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At least 541 records · Page 30

Advancing uncertainty characterization for understanding projected water scarcity in multi-sector, multi-actor river basins across scales.

Invited Talk at AGU Fall Meeting 2023 Modeling how human institutions and infrastructure interact with the water cycle is essential to better understand the vulnerability, and resilience of water resources systems from the local to the global scale. This is especially true when investigating multi-sector, multi-actor responses to the effects of long-term changes and short-term shocks. It is also well recognized that uncertainty present throughout the modeling cycle (e.g., in data, functional relations, and model coupling approaches) limits our ability to trace the interactive dynamics of human-water systems, as well as to quantify their implications for management and planning. Systems with large numbers of diverse stakeholders further compound this challenge, as uncertain drivers and complex dynamics might have very disparate effects on water users. The work presented is conducted through the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Science Focus Area, which explores how human and natural systems co-evolve in response to change. Through this multi-year effort, we have developed exploratory modeling methods to better characterize how the uncertain human and natural drivers of water scarcity yield consequential vulnerabilities in institutionally complex, multi-sectoral systems. This talk will specifically present on a series of uncertainty characterization experiments performed in the Upper Colorado River Basin, a sub-basin of the Colorado with thousands of water users. These complementary and systematic experiments are aimed at understanding: How are various uncertain stressors (e.g., climate change, demand growth) affecting the diverse water users of this basin in terms of water shortage? What are the key drivers of this shortage for each user? Methods and results from this work are used to address additional questions on the ability of adaptation to modulate the effects of these uncertain drivers, and on their compounding effects across spatial scales and through sectoral interactions.

Hadjimichael, Antonia↗

The impact of human expert visual inspection on the discovery of strong gravitational lenses

We investigate the ability of human ‘expert’ classifiers to identify strong gravitational lens candidates in Dark Energy Survey like imaging. We recruited a total of 55 people that completed more than 25 percent of the project. During the classification task, we present to the participants 1489 images. The sample contains a variety of data including lens simulations, real lenses, non-lens examples, and unlabelled data. We find that experts are extremely good at finding bright, well-resolved Einstein rings, while arcs with g-band signal to noise less than ~25 or Einstein radii less than ~1.2 times the seeing are rarely recovered. Very few non-lenses are scored highly. There is substantial variation in the performance of individual classifiers, but they do not appear to depend on the classifier’s experience, confidence or academic position. These variations can be mitigated with a team of 6 or more independent classifiers. Our results give confidence that humans are a reliable pruning step for lens candidates, providing pure and quantifiably complete samples for follow-up studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A stretchable and strain-unperturbed pressure sensor for motion interference–free tactile monitoring on skins

A stretchable pressure sensor is a necessary tool for perceiving physical interactions that take place on soft/deformable skins present in human bodies, prosthetic limbs, or soft robots. However, all existing types of stretchable pressure sensors have an inherent limitation, which is the interference of stretching with pressure sensing accuracy. Here, we present a design for a highly stretchable and highly sensitive pressure sensor that can provide unaltered sensing performance under stretching, which is realized through the synergistic creations of an ionic capacitive sensing mechanism and a mechanically hierarchical microstructure. Via this optimized structure, our sensor exhibits 98% strain insensitivity up to 50% strain and a low pressure detection limit of 0.2 Pa. With the capability to provide all the desired characteristics for quantitative pressure sensing on a deformable surface, this sensor has been used to realize the accurate sensation of physical interactions on human or soft robotic skin.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Systematic benchmarking demonstrates large language models have not reached the diagnostic accuracy of traditional rare-disease decision support tools

