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At least 541 records · Page 30

Examining conditions supporting the development of anomalous charge structures in supercell thunderstorms in the Southeastern United States

Hypotheses regarding favorable conditions for anomalous charging have primarily resulted from studies within the Great Plains region of the United States, where the efficiency of warm precipitation processes is thought to be fundamental. Rare observations of anomalous charge structures in the Southeastern region challenge existing conceptual models used to explain anomalous charging. As a rigorous evaluation of conditions that support anomalous charge structures, environmental characteristics and bulk kinematic and microphysical properties of two normal and two anomalous supercell thunderstorms observed in the Southeast were compared in this paper. Within the anomalous supercells, greater quantities of precipitation ice were identified at higher altitudes and colder temperatures, suggesting a greater depth of riming growth and increased vertical transport of rimed hydrometeors. Deeper anomalous supercell updrafts were larger and stronger in the upper mixed-phase and glaciated regions. However, normal supercells were characterized by more robust low-level updrafts, resulting in comparable warm cloud residence times that suggested warm precipitation processes were not necessarily less efficient in the anomalous supercells. Indications of enhanced mixed-phase liquid water content in favor of anomalous charging were observed in the anomalous supercells, though contrasts in related environmental parameters were not as large as observed in other comparative studies. Anomalous supercell environments were characterized by increased instability, shallower warm cloud depth, as well as lower relative humidity in the 700 mb to 500 mb layer. Evidence of impacts from dry air in anomalous storm structures suggested that water vapor content may have affected particle-scale charge transfer in support of anomalous charge structure development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Coupled Feedbacks in the Decadal Variability of the Southern Hemisphere Eddy-Driven Jet

The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Additionally, Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ice Nucleating Particle Connections to Regional Argentinian Land Surface Emissions and Weather During the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions Experiment

Abstract Here, we present a multi‐season study of ice‐nucleating particles (INPs) active via the immersion freezing mechanism, which took place in north‐central Argentina, a worldwide hotspot for mesoscale convective storms. INPs were measured untreated, after heating to 95°C, and after hydrogen peroxide digestion. No seasonal cycle of INP concentrations was observed. Heat labile INPs, which we define as “biological” herein, dominated the population active at −5 to −20°C, while non‐heat‐labile organic INPs (decomposed by peroxide) dominated at lower temperatures, from −20 to −28°C. Inorganic INPs (remaining after peroxide digestion), were minor contributors to the overall INP activity. Biological INP concentration active around −12°C peaked during rain events and under high relative humidity, reflecting emission mechanisms independent of the background aerosol concentration. The ratio of non‐heat‐labile organic and inorganic INPs was generally constant, suggesting they originated from the same source, presumably from regional arable topsoil based on air mass histories. Single particle mass spectrometry showed that soil particles aerosolized from a regionally common agricultural topsoil contained known mineral INP sources (K‐feldspar and illite) as well as a significant organic component. The INP activity observed in this study correlates well with agricultural soil INP activities from this and other regions of the world, suggesting that the observed INP spectra might be typical of many arable landscapes. These results demonstrate the strong influence of regional continental landscapes, emitting INPs of types that are not yet well represented in global models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Amazonian Moisture Recycling Revisited Using WRF With Water Vapor Tracers

Previous studies have estimated that 25%–35% of Amazonian precipitation comes from evapotranspiration (ET) within the basin. However, due to simplifying assumptions of traditional models, these studies primarily focus on large spatial and temporal scales. This study is the first to analyze the moisture of Amazonian origin at the annual to daily timescale in four different subregions of the Amazon. We analyze the sources, sinks and stores of moisture that originates as Amazonian ET. To do this, we use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) regional meteorological model with the added capability of water vapor tracers to track this moisture. Moisture of Amazonian origin shows strong annual and semi-annual signals, with contrasting behavior between the northern and southern parts of the basin. The tracers reveal a strong diurnal cycle of Amazonian water vapor which had not been previously reported. This signal is related to the diurnal cycle of ET, convective precipitation and advected moisture. ET's contribution to atmospheric moisture increases from early morning into the afternoon. Some of this moisture is rained out through convective storms in the early evening. Later in the night and following morning, strong winds associated with the South American Low Level Jet advect moisture downwind. Overall, the beating pattern becomes apparent when visualizing the Amazonian water vapor as an animation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Illumination of Thunderclouds by Lightning: 1. The Extent and Altitude of Optical Lightning Sources

