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NASA NTRS2002

Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of a 95-Year Solar Dataset for Resource Adequacy Studies

Long-term high-resolution solar data provides enhanced understanding of variability of solar generation and enhances our ability to develop strategies for a resilient and reliable electric grid under high deployment of solar energy. Therefore, it is important to develop long-term synthetic datasets that can provide multiple occurrences of various severe weather scenarios that are expected to test the limits of resource adequacy under scenarios contain various energy generation sources. Examples of such scenarios could be long periods of high temperatures when demand for electricity is high or periods where high winds could lead to a shut-down of transmission lines for long periods of time to ensure fire safety. NREL has developed the first version of such a dataset covering a 95-year period covering 2006-2100 at a 4km hourly resolution. This dataset contains all variables necessary to calculate solar generation. During development of this dataset, we focused on creating unbiased, high-resolution solar irradiance through statistical downscaling methods, using Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) as input. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) containing over 25 years of observations was used to calibrate the statistical downscaling models. This presentation will outline the primary steps in developing this dataset, including (1) regridding RCM data to a common grid at 20-km resolution, (2) correcting RCM biases with NSRDB, (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar and ancillary data. Additionally, we will present an evaluation of the downscaled data against the NSRDB across various zones in the CONUS. Lastly, we will present a user guide for accessing the datasets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

From chiral effective field theory to perturbative QCD: A Bayesian model mixing approach to symmetric nuclear matter

Constraining the equation of state (EOS) of strongly interacting, dense matter is the focus of intense experimental, observational, and theoretical effort. Chiral effective field theory (𝜒⁢EFT ) can describe the EOS between the typical densities of nuclei and those in the outer cores of neutron stars, while perturbative QCD (pQCD) can be applied to properties of deconfined quark matter, both with quantified theoretical uncertainties. However, describing the full range of densities in between with a single EOS that has well-quantified uncertainties is a challenging problem. Bayesian multimodel inference from 𝜒⁢EFT and pQCD can help bridge the gap between the two theories. In this work, we introduce a correlated Bayesian model mixing framework that uses a Gaussian process (GP) to assimilate different information into a single QCD EOS for symmetric nuclear matter. The present implementation uses a stationary GP to infer this mixed EOS solely from the EOSs of 𝜒⁢EFT and pQCD while accounting for the truncation errors of each theory. The GP is trained on the pressure as a function of number density in the low- and high-density regions where 𝜒⁢EFT and pQCD are, respectively, valid. We impose priors on the GP kernel hyperparameters to suppress unphysical correlations between these regimes. This, together with the assumption of stationarity, results in smooth 𝜒⁢EFT-to-pQCD curves for both the pressure and the speed of sound. We show that using uncorrelated mixing requires uncontrolled extrapolation of at least one of 𝜒⁢EFT or pQCD into regions where the perturbative series breaks down and leads to an acausal EOS. Here, we also discuss extensions of this framework to nonstationary and less differentiable GP kernels, its future application to neutron-star matter, and the incorporation of additional constraints from nuclear theory, experiment, and multimessenger astronomy.

Bayesian methods↗

NASA NTRS1976

Test particle propagation in magnetostatic turbulence. 2: The local approximation method

An approximation method for statistical mechanics is presented and applied to a class of problems which contains a test particle propagation problem. All of the available basic equations used in statistical mechanics are cast in the form of a single equation which is integrodifferential in time and which is then used as the starting point for the construction of the local approximation method. Simplification of the integrodifferential equation is achieved through approximation to the Laplace transform of its kernel. The approximation is valid near the origin in the Laplace space and is based on the assumption of small Laplace variable. No other small parameter is necessary for the construction of this approximation method. The n'th level of approximation is constructed formally, and the first five levels of approximation are calculated explicitly. It is shown that each level of approximation is governed by an inhomogeneous partial differential equation in time with time independent operator coefficients. The order in time of these partial differential equations is found to increase as n does. At n = 0 the most local first order partial differential equation which governs the Markovian limit is regained.

Klimas, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Statistical optical link budget analysis

In this paper, we describe work on extending statistical analysis methods to optical communications links, with a primary focus on intensity modulated, direct detected photon-counting channel utilizing pulse-position-modulation (PPM). We performed analysis on the relationship between bit error rate (BER) requirement, statistical characteristics of the received signal power and noise power, and the coded performance curves. We presented link analysis results with preliminary uncertainty quantifications of signal power and noise power. We used the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) Serially Concatenated convolutionally coded Pulse Position Modulation (SCPPM) prototype software [1] to obtain coded performance curves under different operating conditions with varying signal power, background noise power, code rates,and PPM modulation orders. Comparison with traditional, deterministic analysis shows that extra margin needs to be reserved to compensate for the performance losses caused by uncertainties of the link parameters.

