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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effect of Geometric Fidelity on the Aerodynamics of a Swept Wing with Glaze Ice Accretion

Aerodynamic assessment of icing effects on swept wings is an important component of a larger effort to improve three-dimensional icing simulation capabilities. An understanding of ice-shape geometric fidelity on iced-wing aerodynamics and the associated flowfield features are needed to guide the development and validation of ice-accretion simulation tools. To this end, wind-tunnel testing was carried out for 8.9% and 13.3% scale semispan wing models based upon the Common Research Model airplane configuration. Various levels of geometric fidelity of an artificial ice shape representing a glaze-ice accretion on a swept wing were investigated. The highest fidelity artificial ice shape reproduced all of the three-dimensional features associated with the glaze ice accretion. The lowest fidelity artificial ice shapes were simple, spanwise-varying horn ice geometries intended to represent the maximum ice thickness on the wing upper surface. The results presented in this paper show that the addition of grit roughness to some lower-fidelity artificial ice shapes resulted in favorable lift and pitching moment comparisons to the wing with the highest fidelity artificial ice shape. In the range of 4.3 to 7.4 deg. angle of attack, surface oil flow visualization and pressure data show that the wing with the two lower fidelity simulations clearly demonstrated a leading edge vortex dominated flowfield, referred to as type I. For the wing with the high fidelity ice shape, the flowfield at lower angles of attack was characterized by streamwise-running, counter-rotating vortical flow referred to as type II. Between 6.4 and 7.4 deg. angle of attack, the effect of the type II flow structures was significantly altered and gave way to the type I leading edge vortex. This means that for angles of attack 7.4 deg. and higher, the wing with all three configurations exhibited the same type of flowfield. This helps to explain why there is reasonably good agreement in the lift and pitching moment coefficients among these configurations.

Aircraft icing↗
NASA NTRS1947

Laboratory Investigation of Ice Formation and Elimination in the Induction System of a Large Twin-engine Cargo Aircraft

The icing characteristics, the de-icing rate with hot air, and the effect of impact ice on fuel metering and mixture distribution have been determined in a laboratory investigation of that part of the engine induction system consisting of a three-barrel injection-type carburetor and a supercharger housing with spinner-type fuel injection from an 18-cylinder radial engine used on a large twin-engine cargo airplane. The induction system remained ice-free at carburetor-air temperatures above 36 F regardless of the moisture content of the air. Between carburetor-air temperatures of 32 F and 36 F with humidity ratios in excess of saturation, serious throttling ice formed in the carburetor because of expansion cooling of the air; at carburetor-air temperatures below 32 F with humidity ratios in excess of saturation, serious impact-ice formations occurred, Spinner-type fuel injection at the entrance to the supercharger and heating of the supercharger-inlet elbow and the guide vanes by the warn oil in the rear engine housing are design features that proved effective in eliminating fuel-evaporation icing and minimized the formation of throttling ice below the carburetor. Air-flow recovery time with fixed throttle was rapidly reduced as the inlet -air wet -bulb temperature was increased to 55 F; further temperature increase produced negligible improvement in recovery time. Larger ice formations and lower icing temperatures increased the time required to restore proper air flow at a given wet-bulb temperature. Impact-ice formations on the entrance screen and the top of the carburetor reduced the over-all fuel-air ratio and increased the spread between the over-all ratio and the fuel-air ratio of the individual cylinders. The normal spread of fuel-air ratio was increased from 0.020 to 0.028 when the left quarter of the entrance screen was blocked in a manner simulating the blocking resulting from ice formations released from upstream duct walls during hot-air de-icing.

