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DOE OSTI2021

Techno-economic Analysis of Novel PV Plant Designs for Extreme Cost Reductions

A techno-economic analysis is underway examining the cost and performance of future large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plant components, including bifacial modules, tandem modules, increased plant voltage architectures, and module-level power electronics. Integration of these components into PV plant designs is compared with current PV technologies based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Baseline models are developed and validated against recorded PV plant performance data. Expected cost and performance data of future PV technologies are incorporated into the baseline models. An evolutionary algorithm is utilized to optimize PV plant configuration, technology combination, and LCOE. Furthermore, this paper focuses on the bifacial module analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Machine Learning as a Tool to Explain Variance in Deployed Photovoltaic (PV) System Degradation

Degradation remains a large uncertainty in forecasting production for PV plants, creating significant risk for developers and financiers. This study aims to quantify the distribution and drivers of degradation across 10,000 PV systems deployed for distributed or utility generation by training a machine learning model to predict year-over-year degradation rates from metadata characteristics. A combination of K-Means clustering and random forest regressor were found to associate multiple metadata features as potential drivers of degradation, including module characteristics, system design, and climate features. From this, it is inferred that if machine learning is able to find complex patterns between metadata features and system performance loss, such methods can be employed to help developers and financiers make data-informed decisions when estimating long-term energy production forecasts in financial models.

Dunn, Jimmy C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Nonlinear Direct Power Controller for a Three-Phase Grid-Connected Inverter with Online Parameter Update for PV Application

This work proposes a nonlinear direct power controller for a three-phase grid-connected inverter for photovoltaic application. Grid-connected converters for solar applications require advanced control architectures to ensure optimal operation and extraction of maximum power from the photovoltaic arrays. Therefore, to ensure this, a nonlinear power controller architecture has been proposed to extract the maximum power from the solar arrays and to achieve the most optimal operation. To further improve the performance, a parameter update scheme has been utilized which is based on model reference adaptive system. The latter helps to accomplish not only good dynamic response but also excellent tracking performance. The overall control come estimation architecture is verified based on computer simulations via MATLAB/Simulink and PLECS domain and various important case study results are presented.

direct power control↗

DOE OSTI2021

Traveling Wave Relays for Distribution Feeder Protection with High Penetrations of Distributed Energy Resources

Increased penetration of power electronics interfaced Distributed Energy Resources (DER) like PV, electric vehicle and battery storage in the distribution system (both in numbers and sizes) may cause bi-directional power flows under normal operation. In addition, they contribute low fault current under short circuit conditions. These two changes can impact the proper operation of legacy protection systems. This can add additional challenges during weak grid and islanded operation. In this research, traveling wave (high frequency) signature based protection scheme is proposed for future distribution systems. Simulations are performed under different transient scenarios to provide insight into the high frequency signatures to show the traveling wave behavior. Finally, this paper discusses the importance of sensing and digital processing requirements for traveling-wave protection in distribution system.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Traveling Wave Relays for Distribution Feeder Protection with High Penetrations of Distributed Energy Resources: Preprint

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Traveling Wave Relays for Distribution Feeder Protection with High Penetrations of Distributed Energy Resources

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Recursive Blind Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation and Consumer Load for Microgrids

Existing forecasting frameworks that predict time-series photovoltaic (PV) generation and consumer load for micro-grids' operation and control assume near-continuous availability of real-time predictors from the field. The incoming data are used to periodically re-train the models and update forecast snapshots over a moving horizon window. However, such frameworks are not resilient to disruptions in data availability caused by losses in communications between the field sensors and data loggers. This paper bridges the shortcoming by leveraging a previously proposed forecasting framework that is resilient to abrupt changes in data quality caused by communication losses. Assuming no availability of real-time field system data, which is typical in extreme weather events such as hurricanes, the framework uses lightweight recursive time-series models to independently forecast solar irradiance, ambient temperature, PV power, and consumer load for three horizon windows: 24 hours, 12 hours, and 1 hour. Four types of ensemble-based regression trees-simple gradient boosted trees (GBR), GBR with an adaptive component (A-GBR), random forests (RF), and extra trees (ExTR)-are leveraged and their performances are compared against a simple historical weekly mean. Numerical results show that A-GBR performs better on average by 32% for 24-hour horizon and 39% for 12-hour horizon, whereas ExTR outdoes the other models on average by 10% for 1-hour horizon.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗

DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Regional PV Spinning Reserve Estimator with AGC Look-Ahead Windows

Curtailed PV generation is a zero-marginal cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. However, unlike the traditional spinning reserve providers, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, who have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate forecasts of the PV PHL are essential. A novel reference-control grouping based scaling method has been proposed by NREL to estimate the PV PHL in real-time. This work further enhances the methodology by: 1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; 2) considering look-ahead windows introduced by the computation and communication latencies; 3) applying the method to regional spinning reserve estimation. A significant performance improvement, over 99% of estimation error reduction, has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO and PV plant operators.

potential high limit↗

DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Regional PV Spinning Reserve Estimator with AGC Look-Ahead Windows: Preprint

Curtailed PV generation is a zero-marginal cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. However, unlike the traditional spinning reserve providers, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, who have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate forecasts of the PV PHL are essential. A novel reference-control grouping based scaling method has been proposed by NREL to estimate the PV PHL in real-time. This work further enhances the methodology by: 1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; 2) considering look-ahead windows introduced by the computation and communication latencies; 3) applying the method to regional spinning reserve estimation. A significant performance improvement, over 1.6% of estimation error reduction, has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO and PV plant operators.

potential high limit↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Hot‐Swappable, Fault‐Tolerant, Modular Power Converter System for Solar Photovoltaic Plants

The performance metrics of the state-of-the-art commercial solar inverters, such as system cost, operation and maintenance (O&M) cost, service life, reliability, maintainability, and power density are much lower than the target metrics needed to achieve SunShot’s 2030 levelized cost of energy (LCOE) goals. To overcome the shortcomings of the existing solar inverters, this project proposed a novel Hot-Swappable, Fault-Tolerant, Modular Power Converter (HSFT-MPC) concept for solar photovoltaic (PV) plants and proved the concept through the design, fabrication, and laboratory test validation of a single-phase HSFT-MPC prototype. The HSFT-MPC has the following distinct advantages over the state-of-the-art: 1) elimination of harmonic/ electromagnetic interference (EMI) filter in the inverter stage due to the novel topology, 2) lower system cost and higher power density due to the modular design, elimination of harmonic/EMI filter, and lower cooling requirement, 3) higher efficiency due to lower switching frequencies, 4) higher reliability and longer (50 years) service life due to simpler cooling and fault tolerance capability, 5) easier installation, lower O&M cost, and improved maintainability due to the modular design and hot-swappable power electronic building blocks (PEBBs), and 6) improved manufacturability due to the modular design. This project developed a single-phase HSFT-MPC prototype with 25kW nominal output power, 2.4kV, 60Hz nominal AC output, lower than 5% AC output voltage total harmonic distortion, over 5 kW/L inverter power density, and 99.4% inverter peak efficiency, being tolerant to failure of single and multiple PEBBs, and capable of hot swapping of the failed PEBB(s). The HSFT-MPC enables uninterruptable operation of the solar PV plant when failure of single or multiple PEBBs or PV modules occurs. Compared with the existing solar inverters in the market, the HSFT-MPC is expected to reduce the inverter failure-caused downtime and energy losses of solar PV plants by more than 60% and 50%, respectively. Project findings have been presented at major conferences in the field and published in peer-reviewed papers, which added new knowledge to the field of power electronics for solar PV systems. A minicourse on Solar PV Systems was developed for outreach activities. The minicourse will help attract young individuals to the renewable energy profession which has a significant talent shortage. The HSFT-MPC is expected to overcome all of the shortcomings of the state-of-the-art solar inverters in terms of cost, efficiency, service life, reliability, maintainability, and manufacturability targets needed to achieve SunShot’s 2030 LCOE goals. Therefore, the proposed HSFT-MPC concept has the great potential to disrupt the current solar inverter market. This project created a pathway towards industry adoption of the HSFT-MPC to help achieve 50-year service life solar PV systems. Since the solar PV plants using the HSFT-MPC will feature with higher reliability, longer service life, and easier maintenance, they are particularly useful for the rural areas with underserved populations that demand reliable and affordable clean electricity. The outcomes of the project have the strong potential to address national needs in the field of renewable energy to reduce CO 2 emissions from the electricity sector, reduce imports of energy from foreign sources, and improve energy security, efficiency, and sustainability. Since electricity is used in almost all of society’s sectors, the outcomes of the project will benefit various sectors of society and economy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

