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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Numerical Simulations of Geologic Storage Reservoir Management to Support Risk Mitigation Evaluation

This report provides a detailed description of a set of numerical simulations that represent reservoir behavior over time in response to different operational decision scenarios for detection of potential leakage and reduction or avoidance of leakage impact at a hypothetical geological carbon storage (GCS) site. These simulations serve as the basis for a series of GCS leakage risk forecasts that are to be developed using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), and a demonstration of a simple decision support workflow for evaluation of mitigation strategies based on results of those system model forecasts. This risk assessment and decision support study is forthcoming. Four injection scenarios were considered: a constant rate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection case (base case), a case with CO 2 injection rate adjustment, a case with early termination of injection operations, and a case with brine extraction. CO 2 injection operations were controlled to ensure that the pressure transient remains below the defined manageable reservoir fracture pressure, with consideration shown to hypothetical locations within the modeled spatial domain where the overburden was weaker and lower transient pressure increases were allowable. Additionally, a brine extraction alternative was considered as a reservoir management and risk mitigation option to reduce reservoir pressure, steer the plume away from any hypothetical geohazard such as fault as needed, and enhance storage capacity. Such operational actions contribute to risk management overtime. This study explores the potential utility of reservoir management for risk reduction at GCS sites. This study shows that the injection design may modify the time to CO 2 breakthrough at a legacy well; in particular, these results show that brine extraction can add value for mitigating risk both by delaying leakage and reducing pressure build-up. For the scenario considered, both pressure plots and pressure distributions demonstrate that pressure build-up was decreased by 3% with brine extraction. Additionally, extraction of brine afforded enhancement of CO 2 storage capacity by 5% compared to the base case. These findings suggest that brine extraction has substantial potential to steer the risk-related reservoir effects away from known geohazards (e.g., faults and legacy wells) by conducting pressure transient effects and CO 2 plume movement toward the production well. Injection rate adjustment scenarios considered in this study show potential value for managing both reservoir pressure transients and CO 2 plume behavior. Operational actions for reducing injection and/or early termination of injection (as compared to the base case), however, require careful design; tailoring both the extent and timing of injection rate adjustment over the injection and post-injection operational period must be thoroughly planned to balance maximizing storage and minimizing subsurface environmental risk. The study also gives preliminary consideration to the effectiveness that monitoring strategy may play in providing useful information to inform reservoir management decisions for risk reduction. Two types of monitoring were considered: 1) pressure build-up or pressure transient; and 2) potential leakage detection from a CO 2 mass or plume. Four hypothetical legacy wells, two plugged and two abandoned, were placed in the model domain. Monitoring along these wells was measured over time in individual stacked reservoir formations and shale formations to support risk mitigation decisions, especially operational decisions that assisted in risk reduction. These simulations will serve as the basis for a series of GCS leakage risk forecasts that are to be developed using NRAP’s Open-IAM, and demonstration of a simple decision support workflow for comparative assessment of mitigation alternatives based on results of those system model forecasts. This risk assessment and decision support study is forthcoming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

3D modeling of deep borehole electromagnetic measurements with energized casing source for fracture mapping at the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy

Here, we present a 3D numerical modelling analysis evaluating the deployment of a borehole electromagnetic measurement tool to detect and image a stimulated zone at the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy geothermal site. As the depth to the geothermal reservoir is several kilometres and the size of the stimulated zone is limited to several 100 m, surface-based controlled-source electromagnetic measurements lack the sensitivity for detecting changes in electrical resistivity caused by the stimulation. To overcome the limitation, the study evaluates the feasibility of using a three-component borehole magnetic receiver system at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy site. To provide sufficient currents inside and around the enhanced geothermal reservoir, we use an injection well as an energized casing source. To efficiently simulate energizing the injection well in a realistic 3D resistivity model, we introduce a novel modelling workflow that leverages the strengths of both 3D cylindrical-mesh-based electromagnetic modelling code and 3D tetrahedral-mesh-based electromagnetic modelling code. The former is particularly well-suited for modelling hollow cylindrical objects like casings, whereas the latter excels at representing more complex 3D geological structures. In this workflow, our initial step involves computing current densities along a vertical steel-cased well using a 3D cylindrical electromagnetic modelling code. Subsequently, we distribute a series of equivalent current sources along the well's trajectory within a complex 3D resistivity model. We then discretize this model using a tetrahedral mesh and simulate the borehole electromagnetic responses excited by the casing source using a 3D finite-element electromagnetic code. This multi-step approach enables us to simulate 3D casing source electromagnetic responses within a complex 3D resistivity model, without the need for explicit discretization of the well using an excessive number of fine cells. We discuss the applicability and limitations of this proposed workflow within an electromagnetic modelling scenario where an energized well is deviated, such as at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy site. Using the workflow, we demonstrate that the combined use of the energized casing source and the borehole electromagnetic receiver system offer measurable magnetic field amplitudes and sensitivity to the deep localized stimulated zone. The measurements can also distinguish between parallel-fracture anisotropic reservoirs and isotropic cases, providing valuable insights into the fracture system of the stimulated zone. Besides the magnetic field measurements, vertical electric field measurements in the open well sections are also highly sensitive to the stimulated zone and can be used as additional data for detecting and imaging the target. We can also acquire additional multiple-source data by grounding the surface electrode at various locations and repeating borehole electromagnetic measurements. This approach can increase the number of monitoring data by several factors, providing a more comprehensive dataset for analysing the deep-localized stimulated zone. The numerical analysis indicates that it is feasible to use the combination of the energized casing and downhole electromagnetic measurements in monitoring localized stimulated zone at large depths.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty of 21st Century western U.S. snowfall loss derived from regional climate model large ensemble

Abstract The western United States is dependent on winter snowfall over its major mountain ranges, which gradually melts each year, serving as a natural reservoir for water resources. In a future warmer climate, much of this snowfall could be replaced by rain, making it more challenging to capture and store water. In this study, we utilize an ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations forced by 14 global climate models (GCMs). These GCMs project wildly different futures, in terms of both temperature and precipitation change, producing significant uncertainty in snowfall projections. Here we exploit the robust statistics of the downscaled ensemble, and diagose the sensitivity of end-of-century snowfall loss across the region to both warming and regional wetting/drying in the driving GCM. The windward slopes of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades are particularly sensitive to warming (losing ~ 15% annual snowfall per degree warming), with little influence of precipitation. By contrast, snowfall loss in the inter-mountain west is less sensitive to warming (~ 5% K −1 ), but is significantly offset/exacerbated by precipitation changes (~ 0.5% snow per 1% precipitation). Combining such sensitivities with the warming and regional precipitation signals in the full CMIP6 ensemble, we can fully quantify likely snowfall loss and its uncertainty at any location, for any emissions scenario. We find that the western U.S. as a whole will lose 34 ± 8% of its total volumetric snowfall by end-of-century under the high-emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario, but 25 ± 6% and 17 ± 6% under the lower-emissions SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios.

Norris, Jesse (ORCID:0000000289883326)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Utah FORGE 5-2615: Thermo-poromechanical Response of Fractured Rock - Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Experimental Determination and Modeling-Informed Analysis of Thermo-poromechanical Response of Fractured Rock for Application to Utah FORGE project by the University of Oklahoma, presented by Dr. Ahmad Ghassemi, McCasland Chair Prof. The project objective is to improve understanding and control of coupled thermo-poromechanical (or thermo-hydro-mechanical- TPM) processes in reservoir development, and to study any role in interpretations of the fracture closure. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on September 8, 2023. The workshop provided a valuable opportunity to explore the progress made in each of the 17 Research and Development projects funded under Solicitation 2020-1 which aim to enhance our understanding of the crucial factors influencing the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) reservoirs and resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Generation of Weddell Sea Polynyas in a High-Resolution Earth System Model

Larger Weddell Sea polynyas (WSPs), differentiated in this study from the smaller Maud Rise Polynyas (MRPs), forming to the east of the prime meridian in the proximity of the Maud Rise seamount, have last been observed in the 1970s. We investigate WSPs that grow realistically out of MRPs in a high-resolution (HR) preindustrial simulation with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 0.1. The formation of MRPs requires HR to simulate the detailed flow around Maud Rise, while the realistic formation of WSPs requires a model to produce MRPs. Furthermore, WSPs tend to follow periods of a prolonged build-up of a heat reservoir at depth and weakly negative wind-stress curl in association with the core of the southern hemisphere westerlies at an anomalously northern position. While this scenario also leads to drier conditions over the central Weddell Sea, which some literature claims to be a necessary condition for the formation of WSPs, our model results indicate that open-ocean polynyas do not occur during periods of weakly negative wind-stress curl despite drier atmospheric conditions. Our study supports the hypothesis noted in earlier studies that a shift from a weakly negative to a strongly negative wind-stress curl over the Weddell Sea is a prerequisite for WSPs to form, together with a large heat reservoir at depth. However, the ultimate trigger is a pronounced MRP; whose associated convection creates high surface salinity anomalies that propagate westward with the flow of the Weddell Gyre. If large enough, these anomalies trigger the formation of a WSP and a pulse of newly formed Antarctic Bottom Water.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