ICE PREVENTION - AIR HEATING↗
NASA NTRS2021

Sea Ice Extents Continue to Set New Records: Arctic, Antarctic, and Global Results

The multi-channel satellite passive-microwave record of Earth’s sea ice coverage, extending back to the late 1970s, has long revealed declining sea ice coverage in the Arctic but through 2015 revealed an overall increase rather than decrease in Antarctic sea ice coverage. Following major decreases in Antarctic sea ice since 2015, the 42-year 1979-2020 satellite dataset now shows losses in sea ice coverage in both hemispheres, and this is convincingly demonstrated by the enumeration of monthly and yearly record high and record low sea ice extents experienced over the course of the 42 years. In fact, one of the most convincing statistics on the declining Arctic sea ice cover is the fact that since 1986 the Arctic has not experienced a single monthly record high sea ice extent in any month but has experienced 93 monthly record lows. In contrast, all 12 calendar months have their 42-year Antarctic monthly record high sea ice extents in the period 2007-2015, while 8 of the 12 calendar months have had Antarctic record lows since 2015. Globally, every calendar month has registered a new monthly record low within the past 5 years. These results are complemented (and somewhat tempered) by quantification of the range of monthly and yearly sea ice extent values over the 42 years. For instance, although the Arctic’s lowest September monthly average sea ice extent (in 2012) is 53% lower than its highest September monthly average sea ice extent (in 1980), the other months have far smaller percent differences between their lowest and highest Arctic values. For yearly average sea ice extents, the Arctic’s lowest value (in 2020) is 18% lower than its highest value (in 1982), the Antarctic’s lowest value (in 2017) is 16% lower than its highest value (in 2014), and the global lowest value (in 2019) is only 12% lower than its highest value (in 1982).

sea ice↗
NASA NTRS1973

Evaluate the application of ERTS-A data for detecting and mapping sea ice

The author has identified the following significant results. Sea ice is detectable in all of the ERTS-1 MSS bands and can be distinguished from clouds through a number of interpretive keys. Considerable information on ice type can be derived from the ERTS-1 data. Ice types that appear to be identifiable include: ice floes of various categories, pack ice of various concentrations, ice belts, brash ice, rotten ice, fast ice, leads, fractures, cracks, puddles, thaw holes, and flooded ice. Although larger icebergs can be seen, it is difficult to distinguish them from ice floes. Ice features as small as the small floe of 20 to 100 m across can be detected, and the sizes of features somewhat smaller than 100 m can be measured from enlarged ERTS-1 prints. The multispectral analysis of the ERTS-1 MSS-7 bands provides much information on ice type and ice surface features that cannot be derived from a single spectral band. For example, thaw holes can often be distinguished from puddles because of their different appearances in the two bands. These surface features can be indicative of ice age. Furthermore, snow lines on glaciers can be reliably mapped through the joint use of the MSS-4 and 7 data.

Barnes, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1958

Icing Frequencies Experienced During Climb and Descent by Fighter-Interceptor Aircraft

Data and analyses are presented on the relative frequencies of occurrence and severity of icing cloud layers encountered by jet aircraft in the climb and descent phases of flights to high altitudes. Fighter-interceptor aircraft operated by the Air Defense Command (USAF) at bases in the Duluth and Seattle areas collected the data with icing meters installed for a l-year period. The project was part of an extensive program conducted by the NACA to collect Icing cloud data for evaluating the icing problem relevant to routine operations. The average frequency of occurrence of icing was found to be about 5 percent of the number of climbs and descents during 1 year of operations The icing encounters were predominantly in the low and middle cloud layers, decreasing above 15,000 feet to practically none above 25,000 feet. The greatest thickness of ice that would accumulate on any aircraft component (as indicated by the accretion on a small object) was measured with the icing meters. The ice thicknesses on a small sensing probe averaged less than 1/32 inch and did not exceed 1/2 inch. Such accumulations are relatively small when compared with those that can form during horizontal flight in icing clouds. The light accretions resulted from relatively steep angles of flight through generally thin cloud layers. Because of the limited statistical reliability of the results, an analysis was made using previous statistics on icing clouds below an altitude of 20,000 feet to determine the general icing severity probabilities. The calculations were made using adiabatic lifting as a basis to establish the liquid-water content. Probabilities of over-all ice accretions on a small object as a function of airspeed and rate of climb were computed from the derived water contents. These results were then combined with the probability of occurrence of icing in order to give the icing severity that can be expected for routine aircraft operations.

