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NASA NTRS2014

Background Error Covariance Estimation Using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory.SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Error Covariance↗
NASA NTRS2014

Background Error Covariance Estimation using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation into the GEOS-5 Coupled Model

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Data Assimilation↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Computational Complexity, Parallel Scalability, and Performance of Atmospheric Data Assimilation Algorithms

The computational complexity of algorithms for Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (4DDA) at NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is discussed. In 4DDA, observations are assimilated with the output of a dynamical model to generate best-estimates of the states of the system. It is thus a mapping problem, whereby scattered observations are converted into regular accurate maps of wind, temperature, moisture and other variables. The DAO is developing and using 4DDA algorithms that provide these datasets, or analyses, in support of Earth System Science research. Two large-scale algorithms are discussed. The first approach, the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), uses an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) and an observation-space based analysis system, the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). GEOS DAS is very similar to global meteorological weather forecasting data assimilation systems, but is used at NASA for climate research. Systems of this size typically run at between 1 and 20 gigaflop/s. The second approach, the Kalman filter, uses a more consistent algorithm to determine the forecast error covariance matrix than does GEOS DAS. For atmospheric assimilation, the gridded dynamical fields typically have More than 10(exp 6) variables, therefore the full error covariance matrix may be in excess of a teraword. For the Kalman filter this problem can easily scale to petaflop/s proportions. We discuss the computational complexity of GEOS DAS and our implementation of the Kalman filter. We also discuss and quantify some of the technical issues and limitations in developing efficient, in terms of wall clock time, and scalable parallel implementations of the algorithms.

Lyster, Peter M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Nested rain cell contour statistics derived from radar measurements in the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States

During a period spanning more than 5 years, a series of low elevation rain radar measurements encompassing 17 rain days were systematically executed in the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States. Drop size distribution measurements with a nearby disdrometer were also acquired during the same rain days. The drop size data were utilized to convert the radar reflectivity factors to estimated rain rates for the respective rain days of operation. Applying developed algorithms to the radar and disdrometer data, 'core' values of rain intensities and nested families of rain rate isopleths enveloping them were identified and their equi-circle diameters were statistically analyzed.

Goldhirsh, Julius↗
NASA NTRS2012

Downsampling Photodetector Array with Windowing

In a photon counting detector array, each pixel in the array produces an electrical pulse when an incident photon on that pixel is detected. Detection and demodulation of an optical communication signal that modulated the intensity of the optical signal requires counting the number of photon arrivals over a given interval. As the size of photon counting photodetector arrays increases, parallel processing of all the pixels exceeds the resources available in current application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) and gate array (GA) technology; the desire for a high fill factor in avalanche photodiode (APD) detector arrays also precludes this. Through the use of downsampling and windowing portions of the detector array, the processing is distributed between the ASIC and GA. This allows demodulation of the optical communication signal incident on a large photon counting detector array, as well as providing architecture amenable to algorithmic changes. The detector array readout ASIC functions as a parallel-to-serial converter, serializing the photodetector array output for subsequent processing. Additional downsampling functionality for each pixel is added to this ASIC. Due to the large number of pixels in the array, the readout time of the entire photodetector is greater than the time between photon arrivals; therefore, a downsampling pre-processing step is done in order to increase the time allowed for the readout to occur. Each pixel drives a small counter that is incremented at every detected photon arrival or, equivalently, the charge in a storage capacitor is incremented. At the end of a user-configurable counting period (calculated independently from the ASIC), the counters are sampled and cleared. This downsampled photon count information is then sent one counter word at a time to the GA. For a large array, processing even the downsampled pixel counts exceeds the capabilities of the GA. Windowing of the array, whereby several subsets of pixels are designated for processing, is used to further reduce the computational requirements. The grouping of the designated pixel frame as the photon count information is sent one word at a time to the GA, the aggregation of the pixels in a window can be achieved by selecting only the designated pixel counts from the serial stream of photon counts, thereby obviating the need to store the entire frame of pixel count in the gate array. The pixel count se quence from each window can then be processed, forming lower-rate pixel statistics for each window. By having this processing occur in the GA rather than in the ASIC, future changes to the processing algorithm can be readily implemented. The high-bandwidth requirements of a photon counting array combined with the properties of the optical modulation being detected by the array present a unique problem that has not been addressed by current CCD or CMOS sensor array solutions.

