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At least 541 records · Page 30

Validation of CERES Flight Model 5 In-Orbit Calibrations Using Lunar Observations

Scientific studies require radiation fluxes over the Earth to be accurate within 1% for shortwave fluxes and 0.5% for outgoing longwave fluxes. The validation of in-orbit instrument performance requires both stability in calibration source and also calibration corrections to compensate for instrument changes. The Moon offers an external source whose signal variance is predictable and non-degrading. CERES detectors register the signal output from the entire face of the Moon. Lunar observations performed by CERES Flight Models (FM) 1 through 4 have been successful in assisting validation of radiances to the required accuracy. CERES Flight Model 5 (FM-5) is on Suomi/NPP spacecraft, orbiting since October 2011. This paper uses lunar measurements to validate detector output of FM-5. These measurements are adjusted to remove orbital effects due to variations in distance between Moon and Sun, distance between the satellite and the Moon and lunar phase angle. These effects create a total variation in lunar irradiance of 20% in the total channel and 8% in the shortwave channel. The change in orientation of the Moon as seen by the detector is called libration and causes variations of about 1% of the irradiance. A consistent dataset spanning at least 2 years in length is required to remove variations due to libration. The major uncertainties remaining in the measurements are assumed to be due to changes of the spectral responses of the channels due to degradation of optical surfaces in orbit. The results demonstrate that lunar observations can be used to validate FM-5 measurements.

Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System↗

Unprecedented Shifts in Hydrology Are Emerging Across California's Critical Basins: An Evaluation From 0.5 to 3.5°C

With advances in climate models and downscaling techniques, stakeholders anticipate high-resolution analysis to inform regional to local changes in water management. Here, we produce hydrologic projections from an ensemble of Earth System Models (ESMs) that were selected and downscaled to support California's 5th Climate Assessment. An ensemble of 19 ESMs was downscaled to a 3-km resolution across California using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach and subsequently run through two calibrated hydrology models. Although California has been extensively studied in the context of climate change, we provide the first evaluation of the warming thresholds at which hydroclimate metrics demonstrate statistically significant shifts. We show that present-day to near-term warming levels in Klamath and Northern Sierra Nevada basins, which serve as a critical source of water for California, show statistically significant decreases in snowfall and peak snowpack and associated decreases in summer snowmelt and runoff. More generally, shifts in these hydroclimate metrics occur for intermediate elevation basins ranging from 1,315 to 1,455 m (4,314.3–4,773.6 ft), while the warming level of emergence is delayed for lower and higher elevation basins. We also find that several basins already demonstrate significant increases in 5- to 100-year runoff intensities, primarily due to the increasing influence of precipitation falling as rain. Hydroclimate metrics with trends that demonstrate near-term warming levels of emergence are reflected in reanalysis-based observations, suggesting California is entering a fundamentally different hydroclimate regime. While this will likely stress California's water management, the research provided can support when to implement adaptation efforts.

Bass, B. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (Un↗

Modeling Boundary-Layer Transition in Subsonic Flow over a Swept Wing

Predicting the onset of boundary-layer transition is often more accurate using physics-based models that directly compute disturbance growth rather than phenomenological models often implemented into industrial CFD codes. The aim of this ongoing study is to calibrate linear, physics-based computations of transition in subsonic flows over swept wings against a large set of experimental data. Advancing the calibration of linear models of transition contributes to the CFD-Vision-2030 goal of automated boundary-layer transition prediction. This progress report uses the dual N-factor method to model transition over the swept NACA 64-2-015A wing. The flow conditions match selected test conditions from an extensive experimental dataset acquired from the NASA Ames 12-ft Pressure Tunnel. The OVERFLOW 2.4b flow solver is used to obtain laminar basic states based on an infinite-span assumption. Stability analyses are performed on 365 distinct configurations with linear stability theory (LST) and parabolized stability equations (PSE) from the Langley Stability and Transition Analysis Codes (LASTRAC), modeling the growth of Tollmien-Schlichting (TS) and stationary crossflow (SCF) disturbances. From a total of 67 data points for unswept, i.e., TS-dominant configurations, the critical N-factor based on PSE is found to be N_TS = 9. The SCF critical N-factor is found to be near 8 for the highly swept, SCF-dominant configurations. Dual N-factor curves for both LST and PSE computations demonstrate a high level of interaction between TS and SCF. It may be worthwhile to investigate an alternate metric to visualize maximal SCF amplification upstream of the transition location to account for the growth of SCF modes near the leading edge, which is not considered in the conventional applications of the dual N-factor criterion.