Abstract Optical space‐based lightning sensors including NOAA's Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) detect lightning though its transient illumination of the surrounding clouds. What space‐based optical lightning sensors measure is influenced by the physical attributes of the light source, the location of the source within the cloud scene, and the spatial variations in cloud composition. We focus on the lightning channels that serve as optical sources for GLM groups and flashes in this first part of our thundercloud illumination study. We match Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) sources with GLM groups and flashes during two thunderstorms to examine channel segments that are active during optical emission. We find that in each storm, the LMA sources matched with GLM groups are small (median: 3 km) compared to GLM pixels (nominal: 8 km), and preferentially come from high altitudes in the cloud (>8–10 km). The detection advantage for high‐altitude sources permits GLM to resolve faint optical pulses near the cloud top that might be missed from lower altitudes. However, the most energetic groups can be detected from all altitudes, and the largest groups largely originate at low altitudes. The relationship between group energy and illuminated area depends on flash development within the cloud medium, and flash development into different cloud regions can be identified by tracking GLM metrics of cloud illumination over time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Two–Dimensional Idealized Hadley Circulation Simulation for Global High Resolution Model Development

A new framework for the development of global high resolution models using a vertical- meridional, two-dimensional pole-to-pole domain is proposed. Compared with the three-dimensional global model, the two-dimensional framework can simulate cloud-scale convection at significantly reduced computational cost, data volume, and turn-around time, and accelerate the development phase. Although idealized, it allows for simulation of various clouds and scale interactions under a wide range of environmental conditions, even though zonal waves such as mid latitude storms cannot be simulated. Physics schemes can be tested and assessed over a full array of simultaneously occurring cloud regimes. The framework can serve as an intermediate step between a one-dimensional simulation and a full three-dimensional global model. Using this framework, we analyze the resolution dependencies of simulated clouds and the Hadley circulation in a range of global high resolution models by performing multiple 1000-day simulations; for some resolutions tested, for example, 2 km horizontal resolution, three-dimensional simulation is not feasible at the present time. Analysis shows that both horizontal and vertical resolution determine the properties of the Hadley circulation and clouds, and that the differences among the simulated Hadley circulations are understood as differences in scale interactions influenced by resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Impact of Sudden Commencements on Ground Magnetic Field Variability: Immediate and Delayed Consequences

Abstract We examine how Sudden Commencements (SCs) and Storm Sudden Commencements (SSCs) influence the occurrence of high rates of change of the magnetic field ( R ) as a function of geomagnetic latitude. These rapid, high amplitude variations in the ground‐level geomagnetic field pose a significant risk to ground infrastructure, such as power networks, as the drivers of geomagnetically induced currents. We find that rates of change of ∼30 nT min −1 at near‐equatorial stations are up to 700 times more likely in an SC than in any random interval. This factor decreases with geomagnetic latitude such that rates of change around 30 nT min −1 are only up to 10 times more likely by 65°. At equatorial latitudes we find that 25% of all R in excess of 50 nT min −1 occurs during SCs. This percentage also decreases with geomagnetic latitude, reaching ≤1% by 55°. However, the time period from the SC to 3 days afterward accounts for ≥90% of geomagnetic field fluctuations over 50 nT min −1 , up to ∼60° latitude. Above 60°, other phenomena such as isolated substorms account for the majority of large R . Furthermore, the elevated rates of change observed during and after SCs are solely due to those classified as SSCs. These results show that SSCs are the predominant risk events for large R at mid and low latitudes, but that the risk from the SC itself decreases with latitude.