Patawaran, Ferze D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The Marshall Engineering Thermosphere model atmosphere Statistical Analysis Mode (MET-SAM)

The minimum, mean, and maximum exospheric temperature on the globe were calculated for every three hour period from 1947 through 1989 using the algorithms in the Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET) model and the appropriate solar activity input parameters. Cumulative percent frequency (CPF) distributions were then calculated for each of these temperatures at five levels of solar activity as defined by the 13-month smoothed values of the 10.7-cm solar radio noise flux. Next, the 50, 95, 97.7, and 100 percentile temperature values in each of these five levels of solar activity were curve fit as a function of the 13-month smoothed 10.7-cm flux. The resulting algorithms are used to compute the exospheric temperature in the MET model instead of the technique developed by Jacchia in his 1970 model. These temperatures are then used to enter tables to determine the total mass density and/or the atomic oxygen number density for application to engineering problems. Users can specify the risk level they are willing to accept in the results of analyses that require neutral atmosphere parameters inputs. The model eliminates the guess work in how to combine the solar activity input parameters to insure that the results provide answers at the proper risk levels.

Smith, Robert E.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Algorithm Performance Dataset from NASA Open-Source Software

NASA Langley Research Center has recently developed and released the open-source software Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (MXMCPy- LAR-19756-1) as a general capability for computing the statistics of outputs from an expensive, high-fidelity model by leveraging faster, low-fidelity models for speedup. Given a fixed computational budget and a collection of models with varying cost/accuracy, multi model Monte Carlo (MC) seeks a sample allocation strategy across the models that results in an estimator with optimal variance reduction. MXMCPy is a versatile tool that enables convenient access to many existing multi-model MC approaches (over a dozen algorithms available) within one modular and extensible package [1]. With MXMCPy, users can easily compare existing methods to determine the best choice for their particular problem,while developers have a basis for implementing and sharing new variance reduction approaches. However,there is currently very little understanding about which algorithm will perform best for a given problem (defined by the correlation between and relative cost of the available models) without a brute force search.

Geoffrey F Bomarito↗
NASA NTRS1982

Interconnect fatigue design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

The results of comprehensive investigation of interconnect fatigue that has led to the definition of useful reliability-design and life-prediction algorithms are presented. Experimental data indicate that the classical strain-cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material is a good model of mean interconnect fatigue performance, but it fails to account for the broad statistical scatter, which is critical to reliability prediction. To fill this shortcoming the classical fatigue curve is combined with experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data to yield statistical fatigue curves (having failure probability as a parameter) which enable (1) the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, and (2) the unambiguous--ie., quantitative--interpretation of data from field-service qualification (accelerated thermal cycling) tests. Optimal interconnect cost-reliability design algorithms are derived based on minimizing the cost of energy over the design life of the array field.

Mon, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Foliage discrimination using a rotating ladar

We present a real time algorithm that detects foliage using range from a rotating laser. Objects not classified as foliage are conservatively labeled as non-driving obstacles. In contrast to related work that uses range statistics to classify objects, we exploit the expected localities and continuities of an obstacle, in both space and time. Also, instead of attempting to find a single accurate discriminating factor for every ladar return, we hypothesize the class of some few returns and then spread the confidence (and classification) to other returns using the locality constraints. The Urbie robot is presently using this algorithm to descriminate drivable grass from obstacles during outdoor autonomous navigation tasks.

