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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2024

Performance of Two Battery Prognostic Applications used by Two Octocopters for Safe Low Altitude Autonomous Flight Operations

This paper addresses the problem of building trust in online predictions of the remaining available flying time for two different electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (eUAVs) powered by lithium-ion-polymer batteries. Flight tests for various automation research missions for the two vehicles were monitored using two on-board battery health management applications to make predictions of the remaining flying time (RFT) for each eUAV and to predict the state of the battery. Playback of the voltage, current and temperature profiles of the battery discharge were used to assess the accuracy of the estimation of the voltage and the charge states of the models as well as the estimate of the RFT. The reference ground truth values were the observed landing time and the measured battery pack resting pack voltage 20 minutes after the flight. The predicted RFT, state of charge (SoC), and state of energy (SoE) were compared with the observed results. Noise values of one standard deviation from the mean values of the internal charge states of the battery model during a reference run were used to vary the states during simulation. One application used an equivalent circuit model of the electrical dynamics of the battery pack, and the other application used a reduced-order electrochemistry model. The variation of the model state components was compared to the variation in the estimate of the RFT and the variation in the SoE to estimate a confidence factor. Variation in the estimates caused by factors affecting the off-line laboratory parameter identification experiments is considered. Variation in the estimates due to environmental factors are discussed.

Assurance↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving the Performance of NEML2 with Modern Graph Compilation Backends

NEML2 vectorizes constitutive-model evaluation for large-scale multiphysics simulation, using PyTorch as its tensor backend so that a batch of material-point updates runs on CPU or GPU through a single implementation. In the two prior reports in this series it was a C++-native library, deployed through TorchScript tracing and just-in-time (JIT) compilation; it has since been rewritten from the ground up into a Python-native library deployed through Ahead-of-Time Inductor (AOTInductor), a modern PyTorch graph-compilation backend. The rewrite is driven by a persistent tension, not a language preference: NEML2 composes constitutive models at runtime from a registry of small, independently-authored pieces, and that flexibility is difficult to reconcile with the compile-time knowledge an efficient GPU kernel needs. This report documents the rewrite and the investment that accompanied it: the AOTInductor export pipeline that turns a Python-authored model into a portable, Python-free compiled artifact loadable from pure C++; the eager and compiled runtimes and the new implicit solver layer built on them; a head-to-head benchmark of legacy JIT against AOTInductor; the physics-model catalog and its worked examples; the developer tooling; and the corresponding overhaul of MOOSE’s NEML2 integration that lets MOOSE consume it. A central objective is to examine whether modern PyTorch graph-compilation backends are effective for MOOSE GPU integration. The benchmark answers directly: AOTInductor outperforms legacy JIT on every GPU scenario measured, by 1.0–4.5×. Modern graph-compilation backends are effective for MOOSE GPU integration, and AOTInductor specifically – not compilation in the abstract – is why.

Hu, Gary (Tianchen) [Argonne National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-resolution modeling of indoor radon exposure with uncertainty quantification in Utah

Indoor radon accounts for 37% of population-level exposure to ionizing radiation in the United States. However, radon metrics are typically reported at coarse spatial scales, potentially obscuring meaningful local variation. We developed a high-resolution modeling framework to estimate indoor radon concentrations across Utah while explicitly quantifying predictive uncertainty. A total of 19,497 residential radon measurements collected between 2006 and 2017 were combined with environmental and housing characteristics and analyzed using a geospatial neural network that accommodates spatial dependence and nonlinear associations. Predictions were generated on a uniform hexagonal grid at 0.73 km2 resolution (H3 level 8). Out-of-sample predictions aggregated to the H3 level 8 grid showed good agreement with observed concentrations (Pearson r=0.64), while household-level predictions exhibited more moderate agreement (r=0.45). The model produced well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, with 24.1% of held-out observations exceeding the predicted 75th-percentile threshold. Maps of predicted radon concentrations and the probability of exceeding the U.S. EPA action level of 148 Bq/m3 (4 pCi/L) revealed substantial fine-scale spatial heterogeneity that was not apparent in conventional coarse-resolution summaries, with greater local variability observed in densely monitored urban counties than in sparsely sampled regions. High-resolution radon models that explicitly quantify uncertainty provide a useful framework for characterizing the spatial distribution of indoor radon and identifying areas of elevated exceedance risk. These findings highlight the value of fine-scale monitoring data and uncertainty-aware modeling approaches for radon exposure assessment, environmental risk characterization, and radon-related health research.

