Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Reservoir Computing”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Multistage Stochastic optimization for mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling of cascaded hydroelectric system with renewable energy uncertainty

The uncertainties resulting from the escalating penetration of renewable energy resources pose severe challenges to the efficient operation of modern power systems. Hydroelectricity is characterized by its flexibility, controllability, and reliability, and thus becomes one of the most ideal energy resources to hedge against such uncertainties. This paper studies the mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling of a cascaded hydroelectric system (CHS) consisting of multiple cascaded reservoirs and hydroelectric units. To precisely describe the mid-term water regulation policies, the hydraulic coupling relationship and water-energy nexus of CHS are incorporated into the proposed optimization model. The uncertainties of natural water inflow and the power outputs of wind/solar energy generation are taken into consideration and captured via a stochastic process modeled by a scenario tree. A multistage stochastic optimization (MSO) approach is developed to coordinate the complementary operations of multiple energy resources, by optimizing the mid-term water resource management, generation scheduling, and maintenance scheduling of CHS. The proposed MSO model is formulated as a large-scale mixed-integer linear program that presents significant computational intractability. To address this issue, a tailored Benders decomposition algorithm is developed. Two real-world case studies are conducted to demonstrate the capability and characteristics of the proposed model and algorithm. The computational results show that the proposed MSO model can exploit the flexibility of hydroelectricity to efficiently respond to variable wind and solar power, and reserve water resources for the generation in peak months to reduce the consumption of fossil fuel. Furthermore, the proposed solution approach also exhibits promising computational efficiency when handling large-scale models.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

An optimization approach to design monitoring schemes for CO 2 leakage detection

This paper demonstrates an approach to identify optimal monitoring designs that minimize the time to first detection of CO 2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. This research is part of the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP), a DOE project tasked with conducting risk and uncertainty analysis in the areas of reservoir performance, natural leakage pathways, wellbore integrity, groundwater protection, monitoring, and systems level modeling. Our approach applies a simulated annealing algorithm that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring designs. An example application is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of this method compared to an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. We took into account uncertainty by evaluating the performance of potential monitoring designs across a set of simulated leakage realization. A flexible two-tiered signature was implemented to infer that CO 2 leakage had occurred. This approach was ~50 times faster than an exhaustive search. A user-friendly tool, MDLD, is being developed for use on personal computers to make this method available to stakeholders, regulators, and researchers.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Water-Oil Displacement in Shale: New Insights from a Comparative Study Integrating Imbibition Tests and Multiscale Imaging

Water-oil displacement is an important process that occurs in a shale matrix after hydraulic fracturing and in water-based enhanced oil recovery. Current understanding of this displacement process is limited because of the complicated pore structure and surface properties in shale. In this work, this process and its controlling factors are investigated through a comparative study of three shale samples that have different types of pore systems and wettability. Here, an integrated method of imbibition and multiscale imaging was applied, and a modified oleic tracer that can better represent oil flow was used in imbibition testing and micro-computed tomography (CT) imaging. Scanning electron microscope (SEM) pore characterization was then performed under high magnification with guidance from the micro-CT images showing the changes caused by oil or water imbibition. New insights were obtained on the importance of both wettability and pore size effect on oil recovery and the distribution of residual oil after water-oil displacement. Connectivity of pores with different wettability is also discussed based on 3D analysis and SEM pore characterization. Collectively, these new findings improve the understanding of the complicated process of water-oil displacement and the role of influencing factors. Important implications for improved oil recovery strategy in shale are discussed for different types of reservoir rocks. The integrated imaging and imbibition technique provides a new path for further investigation of improved oil recovery in shale.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Thermal Energy Storage for Dispatchable Geothermal Power

