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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

The PDF4LHC report on PDFs and LHC data: Results from Run I and preparation for Run II

The accurate determination of Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs) of the proton is an essential ingredient of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) program. PDF uncertainties impact a wide range of processes, from Higgs boson characterization and precision Standard Model measurements to New Physics searches. A major recent development in modern PDF analyses has been to exploit the wealth of new information contained in precision measurements from the LHC Run I, as well as progress in tools and methods to include these data in PDF fits. In this report we summarize the information that PDF-sensitive measurements at the LHC have provided so far, and review the prospects for further constraining PDFs with data from the recently started Run II. As a result, this document aims to provide useful input to the LHC collaborations to prioritize their PDF-sensitive measurements at Run II, as well as a comprehensive reference for the PDF-fitting collaborations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2017

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of TREAT Transient Test #15

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing for the resumption of transient testing using the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) located at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). In order to support the analysis of TREAT operation and experiment planning, the MAMMOTH reactor physics team has recently begun development of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the TREAT core simulated via MAMMOTH. MAMMOTH is a high-fidelity three-dimensional transient multi-physics code developed at INL under the DOE-NE Advanced Modeling and Simulation program (NEAMS) [1]. This research is part of the development presenting some initial uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of TREAT Transient Test #15 [2]. In this summary, we employ the Sobol sampling strategy implemented in RAVEN [3] to efficiently perform the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The idea is using Sobol functional decomposition with generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions to estimate the responses of interest [4]. The gPC coefficients are then computed via the spectral projection method with sparse grid approach. In addition, this strategy includes evaluation of the second or higher order sensitivity indices, allowing the study of interactions between several input variables. The principal focus of this analysis is to quantify the uncertainties in the total power and maximum fuel temperatures with respect to uncertainties in the initial transient conditions, such as rated power, fuel temperature, graphite fuel density and control rod boron concentration. In addition, both the first order and second order time-dependent sensitivity indices are computed and analyzed. The results show that the interactions between initial control rod boron concentration and the rated power will contribute at most 1% to the total uncertainty of the power peak.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of TREAT Transient Test no. 15

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing for the resumption of transient testing using the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) located at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). In order to support the analysis of TREAT operation and experiment planning, the MAMMOTH reactor physics team has recently begun development of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the TREAT core simulated via MAMMOTH. MAMMOTH is a high-fidelity three-dimensional transient multi-physics code developed at INL under the DOE-NE Advanced Modeling and Simulation program (NEAMS). This research is part of the development presenting some initial uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of TREAT Transient Test no. 15. In this summary, we employ the Sobol sampling strategy implemented in RAVEN to efficiently perform the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The idea is using Sobol functional decomposition with generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions to estimate the responses of interest. The gPC coefficients are then computed via the sparse grid spectral projection method. In addition, this strategy includes evaluation of the second or higher order sensitivity indices, allowing the study of interactions between several input variables. The principal focus of this analysis is to quantify the uncertainties in the total power and maximum fuel temperatures with respect to uncertainties in the initial transient conditions, such as rated power, fuel temperature, graphite fuel density and control rod boron concentration. In addition, both the first order and second order time-dependent sensitivity indices are computed and analyzed. The results show that the interactions between initial control rod boron concentration and the rated power will contribute at most 1% to the total uncertainty of the power peak.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1996

Study of Nonclassical Fields in Phase-Sensitive Reservoirs

We show that the reservoir influence can be modeled by an infinite array of beam splitters. The superposition of the input fields in the beam splitter is discussed with the convolution laws for their quasiprobabilities. We derive the Fokker-Planck equation for the cavity field coupled with a phase-sensitive reservoir using the convolution law. We also analyze the amplification in the phase-sensitive reservoir with use of the modified beam splitter model. We show the similarities and differences between the dissipation and amplification models. We show that a super-Poissonian input field cannot become sub-Poissonian by the phase-sensitive amplification.