Wu, Yunhan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178842994)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Charm and bottom hadrons in hot hadronic matter

Heavy quarks, and the hadrons containing them, are excellent probes of the QCD medium formed in high-energy heavy-ion collisions, as they provide essential information on the transport properties of the medium and how quarks color-neutralize into hadrons. Large theoretical and phenomenological efforts have been dedicated thus far to assess the diffusion of charm and bottom quarks in the quark–gluon plasma and their subsequent hadronization into heavy-flavor (HF) hadrons. However, the fireball formed in heavy-ion collisions also features an extended hadronic phase, and therefore any quantitative analysis of experimental observables needs to account for the rescattering of charm and bottom hadrons. This is further reinforced by the presence of a QCD cross-over transition and the notion that the interaction strength is maximal in the vicinity of the pseudo-critical temperature. We review existing approaches for evaluating the interactions of open HF hadrons in a hadronic heat bath and the pertinent results for scattering amplitudes, spectral functions and transport coefficients. While most of the work to date has focused on D -mesons, we also discuss excited states as well as HF baryons and the bottom sector. Both the HF hadro-chemistry and bottom observables will play a key role in future experimental measurements. We also conduct a survey of transport calculations in heavy-ion collisions that have included effects of hadronic HF diffusion and assess its impact on various observables.

effective field theories↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Effect of Gravity on the Combustion of Bulk Metals

In recent years, metal combustion studies at the University of Colorado have focused on the effects of gravity (g) on the ignition and burning behavior of bulk metals. The impetus behind this effort is the understanding of the ignition conditions and flammability properties of structural metals found in oxygen (O,sub>2 ) systems for space applications. Since spacecraft are subjected to higher-than-1g loads during launch and reentry and to a zero-gravity environment while in orbit, the study of ignition and combustion of bulk metals at different gravitational accelerations is of great practical concern. From the scientific standpoint, studies conducted under low gravity conditions provide simplified boundary conditions, since buoyancy is removed, and make possible the identification of fundamental ignition and combustion mechanisms. This investigation is intended to provide experimental verification of the influence of natural convection on the burning behavior of metals. In addition, the study offers the first findings of the influence of gravity on ignition of bulk metals and on the combustion mechanism and structure of metal-oxygen, vapor-phase diffusion flames in a buoyancy-free environment. Titanium (Ti) and magnesium (Mg) metals were chosen because of their importance as elements of structural materials and their simple chemical composition-pure metals instead of multicomponent alloys to simplify chemical and spectroscopic analyses. In addition, these elements present the two different combustion modes observed in metals: heterogeneous or surface burning (for Ti) and homogeneous or gas-phase reaction (for Mg). Finally, Mg, Ti, and their oxides exhibit a wide range of thermophysical and chemical properties. Metal surface temperature profiles, critical and ignition temperatures, propagation rates, burning times, and spectroscopic measurements are obtained under normal and reduced gravity. Visual evidence of all phenomena is provided by high-speed photography.

