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NASA NTRS1994

Composite Load Spectra for Select Space Propulsion Structural Components

Generic load models are described with multiple levels of progressive sophistication to simulate the composite (combined) load spectra (CLS) that are induced in space propulsion system components, representative of Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSME), such as transfer ducts, turbine blades and liquid oxygen (LOX) posts. These generic (coupled) models combine the deterministic models for composite load dynamic, acoustic, high-pressure and high rotational speed, etc., load simulation using statistically varying coefficients. These coefficients are then determined using advanced probabilistic simulation methods with and without strategically selected experimental data. The entire simulation process is included in a CLS computer code. Applications of the computer code to various components in conjunction with the PSAM (Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method) to perform probabilistic load evaluation and life prediction evaluations are also described to illustrate the effectiveness of the coupled model approach.

Ho, Hing W.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Multi-Physics Coupling to Model a RbCl-RbCl-Ga Target Stack

A computational model has been developed to simulate the performance of the Los Alamos Isotope Production Facility's (IPF) routine production target configuration, which consists of two Inconel-encapsulated RbCl salt targets and one niobium-encapsulated gallium target separated by water cooling channels. The methodology involves iteratively coupling particle transport and thermal hydraulic codes to determine the time dependent behavior of the target. Phase and density changes seen in targets are known to impact beam penetration and distribution. In addition, evidence of energy distributions seen in experimental radionuclide yield measurements at IPF do not match those seen in previous MCNP predictions. Density reduction as a result of heat deposition affects proton energy loss along the particle's track, impacting both radionuclide yields and target design. Accurate modeling of the thermal behavior of these multi-phase targets and the corresponding impact on beam behavior will significantly improve our understanding of incident and exit proton energy distributions and resulting radionuclide yields in downstream targets. Thermal hydraulic modeling, including computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and heat transfer, was performed with ANSYS CFX while particle transport was performed with the Monte Carlo N-Particle code (MCNP). (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

Analyses of quasi-isotropic composite plates under quasi-static point loads simulating low-velocity impact phenomena

In thin composite laminates, the first level of visible damage occurs in the back face and is called back face spalling. A plate-membrane coupling model, and a finite element model to analyze the large deformation behavior of eight-ply quasi-isotropic circular composite plates under impact type point loads are developed. The back face spalling phenomenon in thin composite plates is explained by using the plate-membrane coupling model and the finite element model in conjunction with the fracture mechanics principles. The experimental results verifying these models are presented. Several conclusions concerning the deformation behavior are reached and discussed in detail.

Kelkar, A. D.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Mathematical and Numerical Analyses of Peridynamics for Multiscale Materials Modeling

The rational design of materials, the development of accurate and efficient material simulation algorithms, and the determination of the response of materials to environments and loads occurring in practice all require an understanding of mechanics at disparate spatial and temporal scales. The project addresses mathematical and numerical analyses for material problems for which relevant scales range from those usually treated by molecular dynamics all the way up to those most often treated by classical elasticity. The prevalent approach towards developing a multiscale material model couples two or more well known models, e.g., molecular dynamics and classical elasticity, each of which is useful at a different scale, creating a multiscale multi-model. However, the challenges behind such a coupling are formidable and largely arise because the atomistic and continuum models employ nonlocal and local models of force, respectively. The project focuses on a multiscale analysis of the peridynamics materials model. Peridynamics can be used as a transition between molecular dynamics and classical elasticity so that the difficulties encountered when directly coupling those two models are mitigated. In addition, in some situations, peridynamics can be used all by itself as a material model that accurately and efficiently captures the behavior of materials over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Peridynamics is well suited to these purposes because it employs a nonlocal model of force, analogous to that of molecular dynamics; furthermore, at sufficiently large length scales and assuming smooth deformation, peridynamics can be approximated by classical elasticity. The project will extend the emerging mathematical and numerical analysis of peridynamics. One goal is to develop a peridynamics-enabled multiscale multi-model that potentially provides a new and more extensive mathematical basis for coupling classical elasticity and molecular dynamics, thus enabling next generation atomistic-to-continuum multiscale simulations. In addition, a rigorous studyof nite element discretizations of peridynamics will be considered. Using the fact that peridynamics is spatially derivative free, we will also characterize the space of admissible peridynamic solutions and carry out systematic analyses of the models, in particular rigorously showing how peridynamics encompasses fracture and other failure phenomena. Additional aspects of the project include the mathematical and numerical analysis of peridynamics applied to stochastic peridynamics models. In summary, the project will make feasible mathematically consistent multiscale models for the analysis and design of advanced materials.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impact of ocean model resolution on understanding the delayed warming of the Southern Ocean