Kim, Myung Shik↗
DOE OSTI2021

Vadose and Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Model Package Report for the Active Trenches of the Low-Level Burial Grounds, Hanford Site, Washington

This model package report (MPR) documents the development of the integrated vadose and saturated zone flow and transport model developed for the performance assessment of Trenches 31 and 34 in the low-level burial grounds (LLBGs). This modeling capability is intended for use in addressing the analysis requirements outlined in DOE O 435.1, Chg 1, Radioactive Waste Management1. The overall objective of the modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed disposal decisions pertinent to Trenches 31 and 34. The purpose of the MPR is to document the development of the three-dimensional numerical vadose zone and saturated flow and transport model test case and evaluate its adequacy to support the LLBG performance assessment. The purpose is not to present results for DOE 435.1 decision making. The use of the model to perform base case and sensitivity analysis for the LLBG performance assessment, including inputs and results, is documented separately in subsequent environmental calculation files. This report discusses the development and translation of the conceptual model for flow and contaminant transport into the LLBG performance assessment three-dimensional numerical flow and transport model evaluated using the Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (STOMP©) simulator. The development of representative geologic framework is described along with the implementation of waste release models used to represent contaminant release from waste disposed in the trenches. The report also provides the technical basis for specific model parameters and boundary conditions, along with description of modeling assumptions. This MPR includes certain calculations that are necessary to demonstrate the soundness of the model. Results provided by the model include vadose zone and saturated zone flow fields, and estimates of the possible future concentration in groundwater of technetium-99 and iodine-129 as example test cases. As an evaluation of the test cases, the model estimates of current vadose conditions are compared to available and analogous field and laboratory data, and compared to the results from the original performance assessment model (WHC-EP-0645, Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low-Level Waste in the 200 West Area Burial Grounds 2 ). The features, events, and processes applicable to vadose zone and saturated zone flow and transport model are identified, and representative initial estimates for various parameters are documented. Note that the parameter estimates presented in this MPR are for illustration purposes, and may or may not reflect values selected for eventual performance assessment. Several key topical discussions (i.e., basis for recharge estimates, basis for vadose zone modeling, basis for saturated zone model development, and calibration) are included, which serve as the groundwork for confidence building for the groundwater pathway modeling and results. Numerical simulation results based on an example test case are included to illustrate the use of the combined saturated-unsaturated model in performance assessment calculations. Sensitivity and uncertainty results are not included in this MPR. Those results will be included in future environmental calculation files. The inclusion of the trapezoidal trench geometry and construction details in the finite difference grid introduces some gross simplifications regarding the trench and liner systems. The model test case presented in this MPR includes the assumption that the trench liner system does not affect flow through or around the trenches after the liner system is assumed to fail. This MPR also includes results of other test cases that involve alternate assumptions about how to incorporate the hydraulic effects of the trenches into the vadose zone of the model. These alternate cases do not attempt to account for the presence of the liner system after its assumed failure either. None of these cases is considered to be the base case at this time. Analysis and alternate cases that attempt to account for the presence of the liner system in greater detail, and its effect on flow through and around it, are to be documented in subsequent environmental calculation files. Depending on the results of those analyses and alternate cases, the eventual base case may involve more detailed inclusion of the effects of the liner system hydraulics.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2009

Monitoring Phenology as Indicator for Timing of Nutrient Inputs in Northern Gulf Watersheds

