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DOE OSTI2026

Yield Estimates of three Historical Atmospheric Nuclear Explosions at Lop Nor, from Reduced Order Models of Regionally Recorded Rayleigh Waveforms and One Seismic Station: A Brief Communication

We use a reduced order model (ROM) for Rayleigh waveforms sourced by large atmospheric explosions along with data collected from a single seismic station (TLG) to estimate the yields of three atmospheric nuclear tests with order-megaton (MT) yields. These historical tests were conducted by China between 1973 and 1980 (CHIC 15, CHIC 16, and CHIC 26). We use our ROM to estimate yields of 2.34 MT (CHIC 15), 0.51 MT (CHIC 16), and 1.15 (CHIC 26) in the 20.5 s period band that are consistent with publicly accepted values of 3 MT (CHIC 15), 0.50 MT (CHIC 16), and 0.730 MT (CHIC 26).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1982

Creep crack-growth: A new path-independent integral (T sub c), and computational studies

The development of valid creep fracture criteria is considered. Two path-independent integral parameters which show some degree of promise are the C* and (Delta T)sub c integrals. The mathematical aspects of these parameters are reviewed by deriving generalized vector forms of the parameters using conservation laws which are valid for arbitrary, three dimensional, cracked bodies with crack surface tractions (or applied displacements), body forces, inertial effects, and large deformations. Two principal conclusions are that (Delta T)sub c has an energy rate interpretation whereas C* does not. The development and application of fracture criteria often involves the solution of boundary/initial value problems associated with deformation and stresses. The finite element method is used for this purpose. An efficient, small displacement, infinitesimal strain, displacement based finite element model is specialized to two dimensional plane stress and plane strain and to power law creep constitutive relations. A mesh shifting/remeshing procedure is used for simulating crack growth. The model is implemented with the quartz-point node technique and also with specially developed, conforming, crack-tip singularity elements which provide for the r to the n-(1+n) power strain singularity associated with the HRR crack-tip field. Comparisons are made with a variety of analytical solutions and alternate numerical solutions for a number of problems.

Stonesifer, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Classification of journal surfaces using surface topography parameters and software methods to compensate for stylus geometry

Measurements made with a stylus surface tracer which provides a digitized representation of a surface profile are discussed. Parameters are defined to characterize the height (e.g., RMS roughness, skewness, and kurtosis) and length (e.g., autocorrelation) of the surface topography. These are applied to the characterization of crank shaft journals which were manufactured by different grinding and lopping procedures known to give significant differences in crank shaft bearing life. It was found that three parameters (RMS roughness, skewness, and kurtosis) are necessary to adequately distinguish the character of these surfaces. Every surface specimen has a set of values for these three parameters. They can be regarded as a set coordinate in a space constituted by three characteristics axes. The various journal surfaces can be classified along with the determination of a proper wavelength cutoff (0.25 mm) by using a method of separated subspace. The finite radius of the stylus used for profile tracing gives an inherent measurement error as it passes over the fine structure of the surface. A mathematical model is derived to compensate for this error.

Li, C. J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Nonlinear rotordynamics analysis

The special nonlinearities of the Jeffcott equations in rotordynamics are examined. The immediate application of this analysis is directed toward understanding the excessive vibrations recorded in the LOX pump of the SSME during hot firing ground testing. Deadband, side force and rubbing are three possible sources of inducing nonlinearity in the Jeffcott equations. The present analysis initially reduces these problems to the same mathematical description. A special frequency, named the nonlinear natural frequency is defined and used to develop the solutions of the nonlinear Jeffcott equations as asympotic expansions. This nonlinear natural frequency which is the ratio of the cross-stiffness and the damping, plays a major role in determining response frequencies. Numerical solutions are included for comparison with the analysis. Also, nonlinear frequency-response tables are made for a typical range of values.

Day, W. B.↗

NASA NTRS1984

The orbital motion of Comet Halley

Since comet Halley is to be studied with spacecraft, new requirements arise for the accuracy to which the position of the methodology of constructing an exact theory is presented. The effect of all kinds of errors in building a mathematical model of motion and the effect of a shift of Halley's center-of-mass relative to the optical center are analyzed. The theory is based on the optical, angular observations of 1911 back to 1759 reduced to the mean equator and epoch of 1950.0 as well as the relative observations of 1682. The observations of 1982 were used to control the accuracy of the theory developed. Deviations of calculated values from measured values do not exceed 1.5 which confirms the good degree of accuracy of this theory. The comet's orbit is obtained using current optical data.

