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Atmospheric Research 2016 Technical Highlights

Atmospheric research in the Earth Sciences Division (610) consists of research and technology development programs dedicated to advancing knowledge and understanding of the atmosphere and its interaction with the climate of Earth. The Divisions goals are to improve understanding of the dynamics and physical properties of precipitation, clouds, and aerosols; atmospheric chemistry, including the role of natural and anthropogenic trace species on the ozone balance in the stratosphere and the troposphere; and radiative properties of Earth's atmosphere and the influence of solar variability on the Earth's climate. Major research activities are carried out in the Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Laboratory, the Climate and Radiation Laboratory, the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, and the Wallops Field Support Office. The overall scope of the research covers an end-to-end process, starting with the identification of scientific problems, leading to observation requirements for remote-sensing platforms, technology and retrieval algorithm development; followed by flight projects and satellite missions; and eventually, resulting in data processing, analyses of measurements, and dissemination from flight projects and missions. Instrument scientists conceive, design, develop, and implement ultraviolet, infrared, optical, radar, laser, and lidar technology to remotely sense the atmosphere. Members of the various laboratories conduct field measurements for satellite sensor calibration and data validation, and carry out numerous modeling activities. These modeling activities include climate model simulations, modeling the chemistry and transport of trace species on regional-to-global scales, cloud resolving models, and developing the next-generation Earth system models. Satellite missions, field campaigns, peer-reviewed publications, and successful proposals are essential at every stage of the research process to meeting our goals and maintaining leadership of the Earth Sciences Division in atmospheric science research. Figure 1.1 shows the 22-year record of peer-reviewed publications and proposals among the various laboratories.

Atmospheric↗

Coding Structures for Seated Row Simulation of an Active Controlled Vibration Isolation and Stabilization System for Astronaut’s Exercise Platform

Simulation for seated aerobic row exercise was a continued task to assist NASA in analyzing a one-dimensional vibration isolation and stabilization system for astronaut’s exercise platform. Feedback delay and signal noise were added to the simulation model. Simulation runs for this study were conducted in two software simulation tools, Trick and MBDyn, software simulation environments developed at the NASA Johnson Space Center. The exciter force in the simulation was calculated from motion capture of an exerciser during a seated aerobic row exercise. The simulation runs include passive control, active control using a Proportional, Integral, Derivative (PID) controller, and active control using a Piecewise Linear Integral Derivative (PWLID) controller. Output parameters include displacements of the exercise platform, the exerciser, and the counterweight; transmitted force to the wall of spacecraft; and actuator force to the platform. The simulation results showed excellent force reduction in the active controlled system compared to the passive controlled system, which resulted in less force reduction.

Simulation↗

Propulsion simulator for magnetically suspended wind tunnel models

Simulation of propulsion induced aerodynamic forces and moments, which arise as a result of interactions between propulsive jets and the free stream, is one of the most desired capabilities in magnetic suspension wind tunnels. The feasibility of generating exhaust jets of appropriate characteristics onboard magnetically suspended models was examined. Four concepts of remotely operated propulsion simulators was considered. Three conceptual designs involving conventional technologies such as compressed gas cylinders, liquid monopropellants, and solid propellants were developed. The fourth concept, a laser assisted thruster, which can potentially simulate both inlet and exhaust flows, was found to require very high power levels. The measurement of aerodynamic forces and/or moments were demonstrated, including the effects of exhaust jets, in MSBS wind tunnels. Two propulsion simulator models were developed, a small scale and a large scale unit, both using compressed, liquified CO2 as propellant. Results of the wind tunnel tests with the small scale simulator are discussed.

Joshi, P. B.↗

What if Things Get Worse? Really Grand Challenges for Modeling and Simulation in a Risky and Complex World or Modeling and Simulation for the "Greater Good"?

Today Modeling and Simulation-- ---as an important practice or industry or area of expertise ----- is at a complex crossroad - a sort of cyber-highway--where these complexities meet-technical, economic, environmental, geopolitical and cultural. They may converge or collide. Let's not kid ourselves. It is all too much for anyone person or organization Malcolm Gladwell said it. "We have constructed a world in which the potential for high tech catastrophe is embedded in the fabric of everyday life." We are surrounded by problems that scream at us from our television, Internet and social networks along with billboards and protest signs. We face not just high tech catastrophes but, also, landslides, earthquakes, tornados, floods and hurricanes and large-scale criminality. Evil, war, famine and pestilence have not gone away. It is all too much to think about. My friend, George Peabody, who taught me everything I know about power said that addressing such issues requires that we constantly build our network, information resources and the credibility and visibility of our work. That is how we will build the power of simulation so it can change the world --even maybe, save it. We need all the help we can get and give one another because our human early warning systems appear to be out of kilter. We seem to have trouble imagining how small failings can continue to lead to catastrophic disaster. Think about O-rings and blowout preventers. One is reminded of the old nursery rhyme, "For want of a nail, a shoe was lost! for want of a shoe the horse was lost! for want of a rider the battle was lost and so the kingdom fell." Although the investigation will take more time for real answers, it is worrisome that a rig worker reported to the BBC that-- weeks before the explosion of Deep Ocean Horizon. -he identified a leak in the oil rig's safety equipment -the Control Pod of the blowout preventer which has giant shears designed to cut and seal off the well's main pipe. With both electronics and hydraulics, these are effectively the brains of the blowout preventer. No one fixed it, he alleges, they just shut it down and relied on the other control pod -an act deemed unacceptable by petroleum expert, Tad Patzek, at the University of Texas. The US Congress has identified numerous other problems with the blowout preventer, including design problems and unexpected modifications.