Perkins, Porter J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Microwave remote sensing of sea ice

The long term objectives are: (1) to understand the physics of the multispectral microwave radiative characteristics of sea ice as it goes through different phases; (2) to improve characterization of sea ice cover using satellite microwave sensors; and (3) to study ice/ocean physical and biological processes associated with polynya formations and variability of the marginal sea ice region. Two field experiments were conducted to pursue these objectives. One involved measurements of radiative and physical characteristics of sea ice from a ship during a 3-month long cruise through the Weddell Sea ice pack during the Austral winter of 1986. The other involved similar measurements from two aircrafts and a submarine over the Central Arctic and Greenland Sea region. Preliminary results have already led to an enhanced understanding of the microwave signatures of pancake ice, nilas, first year ice, multiyear ice and effects of snow cover. Coastal and deep ocean polynyas and their role in bottom water formation and ocean circulation were studied using a time series of ice images from SMMR. An unsupervised cluster analysis of Arctic sea ice using SMMR and THIR emissivity and brightness temperature data was implemented. The analysis indicates the existence of several unique and persistent clusters in the Central Arctic region during winter and that the sum of the area of these clusters excluding those of first year ice is about 20 percent less than minimum ice cover area inferred from a previous summer data. This result is consistent with saline surface for some multiyear ice floes as observed during MIZEZ and suggests that a significant fraction of multiyear ice floes in the Arctic have first year ice signatures.

Comiso, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1997

[Tail Plane Icing]

The Aviation Safety Program initiated by NASA in 1997 has put greater emphasis in safety related research activities. Ice-contaminated-tailplane stall (ICTS) has been identified by the NASA Lewis Icing Technology Branch as an important activity for aircraft safety related research. The ICTS phenomenon is characterized as a sudden, often uncontrollable aircraft nose- down pitching moment, which occurs due to increased angle-of-attack of the horizontal tailplane resulting in tailplane stall. Typically, this phenomenon occurs when lowering the flaps during final approach while operating in or recently departing from icing conditions. Ice formation on the tailplane leading edge can reduce tailplane angle-of-attack range and cause flow separation resulting in a significant reduction or complete loss of aircraft pitch control. In 1993, the Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) and NASA embarked upon a four-year research program to address the problem of tailplane stall and to quantify the effect of tailplane ice accretion on aircraft performance and handling characteristics. The goals of this program, which was completed in March 1998, were to collect aerodynamic data for an aircraft tail with and without ice contamination and to develop analytical methods for predicting the effects of tailplane ice contamination. Extensive dry air and icing tunnel tests which resulted in a database of the aerodynamic effects associated with tailplane ice contamination. Although the FAA/NASA tailplane icing program generated some answers regarding ice-contaminated-tailplane stall (ICTS) phenomena, NASA researchers have found many open questions that warrant further investigation into ICTS. In addition, several aircraft manufacturers have expressed interest in a second research program to expand the database to other tail configurations and to develop experimental and computational methodologies for evaluating the ICTS phenomenon. In 1998, the icing branch at NASA Lewis initiated a second multi-phase research program for tailplane icing (TIP II) to develop test methodologies and tailplane performance and handling qualities evaluation tools. The main objectives of this new NASA/Industry/Academia collaborative research programs were: (1) define and evaluate a sub-scale wind tunnel test methodology for determining tailplane performance degradation due to icing. (2) develop an experimental database of tailplane aerodynamic performance with and without ice contamination for a range of tailplane configurations. Wind tunnel tests were planned with representative general aviation aircraft, i.e., the Learjet 45, and a twin engine low speed aircraft. This report summarizes the research performed during the first year of the study, and outlines the work tasks for the second year.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1995

C-Band Backscatter Measurements of Winter Sea-Ice in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica

During the 1992 Winter Weddell Gyre Study, a C-band scatterometer was used from the German ice-breaker R/V Polarstern to obtain detailed shipborne measurement scans of Antarctic sea-ice. The frequency-modulated continuous-wave (FM-CW) radar operated at 4-3 GHz and acquired like- (VV) and cross polarization (HV) data at a variety of incidence angles (10-75 deg). Calibrated backscatter data were recorded for several ice types as the icebreaker crossed the Weddell Sea and detailed measurements were made of corresponding snow and sea-ice characteristics at each measurement site, together with meteorological information, radiation budget and oceanographic data. The primary scattering contributions under cold winter conditions arise from the air/snow and snow/ice interfaces. Observations indicate so e similarities with Arctic sea-ice scattering signatures, although the main difference is generally lower mean backscattering coefficients in the Weddell Sea. This is due to the younger mean ice age and thickness, and correspondingly higher mean salinities. In particular, smooth white ice found in 1992 in divergent areas within the Weddell Gyre ice pack was generally extremely smooth and undeformed. Comparisons of field scatterometer data with calibrated 20-26 deg incidence ERS-1 radar image data show close correspondence, and indicate that rough Antarctic first-year and older second-year ice forms do not produce as distinctively different scattering signatures as observed in the Arctic. Thick deformed first-year and second-year ice on the other hand are clearly discriminated from younger undeformed ice. thereby allowing successful separation of thick and thin ice. Time-series data also indicate that C-band is sensitive to changes in snow and ice conditions resulting from atmospheric and oceanographic forcing and the local heat flux environment. Variations of several dB in 45 deg incidence backscatter occur in response to a combination of thermally-regulated parameters including sea-ice brine volume, snow and ice complex dielectric properties, and snow physical properties.

Drinkwater, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Changes in the Areal Extent of Arctic Sea Ice: Observations from Satellites

Wintertime sea ice covers 15 million square kilometers of the north polar region, an area exceeding one and a half times the area of the U. S. Even at the end of the summer melt season, sea ice still covers 7 million square kilometers. This vast ice cover is an integral component of the climate system, being moved around by winds and waves, restricting heat and other exchanges between the ocean and atmosphere, reflecting most of the solar radiation incident on it, transporting cold, relatively fresh water equatorward, and affecting the overturning of ocean waters underneath, with impacts that can be felt worldwide. Sea ice also is a major factor in the Arctic ecosystem, affecting life forms ranging from minute organisms living within the ice, sometimes to the tune of millions in a single ice floe, to large marine mammals like walruses that rely on sea ice as a platform for resting, foraging, social interaction, and breeding. Since 1978, satellite technology has allowed the monitoring of the vast Arctic sea ice cover on a routine basis. The satellite observations reveal that, overall, the areal extent of Arctic sea ice has been decreasing since 1978, at an average rate of 2.7% per decade through the end of 1998. Through 1998, the greatest rates of decrease occurred in the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan and the Kara and Barents Seas, with most other regions of the Arctic also experiencing ice extent decreases. The two regions experiencing ice extent increases over this time period were the Bering Sea and the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Furthermore, the satellite data reveal that the sea ice season shortened by over 25 days per decade in the central Sea of Okhotsk and the eastern Barents Sea, and by lesser amounts throughout much of the rest of the Arctic seasonal sea ice region, although not in the Bering Sea or the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Concern has been raised that if the trends toward shortened sea ice seasons and lesser sea ice coverage continue, this could entail major consequences to the polar climate and to the lifestyles (and perhaps even the survivability) of polar bears and other polar species.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Calibration of Sea Ice Motion from QuikSCAT with those from SSM/I and Buoy

QuikSCAT backscatter and DMSP SSM/I radiance data are used to derive sea ice motion for both the Arctic and Antarctic region using wavelet analysis method. This technique provides improved spatial coverage over the existing array of Arctic Ocean buoys and better temporal resolution over techniques utilizing satellite data from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). Sea ice motion of the Arctic for the period from October 1999 to March 2000 derived from QuikSCAT and SSM/I data agrees well with that derived from ocean buoys quantitatively. Thus the ice tracking results from QuikSCAT and SSM/I are complement to each other, Then, three sea-ice drift daily results from QuikSCAT, SSM/I, and buoy data can be merged to generate composite maps with more complete coverage of sea ice motion than those from single data source. A series of composite sea ice motion maps for December 1999 show that the major circulation patterns of sea ice motion are changing and shifting significantly within every four days and they are dominated by wind forcing. Sea-ice drift in the summer can not be derived from NSCAT and SSM/I data. In later summer of 1999 (in September), however, QuikSCAT data can provide good sea ice motion information in the Arctic. QuiksCAT can also provide at least partial sea ice motion information until June 15 in early summer 1999. For the Antarctic, case study shows that sea ice motion derived from QuikSCAT data is predominantly forced by and is consistent with wind field derived from QuikSCAT around the polar region. These calibrated/validated results indicate that QuikSCAT, SSM/I, and buoy merged daily ice motion are suitably accurate to identify and closely locate sea ice processes, and to improve our current knowledge of sea ice drift and related processes through the data assimilation of ocean-ice numerical model.