LANL Activities on Mechanistic Approach to Analyzing and Improving Unconventional Hydrocarbon Production

Hydrocarbon production from shale reservoirs is inherently inefficient and challenging since these are low permeability plays. In addition, there is a limited understanding of the fundamentals and the controlling mechanisms, further complicating how to optimize these plays. Herein, we summarize our experimental and computational efforts fully and partially supported by the fundamental shale portfolio to reveal unconventional shale fundamentals and devise development strategies to enhance extraction efficiency with a minimal environmental footprint. Integrating these fundamentals with machine learning, we outline a pathway to improve the predictive power of our models, which enhances the forecast quality of production, thereby improving the economics of operations in unconventional reservoirs. For instance, we have developed science informed workflows and platforms for optimizing pressure-drawdown at a site, which allow operators to make reservoir-management decisions that optimize recovery in consideration of future production. Recently, our work relies on the hybridization of physics-based prediction and machine learning, whereby accurate synthetic data (combined with available site data) can enable the application of machine learning methods for rapid forecasting and optimization. Consequently, the workflow and platform are readily extendable to operations at other sites, plays, and basins.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic Ensemble Generation for Improved Characterization of Representing Geologic Variability in a Reservoir: IBDP Case Study for SMART Initiative

This document is a poster covering the findings from activities on training data generation, specifically geologic ensemble generation. The generated geologic realizations captured the range of possible permeability distributions of the subsurface at the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP) site, based on available well log variabilities. The percentages of reservoirs and baffles in the injection zone and a truncation of baffle permeability led to more variance in the simulations. This will be used to build forward modeling, history matching, and optimization workflows. The geologic realizations were also ranked according to dynamic measures of hydraulic diffusivity, and simulations confirm a greater contrast between the reservoir and the baffles during injection.

stochastic ensemble generation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enabling site-specific well leakage risk estimation during geologic carbon sequestration using a modular deep-learning-based wellbore leakage model

Geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is a promising technology for mitigating net carbon emissions and growing climate concern by storing CO 2 in reservoirs. Oil and gas brownfields are an attractive option for CO 2 storage, but these sites have many historical wellbores from petroleum production and can be a potential leakage pathway for CO 2 or formation brine. Therefore, risk management of GCS operations requires an assessment of potential well leakage. Due to the high uncertainty of the system, stochastic approaches are ideal for quantifying the range of risk behaviors, but they must be computationally efficient in the face of complex physics. Here, we develop a new physics-centric deep learning wellbore model to predict the leakage of CO 2 and brine through leaky wellbores. Multi-physics numerical simulations were used to generate data sets, and physics-informed features were introduced. Neural networks were optimized with an automated searching algorithm. Feature analysis quantifies the impact of each feature on model prediction and confirms the role of physics-inspired parameters. The model shows high predictive performance across a wide range of geologic and injection conditions and well attributes. In conclusion, a case study illustrates how the model is applied to assess well leakage in GCS operations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Geologic CO 2 Migration Pathways in Farnsworth Field, NW Anadarko Basin

This study reports on analyses of natural, geologic CO 2 migration paths in Farnsworth Oil Field, northern Texas, where CO 2 was injected into the Pennsylvanian Morrow B reservoir as part of enhanced oil recovery and carbon sequestration efforts. We interpret 2D and 3D seismic reflection datasets of the study site, which is located on the western flank of the Anadarko basin, and compare our seismic interpretations with results from a tracer study. Petroleum system models are developed to understand the petroleum system and petroleum- and CO 2 -migration pathways. We find no evidence of seismically resolvable faults in Farnsworth Field, but interpret a karst structure, erosional structures, and incised valleys. These interpretations are compared with results of a Morrow B well-to-well tracer study that suggests that inter-well flow is up-dip or lateral. Southeastward fluid flow is inhibited by dip direction, thinning, and draping of the Morrow B reservoir over a deeper, eroded formation. Petroleum system models predict a deep basin-ward increase in temperature and maturation of the source rocks. In the northwestern Anadarko Basin, petroleum migration was generally up-dip with local exceptions; the Morrow B sandstone was likely charged by formations both below and overlying the reservoir rock. Based on this analysis, we conclude that CO 2 escape in Farnsworth Field via geologic pathways such as tectonic faults is unlikely. Abandoned or aged wellbores remain a risk for CO 2 escape from the reservoir formation and deserve further monitoring and research.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of CO 2 trapping mechanisms in partially depleted oil-bearing sands