City-Wide Distributed Roof-Top Photovoltaic System Adoption Forecast, Grid Impact Simulation, & Neighborhood Microgrid Contribution Assessment

The adoption of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems grew significantly in recent years. Market projections anticipate future growth for both residential and commercial installations. To understand grid impacts associated with distributed PV, useful hosting capacity studies require accurate representations of the spatial distribution of PV adoptions. Prediction of PV locations and numbers depends on median income data, building use zoning maps, and permit records to understand existing trends and predict future adoption rates and locations throughout an entire city. Using the PV adoption data, advanced and realistic simulations were performed to capture the distributed PV impacts on the grid. Also, using graph theory community detection hundreds of neighborhood microgrids can be discovered for the entire city by identifying densely connected loads that are sparsely connected to other communities. Then, based on the PV adoption predictions, this work identified the contribution of PV within each of the newly discovered graph theory defined microgrid communities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Photovoltaic Mini-Module Soiling Stations: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

Photovoltaic (PV) panels can become soiled due to a variety of environmental factors. This soiling reduces the amount of light reaching the cells and thus their energy output. The ratio of actual output of the soiled device that of a clean device is known as the soiling ratio. The daily change in soiling ratio is known as the soiling rate. To study soiling for different glass coatings. Two soiling stations were fabricated. The stations were designed to monitor the short-circuit current of PV cells encapsulated with glass featuring different coatings and measure the daily soiling ratio with a pair of reference cells, one of which is automatically brushed daily. This work meets the need to understand how the glass coatings perform in additional environments. The stations are designed to quantify both the soiling ratio (the ratio between actual/expected photovoltaic panel power output) as well as differences in anti-soiling performance of different glass coatings. The design of the dirty/clean reference cell system is described by Toth et al. The soiling ratio is calculated by calculating the average irradiance measured within one hour of solar noon by each of the reference cells and then taking the ratio of these daily near-noon averages. The soiling ratio time series for the station deployed in Georgia is shown in Figure 1. This figure shows that the soiling ratio at the site has not yet fallen below 0.99, indicating that peak daily soiling losses have been below 1%. The site was chosen because it is thought to be affected by pollen soiling. With continued monitoring over the course of at least a full year, we expect to be able to observe and quantify pollen soiling events.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2000

Acceptance Testing of a Satellite SCADA Photovoltaic-Diesel Hybrid System

Satellite Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) of a Photovoltaic (PV)/diesel hybrid system was tested using NASA's Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) and Ultra Small Aperture Terminal (USAT) ground stations. The setup consisted of a custom-designed PV/diesel hybrid system, located at the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC), which was controlled and monitored at a "remote" hub via Ka-band satellite link connecting two 1/4 Watt USATs in a SCADA arrangement. The robustness of the communications link was tested for remote monitoring of the health and performance of a PV/diesel hybrid system, and for investigating load control and battery charging strategies to maximize battery capacity and lifetime, and minimize loss of critical load probability. Baseline hardware performance test results demonstrated that continuous two-second data transfers can be accomplished under clear sky conditions with an error rate of less than 1%. The delay introduced by the satellite (1/4 sec) was transparent to synchronization of satellite modem as well as to the PV/diesel-hybrid computer. End-to-end communications link recovery times were less than 36 seconds for loss of power and less than one second for loss of link. The system recovered by resuming operation without any manual intervention, which is important since the 4 dB margin is not sufficient to prevent loss of the satellite link during moderate to heavy rain. Hybrid operations during loss of communications link continued seamlessly but real-time monitoring was interrupted. For this sub-tropical region, the estimated amount of time that the signal fade will exceed the 4 dB margin is about 10%. These results suggest that data rates of 4800 bps and a link margin of 4 dB with a 1/4 Watt transmitter are sufficient for end-to-end operation in this SCADA application.