Fifrey, Priscilla↗

Novel Approach to PV Inverter Modeling and Simulation Leveraging Experiments, Learning Based Modeling and Co-Simulation

Photovoltaic (PV) inverter manufacturers use custom, proprietary control approaches and topologies in their inverter design. The proprietary nature of these approaches makes it challenging to share electromagnetic transients (EMT) domain models for system studies. This research work presents an approach to develop EMT models from experimental data. We use novel approach in experimental design, high fidelity data collection, use of learning-based modeling, and co-simulation to reduce the time taken to develop an EMT model for an inverter under test (IUT). We used a 20 kW off-the-shelf grid following PV inverter and subjected the inverter to controlled tests. The tests include voltage and frequency step changes, as well as solar irradiance variations. The recorded high frequency data were used to train a neural network model representing the dynamic behavior of the IUT. The model was subsequently imported into an EMT tool using co-simulation techniques, and thus completing the modeling effort.

black box inverter modeling↗

Winter wheat: A model for the simulation of growth and yield in winter wheat

The basic ideas and constructs for a general physical/physiological process level winter wheat simulation model are documented. It is a materials balance model which calculates daily increments of photosynthate production and respiratory losses in the crop canopy. The partitioning of the resulting dry matter to the active growing tissues in the plant each day, transpiration and the uptake of nitrogen from the soil profile are simulated. It incorporates the RHIZOS model which simulates, in two dimensions, the movement of water, roots, and soluble nutrients through the soil profile. It records the time of initiation of each of the plant organs. These phenological events are calculated from temperature functions with delays resulting from physiological stress. Stress is defined mathematically as an imbalance in the metabolite supply; demand ratio. Physiological stress is also the basis for the calculation of rates of tiller and floret abortion. Thus, tillering and head differentiation are modeled as the resulants of the two processes, morphogenesis and abortion, which may be occurring simulaneously.

Baker, D. N.↗

Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) Plume Design Reference Mission (DRM) Inter-Satellite Link Modeling, Analysis and Simulation

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Radical Innovation Initiative (RI2) plans to focus intently on DSM capability advancements in FY22-24. A DSM mission involves multiple spacecraft, arranged in a constellation, to achieve one or more common goals via the use of inter-satellite links (ISL) between the satellites. Recently, the GSFC Internal Research & Development (IRAD) program established Enceladus as a design reference mission (DRM) for the current DSM effort to foster the conceptual development of communication architecture, requirements, and solutions for future DSM ISL, as well as being able to push other research areas of interest. Enceladus is an icy moon of the planet Saturn. The DRM Enceladus mission concept involves a constellation of 24 small satellites, orbiting Enceladus around 100 km altitude in 3 planes, as observing nodes for science measurement. The mission science data will be sent back to Earth through a relay orbiting Saturn, using the constellation’s inter-satellite links. A QualNet/STK simulation model of the Relay and constellation ISL optical and RF links is developed for the design and optimization of the link and orbital parameters, as well as the inter-networking protocols. Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) is utilized in the application layer modeling. This paper describes the plume DRM mission concept of an Enceladus constellation to relay science data to Earth and includes the proposed communication architecture and operation concepts. We present details of the QualNet/STK engineering model for this communication scenario to simulate the end-to-end data traffic through multiple layers (physical, data link, networking, transport and application). A link analysis for the constellation’s ISL, constellation to Relay and Direct to Earth (DTE) optical link is provided and discussed. The results of end-to-end traffic simulation for the data throughout/latency evaluation and assessment of the communication architecture are presented. The investigation of the concept of optical multiple access (OMA) for the Plume DRM is discussed. The modeling and simulation methodology developed in this paper is applicable to other DSMs in near Earth and deep space such as Earth-Moon L1/L2 and Lunar regions.

Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) Inter-satelli↗

Space Station Solar Dynamic Module modelling and simulation

Efforts to model and simulate the Solar Dynamic Power Module (SDPM) for the Space Station are discussed. The SDPM configuration is given and the SDPM subsytems are described, including the concentrator assembly, the fine pointing and tracking system, the power generation system, the heat rejection assembly, the electrical equipment, the interface structure and integration hardware, and the beta gimbal assembly. Performance requirements and design considerations are given. The development of models to simulate the SDPM is examined, noting research on models such as the Electric Power System Transient Analysis Model, the Electric Power System on Orbit Performance model, and a spatial flux distribution function.

Tylim, A.↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional scale model (with grid size of 20 km) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1 km grid size) are used to perform multi-day integration to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil-precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Yantz River during SCSMEX Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, sea surface temperature (SST) variations, and cloud processes are performed to understand the precipitation processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. These tests have indicated that the land surface model has a major impact on the circulation over the S. China Sea. Cloud processes can effect the precipitation pattern while SST variation can effect the precipitation amounts over both land and ocean. The exact location (region) of the flooding can be effected by the soil-rainfall feedback. The GCE-model results captured many observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the model simulated rainfall temporal variation compared quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall. The results show there are more latent heat fluxes prior to the onset of the monsoon. However, more rainfall was simulated after the onset of the monsoon. This modeling study indicates the latent heat fluxes (or evaporation) have more of an impact on precipitation processes and rainfall in the regional climate model simulations than in the cloud-resolving model simulations. Research is underway to determine if the difference in the grid sizes or the moist processes used in these two models is responsible for the differing influence of surface fluxes an precipitation processes.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Chemical Modeling for Studies of GeoTRACE Capabilities

Geostationary measurements of tropospheric pollutants with high spatial and temporal resolution will revolutionize the understanding and predictions of the chemically linked global pollutants aerosols and ozone. However, the capabilities of proposed geostationary instruments, particularly GeoTRACE, have not been thoroughly studied with model simulations. Such model simulations are important to answer the questions and allay the concerns that have been expressed in the atmospheric sciences community about the feasibility of such measurements. We proposed a suite of chemical transport model simulations using the EPA Models 3 chemical transport model, which obtains its meteorology from the MM-5 mesoscale model. The model output consists of gridded abundances of chemical pollutants and meteorological parameters every 30-60 minutes for cases that have occurred in the Eastern United States. This output was intended to be used to test the GeoTRACE capability to retrieve the tropospheric columns of these pollutants.

Source record↗

Development of an Airspace Simulation and Modeling Tool for Enhanced Spectrum Management

The emergence of new aerial vehicles into the National Airspace System creates an increased demand for aeronautical communications to support aviation operations. However, the issue of spectrum scarcity remains an ever-present concern, and the growing demand cannot be supported using existing spectrum allocation strategies. As a result, a new spectrum management approach is required, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is investigating advanced concepts to modernize the management and use of aviation spectrum by leveraging the latest advancements in wireless communications, big data and machine learning. This research proposes an autonomous spectrum allocation concept, which allocates communications resources, such as spectrum and power, based on the predicted communications and air traffic demands throughout the airspace, as opposed to the use of fixed allocations as is done today. This approach will result in improved spectrum utilization efficiency and enhanced airspace capacity. The autonomous spectrum allocation concept decomposes into three research areas: demand prediction, resource allocation, and use case evaluation. As part of the use case evaluation effort, a modeling and simulation capability is currently under development. This simulation capability includes the implementation of various features, including visualization of both live or virtually-generated airspace traffic, simulation scenario development, simulation management with data collection, and flight plan creation with corresponding trajectory generation. This modeling and simulation capability will continue to evolve as new and advanced airspace applications are introduced into existing and emerging operational environments.

Eric J. Knoblock↗

Applying NASA-STD-7009 Standard for Models and Simulations to Surrogate and Other Statistical Models

NASA-STD-7009A, Standard for Models and Simulations, contains a worthy and insightfully-crafted credibility assessment. That set of metrics is intended to accumulate and communicate information that can be critical for users and their customers in evaluating findings due to a model or simulation. Was the model designed for the present use? Is it validated in the domain it’s being applied to? And so on. The standard was originally focused on physics-based models, but it can be applied more generally. It can – and should – be applied to high-impact statistical models, including surrogate models based on larger models and sims and regression models based directly on data. A key issue with many of such models is their relative simplicity compared to most M&S despite their use in high-risk engineering decisions. This report will make a case for using this Standard for a wider class of models, and how it might actually add value in excess of its cost for not only stakeholders, but modelers themselves. A rough example showing compliance for a statistical model is included.

