January 2022, and is now moving to user operation. The stable and reliable operation of the accelerating cryomodules is essential in achieving/fulfilling DOE and user expectations. So far, FRIB cryomodules meet all FRIB specifications for cavity performance. However, during the lifetime of machine operation, degradation of cryomodule performance is possible, as reported in similar operating facilities (CEBAF, SNS). If cryomodule degradation is observed at FRIB, the under-performing cryomodule will require replacement/maintenance. In effort to manage operational reliability, FRIB plans to construct a 0.53 half-wave cryomodule to serve as an active spare. In a parallel effort, FRIB will also work toward increasing operational Q and gradient of spare cryomodule cavities to gain an overall performance margin to support future operational reliability. The current FRIB cavity designs have a potential to operate at gradients higher than 8 MV/m, but are currently limited by field emission (FE) and/or high field Q slope (HFQS); known issue in buffered chemical polished (BCP) treated cavities. The proposal looks to develop transformative surface preparation treatments to improve the operational gradient of spare cryomodules higher than 10 MV/m while maintaining high Q. Thus, increasing operational margin by 30 - 50%. With the goal to improve operational reliability set, the proposal will investigate multiple objectives as possible paths forward to achieve an overall increase in cavity performance and gain a better understanding of SRF limiting mechanisms. The proposal will study the application of different chemical surface treatments to 0.53 half-wave cavities, with the addition of low temperature bakes (LTB), and measure their effects on accelerating performance. Proposed chemical treatments to be explored in this proposal include conventional EP acid mixtures, as well as innovated EP and BCP acid mixtures designed to simplify processing paths in migrating FE and HFQS. The proposed transformative treatment wet N-doping also has the potential to replicate recent advancements in SRF technology relating to nitrogen doping and high Q operation without the requirement for an ultra-high vacuum annealing furnace; currently being developed at FNAL and JLAB. In parallel, high Q performance relating to flux trapping will be investigated with the installation of a second layer of magnetic shielding in the vertical test Dewar. The research objectives presented in the proposal, and their corresponding effects on cavity performance, will provide essential knowledge and future guidance to the SRF community and provide possible paths for future SRF based projects and applications.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Simulation to Support Local Search in Trajectory Optimization Planning

NASA and the international community are investing in the development of a commercial transportation infrastructure that includes the increased use of rotorcraft, specifically helicopters and civil tilt rotors. However, there is significant concern over the impact of noise on the communities surrounding the transportation facilities. One way to address the rotorcraft noise problem is by exploiting powerful search techniques coming from artificial intelligence coupled with simulation and field tests to design low-noise flight profiles which can be tested in simulation or through field tests. This paper investigates the use of simulation based on predictive physical models to facilitate the search for low-noise trajectories using a class of automated search algorithms called local search. A novel feature of this approach is the ability to incorporate constraints directly into the problem formulation that addresses passenger safety and comfort.

Morris, Robert A.↗

Retrieval of Transuranic Drums with Deflagration to Detonation Potential from a Vault at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory - 20207

During the final phase of a long-term project, a total of 80 TRU waste drums at ORNL have been retrieved from a below-grade storage vault in which they have remained untouched for about 25 years. The drums, which house material generated from past ORNL operations, are now stored and ready for eventual transfer to the Transuranic Waste Processing Center, located on Highway 95 in Oak Ridge. The Transuranic Waste Processing Center will process and ship the drums to WIPP in Carlsbad, New Mexico, for disposal. Workers lifted the drums one-by-one from the underground storage vault with a 110-ton crane over a one-week period in October 2017. Although the physical work was performed in one week, years of detailed planning preceded the fieldwork. A key obstacle needed to be overcome before the project could safely proceed. This obstacle involved the need to ensure controls were developed for the Deflagration to Detonation Transition (DDT) potential. DDT refers to a phenomenon in ignitable mixtures of a flammable gas and air (or oxygen) when a sudden transition takes place from a deflagration type of combustion to a detonation type of explosion. Basically, these drums, under certain circumstances, have a potential to detonate and overpressurize. Extensive analysis of the drums verified that detonation, while unlikely, was possible. Of the total 103 drums that were retrieved or moved in preparation for retrieval, 18 had DDT potential. Extensive security requirements were also necessary, due to the nature of the material, and this added another layer of complexity to the fieldwork. Prior to retrieving the drums from the underground storage vault, space needed to be made for them within the various above-grade facilities. Inventory and security requirements dictated what could be stored where, and the first step of the field work involved a number of drum movements in preparation for storage of the newly retrieved drums. This effort involved moving 21 drums already in the storage area to facilitate the addition of the newly retrieved ones. The retrieval project required a total of 107 critical lifts using the 110-ton crane, under 3 critical lift plans. The TRU waste storage facility is a Category 2 Nuclear Facility and is managed under an extensive Documented Safety Analysis. The TRU retrieval project was conducted in accordance with DOE Order 425.1D and included three Implementation Verification Reviews, two Management Assessments, one Readiness Assessment, and seven mock-ups in preparation for the field work. Despite being stored for 25 years, the drums were in good shape due to the integrity of the facilities where the drums were stored. Of the 80 drums that were retrieved, 12 were placed in special containers called 'overpacks' based on their content. The drums were removed safely and without incident, thanks to a lot of preparation and the efforts of a highly skilled team. Lessons learned through the DDT control development and the drum retrieval and overpacking process could be beneficial to others having to manage similar drums of TRU waste. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

One third of the world - A review of Pacific islands telecommunications requirements

This paper describes the Pacific Basin Communications Study, an assessment of Pacific islands telecommunications requirements, recently completed by the Public Service Satellite Consortium under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The study describes extant and planned telecommunications systems in the region, examines user needs in terms of the development of governmental, social and commercial activities, and proposes and describes alternative technological solutions to communications problems. Questions of financing, implementation, management, costs and benefits of a regional telecommunications system are discussed. This paper describes user requirements based on six months of field investigation and technological options for improving telecommunications in the Pacific islands.