Abstract Currently available historical climate change simulations indicate a relatively delayed Southern Ocean warming, particularly poleward of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) compared much of the rest of the globe. However, even this simulated delayed warming is inconsistent with observational estimates which show a cooling trend poleward of the ACC for the period 1979–2014. A fully coupled model run at two resolutions, i.e. ocean eddy parameterized and ocean eddy resolving, driven by historical and fixed CO2 concentration is used to investigate forced trends south of the ACC. We analyze the 1961–2005 Southern Ocean surface and upper ocean temperatures trends simulated by the model and observational estimates to understand the observed trends in the SO. At both resolutions, the models successfully reproduce the observed warming response for the northern flank of the ACC. The eddy resolving simulations, however, are able to reproduce the observed near Antarctic cooling in contrast to the eddy parameterized simulation which shows a warming trend. The cause of this inconsistency between the observations and the ocean eddy parameterized climate models is still a matter of debate, and we show here results that suggest resolved ocean meso-scale processes may be an integral part of capturing the observed trends in the Southern Ocean.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2018

Use of Physics Based Management Optimization for Groundwater Remedy Design - 18671

Numerical modeling coupled with formal mathematical optimization techniques was used to design a groundwater remedy strategy to address a carbon tetrachloride (CCl{sub 4}) plume covering several square miles. The optimization approach, methodology, and project costs are described. The site consists of a large grain elevator in Nebraska. CCl{sub 4} was used as a fumigant and subsequently impacted soils and groundwater. Remedy design focused on the more diffuse plume, which extended approximately 4.5 miles down gradient of the source area. An eleven-layer model was developed and calibrated to observed groundwater conditions. This model was linked with formal optimization techniques to identify the best design capable of meeting client specified requirements and well location limitations. The planned system included requirements on the location of extraction and injection wells, total system flow rate, number of management periods, and specific constraints limiting further plume expansion. A separate trinitrotoluene (TNT) contaminant plume from a third party was located vertically above the leading edge of the CCl{sub 4} plume within the same aquifer. A further constraint imposed was that the design could not affect or cause additional migration of the TNT plume. Optimal system design was determined using HydroGeoLogic's Physics Based Management Optimization (PBMO{sup TM}) system. Over 38,000 candidate solutions consisting of different combinations of pumping and injection wells locations and rates, were evaluated through flow modeling coupled with either particle tracking or fully convective-dispersive transport simulations to determine the optimal design. Planning for installation of the optimal design is underway. Simulations were completed on a distributed computing platform consisting of 3 Quad Core PCs. Flow and particle tracking simulations required less than 2 minutes per simulation. Coupled flow and transport simulation run times were generally between 30-40 minutes per simulation. The total costs for developing the groundwater flow model and completing the subsequent optimal design were approximately $400,000. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Forcing data (CESM2/CMIP6) for projection of drought impacts (2015-2100) at the K34 site in Manaus, Brazil

