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NASA NTRS2011

Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multiagency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather modes. CCMC goal is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. The presentation will demonstrate the recent progress in CCMC metrics and validation activities.

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Development of the Transport Class Model (TCM) Aircraft Simulation From a Sub-Scale Generic Transport Model (GTM) Simulation

A six degree-of-freedom, flat-earth dynamics, non-linear, and non-proprietary aircraft simulation was developed that is representative of a generic mid-sized twin-jet transport aircraft. The simulation was developed from a non-proprietary, publicly available, subscale twin-jet transport aircraft simulation using scaling relationships and a modified aerodynamic database. The simulation has an extended aerodynamics database with aero data outside the normal transport-operating envelope (large angle-of-attack and sideslip values). The simulation has representative transport aircraft surface actuator models with variable rate-limits and generally fixed position limits. The simulation contains a generic 40,000 lb sea level thrust engine model. The engine model is a first order dynamic model with a variable time constant that changes according to simulation conditions. The simulation provides a means for interfacing a flight control system to use the simulation sensor variables and to command the surface actuators and throttle position of the engine model.

Hueschen, Richard M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Downscaling Soil Moisture in the Southern Great Plains Through a Calibrated Multifractal Model for Land Surface Modeling Applications

Accounting for small-scale spatial heterogeneity of soil moisture (theta) is required to enhance the predictive skill of land surface models. In this paper, we present the results of the development, calibration, and performance evaluation of a downscaling model based on multifractal theory using aircraft!based (800 m) theta estimates collected during the southern Great Plains experiment in 1997 (SGP97).We first demonstrate the presence of scale invariance and multifractality in theta fields of nine square domains of size 25.6 x 25.6 sq km, approximately a satellite footprint. Then, we estimate the downscaling model parameters and evaluate the model performance using a set of different calibration approaches. Results reveal that small-scale theta distributions are adequately reproduced across the entire region when coarse predictors include a dynamic component (i.e., the spatial mean soil moisture ) and a stationary contribution accounting for static features (i.e., topography, soil texture, vegetation). For wet conditions, we found similar multifractal properties of soil moisture across all domains, which we ascribe to the signature of rainfall spatial variability. For drier states, the theta fields in the northern domains are more intermittent than in southern domains, likely because of differences in the distribution of vegetation coverage. Through our analyses, we propose a regional downscaling relation for coarse, satellite-based soil moisture estimates, based on ancillary information (static and dynamic landscape features), which can be used in the study area to characterize statistical properties of small-scale theta distribution required by land surface models and data assimilation systems.

Mascaro, Giuseppe↗

NASA NTRS2012

Unsteady Aerodynamic Modeling in Roll for the NASA Generic Transport Model

Reducing the impact of loss-of-control conditions on commercial transport aircraft is a primary goal of the NASA Aviation Safety Program. One aspect in developing the supporting technologies is to improve the aerodynamic models that represent these adverse conditions. Aerodynamic models appropriate for loss of control conditions require a more general mathematical representation to predict nonlinear unsteady behaviors. In this paper, a more general mathematical model is proposed for the subscale NASA Generic Transport Model (GTM) that covers both low and high angles of attack. Particular attention is devoted to the stall region where full-scale transports have demonstrated a tendency for roll instability. The complete aerodynamic model was estimated from dynamic wind-tunnel data. Advanced computational methods are used to improve understanding and visualize the flow physics within the region where roll instability is a factor.

Murphy, Patrick C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Warm Season Deep Convective Initiation Modeling Experiment using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

The initiation of deep convection during the warm season is a forecast challenge in the relative high instability and low wind shear environment of the U.S. Deep South. Despite improved knowledge of the character of well known mesoscale features such as local sea-, bay- and land-breezes, observations show the evolution of these features fall well short in fully describing the location of first initiates. A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center was undertaken during the 2012 warm season to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System. The NASA products were: a 4-km Land Information System data, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with a 9 km outer grid spacing and a 3 km inner nest spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the forecast timing and location of the first initiates, with a focus on the impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

Medlin, Jeffrey M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation Historical and Projected Changes

We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multi-model mean deposition of 50 Tg(N) yr1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching 1300 mg(N) m2 yr1 averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 3050 larger than the values in any region currently (2000). The new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

Lamarque, J.-F.↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: A Case Study over the Continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models

