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NASA NTRS1990

Impact of a process improvement program in a production software environment: Are we any better?

For the past 15 years, Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC) has participated in a process improvement program as a member of the Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL), which is sponsored by GSFC. The benefits CSC has derived from involvement in this program are analyzed. In the environment studied, it shows that improvements were indeed achieved, as evidenced by a decrease in error rates and costs over a period in which both the size and the complexity of the developed systems increased substantially. The principles and mechanics of the process improvement program, the lessons CSC has learned, and how CSC has capitalized on these lessons are also discussed.

Heller, Gerard H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

DASL-Data and Activities for Solar Learning

DASL-Data and Activities for Solar Learning Data and Activities for Solar Learning (DASL) provides a classroom learning environment based on a twenty-five year record of solar magnetograms from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) at Kitt Peak, AZ. The data, together with image processing software for Macs or PCs, can be used to learn basic facts about the Sun and astronomy at the middle school level. At the high school level, students can study properties of the Sun's magnetic cycle with classroom exercises emphasizing data and error analysis and can participate in a new scientific study, Research in Active Solar Longitudes (RASL), in collaboration with classrooms throughout the country and scientists at NSO and NASA. We present a half-day course to train teachers in the scientific content of the project and its classroom use. We will provide a compact disc with the data and software and will demonstrate software installation and use, classroom exercises, and participation in RASL with computer projection.

Jones, Harrison P.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Rules for Optical Testing

Based on 30 years of optical testing experience, a lot of mistakes, a lot of learning and a lot of experience, I have defined seven guiding principles for optical testing - regardless of how small or how large the optical testing or metrology task: Fully Understand the Task, Develop an Error Budget, Continuous Metrology Coverage, Know where you are, Test like you fly, Independent Cross-Checks, Understand All Anomalies. These rules have been applied with great success to the inprocess optical testing and final specification compliance testing of the JWST mirrors.

Stahl, H. Philip↗

NASA NTRS2002

Human Factors Directions for Civil Aviation

Despite considerable progress in understanding human capabilities and limitations, incorporating human factors into aircraft design, operation, and certification, and the emergence of new technologies designed to reduce workload and enhance human performance in the system, most aviation accidents still involve human errors. Such errors occur as a direct or indirect result of untimely, inappropriate, or erroneous actions (or inactions) by apparently well-trained and experienced pilots, controllers, and maintainers. The field of human factors has solved many of the more tractable problems related to simple ergonomics, cockpit layout, symbology, and so on. We have learned much about the relationships between people and machines, but know less about how to form successful partnerships between humans and the information technologies that are beginning to play a central role in aviation. Significant changes envisioned in the structure of the airspace, pilots and controllers' roles and responsibilities, and air/ground technologies will require a similarly significant investment in human factors during the next few decades to ensure the effective integration of pilots, controllers, dispatchers, and maintainers into the new system. Many of the topics that will be addressed are not new because progress in crucial areas, such as eliminating human error, has been slow. A multidisciplinary approach that capitalizes upon human studies and new classes of information, computational models, intelligent analytical tools, and close collaborations with organizations that build, operate, and regulate aviation technology will ensure that the field of human factors meets the challenge.

Hart, Sandra G.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials using MALAMUTE

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy aims to develop and qualify additively manufactured materials for nuclear applications. One key challenge to this is the microstructural variability observed in the additively manufactured products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-throughput experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate qualification. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the additive manufacturing process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture microstructural variability is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning models to develop a digital twin for additive manufacturing that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the additive process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the unique microstructural characteristics of additively manufactured materials. Microstructural features at the subgrain level, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. Idaho National Laboratory’s Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for additively manufactured materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work focuses on capturing the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. In fiscal year 2025, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, in terms of the predictive capabilities of the physics-based and ML models, by adding the capabilities to capture subgrain-level micro-segregation during solidification using phase-field model and to predict the time-dependent dynamics of the AM process through the MOGPAR model. The alloy solidification model in MOOSE incorporates the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316 stainless steel. The model demonstrates the Cr and Ni segregation that occurs during solidification, including that the rate of solidification. The microstructural evolution model is connected to the process conditions via the surrogate model developed in this work. This enables predictions of the final microstructure in conjunctions with the manufacturing process. This work supports AMMT's rapid qualification goals by laying the foundation for an efficient and cost-effective model establishing the PSPP correlation for AM. The generated microstructures and predicted micro-segregation can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work helps to identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property and performance predictions of additively manufactured components. This work will also provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions and simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work can help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for additive manufacturing and accelerate the AMMT's qualification efforts.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2023