Dispatchable generation refers to sources of electricity that can be turned on or off, or can adjust their power output accordingly to an order. Geothermal plants are usually used for base-load power rather than dispatchable power. Flexibility is a challenge for a geothermal plant because the heat source does not naturally respond quickly to changes in demand. The current state-of-the-art approach to address this challenge is to maintain the geothermal fluid flows at relatively steady rates while providing a bypass around the generation equipment as needed. Under part load, some of the geothermal fluid is pumped to the surface, bypasses the generation equipment, and is re-injected to the ground without extracting any useful enthalpy. This approach is robust but necessarily incurs high parasitic power draws at part load due to the constant, full-flow pumping power requirements. There are even more challenges and unknowns for steam and flash geothermal plants, which were the focus for this project. As a process improvement to this existing configuration of a dispatchable geothermal plant, we examined the use of a phase-change thermal-energy storage (TES) unit that will provide some “inertia” against temperature fluctuations. The TES phase change material (PCM) could be in the form of eutectic molten nitrate salts, organic sugar alcohols, or the like based on the required temperature. This configuration allowed the power plant to meet the ramp rate requirements while allowing the geothermal resource to drawn down at the duty-cycle-averaged extraction rate rather than the full-rated-output extraction rate. The project team performed an experimental and computational evaluation of a peak shaving technical approach that used thermal storage to switch between two nominal operating points: full rated power and 50% power. In the initial requirements definition phase, the team decided to examine the PCM/TES-enhanced geothermal plant in the context of a 40-MW two-stage flash plant operating in mid-Southern California. Steady-state process simulations were used to understand the equipment sizing and the energetics. Dynamic process simulations were used to understand the response rate of the system to changes in requested power output from the utility. The technical approach was also guided by a techno-economic analysis (TEA) and a high-level analysis of the reservoir. Recognizing that performance of the thermal storage was a key risk element, high-fidelity finite-element simulations of the PCM-TES heat exchanger were performed to better understand its performance and temporal response. These simulations were validated with a subscale PCM-TES experimental apparatus that mimicked the geometry of the full-scale system. The key outcomes of this Phase I project were that: 1) the PCM-TES heat exchanger met the target for gravimetric energy storage density, 2) the dispatchable geothermal plant met its target for response rate, 3) the peak shaving approach reduces the number of production wells and does not disturb the wellfield, and 4) the incentives for properly remunerating dispatchable operation were identified.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

DOE Award No.: DE-FE0023919 Phase 3 Scientific/Technical Report

This is the Phase 3 Report for the ‘Deepwater Methane Hydrate Characterization and Scientific Assessment or Genesis of Methane Hydrates in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM2)’ research project (DOE Award No. DE-FE0023919). The report summarizes activities from January 16, 2018 to September 30, 2019. The project is led by the University of Texas at Austin (UT). The objective is to gain insight into the nature, formation, occurrence and physical properties of methane hydrate-bearing sediments for the purpose of methane hydrate resource appraisal through the planning and execution of drilling, coring, logging, testing and analytical activities that assess the geologic occurrence, regional context, and characteristics of marine methane hydrate deposits in the Gulf of Mexico outer continental shelf (OCS). We determined that it would not be possible to pursue the project with the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) and then developed a revised science and operations plan to maximize the science using a commercial vessel within the budget that is available. We improved the scientific capability of the UT pressure core center by adding the ability to X-ray pressure cores, and the ability to cut and store multiple core samples for experimental analysis. We transferred pressure cores to peer institutions, including the National Energy Technology Lab (NETL) the United States Geological Survey (USGS Woods Hole). We made advances in understanding the composition and source of gasses locked in the methane hydrate from Green Canyon 955 (GC-955). We developed approaches to determine the in-situ salinity of hydrate-bearing samples, revealing that the in situ salinity of the GC 955 reservoir is just above that of seawater. We determined that the GC-955 hydrate reservoir is composed of sandy silt with a high concentration of hydrate interbedded with clayey silt with no hydrate present. We determined that some or all of the intervals bounding the hydrate reservoir are composed of material similar to the reservoir (sandy silt with hydrate and clayey silt with no hydrate), but with a lower net to gross. We determined that the reservoir effective permeability at a hydrate saturation of ~80-90 % is ~0.1 mD (or 1.0×10-16 m2) to ~0.5 mD (or 5.0×10-16 m2) and the intrinsic permeability is ~12 mD (or 1.2×10-14 m2). The GC-955 reservoir in-situ porosity of sandy silt is 0.38 to 0.40 and is largely independent of effective stress, and that the porosity of clayey silt is 0.33 at an in situ effective stress of 3.8 MPa to ~0.37 at zero effective stress. We developed a systematic, repeatable approach to studying hydrate reservoir properties by reconstituting individual lithofacies from dissociated pressure cores. We determined index properties of GC-955 reservoir, including liquid limit and plasticity, porosity, capillary behavior, and particle size distribution. We developed a more robust pressure coring technology. We finalized and published the UT-GOM2-1 Expedition Volume and we finalized a dedicated volume on the UT-GOM2-1 expedition that will be published in the American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin (AAPG) in spring 2020.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2015