Nutrient over-enrichment defined by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as the anthropogenic addition of nutrients, in addition to any natural processes, causing adverse effects or impairments to the beneficial uses of a water body has been identified as one of the most significant environmental problems facing sensitive estuaries and coastal waters. Understanding the timing of nutrient inputs into those waters through remote sensing observables helps define monitoring and mitigation strategies. Remotely sensed data products can trace both forcings and effects of the nutrient system from landscape to estuary. This project is focused on extracting nutrient information from the landscape. The timing of nutrients entering coastal waters from the land boundary is greatly influenced by hydrologic processes, but can also be affected by the timing of nutrient additions across the landscape through natural or anthropogenic means. Non-point source nutrient additions to watersheds are often associated with specific seasonal cycles, such as decomposition of organic materials in fall and winter or addition of fertilizers to crop lands in the spring. These seasonal cycles or phenology may in turn be observed through the use of satellite sensors. Characterization of the phenology of various land cover types may be of particular interest in Gulf of Mexico estuarine systems with relatively short pathways between intensively managed systems and the land/estuarine boundary. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the capability of monitoring phenology of specific classes of land, such as agriculture and managed timberlands, at a refined watershed level. The extraction of phenological information from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data record is accomplished using analytical tools developed for NASA at Stennis Space Center: the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool. MODIS reflectance data (product MOD09) were used to compute the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, which is sensitive to changes in vegetation canopies. The project team is working directly with the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality to understand end-user requirements for this type of information product. Initial focus areas are identification of time frames for pre-plant fertilizer applications (prior to start of season), side-dress fertilizer applications (during rapid green-up), and periods of plant decomposition (during and after senescence). Prototypical maps of phenological stages related to these time frames have been generated for watersheds in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Where feasible, these maps have been compared to existing in situ nutrient monitoring data, but the in situ data is temporally sparse (monthly frequency or less), which makes interpretation challenging. Future work will include integrating effects of rainfall and seeking couplings with estuarine remote sensing.

Ross, Kenton W.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Diode amplifier of modulated optical beam power

Analytical relations are obtained between characteristics of modulated light at the output and input of an optical diode power amplifier operating in the highly saturated gain regime. It is shown that a diode amplifier may act as an amplitude-to-phase modulation converter with a rather large bandwidth (∼10 GHz). The low sensitivity of the output power of the amplifier to the input beam power and its high energy efficiency allow it to be used as a building block of a high-power multielement laser system with coherent summation of a large number of optical beams. (lasers)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2012

Tuning the Sensitivity of an Optical Cavity with Slow and Fast Light

We have measured mode pushing by the dispersion of a rubidium vapor in a Fabry-Perot cavity and have shown that the scale factor and sensitivity of a passive cavity can be strongly enhanced by the presence of such an anomalous dispersion medium. The enhancement is the result of the atom-cavity coupling, which provides a positive feedback to the cavity response. The cavity sensitivity can also be controlled and tuned through a pole by a second, optical pumping, beam applied transverse to the cavity. Alternatively, the sensitivity can be controlled by the introduction of a second counter-propagating input beam that interferes with the first beam, coherently increasing the cavity absorptance. We show that the pole in the sensitivity occurs when the sum of the effective group index and an additional cavity delay factor that accounts for mode reshaping goes to zero, and is an example of an exceptional point, commonly associated with coupled non-Hermitian Hamiltonian systems. Additionally we show that a normal dispersion feature can decrease the cavity scale factor and can be generated through velocity selective optical pumping

Smith, David D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Reactive Transport Model for Mineral Scale Formation During Hydraulic Fracturing

Injection of water-based hydraulic fracturing fluid (HFF) into tight shale gas/oil formations can increase formation permeability and enhance production rates, but this process frequently causes mineral scale formation that can occlude pore space and hinder flow. To identify the most important factors that control the formation of mineral scales, we applied a novel global sensitivity analysis method—distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis (DGSA)—to a reactive transport model (RTM) that was previously built and calibrated to simulate precipitation of barite [BaSO4] and iron (hydr)oxide [Fe(OH) 3 ] in shale matrices and on fracture surfaces. Reactive transport simulations were run with model parameters randomly sampled based on assigned uncertainties. Modeling results for barite and Fe(OH)3 formation were clustered using machine-learning algorithms. A list of ranked critical input parameters was obtained after statistical quantification of cumulative distribution functions of input parameters. We found that barite formation is most sensitive to the rate of sulfate ion generation, which is determined by the pyrite dissolution rate coefficient and oxidant availability. In addition, barite formation is sensitive to the initial amounts of barite in HFF and shale, followed by barite thermodynamics/kinetics. For Fe(OH) 3 formation, the ranked factors are Fe(OH)3 precipitation rate coefficients, initial HFF pH, initial Fe(OH) 3 amount in HFF, and oxidant availability. Overall, our results provide insights into managing mineral scale formation during hydraulic fracturing to enhance production. Meanwhile, this study serves as an example of global sensitivity analysis of RTMs using the efficient, straightforward, and open-source DGSA method.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty

We report that the spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O 3 level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057 and 2059) and base years (2001–2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O 3 . Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O 3 -related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2198) and ₋2118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95 % CI: ₋3021 to ₋1216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O 3 -related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Finally, excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O 3 as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Simulations of magnetic hysteresis loops at high temperatures

The kinetic Monte-Carlo algorithm as well as standard micromagnetics are used to simulate MH loops of high anisotropy magnetic recording media at both short and long time scales over a wide range of temperatures relevant to heat-assisted magnetic recording. Microscopic parameters, common to both methods, were determined by fitting to experimental data on single-layer FePt-based media that uses the Magneto-Optic Kerr effect with a slow sweep rate of 700 Oe/s. Saturation moment, uniaxial anisotropy, and exchange constants are given an intrinsic temperature dependence based on published atomistic simulations of FePt grains with an effective Curie temperature of 680 K. Our results show good agreement between micromagnetics and kinetic Monte Carlo results over a wide range of sweep rates. Loops at the slow experimental sweep rates are found to become more square-shaped, with an increasing slope, as temperature increases from 300 K. These effects also occur at higher sweep rates, typical of recording speeds, but are much less pronounced. These results demonstrate the need for accurate determination of intrinsic thermal properties of future recording media as input to micromagnetic models as well as the sensitivity of the switching behavior of thin magnetic films to applied field sweep rates at higher temperatures.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interpretable Data-Driven Probabilistic Power System Load Margin Assessment with Uncertain Renewable Energy and Loads

The increasing uncertainties caused by the high-penetration of stochastic renewable generation resources poses a significant threat to the power system voltage stability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic deep kernel learning enabled surrogate model to extract the hidden relationship between uncertain sources, i.e., wind power and loads, and load margin for probabilistic load margin assessment (PLMA). Unlike other deep learning approaches, a kernel SHAP provides the sensitivity analysis as well as interpretability of the inputs to outputs influences. This allows identifying the critical factors that affect load margin so that corrective control can be initiated for stability enhancement. Numerical results carried out on the IEEE 118-bus power system demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed data-driven PLMA scheme.

deep kernel learning↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning-enabled Scalable Performance Prediction of Scientific Codes

Hardware architectures become increasingly complex as the compute capabilities grow to exascale. Here, we present the Analytical Memory Model with Pipelines (AMMP) of the Performance Prediction Toolkit (PPT). PPT-AMMP takes high-level source code and hardware architecture parameters as input and predicts runtime of that code on the target hardware platform, which is defined in the input parameters. PPT-AMMP transforms the code to an (architecture-independent) intermediate representation, then (i) analyzes the basic block structure of the code, (ii) processes architecture-independent virtual memory access patterns that it uses to build memory reuse distance distribution models for each basic block, and (iii) runs detailed basic-block level simulations to determine hardware pipeline usage. PPT-AMMP uses machine learning and regression techniques to build the prediction models based on small instances of the input code, then integrates into a higher-order discrete-event simulation model of PPT running on Simian PDES engine. We validate PPT-AMMP on four standard computational physics benchmarks and present a use case of hardware parameter sensitivity analysis to identify bottleneck hardware resources on different code inputs. We further extend PPT-AMMP to predict the performance of a scientific application code, namely, the radiation transport mini-app SNAP. To this end, we analyze multi-variate regression models that accurately predict the reuse profiles and the basic block counts. We validate predicted SNAP runtimes against actual measured times.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Deposition Velocity Methods For DOE Site Safety Analyses

