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Input-output oriented computation algorithms for the control of large flexible structures

An overview is given of work in progress aimed at developing computational algorithms addressing two important aspects in the control of large flexible space structures; namely, the selection and placement of sensors and actuators, and the resulting multivariable control law design problem. The issue of sensor/actuator set selection is particularly crucial to obtaining a satisfactory control design, as clearly a poor choice will inherently limit the degree to which good control can be achieved. With regard to control law design, the researchers are driven by concerns stemming from the practical issues associated with eventual implementation of multivariable control laws, such as reliability, limit protection, multimode operation, sampling rate selection, processor throughput, etc. Naturally, the burden imposed by dealing with these aspects of the problem can be reduced by ensuring that the complexity of the compensator is minimized. Our approach to these problems is based on extensions to input/output oriented techniques that have proven useful in the design of multivariable control systems for aircraft engines. In particular, researchers are exploring the use of relative gain analysis and the condition number as a means of quantifying the process of sensor/actuator selection and placement for shape control of a large space platform.

Minto, K. D.↗

A versatile system for processing geostationary satellite data with run-time visualization capability

To better predict global climate change, scientists are developing climate models that require interdisciplinary and collaborative efforts in their building. We are currently involved in several such projects but will briefly discuss activities in support of two such complementary projects: the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program of the Department of Energy and Sequoia 2000, a joint venture of the University of California, the private sector, and government agencies. Our contribution to the ARM program is to investigate the role of clouds on the top of the atmosphere and on surface radiance fields through the data analysis of surface and satellite observations and complex modeling of the interaction of radiation with clouds. One of our first ARM research activities involves the computation of the broadband shortwave surface irradiance from satellite observations. Geostationary satellite images centered over the first ARM observation site are received hourly over the Internet network and processed in real time to compute hourly and daily composite shortwave irradiance fields. The images and the results are transferred via a high-speed network to the Sequoia 2000 storage facility in Berkeley, where they are archived These satellite-derived results are compared with the surface observations to evaluate the accuracy of the satellite estimate and the spatial representation of the surface observations. In developing the software involved in calculating the surface shortwave irradiance, we have produced an environment whereby we can easily modify and monitor the data processing as required. Through the principles of modular programming, we have developed software that is easily modified as new algorithms for computation are developed or input data availability changes. In addition, the software was designed so that it could be run from an interactive, icon-driven, graphical interface, TCL-TK, developed by Sequoia 2000 participants. In this way, the data flow can be interactively assessed and altered as needed. In this environment, the intermediate data processing 'images' can be viewed, enabling the investigator to easily monitor the various data processing steps as they progress. Additionally, this environment allows the rapid testing of new processing modules and allows their effects to be visually compared with previous results.