The goal of this work is to evaluate various CO 2 sequestration mechanisms occurring in the Morrow B Sandstone in the Farnsworth Unit. A history-matched numerical simulation model was created using extensive geological, petrophysical, and operational data collected from the field. The numerical model is competent to investigate the impact of residual, structural-stratigraphic, solubility, and mineral trapping mechanisms on the fluid transportation dynamics and petrophysical property variations. The model forecasts the field response of 20 years of WAG injections. Afterward, all wells were shut-in, and the reservoir was allowed to evolve for 1000 years to investigate the fate of injected CO 2 . In this paper, we assess the impacts of various trapping mechanisms on oil recovery and CO 2 storage efficacy. By analyzing the results reported from the numerical simulation model, the in-situ fluid composition and mineralogy changes are also investigated. More importantly, we seek to confirm the petrophysical property variations due to the CO 2 injection with observations from laboratory measurements. The experiences gained from this study provide valuable insights regarding physiochemical storage induced by the CO 2 injection activities and serve as a benchmark case for future CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects involving reactive solute transport.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Bayesian Deep Learning Approach to Near-Term Climate Prediction

Since model bias and associated initialization shock are serious shortcomings that reduce prediction skills in state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction efforts, we pursue a complementary machine-learning-based approach to climate prediction. The example problem setting we consider consists of predicting natural variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on the interannual timescale in the pre-industrial control simulation of the Community Earth System Model. While previous works have considered the use of recurrent networks such as convolutional LSTMs and reservoir computing networks in this and other similar problem settings, we currently focus on the use of feedforward convolutional networks. In particular, we find that a feedforward convolutional network with a Densenet architecture is able to outperform a convolutional LSTM in terms of predictive skill. Next, we go on to consider a probabilistic formulation of the same network based on Stein variational gradient descent and find that in addition to providing useful measures of predictive uncertainty, the probabilistic (Bayesian) version improves on its deterministic counterpart in terms of predictive skill. Finally, we characterize the reliability of the ensemble of machine learning models obtained in the probabilistic setting by using analysis tools developed in the context of ensemble numerical weather prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Real-Time and Adaptive Reservoir Computing With Application to Profile Prediction in Fusion Plasma

Nuclear fusion is a promising alternative to address the problem of sustainable energy production. The tokamak is an approach to fusion based on magnetic plasma confinement, constituting a complex physical system with many control challenges. Here we study the characteristics and optimization of reservoir computing (RC) for real-time and adaptive prediction of plasma profiles in the DIII-D tokamak. Our experiments demonstrate that RC achieves comparable results to state-of-the-art (deep) convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) models, with a significantly easier and faster training procedure. This efficient approach allows for fast and frequent adaptation of the model to new situations, such as changing plasma conditions or different fusion devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cost Model for Pumped Storage Hydropower Geomembrane Lining Systems

The Cost Model for Pumped Storage Hydropower Geomembrane Lining Systems offers an approximation of geomembrane lining system costs for pumped storage hydropower (PSH) reservoirs. Geomembrane lining systems have been used around the world for over 60 years for the construction of dams and reservoirs. Although geomembrane lining systems have found widespread use in the construction of canals and waste containment systems, they have not been utilized in the construction of new PSH facilities in the United States since the Mount Elbert PSH powerplant in Colorado. For this reason, PSH developers in the United States expressed the need for a tool that would allow them to estimate the costs of geomembrane lining systems for their PSH projects. To meet this need, the Cost Model for Pumped Storage Hydropower Geomembrane Lining Systems was developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory with support from Argonne National Laboratory and Stantec, Inc. This Cost Model will enable PSH developers to develop a preliminary estimate of the cost of geomembrane lining systems and to better understand different reservoir lining options and their cost and performance characteristics, thus enabling them to make informed decisions related to preferred reservoir lining systems for their PSH projects.