Smith, Andrew W.↗

FORTE Measurements of Global Lightning Altitudes

While multiple lightning detection systems provide geographical locations of lightning events across the globe, robust lightning altitude measurements on a global scale have proven elusive. Space-based platforms have an advantageous viewing geometry for making these measurements, but prior studies with the Fast On-orbit Recording of Transient Events (FORTE) satellite were limited to a few thousand events. In this study, we apply the same technique for calculating source altitude from the previous efforts to a large catalog of hundreds of thousands of global FORTE in-cloud lightning events that were coincident with flashes geolocated by its lightning imager between 1997 and 2003. We use this new data set to document global variations in lightning altitude. As in previous studies, we find that FORTE primarily resolves sources from the upper (positive) charge layer at ~11 km altitude in normal thunderstorms. However, sources are also recorded from other charge layers in the storm and from leaders developing between layers. In particular, we note a pronounced increase in source altitude in the first 20 ms of FORTE flashes from the negative leader developing upward into the upper positive charge layer. Regions known for wintertime and/or stratiform lightning have increased contributions from low-altitude sources, while tropical regions particularly around Panama and the Maritime Continent have the greatest concentrations of high-altitude sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Connecting Large‐Scale Meteorological Patterns to Extratropical Cyclones in CMIP6 Climate Models Using Self‐Organizing Maps

Abstract Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are responsible for the majority of cool‐season extreme events in the northeastern United States (NEUS), often leading to high‐impact weather conditions that can have wide‐ranging socioeconomic impacts. Evaluating the ability of climate models to adequately simulate ETC dynamics is essential for improving model performance and increasing confidence in future projections used by stakeholders and policymakers. ETCs are traditionally studied using techniques such as case studies and synoptic typing, however, these approaches can be time‐consuming, require subjective analysis, and do not necessarily identify the coincident large‐scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Here, we apply self‐organizing maps (SOMs) as an automated machine‐learning approach to characterize the LSMPs and associated frequency and intensity of discrete ETC events over NEUS. The dominant patterns of geopotential height variability are identified through SOM analysis of five reanalysis products during the last four decades. ETC events are tracked using TempestExtremes and are integrated with SOMs to classify the accumulated cyclone activity (ACA) associated with each pattern. We then evaluate the skill of CMIP6 historical experiments in simulating the LSMPs and ETC events identified in the SOM. Our results identify a robust bias toward more zonal patterns, with models struggling to reproduce the more amplified patterns typically associated with the highest cyclone activity. While model resolution has some impact on simulation credibility, model configuration appears to be more important in LSMP representation. The vast majority of CMIP6 models produce too few ETCs, although model errors are distributed around historical reanalyses when ACA is normalized by storm frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Rainfall on Tropical Cyclone-Induced Sea Surface Cooling

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are often accompanied by strong winds and torrential rains. While the winds associated with TCs tend to enhance mixing in the upper-ocean, the freshwater input from rain can stratify the water column and limit mixing. However, the extent to which the stabilizing effect of rainfall can compete with wind-induced mixing, and to what degree it modulates TC-induced sea surface cooling, remains unknown. Here we show, using a suite of observations, that heavy rains under weak TCs can significantly reduce the magnitude of cold wakes induced by them. Additionally, when compared to storms with low rain rates, the ocean surface under TCs with high rain rates freshens significantly and cools less. High-resolution climate model simulations and idealized experiments with an ocean mixed layer model support these results and reveal that oceanic mixing processes are primarily responsible for the reduced cooling under TCs, with a lesser role for surface fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interplay of River and Tidal Forcings Promotes Loops in Coastal Channel Networks

We report the dense populations that inhabit global coastlines have an uncertain future due to increased flooding, storms, and human modification. The channel networks of deltas and marshes that plumb these coastlines present diverse architectures, including well-studied dendritic topologies. However, the quasi-stable loops that exist in nearly all coastal networks have not yet been explained. We present a model for self-organizing networks inspired by vascular biophysics to show that loops emerge when the relative forcings between rivers and tides are comparable, resulting in interplay between hydrodynamic forcings at short time scales relative to network evolution. Using field data and satellite imaging, we confirm this control on 21 field networks. Our comparison provides compelling evidence that hydrodynamic fluctuations are capable of stabilizing loops in geophysical systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating the Physical Drivers for the Increasing Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard in the United States