Autonomous navigation range robots↗
NASA NTRS2009

Using the Chandra Source-Finding Algorithm to Automatically Identify Solar X-ray Bright Points

This poster details a technique of bright point identification that is used to find sources in Chandra X-ray data. The algorithm, part of a program called LEXTRCT, searches for regions of a given size that are above a minimum signal to noise ratio. The algorithm allows selected pixels to be excluded from the source-finding, thus allowing exclusion of saturated pixels (from flares and/or active regions). For Chandra data the noise is determined by photon counting statistics, whereas solar telescopes typically integrate a flux. Thus the calculated signal-to-noise ratio is incorrect, but we find we can scale the number to get reasonable results. For example, Nakakubo and Hara (1998) find 297 bright points in a September 11, 1996 Yohkoh image; with judicious selection of signal-to-noise ratio, our algorithm finds 300 sources. To further assess the efficacy of the algorithm, we analyze a SOHO/EIT image (195 Angstroms) and compare results with those published in the literature (McIntosh and Gurman, 2005). Finally, we analyze three sets of data from Hinode, representing different parts of the decline to minimum of the solar cycle.

Adams, Mitzi L.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Space shuttle guidance, navigation and control equation document no. 4: Precision state and filter weighting matrix extrapolation

The Precision State and Filter Weighting Matrix Extrapolation Routine is described which provides the capability to extrapolate any spacecraft geocentric state vector either backwards or forwards in time through a force field consisting of the earth's primary central-force gravitational attraction and a superimposed perturbing acceleration. The routine also provides the capability of extrapolating the filter-weighting matrix along the precision trajectory. This matrix is a square root form of the error covariance matrix and contains statistical information relative to the accuracies of the state vectors and certain other optionally estimated quantities. The routine is a cooled algorithm for the numerical solution of modified forms of the basic differential equations which are satisfied by the geocentric state vector of the spacecraft's center of mass and by the filter-weighting matrix.

Robertson, W. M.↗
NASA NTRS1974

A priori estimate of the quality of a data compression system based on statistical characteristics of the sensors used

Knowledge of the composition and certain statistical characteristics of the output signals of the scientific instruments on board a space vehicle allows determination of possible signal processing algorithms in the system and to evaluate the prospects for utilization of data reduction. A method is presented to estimate the compression factor of an on-board data collection and processing system with known mean activities of the sensors used and unknown mutual correlation of their output signals.

Khodarev, Y. K.↗
NASA NTRS1983

An algorithm for using a laser anemometer to determine mean streamline patterns in a turbulent flow

The technique of tracing out a mean flow streamline with a three dimensional laser Doppler anemometer (LDA) is discussed with respect to cumulative, systematic errors that are inherent when the motion of the LDA test point is in the direction of the local measured velocity. Using simple potential flows that have variable curvature and inflection points to simulate an LDA experiment, a streamline tracing algorithm is developed that minimizes these errors. Also, the test point path remains close to the correct streamline even when simulated statistical measurement variations are included.

Orloff, K. L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

LANDSAT-4 image data quality analysis

Seven heterogeneous areas within the Des Moines, Iowa area test site were selected to define candidate spectral training classes using a clustering algorithm. In addition to the 91 cluster (nonsupervised) classes, three supervised training classes were defined and subsequently included in the training statistics file. The identity of all 94 candidate classes were determined using available reference data. Through analysis of the interclass separabilities, the original 94 candidate training classes were reduced to 42 spectrally separable final classes. The minimum average transformed divergence values for the 42 spectral classes and for the best subsets of TM spectral bands are shown in a table.

Anuta, P. E.↗
NASA NTRS1985

An evaluation and comparison of vertical profile data from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS)

