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NASA NTRS2002

Experimental Investigations of Non-Stationary Properties In Radiometer Receivers Using Measurements of Multiple Calibration References

Radiometers must be periodically calibrated because the receiver response fluctuates. Many techniques exist to correct for the time varying response of a radiometer receiver. An analytical technique has been developed that uses generalized least squares regression (LSR) to predict the performance of a wide variety of calibration algorithms. The total measurement uncertainty including the uncertainty of the calibration can be computed using LSR. The uncertainties of the calibration samples used in the regression are based upon treating the receiver fluctuations as non-stationary processes. Signals originating from the different sources of emission are treated as simultaneously existing random processes. Thus, the radiometer output is a series of samples obtained from these random processes. The samples are treated as random variables but because the underlying processes are non-stationary the statistics of the samples are treated as non-stationary. The statistics of the calibration samples depend upon the time for which the samples are to be applied. The statistics of the random variables are equated to the mean statistics of the non-stationary processes over the interval defined by the time of calibration sample and when it is applied. This analysis opens the opportunity for experimental investigation into the underlying properties of receiver non stationarity through the use of multiple calibration references. In this presentation we will discuss the application of LSR to the analysis of various calibration algorithms, requirements for experimental verification of the theory, and preliminary results from analyzing experiment measurements.

Racette, Paul↗

NASA NTRS2003

Using a Genetic Algorithm to Design Nuclear Electric Spacecraft

The basic approach to to design nuclear electric spacecraft is to generate a group of candidate designs, see how "fit" the design are, and carry best design forward to the next generation. Some designs eliminated, some randomly modified and carried forward.

Pannell, William P.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Retrieval of Soil Moisture and Roughness from the Polarimetric Radar Response

The main objective of this investigation was the characterization of soil moisture using imaging radars. In order to accomplish this task, a number of intermediate steps had to be undertaken. In this proposal, the theoretical, numerical, and experimental aspects of electromagnetic scattering from natural surfaces was considered with emphasis on remote sensing of soil moisture. In the general case, the microwave backscatter from natural surfaces is mainly influenced by three major factors: (1) the roughness statistics of the soil surface, (2) soil moisture content, and (3) soil surface cover. First the scattering problem from bare-soil surfaces was considered and a hybrid model that relates the radar backscattering coefficient to soil moisture and surface roughness was developed. This model is based on extensive experimental measurements of the radar polarimetric backscatter response of bare soil surfaces at microwave frequencies over a wide range of moisture conditions and roughness scales in conjunction with existing theoretical surface scattering models in limiting cases (small perturbation, physical optics, and geometrical optics models). Also a simple inversion algorithm capable of providing accurate estimates of soil moisture content and surface rms height from single-frequency multi-polarization radar observations was developed. The accuracy of the model and its inversion algorithm is demonstrated using independent data sets. Next the hybrid model for bare-soil surfaces is made fully polarimetric by incorporating the parameters of the co- and cross-polarized phase difference into the model. Experimental data in conjunction with numerical simulations are used to relate the soil moisture content and surface roughness to the phase difference statistics. For this purpose, a novel numerical scattering simulation for inhomogeneous dielectric random surfaces was developed. Finally the scattering problem of short vegetation cover above a rough soil surface was considered. A general scattering model for grass-blades of arbitrary cross section was developed and incorporated in a first order random media model. The vegetation model and the bare-soil model are combined and the accuracy of the combined model is evaluated against experimental observations from a wheat field over the entire growing season. A complete set of ground-truth data and polarimetric backscatter data were collected. Also an inversion algorithm for estimating soil moisture and surface roughness from multi-polarized multi-frequency observations of vegetation-covered ground is developed.

