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DOE OSTI2022

Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment of Current (2020) and Future (2030-2035) Technologies

This study provides a comprehensive life cycle analysis (LCA), or cradle-to-grave (C2G) analysis, of the cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of a variety of vehicle-fuel pathways, the levelized cost of driving (LCD) and cost of avoided GHG emissions. The C2G analysis assesses light duty midsize sedans and small sport utility vehicles (SUVs) across a variety of vehicle-fuel technology pathways, including conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flexible hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs) with varying vehicle ranges, and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). Coming at a timely manner, given the marked increase, since 2016, in climate aspirations announced by governmental institutions and private firms both in the US and across the globe, this analysis builds on a previous comprehensive life cycle analysis, updating that study’s 2016 assumptions and methods (Elgowainy et al. 2016). These updates incorporate technological advances and changes in energy supply sources that have emerged during the intervening period. Utilizing these updated assumptions and methods, alongside more recent data, the present report accounts for a broader range of vehicle technologies and considers both current (2020) and expected future (2030-2035) conditions. Reflecting increased research interest in synthetic liquid fuels produced using renewable low-carbon electricity and CO 2 sources, electro-fuels (a.k.a. e-fuels) were added to the potential future fuel technologies that are evaluated. This study takes a “pathway” approach rather than a “scenario” approach; hence distinct, technically feasible, routes or sequences of processes starting with one or more feedstocks and ending with an intermediate or a final product are examined, not necessarily constrained by practical feedstock, economic, policy, and market considerations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multi-Convertor Configurable Simulator for Dynamic Radioisotope Power Systems

This paper presents the multi-convertor configurable simulator (MCCS) that can emulate piston/displacer dynamics and power outputs of various types of free-piston Stirling convertors developed at NASA GRC, including Technical Demonstration Convertor (TDC), Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC), Flexure Isotope Stirling Convertor (FISC), Sunpower Robust Stirling Convertor (SRSC), and P2A. The MCCS can emulate up to four convertors, instead of two convertors in state-of-the-art Stirling simulators, and the maximum power output for each convertor is 1kW. Furthermore, hardware and software changes required to switch between convertors are minimized for easy conversion. A hardware-in-loop (HIL) system is used to easily switch between convertors by updating linearized modeling parameters in software. Also, switched-mode AC power supplies are used to generate wide ranges of voltage and current to emulate different types of Stirling convertors without replacing AC power supplies. Finally, the inductors emulating the linear alternator, which is the only hardware change needed for conversion, are modularized in alternator boxes to enable easy replacement of the inductors. These two features—easy conversion and capability of emulating up to four 1kW-convertors—will enable the validation tests of multi-convertor controller (MCC) concepts that are being developed by APL, the Dynamic Radioisotope Power System (DRPS) generator, and other controller developments for current and future DRPS flight projects. Finally, the MCCS is configured to demonstrate emulation of four FISCs and the outputs of the MCCS are compared with experimental data from the actual FISC.

Free-Piston Stirling Convertor Controller↗

DOE OSTI2024

ASME Design Code Rule Changes for Nuclear Graphite

The American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler Pressure and Vessel Code (ASME BPVC) Section III, Division 5, Article HHA-3000 outlines graphite core component and graphite core assembly design guidelines. Graphite core components are defined as ?components manufactured from graphite that are installed to form a graphite core assembly within the reactor pressure vessel of a high temperature, graphite moderated fission reactor.? (p. 413) Graphites? inherent defect distributions do not allow for deterministic material reliability. Rather, graphite has variable strength distributions which change by grade. Article HHA-3000 outlines two semi-probabilistic methods, the full and simplified assessments, which set design load limit targets for each of three component structural reliability classes. The Design Task Group was officially recognized as a specialized task group within ASME November of 2023, though we?ve been collaborating since 2022. The purpose of the Design Task Group is to correct, clarify, and make HHA-3000 function as intended. The Design Task Group will sunset once we?ve achieved our objectives. The Design Task Group was specifically told to not write new Code. While there may be more precise and more accurate methods to determine reliability targets, the current methods are conservative, relatively simple to implement, and have thus far been considered satisfactory for setting design reliability targets. Much of the ground-work to write proposal files and background documents for records to make the changes needed to achieve our objective have been completed. The Design Task Group has documented much of their work through papers, presentations, and memorandums. Three memorandums in which INL team members had substantial contributions are found in the Appendices: FEA Modeling for the Baseline Program, Evaluating the Effects on Margin of Updating the Threshold and Shape Parameters in the Full Assessment, and Interpretations of the Full and Simplified Assessments in ASME BPVC. Most of the on-going work to achieve the Design Task Group?s objective will be addressing comments on existing records and moving records through the balloting process. The Design Task Group met bi-weekly mostly through the end of FY2023. Since February 2024, the Design Task Group has mostly been completed with solving and documenting the technical issues associated with the assessments. Unless new tasks are identified, the remaining work of the Design Task Group will be political and editorial.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Technical Justifications for Outdoor Bulk Gaseous Hydrogen Storage Setback Distances

