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Impact, a Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision Support - Status of Development

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database (consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources), dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the tool suite, its constituent parts and the plans for when it will deploy as an operational product, currently scheduled for the end of FY22. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the ability to cluster medical resources into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different DRMs, and different crew complements, and the ability to specify mission segments as periods of time assigned to one or more members of the crew during which unique mission events occur (e.g., extravehicular activities, surface operations, gravity well adaptations, etc.). IMPACT is gearing up for its verification and validation phase to compile the data package necessary for a successful Transition to Operations (TtO), per the guidance in NPR 8900.1B .

IMPACT↗

Studies of extra-solar Oort Clouds and the Kuiper Disk

This is the September 1995 Semi-Annual report for Studies of Extra-Solar Oort Clouds and the Kuiper Disk. We are conducting research designed to enhance our understanding of the evolution and detectability of comet clouds and disks. This area holds promise for also improving our understanding of outer solar system formation the bombardment history of the planets, the transport of volatiles and organics from the outer solar system to the inner planets, and to the ultimate fate of comet clouds around the Sun and other stars. According to 'standard' theory, both the Kuiper Disk and the Oort Cloud are (at least in part) natural products of the planetary accumulation stage of solar system formation. One expects such assemblages to be a common attribute of other solar systems. Therefore, searches for comet disks and clouds orbiting other stars offer a new method for inferring the presence of planetary systems. This project consists of two major efforts: (1) observational work to predict and search for the signatures of Oort Clouds and comet disks around other stars; and (2) modelling studies of the formation and evolution of the Kuiper Disk (KD) and similar assemblages that may reside around other stars, including beta Pic. These efforts are referred to as Task 1 and 2.

Stern, Alan↗

Evaluation of High-Performance Space Nuclear Electric Generators for Electric Propulsion Application

Electric propulsion applications are enhanced by high power-to-mass ratios for their electric power sources. At multi-megawatt levels, we can expect thrust production systems to be less than 5 kg/kWe. Application of nuclear electric propulsion to human Mars missions becomes an attractive alternative to nuclear thermal propulsion if the propulsion system is less than about 10 kg/kWe. Recent references have projected megawatt-plus nuclear electric sources at specific mass values from less than 1 kg/kWe to about 5 kg/kWe. Various assumptions are made regarding power generation cycle (turbogenerator; MHD (magnetohydrodynamics)) and reactor heat source design. The present paper compares heat source and power generation options on the basis of a parametric model that emphasizes heat transfer design and realizable hardware concept. Pressure drop (important!) is included in the power cycle analysis, and MHD and turbogenerator cycles are compared. Results indicate that power source specific mass less than 5 kg/kWe is attainable, even if peak temperatures achievable are limited to 1500 K. Projections of specific mass less than 1 kg/kWe are unrealistic, even at the highest peak temperatures considered.

Woodcock, Gordon↗

UAS Integration in the NAS Project: Flight Test 3 Data Analysis of JADEM-Autoresolver Detect and Avoid System

The Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration in the National Airspace System project, or UAS Integration in the NAS, aims to reduce technical barriers related to safety and operational challenges associated with enabling routine UAS access to the NAS. The UAS Integration in the NAS Project conducted a flight test activity, referred to as Flight Test 3 (FT3), involving several Detect-and-Avoid (DAA) research prototype systems between June 15, 2015 and August 12, 2015 at the Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC). This report documents the flight testing and analysis results for the NASA Ames-developed JADEM-Autoresolver DAA system, referred to as 'Autoresolver' herein. Four flight test days (June 17, 18, 22, and July 22) were dedicated to Autoresolver testing. The objectives of this test were as follows: 1. Validate CPA prediction accuracy and detect-and-avoid (DAA, formerly known as self-separation) alerting logic in realistic flight conditions. 2. Validate DAA trajectory model including maneuvers. 3. Evaluate TCAS/DAA interoperability. 4. Inform final Minimum Operating Performance Standards (MOPS). Flight test scenarios were designed to collect data to directly address the objectives 1-3. Objective 4, inform final MOPS, was a general objective applicable to the UAS in the NAS project as a whole, of which flight test is a subset. This report presents analysis results completed in support of the UAS in the NAS project FT3 data review conducted on October 20, 2015. Due to time constraints and, to a lesser extent, TCAS data collection issues, objective 3 was not evaluated in this analysis.