The Nanoscale Basis of CO 2 Trapping for Geologic Storage

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is likely to be a critical technology to achieve large reductions in global carbon emissions over the next century. Research on the subsurface storage of CO 2 is aimed at reducing uncertainties in the efficacy of CO 2 storage in sedimentary rock formations. Three key parameters that have a nanoscale basis and that contribute uncertainty to predictions of CO 2 trapping are the vertical permeability k v of seals, the residual CO 2 saturation S g,r in reservoir rocks, and the reactive surface area a r of silicate minerals. This review summarizes recent progress and identifies outstanding research needs in these areas. Available data suggest that the permeability of shale and mudstone seals is heavily dependent on clay fraction and can be extremely low even in the presence of fractures. Investigations of residual CO 2 trapping indicate that CO 2 -induced alteration in the wettability of mineral surfaces may significantly influence S g,r . Ultimately, the rate and extent of CO 2 conversion to mineral phases are uncertain due to a poor understanding of the kinetics of slow reactions between minerals and fluids. Finally, rapidly improving characterization techniques using X-rays and neutrons, and computing capability for simulating chemical interactions, provide promise for important advances.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Crossover behavior of the thermal conductance and Kramers’ transition rate theory

Kramers’ theory frames chemical reaction rates in solution as reactants overcoming a barrier in the presence of friction and noise. For weak coupling to the solution, the reaction rate is limited by the rate at which the solution can restore equilibrium after a subset of reactants have surmounted the barrier to become products. For strong coupling, there are always sufficiently energetic reactants. However, the solution returns many of the intermediate states back to the reactants before the product fully forms. Here, we demonstrate that the thermal conductance displays an analogous physical response to the friction and noise that drive the heat current through a material or structure. A crossover behavior emerges where the thermal reservoirs dominate the conductance at the extremes and only in the intermediate region are the intrinsic properties of the lattice manifest. Finally, not only does this shed new light on Kramers’ classic turnover problem, this result is significant for the design of devices for thermal management and other applications, as well as the proper simulation of transport at the nanoscale.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS2004

Observing the Global Water Cycle from Space

This paper presents an approach to measuring all major components of the water cycle from space. Key elements of the global water cycle are discussed in terms of the storage of water-in the ocean, air, cloud and precipitation, in soil, ground water, snow and ice, and in lakes and rivers, and in terms of the global fluxes of water between these reservoirs. Approaches to measuring or otherwise evaluating the global water cycle are presented, and the limitations on known accuracy for many components of the water cycle are discussed, as are the characteristic spatial and temporal scales of the different water cycle components. Using these observational requirements for a global water cycle observing system, an approach to measuring the global water cycle from space is developed. The capabilities of various active and passive microwave instruments are discussed, as is the potential of supporting measurements from other sources. Examples of space observational systems, including TRMM/GPM precipitation measurement, cloud radars, soil moisture, sea surface salinity, temperature and humidity profiling, other measurement approaches and assimilation of the microwave and other data into interpretative computer models are discussed to develop the observational possibilities. The selection of orbits is then addressed, for orbit selection and antenna size/beamwidth considerations determine the sampling characteristics for satellite measurement systems. These considerations dictate a particular set of measurement possibilities, which are then matched to the observational sampling requirements based on the science. The results define a network of satellite instrumentation systems, many in low Earth orbit, a few in geostationary orbit, and all tied together through a sampling network that feeds the observations into a data-assimilative computer model.

Hildebrand, P. H.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Smoothing-based compressed state Kalman filter for joint state-parameter estimation: Applications in reservoir characterization and CO 2 storage monitoring