Savchenko, V. V.↗

NASA NTRS1932

A New Principle of Sound Frequency Analysis

In connection with the study of aircraft and propeller noises, the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics has developed an instrument for sound-frequency analysis which differs fundamentally from previous types, and which, owing to its simplicity of principle, construction, and operation, has proved to be of value in this investigation. The method is based on the well-known fact that the Ohmic loss in an electrical resistance is equal to the sum of the losses of the harmonic components of a complex wave, except for the case in which any two components approach or attain vectorial identity, in which case the Ohmic loss is increased by a definite amount. The principle of frequency analysis has been presented mathematically and a number of distinct advantages relative to previous methods have been pointed out. An automatic recording instrument embodying this principle is described in detail. It employs a beat-frequency oscillator as a source of variable frequency. A large number of experiments have verified the predicted superiority of the method. A number of representative records are presented.

Theodorsen, Theodore↗

NASA NTRS1974

Relative motion of orbiting particles under the influence of perturbing forces. Volume 2: Analytical results

The mathematical developments carried out for this investigation are reported. In addition to describing and discussing the solutions which were acquired, there are compendia of data presented herein which summarize the equations and describe them as representative trace geometries. In this analysis the relative motion problems have been referred to two particular frames of reference; one which is inertially aligned, and one which is (local) horizon oriented. In addition to obtaining the classical initial values solutions, there are results which describe cases having applied specific forces serving as forcing functions. Also, in order to provide a complete state representation the speed components, as well as the displacements, have been described. These coordinates are traced on representative planes analogous to the displacement geometries. By this procedure a complete description of a relative motion is developed; and, as a consequence range rate as well as range information is obtained.

Eades, J. B., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Skeletal Recovery Following Long-Duration Spaceflight Missions as Determined by Preflight and Postflight DXA Scans of 45 Crew Members

Introduction: The loss of bone mineral in astronauts during spaceflight has been investigated throughout the more than 40 years of bone research in space. Consequently, it is a medical requirement at NASA that changes in bone mass be monitored in crew members by measurements of bone mineral density (BMD) with dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). This report is the first to evaluate medical data to address the recovery of bone mineral that is lost during spaceflight. Methods: DXA scans are performed before and after flight in astronauts who serve on long-duration missions (4-6 months) to ensure that medical standards for flight certification are met, to evaluate the effects of spaceflight and to monitor the restoration to preflight BMD status after return to Earth. Through cooperative agreements with the Russian Space Agency, the Bone and Mineral Lab at NASA Johnson Space Center (Houston, TX), also had access to BMD data from cosmonauts who had flown on long-duration missions yielding data from a total of 45 individual crew members. Changes in BMD (between 56 different sets of pre- and postflight measurements) were plotted as a function of time (days after landing); plotted data were fitted to an exponential mathematical model that determined i) BMD change at day 0 after landing and ii) the number of days after which 50% of the lost bone was recovered ("Recovery Half-Life"). These fits were performed for BMD of the lumbar spine, trochanter, pelvis, femoral neck and calcaneus. Results: In sum, averaged losses of bone mineral after spaceflight ranged between 2-9% for sites in the axial and appendicular skeleton. The fitted postflight BMD values predicted a 50% recovery of bone loss for all sites within 9 months.

Sibonga, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Hypersonic vehicle model and control law development using H(infinity) and micron synthesis

The control system design for a Single Stage To Orbit (SSTO) air breathing vehicle will be central to a successful mission because a precise ascent trajectory will preserve narrow payload margins. The air breathing propulsion system requires the vehicle to fly roughly halfway around the Earth through atmospheric turbulence. The turbulence, the high sensitivity of the propulsion system to inlet flow conditions, the relatively large uncertainty of the parameters characterizing the vehicle, and continuous acceleration make the problem especially challenging. Adequate stability margins must be provided without sacrificing payload mass since payload margins are critical. Therefore, a multivariable control theory capable of explicitly including both uncertainty and performance is needed. The H(infinity) controller in general provides good robustness but can result in conservative solutions for practical problems involving structured uncertainty. Structured singular value mu framework for analysis and synthesis is potentially much less conservative and hence more appropriate for problems with tight margins. An SSTO control system requires: highly accurate tracking of velocity and altitude commands while limiting angle-of-attack oscillations, minimized control power usage, and a stabilized vehicle when atmospheric turbulence and system uncertainty are present. The controller designs using H(infinity) and mu-synthesis procedures were compared. An integrated flight/propulsion dynamic mathematical model of a conical accelerator vehicle was linearized as the vehicle accelerated through Mach 8. Vehicle acceleration through the selected flight condition gives rise to parametric variation that was modeled as a structured uncertainty. The mu-analysis approach was used in the frequency domain to conduct controller analysis and was confirmed by time history plots. Results demonstrate the inherent advantages of the mu framework for this class of problems.