Benefits of Ka-band GaN MMIC High Power Amplifiers With Wide Bandwidth and High Spectral/Power Added Efficiencies for Cognitive Radio Platforms

A cognitive radio on a future NASA near-Earth spacecraft will be capable of sensing its environment and dynamically adapting its operating parameters to provide the desired SATCOM service to the mission. A key component that can enable this type of operation is a high-power amplifier (HPA) that resides on the radio platform. In this report, we present the RF performance characteristics of a Ka-band gallium nitride (GaN) monolithic microwave integrated circuit (MMIC) based HPA for cognitive radio platforms. These characteristics include the output power, gain, power added efficiency (PAE), RMS error vector magnitude (EVM), spectral efficiency, 3rdorder intermodulation distortion (IMD) products, spectrum, spectral regrowth, noise figure (NF), phase noise, and group delay. The data presented indicates that the HPA meets NTIA, military, and commercial spectral mask requirements. In addition, we discuss the benefits offered by the above performance characteristics toward the design and implementation of a cognitive radio platform. Furthermore, as examples, we discuss three potential use cases that apply artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques and exploit the performance characteristics discussed above to provide a knowledge-based cognitive radio platform design for SATCOM. Thus, cognitive radios with performance flexibility can enable roaming and provide seamless interoperability autonomously in the future between NASA, commercial, and other space networks owned by U.S. government agencies.

Gallium nitride↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detecting Satellite Laser Ranging Station Data and Operational Anomalies with Machine Learning Isolation Forests at NASA's CDDIS

The International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) is currently composed of 45 active satellite laser ranging (SLR) stations with several more set to join the network over the next several years. Station changes and histories are logged to files, but not always in real time. Sometimes these details are not added until long after changes have been made to the station –on occasion, years later. This in addition to unexpected hardware errors and other system issues that are not immediately detected impact the products generated by analysts. The ILRS Central Bureau (CB) and NASA’s Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS) have worked to provide tools for station engineers to use. This includes the creation of station plots which contain temperature and pressure information along with LAser GEOdynamic Satellite (LAGEOS) and LAser RElativity Satellite (LARES) tracking information that enable the monitoring of station performance and todetermine whether the station has undergone any changes. As next steps, the CDDIS is working to enhance these station performance monitoring tools through machine learning. Isolation forest is an unsupervised machine learning algorithm commonly applied to anomaly detection. In this poster, the CDDIS details the steps taken to track anomalies within SLR station performance using isolation forest with LAGEOS and LARES satellite data.

Benjamin P Michael↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Prediction of Aircraft Estimated Time of Arrival Using A Supervised Learning Approach

We present a novel data-driven approach for prediction of the estimated time of arrival (ETA) of aircraft in the terminal area via the implementation of a Random Forest regression model. The model uses data fused from a number of sources (flight track, weather, flight plan information, etc.) and provides predictions for the remaining flight time for aircraft landing at Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport. The predictions are made when the aircraft is at a distance of 200-miles from the airport. The results show that the model is able to predict estimated time of arrival to within ± 5 min for 90% of the flights in the test data with the mean absolute error being lower at 145 seconds. This paper covers the entire pipeline of data collection, preprocessing, setup and training of the ML model, and the results obtained for DFW.

Machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2025

Gold-Standard Chemical Database 137 (GSCDB137): A Diverse Set of Accurate Energy Differences for Assessing and Developing Density Functionals

We present GSCDB137, a rigorously curated benchmark library of 137 data sets (8377 entries) covering main-group and transition-metal reaction energies and barrier heights, (intra- and intermolecular) noncovalent interactions, dipole moments, polarizabilities, electric-field response energies, and vibrational frequencies. Legacy data from GMTKN55 and MGCDB84 have been updated to today's best reference values; redundant or low-quality points were removed, and many new, property-focused sets were added. Testing 29 popular density functional approximations (DFAs) confirms the expected Jacob's-ladder hierarchy overall but also reveals notable exceptions: functional performance for frequencies and electric-field properties correlates poorly with that for other ground-state energetics. ωB97M-V and ωB97X-V are the most balanced hybrid meta-GGA and hybrid GGA, respectively; B97M-V and revPBE-D4 lead the meta-GGA and GGA classes. Double hybrids lower mean errors by about 30% versus their hybrid analogues but demand careful frozen-core, basis set, and spin contamination treatment. GSCDB137 offers a comprehensive, openly documented platform for rigorous validation of DFA and universal machine learning potentials, and training of the next generation of exchange-correlation functionals.