Dynamical downscaling is being increasingly used for climate change studies, wherein the climates simulated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) for a historical and a future (projected) decade are used to drive a regional climate model (RCM) over a specific area. While previous studies have demonstrated that RCMs can add value to AOGCM-simulated climatologies over different world regions, it is unclear as to whether or not this translates to a better reproduction of the observed climate change therein. We address this issue over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models, a state-of-the-science AOGCM and RCM, respectively. As configured here, the RCM does not effect holistic improvement in the seasonally and regionally averaged surface air temperature or precipitation for the individual historical decades. Insofar as the climate change between the two decades is concerned, the RCM does improve upon the AOGCM when nudged in the domain proper, but only modestly so. Further, the analysis indicates that there is not a strong relationship between skill in capturing climatological means and skill in capturing climate change. Though additional research would be needed to demonstrate the robustness of this finding in AOGCM/RCM models generally, the evidence indicates that, for climate change studies, the most important factor is the skill of the driving global model itself, suggesting that highest priority should be given to improving the long-range climate skill of AOGCMs.

Racherla, P. N.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

Dengue fever is a mosquito‐borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground‐based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010‐2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

Morin, Cory↗

NASA NTRS2017

Model Validation for Propulsion - On the TFNS and LES Subgrid Models for a Bluff Body Stabilized Flame

With advances in computational power and availability of distributed computers, the use of even the most complex of turbulent chemical interaction models in combustors and coupled analysis of combustors and turbines is now possible and more and more affordable for realistic geometries. Recent more stringent emission standards have enticed the development of more fuel-efficient and low-emission combustion system for aircraft gas turbine applications. It is known that the NOx emissions tend to increase dramatically with increasing flame temperature. It is well known that the major difficulty, when modeling the turbulence-chemistry interaction, lies in the high non-linearity of the reaction rate expressed in terms of the temperature and species mass fractions. The transport filtered density function (FDF) model and the linear eddy model (LEM), which both use local instantaneous values of the temperature and mass fractions, have been shown to often provide more accurate results of turbulent combustion. In the present, the time-filtered Navier-Stokes (TFNS) approach capable of capturing unsteady flow structures important for turbulent mixing in the combustion chamber and two different subgrid models, LEM-like and EUPDF-like, capable of emulating the major processes occurring in the turbulence-chemistry interaction will be used to perform reacting flow simulations of a selected test case. The selected test case from the Volvo Validation Rig was documented by Sjunnesson.

bluff body↗

NASA NTRS2017

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

INTRODUCTION: The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers and the sporadic meteor background. It is commonly but incorrectly assumed that meteoroid impacts primarily occur during meteor showers; instead, the vast majority of hazardous meteoroids belong to the sporadic complex. Unlike meteor showers, which persist for a few hours to a few weeks, sporadic meteoroids impact the Earth's atmosphere and spacecraft throughout the year. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. The sporadic complex, despite its year-round activity, is not isotropic in its directionality. Instead, their apparent points of origin, or radiants, are organized into groups called "sources". The speed, directionality, and size distribution of these sporadic sources are modeled by the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM), which is currently in its second major release version (MEMR2) [Moorhead et al., 2015]. MEM provides the meteoroid flux relative to a user-provided spacecraft trajectory; it provides the total flux as well as the flux per angular bin, speed interval, and on specific surfaces (ram, wake, etc.). Because the sporadic complex dominates the meteoroid flux, MEM is the most appropriate model to use in spacecraft design. Although showers make up a small fraction of the meteoroid environment, they can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. Thus, it can be valuable to consider showers when assessing risks associated with vehicle operations that are brief in duration. To assist with such assessments, the MEO issues an annual forecast that reports meteor shower fluxes as a function of time and compares showers with the time-averaged total meteoroid flux. This permits missions to do quick assessments of the increase in risk posed by meteor showers.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: The Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers and the sporadic meteor background. It is commonly but incorrectly assumed that meteoroid impacts primarily occur during meteor showers; instead, the vast majority of hazardous meteoroids belong to the sporadic complex. Unlike meteor showers, which persist for a few hours to a few weeks, sporadic meteoroids impact the Earth's atmosphere and spacecraft throughout the year. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. The sporadic complex, despite its year-round activity, is not isotropic in its directionality. Instead, their apparent points of origin, or radiants, are organized into groups called "sources". The speed, directionality, and size distribution of these sporadic sources are modeled by the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM), which is currently in its second major release version (MEMR2) [Moorhead et al., 2015]. MEM provides the meteoroid flux relative to a user-provided spacecraft trajectory; it provides the total flux as well as the flux per angular bin, speed interval, and on specific surfaces (ram, wake, etc.). Because the sporadic complex dominates the meteoroid flux, MEM is the most appropriate model to use in spacecraft design. Although showers make up a small fraction of the meteoroid environment, they can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. Thus, it can be valuable to consider showers when assessing risks associated with vehicle operations that are brief in duration. To assist with such assessments, the MEO issues an annual forecast that reports meteor shower fluxes as a function of time and compares showers with the time-averaged total meteoroid flux. This permits missions to do quick assessments of the increase in risk posed by meteor showers. Section II describes MEM in more detail and describes our current efforts to improve its characteristics for a future release. Section III describes the annual shower forecast and highlights recent improvements made to its algorithm and inputs.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Implementation of the University of Miami Wave Model (UMWM) into the NASA/GMAO Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS)

