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At least 541 records · Page 30

Comparison of Passive Microwave-Derived Early Melt Onset Records on Arctic Sea Ice

Two long records of melt onset (MO) on Arctic sea ice from passive microwave brightness temperatures (Tbs) obtained by a series of satellite-borne instruments are compared. The Passive Microwave (PMW) method and Advanced Horizontal Range Algorithm (AHRA) detect the increase in emissivity that occurs when liquid water develops around snow grains at the onset of early melting on sea ice. The timing of MO on Arctic sea ice influences the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the ice-ocean system throughout the melt season by reducing surface albedos in the early spring. This work presents a thorough comparison of these two methods for the time series of MO dates from 1979through 2012. The methods are first compared using the published data as a baseline comparison of the publically available data products. A second comparison is performed on adjusted MO dates we produced to remove known differences in inter-sensor calibration of Tbs and masking techniques used to develop the original MO date products. These adjustments result in a more consistent set of input Tbs for the algorithms. Tests of significance indicate that the trends in the time series of annual mean MO dates for the PMW and AHRA are statistically different for the majority of the Arctic Ocean including the Laptev, E. Siberian, Chukchi, Beaufort, and central Arctic regions with mean differences as large as 38.3 days in the Barents Sea. Trend agreement improves for our more consistent MO dates for nearly all regions. Mean differences remain large, primarily due to differing sensitivity of in-algorithm thresholds and larger uncertainties in thin-ice regions.

sea ice↗

The CLASSY clustering algorithm: Description, evaluation, and comparison with the iterative self-organizing clustering system (ISOCLS)

A clustering method, CLASSY, was developed, which alternates maximum likelihood iteration with a procedure for splitting, combining, and eliminating the resulting statistics. The method maximizes the fit of a mixture of normal distributions to the observed first through fourth central moments of the data and produces an estimate of the proportions, means, and covariances in this mixture. The mathematical model which is the basic for CLASSY and the actual operation of the algorithm is described. Data comparing the performances of CLASSY and ISOCLS on simulated and actual LACIE data are presented.

Lennington, R. K.↗

Simultaneous prediction of structural properties in epitaxially–grown GaN with quantum and conventional multi–output learning algorithms

Hundreds of GaN thin film crystal plasma–assisted molecular beam epitaxy synthesis experiment records spanning two decades were organized into a dataset correlating the growth experiment design parameters with discrete, binary determinations of crystallinity and surface morphology. Conventional data science techniques as well as both quantum and classical multi–output supervised machine learning algorithms were implemented to investigate the relationships between the operating parameter data and the structural figures of merit. Correlation coefficients, decision tree nodes, p–values, and SHAP values all support substrate temperature and gallium effusion cell conditions as being statistically significant for simultaneously influencing GaN crystallinity and surface morphology. Here, a conventional deep neural network learned best from the data, followed by a quantum–classical hybrid gradient boosting algorithm. When combined with calculations of uncertainty intervals based on VennAbers predictors, machine learning predictions of both structural properties show good agreement with results reported in published experimental literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Formulation and implementation of a practical algorithm for non-stationary adaptive state estimation

Background information on the Kalman filter is given first. A discussion of the filter parameters and their a priori determination follows. The discussion points out the need for adaptive determination of the process noise statistics. The filter innovations are presented as a means for developing the adaptive criteria. The criteria center around the estimation of the true mean and covariance of the filter innovations. A method for the numerical approximation of the mean and covariance of a locally stationary random process is presented. The definition of a local stationarity is presented. Local stationarity allows for the separation of the process statistics into a stationary component and a time-varying component. The separation method is discussed. A method for estimating the stationary and time-varying components is presented. As an example of its application to real problems, the algorithm is applied to the problem to the problem of reentry trajectory estimation for the Space Shuttle. Both the adaptive algorithm and the steady-state Kalman filter are applied to the problem. The results of the reconstructions are presented. The adaptive algorithm exhibits superior performance.