The operation of most engineered hydrogeological systems relies on simulating physical processes using numerical models with uncertain parameters and initial conditions. Predictions by such uncertain models can be greatly improved by Kalman-filter techniques that sequentially assimilate monitoring data. Each assimilation constitutes a nonlinear optimization, which is solved by linearizing an objective function about the model prediction and applying a linear correction to this prediction. However, if model parameters and initial conditions are uncertain, the optimization problem becomes strongly nonlinear and a linear correction may yield unphysical results. In this paper, we investigate the utility of one-step ahead smoothing, a variant of the traditional filtering process, to eliminate nonphysical results and reduce estimation artifacts caused by nonlinearities. Here, we present the smoothing-based compressed state Kalman filter (sCSKF), an algorithm that combines one step ahead smoothing, in which current observations are used to correct the state and parameters one step back in time, with a nonensemble covariance compression scheme, that reduces the computational cost by efficiently exploring the high-dimensional state and parameter space. Numerical experiments show that when model parameters are uncertain and the states exhibit hyperbolic behavior with sharp fronts, as in CO 2 storage applications, one-step ahead smoothing reduces overshooting errors and, by design, gives physically consistent state and parameter estimates. We compared sCSKF with commonly used data assimilation methods and showed that for the same computational cost, combining one step ahead smoothing and nonensemble compression is advantageous for real-time characterization and monitoring of large-scale hydrogeological systems with sharp moving fronts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

The effect of Coulomb interactions on nonlinear thermovoltage and thermocurrent in quantum dots

In the present work, we theoretically study the nonlinear regime of charge transport through a quantum dot coupled to the source and drain reservoirs. The investigation is carried out using a nonequilibrium Green’s function formalism beyond the Hartree-Fock approximation. Employed approximations for the relevant Green’s functions allow to trace a transition from Coulomb blockade regime to Kondo regime in the thermoelectric transport. Effects arising when electrons move in response to thermal gradient applied across the system are discussed, including experimentally observed thermovoltage zeros.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2017

Three‐Phase CO 2 Flow in a Basalt Fracture Network

Abstract Geologic CO 2 sequestration in basalt reservoirs is predicated on permanent CO 2 isolation via rapid mineralization reactions. This process is supported by a substantial body of evidence, including laboratory experiments documenting rapid mineralization rates, regional storage estimates indicating large, accessible storage reservoirs, and two successful pilot‐scale studies. Nevertheless, there remains significant uncertainty in the behavior of CO 2 flow within basalt fracture networks, particularly in the context estimating physical trapping potential in early time and as CO 2 undergoes phase change. In this study, a Monte Carlo numerical model is designed to simulate a supercritical CO 2 plume infiltrating a low‐permeability flood basalt entablature. The fracture network model is based on outcrop‐scale LiDAR mapping of Columbia River Basalt, and CO 2 flow is simulated within fifty equally probable realizations of the fracture network. The spatial distribution of fracture permeability for each realization is randomly drawn from a basalt aperture distribution, and ensemble results are analyzed with e‐type estimates to compute mean and standard deviation of fluid pressure and CO 2 saturation. Results of this model after 10 years of simulation suggest that (1) CO 2 flow converges on a single dominant flow path, (2) CO 2 accumulates at fracture intersections, and (3) variability in permeability can account for a 1.6 m depth interval within which free CO 2 may change phase from supercritical fluid to subcritical liquid or gas. In the context of CO 2 sequestration in basalt, these results suggest that physical CO 2 trapping may be substantially enhanced as carbonate minerals precipitate within the basalt fracture network.

Gierzynski, Alec O.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Beyond the Surface: Non-Invasive Low-Field NMR Analysis of Microbially-Induced Calcium Carbonate Precipitation in Shale Fractures

Microbially-induced calcium carbonate precipitation (MICP) is a biological process in which microbially-produced urease enzymes convert urea and calcium into solid calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) deposits. MICP has been demonstrated to reduce permeability in shale fractures under elevated pressures, raising the possibility of applying this technology to enhance shale reservoir storage safety. For this and other applications to become a reality, non-invasive tools are needed to determine how effectively MICP seals shale fractures at subsurface temperatures. In this study, two different MICP strategies were tested on 2.54 cm diameter and 5.08 cm long shale cores with a single fracture at 60 °C. Flow-through, pulsed-flow MICP-treatment was repeatedly applied to Marcellus shale fractures with and without sand (“proppant”) until reaching approximately four orders of magnitude reduction in apparent permeability, while a single application of polymer-based “immersion” MICP-treatment was applied to an Eagle Ford shale fracture with proppant. Low-field nuclear magnetic resonance (LF-NMR) and X-Ray computed microtomography (micro-CT) techniques were used to assess the degree of biomineralization. With the flow-through approach, these tools revealed that while CaCO 3 precipitation occurred throughout the fracture, there was preferential precipitation around proppant. Without proppant, the same approach led to premature sealing at the inlet side of the core. In contrast, immersion MICP-treatment sealed off the fracture edges and showed less mineral precipitation overall. This study highlights the use of LF-NMR relaxometry in characterizing fracture sealing and can help guide NMR logging tools in subsurface remediation efforts.