Kalu, A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cost Analysis of Heavy-Duty Vehicle Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Stationary Power Plants

Heavy-duty PEM fuel cells could be a low-cost, low emission alternative to combustion turbines for re-electrifying hydrogen if used as part of a long duration grid energy storage systems. Many studies expect heavy duty PEM fuel cell production costs to reduce as manufacturing volumes ramp up and their expected durability of 25,000-30,000 hours aligns well with a 30-year life for hydrogen seasonal energy storage plants that would likely operate less than 10% of the year. The labor, material, and equipment costs associated with installing PEM fuel cells and their required balance of plant for stationary applications have not been thoroughly explored, however. This study performs a detailed design and cost analysis of a 100 MW stationary PEM fuel cell power plant, capturing costs such as cooling, power electronics, pipes, valves, fittings, cabling, conduit, concrete foundations, buildings, and land. It employs methods consistent with NLR's solar PV benchmarking cost analysis and annual technology baseline to derive the total installed costs of stationary PEM fuel cell plants that utilize heavy duty PEM fuel cells.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

CSP Plant Optimization Study for the California Power Market (“CalCSP”) (Final Technical Report)

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) with thermal energy storage offers a unique and strategic opportunity to support California’s clean energy transition. Unlike photovoltaic (PV) systems, CSP with thermal storage can generate electricity after sunset and during periods of high demand, making it a valuable complement to intermittent renewable resources. CSP also provides synchronous, inertia-contributing generation, long-duration storage, and flexible dispatch—capabilities increasingly important as thermal plants retire. This report summarizes the findings of the CSP Plant Optimization Study for the California Power Market or “CalCSP study,” which evaluated the technical, economic, environmental, and policy factors that influence the deployment of CSP technologies in California. The CalCSP study was conducted to assess how CSP can contribute to California’s long-term decarbonization goals while enhancing grid reliability, supporting local economic development, and making efficient use of land and transmission resources. It draws on detailed modeling of CSP performance and costs, site suitability analysis, policy reviews, and stakeholder engagement across utilities, regulators, developers, and community organizations. The analysis focuses on mature molten-salt tower technology and incorporates lessons learned from the global CSP fleet, distinguishing today’s CSP from earlier first-of-a-kind projects in the U.S. The findings support a more prominent role for CSP in California’s evolving clean energy landscape. With strategic planning, targeted policy support, and continued cost improvements, CSP can complement PV and batteries to deliver reliable, around-the-clock clean electricity—especially in areas with high solar resource and constrained grid capacity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ice storage model-predictive control in an office building with PV: scenario, error and sensitivity analysis

Thermal energy storage (TES) can enable more building-sited renewable electricity generation and lower utility bill costs for buildings owners and occupants, especially when there are high demand and variable time-of-use (TOU) charges. A model predictive control (MPC) strategy can offer additional savings over a schedule-based control with added complexity and reliance on forecasts. Here, this study examines savings for medium office buildings with chiller plants in three locations with building-installed solar photovoltaics (PV) to understand the impact of MPC. Control setpoints are fixed by a schedule-based control or optimized by nonlinear MPC. These control setpoints are actuated within EnergyPlus building models to simulate the utility cost of the chiller plant. NLP solutions can be unstable or unrealistic, but our results show that by regularizing the NLP, the solutions can be reasonably followed by the building model. MPC models make simplifications that lead to errors once the controller is participating in and changing the operation of the building. These errors average 9 % across the cases, showing that the most important parts of the system are represented. The no-thermal load costs are computed to show that the optimization can in some cases achieve both the minimum TOU and minimum monthly demand costs by demand management while reducing TOU energy costs by energy arbitrage. The MPC saves 35–66 % in the annual chiller plant operating costs, which is an additional savings above the schedule by 1–33 %. PV and TES are complementary and mostly independent, but a load with PV often results in better performance for the schedule. Our case study and sensitivity analysis show the importance of modeling and optimization for complex rates, but also the circumstances wherein a simpler strategy achieves the same performance with less potential for error.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1987

Performance characteristics of a combination solar photovoltaic heat engine energy converter

A combination solar photovoltaic heat engine converter is proposed. Such a system is suitable for either terrestrial or space power applications. The combination system has a higher efficiency than either the photovoltaic array or the heat engine alone can attain. Advantages in concentrator and radiator area and receiver mass of the photovoltaic heat engine system over a heat-engine-only system are estimated. A mass and area comparison between the proposed space station organic Rankine power system and a combination PV-heat engine system is made. The critical problem for the proposed converter is the necessity for high temperature photovoltaic array operation. Estimates of the required photovoltaic temperature are presented.

Chubb, Donald L.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Performance characteristics of a combination solar photovoltaic heat engine energy converter

Chubb, Donald L.↗