Setback distances define a prescribed distance between a potentially hazardous system and different types of other systems, people, buildings, or materials that may be exposed to that hazard. Riskinformed separation distances are not meant to completely eliminate risk, but rather to limit the risk to an acceptable level. A sensitivity study of risk suggested that a leak size of 3% of the pipe cross-sectional area would be a conservative but reasonable basis. Calculation of the setback distances for gaseous hydrogen was done in a deterministic manner, using a selected leak size and harm criteria for each group of exposures. Harm criteria have been updated to better reflect the exposure types under consideration, and to be consistent with setback distances for liquid hydrogen. The resulting setback distance values are primarily driven by radiative heat flux values for all exposure groups. For the typical pipe sizes, the setback distances slightly increase compared to the previous version of NFPA 2.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Progress on the design of the interaction region of the Electron-Ion Collider EIC

We present an update on the design of the Interaction Region (IR) for the the Electron Ion Collider (EIC) being built at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). The EIC will collide high energy and highly polarized hadron and electron beams with a center of mass energy up to 140 GeV with luminosities of up to 10^34 /cm^2/s. The IR, located at RHIC's IR6, is designed to meet the requirements of the nuclear physics community as outlined in [1]. A second IR is technically feasible but not part of the project.The magnet apertures are sufficiently large to allow desired collision products to reach the far-forward detectors; the electron magnet apertures in the rear direction are chosen to be large enough to pass the synchrotron radiation fan. In the forward direction the electron apertures are large enough for non-Gaussian tails.The paper discusses a number of recent recent changes to the design. The machine free region was recently increased from 9 to 9.5 m to allow for more space in the forward direction for the detector. The superconducting magnets on the forward side now operate at 1.9 K, which helps crosstalk and space issues.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

DOE-ART HT(G)R R&D Overview

The US Government currently has no plans to finance or build advanced nuclear reactors. Instead, the DOE performs research and development to raise the technological readiness of new concepts, fuels and component materials so that private industrial partners are more likely to design and build plants. Develop technologies that can enable new concepts and designs to achieve greater levels of safety and resilience, flexibility of use, sustainability and construction or operational affordability. Collaborate with industry to identify and conduct essential research to reduce technical risk associated with advanced reactor technologies. Sustain essential technical expertise and capabilities within national laboratories, universities, and industry to perform needed research. Collaborate with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Standards Developing Organizations (ASME, ANS, ANSI, etc.) to address gaps in codes and standards to support advanced reactor designs

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1995

Technical report series on global modeling and data assimilation. Volume 4: Documentation of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system, version 1

This report describes the analysis component of the Goddard Earth Observing System, Data Assimilation System, Version 1 (GEOS-1 DAS). The general features of the data assimilation system are outlined, followed by a thorough description of the statistical interpolation algorithm, including specification of error covariances and quality control of observations. We conclude with a discussion of the current status of development of the GEOS data assimilation system. The main components of GEOS-1 DAS are an atmospheric general circulation model and an Optimal Interpolation algorithm. The system is cycled using the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) technique in which analysis increments are introduced as time independent forcing terms in a forecast model integration. The system is capable of producing dynamically balanced states without the explicit use of initialization, as well as a time-continuous representation of non- observables such as precipitation and radiational fluxes. This version of the data assimilation system was used in the five-year reanalysis project completed in April 1994 by Goddard's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) Data from this reanalysis are available from the Goddard Distributed Active Center (DAAC), which is part of NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). For information on how to obtain these data sets, contact the Goddard DAAC at (301) 286-3209, EMAIL daac@gsfc.nasa.gov.