flight test↗

Proper orthogonal decomposition based reduced-order modeling of flux-Limited gray thermal radiation

Here, in this work, a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) based reduced-order model (ROM) is developed to solve gray, flux-limited thermal radiation diffusion. We focus on the variable opacity radiation penetration benchmark posed by Olson, Auer, and Hall. The T -3 relationship for opacity in conjunction with high-temperature radiation penetrating an initially cold material produces a strong thermal radiation shock. This class of problems is particularly challenging for standard POD-based reduced-order modeling due to the nonlinearities presented by 1) the T 4 source term, and 2) flux-limited diffusion operator. To address these challenges and develop a cost competitive ROM, we employ a “hyper-reduction” technique through discrete empirical interpolation (DEIM) and allow for adaptive reduced-order projections through principal interval decomposition (PID). Performance of the proposed methodology is quantified by comparing the cost savings and accuracy relative to a full-order computation. Reference solutions and snapshot data are obtained through a full-order calculation performed by the University of Chicago maintained astrophysics code, FLASH. For consistency and potential extensibility, the developed ROM is also implemented in FLASH. We find that in the initialization regime, where the thermal radiation wave is initially created by the warming of the material, this class of problems is highly reducible and suitable for POD-based ROMs. However, the strong convective nature of the wave propagation regime is less reducible and more challenging to create an efficient ROM.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Medium Voltage Testbed for Comparing Advanced Power Line Sensors vs. Transformers with Electrical Grid Events

Electrical utilities have relied upon potential transformers (PTs) and current transformers (CTs) for very accurate metering and to provide reliable signals for protective relays. These devices measure phase voltages and currents and are commissioned by electrical engineers. PTs/CTs can detect and react to various electrical anomalies that could adversely affect electrical grid operations. Less expensive alternative sensing technologies offer the possibility of wider deployment, particularly in grids that employ distributed energy resources. In this work, the performance of an advanced medium-voltage sensor is compared with that of a reference PT and a CT and experimentally evaluated for different power grid scenarios on an advanced outdoor power line sensor testbed at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The sensor is based on a capacitive divider for voltage monitoring and a Rogowski coil with an integrator for current monitoring. This study simulated a power grid model based on a utility circuit at the Riverside EPB of Chattanooga. The simulation circuit was created with MATLAB/Simulink software and was integrated into an RT-LAB project to run with the OP4510 real-time simulator at the OPLST. During the tests, the real-time simulations were run for 40 s, and the signal to record the test event with the power meter was set at 30 s for the event-trigger circuit. The advanced outdoor power line sensor testbed has a real-time simulator that is used to generate transient scenarios (e.g., electrical faults, capacitor bank operation, and service restoration), while the analog signals are recorded by the same high-resolution power meter. The behaviors of analog signals, harmonic components, total harmonic distortion, and crest factors are assessed for this power line sensor and compared with those of the reference PT/CT because of the absence of testing standards for advanced outdoor power line sensors. The results showed that this OPLS technology responded identically to the PT and CT under all conditions.