Sarabandi, Kamal↗

DOE OSTI2025

Superspin renormalization and slow relaxation in random spin systems

We develop an excited-state real-space renormalization group (RSRG-X) formalism to describe the dynamics of conserved densities in randomly interacting spin-12 systems. Our formalism is suitable for systems with U(1) and Z2 symmetries, and we apply it to chains of randomly positioned spins with dipolar XX+YY interactions, as arise in Rydberg quantum simulators and other platforms. The formalism generates a sequence of effective Hamiltonians that provide approximate descriptions for dynamics on successively smaller energy scales. These effective Hamiltonians involve “superspins”: two-level collective degrees of freedom constructed from (anti)aligned microscopic spins. Conserved densities can then be understood as relaxing via coherent collective spin flips. For the well-studied simpler case of randomly interacting nearest-neighbor XX+YY chains, the superspins reduce to single spins. Our formalism also leads to a numerical method capable of simulating the dynamics up to an otherwise inaccessible combination of large system size and late time. Focusing on disorder-averaged infinite-temperature autocorrelation functions, in particular the spin survival probability Sp¯(t), we demonstrate quantitative agreement between our algorithm and exact diagonalization (ED) at low but nonzero frequencies. Such agreement holds for chains with nearest-neighbor, next-nearest-neighbor, and long-range dipolar interactions. Our results indicate decay of Sp¯(t) slower than any power law and feature no significant deviation from the ∼1/ln2(t) asymptote expected from the infinite-randomness fixed-point of the nearest-neighbor model. We also apply the RSRG-X formalism to two-dimensional long-range systems of moderate size and find slow late-time decay of Sp¯(t).

Zhao, Yi J↗

NASA NTRS1997

Dynamic Flow Management Problems in Air Transportation

In 1995, over six hundred thousand licensed pilots flew nearly thirty-five million flights into over eighteen thousand U.S. airports, logging more than 519 billion passenger miles. Since demand for air travel has increased by more than 50% in the last decade while capacity has stagnated, congestion is a problem of undeniable practical significance. In this thesis, we will develop optimization techniques that reduce the impact of congestion on the national airspace. We start by determining the optimal release times for flights into the airspace and the optimal speed adjustment while airborne taking into account the capacitated airspace. This is called the Air Traffic Flow Management Problem (TFMP). We address the complexity, showing that it is NP-hard. We build an integer programming formulation that is quite strong as some of the proposed inequalities are facet defining for the convex hull of solutions. For practical problems, the solutions of the LP relaxation of the TFMP are very often integral. In essence, we reduce the problem to efficiently solving large scale linear programming problems. Thus, the computation times are reasonably small for large scale, practical problems involving thousands of flights. Next, we address the problem of determining how to reroute aircraft in the airspace system when faced with dynamically changing weather conditions. This is called the Air Traffic Flow Management Rerouting Problem (TFMRP) We present an integrated mathematical programming approach for the TFMRP, which utilizes several methodologies, in order to minimize delay costs. In order to address the high dimensionality, we present an aggregate model, in which we formulate the TFMRP as a multicommodity, integer, dynamic network flow problem with certain side constraints. Using Lagrangian relaxation, we generate aggregate flows that are decomposed into a collection of flight paths using a randomized rounding heuristic. This collection of paths is used in a packing integer programming formulation, the solution of which generates feasible and near-optimal routes for individual flights. The algorithm, termed the Lagrangian Generation Algorithm, is used to solve practical problems in the southwestern portion of United States in which the solutions are within 1% of the corresponding lower bounds.

Patterson, Sarah Stock↗

NASA NTRS2009

Phase Retrieval with Signal Bias

The effect of a uniform measurement bias, due to background light, stray light, detector dark current, or detector offset, on phase retrieval wavefront sensing algorithms is analyzed. Simulation results indicate that the root-mean-square error of the retrieved phase can be more sensitive to an unaccounted-for signal bias than to random noise in practical scenarios. Three methods for reducing the impact of signal bias are presented

Thurman, Samuel T.↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix Orbit Determination Example