In this study, we investigate both the changes of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall hazard in the United States under climate change and the relative importance of the factors that cause the changes. We find that under the SSP5 8.5 scenario, the 100-year TC rainfall level can increase by up to 320% along the U.S. coastline by the end of this century. The influence of TC rainfall-producing ability increase is more significant than the influence of TC frequency increase on the increase of the 100-year TC rainfall level (up to 180% vs. 60% increase). Among the different physical drivers for the increase in storm rainfall-producing ability, the increase of TC intensity is the leading factor, followed by changes in TC duration and atmospheric temperature. The projected increase of TC rainfall hazard is robust against the uncertainty in the TC frequency projection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatiotemporal Controls on the Delivery of Dissolved Organic Matter to Streams Following a Wildfire

Warmer and drier climate has contributed to increased occurrence of large, high severity wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, drawing concerns for water quality and ecosystem recovery. While nutrient fluxes generally increase post-fire, the composition of organic matter (OM) transported to streams immediately following a fire is poorly constrained, yet can play an integral role in downstream water quality and biogeochemistry. Here, we quantified the spatiotemporal patterns of dissolved OM (DOM) chemistry for five streams burned by wildfires in Oregon, USA in 2020. We sampled over a 24-hour storm event one month after the fire, revealing variable temporal behavior in DOM dynamics. DOM chemistry was directly related with burn severity spatially. Specifically, nitrogen and aromatic character of DOM increased in streams burned at greater severity. Our results suggest a spatial overprinting of DOM dynamics immediately following fire activity and highlight a key gap in our knowledge of post-fire DOM transport to streams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrologic Connectivity and Patch‐To‐Hillslope Scale Relations in Dryland Ecosystems

Abstract In drylands, runoff during storms redistributes water and nutrients from bare soil areas to vegetated patches, subsidizing vegetation with additional resources. The extent of this redistribution depends on the interplay between surface roughness and permeability; greater permeability in vegetated patches promotes run‐on to vegetation, but greater surface roughness diverts runoff, producing tortuous flow paths that bypass vegetation. Here, this interplay is examined in virtual experiments using the 2D Saint Venant Equations to measure runoff connectivity. Flowpaths are delineated using tracers advected by the flow. Distances between tracer sources and sinks along flowpaths measure hydrologic connectivity at two lengthscales: connectivity to the hillslope outlet and within‐slope source‐sink connectivity. Differences between these connectivity lengthscales indicate how flow may “by‐pass” vegetated patches within hillslopes. At the hillslope scale, a derived power‐law relation between the runoff coefficient and outlet connectivity describes hillslope water losses, providing a foundation for identifying landscapes likely to shed water.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ENSO Diversity and the Simulation of Its Teleconnections to Winter Precipitation Extremes Over the US in High Resolution Earth System Models

Abstract Accounting for the diversity in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)'s spatial pattern, with the novel ENSO longitudinal index (ELI), we evaluate the simulation of its teleconnections to US winter precipitation extremes by seven global high‐resolution (HR) Earth System Models (ESM). Six (four) HR ESMs simulate the observed increase in precipitation extremes over Southwest US (Southeast US) during ELI‐defined El Niño events better than their low‐resolution counterparts, which are low‐biased. The stronger ENSO‐dependence over the Southwest US and Southeast US in those models is associated with an improved simulation of moisture flux into the regions and/or storm track activity there. HR ESMs, however, generally overestimate the increase in precipitation extremes over the Pacific‐Northwest during La Niña events. Model bias there is associated with bias in moisture transport into the region during La Niña events, which is amplified by the enhanced vertical mass fluxes in HR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Contributions to Loss Across the Magnetopause During an Electron Dropout Event