Piesciorovsky, Emilio [ORNL]↗

Land of Opportunity: Potential for Renewable Energy on Federal Lands

Renewable energy (RE) in the United States has historically been deployed primarily on private lands, but the growing interest in RE development, generally across the country and specifically on federal lands, raises questions about the potential for RE on public lands. This study seeks to estimate RE technical potential on federal lands and project the amount of RE to be developed on federal lands under decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States. The study applied a combination of high-resolution geospatial analysis and power sector modeling and relied on multiple partner federal agencies and land administrators from the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Department of Energy. In our reference siting access case, we estimate 44 million acres of federal land across the contiguous United States is potentially suitable for UPV development, which corresponds to a capacity technical potential of 5,750 gigawatts (GW) (Figure ES-1). Federal land area available for wind development is similar to UPV but wind’s generating capacity technical potential is lower (875 GW). The technical potential is estimated for two geothermal technologies, hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), both of which have a smaller amount of federal land available for development (12 and 27 million acres, respectively). However, in terms of capacity, the technical potential for EGS (975 GW) is approximately equal to wind’s technical potential and there is an estimated 130 GW of hydrothermal potential. We also developed cases with more-limited land available for UPV and wind (for federal and non-federal lands) resulting in 96% reduction of wind capacity potential and 70% reduction for UPV. In a case with additional constraints applied to non-federal lands only (Limited Private), the overall (federal and non-federal) technical potential declines but the share of that technical potential on federal lands is higher than in the other siting cases. The technical potential is the maximum amount that could be developed, but only a small fraction would be developed or needed in the future. Across seven scenarios that achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035, we estimate 26 GW to 270 GW of RE capacity could be deployed on federal lands by 2035. The three central scenarios have 51–84 GW of RE deployed by 2035 and requiring about 500,000 to 1,000,000 acres of total land area. Direct land consumption is less than total land use required, thus enabling co-use opportunities. The large technical potential estimates and the increasing deployment projections from the collection of scenarios show the opportunities for RE development on federal lands. Capturing these opportunities-while minimizing conflicts with other land uses, federal department or agency missions, and public interest, and simultaneously maximizing the economic, grid, and social value of the projects-would require collaborative planning among federal land administrators, grid planners, project developers, the public, and other stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Defect graph neural networks for materials discovery in high-temperature clean-energy applications

We present a graph neural network approach that fully automates the prediction of defect formation enthalpies for any crystallographic site from the ideal crystal structure, without the need to create defected atomic structure models as input. Here we used density functional theory reference data for vacancy defects in oxides, to train a defect graph neural network (dGNN) model that replaces the density functional theory supercell relaxations otherwise required for each symmetrically unique crystal site. Interfaced with thermodynamic calculations of reduction entropies and associated free energies, the dGNN model is applied to the screening of oxides in the Materials Project database, connecting the zero-kelvin defect enthalpies to high-temperature process conditions relevant for solar thermochemical hydrogen production and other energy applications. The dGNN approach is applicable to arbitrary structures with an accuracy limited principally by the amount and diversity of the training data, and it is generalizable to other defect types and advanced graph convolution architectures. In conclusion, it will help to tackle future materials discovery problems in clean energy and beyond.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Recent activities for β-decay half-lives and β-delayed neutron emission of very neutron-rich isotopes

Beta-delayed neutron (βn) emitters play an important, two-fold role in the stellar nucleosynthesis of heavy elements in the 'rapid neutron-capture process' (r process). On one hand they lead to a detour of the material β-decaying back to stability. On the other hand, the released neutrons increase the neutron-to-seed ratio, and are re-captured during the freeze-out phase and thus influence the final solar r-abundance curve. A large fraction of the isotopes inside the r-process reaction path are not yet experimentally accessible and are located in the (experimental) 'Terra Incognita'. With the next generation of fragmentation and ISOL facilities presently being built or already in operation, one of the main motivation of all projects is the investigation of these very neutron-rich isotopes. A short overview of one of the planned programs to measure βn-emitters at the limits of the presently know isotopes, the BRIKEN campaign (Beta delayed neutron emission measurements at RIKEN) will be given. Presently, about 600 β-delayed one-neutron emitters are accessible, but only for a third of them experimental data are available. Reaching more neutron-rich isotopes means also that multiple neutron-emission becomes the dominant decay mechanism. About 460 β-delayed two-, three-or four-neutron emitters are identified up to now but for only 30 of them experimental data about the neutron branching ratios are available, most of them in the light mass region below A=30. The International Atomic and Energy Agency (IAEA) has identified the urgency and picked up this topic recently in a 'Coordinated Research Project' on a 'Reference Database for Beta-Delayed Neutron Emission Data'. This project will review, compile, and evaluate the existing data for neutron-branching ratios and half-lives of β-delayed neutron emitters and help to ensure a reliable database for the future discoveries of new isotopes and help to constrain astrophysical and theoretical models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Bayesian model mixing with multireference energy density functional