Wind generated waves are integral element in air-sea interactions and affect exchange of momentum, heat, water, gases and production of marine aerosol. Motivated by the need to resolve the air-sea interface we have implemented the University of Miami Wave model (UMWM) into the NASA/GMAO Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS). The implementation of the wave model in GEOS aimed to facilitate coupling with the atmosphere and ocean model components with minimal changes to the existing system, while at the same time ensure correctness of the predicted wave energy spectrum and wave diagnostics. Here we describe the implementation of the GEOS/UMWM system and show results from model experiments and verifications. This work is a step toward development of a coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean GEOS system.

Darmenov, Anton↗

NASA NTRS2016

Creating Systems Engineering Products with Executable Models in a Model-Based Engineering Environment

Applying systems engineering across the life-cycle results in a number of products built from interdependent sources of information using different kinds of system level analysis. This paper focuses on leveraging the Executable System Engineering Method (ESEM) which automates requirements verification (e.g. power and mass budget margins and duration analysis of operational modes) using executable SysML models. The particular value proposition is to integrate requirements, and executable behavior and performance models for certain types of system level analysis. The models are created with modeling patterns that involve structural, behavioral and parametric diagrams, and are managed by an open source Model Based Engineering Environment (named OpenMBEE). This paper demonstrates how the ESEM is applied in conjunction with OpenMBEE to create key engineering products (e.g. operational concept document) for the Alignment and Phasing System (APS) within the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) project, which is under development by the TMT International Observatory (TIO).

MBSE↗

NASA NTRS2020

An Integrated Model of Models for Global Flood Alerting

A dramatic increase in frequency of minor to major flooding since 2000 has caused significant damage to infrastructure and economic losses across the world. To mitigate and recover from these losses, actions have been taken to build resilient communities and infrastructures. Situational awareness in near real-time is essential to ensure community resilience and enhance response and recovery efforts. Several hydrologic and hydraulic flood models are available at various spatial and temporal resolutions at regional to global scale. Given the global coverage of two operational flood models - GloFAS (Global Flood Awareness System) and GFMS (Global Flood Monitoring System), the first component of this project first focuses on integrating the outputs from these two models to classify flood severity and send alerts based on potential for impacts similar to the USGS PAGER (used for severity alerting and impact analysis for earthquakes). The second component of the project focuses on using flood outputs derived from earth observation data to validate, update and add additional exposure and impact products to flood alerts. The flood impacts and severity information will be disseminated as alerts and maps through the DisasterAWARE platform, operated by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), that provides global multi-hazard alerting and Situational Awareness information to the emergency management community and public. In this presentation, the following objectives will be covered: (i) the effective integration of the flood models, (ii) accuracy of the flood model outputs (flood extent and depth) for specific flood events both in the United States and globally in comparison with each other and earth observation data.

Glasscoe, Margaret↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Wall-Modeled LES Perspective for the High Lift Common Research Model Using LAVA