boundary-layer transition↗

Modeling Boundary-Layer Transition in Subsonic Flow over a Swept Wing

Predicting the onset of boundary-layer transition is often more accurate using physics-based models that directly compute disturbance growth rather than phenomenological models often implemented into industrial CFD codes. The aim of this ongoing study is to calibrate linear, physics-based computations of transition in subsonic flows over swept wings against a large set of experimental data. Advancing the calibration of linear models of transition contributes to the CFD-Vision-2030 goal of automated boundary-layer transition prediction. This progress report uses the dual N-factor method to model transition over the swept NACA 64-2-015A wing. The flow conditions match selected test conditions from an extensive experimental dataset acquired from the NASA Ames 12-ft Pressure Tunnel. The OVERFLOW 2.4b flow solver is used to obtain laminar basic states based on an infinite-span assumption. Stability analyses are performed on 365 distinct configurations with linear stability theory (LST) and parabolized stability equations (PSE) from the Langley Stability and Transition Analysis Codes (LASTRAC), modeling the growth of Tollmien-Schlichting (TS) and stationary crossflow (SCF) disturbances. From a total of 67 data points for unswept, i.e., TS-dominant configurations, the critical N-factor based on PSE is found to be N_TS = 9. The SCF critical N-factor is found to be near 8 for the highly swept, SCF-dominant configurations. Dual N-factor curves for both LST and PSE computations demonstrate a high level of interaction between TS and SCF. It may be worthwhile to investigate an alternate metric to visualize maximal SCF amplification upstream of the transition location to account for the growth of SCF modes near the leading edge, which is not considered in the conventional applications of the dual N-factor criterion.

computational modeling↗

Assessment of NASA's Physiographic and Meteorological Datasets as Input to HSPF and SWAT Hydrological Models

This paper documents the use of simulated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land use/land cover (MODIS-LULC), NASA-LIS generated precipitation and evapo-transpiration (ET), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) datasets (in conjunction with standard land use, topographical and meteorological datasets) as input to hydrological models routinely used by the watershed hydrology modeling community. The study is focused in coastal watersheds in the Mississippi Gulf Coast although one of the test cases focuses in an inland watershed located in northeastern State of Mississippi, USA. The decision support tools (DSTs) into which the NASA datasets were assimilated were the Soil Water & Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF). These DSTs are endorsed by several US government agencies (EPA, FEMA, USGS) for water resources management strategies. These models use physiographic and meteorological data extensively. Precipitation gages and USGS gage stations in the region were used to calibrate several HSPF and SWAT model applications. Land use and topographical datasets were swapped to assess model output sensitivities. NASA-LIS meteorological data were introduced in the calibrated model applications for simulation of watershed hydrology for a time period in which no weather data were available (1997-2006). The performance of the NASA datasets in the context of hydrological modeling was assessed through comparison of measured and model-simulated hydrographs. Overall, NASA datasets were as useful as standard land use, topographical , and meteorological datasets. Moreover, NASA datasets were used for performing analyses that the standard datasets could not made possible, e.g., introduction of land use dynamics into hydrological simulations

Alacron, Vladimir J.↗

Stellar models with microscopic diffusion and rotational mixing. 1: Application to the Sun