Large language models (LLMs) show promise in supporting differential diagnosis, but their performance is challenging to evaluate due to the unstructured nature of their responses, and their accuracy compared to existing diagnostic tools is not well characterized. To assess the current capabilities of LLMs to diagnose genetic diseases, we benchmarked these models on 5213 previously published case reports using the Phenopacket Schema, the Human Phenotype Ontology and Mondo disease ontology. Prompts generated from each phenopacket were sent to seven LLMs, including four generalist models and three LLMs specialized for medical applications. The same phenopackets were used as input to a widely used diagnostic tool, Exomiser, in phenotype-only mode. The best LLM ranked the correct diagnosis first in 23.6% of cases, whereas Exomiser did so in 35.5% of cases. While the performance of LLMs for supporting differential diagnosis has been improving, it has not reached the level of commonly used traditional bioinformatics tools. Future research is needed to determine the best approach to incorporate LLMs into diagnostic pipelines.

Reese, Justin T. [Lawrence Berkeley National Labor↗

Targeting tissues via dynamic human systems modeling in generative design

Drug discovery is a complex, costly process with high failure rates. A successful drug should bind to a target, be deliverable to an intended site of activity, and promote a desired pharmacological effect without causing toxicity. Typically, these factors are evaluated in series over the course of a pipeline where the number of candidates is sequentially whittled down from a very large initial pool. One promise of AI-driven discovery is the opportunity to evaluate multiple facets of drug performance in parallel. However, despite ML-driven advancements, current models for pharmacological property prediction are exclusively trained to predict molecular properties, ignoring important, dynamic biodistribution and bioactivity effects. Here, we present our progress towards incorporating quantitative systems physiology models into an AI-enabled drug design and molecular generation pipeline. Within a genetic algorithm, we include human-relevant physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. These PBPK models leverage properties that are predicted by a fine-tuned molecular language model. Together, these models will aid in capturing the mapping between molecules and therapeutic outcomes that is necessary to accelerate the drug discovery process.

Fox, Zach↗

Deciphering the source of primary biological aerosol particles: a pollen case study

Primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) are microscopic solids suspended in the atmosphere emitted by biological systems and play critical roles in the atmosphere and at the atmosphere-biosphere interface, impacting human health, climate, and the ecosystem function. Understanding the sources of PBAPs is necessary to decipher the mechanistic interactions between aerosols, climate, and distinct ecosystem components. However, the detection of specific PBAPs in complex ambient aerosol samples is challenging. We performed metabolomics analyses of pollen from three pollinating tree species and ambient samples collected during the peak pollination period of each species. Random Forest and sPLS-DA machine learning methods were employed to evaluate whether metabolic signatures of ambient samples can reveal the source of the main pollen particles present in the atmosphere. Our results suggest that atmospheric eco-metabolomics techniques combined with sophisticated statistical methods can decipher the origin of abundant PBAPs from complex ambient samples. Developing complete libraries containing high-resolution metabolomic fingerprints of the major PBAPs present in the atmosphere would significantly advance future research to accurately understand the role of PBAPs in the atmosphere, ecosystems and human health.

Rivas-Ubach, Albert↗

Human-in-the-Loop Motion Control of a Two-DOF Hydraulic Backhoe Powered by the Hybrid Hydraulic Electric Architecture (HHEA)

Abstract The Hybrid Hydraulic-Electric Architecture (HHEA) combines the respective power density and control advantages of hydraulic and electric actuation to save energy for off-road vehicles. It uses a set of selectable common pressure rails to transmit the majority of power and electric actuation to modulate that power. As it is critical that off-road vehicles can perform tasks dexterously and exactly as commanded by the operator, the switchings between discrete pressure rails pose a potential challenge for smooth and precise motion. A control strategy consisting of a backstepping nominal control and least norm transition control has previously been developed to address this issue. It has been tested on 1 degree of freedom (DOF) testbeds where known trajectories were able to be tracked precisely. This paper presents the implementation of the HHEA motion control strategy on a 2-DOF backhoe operated by a human operator via a 2-DOF joystick. Unlike previous studies, the duty cycle is unknown beforehand and the decision to change pressure rails is taken in real-time. The efficacy of the motion control strategy has been validated experimentally. Several strategies to improve the user interface: control in workspace coordinates, pressure feedback, and velocity field-based task specification, have also been implemented and demonstrated to make operating the multiple DOF, HHEA actuated machine more intuitive to novice operators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Thermoelectric air conditioning undergarment for personal thermal management and HVAC energy saving