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. First, consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. Then it follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix of the estimate will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully include all of the errors in the state estimate. The empirical error covariance matrix is determined from a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm. It is a formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix obtained through use of the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than the usual total weighted residual form. Based on its formulation, this matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty and whether the source is anticipated or not. It is expected that the empirical error covariance matrix will give a better, statistical representation of the state error in poorly modeled systems or when sensor performance is suspect. In its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch estimation algorithms. In the current problem being studied a truth model making use of gravity with spherical, J2 and J4 terms plus a standard exponential type atmosphere with simple diurnal and random walk components is used. The ability of the empirical state error covariance matrix to account for errors is investigated under four scenarios during orbit estimation. These scenarios are: exact modeling under known measurement errors, exact modeling under corrupted measurement errors, inexact modeling under known measurement errors, and inexact modeling under corrupted measurement errors. For this problem a simple analog of a distributed space surveillance network is used. The sensors in this network make only range measurements and with simple normally distributed measurement errors. The sensors are assumed to have full horizon to horizon viewing at any azimuth. For definiteness, an orbit at the approximate altitude and inclination of the International Space Station is used for the study. The comparison analyses of the data involve only total vectors. No investigation of specific orbital elements is undertaken. The total vector analyses will look at the chisquare values of the error in the difference between the estimated state and the true modeled state using both the empirical and theoretical error covariance matrices for each of scenario.

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Formulation and implementation of a practical algorithm for non-stationary adaptive state estimation

Background information on the Kalman filter is given first. A discussion of the filter parameters and their a priori determination follows. The discussion points out the need for adaptive determination of the process noise statistics. The filter innovations are presented as a means for developing the adaptive criteria. The criteria center around the estimation of the true mean and covariance of the filter innovations. A method for the numerical approximation of the mean and covariance of a locally stationary random process is presented. The definition of a local stationarity is presented. Local stationarity allows for the separation of the process statistics into a stationary component and a time-varying component. The separation method is discussed. A method for estimating the stationary and time-varying components is presented. As an example of its application to real problems, the algorithm is applied to the problem to the problem of reentry trajectory estimation for the Space Shuttle. Both the adaptive algorithm and the steady-state Kalman filter are applied to the problem. The results of the reconstructions are presented. The adaptive algorithm exhibits superior performance.

Whitemore, S. A.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Microwave holography of large reflector antennas - Simulation algorithms

The performance of large reflector antennas can be improved by identifying the location and amount of their surface distortions and correcting them. To determine the accuracy of the constructed surface profiles, simulation studies are used to incorporate both the effects of systematic and random distortions, particularly the effects of the displaced surface panels. In this paper, different simulation models are investigated, emphasizing a model based on the vector diffraction analysis of a curved reflector with displaced panels. The simulated far-field patterns are then used to reconstruct the location and amount of displacement of the surface panels by employing a fast Fourier transform/iterative procedure. The sensitivity of the microwave holography technique based on the number of far-field sampled points, level of distortions, polarizations, illumination tapers, etc., is also examined.

Rahmat-Samii, Y.↗

NASA NTRS2008

An Automatic Cloud Mask Algorithm Based on Time Series of MODIS Measurements

Quality of aerosol retrievals and atmospheric correction depends strongly on accuracy of the cloud mask (CM) algorithm. The heritage CM algorithms developed for AVHRR and MODIS use the latest sensor measurements of spectral reflectance and brightness temperature and perform processing at the pixel level. The algorithms are threshold-based and empirically tuned. They don't explicitly address the classical problem of cloud search, wherein the baseline clear-skies scene is defined for comparison. Here, we report on a new CM algorithm which explicitly builds and maintains a reference clear-skies image of the surface (refcm) using a time series of MODIS measurements. The new algorithm, developed as part of the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm for MODIS, relies on fact that clear-skies images of the same surface area have a common textural pattern, defined by the surface topography, boundaries of rivers and lakes, distribution of soils and vegetation etc. This pattern changes slowly given the daily rate of global Earth observations, whereas clouds introduce high-frequency random disturbances. Under clear skies, consecutive gridded images of the same surface area have a high covariance, whereas in presence of clouds covariance is usually low. This idea is central to initialization of refcm which is used to derive cloud mask in combination with spectral and brightness temperature tests. The refcm is continuously updated with the latest clear-skies MODIS measurements, thus adapting to seasonal and rapid surface changes. The algorithm is enhanced by an internal dynamic land-water-snow classification coupled with a surface change mask. An initial comparison shows that the new algorithm offers the potential to perform better than the MODIS MOD35 cloud mask in situations where the land surface is changing rapidly, and over Earth regions covered by snow and ice.