MICP↗
DOE OSTI2026

ALD-Derived WO 3– x Leads to Nearly Wake-Up-Free Ferroelectric Hf 0.5 Zr 0.5 O 2 at Elevated Temperatures

Breaking the memory wall in advanced computing architectures will require complex 3D integration of emerging memory materials such as ferroelectrics─either within the back-end-of-line (BEOL) of CMOS front-end processes or through advanced 3D packaging technologies. Achieving this integration demands that memory materials exhibit high thermal resilience, with the capability to operate reliably at elevated temperatures, such as 125°C, due to the substantial heat generated by front-end transistors. However, silicon-compatible HfO 2 -based ferroelectrics tend to exhibit antiferroelectric-like behavior in this temperature range, accompanied by a more pronounced wake-up effect, posing significant challenges to their thermal reliability. Here, we report that by introducing a thin tungsten oxide (WO 3–x ) layer─known as an oxygen reservoir─and carefully tuning its oxygen content, ultrathin Hf 0.5 Zr 0.5 O 2 (5 nm) films can be made robust against the ferroelectric-to-antiferroelectric transition at elevated temperatures. This approach not only minimizes polarization loss in the pristine state but also effectively suppresses the wake-up effect, reducing the required wake-up cycles from 10 5 to only 10 at 125°C, a qualifying temperature for back-end memory integrated with front-end logic, as defined by the JEDEC standard. First-principles density functional theory (DFT) calculations reveal that WO 3 enhances the stability of the ferroelectric orthorhombic phase (o-phase) at elevated temperatures by increasing the tetragonal-to-orthorhombic phase energy gap and promoting favorable phonon mode evolution, thereby supporting o-phase formation under both thermodynamic and kinetic constraints.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Rapid Mineral Precipitation During Shear Fracturing of Carbonate-Rich Shales

Target subsurface reservoirs for emerging low-carbon energy technologies and geologic carbon sequestration typically have low permeability and thus rely heavily on fluid transport through natural and induced fracture networks. Sustainable development of these systems requires deeper understanding of how geochemically mediated deformation impacts fracture microstructure and permeability evolution, particularly with respect to geochemical reactions between pore fluids and the host rock. Here, a series of triaxial direct shear experiments was designed to evaluate how fractures generated at subsurface conditions respond to penetration of reactive fluids with a focus on the role of mineral precipitation. Calcite-rich shale cores were directly sheared under 3.5 MPa confining pressure using BaCl 2 -rich solutions as a working fluid. Experiments were conducted within an X-ray computed tomography (xCT) scanner to capture 4-D evolution of fracture geometry and precipitate growth. Three shear tests evidenced nonuniform precipitation of barium carbonates (BaCO 3 ) along through-going fractures, where the extent of precipitation increased with increasing calcite content. Precipitates were strongly localized within fracture networks due to mineral, geochemical, and structural heterogeneities and generally concentrated in smaller apertures where rock:water ratios were highest. The combination of elevated fluid saturation and reactive surface area created in freshly activated fractures drove near-immediate mineral precipitation that led to an 80% permeability reduction and significant flow obstruction in the most reactive core. While most previous studies have focused on mixing-induced precipitation, this work demonstrates that fluid–rock interactions can trigger precipitation-induced permeability alterations that can initiate or mitigate risks associated with subsurface energy systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Understanding Hydraulic Fracturing: A Multi-Scale Problem

Despite the impact that hydraulic fracturing has had on the energy sector, the physical mechanisms that control its efficiency and environmental impacts remain poorly understood in part because the length scales involved range from nano-meters to kilo-meters. We characterize flow and transport in shale formations across and between these scales using integrated computational, theoretical, and experimental efforts. At the field scale, we use discrete fracture network modeling to simulate production at a well site whose fracture network is based on a site characterization of a shale formation. At the core scale, we use triaxial fracture experiments and a finite-element discrete-element fracture propagation model with a coupled fluid solver to study dynamic crack propagation in low permeability shale. We use lattice Boltzmann pore-scale simulations and microfluidic experiments in both synthetic and real micromodels to study pore-scale flow phenomenon such as multiphase flow and mixing. A mechanistic description and integration of these multiple scales is required for accurate predictions of production and the eventual optimization of hydrocarbon extraction from unconventional reservoirs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Permeability and Mineral Composition Evolution of Primary Seal and Reservoir Rocks in Geologic Carbon Storage Conditions