Gregory, Irene M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Compendium of Wind Statistics and Models for the NASA Space Shuttle and Other Aerospace Vehicle Programs

The wind profile with all of its variations with respect to altitude has been, is now, and will continue to be important for aerospace vehicle design and operations. Wind profile databases and models are used for the vehicle ascent flight design for structural wind loading, flight control systems, performance analysis, and launch operations. This report presents the evolution of wind statistics and wind models from the empirical scalar wind profile model established for the Saturn Program through the development of the vector wind profile model used for the Space Shuttle design to the variations of this wind modeling concept for the X-33 program. Because wind is a vector quantity, the vector wind models use the rigorous mathematical probability properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution. When the vehicle ascent steering commands (ascent guidance) are wind biased to the wind profile measured on the day-of-launch, ascent structural wind loads are reduced and launch probability is increased. This wind load alleviation technique is recommended in the initial phase of vehicle development. The vehicle must fly through the largest load allowable versus altitude to achieve its mission. The Gumbel extreme value probability distribution is used to obtain the probability of exceeding (or not exceeding) the load allowable. The time conditional probability function is derived from the Gumbel bivariate extreme value distribution. This time conditional function is used for calculation of wind loads persistence increments using 3.5-hour Jimsphere wind pairs. These increments are used to protect the commit-to-launch decision. Other topics presented include the Shuttle Shuttle load-response to smoothed wind profiles, a new gust model, and advancements in wind profile measuring systems. From the lessons learned and knowledge gained from past vehicle programs, the development of future launch vehicles can be accelerated. However, new vehicle programs by their very nature will require specialized support for new databases and analyses for wind, atmospheric parameters (pressure, temperature, and density versus altitude), and weather. It is for this reason that project managers are encouraged to collaborate with natural environment specialists early in the conceptual design phase. Such action will give the lead time necessary to meet the natural environment design and operational requirements, and thus, reduce development costs.

Smith, O. E.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Control for Load-Following of Boiling Water Reactors Part I: Linear Systems and Fully-Observable Dynamics

Automation control is a key strategy to improve the economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants. Not only does it help reduce operational costs, but it also extends the value proposition of these plants to nontraditional markets, including unattended operations in remote villages and space. However, the dynamics of the operating environments of nuclear reactors are subject to changes over time, and there are no widely adopted methods to ensure that the automation strategy will remain effective over the extended durations required for these applications. Adaptive control is a discipline that offers the possibility to accommodate such changes online. However, it relies on mathematical assumptions that must be respected to ensure robustness and reliability. In this work, we derive an adaptive control formulation for linear systems in which all states are observable and apply it to an instance of load-follow operation for Boiling Water Reactors. We assumed uncertainty in two factors: the temperature coefficient and the control rod worth, both of which are affected over time by the evolution of the nuclear reactor core environment. With an arbitrary penalty factor of 5, we found that the mean absolute and integral time absolute errors can be reduced by more than 90%, underscoring the strength of adaptive control. To extend the application to more challenges, different uncertainties and load-follow trajectories, as well as new formulations that include non-linearity and partial observability, are currently being developed.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Powered by dGen Webinar [Slides]

NLR's Powered By Webinar Series featuring NLR's dGen Modeling Tool. The Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGenTM) model simulates customer adoption of distributed energy resources for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the United States or other countries through 2050. The model enables analysis at multiple geographic levels (national, state, and utility, or below) and offers sophistication in representation of decision-making regarding economic and behavioral considerations. Analysts have used dGen to answer questions about load forecasting and integrated resource planning, policy analysis, locational value of distributed energy resources, and more. dGen is open source, and various energy organizations - including independent system operators, regional transmission organizations, and the California Energy Commission - use the model internally.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1986

Definition and verification of a complex aircraft for aerodynamic calculations

Techniques are reviewed which are of value in CAD/CAM CFD studies of the geometries of new fighter aircraft. In order to refine the computations of the flows to take advantage of the computing power available from supercomputers, it is often necessary to interpolate the geometry of the mesh selected for the numerical analysis of the aircraft shape. Interpolating the geometry permits a higher level of detail in calculations of the flow past specific regions of a design. A microprocessor-based mathematics engine is described for fast image manipulation and rotation to verify that the interpolated geometry will correspond to the design geometry in order to ensure that the flow calculations will remain valid through the interpolation. Applications of the image manipulation system to verify geometrical representations with wire-frame and shaded-surface images are described.

Edwards, T. A.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Mathematical optimization of photovoltaic converters for diode lasers

The mathematical optimization of vertical-junction photovoltaic converters for use with diode laser arrays supplying powers up to 1 MW is discussed. Photovoltaic parameters were optimized using a mathematical model. The optimized converters have 500 single junctions connected in series. The efficiency varies from 41 percent for a 0.73-micron diode laser to 46 percent for a 0.83-micron diode laser. The optimum width of the single-junction converter is small, 3.0 microns, in order for the p-n junction to be within a diffusion length of the light-generated carriers. Another critical parameter is the series resistance; the optimum value of 0.001 ohms should be achievable. Another critical parameter is the donor carrier concentration, for which an optimum value of 5 x 10 to the 15th carriers/cu cm has been chosen.