A statistical evaluation is used to compared vertical profiles of temperature and moisture derived from VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) with three different algorithms to that of corresponding rawinsonde measurements for a clear cold environment. To account for time and space discrepancies between the data sets, rawinsonde data were adjusted to be representative of the satellite sounding times. Both rawinsonde and satellite sounding data were objectively analyzed onto a mesoscale grid. These grid point values were compared at 50 mb pressure increments from the surface up to 100 mb. The data were analyed for horizontal and vertical structure, representatives of derived parameters, and significant departure (improvement) from the apriori (first guess) information. Results indicate some rather strong temperature and moisture biases exist in the satellite soundings. Temperature biases of 1 to 4 C and dewpoint biases of 2 to 6 C generally occur in layers where strong inversions are present and vary with time as these atmospheric features evolve. The biases also changes as a function retrieval scheme suggesting limitations and restrictions on the applications of the various techniques. Standard temperature deviations range from 1 to 2 C for each retrieval scheme with maximum values around 800 and 400 mb. Derived parameters (precipitable water and thickness) suffer from similar biases, though to a somewhat lesser extent. Gradients of basic and derived parameters are generally weaker but have good horizontal structure where magnitudes of the parameters are relatively strong. Integrated thermal (temperature) and moisture (precipitable water) parameters show mixed results.

Jedlovec, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

History matching by spline approximation and regularization in single-phase areal reservoirs

An automatic history matching algorithm is developed based on bi-cubic spline approximations of permeability and porosity distributions and on the theory of regularization to estimate permeability or porosity in a single-phase, two-dimensional real reservoir from well pressure data. The regularization feature of the algorithm is used to convert the ill-posed history matching problem into a well-posed problem. The algorithm employs the conjugate gradient method as its core minimization method. A number of numerical experiments are carried out to evaluate the performance of the algorithm. Comparisons with conventional (non-regularized) automatic history matching algorithms indicate the superiority of the new algorithm with respect to the parameter estimates obtained. A quasioptimal regularization parameter is determined without requiring a priori information on the statistical properties of the observations.

Lee, T. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1985

An evaluation and comparison of vertical profile data from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS)

A statistical evaluation is used to compared vertical profiles of temperature and moisture derived from VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) with three different algorithms to that of corresponding rawinsonde measurements for a clear cold environment. To account for time and space discrepancies between the data sets, rawinsonde data were adjusted to be representative of the satellite sounding times. Both rawinsonde and satellite sounding data were objectively analyzed onto a mesoscale grid. These grid point values were compared at 50 mb pressure increments from the surface up to 100 mb. The data were analyzed for horizontal and vertical structure, representatives of derived parameters, and significant departure (improvement) from the apriori (first guess) information. Results indicate some rather strong temperature and moisture biases exist in the satellite soundings. Temperature biases of 1 to 4 C and dewpoint biases of 2 to 6 C generally occur in layers where strong inversions are present and vary with time as these atmospheric features evolve. The biases also changes as a function retrieval scheme suggesting limitations and restrictions on the applications of the various techniques. Standard temperature deviations range from 1 to 2 C for each retrieval scheme with maximum values around 800 and 400 mb. Derived parameters (precipitable water and thickness) suffer from similar biases, though to a somewhat lesser extent. Gradients of basic and derived parameters are generally weaker but have good horizontal structure where magnitudes of the parameters are relatively strong. Integrated thermal (temperature) and moisture (precipitable water) parameters show mixed results.

Jedlovec, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The latitudinal distribution of ozone to 35 km altitude from ECC ozonesonde observations, 1982-1990

Electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) ozone-sonde observations, made in recent years at ten stations whose locations range from the Arctic to Antarctica, have yielded a self-consistent ozone data base from which mean seasonal and annual latitudinal ozone vertical distributions to 35 km have been derived. Ozone measurement uncertainties are estimated, and results are presented in the Bass-Paur (1985) ozone absorption coefficient scale adopted for use with Dobson ozone spectrophotometers January 1, 1992. The data should be useful for comparison with model calculations of the global distribution of atmospheric ozone, for serving as apriori statistical information in deriving ozone vertical distributions from satellite and Umkehr observations, and for improving the satellite and Umkehr ozone inversion algorithms. Attention is drawn to similar results based on a less comprehensive data set published in Ozone in the Atmosphere, Proceedings of the 1988 Quadrennial Ozone Symposium where errors in data tabulations occurred for three of the stations due to inadvertent transposition of ozone partial pressure and air temperature values.

Komhyr, W. D.↗