Lyapustin, Alexei↗

NASA NTRS1989

Multi-version software reliability through fault-avoidance and fault-tolerance

A number of experimental and theoretical issues associated with the practical use of multi-version software to provide run-time tolerance to software faults were investigated. A specialized tool was developed and evaluated for measuring testing coverage for a variety of metrics. The tool was used to collect information on the relationships between software faults and coverage provided by the testing process as measured by different metrics (including data flow metrics). Considerable correlation was found between coverage provided by some higher metrics and the elimination of faults in the code. Back-to-back testing was continued as an efficient mechanism for removal of un-correlated faults, and common-cause faults of variable span. Software reliability estimation methods was also continued based on non-random sampling, and the relationship between software reliability and code coverage provided through testing. New fault tolerance models were formulated. Simulation studies of the Acceptance Voting and Multi-stage Voting algorithms were finished and it was found that these two schemes for software fault tolerance are superior in many respects to some commonly used schemes. Particularly encouraging are the safety properties of the Acceptance testing scheme.

Vouk, Mladen A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Efficiency of parallel direct optimization

Tremendous progress has been made at the level of sequential computation in phylogenetics. However, little attention has been paid to parallel computation. Parallel computing is particularly suited to phylogenetics because of the many ways large computational problems can be broken into parts that can be analyzed concurrently. In this paper, we investigate the scaling factors and efficiency of random addition and tree refinement strategies using the direct optimization software, POY, on a small (10 slave processors) and a large (256 slave processors) cluster of networked PCs running LINUX. These algorithms were tested on several data sets composed of DNA and morphology ranging from 40 to 500 taxa. Various algorithms in POY show fundamentally different properties within and between clusters. All algorithms are efficient on the small cluster for the 40-taxon data set. On the large cluster, multibuilding exhibits excellent parallel efficiency, whereas parallel building is inefficient. These results are independent of data set size. Branch swapping in parallel shows excellent speed-up for 16 slave processors on the large cluster. However, there is no appreciable speed-up for branch swapping with the further addition of slave processors (>16). This result is independent of data set size. Ratcheting in parallel is efficient with the addition of up to 32 processors in the large cluster. This result is independent of data set size. c2001 The Willi Hennig Society.

NASA Discipline Evolutionary Biology↗

NASA NTRS2009

Stochastic Formal Correctness of Numerical Algorithms

We provide a framework to bound the probability that accumulated errors were never above a given threshold on numerical algorithms. Such algorithms are used for example in aircraft and nuclear power plants. This report contains simple formulas based on Levy's and Markov's inequalities and it presents a formal theory of random variables with a special focus on producing concrete results. We selected four very common applications that fit in our framework and cover the common practices of systems that evolve for a long time. We compute the number of bits that remain continuously significant in the first two applications with a probability of failure around one out of a billion, where worst case analysis considers that no significant bit remains. We are using PVS as such formal tools force explicit statement of all hypotheses and prevent incorrect uses of theorems.