Whitemore, S. A.↗

Generalized master equation for particle transport in binary random media with renewal statistics

Particle transport in binary stochastic mixtures is classically modeled assuming Markovian or exponential mixing statistics but in many applications material memory invalidates the Markov assumption. For non-Markovian mixing characterized by alternating renewal processes, a transport-theoretic framework is presented that provides an exact description of transport in nonscattering random binary media with general non-exponential statistics. Our approach is to Markovianize the problem by augmenting the {material type, particle flux} state space with the age or distance from the last interface. A Chapman-Kolmogorov equation is formulated for the joint probability density of the material type, particle flux, and age, and subsequently reduced to a generalized Master equation (GME) in differential form. This constitutes the primary result of this work. A state-updating Monte Carlo algorithm consistent with the GME is developed and benchmarked against analytical solutions for multiple chord-length laws. For purely absorbing renewal statistical media, the GME reproduces analytical benchmarks for the equilibrium age distribution, interior mean/variance of material-conditioned fluxes, and boundary transmittance. Simulations further demonstrate that a Markov (exponential) approximation of non-exponential statistics can introduce large errors in transmittance and interior flux profiles. Lastly, the reintroduction of memory due to scattering is briefly addressed through heuristic considerations.

Fluctuations & noise↗

Broadcasting satellite service synthesis using gradient and cyclic coordinate search procedures

Two search techniques are considered for solving satellite synthesis problems. Neither is likely to find a globally optimal solution. In order to determine which method performs better and what factors affect their performance, we design an experiment and solve the same problem under a variety of starting solution configuration-algorithm combinations. Since there is no randomization in the experiment, we present results of practical, rather than statistical, significance. Our implementation of a cyclic coordinate search procedure clearly finds better synthesis solutions than our implementation of a gradient search procedure does with our objective of maximizing the minimum C/I ratio computed at test points on the perimeters of the intended service areas. The length of the available orbital arc and the configuration of the starting solution are shown to affect the quality of the solutions found.

Reilly, C. H.↗

Retrospective Data Assimilation for GEOS-4

The NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System 3 (GEOS-3) has recently been replaced operationally by GEOS-4. One of the major components of the new system is the finite-volume general circulation model (GCM) of Lin and Rood. Updating the GEOS-3 retrospective data assimilation system of Zhu et al. to GEOS-4 requires two main steps: (i) developing the adjoint of the finite-volume GCM; and (ii) developing the adjoint of the procedures interfacing the GCM with the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System. These required adjoints are being developed automatically through the use of the Transformation of Algorithms in Fortran compiler of Giering and Kaminski. In this presentation we discuss the current status of development and plans for the near future as well as show preliminary results.

Todling, Ricardo↗

On-Orbit Multi-Field Wavefront Control with a Kalman Filter

A document describes a multi-field wavefront control (WFC) procedure for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) on-orbit optical telescope element (OTE) fine-phasing using wavefront measurements at the NIRCam pupil. The control is applied to JWST primary mirror (PM) segments and secondary mirror (SM) simultaneously with a carefully selected ordering. Through computer simulations, the multi-field WFC procedure shows that it can reduce the initial system wavefront error (WFE), as caused by random initial system misalignments within the JWST fine-phasing error budget, from a few dozen micrometers to below 50 nm across the entire NIRCam Field of View, and the WFC procedure is also computationally stable as the Monte-Carlo simulations indicate. With the incorporation of a Kalman Filter (KF) as an optical state estimator into the WFC process, the robustness of the JWST OTE alignment process can be further improved. In the presence of some large optical misalignments, the Kalman state estimator can provide a reasonable estimate of the optical state, especially for those degrees of freedom that have a significant impact on the system WFE. The state estimate allows for a few corrections to the optical state to push the system towards its nominal state, and the result is that a large part of the WFE can be eliminated in this step. When the multi-field WFC procedure is applied after Kalman state estimate and correction, the stability of fine-phasing control is much more certain. Kalman Filter has been successfully applied to diverse applications as a robust and optimal state estimator. In the context of space-based optical system alignment based on wavefront measurements, a KF state estimator can combine all available wavefront measurements, past and present, as well as measurement and actuation error statistics to generate a Maximum-Likelihood optimal state estimator. The strength and flexibility of the KF algorithm make it attractive for use in real-time optical system alignment when WFC alone cannot effectively align the system.