Landsfeld, M.↗

Physics-Based Methods of Failure Analysis and Diagnostics in Human Space Flight

The Integrated Health Management (IHM) for the future aerospace systems requires to interface models of multiple subsystems in an efficient and accurate information environment at the earlier stages of system design. The complexity of modern aeronautic and aircraft systems (including e.g. the power distribution, flight control, solid and liquid motors) dictates employment of hybrid models and high-level reasoners for analysing mixed continuous and discrete information flow involving multiple modes of operation in uncertain environments, unknown state variables, heterogeneous software and hardware components. To provide the information link between key design/performance parameters and high-level reasoners we rely on development of multi-physics performance models, distributed sensors networks, and fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) technologies in close collaboration with system designers. The main challenges of our research are related to the in-flight assessment of the structural stability, engine performance, and trajectory control. The main goal is to develop an intelligent IHM that not only enhances components and system reliability, but also provides a post-flight feedback helping to optimize design of the next generation of aerospace systems. Our efforts are concentrated on several directions of the research. One of the key components of our strategy is an innovative approach to the diagnostics/prognostics based on the real time dynamical inference (DI) technologies extended to encompass hybrid systems with hidden state trajectories. The major investments are into the multiphysics performance modelling that provides an access of the FD&P technologies to the main performance parameters of e.g. solid and liquid rocket motors and composite materials of the nozzle and case. Some of the recent results of our research are discussed in this chapter. We begin by introducing the problem of dynamical inference of stochastic nonlinear models and reviewing earlier results. Next, we present our analytical approach to the solution of this problem based on the path integral formulation. The resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model parameters, provides optimal compensation for the effects of dynamical noise, and is robust for a broad range of dynamical models. In the following Section the strengths of the algorithm are illustrated illustrated by inferring the parameters of the stochastic Lorenz system and comparing the results with those of earlier research. Next, we discuss a number of recent results in application to the development of the IHM for aerospace system. Firstly, we apply dynamical inference approach to a solution of classical three tank problems with mixed unknown continuous and binary parameters. The problem is considered in the context of ground support system for filling fuel tanks of liquid rocket motors. It is shown that the DI algorithm is well suited for successful solution of a hybrid version of this benchmark problem even in the presence of additional periodic and stochastic perturbation of unknown strength. Secondly, we illustrate our approach by its application to an analysis of the nozzle fault in a solid rocket motor (SRM). The internal ballistics of the SRM is modelled as a set of one-dimensional partial differential equations coupled to the dynamics of the propellant regression. In this example we are specifically focussed on the inference of discrete and continuous parameters of the nozzle blocking fault and on the possibility of an application of the DI algorithm to reducing the probability of "misses" of an on-board FD&P for SRM. In the next section re-contact problem caused by first stage/upper stage separation failure is discussed. The reaction forces imposed on the nozzle of the upper stage during the re-contact and their connection to the nozzle damage and to the thrust vector control (TVC) signal are obtained. It is shown that transient impact induced torquean be modelled as a response of an effective damped oscillator. A possible application of the DI algorithm to the inference of damage parameters and predicting fault dynamics ahead of time using the actuator signal is discussed. Finally, we formulate Bayesian inferential framework for development of the IHM system for in-flight structural health monitoring (SHM) of composite materials. We consider the signal generated by piezoelectric actuator mounted on composite structure generating elastic waves in it. The signal received by the sensor is than compared with the baseline signal. The possibility of damage inference is discussed in the context of development of the SHM.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.↗

Application Program Interface for the Orion Aerodynamics Database

The Application Programming Interface (API) for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Aerodynamic Database has been developed to provide the developers of software an easily implemented, fully self-contained method of accessing the CEV Aerodynamic Database for use in their analysis and simulation tools. The API is programmed in C and provides a series of functions to interact with the database, such as initialization, selecting various options, and calculating the aerodynamic data. No special functions (file read/write, table lookup) are required on the host system other than those included with a standard ANSI C installation. It reads one or more files of aero data tables. Previous releases of aerodynamic databases for space vehicles have only included data tables and a document of the algorithm and equations to combine them for the total aerodynamic forces and moments. This process required each software tool to have a unique implementation of the database code. Errors or omissions in the documentation, or errors in the implementation, led to a lengthy and burdensome process of having to debug each instance of the code. Additionally, input file formats differ for each space vehicle simulation tool, requiring the aero database tables to be reformatted to meet the tool s input file structure requirements. Finally, the capabilities for built-in table lookup routines vary for each simulation tool. Implementation of a new database may require an update to and verification of the table lookup routines. This may be required if the number of dimensions of a data table exceeds the capability of the simulation tools built-in lookup routines. A single software solution was created to provide an aerodynamics software model that could be integrated into other simulation and analysis tools. The highly complex Orion aerodynamics model can then be quickly included in a wide variety of tools. The API code is written in ANSI C for ease of portability to a wide variety of systems. The input data files are in standard formatted ASCII, also for improved portability. The API contains its own implementation of multidimensional table reading and lookup routines. The same aerodynamics input file can be used without modification on all implementations. The turnaround time from aerodynamics model release to a working implementation is significantly reduced

Robinson, Philip E.↗

Feasibility of Estimating Snow Depth in Complex Terrain Using Satellite Lidar Altimetry

Satellite retrievals of snow depth and water equivalent (SWE) are critical for monitoring watershed scale processes around the world. However, the problem is especially challenging in mountainous regions where complex heterogeneities limit the utility of low resolution satellite sensors. The Geoscience Laser Altimeter Sensor (GLAS) aboard the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) collected surface elevation data along near-repeat reference transects over land areas from 2003-2009. Although intended for monitoring ice caps and sea ice, the seven year global GLAS data base has provided unprecedented opportunity to test the capability of satellite lidar technology for estimating snow depth over land. GLAS single track and low repeat frequency does not provide data sufficient for operational estimates. However, its comparatively small footprint size of -65 m and its database of seasonal repeat observations during both snow and no-snow conditions have been sufficient to evaluate the potential of spacebased lidar altimetry for estimating snow depth. Recent analysis of ICESat elevations in the Uinta Mountains in NE Utah provide encouraging results for watershed scale estimates of snow depth. Research reported here focuses on the sensitivity of several versions of an ICESat snow depth algorithm to a range of landscape types defined by vegetation cover, slope and roughness. Results are compared to available SNOTEL data.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗

Accurate Time-Dependent Traveling-Wave Tube Model Developed for Computational Bit-Error-Rate Testing

The phenomenal growth of the satellite communications industry has created a large demand for traveling-wave tubes (TWT's) operating with unprecedented specifications requiring the design and production of many novel devices in record time. To achieve this, the TWT industry heavily relies on computational modeling. However, the TWT industry's computational modeling capabilities need to be improved because there are often discrepancies between measured TWT data and that predicted by conventional two-dimensional helical TWT interaction codes. This limits the analysis and design of novel devices or TWT's with parameters differing from what is conventionally manufactured. In addition, the inaccuracy of current computational tools limits achievable TWT performance because optimized designs require highly accurate models. To address these concerns, a fully three-dimensional, time-dependent, helical TWT interaction model was developed using the electromagnetic particle-in-cell code MAFIA (Solution of MAxwell's equations by the Finite-Integration-Algorithm). The model includes a short section of helical slow-wave circuit with excitation fed by radiofrequency input/output couplers, and an electron beam contained by periodic permanent magnet focusing. A cutaway view of several turns of the three-dimensional helical slow-wave circuit with input/output couplers is shown. This has been shown to be more accurate than conventionally used two-dimensional models. The growth of the communications industry has also imposed a demand for increased data rates for the transmission of large volumes of data. To achieve increased data rates, complex modulation and multiple access techniques are employed requiring minimum distortion of the signal as it is passed through the TWT. Thus, intersymbol interference (ISI) becomes a major consideration, as well as suspected causes such as reflections within the TWT. To experimentally investigate effects of the physical TWT on ISI would be prohibitively expensive, as it would require manufacturing numerous amplifiers, in addition to acquiring the required digital hardware. As an alternative, the time-domain TWT interaction model developed here provides the capability to establish a computational test bench where ISI or bit error rate can be simulated as a function of TWT operating parameters and component geometries. Intermodulation products, harmonic generation, and backward waves can also be monitored with the model for similar correlations. The advancements in computational capabilities and corresponding potential improvements in TWT performance may prove to be the enabling technologies for realizing unprecedented data rates for near real time transmission of the increasingly larger volumes of data demanded by planned commercial and Government satellite communications applications. This work is in support of the Cross Enterprise Technology Development Program in Headquarters' Advanced Technology & Mission Studies Division and the Air Force Office of Scientific Research Small Business Technology Transfer programs.

Kory, Carol L.↗

Analyzing Natural Language Context in Human-Machine Teaming using Supervised Machine Learning

Building a foundation for trustworthiness and trust verification in multi-asset teaming is the research challenge of Autonomy Teaming and TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability (ATTRACTOR). The Design Reference Mission (DRM) for ATTRACTOR is a search and rescue mission objective governed by a multi-member team consisting of human and machine operators. A crucial component to the effort is the communication between humans and autonomous agents throughout both planning and execution stages of the mission. Intuitive communication methods and modalities are posited as critical enablers for certifying trust and trustworthiness. This paper reports on the data collection and analysis conducted in support of the Human Informed Natural-language GANs Evaluation (HINGE)project to attain explainable and trusted communication between human-machine assets. Two identically curated image description datasets were acquired for HINGE, both consisting of two unique input modalities (typed vs. verbal) and retrieved in two distinct contexts (general vs. specific). The gathered datasets were assessed and compared using Parts-of-Speech (POS)features, sentence similarity metrics, and linguistic analysis. Then, the datasets were modeled and tested separately and in combination with one another using machine learning algorithms. The comparison and testing results reveal a superior dataset, by which a preferred context and input is understood, for generating image representations of missing persons using a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN).

Bryan A Barrows↗

Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

Ocean observations with EOS/MODIS: Algorithm development and post launch studies

Several significant accomplishments were made during the present reporting period. (1) Initial simulations to understand the applicability of the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) 1380 nm band for removing the effects of stratospheric aerosols and thin cirrus clouds were completed using a model for an aged volcanic aerosol. The results suggest that very simple procedures requiring no a priori knowledge of the optical properties of the stratospheric aerosol may be as effective as complex procedures requiring full knowledge of the aerosol properties, except the concentration which is estimated from the reflectance at 1380 nm. The limitations of this conclusion will be examined in the next reporting period; (2) The lookup tables employed in the implementation of the atmospheric correction algorithm have been modified in several ways intended to improve the accuracy and/or speed of processing. These have been delivered to R. Evans for implementation into the MODIS prototype processing algorithm for testing; (3) A method was developed for removal of the effects of the O2 'A' absorption band from SeaWiFS band 7 (745-785 nm). This is important in that SeaWiFS imagery will be used as a test data set for the MODIS atmospheric correction algorithm over the oceans; and (4) Construction of a radiometer, and associated deployment boom, for studying the spectral reflectance of oceanic whitecaps at sea was completed. The system was successfully tested on a cruise off Hawaii on which whitecaps were plentiful during October-November. This data set is now under analysis.