Liang, Jiashu [University of California, Berkeley,↗

DOE OSTI2025

Basic Research Needs for Inverse Methods for Complex Systems under Uncertainty

Inverse problems, which aim to infer unknown properties of a system using experimental and observational data, are central to addressing many of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) most critical scientific and engineering challenges. Accurate, computationally efficient, and data-efficient solutions to inverse problems are essential for advancing DOE mission-critical science drivers, including analyzing data from large-scale experimental facilities, optimizing fusion reactor performance, accelerating materials discovery, enhancing geophysical imaging, improving wildfire predictions, and enabling autonomous systems and digital twins. However, these problems are becoming increasingly complex, often involving nonlinear, highdimensional, and interconnected systems and models that span multiple physics and scales, while relying on data with varying quantity, quality, and information content. Compounding these challenges is the uncertainty inherent in DOE-relevant systems, where errors in inputs, noise in data, incompleteness of data, and discrepancies between models and reality constrain the accuracy and precision of solutions. At the same time, the convergence of recent scientific computing trends—scientific machine learning, artificial intelligence, and computing advances such as exascale computing—is creating unprecedented opportunities for tackling these challenges. The cross-cutting nature of inverse problems, combined with their growing complexity and rapidly evolving data and algorithmic demands, strongly motivates the formulation of a prioritized research agenda to maximize their capabilities and impact. In response to this need, DOE’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program in the Office of Science convened the Workshop on Basic Research Needs for Inverse Problems for Complex Systems Under Uncertainty in June 2025. This workshop brought together experts across disciplines to identify grand challenges and major opportunities in the field. Through collaborative discussions, the workshop defined transformative research directions aimed at addressing the mathematical, statistical, and computational challenges posed by inverse problems under uncertainty. As a result of these efforts, four priority research directions (PRDs) were identified to guide future research and development in this area. These PRDs, summarized below, represent a roadmap for advancing the foundational science and mathematics of inverse problems, enabling robust, scalable, and uncertainty-aware solutions that are critical for DOE applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1999

NASA Space Mechanisms Handbook: Lessons Learned Documented

The need to improve space mechanism reliability is underscored by a long history of flight failures and anomalies caused by malfunctioning mechanisms on spacecraft and launch vehicles. Some examples of these failures are listed in a table. Because much experience has been gained over the years, many specialized design practices have evolved and many unsatisfactory design approaches have been identified.NASA and the NASA Lewis Research Center conducted a Lessons Learned Study (refs. 1 and 2) and wrote a handbook to document what has been learned in the past. The primary goals of the handbook were to identify desirable and undesirable design practices for space mechanisms and to reduce the number of failures caused by the repetition of past design errors. Another goal was to identify a variety of design approaches for specific applications and to provide the associated considerations and caveats for each approach in an effort to help designers choose the approach most suitable for each application. This technical summary outlines the goals and objectives of the handbook and study as well as the contents of the handbook.

Fusaro, Robert L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

MISR: protection from ourselves

Outlines lessons learned by the Instrument Operations Team of NASA/JPL Terra's Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer mission. It narrates a story of MISR: Protection from Ourselves! and describes, in detail, how the MISR instrument survived operator errors.