Lou, John↗

The RHESSI Microflare Height Distribution

We present the first in-depth statistical survey of flare source heights observed by RHESSI. Flares were found using a flare-finding algorithm designed to search the 6-10 keV count-rate when RHESSI's full sensitivity was available in order to find the smallest events (Christe et al., 2008). Between March 2002 and March 2007, a total of 25,006 events were found. Source locations were determined in the 4-10 keV, 10-15 keV, and 15-30 keV energy ranges for each event. In order to extract the height distribution from the observed projected source positions, a forward-fit model was developed with an assumed source height distribution where height is measured from the photosphere. We find that the best flare height distribution is given by g (h) oc exp(-h/lambda) where lambda = 6.1 plus or minus 0.3 Mm is the scale height. A power law height distribution with a negative power law index, gamma = 3.1 plus or minus 0.3 is also consistent with the data. Interpreted as thermal loop top sources, these heights are compared to loops generated by a potential field model (PFSS). The measured flare heights distribution are found to be much steeper than the potential field loop height distribution which may be a signature of the flare energization process.

Christe, P.↗

Operational Detection of Sun Glints in DSCOVR EPIC Images

Satellite images often feature sun glints caused by the specular reflection of sunlight from water surfaces or from horizontally oriented ice crystals occurring in clouds. Such glints can prevent accurate retrievals of atmospheric and surface properties using existing algorithms, but the glints can also be used to infer more about the glint-causing objects—for example about the microphysical properties and radiative effects of ice clouds. This paper introduces the recently released operational glint product of the Earth Polychromatic Camera (EPIC) onboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) spacecraft. Most importantly, the paper describes the algorithm used for generating the key component of the new product: a glint mask indicating the presence of sun glint caused by the specular reflection of sunlight from ice clouds and smooth water surfaces. After describing the glint detection algorithm and glint product, the paper shows some examples of the detected glints and discusses some basic statistics of the glint population in a yearlong dataset of EPIC images. These statistics provide insights into the performance of glint detection and point toward possibilities for using the glint product to gain scientific insights about ice clouds and water surfaces.

DSCOVR↗

Formulation and implementation of nonstationary adaptive estimation algorithm with applications to air-data reconstruction

The dynamics model and data sources used to perform air-data reconstruction are discussed, as well as the Kalman filter. The need for adaptive determination of the noise statistics of the process is indicated. The filter innovations are presented as a means of developing the adaptive criterion, which is based on the true mean and covariance of the filter innovations. A method for the numerical approximation of the mean and covariance of the filter innovations is presented. The algorithm as developed is applied to air-data reconstruction for the space shuttle, and data obtained from the third landing are presented. To verify the performance of the adaptive algorithm, the reconstruction is also performed using a constant covariance Kalman filter. The results of the reconstructions are compared, and the adaptive algorithm exhibits better performance.

Whitmore, S. A.↗

Formulation and implementation of nonstationary adaptive estimation algorithm with applications to air-data reconstruction

The dynamics model and data sources used to perform air-data reconstruction are discussed, as well as the Kalman filter. The need for adaptive determination of the noise statistics of the process is indicated. The filter innovations are presented as a means of developing the adaptive criterion, which is based on the true mean and covariance of the filter innovations. A method for the numerical approximation of the mean and covariance of the filter innovations is presented. The algorithm as developed is applied to air-data reconstruction for the Space Shuttle, and data obtained from the third landing are presented. To verify the performance of the adaptive algorithm, the reconstruction is also performed using a constant covariance Kalman filter. The results of the reconstructions are compared, and the adaptive algorithm exhibits better performance.