Gordon, Howard R.↗

Design for testability and diagnosis at the system-level

The growing complexity of full-scale systems has surpassed the capabilities of most simulation software to provide detailed models or gate-level failure analyses. The process of system-level diagnosis approaches the fault-isolation problem in a manner that differs significantly from the traditional and exhaustive failure mode search. System-level diagnosis is based on a functional representation of the system. For example, one can exercise one portion of a radar algorithm (the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) function) by injecting several standard input patterns and comparing the results to standardized output results. An anomalous output would point to one of several items (including the FFT circuit) without specifying the gate or failure mode. For system-level repair, identifying an anomalous chip is sufficient. We describe here an information theoretic and dependency modeling approach that discards much of the detailed physical knowledge about the system and analyzes its information flow and functional interrelationships. The approach relies on group and flow associations and, as such, is hierarchical. Its hierarchical nature allows the approach to be applicable to any level of complexity and to any repair level. This approach has been incorporated in a product called STAMP (System Testability and Maintenance Program) which was developed and refined through more than 10 years of field-level applications to complex system diagnosis. The results have been outstanding, even spectacular in some cases. In this paper we describe system-level testability, system-level diagnoses, and the STAMP analysis approach, as well as a few STAMP applications.

Simpson, William R.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-33433-DND

Reducing aircraft noise is a major objective in the field of computational aeroacoustics. When designing next generation quiet aircraft, it is important to be able to accurately and efficiently predict the acoustic scattering by an aircraft body from a given noise source. Acoustic liners are an effective tool for aircraft noise reduction, and are characterized by a complex valued frequency-dependent impedance. Converted into the time-domain using Fourier transforms, an impedance boundary condition can be used to simulate the acoustic scattering of geometric bodies treated with acoustic liners. This work considers using either an impedance boundary condition or admittance boundary condition to allow acoustic scattering problems to be modeled with geometries consisting of both un-lined and lined surfaces; admittance is defined to be the inverse of impedance. Three different acoustic liner models will be discussed: the Extended Helmholtz Resonator Model, the Three-Parameter Impedance Model, and a Broadband Model. In the Extended Helmholtz Resonator Model and Three-Parameter Impedance Model, the liner impedance is specified at a single frequency; the Broadband Model allows for the investigation of multiple frequencies simultaneously. The impedance and admittance boundary conditions for each model will be derived and coupled with a time-domain boundary integral equation. The scattering solution will be obtained iteratively using spatial and temporal basis functions. Stability will be demonstrated through eigenvalue analysis. Moreover, fast algorithms and high performance computing are considered to both assess and reduce the computational cost of the simulation.

Michelle E Rodio↗

Certifying Auto-Generated Flight Code

Model-based design and automated code generation are being used increasingly at NASA. Many NASA projects now use MathWorks Simulink and Real-Time Workshop for at least some of their modeling and code development. However, there are substantial obstacles to more widespread adoption of code generators in safety-critical domains. Since code generators are typically not qualified, there is no guarantee that their output is correct, and consequently the generated code still needs to be fully tested and certified. Moreover, the regeneration of code can require complete recertification, which offsets many of the advantages of using a generator. Indeed, manual review of autocode can be more challenging than for hand-written code. Since the direct V&V of code generators is too laborious and complicated due to their complex (and often proprietary) nature, we have developed a generator plug-in to support the certification of the auto-generated code. Specifically, the AutoCert tool supports certification by formally verifying that the generated code is free of different safety violations, by constructing an independently verifiable certificate, and by explaining its analysis in a textual form suitable for code reviews. The generated documentation also contains substantial tracing information, allowing users to trace between model, code, documentation, and V&V artifacts. This enables missions to obtain assurance about the safety and reliability of the code without excessive manual V&V effort and, as a consequence, eases the acceptance of code generators in safety-critical contexts. The generation of explicit certificates and textual reports is particularly well-suited to supporting independent V&V. The primary contribution of this approach is the combination of human-friendly documentation with formal analysis. The key technical idea is to exploit the idiomatic nature of auto-generated code in order to automatically infer logical annotations. The annotation inference algorithm itself is generic, and parametrized with respect to a library of coding patterns that depend on the safety policies and the code generator. The patterns characterize the notions of definitions and uses that are specific to the given safety property. For example, for initialization safety, definitions correspond to variable initializations while uses are statements which read a variable, whereas for array bounds safety, definitions are the array declarations, while uses are statements which access an array variable. The inferred annotations are thus highly dependent on the actual program and the properties being proven. The annotations, themselves, need not be trusted, but are crucial to obtain the automatic formal verification of the safety properties without requiring access to the internals of the code generator. The approach has been applied to both in-house and commercial code generators, but is independent of the particular generator used. It is currently being adapted to flight code generated using MathWorks Real-Time Workshop, an automatic code generator that translates from Simulink/Stateflow models into embedded C code.