It has been reported that deep saline aquifers represent the largest geologic CO 2 storage resource. To better predict containment effectiveness and long-term reservoir behavior of these formations, it is important to understand the potential geochemically induced changes to the porosity and permeability of both the primary sealing formation and CO 2 storage formation rocks. To investigate these potential changes, an experimental study to probe the geochemical interactions of CO 2 /brine/rock system under geologic CO 2 storage conditions was conducted in a static reaction system. Marine shale (primary sealing formation) and Lower Tuscaloosa sandstone (CO 2 storage formation) core samples taken from the Plant Daniel CO 2 storage test site (Jackson County, Mississippi) were exposed to CO 2 -saturated brine in a batch reactor at relevant geologic storage conditions (85°C and 23.8 MPa CO 2 pressure) for 6 months. X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, computed tomography, and brine chemistry analyses were performed before and after the exposure. Permeability measurements from the marine shale and sandstone core samples before and after CO 2 /brine exposure indicated a significant effective permeability change. Sealing marine shale permeability increased following exposure while the permeability of the sandstone from the storage formation was observed to decrease. Analysis results of the primary sealing formation sample (marine shale) at the Plant Daniel CO 2 storage test site have not been reported before. In conclusion, the permeability decrease of the Lower Tuscaloosa sandstone sample reported in this study verifies the results reported in a previous study. These results have implications for the integrity of the primary seal in a CO 2 storage setting.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep-learning-enhanced assessment of wellbore barrier effectiveness in geologic storage systems with intermediate aquifers

For geologic systems where carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is injected underground, existing wells represent potential pathways for fluid migration. Here, this study introduces a novel deep learning model to quantify the likelihood and potential magnitude of fluid migration through wellbores at sites with intermediate aquifers or thief zones between the injection units and underground drinking water sources. Synthetic datasets, generated using reservoir simulations, captured a wide range of subsurface conditions, well attributes, operational parameters, and fluid migration scenarios. Among the regression models developed to predict brine and CO 2 leakage rates and CO 2 saturations along leaky wellbores, convolutional neural network (CNN) outperformed both Light Gradient Boosting Machine and deep neural network. Additionally, a CNN-based classification model was created to predict whether brine and CO 2 would leak along a wellbore, further improving performance over regression alone. The best models were integrated into the National Risk Assessment Partnership Open-source Integrated Assessment Model for rapid, stochastic assessment of storage system containment and leakage risks. A case study demonstrated the model’s ability to simulate fluid migration through existing wells with multiple intermediate aquifers. This computationally efficient wellbore model offers value in support of site performance evaluation and risk-informed decision making by stakeholders.

CO2 leakage↗
DOE OSTI2019

Bayesian and LASSO Regressions for Comparative Permeability Modeling of Sandstone Reservoirs

In this research, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (LASSO) algorithms were adopted for the core permeability modeling as a function of well log and core measurements. More specifically, the core permeability (dependent factor) was modeled given the well log and core data (independent variables) and then predicted in non-cored intervals of a well in a sandstone formation. The BMA is a stochastic linear modeling and a Bayesian parameter selection. Among 50 linear models generated as a function of the independent variables and depicted in Occam’s window, the best model of the highest posterior probability is determined. The best model has the optimal subset parameters that most influences the response factor. The core permeability modeling was again conducted using the LASSO algorithm, which adopts a completely different way of modeling and subset selection by using the penalized least-squared equation. Both BMA and LASSO resulted in a very accurate prediction of the core permeability by achieving perfect measured and calculated permeability matching. Matches for the two algorithms were quantified by computing the adjusted R-squared and root-mean-squared prediction error. In addition, results of the BMA and LASSO were compared to the conventional multiple linear regression (LM). The LASSO algorithm led to an accurate matching similar to LM, but slightly better than BMA. Therefore, both BMA and LASSO represent integrated procedures for accurate permeability estimation similar to conventional regression analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