Historical and projected output data variables extracted and derived from Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) runs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive. CESM2 is a fully coupled Earth system model used in simulations of Earth's past, present, and future climates (Danabasoglu et al., 2020). Variables in this dataset are in six-hourly resolution, and include air temperature (both in K and ℃), specific humidity (kg kg-1), air pressure (Pa), relative humidity (%), and vapor pressure deficit (kPa). CESM2 was the only CMIP6 model that provided VPD at the high temporal resolution required for this analysis. Data are included in .csv files, and the text file CESM2-CMIP6_forcing_K34-Manaus_headers.txt provides descriptions of data file headers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Natural Ocean Carbon Cycle Sensitivity to Parameterizations of the Recycling in a Climate Model

Sensitivities of the oceanic biological pump within the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies ) climate modeling system are explored here. Results are presented from twin control simulations of the air-sea CO2 gas exchange using two different ocean models coupled to the same atmosphere. The two ocean models (Russell ocean model and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM) use different vertical coordinate systems, and therefore different representations of column physics. Both variants of the GISS climate model are coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model, NOBM), which computes prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2 and the deep ocean carbon transport and storage. In particular, the model differences due to remineralization rate changes are compared to differences attributed to physical processes modeled differently in the two ocean models such as ventilation, mixing, eddy stirring and vertical advection. GISSEH(GISSER) is found to underestimate mixed layer depth compared to observations by about 55% (10 %) in the Southern Ocean and overestimate it by about 17% (underestimate by 2%) in the northern high latitudes. Everywhere else in the global ocean, the two models underestimate the surface mixing by about 12-34 %, which prevents deep nutrients from reaching the surface and promoting primary production there. Consequently, carbon export is reduced because of reduced production at the surface. Furthermore, carbon export is particularly sensitive to remineralization rate changes in the frontal regions of the subtropical gyres and at the Equator and this sensitivity in the model is much higher than the sensitivity to physical processes such as vertical mixing, vertical advection and mesoscale eddy transport. At depth, GISSER, which has a significant warm bias, remineralizes nutrients and carbon faster thereby producing more nutrients and carbon at depth, which eventually resurfaces with the global thermohaline circulation especially in the Southern Ocean. Because of the reduced primary production and carbon export in GISSEH compared to GISSER, the biological pump efficiency, i.e., the ratio of primary production and carbon export at 75 m, is half in the GISSEH of that in GISSER, The Southern Ocean emerges as a key region where the CO2 flux is as sensitive to biological parameterizations as it is to physical parameterizations. The fidelity of ocean mixing in the Southern Ocean compared to observations is shown to be a good indicator of the magnitude of the biological pump efficiency regardless of physical model choice.

Antarctic Ocean↗

DOE OSTI2015

Patterns of Precipitation Change and Climatological Uncertainty among CMIP5 Models, with a Focus on the Midlatitude Pacific Storm Track

Projections of modeled precipitation ( P ) change in global warming scenarios demonstrate marked intermodel disagreement at regional scales. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and maximum covariance analysis (MCA) are used to diagnose spatial patterns of disagreement in the simulated climatology and end-of-century P changes in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive. The term principal uncertainty pattern (PUP) is used for any robust mode calculated when applying these techniques to a multimodel ensemble. For selected domains in the tropics, leading PUPs highlight features at the margins of convection zones and in the Pacific cold tongue. The midlatitude Pacific storm track is emphasized given its relevance to wintertime P projections over western North America. The first storm-track PUP identifies a sensitive region of disagreement in P increases over the eastern midlatitude Pacific where the storm track terminates, related to uncertainty in an eastward extension of the climatological jet. The second PUP portrays uncertainty in a zonally asymmetric meridional shift of storm-track P , related to uncertainty in the extent of a poleward jet shift in the western Pacific. Both of these modes appear to arise primarily from intermodel differences in the response to radiative forcing, distinct from sampling of internal variability. The leading storm-track PUPs for P and zonal wind change exhibit similarities to the leading uncertainty patterns for the historical climatology, indicating important and parallel sensitivities in the eastern Pacific storm-track terminus region. However, expansion coefficients for climatological uncertainties tend to be weakly correlated with those for end-of-century change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1972