Cheung, Kar-Ming↗

NASA NTRS2016

Consistent Practices for the Probability of Detection (POD) of Fracture Critical Metallic Components Project

NASA-STD-5009 requires that successful flaw detection by NDE methods be statistically qualified for use on fracture critical metallic components, but does not standardize practices. This task works towards standardizing calculations and record retention with a web-based tool, the NNWG POD Standards Library or NPSL. Test methods will also be standardized with an appropriately flexible appendix to -5009 identifying best practices. Additionally, this appendix will describe how specimens used to qualify NDE systems will be cataloged, stored and protected from corrosion, damage, or loss.

Hughitt, Brian↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Influence of Roughness on Gear Surface Fatigue

Gear working surfaces are subjected to repeated rolling and sliding contacts, and often designs require loads sufficient to cause eventual fatigue of the surface. This research provides experimental data and analytical tools to further the understanding of the causal relationship of gear surface roughness to surface fatigue. The research included evaluations and developments of statistical tools for gear fatigue data, experimental evaluation of the surface fatigue lives of superfinished gears with a near-mirror quality, and evaluations of the experiments by analytical methods and surface inspections. Alternative statistical methods were evaluated using Monte Carlo studies leading to a final recommendation to describe gear fatigue data using a Weibull distribution, maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, and a presumed zero-valued location parameter. A new method was developed for comparing two datasets by extending the current methods of likelihood-ratio based statistics. The surface fatigue lives of superfinished gears were evaluated by carefully controlled experiments, and it is shown conclusively that superfinishing of gears can provide for significantly greater lives relative to ground gears. The measured life improvement was approximately a factor of five. To assist with application of this finding to products, the experimental condition was evaluated. The fatigue life results were expressed in terms of specific film thickness and shown to be consistent with bearing data. Elastohydrodynamic and stress analyses were completed to relate the stress condition to fatigue. Smooth-surface models do not adequately explain the improved fatigue lives. Based on analyses using a rough surface model, it is concluded that the improved fatigue lives of superfinished gears is due to a reduced rate of near-surface micropitting fatigue processes, not due to any reduced rate of spalling (sub-surface) fatigue processes. To complete the evaluations, surface inspection were completed. The surface topographies of the ground gears changed substantially due to running, but the topographies of the superfinished gears were essentially unchanged with running.

Krantz, Timothy↗

NASA NTRS2000

Development and Application of Computational/In Vitro Toxicological Methods for Chemical Hazard Risk Reduction of New Materials for Advanced Weapon Systems

The development of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) is essential for reducing the chemical hazards of new weapon systems. The current collaboration between HEST (toxicology research and testing), MLPJ (computational chemistry) and PRS (computational chemistry, new propellant synthesis) is focusing R&D efforts on basic research goals that will rapidly transition to useful products for propellant development. Computational methods are being investigated that will assist in forecasting cellular toxicological end-points. Models developed from these chemical structure-toxicity relationships are useful for the prediction of the toxicological endpoints of new related compounds. Research is focusing on the evaluation tools to be used for the discovery of such relationships and the development of models of the mechanisms of action. Combinations of computational chemistry techniques, in vitro toxicity methods, and statistical correlations, will be employed to develop and explore potential predictive relationships; results for series of molecular systems that demonstrate the viability of this approach are reported. A number of hydrazine salts have been synthesized for evaluation. Computational chemistry methods are being used to elucidate the mechanism of action of these salts. Toxicity endpoints such as viability (LDH) and changes in enzyme activity (glutahoione peroxidase and catalase) are being experimentally measured as indicators of cellular damage. Extrapolation from computational/in vitro studies to human toxicity, is the ultimate goal. The product of this program will be a predictive tool to assist in the development of new, less toxic propellants.

Frazier, John M.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Optimum coherent imaging of a limited field of view in the presence of angular and aperture noise

The question of image distribution reconstruction for coherent illumination of an object located in the aperture far zone is considered from first principles without postulating any particular optical spread function. The object function is mathematically modeled as a complex random function of angular coordinates, and it is assumed that the object distribution of interest is angularly limited to a certain a priori assigned field of view (FOV). A linear reconstruction procedure that is uniformly optimal in the FOV is established by using the methods of statistical estimation. Two special cases are examined: imaging a limited sector of a wide-angle random scene and objects in the FOV immersed in a wide-angle background of angular noise. It is noted that the domain of application of the reconstruction method is restricted to microwave frequencies.