Suarez, Max J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Health Physics Research Reactor Criticality Accident Alarm System Benchmark Overview

From the countless critical experiments performed in the world during the past century, high-quality integral benchmarks experiments have been collected and gathered into the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments (ICSBEP Handbook), managed by the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Working Group. This information preservation and dissemination effort is crucial for reactor licensing as well as criticality and radiation transport modeling validation. This summary reports on the status of a tentative benchmark addition to the ICSBEP Handbook. The proposed benchmark arises from legacy operation data of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Health Physics Research Reactor (HPRR). The HPRR was a small, unmoderated, unshielded fast burst reactor that was used for research in health physics and radiobiology as well as teaching and training. As part of a comprehensive investigation of the available HPRR operation data and characteristics, different possibilities for use of the valuable results were studied. A critical experiment benchmark evaluation was performed, analyzing data coming from sub-critical and critical operation of the HPRR during operator training, steady-state irradiation of samples and before critical bursts. The results of the evaluation do not satisfy for the ICSBEP standards as the benchmark relative standard uncertainty is of about 4% for k eff , and the relative difference between sample calculations and expected k eff results is of about 1.5%. Due to those unsatisfactory results, it was decided not to pursue critical experiments evaluation of the HPRR presently and to focus instead on shielding type data for the creation of a criticality accident alarm system (CAAS) and shielding category benchmark, which is currently very scarce in the ICSBEP handbook—especially concerning critical, pulsed assembly, or reactor operation data. Several dosimetry and shielding experiments from HPRR burst operation were evaluated, with different benchmark metrics as sulfur fluence, Element 57 dose, or neutron fluence at different distances and under different shield materials conditions. An evaluation focusing on the Element 57 neutron dose as a benchmark metric was submitted to the ICSBEP Technical Review Group (TRG) meeting in October 2021, and the inclusion of the evaluation in the ICSBEP Handbook was deferred. The main change proposed by the international experiment evaluation experts is to use the neutron fluence measured by Bonner spheres as a benchmark metric. This represents a quantity closer to that actually measured by the experimentalists of the HPRR compared to the Element 57 dose, which adds another step of data transformation, thus potentially adding uncertainty to the benchmark. The evaluation has been updated and will be submitted to the 2022 ICSBEP TRG meeting for inclusion in the 2023 edition of the ICSBEP Handbook. The evaluation is performed using the KENO and MAVRIC combination from the SCALE 6.2.4 code suite which was previously used in similar CAAS benchmarks to allow for the use of variance reduction techniques.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

NASA NTRS2007

Why Not Space Tethers?

The Tethered Satellite System Space Shuttle missions, TSS-1 in 1993 and TSS-1R in 1996, were the height of space tether technology development. Since NASA's investment of some $200M and two Shuttle missions in those two pioneering missions, there have been several smaller tether flight experiments, but interest in this promising technology has waned within NASA as well as the DOD agencies. This is curious in view of the unique capabilities of space tether systems and the fact that they have been flight validated and shown to perform as, or better than, expected in earth orbit. While it is true that the TSS-1, TSS-1R and SEDS-2 missions experienced technical difficulties, the causes of these early developmental problems are now known to be design or materials flaws that are (1) unrelated to the basic viability of space tether technology, and (2) they are readily corrected. The purpose of this paper is to review the dynamic and electrodynamic fundamentals of space tethers and the unique capabilities they afford (that are enabling to certain types of space missions); to elucidate the nature, cause, and solution of the early developmental problems; and to provide an update on progress made in development of the technology. Finally, it is shown that (1) all problems experienced during early development of the technology now have solutions; and (2) the technology has been matured by advances made in strength and robustness of tether materials, high voltage engineering in the space environment, tether health and status monitoring, and the elimination of the broken tether hazard. In view of this, it is inexplicable why this flight-validated technology has not been utilized in the past decade, considering the powerful and unique capabilities that space tethers can afford that are, not only required to carryout, otherwise, unobtainable missions, but can also greatly reduce the cost of certain on-going space operations.