Scattering of 42-MeV alpha particles from Cu-65

The extended particle-core coupling model was used to predict the properties of low-lying levels of Cu-65. A 42-MeV alpha particle cyclotron beam was used for the experiment. The experiment included magnetic analysis of the incident beam and particle detection by lithium-drifted silicon semiconductors. Angular distributions were measured for 10 to 50 degrees in the center of mass system. Data was reduced by fitting the peaks with a skewed Gaussian function using a least squares computer program with a linear background search. The energy calibration of each system was done by pulsar, and the excitation energies are accurate to + or - 25 keV. The simple weak coupling model cannot account for the experimentally observed quantities of the low-lying levels of Cu-65. The extended particle-core calculation showed that the coupling is not weak and that considerable configuration mixing of the low-lying states results.

Stewart, W. M.↗

DOE OSTI2013

Effective field theory of weakly coupled inflationary models

The application of Effective Field Theory (EFT) methods to inflation has taken a central role in our current understanding of the very early universe. The EFT perspective has been particularly useful in analyzing the self-interactions determining the evolution of co-moving curvature perturbations (Goldstone boson modes) and their influence on low-energy observables. However, the standard EFT formalism, to lowest order in spacetime differential operators, does not provide the most general parametrization of a theory that remains weakly coupled throughout the entire low-energy regime. Here we study the EFT formulation by including spacetime differential operators implying a scale dependence of the Goldstone boson self-interactions and its dispersion relation. These operators are shown to arise naturally from the low-energy interaction of the Goldstone boson with heavy fields that have been integrated out. We find that the EFT then stays weakly coupled all the way up to the cutoff scale at which ultraviolet degrees of freedom become operative. This opens up a regime of new physics where the dispersion relation is dominated by a quadratic dependence on the momentum ω ∼ p{sup 2}. In addition, provided that modes crossed the Hubble scale within this energy range, the predictions of inflationary observables — including non-Gaussian signatures — are significantly affected by the new scales characterizing it.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Modeling optical coupling of plasmons and inhomogeneously broadened emitters

Optically coupling quantum emitters to nanoparticles provides the foundation for many plasmonic applications. Including quantum mechanical effects within the calculations can be crucial for designing new devices, but classical approximations are sometimes sufficient. Comprehending how the classical and quantum mechanical descriptions of quantum emitters alter their calculated optical response will lead to a better understanding of how to design devices. In this work, we describe how the semiclassical Maxwell-Liouville method can be used to calculate the optical response from inhomogeneously broadened states. After describing the Maxwell-Liouville algorithm, we use the method to study the photon echoes from quantum dots and compare the results against analytical models. We then modify the quantum dot’s state distribution to match a PbS 850 nm quantum dot’s absorption spectra to see how the complete quasi-band structure affects their coupling to gold nanoislands. Finally, we compare the results with previously published work to demonstrate where the complete quantum dot description is necessary.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2014

Dynamics of Johari-Goldstein β relaxation and its universal relation to α relaxation in bulk metallic glasses by mechanical spectroscopy

The dynamics of the Johari–Goldstein (JG) β relaxation and the α relaxation in bulk metallic glasses (MGs) has been investigated by using mechanical spectroscopy combined with the Coupling Model. The β relaxations of MGs exhibit different behaviors such as peaks, humps, and excess wings due to the different fluctuations of the chemical interactions among the constituting atoms. A universal correlation between the β relaxation and the α relaxation is generally found by their activation energies and relaxation times as well as the non-exponentiality parameter of the α relaxation, which can be predicted quantitatively from the Coupling Model. Based on the quasi-point defects theory, a correlation factor χ shows a broad peak along with the β relaxation, suggesting that the concentration and the correlation degree of the string-like configurations involved in the β relaxation vary with increasing temperature, which challenges the previous view that the system is in an iso-configuration state below T{sub g} and may shed new light on the nature of the JG β relaxation in metallic glasses.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS2018