Borgiotti, G. V.↗

NASA NTRS1960

A Self-Adaptive Missile Guidance System for Statistical Inputs

A method of designing a self-adaptive missile guidance system is presented. The system inputs are assumed to be known in a statistical sense only. Newton's modified Wiener theory is utilized in the design of the system and to establish the performance criterion. The missile is assumed to be a beam rider, to have a g limiter, and to operate over a flight envelope where the open-loop gain varies by a factor of 20. It is shown that the percent of time that missile acceleration limiting occurs can be used effectively to adjust the coefficients of the Wiener filter. The result is a guidance system which adapts itself to a changing environment and gives essentially optimum filtering and minimum miss distance.

Peery, H. Rodney↗

NASA NTRS1973

A variation of the Davis-Smith method for in-flight determination of spacecraft magnetic fields.

A variation of a procedure developed by Davis and Smith (1968) is presented for the in-flight determination of spacecraft magnetic fields. Both methods take statistical advantage of the observation that fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field over short periods of time are primarily changes in direction rather than in magnitude. During typical solar wind conditions between 0.8 and 1.0 AU, a statistical analysis of 2-3 days of continuous interplanetary field measurements yields an estimate of a constant spacecraft field with an uncertainty of plus or minus 0.25 gamma in the direction radial to the sun and plus or minus 15 gammas in the directions transverse to the radial. The method is also of use in estimating variable spacecraft fields with gradients of the order of 0.1 gamma/day and less and in other special circumstances.

Belcher, J. W.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anomaly Detection and Approximate Similarity Searches of Transients in Real-time Data Streams

Abstract We present Lightcurve Anomaly Identification and Similarity Search ( LAISS ), an automated pipeline to detect anomalous astrophysical transients in real-time data streams. We deploy our anomaly detection model on the nightly Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) Alert Stream via the ANTARES broker, identifying a manageable ∼1–5 candidates per night for expert vetting and coordinating follow-up observations. Our method leverages statistical light-curve and contextual host galaxy features within a random forest classifier, tagging transients of rare classes ( spectroscopic anomalies), of uncommon host galaxy environments ( contextual anomalies), and of peculiar or interaction-powered phenomena ( behavioral anomalies). Moreover, we demonstrate the power of a low-latency (∼ms) approximate similarity search method to find transient analogs with similar light-curve evolution and host galaxy environments. We use analogs for data-driven discovery, characterization, (re)classification, and imputation in retrospective and real-time searches. To date, we have identified ∼50 previously known and previously missed rare transients from real-time and retrospective searches, including but not limited to superluminous supernovae (SLSNe), tidal disruption events, SNe IIn, SNe IIb, SNe I-CSM, SNe Ia-91bg-like, SNe Ib, SNe Ic, SNe Ic-BL, and M31 novae. Lastly, we report the discovery of 325 total transients, all observed between 2018 and 2021 and absent from public catalogs (∼1% of all ZTF Astronomical Transient reports to the Transient Name Server through 2021). These methods enable a systematic approach to finding the “needle in the haystack” in large-volume data streams. Because of its integration with the ANTARES broker, LAISS is built to detect exciting transients in Rubin data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Framework Using Applied Process Analysis Methods to Assess Water Security in the Vu Gia–Thu Bon River Basin, Vietnam

The Vu Gia–Thu Bon (VG–TB) river basin is facing numerous challenges to water security, particularly in light of the increasing impacts of climate change. These challenges, including salinity intrusion, shifts in rainfall patterns, and reduced water supply in downstream areas, are of great concern. This study comprehensively assessed the current state of water security in the basin using robust statistical analysis methods such as the Process Analysis Method (PAM), SMART principle, and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This resulted in the development of a comprehensive assessment framework for water security in the VG–TB river basin. This framework identified five key dimensions, with basin development activities (0.32), the ability to meet water needs (0.24), and natural disaster resilience (0.19) being the most crucial and water resource potential being the least crucial (0.11) according to the AHP methodology. The latter also highlighted 15 indicators, four of which are particularly influential, including waste resources (0.54), flood (0.53), water storage capacity (0.45), and basin governance (0.42). Furthermore, 28 variables with high weight factors were identified. This framework aligns with the UN-Water water security definition and addresses the global water sustainability criteria outlined in Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG6). It enables the computation of a comprehensive Water Security Index (WSI) for specific regions, providing a strong foundation for decision-making and policy formulation. It aims to enhance water security in the context of climate change and support sustainable basin development, thereby guiding future research and policy decisions in water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

PNNL-Predictive-Phenomics/ProteoMeter

ProteoMeter is a Python package that assists in the statistical analysis of global proteomics, protein post-translation modification (PTM), and limited proteolysis (LiP) data. It contains batch correction, normalization, and statistical testing methods, as well as functions that "roll up" peptide-level data to the single-site level. It has a robust user configuration system, allowing it to flexibly integrate different types of experiment designs. For basic usage, a simple configuration file provides the essential functionality. Advanced users have access to the entire statistical pipeline for fine-tuning analyses. Processed data is easily exported to many common spreadsheet and data-frame formats.