Denney, Ewen↗

Discrete Deterministic and Stochastic Petri Nets

Petri nets augmented with timing specifications gained a wide acceptance in the area of performance and reliability evaluation of complex systems exhibiting concurrency, synchronization, and conflicts. The state space of time-extended Petri nets is mapped onto its basic underlying stochastic process, which can be shown to be Markovian under the assumption of exponentially distributed firing times. The integration of exponentially and non-exponentially distributed timing is still one of the major problems for the analysis and was first attacked for continuous time Petri nets at the cost of structural or analytical restrictions. We propose a discrete deterministic and stochastic Petri net (DDSPN) formalism with no imposed structural or analytical restrictions where transitions can fire either in zero time or according to arbitrary firing times that can be represented as the time to absorption in a finite absorbing discrete time Markov chain (DTMC). Exponentially distributed firing times are then approximated arbitrarily well by geometric distributions. Deterministic firing times are a special case of the geometric distribution. The underlying stochastic process of a DDSPN is then also a DTMC, from which the transient and stationary solution can be obtained by standard techniques. A comprehensive algorithm and some state space reduction techniques for the analysis of DDSPNs are presented comprising the automatic detection of conflicts and confusions, which removes a major obstacle for the analysis of discrete time models.

MATHEMATICAL MODELS↗

Proceedings of the Sixth NASA Langley Formal Methods (LFM) Workshop

Today's verification techniques are hard-pressed to scale with the ever-increasing complexity of safety critical systems. Within the field of aeronautics alone, we find the need for verification of algorithms for separation assurance, air traffic control, auto-pilot, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), adaptive avionics, automated decision authority, and much more. Recent advances in formal methods have made verifying more of these problems realistic. Thus we need to continually re-assess what we can solve now and identify the next barriers to overcome. Only through an exchange of ideas between theoreticians and practitioners from academia to industry can we extend formal methods for the verification of ever more challenging problem domains. This volume contains the extended abstracts of the talks presented at LFM 2008: The Sixth NASA Langley Formal Methods Workshop held on April 30 - May 2, 2008 in Newport News, Virginia, USA. The topics of interest that were listed in the call for abstracts were: advances in formal verification techniques; formal models of distributed computing; planning and scheduling; automated air traffic management; fault tolerance; hybrid systems/hybrid automata; embedded systems; safety critical applications; safety cases; accident/safety analysis.

Rozier, Kristin Yvonne↗

An Application of Flexible Multibody Simulations to Space Launch Systems Liftoff Pad Separation and Umbilical Disconnect

A flexible multibody dynamics approach is applied to the Space Launch System (SLS) liftoff Coupled Loads Analysis (CLA), enabling the inclusion of a large array of component nonlinearities with extreme computational efficiency. The nonlinearities include the cryogenic induced preloads due to the large rotations of the aft struts connecting the Core Stage (CS) to the boosters, the contact/separation and potential re-contact at the booster aft skirt to Mobile Launcher(ML) interface, contact/separation and potential re-contact at the ML/extensible columns interfaces, secondary disconnect of the CS umbilicals including the LOX and LH2 Tail Service Mast Umbilicals (TSMUs), and the disconnect of the upper stage umbilical, the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage Umbilical (ICPSU). The ICPSU disconnect involves algorithms simulating the winch motors reeling lanyard ropes, the nonlinear modeling of ropes and hoses, the disconnect and capture of multiple umbilical ground plates by catch-nets (geometrically nonlinear models), and the large rotations of the ML gantry in order to track clearances between the lifting SLS vehicle and umbilicals rotating out of the way. The flexible multibody dynamics framework utilized for these simulations provided a systematic and efficient framework for adding complex nonlinearities at the system level which would have otherwise not been possible in standard CLAs or would have to be treated by separate local analyses thereby not accounting for the coupled system behavior.