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

Sea surface salinity (SSS) observations from space allow us to investigate if improved estimates of near-surface density stratification and associated mixing can positively impact seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as dynamical ENSO forecasts. For the first part of the presentation, we utilize our intermediate-complexity coupled model. Baseline experiments assimilate satellite sea level (multi-satellite gridded AVISO, 2013), SST (Reynolds et al., 2004), and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations (GTSPP NODC, 2006). These baseline experiments are then compared with experiments that additionally assimilate Aquarius (V5.0 Lilly and Lagerloef, 2008) and SMAP (V4.0 Fore et al., 2016) SSS. Twelve-month forecasts are initialized for each month from September 2011 to September 2017. For initialization of the coupled forecast, the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool and density changes that lead to shallower mixed layer between 10S-5N. This pattern enhances air/sea interaction and amplifies the equatorial Kelvin wave signal. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation over most forecast lead times. We next assess how different satellite SSS products impact the validation of ENSO forecasts. SMAP V4 reduces the salty bias in the western Pacific and so is an improvement upon SMAP V2 and SMOS V2 (Boutin et al., 2017) has similar validation characteristics as a combination of Aquarius and SMAP V4. Next we shift to present results from the NASA GMAO Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S_v2.1) production coupled model (i.e. the same model that contributes ENSO forecasts to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble Experiment). From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP, allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast forecasts initialized with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts for the big 2015 El Nino event. We will present distinct experiments for the overlap period that include 1) freely evolving SSS (i.e. no satellite SSS as the production system), 2) Aquarius, and 3) SMAP initialization. Our results show that using Aquarius slightly improves validation of the reanalysis (including sea level and temperature statistics). Our production system without SSS assimilation generated too warm forecasts for the 2015 El Nino from March initial conditions. Incorporating Aquarius into initialization of the coupled system leads to a deeper, more realistic MLD that acts to damp the downwelling Kelvin signal and slightly cool NINO3.4 SST. With Aquarius the forecasts better match the observed amplitude of the 2015 event. On the other hand, SMAP V2 relaxation generally degrades validation statistics. At forecast initialization, SMAP is much too salty within 10o of the equator, leading to deeper MLD east of 165W. This deeper MLD leads to over-damping of the downwelling signal (i.e. relative upwelling), in turn leading to relatively too cool ENSO forecasts.

Hackert, E.↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity for Prediction of the Coupled Indo-Pacific System

We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as on dynamical ENSO forecasts. Our coupled model is composed of a primitive equation ocean model for the tropical Indo-Pacific region that is coupled with the global SPEEDY atmospheric model (Molteni, 2003). The Ensemble Reduced Order Kalman Filter is used to assimilate observations to constrain dynamics and thermodynamics for initialization of the coupled model. The baseline experiment assimilates satellite sea level, SST, and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations. This baseline is then compared with experiments that additionally assimilate Aquarius (version 4.0) and SMAP (version 2.0) SSS. Twelve-month forecasts are initialized for each month from Sep. 2011 to Dec. 2016. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation after 1 out to 12 month forecast lead times. For initialization of the coupled forecast, the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool and density changes that lead to shallower mixed layer between 10S-5N. SST differences at initialization force wide-spread downwelling favorable curl over most of the tropical Pacific. Over an average forecast, SST remains warmer with SSS assimilation at the eastern edge of the warm pool. This warm SST propagates into the eastern Pacific and drags westerly wind anomalies eastward into the NINO3.4 region. In addition, salting near the ITCZ leads to a deepening of the mixed layer and thermocline near 8N. These patterns together lead to a funneling effect that provides the background state to amplify equatorial Kelvin waves. We show that the downwelling Kelvin waves are amplified by assimilating satellite SSS and lead to significantly improved forecasts particularly for the 2015 El Nino.