Reliably predicting nuclear properties across the entire chart of isotopes is important for applications ranging from nuclear astrophysics to superheavy science to nuclear technology. To this day, however, all the theoretical models that can scale at the level of the chart of isotopes remain semiphenomenological. Because they are fitted locally, their predictive power can vary significantly; different versions of the same theory provide different predictions. Bayesian model mixing takes advantage of such imperfect models to build a local mixture of a set of models to make improved predictions. Earlier attempts to use Bayesian model mixing for mass table calculations relied on models treated at single-reference energy density functional level, which fail to capture some of the correlations caused by configuration mixing or the restoration of broken symmetries. In this study we have applied Bayesian model mixing techniques within a multireference energy density functional (MR-EDF) framework. We considered predictions of two-particle separation energies from particle number projection or angular momentum projection with four different energy density functionals—a total of eight different MR-EDF models. We used a hierarchical Bayesian stacking framework with a Dirichlet prior distribution over weights together with an inverse log-ratio transform to enable positive correlations between different models. We found that Bayesian model mixing provides significantly improved predictions compared to the participating models. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

IRMA

IRMA (In)elastic Representation of Materials As S(α,β) evaluations IRMA turns one phonon model into three outputs that usually require three separate tool chains: an evaluated nuclear-data file, predicted neutron-scattering spectra, and scattering kernels for Monte Carlo transport. The three outputs draw on a single, consistent description of the material, so the evaluation, the spectroscopy that can validate it, and the transport that uses it always agree about the physics. Nuclear data. IRMA writes ENDF-6 File 7 thermal scattering evaluations on automatically constructed (α, β) grids. This part reimplements and generalizes NJOY's LEAPR: the classic kernels reproduce freshly generated NJOY2016 tapes digit for digit and published reference tapes to about 1e-4, and the generalized paths add the exact coherent one-phonon term, anisotropic Debye-Waller tensors, coherent elastic for arbitrary crystals, and a per-species partition for polyatomic materials. The tapes feed NJOY, AMPX, FUDGE, and every transport code downstream of them. Neutron spectroscopy. The irma.spectra forward model projects the same physics onto an instrument's kinematics and resolution: INS spectra for VISION and generic indirect geometries, and 2-D S(Q,E) powder maps for direct-geometry spectrometers, from a phonopy model or straight from a phonon DOS. It can be used to predict a proposed measurement before beam time; in analysis, it supplies the calculated single-scattering counterpart of a measured spectrum, from the same material description the evaluation was built from. Monte Carlo transport. The irma.ncrystal exporter writes per-temperature scattering kernels for the companion NCrystal plugin, so McStas, OpenMC, and other NCrystal-aware codes sample the same physics. The exported kernels carry the per-site anisotropic Debye-Waller tensors, keeping directional coherent-elastic physics that NCrystal's standard scalar treatment does not represent. With the same physics inside a transport code, an entire beamline becomes a virtual experiment: IRMA's end-to-end validation ran a custom McStas implementation of the ARCS spectrometer, assembled from the existing McVine and McStas models, against measured data. From a bare crystal structure. The irma mlip front end builds the phonon model itself: a structure file and a choice of potential are enough. Nine pretrained machine-learned interatomic potentials are supported, on a laptop CPU, with no first-principles calculation; an approximate phonon model for a new material costs minutes, not a DFT campaign, and the build emits prefilled inputs for all three outputs. The result is a good starting point rather than a finished evaluation: survey-quality physics with every parameter exposed for review. A converged atomistic calculation enters the same way, as a phonopy model, when higher fidelity is needed.