Abstract Dropout events are dramatic decreases in radiation belt electron populations that can occur in as little as 30 minutes. Loss to magnetopause due to a combination of magnetopause shadowing and outward radial transport plays a significant role in these events. We examine the dropout of relativistic electron populations during the October 2012 geomagnetic storm using simulated electron phase space density, evaluating the contribution of different processes to losses across the magnetopause. We compare loss contribution from outward transport calculated using a standard empirical radial diffusion model that assumes a dipolar geomagnetic field to an event‐specific radial diffusion model evaluated with a non‐dipolar geomagnetic field. We additionally evaluate the contribution of Shabansky type 1 particles, which bounce along magnetic field lines with local equatorial maxima, to the loss calculated during this event. We find that the empirical radial diffusion model with a dipolar background field underestimates the contribution of radial diffusion to this dropout event by up to 10% when compared to the event‐specific, non‐dipolar radial diffusion model. We additionally find that including Shabansky type 1 particles in the initial electron phase space density, that is, allowing some magnetic field lines distorted from the typical single‐minima configuration in drift shell construction, increases the calculated loss by an average of 0.75%. This shows that the treatment of the geomagnetic field significantly impacts the calculation of electron losses to the magnetopause during dropout events, with the non‐dipolar treatment of radial diffusion being essential to accurately quantify the loss of outer radiation belt populations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Potential Weakening of the June 2012 North American Derecho Under Future Warming Conditions

Derechos produce widespread and long-lived damaging wind, causing severe life and property loss. Here, this study investigates how the June 2012 North American derecho could unfold in the future with global warming. Convection-permitting regional model simulations of the derecho as observed are compared with simulations under a pseudo global warming scenario of the future environments by the end of the 21st century following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5). The control simulations can well reproduce the observed derecho features, including storm evolution, surface wind, and precipitation, except for a 2-hour delay relative to observations. Compared to the control simulations, the derecho shrinks and decays earlier in the future environments, with much less destructive impacts on the Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. The shrinkage of the derecho is attributed to the lower relative humidity on both sides of the derecho propagation path under global warming, which suppresses updraft and strengthens downdraft, impeding the spatial extent of the derecho. The premature decay is due to the intensification of an isolated deep convection (IDC) event that develops ahead of the derecho. The meridional gradient of future warming strengthens the synoptic environments, enhancing convergence in a corridor of higher instability that facilitates intensification and continuous development of the IDC event. By consuming most of the energy and moisture on the derecho propagation path, the IDC hinders the derecho development in the Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. Focusing on a single derecho event, this study reveals how changes in the thermodynamic environment with warming could induce complex changes in the derecho.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Convective Vortices and Dust Devils Detected and Characterized by Mars 2020

Abstract We characterize vortex and dust devils (DDs) at Jezero from pressure and winds obtained with the Mars Environmental Dynamics Analyzer (MEDA) instrument on Mars 2020 over 415 Martian days (sols) ( Ls = 6°–213°). Vortices are abundant (4.9 per sol with pressure drops >0.5 Pa correcting from gaps in coverage) and they peak at noon. At least one in every five vortices carries dust, and 75% of all vortices with Δ p > 2.0 Pa are dusty. Seasonal variability was small but DDs were abundant during a dust storm ( Ls = 152°–156°). Vortices are more frequent and intense over terrains with lower thermal inertia favoring high daytime surface‐to‐air temperature gradients. We fit measurements of winds and pressure during DD encounters to models of vortices. We obtain vortex diameters that range from 5 to 135 m with a mean of 20 m, and from the frequency of close encounters we estimate a DD activity of 2.0–3.0 DDs km −2 sol −1 . A comparison of MEDA observations with a Large Eddy Simulation of Jezero at Ls = 45° produces a similar result. Three 100‐m size DDs passed within 30 m of the rover from what we estimate that the activity of DDs with diameters >100 m is 0.1 DDs km −2 sol −1 , implying that dust lifting is dominated by the largest vortices in Jezero. At least one vortex had a central pressure drop of 9.0 Pa and internal winds of 25 ms −1 . The MEDA wind sensors were partially damaged during two DD encounters whose characteristics we elaborate in detail.

Hueso, R.↗