Hurd, J. N.↗

Exploring Dust Impacts on Tropical Systems from the NASA HS-3 Field Campaign

One of the overall scientific goals of the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS-3) field campaign is to better understand the role of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in tropical storm development. During the 2012 HS-3 deployment, the Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) observed dust within SAL air in close proximity to a developing Nadine (September 11, 2012). Throughout the mission, the NASA GEOS-5 modeling system supported HS-3 by providing 0.25 degrees resolution 5-day global forecasts of aerosols, which were used to support mission planning. The aerosol module was radiatively interactive within the GEOS-5 model, but aerosols were not directly coupled to cloud and precipitation processes. In this study we revisit the aerosol forecasts with an updated version of the GEOS-5 model. For the duration of Hurricane Nadine, we run multiday climate simulations leading up to each respective Global Hawk flight with and without aerosol direct interaction. For each set of simulations, we compare simulated dust mass fluxes to identify differences in SAL entrainment related to the interaction between dust aerosols and the atmosphere. We find that the direct effects of dust induce a low level anticyclonic circulation that temporarily shields Nadine from the intrusion of dry air, leading to a more intense storm.

hurricanes↗

Resource Letter GrW-1: Gravitational Waves

The phenomenon of gravitational radiation was one of the first predictions of Einstein's general theory of relativity. Progress in understanding this radiation theoretically was slow at first, owing to the difficulty of the nonlinear field equations and the subtleties of their physical effects. The experimental side of this subject also has taken a long time to develop, with efforts at detection severely challenged by the extreme weakness of the waves impinging on the Earth. However, as the 21st century begins, observations of the gravitational waves from astrophysical sources such as black holes, neutron stars, and stellar collapse are expected to open a new window on the universe. Vigorous experimental programs centered on ground-based detectors are being carried out worldwide, and a space-based detector is in the planning stages. On the theoretical side, much effort is being expended to produce robust models of the astrophysical sources and accurate calculations of the waveforms they produce. In this Resource Letter, a set of basic references will be presented first, to provide a general introduction to and overview of the literature in this field. The focus then will shift to highlighting key resources in more specialized areas at the forefront of current research.

White, Nicholas E.↗

Development and Transition of the Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) Toolset

We outline a plan to develop and transition a physics based predictive toolset called The Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) to describe the interplanetary energetic particle and radiation environment throughout the inner heliosphere, including at the Earth. To forecast and "nowcast" the radiation environment requires the fusing of three components: 1) the ability to provide probabilities for incipient solar activity; 2) the use of these probabilities and daily coronal and solar wind observations to model the 3D spatial and temporal heliosphere, including magnetic field structure and transients, within 10 Astronomical Units; and 3) the ability to model the acceleration and transport of energetic particles based on current and anticipated coronal and heliospheric conditions. We describe how to address 1) - 3) based on our existing, well developed, and validated codes and models. The goal of RISCS toolset is to provide an operational forecast and "nowcast" capability that will a) predict solar energetic particle (SEP) intensities; b) spectra for protons and heavy ions; c) predict maximum energies and their duration; d) SEP composition; e) cosmic ray intensities, and f) plasma parameters, including shock arrival times, strength and obliquity at any given heliospheric location and time. The toolset would have a 72 hour predicative capability, with associated probabilistic bounds, that would be updated hourly thereafter to improve the predicted event(s) and reduce the associated probability bounds. The RISCS toolset would be highly adaptable and portable, capable of running on a variety of platforms to accommodate various operational needs and requirements. The described transition plan is based on a well established approach developed in the Earth Science discipline that ensures that the customer has a tool that meets their needs

Spann, James F.↗

Full Simulation of CMS for Run-3 and Phase-2

In this contribution we report the status of the CMS Geant4 simulation and the prospects for Run-3 and Phase-2. Firstly, we report about our experience during the start of Run-3 with Geant4 10.7.2, the common software package DD4hep for geometry description, and VecGeom runtime geometry library. In addition, FTFP_BERT_EMM Physics List and CMS configuration for tracking in magnetic field have been utilized. For the first time, for the Grid mass production of Monte-Carlo, this combination of components is used. Further simulation improvements are under development targeting Run-3 such as the switch to the new Geant4 11.1 in production, that provides several features important for the optimization of simulation, for example the new transportation process with built-in multiple scattering, neutron general process, custom tracking manager, G4HepEm sub-library, and others. We will present evaluation of various options, validation results, and the final choice of simulation configuration for 2023 production and beyond. The performance of the CMS full simulation for Run-2 and Run-3 will also be discussed. CMS development plan for the Phase-2 Geant4 based simulation is very ambitious, and it includes a new geometry description, physics, and simulation configurations. The progress on new detector descriptions and full simulation will be presented as well as the R&D in progress to reduce compute capacity needs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Status Quo and Gap Analysis of Heliostat Field Deployment Processes for Concentrating Solar Tower Plants

In this study, deployment of the solar field of a concentrating solar power plant is one of many factors that are integral to the success of a project. Knowledge transfer from outside the industry is limited due to the unique nature of heliostats, which redirect sunlight to a receiver with high precision while maintaining a high level of reflectivity. Moreover, learning from project to project can be limited due to the site-specific nature of projects, as the market includes several developers, each with their own unique design. In this paper, we discuss the state of the art in heliostat field deployment. We cover all the key aspects of deployment from project assessment to a fully functioning system, which include site selection, layout development, supply chain, assembly, site preparation and construction, calibration, and operations and maintenance. We then perform a gap analysis on field deployment and recommend priorities for future research.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