Liu, Antony K.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Large Scale Characteristics and Variability of the Global Sea Ice Cover

More than two decades of satellite passive microwave data are used to study and evaluate the large scale characteristics and the changing state of the sea ice cover in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Satellite data provide day/night almost continuous observation of global sea ice cover thereby enabling quantitative variability studies at various time scales. Despite coarse sensor resolution, spatial detail is provided through the use of sea ice concentrations which are derived using an algorithm that determines the fraction of ice and open water within each satellite footprint. Large seasonal fluctuations in the extent are apparent with those of the Southern Hemisphere having larger amplitudes but less symmetrical seasonal distribution than those of the Northern Hemisphere. The large scale interannual variability of the ice cover has been evaluated globally as well as regionally and in the Northern Hemisphere, the yearly anomaly maps show a predominance of positive values in the 1980s and negative values in the 1990s. Regression analysis show that the ice extent and ice area are on a decline at the rate of -2.0 +/- 0.5% and -3.1 +/- 0.3% per decade, respectively, in the Northern Hemisphere but there are regions like the Bering Sea with positive trends. What is intriguing, however, is that the perennial sea ice cover has been declining at a much faster rate than for the entire hemisphere, i.e., 6.7 +/- 2.4% and 8.3 +/- 2.4 % per decade for ice extent and ice area, respectively. The perennial ice cover consists mainly of thick multiyear ice floes, and its persistent decline would mean a reduction in the average thickness of sea ice and a change in the overall characteristics of the Arctic sea ice cover. Furthermore, the yearly anomaly patterns are coherent with those of surface temperatures derived from 19 years of thermal infrared AVHRR data. The latter also shows that in consolidated ice regions, the average temperature during summer minima has been increasing at about 0.9 +/- 0.6 K per decade.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Observed and Modeled Trends in Southern Ocean Sea Ice

Conceptual models and global climate model (GCM) simulations have both indicated the likelihood of an enhanced sensitivity to climate change in the polar regions, derived from the positive feedbacks brought about by the polar abundance of snow and ice surfaces. Some models further indicate that the changes in the polar regions can have a significant impact globally. For instance, 37% of the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 in simulations with the GCM of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is attributable exclusively to inclusion of sea ice variations in the model calculations. Both sea ice thickness and sea ice extent decrease markedly in the doubled CO, case, thereby allowing the ice feedbacks to occur. Stand-alone sea ice models have shown Southern Ocean hemispherically averaged winter ice-edge retreats of 1.4 deg latitude for each 1 K increase in atmospheric temperatures. Observations, however, show a much more varied Southern Ocean ice cover, both spatially and temporally, than many of the modeled expectations. In fact, the satellite passive-microwave record of Southern Ocean sea ice since late 1978 has revealed overall increases rather than decreases in ice extents, with ice extent trends on the order of 11,000 sq km/year. When broken down spatially, the positive trends are strongest in the Ross Sea, while the trends are negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas. Greater spatial detail can be obtained by examining trends in the length of the sea ice season, and those trends show a coherent picture of shortening sea ice seasons throughout almost the entire Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula and in the far western Weddell Sea immediately to the east of the Peninsula, with lengthening sea ice seasons around much of the rest of the continent. This pattern corresponds well with the spatial pattern of temperature trends, as the Peninsula region is the one region in the Antarctic with a strong record of temperature increases. Still, although the patterns of the temperature and ice changes match fairly well, there is a substantial ways to go before these patterns are understood (and can be modeled) in the full context of global change.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗
NASA NTRS2009