Personal thermal management systems (PTMS) are highly desirable for improving individual thermal comfort and reducing indoor HVAC energy consumption. Although there have been many attempts in developing PTMS, existing PTMS are generally bulky, heavy or immobile. Besides, previous analysis on additional personal cooling and heating power required for maintaining thermal comfort in changing environments did not consider the individual difference in metabolism and the variability of comfort skin temperature with environmental conditions. In this paper, we report on the development of a novel lightweight (<1 kg) thermoelectric air conditioning undergarment system with a preferred design of branching tubing network (branching angle of 60° and diameter ratio of 0.782) for air distribution. Through thermal manikin and human subject tests, we demonstrated that the novel system is capable of providing a maximum of 15.5 W of personal cooling and 18.1 W personal heating with a coefficient of performance (COP) greater than 0.4, which is sufficient to the expansion of the indoor set-points by at least 2.2 °C (4 °F) on both sides without compromising thermal comfort and the potential saving of about 15% HVAC energy. Furthermore, our study improved the understanding of the required additional personal cooling and heating power for changing environmental conditions, which are essential guidelines for the further development of PTMS.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics for activity sequences

Residential electricity demand at granular scales is driven by what people do and for how long. Accurately forecasting this demand for applications like microgrid management and demand response therefore requires generative models for activities that can produce realistic daily activity sequences, capturing both the timing and duration of human behavior. This paper develops a generative model of human activity sequences using nationally representative time-use diaries at a 10-min resolution. We use this model to quantify which demographic factors are most critical for improving predictive performance. We propose a hierarchical semi-Markov framework that addresses two key modeling challenges. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov router learns the patterns of “which activity comes next.” Second, a semi-Markov hazard component explicitly models activity durations, capturing “how long” activities realistically last. To ensure statistical stability when data are sparse, the model pools information across related demographic groups and time blocks. The entire framework is trained and evaluated using survey design weights to ensure our findings are representative of the U.S. population. On a held-out test set, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling durations with the hazard component provides a substantial and statistically significant improvement over purely Markovian models. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of demographic factors: Sex, Day-Type, and Household Size provide the largest predictive gains, while Region and Season, though important for energy calculations, contribute little to predicting the activity sequence itself. The result is an interpretable and robust generator of synthetic activity traces, providing a high-fidelity foundation for downstream energy systems modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Deep-Learning-Derived Evaluation Metrics Enable Effective Benchmarking of Computational Tools for Phosphopeptide Identification

Tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS)-based phosphoproteomics is a powerful technology for global phosphorylation analysis. However, applying four computational pipelines to a typical mass spectrometry (MS)-based phosphoproteomic dataset from a human cancer study, we observed a large discrepancy among the reported phosphopeptide identification and phosphosite localization results, underscoring a critical need for benchmarking. While efforts have been made to compare performance of computational pipelines using data from synthetic phosphopeptides, evaluations involving real application data have been largely limited to comparing the numbers of phosphopeptide identifications due to the lack of appropriate evaluation metrics. We investigated three deep learning-derived features as potential evaluation metrics: phosphosite probability, Delta RT and spectral similarity. Predicted phosphosite probability is computed by MusiteDeep, which provides high accuracy as previously reported; Delta RT is defined as the absolute retention time (RT) difference between RTs observed and predicted by AutoRT; and spectral similarity is defined as the Pearson’s correlation coefficient between spectra observed and predicted by pDeep2. Using a synthetic peptide dataset, we found that both Delta RT and spectral similarity provided excellent discrimination between correct and incorrect peptide-spectrum matches (PSMs) both when incorrect PSMs involved wrong peptide sequences and even when incorrect PSMs were caused by only incorrect phosphosite localization. Based on these results, we used all the three deep learning-derived features as evaluation metrics to compare different computational pipelines on diverse set of phosphoproteomic datasets and showed their utility in benchmarking performance of the pipelines. The benchmark metrics demonstrated in this study will enable users to select computational pipelines and parameters for routine analysis of phosphoproteomics data and will offer guidance for developers to improve computational methods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An agentic artificially intelligent X-ray scientist