Daumas, Marc↗

NASA NTRS2022

Estimating pixel-level uncertainty in ocean color retrievals from MODIS

The spectral distribution of marine remote sensing reflectance, R(rs), is the fundamental measurement of ocean color science, from which a host of bio-optical and biogeochemical properties of the water column can be derived. Estimation of uncertainty in these derived properties is thus dependent on knowledge of the uncertainty in satellite-retrieved R(rs) (u(c)(R(rs))) at each pixel. Uncertainty in R(rs), in turn, is dependent on the propagation of various uncertainty sources through the R(rs) retrieval process, namely the atmospheric correction (AC). A derivative-based method for uncertainty propagation is established here to calculate the pixel-level uncertainty in R(rs), as retrieved using NASA’s multiple-scattering epsilon (MSEPS) AC algorithm and verified using Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. The approach is then applied to measurements from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite, with uncertainty sources including instrument random noise, instrument systematic uncertainty, and forward model uncertainty. The uc(Rrs) is verified by comparison with statistical analysis of coincident retrievals from MODIS and in situ Rrs measurements, and our approach performs well in most cases. Based on analysis of an example 8-day global products, we also show that relative uncertainty in R(rs) at blue bands has a similar spatial pattern to the derived concentration of the phytoplankton pigment chlorophyll-a (chl-a), and around 7.3%, 17.0%, and 35.2% of all clear water pixels (chl-a ≤ 0.1 mg/cu.m) with valid u(c)(R(rs)) have a relative uncertainty ≤ 5% at bands 412 nm, 443 nm, and 488 nm respectively, which is a common goal of ocean color retrievals for clear waters. While the analysis shows that u(c)(R(rs)) calculated from our derivative-based method is reasonable, some issues need further investigation, including improved knowledge of forward model uncertainty and systematic uncertainty in instrument calibration.

Pixel-level uncertainty↗

DOE OSTI2026

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using the Metropolis algorithm to explore the loss surface of a recurrent neural network

In the limit of small trial moves the Metropolis Monte Carlo algorithm is equivalent to gradient descent on the energy function in the presence of Gaussian white noise. This observation was originally used to demonstrate a correspondence between Metropolis Monte Carlo moves of model molecules and overdamped Langevin dynamics, but it also applies in the context of training a neural network: making small random changes to the weights of a neural network, accepted with the Metropolis probability, with the loss function playing the role of energy, has the same effect as training by explicit gradient descent in the presence of Gaussian white noise. We explore this correspondence in the context of a simple recurrent neural network. We also explore regimes in which this correspondence breaks down, where the gradient of the loss function becomes very large or small. In these regimes the Metropolis algorithm can still effect training, and so can be used as a probe of the loss function of a neural network in regimes in which gradient descent struggles. We also show that training can be accelerated by making purposely-designed Monte Carlo trial moves of neural-network weights.

Casert, Corneel↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demonstration of reconstruction-free static magnetic control of DIII-D plasma with deep reinforcement learning

This paper presents the development and experimental validation of a reinforcement learning (RL)-based magnetic controller on the DIII-D tokamak. The controller directly maps raw magnetic diagnostic signals to actuator commands, replacing the traditional isoflux control algorithm based on equilibrium reconstruction. Four RL controllers are trained using the Soft Actor–Critic algorithm with an asymmetric Actor–Critic architecture in the NSFsim simulator. All controllers are deployed in the DIII-D Plasma Control System and operated with a 4 kHz feedback loop. Two randomization strategies are evaluated during training: evolving kinetic profiles and fixed kinetic profiles within each episode. The latter approach is found to better capture experimental deviations in the current density profile and to provide overall improved control performance. Robust operation is demonstrated across heating power scans in both L- and H-mode plasmas, as well as during transient events such as L–H transitions and pellet injections. Control errors in plasma shape and radial position remained within 1.5–2.0 cm and 1 cm, respectively. A notable discrepancy was observed in the vertical X-point position, with errors of up to approximately 4 cm, attributed to the current density distribution mismatches between simulations and experiments.

DIII-D↗

NASA NTRS1979

Real-time onboard geometric image correction

A system to perform real time onboard geometric connection of LANDSAT D resolution satellite imagery is described. System requirements, algorithms, sensors, and other hardware components are defined. Feasibility of implementing the correction process is demonstrated using Kalman filter techniques to incorporate information from onboard ephemeris, attitude control, and ground control points. Random access sensor systems, such as charge injected devices and charge coupled devices are used to obtain pixel values at desired ground location, thus greatly reducing the data processing requirements.

Discenza, W.↗