The Yale stellar evolution code has been modified to include the combined effects of diffusion and rotational mixing on H-1, H-4, and the trace elements He, Li-6, Li-7, and Be-9. The interaction between rotational mixing and diffusion is studied by calculating a number of calibrated solar models. The rotational mixing inhibits the diffusion in the outer parts of the models, leading to a decrease in the envelope diffusion by 25%-50%. Conversely, diffusion leads to gradients in mean molecular weight which can inhibit the rotational mixing. The degree to which gradients in mean molecular weight inhibit the rotational mixing is somewhat uncertain. A comparison with the observed solar oblateness suggests that gradients in the mean molecular weight play a smaller role in inhibiting the rotational mixing than previously believed. This is reinforced by the fact that the model with the standard value for the inhibiting effect of mean molecular weight on the rotational mixing depletes no Li on the main sequence. This is clear in contrast to the observations. A reduction in the inhibiting effect of mean molecular weight gradients by a factor of 10 loads to noticeable main-sequence Li depletion.

Chaboyer, Brian↗

Calibrating a finite-strain phase-field model of fracture for bonded granular materials with uncertainty quantification

To study the mechanical behavior of mock high explosives, an experimental and simulation program was developed to calibrate, with quantified uncertainty, a material model of the bonded granular material Idoxuridine and nitroplasticized Estane-5703. This paper reports on the efficacy of such a framework as a generalizable methodology for calibrating material models against experimental data with uncertainty quantification. Additionally, this paper studies the effect of two manufacturing temperatures and three initial granular configurations on the unconfined compressive behavior of the resulting bonded granular materials. In each of these cases, the same calibration framework was used; in that, hundreds of high-fidelity direct numerical simulations using a new, graphics processing unit-enabled, high-performance finite element method software, Ratel, were run to calibrate a finite-strain phase-field fracture model against experimental data. It was found that manufacturing temperature influenced the elastic response of the mock high explosives, with higher temperatures yielding a stiffer response. By contrast, it was found that the initial configuration of the grains had a negligible impact on the overall behavior of the mock high explosives though it remains possible that local damage accumulation within the specimens could be altered by the initial configurations. Overall, the calibration framework was successful at creating well-calibrated models, showing its usefulness as an engineering and scientific tool.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Mechanistic within-host mathematical model of inhalational anthrax

We present a mathematical model of the dynamics of Bacillus anthracis bacteria within the lymph nodes and blood of a host, following inhalation of an initial dose of spores. We also incorporate the dynamics of protective antigen, which is the binding component of the anthrax toxin produced by the bacteria. The model offers a mechanistic description of the early infection dynamics of inhalational anthrax, while its stochastic nature allows us to study the probabilities of different outcomes (for example, how likely it is that the infection will be cleared for a given inhaled dose of spores) in order to explain dose-response data for inhalational anthrax. The model is calibrated via a Bayesian approach, using in vivo data from New Zealand white rabbit and guinea pig infection studies, enabling within-host parameters to be estimated. We also leverage incubation-period data from the Sverdlovsk 1979 anthrax outbreak to show that the model can accurately describe human time-to-symptoms data under reasonable parameter regimes. Finally, we derive a simple approximate formula for the probability of symptom onset before time t, assuming that the number of inhaled spores has a Poisson distribution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field

In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.

Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗

Enceladus Plume Density Modeling and Reconstruction for Cassini Attitude Control System

In 2005, Cassini detected jets composed mostly of water, spouting from a set of nearly parallel rifts in the crust of Enceladus, an icy moon of Saturn. During an Enceladus flyby, either reaction wheels or attitude control thrusters on the Cassini spacecraft are used to overcome the external torque imparted on Cassini due to Enceladus plume or jets, as well as to slew the spacecraft in order to meet the pointing needs of the on-board science instruments. If the estimated imparted torque is larger than it can be controlled by the reaction wheel control system, thrusters are used to control the spacecraft. Having an engineering model that can predict and simulate the external torque imparted on Cassini spacecraft due to the plume density during all projected low-altitude Enceladus flybys is important. Equally important is being able to reconstruct the plume density after each flyby in order to calibrate the model. This paper describes an engineering model of the Enceladus plume density, as a function of the flyby altitude, developed for the Cassini Attitude and Articulation Control Subsystem, and novel methodologies that use guidance, navigation, and control data to estimate the external torque imparted on the spacecraft due to the Enceladus plume and jets. The plume density is determined accordingly. The methodologies described have already been used to reconstruct the plume density for three low-altitude Enceladus flybys of Cassini in 2008 and will continue to be used on all remaining low-altitude Enceladus flybys in Cassini's extended missions.