Whitmore, S. A.↗

Satellite Data Sets in the Polar Regions

We have generated about two decades of consistently derived geophysical parameters in the polar regions. The key parameters are sea ice concentration, surface temperature, albedo, and cloud cover statistics. Sea ice concentrations were derived from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) data and the Special Scanning Cl Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data from several platforms using the enhanced Bootstrap Algorithm for the period 1978 through 1999. The new algorithm reduces the errors associated with spatial and temporal variations in the emissivity and surface temperatures of sea ice. Also, bad data at ocean/land interfaces are identified and deleted in an unsupervised manner. Surface ice temperature, albedo and cloud cover statistics are derived simultaneously from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data from 1981 through 1999 and mapped at a higher resolution but the same format as the ice concentration data. The technique makes use these co-registered ice concentration maps to enable cloud masking to be done separately for open ocean, sea ice and land areas. The effect of inversion is minimized by taking into consideration the expected changes in the effect of inversion with altitude, especially in the Antarctic. A technique for ice type regional classification has also been developed using multichannel cluster analysis and a neural network. This provide a means to identify large areas of thin ice, first year ice, and older ice types. The data sets have been shown to be coherent with each other and provide a powerful tool for in depth studies of the currently changing Arctic and Antarctic environment.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

Algorithms for Spectral Decomposition with Applications to Optical Plume Anomaly Detection

The analysis of spectral signals for features that represent physical phenomenon is ubiquitous in the science and engineering communities. There are two main approaches that can be taken to extract relevant features from these high-dimensional data streams. The first set of approaches relies on extracting features using a physics-based paradigm where the underlying physical mechanism that generates the spectra is used to infer the most important features in the data stream. We focus on a complementary methodology that uses a data-driven technique that is informed by the underlying physics but also has the ability to adapt to unmodeled system attributes and dynamics. We discuss the following four algorithms: Spectral Decomposition Algorithm (SDA), Non-Negative Matrix Factorization (NMF), Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and compare their performance on a spectral emulator which we use to generate artificial data with known statistical properties. This spectral emulator mimics the real-world phenomena arising from the plume of the space shuttle main engine and can be used to validate the results that arise from various spectral decomposition algorithms and is very useful for situations where real-world systems have very low probabilities of fault or failure. Our results indicate that methods like SDA and NMF provide a straightforward way of incorporating prior physical knowledge while NMF with a tuning mechanism can give superior performance on some tests. We demonstrate these algorithms to detect potential system-health issues on data from a spectral emulator with tunable health parameters.

Srivastava, Askok N.↗

Statistical Descriptors of Composite Fiber Aggregation

This study introduces a method of characterizing fiber aggregation and resin rich regions in composite microstructures. Microscale models of representative elements (RVE) need to be indicative of the extend of clustering (i.e. close fiber-to-fiber interaction) and resin rich “pools” which may impact the overall strength and performance of a composite structure. This algorithm was used to evaluate different unidirectional 2-D microstructure scans, which will be compared to their manufacturing method or any special treatment processes. These cluster and pool scan statistics can be used as criteria to judge statistical equivalency of artificially constructed microstructures.

Statistics↗

Exploring the fragmentation efficiency of proteins analyzed by MALDI-TOF-TOF tandem mass spectrometry using computational and statistical analyses

Matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight-time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF-TOF) tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) is a rapid technique for identifying intact proteins from unfractionated mixtures by top-down proteomic analysis. MS/MS allows isolation of specific intact protein ions prior to fragmentation, allowing fragment ion attribution to a specific precursor ion. However, the fragmentation efficiency of mature, intact protein ions by MS/MS post-source decay (PSD) varies widely, and the biochemical and structural factors of the protein that contribute to it are poorly understood. With the advent of protein structure prediction algorithms such as Alphafold2, we have wider access to protein structures for which no crystal structure exists. In this work, we use a statistical approach to explore the properties of bacterial proteins that can affect their gas phase dissociation via PSD. We extract various protein properties from Alphafold2 predictions and analyze their effect on fragmentation efficiency. Our results show that the fragmentation efficiency from cleavage of the polypeptide backbone on the C-terminal side of glutamic acid (E) and asparagine (N) residues were nearly equal. In addition, we found that the rearrangement and cleavage on the C-terminal side of aspartic acid (D) residues that result from the aspartic acid effect (AAE) were higher than for E- and N-residues. From residue interaction network analysis, we identified several local centrality measures and discussed their implications regarding the AAE. We also confirmed the selective cleavage of the backbone at D-proline bonds in proteins and further extend it to N-proline bonds. Finally, we note an enhancement of the AAE mechanism when the residue on the C-terminal side of D-, E- and N-residues is glycine. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of this phenomenon. Our study demonstrates the value of using statistical analyses of protein sequences and their predicted structures to better understand the fragmentation of the intact protein ions in the gas phase.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Tukey algorithm for enhancing MST radar data