SST↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity for Prediction of the Coupled Indo-Pacific System

We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as on dynamical ENSO forecasts. Our coupled model is composed of a primitive equation ocean model for the tropical Indo-Pacific region that is coupled with the global SPEEDY atmospheric model (Molteni, 2003). The Ensemble Reduced Order Kalman Filter is used to assimilate observations to constrain dynamics and thermodynamics for initialization of the coupled model. The baseline experiment assimilates satellite sea level, SST, and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations. This baseline is then compared with experiments that additionally assimilate Aquarius (version 4.0) and SMAP (version 2.0) SSS. Twelve-month forecasts are initialized for each month from Sep. 2011 to Dec. 2016. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves NINO 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation after 1 out to 12 month forecast lead times. For initialization of the coupled forecast, the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool and density changes that lead to shallower mixed layer between 10 degrees South latitude-5 degrees North latitude. SST differences at initialization force wide-spread downwelling favorable curl over most of the tropical Pacific. Over an average forecast, SST remains warmer with SSS assimilation at the eastern edge of the warm pool. This warm SST propagates into the eastern Pacific and drags westerly wind anomalies eastward into the NINO 3.4 region. In addition, salting near the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) leads to a deepening of the mixed layer and thermocline near 8 degrees North latitude. These patterns together lead to a funneling effect that provides the background state to amplify equatorial Kelvin waves. We show that the downwelling Kelvin waves are amplified by assimilating satellite SSS and lead to significantly improved forecasts particularly for the 2015 El Nino.

El Nino↗

DOE OSTI2025

Origin of Large Effective Phonon Magnetic Moments in Monolayer MoS 2

Recent helicity-resolved magneto-Raman spectroscopy measurement demonstrates large effective phonon magnetic moments of ~2.5 μ B in monolayer MoS 2 , highlighting resonant excitation of bright excitons as a feasible route to activate Γ-point circularly polarized phonons in transition metal dichalcogenides. However, a microscopic picture of this intriguing phenomenon remains lacking. In this work, we show that an orbital transition between the split conduction bands (Δ 0 = 4 meV) of MoS 2 couples to the doubly degenerate E" phonon mode (Ω 0 = 33 meV), forming two hybridized states. Our phononic and electronic Raman scattering measurements capture these two states: (i) one with predominantly phonon contribution in the helicity-switched channels and (ii) one with primarily orbital contribution in the helicity-conserved channels. An orbital-phonon coupling model successfully reproduces the large effective magnetic moments of the circularly polarized phonons and explains their thermodynamic properties. Strikingly, the Raman mode from the orbital transition is superimposed on a strong quasi-elastic scattering background, indicating the presence of spin fluctuations. As a result, the electrons excited to the conduction bands through the exciton exhibit paramagnetic behavior although MoS 2 is generally considered as a nonmagnetic material. By depositing nanometer-thickness nickel thin films on monolayer MoS 2 , we tune the electronic structure so that the A exciton perfectly overlaps with the 633 nm laser. The optimization of resonance excitation leads to pronounced tunability of the orbital-phonon hybridized states. Our results generalize the orbital-phonon coupling model of effective phonon magnetic moments to material systems beyond the paramagnets and magnets.

2D transition metal dichalcogenide↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Impact of Ocean Observations in Seasonal Climate Prediction

The ocean provides the most significant memory for the climate system. Hence, a critical element in climate forecasting with coupled models is the initialization of the ocean with states from an ocean data assimilation system. Remotely-sensed ocean surface fields (e.g., sea surface topography, SST, winds) are now available for extensive periods and have been used to constrain ocean models to provide a record of climate variations. Since the ocean is virtually opaque to electromagnetic radiation, the assimilation of these satellite data is essential to extracting the maximum information content. More recently, the Argo drifters have provided unprecedented sampling of the subsurface temperature and salinity. Although the duration of this observation set has been too short to provide solid statistical evidence of its impact, there are indications that Argo improves the forecast skill of coupled systems. This presentation will address the impact these different observations have had on seasonal climate predictions with the GMAO's coupled model.

Rienecker, Michele↗