Executing experimental tasks in both normal research laboratories and large-scale scientific facilities often requires extensive human supervision and remains a key challenge on the path to fully autonomous, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven science. Here we demonstrate a large language model-driven agent that autonomously performs X-ray sample alignment on a synchrotron beamline by planning actions, executing instrumental commands, interpreting observations and iterating towards experimental goals. Based on existing large language models with structured tool-use via the model context protocol, our AI X-ray scientist was guided and tested using an in-house-built virtual experimental setup that mirrors a six-circle diffractometer at an operational synchrotron beamline. The agentic workflow developed in the virtual environment was directly deployed on a real beamline, where it correctly identified reference reflections and determined the orientation matrix, an essential first step in any type of single-crystal scattering experiment. Our AI X-ray scientist responded effectively to unexpected experimental conditions, demonstrating adaptive problem-solving and readiness for addressing practical experimental situations. Our study provides a step towards autonomous operation across diverse experimental environments at large-scale scattering facilities.

Chen, Zhantao (ORCID:0000000319543868)↗

A formally certified end-to-end implementation of Shor’s factorization algorithm

Quantum computing technology may soon deliver revolutionary improvements in algorithmic performance, but it is useful only if computed answers are correct. While hardware-level decoherence errors have garnered significant attention, a less recognized obstacle to correctness is that of human programming errors—“bugs.” Techniques familiar to most programmers from the classical domain for avoiding, discovering, and diagnosing bugs do not easily transfer, at scale, to the quantum domain because of its unique characteristics. To address this problem, we have been working to adapt formal methods to quantum programming. With such methods, a programmer writes a mathematical specification alongside the program and semiautomatically proves the program correct with respect to it. The proof’s validity is automatically confirmed—certified—by a “proof assistant.” Formal methods have successfully yielded high-assurance classical software artifacts, and the underlying technology has produced certified proofs of major mathematical theorems. As a demonstration of the feasibility of applying formal methods to quantum programming, we present a formally certified end-to-end implementation of Shor’s prime factorization algorithm, developed as part of a framework for applying the certified approach to general applications. By leveraging our framework, one can significantly reduce the effects of human errors and obtain a high-assurance implementation of large-scale quantum applications in a principled way.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

cotH Genes Are Necessary for Normal Spore Formation and Virulence in Mucor lusitanicus

Mucormycosis is an invasive fungal infection caused by certain members of the fungal order of Mucorales. The species most frequently identified as the etiological agents of mucormycosis belong to the genera Rhizopus , Lichtheimia , and Mucor . The frequency of systemic mucormycosis has been increasing, mainly because of increasing numbers of susceptible patients. Furthermore, Mucorales display intrinsic resistance to the majority of routinely used antifungal agents (e.g., echinocandins and short-tailed azoles), which limits the number of possible therapeutic options. All the above-mentioned issues urge the improvement of molecular identification methods and the discovery of new antifungal targets and strategies. Spore coat proteins (CotH) constitute a kinase family present in many pathogenic bacteria and fungi and participate in the spore formation in these organisms. Moreover, some of them can act as virulence factors being receptors of the human GRP78 protein during Rhizopus delemar-induced mucormycosis. We identified 17 cotH -like genes in the Mucor lusitanicus genome database. Successful disruption of five cotH genes in Mucor was performed using the CRISPR-Cas9 system. The CotH3 and CotH4 proteins play a role in adaptation to different temperatures as well as in developing the cell wall structure. We also show CotH4 protein is involved in spore wall formation by affecting the total chitin content and, thus, the composition of the spore wall. The role of CotH3 and CotH4 proteins in virulence was confirmed in two invertebrate models and a diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) mouse model.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Platform Of Optimal Experiment Management