A new immersed boundary Wall-Modelled Large Eddy Simulation (WMLES) formulation is developed to study high-lift aerodynamics on the NASA High-Lift Common Research Model (HL-CRM). A sequence of Cartesian Octree grids with sizes ranging from 100 Million through 2.02 Billion grid points is utilized to systematically assess grid-sensitivity and convergence for the in-tunnel (QinetiQ) configuration of the model, and remarkable agreement between the immersed boundary and the curvilinear body-aligned WMLES formulations is reported on grids with comparable resolutions. In the free-air configuration of the model, consistent predictions between the Curvilinear Overset and the Cartesian Octree formulations are reported for angles of attack up to C(L,max) at a=19.57. However, some differences in the onset of stall are seen between the two methods for a>20°: while the curvilinear WMLES experiences wing-root separation with increasing angle of attack (Topology A), the Cartesian Octree formulation shows a different flow topology characterized by boundary layer weakness on the main element, emanating from the pylon-wing attachment (Topology B). In order to obtain further insight into the two-distinct topologies, carefully designed numerical experiments to isolate effects of the model standoff and the tunnel wall-boundary layers are conducted using the immersed boundary WMLES formulation. The increased incidence angle-of-attack on the inboard portion of the wing due to the standoff is shown to be sufficient for triggering a switch from Topology B to Topology A in Cartesian WMLES. The role of the floor boundary layer is further examined in detail by identification of additional corner-flow vorticity generated by the viscous juncture flow interactions between the floor boundary layer and the standoff leading to formation of a strong coherent and persistent vortex on the belly-side of the fuselage. The intensity of this vortex is shown to increase with the thickness of the floor boundary layer. A further increase in the incidence angle of attack near the leading-edge strake caused by the presence of this belly-side vortex is quantified for two-distinct floor boundary layers. Both of the floor boundary layers considered result in the onset of large scale wing-root separation at a=21.47in non-confined (free-air) configurations.

TTT↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Impact of Firn Models on Ultrawideband Brightness Temperatures in the Partially Coherent Model

The density profile of a polar ice sheet is an important parameter for the estimation of ice mass balance. Wave reflections caused by density variations are also a key uncertainty in the retrieval of ice sheet temperature profiles in Ultra-Wide band radiometry. In this paper, we examine different firn density profile models and analyze the subsurface reflections they cause using an analytical partially coherent approach. We also examine firn density profiles obtained from borehole measurements, from past UWBRAD modeling studies, from a community firn model, and from snow radar echo measurements. In previous studies, the ice sheet has been model as a 1D random medium with density variations in depth. However, horizontal density variations also exist, so that the ice sheet is a 3D random medium. Analyses using the partially coherent model show that in the presence of horizontal fluctuations, contributions from short scale variations vanish as the horizontal correlation length decreases due to the diffraction of waves.

Haokui Xu↗

NASA NTRS2021

Self-Consistent Implementation of a Zero-Equation Transport Model Into a Predictive Model for a Hall Effect Thruster

The performance of an axisymmetric multi-fluid Hall thruster code that incorporates a self-consistent, data-driven closure model for the anomalous electron transport is investigated. Five different operating conditions of the H9 magnetically shielded Hall thruster are simulated with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Hall2De. In order to capture the inherent uncertainty associated with the closure model, O(100) simulations are run for each condition, each of using a coefficient set sampled randomly from a probability distribution. The results of these simulations provide probabilistic predictions of thruster performance quantities including thrust, and discharge current, as well as several component efficiencies and centerline plasma properties. The model is found to yield converged solutions at all conditions, with large 10 kHzrange oscillations and performance trends with voltage and flow rate similar to experiment. The model under-predicts the thrust by 15-25% and over-predicts the discharge current by 20% on average compared to experiments at the same discharge voltage and mass flow rate. This performance discrepancy is due to lower beam utilization, mass utilization, and divergence efficiency than experiment, resulting from high Hall parameters in the acceleration region, which lead to a protracted ion acceleration region. The physical processes underlying this result are discussed in the context of future data-driven modeling efforts.

Jorns, Benjamin A.↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM): Community-Focused Collaborative Model Development Accelerating Research to Operations

The Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is a fast, 1-D radiative transfer model used in numerical weather prediction, calibration/validation, etc. across multiple federal agencies and universities. The key benefit of the CRTM is that it is a satellite simulator. It provides a highly accurate representation of satellite radiances by using the specific sensor response functions convolved with a line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM). CRTM covers the spectral ranges consistent with all present operational and most research satellites, from visible to microwave. The capability to simulate ultraviolet radiances and support space-based radar sensors is being added over the next two years in CRTM Version 3.0. In addition to simulated radiances, the CRTM also provides Jacobian outputs needed to interpret satellite observations for numerical weather prediction. The Jacobian estimates how changes in geophysical parameters affect simulated measurements from satellite sensors. Using the Jacobian in modeling and weather prediction improves the accuracy and efficiency of data analysis, leading to better weather predictions. The CRTM model's success and growth depend on community contributions and evaluation. To facilitate this, we have made the CRTM highly accessible through modular programming, clear documentation and tutorials, public domain licensing, unfettered public access via Github, and a clear path to operational implementation for innovative research. We encourage and welcome contributions from the community to help us continue to improve the CRTM.

Benjamin T Johnson↗