One of the most troublesome features in MSR (mesosphere stratosphere troposphere) velocity measurements is the determination of unwanted scatterer whose velocity is different from that of the surrounding atmosphere. Aircraft seen in the sidelobes of the antenna are the principal problem. Because coherent integration essentially eliminates echoes with line of sight velocities greater than 10 or 20 m/s, aircraft are seen only when their flight path is almost perpendicular to the line of sight. Then, they give large returns whose velocities may be positive or negative, and certainly different from that of the surrounding air. The glitches in the minute by minute velocity records are quite troublesome in that they may distort the statistics of the velocity. An objective way is therefore needed to remove sporadic points of this kind. For this purpose, the Tukey algorithm is appropriate and has some advantages over averaging. The Tukey algorithm, applied to a data array, uses for each data point the median of it and the two points surrounding it. If the three points form a monotonically increasing or decreasing sequence, the original point is copied with change. However, if the central point is remote from the other two, it is replaced by whichever of the two surrounding points is closest in value. The greatest effect of the Tukey algorithm is on data where the successive points are uncorrelated. Examples are given.

Bowhill, S. A.↗

Integrated Software Systems for Crew Management During Extravehicular Activity in Planetary Terrain Exploration

Initial planetary explorations with the Apollo program had a veritable ground support army monitoring the safety and health of the 12 astronauts who performed lunar surface extravehicular activities (EVAs). Given the distances involved, this will not be possible on Mars. A spacesuit for Mars must be smart enough to replace that army. The next generation suits can do so using 2 software systems serving as virtual companions, LEGACI (Life support, Exploration Guidance Algorithm and Consumable Interrogator) and VIOLET (Voice Initiated Operator for Life support and Exploration Tracking). The system presented in this study integrates data inputs from a suite of sensors into the MIII suit s communications, avionics and informatics hardware for distribution to remote managers and data analysis. If successful, the system has application not only for Mars but for nearer term missions to the Moon, and the next generation suits used on ISS as well. Field tests are conducted to assess capabilities for next generation spacesuits at Johnson Space Center (JSC) as well as the Mars and Lunar analog (Devon Island, Canada). LEGACI integrates data inputs from a suite of noninvasive biosensors in the suit and the astronaut (heart rate, suit inlet/outlet lcg temperature and flowrate, suit outlet gas and dewpoint temperature, pCO2, suit O2 pressure, state vector (accelerometry) and others). In the Integrated Walkback Suit Tests held at NASA-JSC and the HMP tests at Devon Island, communication and informatics capabilities were tested (including routing by satellite from the suit at Devon Island to JSC in Houston via secure servers at VCU in Richmond, VA). Results. The input from all the sensors enable LEGACI to compute multiple independent assessments of metabolic rate, from which a "best" met rate is chosen based on statistical methods. This rate can compute detailed information about the suit, crew and EVA performance using test-derived algorithms. VIOLET gives LEGACI voice activation capability, allowing the crew to query the suit, and receive feedback and alerts that will lead to corrective action. LEGACI and VIOLET can also automatically control the astronaut's cooling and consumable use rate without crew input if desired. These findings suggest that non-invasive physiological and environmental sensors supported with data analysis can allow for more effective management of mission task performance during EVA. Integrated remote and local view of data metrics allow crewmember to receive real time feedback in synch with mission control in preventing performance shortcomings for EVA in exploration missions.

Kuznetz, Lawrence↗