DeNeale, Scott [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fast permeability measurement for tight reservoir cores using only initial data of the one chamber pressure pulse decay test

Here, in this study, a mathematical model for fast determination of the permeabilities of tight rocks using measurements taken from the initial period of the One Chamber Pressure Pulse Decay (OC-PPD) test is presented. The model applies to measurements taken both before and after the pressure pulse front has reached the downstream end of the specimen. The analytical solutions for the pressure decay in the upstream chamber are derived based on a parabolic arc approximation of pore pressure distribution along the test specimen. This approximation allows converting the initial–boundary value problem of fluid diffusion in the specimen, governed by partial differential equations, to a system of ordinary differential equations that can be easily solved by explicit formulae. Thus, an explicit formula for the pressure decay rate is obtained, which enables inverse analysis of the initial experimental data to estimate the rock permeability. The proposed method expedites the pulse decay test as it does not require the system to reach equilibrium. The method is validated with three sets of experimental data of the OC-PPD test using helium as the diffusing fluid, for which the relative error of the permeability is found to be less than 6%. This method is particularly useful if the equilibrium time of the pulse decay test for rock specimens with permeabilities in the range of nano-Darcy takes hours or days.

early-time solution↗
DOE OSTI2024

Approaches for the Simulation of Coupled Processes in Evolving Fractured Porous Media Enabled by Exascale Computing

Models have historically represented fractured porous media with continuum descriptions that characterize the media using bulk parameters. The impact of small-scale features is not captured in these models, although they may be controlling the performance of subsurface applications. Pore-scale models can simulate processes in small-scale features by representing the pore space geometry explicitly but are computationally expensive for large domains. The alternative multiscale approach entails the combination of pore-scale and continuum-scale descriptions in a single framework. We use Chombo-Crunch, a computational capability that discretizes complex geometries with an adaptive, embedded boundary method to contrast these two approaches. Chombo-Crunch takes advantage of recent computational performance and memory bandwidth improvements resulting from the emergence of exascale computing resources. These combined improvements enable the efficient simulation of reactive transport in fractured media with a high degree of fidelity and the ability to capture the control small-scale processes exert on the overall medium evolution.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Powersheds

Powersheds is an open scientific software project for simulating river–reservoir cascades. It combines the performance of Rust with a friendly Python interface to model storage, pool elevation, head, releases, spills, routing lags, and power generation at hourly resolution. Designed for coupling with power-system models, simulations are driven by plant-level target power schedules and report realized generation after accounting for hydrologic and operational constraints.

Turner, Sean [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Center for the Geologic Storage of CO 2 (GSCO2) (Final Report)

The Center for Geologic Storage of CO2 (GSCO2) focuses on basic-science approaches to recognized industry and technology challenges for commercial deployment of carbon dioxide (CO2) storage in clastic reservoirs. With this focus, the GSCO2 strives to generate new conceptual, mathematical, and numerical models applicable to geologic storage systems in specific and strategically identified research areas. Over the four-year research period (plus two-year no-cost extension), the GSCO2 developed its focus on one central research question: What is the mechanism of injection-induced microseismicity, and can we control and predict its occurrence?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chemical controls on the propagation and healing of subcritical fractures

Human activities involving subsurface reservoirs—resource extraction, carbon and nuclear waste storage—alter thermal, mechanical, and chemical steady-state conditions in these systems. Because these systems exist at lithostatic pressures, even minor chemical changes can cause chemically assisted deformation. Therefore, understanding how chemical effects control geomechanical properties is critical to optimizing engineering activities. The grand challenge in predicting the effect of chemical processes on mechanical properties lays in the fact that these phenomena take place at molecular scales, while they manifest all the way to reservoir scales. To address this fundamental challenge, we investigated chemical effects on deformation in model and real systems spanning molecular- to centimeter scales. We used theory, experiment, molecular dynamics simulation, and statistical analysis to (1) identify the effect of simple reactions, such as hydrolysis, on molecular structures in interfacial regions of stressed geomaterials; (2) quantify chemical effects on the bulk mechanical properties, fracture and displacement for granular rocks and single crystals; (3) develop initial understanding of universal scaling for individual displacement events in layered geomaterials; and (4) develop analytic approximations for the single-chain mechanical response utilizing asymptotically correct statistical thermodynamic theory. Taken together, these findings advance the challenging field of chemo-mechanics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