MISR operations↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Legacy of Space Shuttle Flight Software

The initial goals of the Space Shuttle Program required that the avionics and software systems blaze new trails in advancing avionics system technology. Many of the requirements placed on avionics and software were accomplished for the first time on this program. Examples include comprehensive digital fly-by-wire technology, use of a digital databus for flight critical functions, fail operational/fail safe requirements, complex automated redundancy management, and the use of a high-order software language for flight software development. In order to meet the operational and safety goals of the program, the Space Shuttle software had to be extremely high quality, reliable, robust, reconfigurable and maintainable. To achieve this, the software development team evolved a software process focused on continuous process improvement and defect elimination that consistently produced highly predictable and top quality results, providing software managers the confidence needed to sign each Certificate of Flight Readiness (COFR). This process, which has been appraised at Capability Maturity Model (CMM)/Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) Level 5, has resulted in one of the lowest software defect rates in the industry. This paper will present an overview of the evolution of the Primary Avionics Software System (PASS) project and processes over thirty years, an argument for strong statistical control of software processes with examples, an overview of the success story for identifying and driving out errors before flight, a case study of the few significant software issues and how they were either identified before flight or slipped through the process onto a flight vehicle, and identification of the valuable lessons learned over the life of the project.

Hickey, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Fuzzy Modeling and Parallel Distributed Compensation for Aircraft Flight Control from Simulated Flight Data

A method is described that combines fuzzy system identification techniques with Parallel Distributed Compensation (PDC) to develop nonlinear control methods for aircraft using minimal a priori knowledge, as part of NASA’s Learn-to-Fly initiative. A fuzzy model was generated with simulated flight data, and consisted of a weighted average of multiple linear time invariant state-space cells having parameters estimated using the equation-error approach and a least-squares estimator. A compensator was designed for each subsystem using Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMI) to guarantee closed-loop stability and performance requirements. This approach is demonstrated using simulated flight data to automatically develop a fuzzy model and design control laws for a simplified longitudinal approximation of the F-16 nonlinear flight dynamics simulation. Results include a comparison of flight data with the estimated fuzzy models and simulations that illustrate the feasibility and utility of the combined fuzzy modeling and control approach.

Weinstein, Rose↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials Using MALAMUTE

Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, aims to develop and qualify additively-manufactured materials for nuclear applications. The key challenges to these efforts are the microstructural variabilities observed on the AM products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-through-put experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate the qualification efforts. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the AM process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture the microstructural variabilities is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning modeling capabilities to develop a digital twin for AM that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation for AM materials. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the AM process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for AM materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the various microstructural characteristics of the AM materials. Microstructures unique to AM materials, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. In fiscal year (FY) 24, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, both on physics-based and ML models. The alloy solidification model available in MOOSE has been extended to incorporate the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316SS. The model demonstrates the Cr segregation that occurs during solidifcation. It is demonstrated that rate of solidification and solute segregation is primarily influence by the cooling rate dictating the level of freezing. This work captures the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. With an aim to connect the microstructural evolution model to realistic process conditions, a reduced order model is developed for predicting the thermal conditions around meltpool from high-fidelity process simulations. Furthermore, machine learning approach is used to accelerate the temperature prediction during the AM process. In the following years, MALAMUTE will be used to connect different aspects of the models and quantitatively predict the microstructural evolution. The developed ML-based surrogate model will consider the process conditions as the input to predict the microstructural features in a cost-effective way. The generated microstructures can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work help identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property/performance prediction of the AM products. This work will provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions/simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work will help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Benefits of Ka-band GaN MMIC High Power Amplifiers With Wide Bandwidth and High Spectral/Power Added Efficiencies for Cognitive Radio Platforms

A cognitive radio on a future NASA near-Earth spacecraft will be capable of sensing its environment and dynamically adapting its operating parameters to provide the desired SATCOM service to the mission. A key component that can enable this type of operation is a high-power amplifier (HPA) that resides on the radio platform. In this paper, we present the RF performance characteristics of a Ka-band gallium nitride (GaN) monolithic microwave integrated circuit (MMIC) based HPA for cognitive radio platforms. These characteristics include the output power, gain, power added efficiency (PAE), RMS error vector magnitude (EVM), spectral efficiency, 3rd-order intermodulation distortion (IMD) products, spectrum, spectral regrowth, noise figure (NF), and phase noise. The data presented indicates that the HPA meets NTIA, military, and commercial spectral mask requirements. In addition, we discuss the benefits offered by the above performance characteristics toward the design and implementation of a cognitive radio platform. Furthermore, as examples, we discuss three potential use cases that apply artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques and exploit the performance characteristics discussed above to provide a knowledge-based cognitive radio platform design for SATCOM. Thus, cognitive radios with performance flexibility can enable roaming and provide seamless interoperability autonomously in the future between NASA, commercial, and other space networks owned by U.S. government agencies.