The platform of optimal experiment management, POEM, powered with automated machine learning to accelerate the discovery of optimal solutions, and automatically guide the design of experiments to be evaluated. POEM currently supports 1) random model explorations for experiment design, 2) sparse grid model explorations with Gaussian Polynomial Chaos surrogate model to accelerate experiment design ,3) time-dependent model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to identify the importance features for experiment design, 4) model calibrations via Bayesian inference to integrate experiments to improve model performance, and 5) Bayesian optimization for optimal experimental design. In addition, POEM aims to simplify the process of experimental design for users, enabling them to analyze the data with minimal human intervention, and improving the technological output from research activities.

Wang, Congjian [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I↗

Enhancing Docking Accuracy with PECAN2, a 3D Atomic Neural Network Trained without Co-Complex Crystal Structures

Decades of drug development research have explored a vast chemical space for highly active compounds. The exponential growth of virtual libraries enables easy access to billions of synthesizable molecules. Computational modeling, particularly molecular docking, utilizes physics-based calculations to prioritize molecules for synthesis and testing. Nevertheless, the molecular docking process often yields docking poses with favorable scores that prove to be inaccurate with experimental testing. To address these issues, several approaches using machine learning (ML) have been proposed to filter incorrect poses based on the crystal structures. However, most of the methods are limited by the availability of structure data. Here, we propose a new pose classification approach, PECAN2 (Pose Classification with 3D Atomic Network 2), without the need for crystal structures, based on a 3D atomic neural network with Point Cloud Network (PCN). The new approach uses the correlation between docking scores and experimental data to assign labels, instead of relying on the crystal structures. We validate the proposed classifier on multiple datasets including human mu, delta, and kappa opioid receptors and SARS-CoV-2 Mpro. Our results demonstrate that leveraging the correlation between docking scores and experimental data alone enhances molecular docking performance by filtering out false positives and false negatives.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Swine-to-Ferret Transmission of Antigenically Drifted Contemporary Swine H3N2 Influenza A Virus Is an Indicator of Zoonotic Risk to Humans

Human-to-swine transmission of influenza A (H3N2) virus occurs repeatedly and plays a critical role in swine influenza A virus (IAV) evolution and diversity. Human seasonal H3 IAVs were introduced from human-to-swine in the 1990s in the United States and classified as 1990.1 and 1990.4 lineages; the 1990.4 lineage diversified into 1990.4.A–F clades. Additional introductions occurred in the 2010s, establishing the 2010.1 and 2010.2 lineages. Human zoonotic cases with swine IAV, known as variant viruses, have occurred from the 1990.4 and 2010.1 lineages, highlighting a public health concern. If a variant virus is antigenically drifted from current human seasonal vaccine (HuVac) strains, it may be chosen as a candidate virus vaccine (CVV) for pandemic preparedness purposes. We assessed the zoonotic risk of US swine H3N2 strains by performing phylogenetic analyses of recent swine H3 strains to identify the major contemporary circulating genetic clades. Representatives were tested in hemagglutination inhibition assays with ferret post-infection antisera raised against existing CVVs or HuVac viruses. The 1990.1, 1990.4.A, and 1990.4.B.2 clade viruses displayed significant loss in cross-reactivity to CVV and HuVac antisera, and interspecies transmission potential was subsequently investigated in a pig-to-ferret transmission study. Strains from the three lineages were transmitted from pigs to ferrets via respiratory droplets, but there were differential shedding profiles. These data suggest that existing CVVs may offer limited protection against swine H3N2 infection, and that contemporary 1990.4.A viruses represent a specific concern given their widespread circulation among swine in the United States and association with multiple zoonotic cases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Consistent performance of large language models in rare disease diagnosis across ten languages and 4917 cases