Stone, Noble H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Testing a Run-Time Assurance Framework Coupled with Integrated Risk Mitigation Capabilities for Autonomous Urban UAS Flights

The In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) Concept of Operations (ConOps) envisions new capabilities to monitor, assess, and mitigate flight safety risks. Systems will be tailored to mission type, vehicle/equipage type, operational environment, and safety risk tolerance. Within an IASMS framework, several capabilities may be implemented spanning three operational phases (pre-flight, in-flight, and post-flight/off-line); and consisting of lower level functions and information services which may reside onboard the aircraft, on third-party server(s), and/or on ground/operator station(s). Each capability will be designed to produce and disseminate safety-relevant information; perform detection, diagnosis, and prediction of unsafe situations; and/or execute mitigation actions when hazardous events warrant such changes. This paper focuses on recent testing of airborne capabilities that demonstrate inflight aspects of the overarching concept for autonomous unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) operations in urban environments. A flight test architecture is described that applies run-time assurance principles (e.g., executes independent of the unassured autopilot), real-time risk assessment, and a technique to execute contingencies if necessary either automatically or via pilot intervention. Several tests using small UAS were conducted to verify the assured in-flight risk mitigation capability. The paper draws significantly from a larger NASA technical report and recent prior conference papers, providing additional details. Data is analyzed for two representative flights to illustrate the performance for various sequential and simultaneous hazards used during testing. During each automated flight, several hazards are encountered at various points along the flight path. At each point, the hazard is mitigated by the system, with the vehicle then continuing to subsequent points. The paper concludes with lessons-learned regarding relevant aspects of the overarching IASMS concept and how it may be updated and further advanced in the future.

population activity↗

DOE OSTI2020

Scan of an Unpublished Report: "Fission Product Behavior During Severe LWR Accidents: Recommendations for the MELCOR Code System"

This document provides a scanned version of a 1987 SAND report that was never formally published. However, this report was referenced within the MELCOR Reference Manual and, therefore, provides historical information and technical basis for the MELCOR code. This document is being made available to permit users of the MELCOR code access to the information. The title page has been edited to prevent any confusion with regards to the possible documentation identifiers, such as the SAND report number or the intended date of publication. Beyond these modifications, a cover, distribution, and back cover are prepended and appended to the document to conform to modern SAND report style guidelines. The first four chapters of this report were updated and released under the title "Fission Product Behavior During Severe LWR Accidents: Recommendations for the MELCOR Code System. Volume I" and were made available by the U.S. NRC through the Adams database under accession number ML19227A327. No prior release of the remaining content of this report has occurred.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Modular, Crushed-Rock Thermal Energy Storage Pilot Design

The goal of this project, primarily funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, is to design a next-step pilot to advance near-term energy storage integrated with a fossil plant to provide a facility capable of being viable and effective in a market with growing penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE). Thermal energy storage (TES) represents an ideal technology for this purpose. The current effort will complete a feasibility study to prepare for the Phase II pre-front end engineering design (pre-FEED) for implementing a crushed-rock TES system integrated with a natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plant. The crushed rock storage technology, which is being developed by Brenmiller Energy, is a modular TES system termed bGen™, which can accommodate both thermal and electrical inputs and output steam, hot water, or hot air. For this application, the estimated efficiency is 80% thermal to thermal. The TES technology is being designed to operate on a slipstream from NYPA’s Eugene W. Zeltmann Power Project (Zeltmann) natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plant. The projected size of the system will be up to 4 MWe with at least 4 hours of storage duration, or 16 MWh-e total. Final sizing is being determined during the ongoing feasibility study. The next-step pilot being designed as part of the current project will represent a 5-fold increase in scale for this TES technology, and will be used to validate the technology’s ability to provide effective and economical energy storage. This pilot would represent the next-to-last demonstration scale before the technology could be commercial ready at GWh-e scales in the 2030 timeframe. This project is expected to design the critical next-step pilot, which will be undertaken in real-world operating conditions to better determine the crushed rock TES technology’s ability to be integrated with an NGCC plant and assess degradation over transient cycling at rates befitting various marketplaces. The crushed-rock TES pilot design is a technically feasible next step in the development of the technology and is built upon years of prior testing and demonstration. The proposed TES technology was developed by Brenmiller over the last 8 years and has been tested in 3 generations of demonstration units at various sites, globally. During this field testing, different characteristics and performance of the technology were validated, including the following key features: energy storage capacity, energy storage charge/discharge rate, energy storage loses, energy storage mechanical testing. This presentation will provide an update on the results of the conceptual design study for the modular crushed-rock TES system, integrated with a NGCC power plant.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Plant-specific Model and Data Analysis using Dynamic Security Modeling and Simulation

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large on-site physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an update on the progress in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available force-on-force simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework or MASS-DEF. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report does not contain any plant's sensitive information and/or Safeguards Information. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2023

Robotic and Crewed Mars Missions Increasing the Demand for Planetary Protection Technology Needs