Walker, Gilbert H.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Side-by-Side Comparison of Subhourly Clipping Models

Over the past several years there have been numerous attempts at quantifying the inherent power clipping of inverters due to sub-hourly irradiance variability that is not captured in hourly PV performance models. Different models have been proposed to correct for these clipping losses in PV performance estimates, including matrix lookup models, distribution modeling of the PV power performance within a given hour, and machine learning methods. To date, there have been few comprehensive quantitative comparisons of these inverter clipping correction modeling approaches to evaluate the effectiveness of these approaches in predicting the actual behavior of PV system inverter clipping. In this study, we perform such a comparison, evaluating the Allen and Walker correction loss modeling approaches recently implemented in the System Advisor Model (SAM) against clipping losses modeled with 1-minute climate data. These comparisons were performed across a variety of climate locations and inverter loading ratios to thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of these modeling approaches relative to each other. Results from this analysis reveal that both clipping correction approaches improve annual energy accuracy to within 2% of 1-minute modeled energy yield. The two models predict annual clipping loss more accurately than simple hourly power limit clipping, with the Allen method typically being slightly more accurate at typical ILR values and the Walker method often being slightly more accurate at high ILR values The models can improve accuracy over the status quo clipping approach up to 3 percentage points in systems with ILR of 2.0, showing the importance of this modeling factor in energy yield estimates.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,MATHEMATICS A↗

NASA NTRS2005

Bidirectional Classical Stochastic Processes with Measurements and Feedback

A measurement on a quantum system is said to cause the "collapse" of the quantum state vector or density matrix. An analogous collapse occurs with measurements on a classical stochastic process. This paper addresses the question of describing the response of a classical stochastic process when there is feedback from the output of a measurement to the input, and is intended to give a model for quantum-mechanical processes that occur along a space-like reaction coordinate. The classical system can be thought of in physical terms as two counterflowing probability streams, which stochastically exchange probability currents in a way that the net probability current, and hence the overall probability, suitably interpreted, is conserved. The proposed formalism extends the . mathematics of those stochastic processes describable with linear, single-step, unidirectional transition probabilities, known as Markov chains and stochastic matrices. It is shown that a certain rearrangement and combination of the input and output of two stochastic matrices of the same order yields another matrix of the same type. Each measurement causes the partial collapse of the probability current distribution in the midst of such a process, giving rise to calculable, but non-Markov, values for the ensuing modification of the system's output probability distribution. The paper concludes with an analysis of a classical probabilistic version of the so-called grandfather paradox.

Hahne, G. E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Provable bounds for noise-free expectation values computed from noisy samples

Quantum computing has emerged as a powerful computational paradigm capable of solving problems beyond the reach of classical computers. However, today’s quantum computers are noisy, posing challenges to obtaining accurate results. Here, we explore the impact of noise on quantum computing, focusing on the challenges in sampling bit strings from noisy quantum computers and the implications for optimization and machine learning. We formally quantify the sampling overhead to extract good samples from noisy quantum computers and relate it to the layer fidelity, a metric to determine the performance of noisy quantum processors. Further, we show how this allows us to use the conditional value at risk of noisy samples to determine provable bounds on noise-free expectation values. We discuss how to leverage these bounds for different algorithms and demonstrate our findings through experiments on real quantum computers involving up to 127 qubits. The results show strong alignment with theoretical predictions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF RISK ANALYSIS TOOLKIT FOR PLANT RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION

This paper presents the development of methods and tools that are being designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules and optimal maintenance postures for plant components) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available component health and cost data. These methods include both data- and model-based optimization methods. Model-based optimization methods directly include reliability and cost models to determine an optimal plant operational strategy. We consider gradient-based and evolutionary (based on genetic algorithms) optimization methods. The second class of methods target more specific use cases (e.g., project schedule optimization) and are not based on reliability models directly, but they require specific component reliability and cost data. This class of methods is based on variants of the knapsack problem with an aim to determine an optimal project schedule that maximizes the overall NPV. This paper also presents multi-objective methods designed to identify an optimal maintenance posture based on a Pareto frontier analysis. Rather than dictating the “right” tradeoff (i.e., identify the absolute best posture), we show how it is possible to perform a trade space exploration approach (i.e., identify value and costs of several postures and let the analysis account for desired value and cost metrics). This is performed by identifying maintenance postures that maximize value (e.g., system availability) and minimize operational costs, i.e., the Pareto frontier in a value-cost trade space. For all these methods we present detailed applicative examples that show their validity from a decision-making perspective.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