Ramic, Kemal [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

Utah FORGE: 2023 Large Upscaled Discrete Fracture Network Models

This dataset includes the data and a report on the large upscaled discrete fracture network modeling done for the Utah FORGE project in 2023. The FORGE modeling team is making five discrete fracture network (DFN) realizations of a large reservoir model available to researchers. These models have been upscaled to a continuum mesh or grid at resolutions of 10 meters and 20 meters providing reservoir properties for fracture porosity, permeability, and compressibility. The models are available in both the reference global coordinate frame and a local coordinate frame aligned with principal stress directions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego Theory Manual (V.4.44)

The SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego along with the SIERRA Participating Media Radiation Module: Syrinx, henceforth referred to as Fuego and Syrinx, respectively, are the key elements of the ASCI fire environment simulation project. The fire environment simulation project is directed at characterizing both open large-scale pool fires and building enclosure fires. Fuego represents the turbulent, buoyantly-driven incompressible flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, combustion, soot, and absorption coefficient model portion of the simulation software. Syrinx represents the participating-media thermal radiation mechanics. This project is an integral part of the SIERRA multi-mechanics software development project. Fuego depends heavily upon the core architecture developments provided by SIERRA for massively parallel computing, solution adaptivity, and mechanics coupling on unstructured grids.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego User Manual (V.4.44)

The SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego along with the SIERRA Participating Media Radiation Module: Syrinx, henceforth referred to as Fuego and Syrinx, respectively, are the key elements of the ASCI fire environment simulation project. The fire environment simulation project is directed at characterizing both open large-scale pool fires and building enclosure fires. Fuego represents the turbulent, buoyantly-driven incompressible flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, combustion, soot, and absorption coefficient model portion of the simulation software. Syrinx represents the participating-media thermal radiation mechanics. This project is an integral part of the SIERRA multi-mechanics software development project. Fuego depends heavily upon the core architecture developments provided by SIERRA for massively parallel computing, solution adaptivity, and mechanics coupling on unstructured grids.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego Theory Manual Version 4.46.

The SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego along with the SIERRA Participating Media Radiation Module: Syrinx, henceforth referred to as Fuego and Syrinx, respectively, are the key elements of the ASCI fire environment simulation project. The fire environment simulation project is directed at characterizing both open large-scale pool fires and building enclosure fires. Fuego represents the turbulent, buoyantly-driven incompressible flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, combustion, soot, and absorption coefficient model portion of the simulation software. Syrinx represents the participating-media thermal radiation mechanics. This project is an integral part of the SIERRA multi-mechanics software development project. Fuego depends heavily upon the core architecture developments provided by SIERRA for massively parallel computing, solution adaptivity, and mechanics coupling on unstructured grids.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego User Manual Version 4.46.

The SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego along with the SIERRA Participating Media Radiation Module: Syrinx, henceforth referred to as Fuego and Syrinx, respectively, are the key elements of the ASCI fire environment simulation project. The fire environment simulation project is directed at characterizing both open large-scale pool fires and building enclosure fires. Fuego represents the turbulent, buoyantly-driven incompressible flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, combustion, soot, and absorption coefficient model portion of the simulation software. Syrinx represents the participating-media thermal radiation mechanics. This project is an integral part of the SIERRA multi-mechanics software development project. Fuego depends heavily upon the core architecture developments provided by SIERRA for massively parallel computing, solution adaptivity, and mechanics coupling on unstructured grids.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego User Manual - Version 4.50

The SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego along with the SIERRA Participating Media Radiation Module: Syrinx, henceforth referred to as Fuego and Syrinx, respectively, are the key elements of the ASCI fire environment simulation project. The fire environment simulation project is directed at characterizing both open large-scale pool fires and building enclosure fires. Fuego represents the turbulent, buoyantly-driven incompressible flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, combustion, soot, and absorption coefficient model portion of the simulation software. Syrinx represents the participating-media thermal radiation mechanics. This project is an integral part of the SIERRA multi-mechanics software development project. Fuego depends heavily upon the core architecture developments provided by SIERRA for massively parallel computing, solution adaptivity, and mechanics coupling on unstructured grids.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