Sarani, Siamak↗

Informing electrification strategies of residential neighborhoods with urban building energy modeling

Electrifying end uses is a key strategy to reducing GHG emissions in buildings. However, it may increase peak electricity demand that triggers the need to upgrade the existing power distribution system, leading to delays in electrification and needs of significant investment. There is also concern that building electrification may cause an increase of energy costs, leading to further energy burden for low-income communities. This study uses the urban scale building modeling tool CityBES to assess the electrification impacts of more than 43,000 residential buildings in a neighborhood of Portland, Oregon, USA. Energy efficiency upgrades were investigated on their potential to mitigate the increase of peak electricity demand and energy burden. Simulation results from the calibrated EnergyPlus models show that electrification with heat pumps for space heating and cooling as well as for domestic water heating can reduce CO2e emissions by 38%, but increase peak electricity demand by about 9% from the baseline building stock. Combining electrification measures and energy efficiency upgrades can reduce CO2e emissions by 48% while reducing peak electricity demand by 6% and saving the median household energy costs by 28%. City and utility decision makers should consider integrating energy efficiency upgrades with electrification measures as an effective residential building electrification strategy, which significantly reduces carbon emissions, caps or even decreases peak demand while reducing energy burden of residents.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Project Assessment Report for Version 4 of the L4_SM Data Product

This report provides an assessment of Version 4 of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, released on 14 June 2018. The assessment includes comparisons of L4_SM soil moisture and temperature estimates with in situ measurements from core validation sites and sparse networks. The assessment further includes a global evaluation of the internal diagnostics from the ensemble-based data assimilation system that is used to generate the L4_SM product, including observation-minus-forecast (O-F) brightness temperature residuals and soil moisture analysis increments.Together, the core validation site comparisons and the statistics of the assimilation diagnostics areconsidered primary validation methodologies for the L4_SM product. Comparisons against in situ measurements from regional-scale sparse networks are considered a secondary validation methodology because such in situ measurements are subject to upscaling errors from the point-scale to the grid-cell scale of the data product.The Version 4 L4_SM product benefits from an improved land surface modeling system and from retrospective surface meteorological forcing data that are as consistent as possible with the present-day datain terms of their climatology. Specifically, the model changes include revised parameters and parameterizations for (i) the surface energy balance, (ii) recharge from below of the model's surface excess reservoir, and (iii) the snow depletion curve. Updated ancillary inputs include improved datasets for landcover, topography, and vegetation height. The Version 4 algorithm further includes a revised approach to precipitation corrections that improves the precipitation climatology in Africa and the high-latitudes. Moreover, for system calibration the model is forced retrospectively with MERRA-2 reanalysis data, which are more consistent with the near-real time GEOS forward processing (FP) data used during the SMAP period than the retrospective GEOS data that were available for previous L4_SM versions. An analysis of the time-average surface and root zone soil moisture shows that the global pattern ofarid and humid regions is captured by the Version 4 L4_SM estimates. Owing to the changes in the landsurface modeling system, surface soil moisture is typically drier by several volumetric percent in Version 4 compared to Version 3, whereas root zone soil moisture is wetter in Version 4 in some regions and drierin others. Because of these climatological differences, the Version 3 and Version 4 products should not be combined into a single dataset for use in applications.Results from the core validation site comparisons indicate that Version 4 of the L4_SM data product meets the self-imposed L4_SM accuracy requirement, which is formulated in terms of the RMSE after removal of the long-term mean difference (ubRMSE). The overall ubRMSE of the 3-hourly L4_SM dataat the 9 km scale is 0.039 m3 m-3 for surface soil moisture and 0.029 m3 m-3 for root zone soil moisture,below the 0.04 m3 m-3 requirement. The L4_SM estimates are an improvement over estimates from a model-only Nature Run version 7.2 (NRv7.2), which demonstrates the beneficial impact of the SMAP brightness temperature data. Overall, L4_SM surface and root zone soil moisture estimates are more skillful than NRv7.2 estimates, with statistically significant improvements at the 5% level for surface soil moisture R and anomaly R values. Results from comparisons of the L4_SM product to i