Background Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used medicine for diverse applications including differential diagnostic support. The training data used to create LLMs such as the Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT) predominantly consist of English-language texts, but LLMs could be used across the globe to support diagnostics if language barriers could be overcome. Initial pilot studies on the utility of LLMs for differential diagnosis in languages other than English have shown promise, but a large-scale assessment on the relative performance of these models in a variety of European and non-European languages on a comprehensive corpus of challenging rare-disease cases is lacking. Methods We created 4917 clinical vignettes using structured data captured with Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO) terms with the Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH) Phenopacket Schema. These clinical vignettes span a total of 360 distinct genetic diseases with 2525 associated phenotypic features. We used translations of the Human Phenotype Ontology together with language-specific templates to generate prompts in English, Chinese, Czech, Dutch, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Spanish, and Turkish. We applied GPT-4o, version gpt-4o-2024-08-06, and the medically fine-tuned Meditron3-70B to the task of delivering a ranked differential diagnosis using a zero-shot prompt. An ontology-based approach with the Mondo disease ontology was used to map synonyms and to map disease subtypes to clinical diagnoses in order to automate evaluation of LLM responses. Findings For English, GPT-4o placed the correct diagnosis at the first rank 19.9% and within the top-3 ranks 27.0% of the time. In comparison, for the nine non-English languages tested here the correct diagnosis was placed at rank 1 between 16.9% and 20.6%, within top-3 between 25.4% and 28.6% of cases. The Meditron3 model placed the correct diagnosis within the first 3 ranks for 20.9% of cases in English and between 19.9% and 24.0% for the other nine languages. Interpretation The differential diagnostic performance of LLMs across a comprehensive corpus of rare-disease cases was largely consistent across the ten languages tested. This suggests that the utility of LLMs in clinical settings may extend to non-English clinical settings.

Artificial intelligence↗

Large language model evaluation for high–performance computing software development

We apply AI-assisted large language model (LLM) capabilities of GPT-3 targeting high-performance computing (HPC) kernels for (i) code generation, and (ii) auto-parallelization of serial code in C ++, Fortran, Python and Julia. Our scope includes the following fundamental numerical kernels: AXPY, GEMV, GEMM, SpMV, Jacobi Stencil, and CG, and language/programming models: (1) C++ (e.g., OpenMP [including offload], OpenACC, Kokkos, SyCL, CUDA, and HIP), (2) Fortran (e.g., OpenMP [including offload] and OpenACC), (3) Python (e.g., numpy, Numba, cuPy, and pyCUDA), and (4) Julia (e.g., Threads, CUDA.jl, AMDGPU.jl, and KernelAbstractions.jl). Kernel implementations are generated using GitHub Copilot capabilities powered by the GPT-based OpenAI Codex available in Visual Studio Code given simple + + prompt variants. To quantify and compare the generated results, we propose a proficiency metric around the initial 10 suggestions given for each prompt. For auto-parallelization, we use ChatGPT interactively giving simple prompts as in a dialogue with another human including simple “prompt engineering” follow ups. Results suggest that correct outputs for C++ correlate with the adoption and maturity of programming models. For example, OpenMP and CUDA score really high, whereas HIP is still lacking. We found that prompts from either a targeted language such as Fortran or the more general-purpose Python can benefit from adding language keywords, while Julia prompts perform acceptably well for its Threads and CUDA.jl programming models. Finally, we expect to provide an initial quantifiable point of reference for code generation in each programming model using a state-of-the-art LLM. Overall, understanding the convergence of LLMs, AI, and HPC is crucial due to its rapidly evolving nature and how it is redefining human-computer interactions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