Rozum, Jordan [Pacific Northwest National Lab]↗

NASA NTRS1988

Kuhn-Tucker optimization based reliability analysis for probabilistic finite elements

The fusion of probability finite element method (PFEM) and reliability analysis for fracture mechanics is considered. Reliability analysis with specific application to fracture mechanics is presented, and computational procedures are discussed. Explicit expressions for the optimization procedure with regard to fracture mechanics are given. The results show the PFEM is a very powerful tool in determining the second-moment statistics. The method can determine the probability of failure or fracture subject to randomness in load, material properties and crack length, orientation, and location.

Liu, W. K.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparative Analyses of Bioequivalence Assessment Methods for In Vitro Permeation Test Data

ABSTRACT For topical, dermatological drug products, an in vitro option to determine bioequivalence (BE) between test and reference products is recommended. In particular, in vitro permeation test (IVPT) data analysis uses a reference‐scaled approach for two primary endpoints, cumulative penetration amount (AMT) and maximum flux ( J max ), which takes the within donor variability into consideration. In 2022, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) published a draft IVPT guidance that includes statistical analysis methods for both balanced and unbalanced cases of IVPT study data. This work presents a comprehensive evaluation of various methodologies used to estimate critical parameters essential in assessing BE. Specifically, we investigate the performance of the FDA draft IVPT guidance approach alongside alternative empirical and model‐based methods utilizing mixed‐effects models. Our analyses include both simulated scenarios and real‐world studies. In simulated scenarios, empirical formulas consistently demonstrate robustness in approximating the true model, particularly in effectively addressing treatment–donor interactions. Conversely, the effectiveness of model‐based approaches heavily relies on precise model selection, which significantly influences their results. The research emphasizes the importance of accurate model selection in model‐based BE assessment methodologies. It sheds light on the advantages of empirical formulas, highlighting their reliability compared to model‐based approaches and offers valuable implications for BE assessments. Our findings underscore the significance of robust methodologies and provide essential insights to advance their understanding and application in the assessment of BE, employed in IVPT data analysis.

Leon, Sami↗

NASA NTRS2010

A GPS-Based Pitot-Static Calibration Method Using Global Output-Error Optimization

Pressure-based airspeed and altitude measurements for aircraft typically require calibration of the installed system to account for pressure sensing errors such as those due to local flow field effects. In some cases, calibration is used to meet requirements such as those specified in Federal Aviation Regulation Part 25. Several methods are used for in-flight pitot-static calibration including tower fly-by, pacer aircraft, and trailing cone methods. In the 1990 s, the introduction of satellite-based positioning systems to the civilian market enabled new inflight calibration methods based on accurate ground speed measurements provided by Global Positioning Systems (GPS). Use of GPS for airspeed calibration has many advantages such as accuracy, ease of portability (e.g. hand-held) and the flexibility of operating in airspace without the limitations of test range boundaries or ground telemetry support. The current research was motivated by the need for a rapid and statistically accurate method for in-flight calibration of pitot-static systems for remotely piloted, dynamically-scaled research aircraft. Current calibration methods were deemed not practical for this application because of confined test range size and limited flight time available for each sortie. A method was developed that uses high data rate measurements of static and total pressure, and GPSbased ground speed measurements to compute the pressure errors over a range of airspeed. The novel application of this approach is the use of system identification methods that rapidly compute optimal pressure error models with defined confidence intervals in nearreal time. This method has been demonstrated in flight tests and has shown 2- bounds of approximately 0.2 kts with an order of magnitude reduction in test time over other methods. As part of this experiment, a unique database of wind measurements was acquired concurrently with the flight experiments, for the purpose of experimental validation of the optimization method. This paper describes the GPS-based pitot-static calibration method developed for the AirSTAR research test-bed operated as part of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Controls (IRAC) project in the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). A description of the method will be provided and results from recent flight tests will be shown to illustrate the performance and advantages of this approach. Discussion of maneuver requirements and data reduction will be included as well as potential applications.

Foster, John V.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Lagrangian least-squares prediction of solar flux (F-bar 10.7)

The result of a study on the application of an improved statistical prediction method for estimating the intermediate-term (months) and long-term (years) behavior of solar flux is discussed. The study indicates that better predictions, in a chi square sense, are possible by selecting sets of the solar flux data such that each set (cycle) starts and ends at the maxima (or minima) for the data base and initialization point of the procedure. Then one applies a Lagrangian least-squares statistical technique. Evidence is also presented to support the existence of an aperiodic variation in the periods as well as the amplitudes.

Holland, R. L.↗