Reichle, Rolf H.↗

Regression Model Term Selection for the Analysis of Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data

The paper discusses the selection of regression model terms for the analysis of wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. Different function class combinations are presented that may be used to analyze calibration data using either a non-iterative or an iterative method. The role of the intercept term in a regression model of calibration data is reviewed. In addition, useful algorithms and metrics originating from linear algebra and statistics are recommended that will help an analyst (i) to identify and avoid both linear and near-linear dependencies between regression model terms and (ii) to make sure that the selected regression model of the calibration data uses only statistically significant terms. Three different tests are suggested that may be used to objectively assess the predictive capability of the final regression model of the calibration data. These tests use both the original data points and regression model independent confirmation points. Finally, data from a simplified manual calibration of the Ames MK40 balance is used to illustrate the application of some of the metrics and tests to a realistic calibration data set.

Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred↗

The Ultra-Soft X-ray Background: A Probe of the Hot Interstellar Medium and the Local Bubble - ADP-99

The Ultra-Soft X-ray Telescope (UXT) was a sounding rocket mission flown three times in 1984 - 1986. At the beginning of the project, the data existed solely in form of raw telemetry data stored on 9 track tapes. The primary goal of this proposal has been to extract event files from the raw telemetry stream and to create instrument response models and calibrated spectra from it. We have completed this project, and the data will soon be available to all via the HEASARC archive of high-energy data at Goddard Space Flight Center. We are in the process of combining the results with the ALEXIS and DXS observations of the Local Bubble in modelling the 72 eV iron line (recently observed by the X-ray Quantum Calorimeter) and the carbon emission lines that are uniquely visible in this dataset. Our results agree with the XQC observation which predicts a maximum emission in the 72 eV iron lines that is below the limit observable with UXT. However, this leaves an open question as to what lines were responsible for the observed Be-band emission. The answer to this question will likely require more observations of soft X-rays with the Chandra LETGS and new atomic data models of potentially emitting ions.

Smith, Randall↗

A New Blind Pointing Model Improves Large Reflector Antennas Precision Pointing at Ka-Band (32 GHz)

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)-Deep Space Network (DSN) subnet of 34-m Beam Waveguide (BWG) Antennas was recently upgraded with Ka-Band (32-GHz) frequency feeds for space research and communication. For normal telemetry tracking a Ka-Band monopulse system is used, which typically yields 1.6-mdeg mean radial error (MRE) pointing accuracy on the 34-m diameter antennas. However, for the monopulse to be able to acquire and lock, for special radio science applications where monopulse cannot be used, or as a back-up for the monopulse, high-precision open-loop blind pointing is required. This paper describes a new 4th order pointing model and calibration technique, which was developed and applied to the DSN 34-m BWG antennas yielding 1.8 to 3.0-mdeg MRE pointing accuracy and amplitude stability of 0.2 dB, at Ka-Band, and successfully used for the CASSINI spacecraft occultation experiment at Saturn and Titan. In addition, the new 4th order pointing model was used during a telemetry experiment at Ka-Band (32 GHz) utilizing the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) spacecraft while at a distance of 0.225 astronomical units (AU) from Earth and communicating with a DSN 34-m BWG antenna at a record high rate of 6-megabits per second (Mb/s).