Planetary protection (PP) policy seeks to avoid harmful contamination by limiting biological and relevant organic contamination from spacecraft as well as preventing adverse changes to Earth’s biosphere when extraterrestial samples are brought back to Earth. The PP policy at NASA was updated in 2021 (NPR 8715.24) and 2022 (NASA-STD-8719.27) to enable missions by expanding the decades old prescriptive requirements to allow for an option of adopting performance-based requirements that are objectivesdriven, risk-informed and case-assured. In parallel, the final PP knowledge gap workshop was completed representing the international consensus on the key areas to be considered in developing crew PP policy. These knowledge gaps focused on key technology development areas in 1) microbial and human health monitoring, 2) technical and operations needed for contamination control and 3) natural transport of contamination on Mars. As robotic missions start to implement performance-based approaches and research and technology efforts commence to inform crew policy the demand for data quality driven verification and validation in relevant space environments. Examples of the types of testing that is envisioned includes test as you fly validation and verification of decontamination systems in a relevant on-orbit and Mars environment, developing lethality curves of terrestrial organisms to further our understanding of the biocidal impacts of Mars and the space environment, and particle transport model validation and verification. Thus, the PP discipline has identified the need for groundbased space environments to perform preliminary testing as validation and verification of flight systems and to advance the technology readiness level prior to further testing on-orbit or lunar environments to prepare for Mars.

J. Nick Benardini↗

NASA NTRS2024

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris

Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work, referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current analysis contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Jericho Locke↗

NASA NTRS2024

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris

Presentation accompanying the technical report with the same name. The abstract for the report and the full study is repeated below. Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work, referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current analysis contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Jericho Locke↗

DOE OSTI2025

Front-of-Meter Model Results

These files contains aggregations of key variables from the NREL Distributed Wind Futures Study using full parcel level data. These variables describe total technical and economic potential for distributed wind turbine deployment. Aggregations are available at the (1) county, (2) zipcode (zip code tabulation area or zcta), and (3) US Census block group level. Each scenario is coded with the scenario name (e.g., baseline) and year (e.g., 2022). Those files postfixed with 'econpot' contain results for only those parcels that are economically viable while the files postfixed with 'techpot' include results for all parcels that are technically feasible. Hence these correspond to technoeconomic and technical potential respectively. The data are available as CSV or Geopackage. Columns in the files are as follows: * geoid: geographic identifier (FIPS code or similar) * min_techpot_sum_kw: technical potential for all parcels in kW using turbines downsized to demand when appropriate * max_techpot_sum_kw: technical potential for all parcels in kW without downsizing turbines * aep_sum_kwh: annual energy production estimate in kWh * cf_mean_ratio: mean capacity factor * lcoe_mean_cents_per_kwh: mean levelized cost of energy for parcels in geography in cents per kWh * lcoe_std_cents_per_kwh: standard deviation of the above * parcel_area_sum_acres: total area of viable parcels in acres * n_turbines: number of cited turbines (one per viable parcel currently) Note: These are preliminary results from the full-parcel 2024 update of the Distributed Wind Energy Futures study. Please take care when making use of the data, and feel free to contact the team with any questions. Full documentation in support of these data is in progress and will follow.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Parsimonious Inference Information-Theoretic Foundations for a Complete Theory of Machine Learning (CIS-LDRD Project 218313 Final Technical Report)

This work examines how we may cast machine learning within a complete Bayesian framework to quantify and suppress explanatory complexity from first principles. Our investigation into both the philosophy and mathematics of rational belief leads us to emphasize the critical role of Bayesian inference in learning well-justified predictions within a rigorous and complete extended logic. The Bayesian framework allows us to coherently account for evidence in the learned plausibility of potential explanations. As an extended logic, the Bayesian paradigm regards probability as a notion of degrees of truth. In order to satisfy critical properties of probability as a coherent measure, as well as maintain consistency with binary propositional logic, we arrive at Bayes' Theorem as the only justifiable mechanism to update our beliefs to account for empiracle evidence. Yet, in the machine learning paradigm, where explanations are unconstrained algorithmic abstractions, we arrive at a critical challenge: Bayesian inference requires prior belief. Conventional approaches fail to yield a consistent framework in which we could compare prior plausibility among the infinities of potential choices in learning architectures. The difficulty of articulating well-justified prior belief over abstract models is the provinence of memorization in traditional machine learning training practices. This becomes exceptionally problematic in the context of limited datasets, when we wish to learn justifiable predictions from only a small amount of data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