K L Johnson↗

Refined Use of Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth Snapshots to Constrain Biomass Burning Emissions in the GOCART Model

Simulations of biomass burning (BB) emissions in global chemistry and aerosol transport models depend on external inventories, which provide location and strength of burning aerosol sources. Our previous work (Petrenko et al., 2012) shows that satellite snapshots of aerosol optical depth (AOD) near the emitted smoke plume can be used to constrain model-simulated AOD, and effectively, the assumed source strength. We now refine the satellite-snapshot method and investigate applying simple multiplicative emission correction factors for the widely used Global Fire Emission Database version 3 (GFEDv3) emission inventory can achieve regional-scale consistency between MODIS AOD snapshots and the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. The model and satellite AOD are compared over a set of more than 900 BB cases observed by the MODIS instrument during the 2004, and 2006-2008 biomass burning seasons. The AOD comparison presented here shows that regional discrepancies between the model and satellite are diverse around the globe yet quite consistent within most ecosystems. Additional analysis of including small fire emission correction shows the complimentary nature of correcting for source strength and adding missing sources, and also indicates that in some regions other factors may be significant in explaining model-satellite discrepancies. This work sets the stage for a larger intercomparison within the Aerosol Inter-comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) multi-model biomass burning experiment. We discuss here some of the other possible factors affecting the remaining discrepancies between model simulations and observations, but await comparisons with other AeroCom models to draw further conclusions.

aerosol optical depth↗

Modeling and Simulation of Shuttle Launch and Range Operations

The simulation and modeling test bed is based on a mockup of a space flight operations control suitable to experiment physical, procedural, software, hardware and psychological aspects of space flight operations. The test bed consists of a weather expert system to advise on the effect of weather to the launch operations. It also simulates toxic gas dispersion model, impact of human health risk, debris dispersion model in 3D visualization. Since all modeling and simulation is based on the internet, it could reduce the cost of operations of launch and range safety by conducting extensive research before a particular launch. Each model has an independent decision making module to derive the best decision for launch.

Bardina, Jorge↗

Development and Utility of a Piloted Flight Simulator for Icing Effects Training

A piloted flight simulator called the Ice Contamination Effects Flight Training Device (ICEFTD), which uses low cost desktop components and a generic cockpit replication is being developed. The purpose of this device is to demonstrate the effectiveness of its use for training pilots to recognize and recover from aircraft handling anomalies that result from airframe ice formations. High-fidelity flight simulation models for various baseline (non-iced) and iced configurations were developed from wind tunnel tests of a subscale DeHavilland DHC-6 Twin Otter aircraft model. These simulation models were validated with flight test data from the NASA Twin Otter Icing Research Aircraft, which included the effects of ice on wing and tail stall characteristics. These simulation models are being implemented into an ICEFTD that will provide representative aircraft characteristics due to airframe icing. Scenario-based exercises are being constructed to give an operational-flavor to the simulation. Training pilots will learn to recognize iced aircraft characteristics from the baseline, and will practice and apply appropriate recovery procedures to a handling event.

Ratvasky, Thomas P.↗

Using Landsat to provide potato production estimates to Columbia Basin farmers and processors

A summary of project activities relative to the estimation of potato yields in the Columbia Basin is given. Oregon State University is using a two-pronged approach to yield estimation, one using simulation models and the other using purely empirical models. The simulation modeling approach has used satellite observations to determine key dates in the development of the crop for each field identified as potatoes. In particular, these include planting dates, emergence dates, and harvest dates. These critical dates are fed into simulation models of crop growth and development to derive yield forecasts. Two empirical modeling approaches are illustrated. One relates tuber yield to estimates of cumulative intercepted solar radiation; the other relates tuber yield to the integral under the GVI curve.

Source record↗

Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Simulated by AOMIP Models

We compare results from six AOMIP model simulations with estimates of sea ice thickness obtained from ICESat, moored and submarine-based upward looking sensors, airborne electromagnetic measurements and drill holes. Our goal is to find patterns of model performance to guide model improvement. The satellite data is pan-arctic from 2004-2008, ice-draft data is from moored instruments in Fram Strait, the Greenland Sea and the Beaufort Sea from 1992-2008 and from submarines from 1975-2000. The drill hole data are from the Laptev and East Siberian marginal seas from 1982-1986 and from coastal stations from 1998-2009. While there are important caveats when comparing modeled results with measurements from different platforms and time periods such as these, the models agree well with moored ULS data. In general, the AOMIP models underestimate the thickness of measured ice thicker than about 2 m and overestimate thickness of ice thinner than 2 m. The simulated results are poor over the fast ice and marginal seas of the Siberian shelves. Averaging over all observational data sets, the better correlations and smaller differences from observed thickness are from the ECCO2 and UW models.

Johnson, Mark↗