Gallium nitride↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of classical statistics on thermal conductivity predictions of BAs and diamond using machine learning molecular dynamics

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have greatly enhanced molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, achieving near-first-principles accuracy in thermal conductivity studies. In this work, we reveal that this accuracy, observed in BAs and diamond at sub-Debye temperatures, stems from an accidental error cancelation: classical statistics overestimates specific heat while underestimating phonon lifetimes, balancing out in thermal conductivity predictions. However, this balance is disrupted when isotopes are introduced, leading MLIP-based MD to significantly underpredict thermal conductivity compared to experiments and quantum statistics-based Boltzmann transport equation. This discrepancy arises not from classical statistics affecting phonon–isotope scattering rates but from its impact on the interplay between phonon–isotope and phonon–phonon scattering in the normal scattering-dominated BAs and diamond. In conclusion, this work underscores the limitations of MLIP-based MD for thermal conductivity studies at sub-Debye temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Intelligent Solar Control Software Through Hardware-in-the-Loop (CRADA Final Report)

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been developed by Latimer Controls, Inc. to estimate the headroom of large PV plants for grid operation and control; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. Latimer Controls, Inc. received two voucher awards for research at a national laboratory from the Department of Energy American Made Solar Prize Round 6. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected to collaborate with Latimer staff to conduct a performance evaluation of Latimer PV control software. The NREL team will develop a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed to perform testing and validation of the Latimer PV control technology in a de-risked yet realistic testbed environment. Latimer and NREL worked together to analyze the test data, draw conclusions from the results, and disseminate the resulting scientific findings. In this CRADA work, we propose to test and validate the real-world application of the Latimer Control solution in an HIL environment. We evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. In particular, a data-driven potential high limit (PHL) estimation is developed for large solar plants to accurately estimate their headroom so that they have fast and short-time regulation and control capability to participate in grid services and respond to grid signals in real time (e.g., AGC). This PHL estimation algorithm is embedded in a hardware power plant controller (PPC) and tested with an IEEE-39 bus system model developed in RTDS. To account for the varying cloud conditions and diverse inverter dispatches, we developed a 135-MW PV plant with detailed modeling of 27 individual PV modules and inverters using RTDS. The real-world communications used in such big plants, such as ModBus TCP/IP for inverter level and DNP3 for plant level, were developed to emulate the real-world applications in big PV plants. The ML-based PHL estimation method is tested under nine separate weather scenarios against the ‘reference-control’ solution, hereafter referred to as the baseline solution. The baseline method reserves a subset of inverters (reference group) to operate at their PHL at all times and dispatches only the remaining inverters (control group) at curtailed levels to fulfill the flexibility need. Despite being successfully piloted by NREL in California in 2017 and Chile in 2020, there exist two gaps in the state of the art to fully unlock the flexibility of PV plants: a. There is a trade-off between the PHL estimation accuracy and the flexibility range. b. There lacks granularity in the PHL estimation to capture the variation across inverters. The Latimer solution seeks to address these gaps by applying machine learning methods to improve PHL estimation accuracy while accounting for variability at every inverter. Performance metrics were taken from the 2023 Georgia Power CARES utility-scale RFP. The results demonstrate that the ML-based approach outperforms the traditional baseline method in PHL estimation accuracy for 7 of 9 scenarios. The average PHL error across the nine scenarios was 7.40% for the ML-based method, 2.06% less than the 9.46% PHL error average across scenarios that was exhibited by the baseline method. Additionally, the PHL error was below 5% for at least 95% of the testing interval for 3 of 9 tested intervals with the ML approach, whereas it did not achieve this metric for any of the baseline tests. Overall, simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional baseline reference-control approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency. This laboratory HIL testing using real PPC, representative power system simulation models in real-time with detailed PV plant and inverter models, and real-world communication protocols gives us confidence that this machine learning based PHL estimation algorithm works well in the hardware PPC and therefore de-risks future field commissioning. The end goal of this project is to advance grid technology to address the grid operation challenges brought by solar plant’s variability and uncertainties in power generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