NASA Iced Aerodynamics and Controls Current Research

This slide presentation reviews the state of current research in the area of aerodynamics and aircraft control with ice conditions by the Aviation Safety Program, part of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Controls Project (IRAC). Included in the presentation is a overview of the modeling efforts. The objective of the modeling is to develop experimental and computational methods to model and predict aircraft response during adverse flight conditions, including icing. The Aircraft icing modeling efforts includes the Ice-Contaminated Aerodynamics Modeling, which examines the effects of ice contamination on aircraft aerodynamics, and CFD modeling of ice-contaminated aircraft aerodynamics, and Advanced Ice Accretion Process Modeling which examines the physics of ice accretion, and works on computational modeling of ice accretions. The IRAC testbed, a Generic Transport Model (GTM) and its use in the investigation of the effects of icing on its aerodynamics is also reviewed. This has led to a more thorough understanding and models, both theoretical and empirical of icing physics and ice accretion for airframes, advanced 3D ice accretion prediction codes, CFD methods for iced aerodynamics and better understanding of aircraft iced aerodynamics and its effects on control surface effectiveness.

Addy, Gene↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Rapidly Shrinking Arctic Multiyear Ice Cover

Among the most dramatic changes in the Arctic in recent years was the precipitous decline in the perennial ice cover. In 2007, the perennial ice area was 37% lower than climatological average and 28% lower than the previous low established in 2005. In 2008, the perennial ice recovered somewhat because of colder global temperatures but by only about 6% of average value. The trend in the ice area covered by perennial ice is now -12.5% per decade using data from 1979 to 2009 which compared to a previous report of -9% per decade derived from 1979 to 2000 data indicates an accelerated decline. To gain insight into the phenomenon, we studied the mUltiyear ice cover as detected by satellite sensor in winter. The multiyear ice as detected in winter represents ice that has generally survived two summers and therefore the thicker component of the perennial ice cover. Analysis of the thicker multiyear ice types indicates an even more rapid decline of 17% per decade. Such decline in the thick component of the Arctic ice cover that normally survives the summer means an even more vulnerable perennial ice cover. Much of the decline occurred in the western region of the Arctic Basin (Le., Chukchi and Beaufort Seas) where the open water area has been increasing by about 35% per decade. Such increase in low albedo ice free region causes the absorption of considerably more solar heat in the Arctic basin. This causes further decline in the ice cover in a process called ice-albedo feedback. A manifestation of such process is the observed trend in SST in the basin of about 0.5 + 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade as derived from satellite data

Comiso, Josefino C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Antarctic Sea Ice Variability and Trends, 1979-2010

In sharp contrast to the decreasing sea ice coverage of the Arctic, in the Antarctic the sea ice cover has, on average, expanded since the late 1970s. More specifically, satellite passive-microwave data for the period November 1978 - December 2010 reveal an overall positive trend in ice extents of 17,100 +/- 2,300 square km/yr. Much of the increase, at 13,700 +/- 1,500 square km/yr, has occurred in the region of the Ross Sea, with lesser contributions from the Weddell Sea and Indian Ocean. One region, that of the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, has, like the Arctic, instead experienced significant sea ice decreases, with an overall ice extent trend of -8,200 +/- 1,200 square km/yr. When examined through the annual cycle over the 32-year period 1979-2010, the Southern Hemisphere sea ice cover as a whole experienced positive ice extent trends in every month, ranging in magnitude from a low of 9,100 +/- 6,300 square km/yr in February to a high of 24,700 +/- 10,000 square km/yr in May. The Ross Sea and Indian Ocean also had positive trends in each month, while the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas had negative trends in each month, and the Weddell Sea and Western Pacific Ocean had a mixture of positive and negative trends. Comparing ice-area results to ice-extent results, in each case the ice-area trend has the same sign as the ice-extent trend, but differences in the magnitudes of the two trends identify regions with overall increasing ice concentrations and others with overall decreasing ice concentrations. The strong pattern of decreasing ice coverage in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas region and increasing ice coverage in the Ross Sea region is suggestive of changes in atmospheric circulation. This is a key topic for future research.