Application↗

Discovery and Analysis of Rare High-Impact Failure Modes using Adversarial RL-Informed Sampling

Adaptive learning agents have tremendous potential to handle critical tasks currently performed by humans. Unfortunately, due to their complexity, it can be difficult to verify that these learning agents do not have critical failure modes. Standard verification and validation methods often do not apply directly to learning agents and Monte Carlo methods have difficulty covering even a small fraction of the state space, especially in multiagent systems or over long time horizons. To overcome this difficulty, we demonstrate an adaptive stress-testing method based on reinforcement learning of correlations that raise the probability of failure. This approach has three key properties: (1) it is able to find rare failure modes with far greater sample efficiency than Monte Carlo methods, (2) it can estimate the true probability of a failure mode despite the inherent bias in the learning method, and (3) it is capable of learning and resampling compact representations of multimodal failure spaces. These properties are important in practice as we need to find disparate failure modes while accounting for their actual relevance. This is a significant advantage over traditional adaptive stress testing methods that give abstract likelihoods of particular failure instances, but cannot estimate the probability of a broader failure mode. We test our algorithm on a simple problem from the aviation domain where an autonomous aircraft lands in gusty wind conditions. The results suggest that we can find failure modes with far fewer samples than the Monte Carlo approach and simultaneously estimate the probability of failure.

Validation↗

Discovery and Analysis of Rare High-Impact Failure Modes using Adversarial RL-Informed Sampling

Adaptive learning agents have tremendous potential to handle critical tasks currently performed by humans. Unfortunately, due to their complexity, it can be difficult to verify that these learning agents do not have critical failure modes. Standard verification and validation methods often do not apply directly to learning agents and Monte Carlo methods have difficulty covering even a small fraction of the state space, especially in multiagent systems or over long time horizons. To overcome this difficulty, we demonstrate an adaptive stress-testing method based on reinforcement learning of correlations that raise the probability of failure. This approach has three key properties: (1) it is able to find rare failure modes with far greater sample efficiency than Monte Carlo methods, (2) it can estimate the true probability of a failure mode despite the inherent bias in the learning method, and (3) it is capable of learning and resampling compact representations of multimodal failure spaces. These properties are important in practice as we need to find disparate failure modes while accounting for their actual relevance. This is a significant advantage over traditional adaptive stress testing methods that give abstract likelihoods of particular failure instances, but cannot estimate the probability of a broader failure mode. We test our algorithm on a simple problem from the aviation domain where an autonomous aircraft lands in gusty wind conditions. The results suggest that we can find failure modes with far fewer samples than the Monte Carlo approach and simultaneously estimate the probability of failure.

Validation↗

Dynamical Approach Study of Spurious Numerics in Nonlinear Computations

The last two decades have been an era when computation is ahead of analysis and when very large scale practical computations are increasingly used in poorly understood multiscale complex nonlinear physical problems and non-traditional fields. Ensuring a higher level of confidence in the predictability and reliability (PAR) of these numerical simulations could play a major role in furthering the design, understanding, affordability and safety of our next generation air and space transportation systems, and systems for planetary and atmospheric sciences, and in understanding the evolution and origin of life. The need to guarantee PAR becomes acute when computations offer the ONLY way of solving these types of data limited problems. Employing theory from nonlinear dynamical systems, some building blocks to ensure a higher level of confidence in PAR of numerical simulations have been revealed by the author and world expert collaborators in relevant fields. Five building blocks with supporting numerical examples were discussed. The next step is to utilize knowledge gained by including nonlinear dynamics, bifurcation and chaos theories as an integral part of the numerical process. The third step is to design integrated criteria for reliable and accurate algorithms that cater to the different multiscale nonlinear physics. This includes but is not limited to the construction of appropriate adaptive spatial and temporal discretizations that are suitable for the underlying governing equations. In addition, a multiresolution wavelets approach for adaptive numerical dissipation/filter controls for high speed turbulence, acoustics and combustion simulations will be sought. These steps are corner stones for guarding against spurious numerical solutions that are solutions of the discretized counterparts but are not solutions of the underlying governing equations.

Yee, H. C.↗