DSN↗

A comparative analysis of numerical approaches for the description of gas flow in clay-based repository systems: From a laboratory to a large-scale gas injection test

There is nowadays a consensus among many countries that geological disposal is a favourable solution for the long-term management. Although different host formations and different barrier systems are under consideration around the world, clay-based materials form an important component for waste isolation in most national programmes. Hence, a good comprehension of the effect of gas flow on the hydro-mechanical behaviour of clay-based soils is essential, both at laboratory and field scale. Task B under the international cooperative project DECOVALEX-2023 has recently shown that, after some enhancement, models can be employed to reproduce laboratory scale tests, even with different sample geometries 37 . However, further work is required to understand whether they can be applied to simulate a large-scale experiment. Up-scaling of models for the advective transport of gas through clay-based low permeable material presents a number of problems related to the difficulty in obtaining consistent hydrogeological parameters and constitutive relationships at both laboratory and field scale. Based on a unique dataset from a large-scale gas injection test (Lasgit) performed at the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory (Sweden), Task B within DECOVALEX-2023 has explored the refinement of these numerical strategies applied to the simulation of gas flow. Work performed within the task reveals that codes do not need to be substantially modified from the laboratory models to reproduce full-scale tests: indeed, model parameters calibrated and validated at laboratory scale have been applied to predict field scale gas flow at Lasgit, including peak gas pressure and injected cumulative gas volume. By means of (1) the introduction of interfaces between blocks to reflect the experimental configuration and the (2) adjustment of some parameters (e.g., higher permeability), the updated models are able to represent most of the key features observed in the experimental data, even at a large scale.

Tamayo-Mas, E↗

An Improved Plastically Dilatant Unified Viscoplastic Constitutive Formulation for Multiscale Analysis of Polymer Matrix Composites Under High Strain Rate Loading

Polymer matrix composites are commonly used to fabricate energy-absorbing structures expected to experience impact loading. As such, a detailed understanding of the dynamic response of the constituent materials is necessary. Since the rate, temperature, and pressure dependence of carbon fiber reinforced polymer matrix composites are primarily manifestations of the rate, temperature, and pressure dependence of the polymer matrix, it is crucial that the constitutive behavior of the matrix be accurately characterized. In this work, an existing unified viscoplastic constitutive formulation is extended to ensure thermodynamic consistency and to more accurately account for the tension-compression asymmetry observed in the response of polymeric materials. A new plastic potential function is proposed, and elementary loading conditions are utilized to determine relations between model constants to ensure nonnegative plastic dissipation, a necessary thermodynamic requirement. Expressions for plastic Poisson’s ratios are derived and are bounded by enforcing nonnegative plastic dissipation. The model is calibrated against available experimental data from tests conducted over a range of strain rates, temperatures, and loading cases on a representative thermoset epoxy; good correlation between simulations and experimental data is obtained. Temperature rises due to the conversion of plastic work to heat are computed via the adiabatic heat energy equation. The viscoplastic polymer model is then used as a constitutive model in the generalized method of cells micromechanics theory to investigate the effects of matrix adiabatic heating on the high strain rate response of a unidirectional composite. The thermodynamic consistency of the model ensures plastic dissipation can only cause an increase in temperature. Simulation results indicate that significant thermal softening due to the conversion of plastic work to heat is observed in the composite for matrix dominated deformation modes.

Impact loading↗

Calibration of long wavelength Exotech model 20C spectroradiometer

A brief description of the Exotech model 20C field spectroradiometer, which measures the spectral radiance of a target in the wavelength ranges from 0.37 to 2.5 microns (short wavelength unit), 2.8 to 5.6 microns, and 7.0 to 14 microns (long wavelength unit) is given. It is a rugged field instrument which uses four circular-variable-filters to get wavelength scan. Wavelength calibration of the long wavelength unit was done by use of the strong, sharp, and accurately known absorption bands of polystyrene, atmospheric carbon dioxide, and methyl cyclohexane (liquid) in the IR wavelength region. The spectral radiance calibration was done by recording spectral scans of the hot and the cold blackbody targets and assuming that spectral radiance varies linearly with the signal.

Kumar, R.↗