Parkinson, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Diagnosing Aircraft Icing Potential from Satellite Cloud Retrievals

The threat for aircraft icing in clouds is a significant hazard that routinely impacts aviation operations. Accurate diagnoses and forecasts of aircraft icing conditions requires identifying the location and vertical distribution of clouds with super-cooled liquid water (SLW) droplets, as well as the characteristics of the droplet size distribution. Traditional forecasting methods rely on guidance from numerical models and conventional observations, neither of which currently resolve cloud properties adequately on the optimal scales needed for aviation. Satellite imagers provide measurements over large areas with high spatial resolution that can be interpreted to identify the locations and characteristics of clouds, including features associated with adverse weather and storms. This paper describes new techniques for interpreting cloud products derived from satellite data to infer the flight icing threat to aircraft. For unobscured low clouds, the icing threat is determined using empirical relationships developed from correlations between satellite imager retrievals of liquid water path and droplet size with icing conditions reported by pilots (PIREPS). For deep ice over water cloud systems, ice and liquid water content (IWC and LWC) profiles are derived by using the imager cloud properties to constrain climatological information on cloud vertical structure and water phase obtained apriori from radar and lidar observations, and from cloud model analyses. Retrievals of the SLW content embedded within overlapping clouds are mapped to the icing threat using guidance from an airfoil modeling study. Compared to PIREPS and ground-based icing remote sensing datasets, the satellite icing detection and intensity accuracies are approximately 90% and 70%, respectively, and found to be similar for both low level and deep ice over water cloud systems. The satellite-derived icing boundaries capture the reported altitudes over 90% of the time. Satellite analyses corresponding to the time and location of several recent aviation accidents and with icing PIREPS are also presented that reveal skill in identifying severe icing conditions. These results demonstrate the utility of satellite cloud retrievals for quantitatively diagnosing the potential for icing conditions on temporal and spatial scales that should be useful to the aviation community. Plans are being developed to deliver these new satellite products to the GOES-R Proving Ground in the near future so that they can be evaluated in operational applications.

Smith, William L., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2020

ISMIP6 Antarctica: A Multi-Model Ensemble of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution Over the 21st Century

Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between -7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica ass change varies between -6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

Hélène Seroussi↗
NASA NTRS2022

Drill-Site Selection for Cosmogenic-Nuclide Exposure Dating of the Bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Direct observations of the size of the Greenland Ice Sheet during Quaternary interglaciations are sparse yet valuable for testing numerical models of ice-sheet history and sea level contribution. Recent measurements of cosmogenic nuclides in bedrock from beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet collected during past deep-drilling campaigns reveal that the ice sheet was significantly smaller, and perhaps largely absent, sometime during the past 1.1 million years. These discoveries from decades-old basal samples motivate new, targeted sampling for cosmogenic-nuclide analysis beneath the ice sheet. Current drills available for retrieving bed material from the US Ice Drilling Program require < 700 m ice thickness and a frozen bed, while quartz-bearing bedrock lithologies are required for measuring a large suite of cosmogenic nuclides. We find that these and other requirements yield only ∼ 3.4 % of the Greenland Ice Sheet bed as a suitable drilling target using presently available technology. Additional factors related to scientific questions of interest are the following: which areas of the present ice sheet are the most sensitive to warming, where would a retreating ice sheet expose bare ground rather than leave a remnant ice cap, and which areas are most likely to remain frozen bedded throughout glacial cycles and thus best preserve cosmogenic nuclides? Here we identify locations beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet that are best suited for potential future drilling and analysis. These include sites bordering Inglefield Land in northwestern Greenland, near Victoria Fjord and Mylius-Erichsen Land in northern Greenland, and inland from the alpine topography along the ice margin in eastern and northeastern Greenland. Results from cosmogenic-nuclide analysis in new sub-ice bedrock cores from these areas would help to constrain dimensions of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the past.

Greenland↗