This report documents the results of an investigation of deposition velocity methods for use in Department of Energy (DOE) Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) modeling. The project was sponsored by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Nuclear Safety Research and Development Program and monitored by the Chief of Nuclear Safety (CNS) from the Office of the Under Secretary for Management and Performance. Based on initial scoping discussions, the primary focus of this effort was on the dry deposition of particulate matter. However, within the constraints of the project, we also explored the sensitivity of safety analysis modeling to other key input parameters (wind direction variability, atmospheric stability, release characteristics, model assumptions), examined the 95 th percentile methodology, and investigated a few aspects of a commonly-used DOE safety analysis code, MACCS2 (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

High Resolution Model Development to Quantify the Impact of Icebergs on the Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

In the present-day North Atlantic Ocean, relatively warm and salty water moves northwards from the tropics to the high latitudes, sinks, and returns southward towards the equator as North Atlantic Deep Water, forming the so called Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). It has been found that the stability of the AMOC is non-linearly related to the freshwater budget of the North Atlantic. In this way, additional fresh water can be added to the ocean with little impact, until a tipping point is reached that causes the AMOC to suddenly weaken and the Northern Hemisphere to abruptly cool. A great deal of uncertainty still remains over the sensitivity of the AMOC to changes in freshwater discharge as a result of the unrealistic manner in which freshwater has historically been added to climate models. Frequently, freshwater is discharged in ocean models entirely as liquid water, but in reality a large fraction of freshwater entering the ocean is ice calving from marine glaciers (half for Antarctica and two-thirds for Greenland). To more accurately quantify AMOC sensitivity to past and future changes in freshwater input, this project developed a comprehensive iceberg model to more realistically simulate the interaction between the cryosphere and the oceans at high-latitudes. The iceberg model created is written in Fortran90 and designed to scale efficiently on High Performance Computing (HPC) clusters so that tens-of-thousands of icebergs can be simulated at any time. Experiments performed with our model showed that in the Pleistocene there would have been enormous floods of freshwater released into the North Atlantic that would have transported icebergs and meltwater along the entire east coast of the United States, as far south as Florida Keys. In addition, high-resolution, modern-day, model simulations showed that if the Greenland Ice Sheet continues to melt at its current rate then there will be a 6-fold increase in the number of icebergs drifting in the North Atlantic in the next 30 years, and that the strength of the AMOC could weaken by 3.5%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Final Report: Quantification of Uncertainty in Extreme Scale Computations (QUEST)

QUEST (\url{www.quest-scidac.org}) is a SciDAC Institute that is focused on uncertainty quantification (UQ) in large-scale scientific computations. Our goals are to (1) advance the state of the art in UQ mathematics, algorithms, and software; and (2) provide modeling, algorithmic, and general UQ expertise, together with software tools, to other SciDAC projects, thereby enabling and guiding a broad range of UQ activities in their respective contexts. QUEST is a collaboration among six institutions (Sandia National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, the University of Southern California, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of Texas at Austin, and Duke University) with a history of joint UQ research. Our vision encompasses all aspects of UQ in leadership-class computing. This includes the well-founded setup of UQ problems; characterization of the input space given available data/information; local and global sensitivity analysis; adaptive dimensionality and order reduction; forward and inverse propagation of uncertainty; handling of application code failures, missing data, and hardware/software fault tolerance; and model inadequacy, comparison, validation, selection, and averaging. The nature of the UQ problem requires the seamless combination of data, models, and information across this landscape in a manner that provides a self-consistent quantification of requisite uncertainties in predictions from computational models. Accordingly, our UQ methods and tools span an interdisciplinary space across applied math, information theory, and statistics. The MIT QUEST effort centers on statistical inference and methods for surrogate or reduced-order modeling. MIT personnel have been responsible for the development of adaptive sampling methods, methods for approximating computationally intensive models, and software for both forward uncertainty propagation and statistical inverse problems. A key software product of the MIT QUEST effort is the MIT Uncertainty Quantification library, called MUQ (\url{muq.mit.edu}).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