Melvyn C Branch↗
NASA NTRS2005

Chapter 9 - Pre-Flight Tests

Pre-flight testing is critical to the success of any flight test program. Pre-flight tests are performed to measure and evaluate the characteristics of an aircraft in a non-flying environment and to verify that these characteristics are as desired. Since aircraft systems are becoming more and more complex, conducting proper pre-flight testing to help identify system characteristics and deficiencies prior to flight is more important now than ever before. Much flight test time has been lost fixing problems that should have been found and corrected prior to flight. Accidents have occurred because pre-flight tests and verification procedures were not conducted thoroughly enough to identify the aircraft's characteristics properly or to find system discrepancies. Proper pre-flight testing helps ensure that the aircraft is ready to fly and contributes toward an efficient, productive, and safe flight test program. The reader should be aware that this Section is dedicated to the testing that should take place prior to the first flight. There are other "pre-flight" tests that take place prior to each individual flight. These latter tests are not discussed in this Section. The following paragraphs of this Section describe significant tests that are usually accomplished prior to flying a new or highly modified aircraft. Test objectives, descriptions, products, and requirements are provided in the following subsections: 9.1 Wind tunnel tests 9.2 Simulation tests 9.3 Propulsion tests 9.4 Weight and balance tests 9.5 Ground vibration tests 9.6 Structural loads tests 9.7 Gain margin tests 9.8 Verification and calibration tests 9.9 Taxi tests The specific examples given and the test facilities mentioned in this Section will illustrate the approach taken and the techniques used by the US Air Force; however, they are typical of those used by other test organizations.

Paul W Kirsten↗
NASA NTRS2026

Towards an improved understanding of the Antarctic coastal zone and its contribution to future global sea level

Understanding the coastal zone of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, where it interacts with the Southern Ocean and warmer air masses, is crucial for predicting Antarctica's influence on the global climate. This region has multiple tipping mechanisms that could trigger large, rapid, and potentially irreversible changes in the coming centuries. The Antarctic Ice Sheet remains the largest source of uncertainty in future sea-level projections. Insufficient knowledge of bed topography beneath the ice shelves and the coastal ice sheet is not yet well documented, but is a major source of this uncertainty. This review assesses current knowledge of the coastal zone and highlights methods to investigate it, including aerogeophysical surveys, ground- and ship-based measurements, satellite observations, and computer modeling. An ensemble analysis of published bed topography datasets identifies significant data gaps and their regional distribution, framed in the context of current ice-sheet behavior and potential instability. We propose scientific priorities and guidelines for future aerogeophysical surveys, advocating for a comprehensive, coordinated international effort to build a next-generation dataset of Antarctic bed properties. Such an initiative would significantly advance understanding of the role of coastal processes in ice-sheet dynamics, reducing uncertainties in sea-level rise projections and enhancing predictions of future ocean and climate changes.

Kenichi Matsuoka↗
NASA NTRS1985

WINDSAT Free Flyer Using the Advanced TIROS-N Satellite

The results of this study show the feasibility of carrying a wind measuring lidar on an ATN-derivative free flying spacecraft. The overall configuration fits within the Shuttle bay and uses the same techniques for STS Launch as the proposed SAATN spacecraft. The lidar can be made light enough that the total weight of the satellite is well within the capability of the onboard propulsion system for transfers to a Sun synchronous orbit at 833 km attitude. The principal techniques for weight minimization are the use of the Perkin Elmer proprietary HIP process for the telescope, new packaging concepts for the laser and for the optics-laser interface, and the application of current technology to the signal processing hardware. Power minimization is achieved for the lidar primarily by use of a low pulse repetition frequency, i.e., 2pps, and again by the use of current processor technology. The power capability of the spacecraft is enhanced by increasing the ATN array size 25 percent, through the addition of two more solar array panels of the present size, and by limiting the range of Sun angles over which the spacecraft is operated. The same basic concept for the lidar as proposed in the Shuttle Windsat study is recommended here, but there are some changes in details to improve weight and power. No major technology break-throughs are required for the lidar, but some technology experiments are recommended for the laser subsystem to verify isotopic gas lifetime and performance, modulator life and weight, and for space qualification. Spacecraft changes are all natural modifications or growth to accommodate the payload. Overall, the proposed system provides substantial margin for the uncertainties for the future and for potential payload change, and also demonstrates the reasonableness of the Windsat Free Flyer concept.

Herbert M Gurk↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surface science insight note: A linear algebraic approach to elucidate native films on Fe 3 O 4 surface

Standard materials are often used to obtain spectra that can be compared to those from unknown samples. Spectra measured from these known substances are also used as a means of computing sensitivity factors to allow quantification by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) of less well-defined materials. Spectra from known materials also provide line shapes suitable for inclusion in spectral models which, when fitted to spectra, permit the chemical state for a sample to be assessed. Both types of information depend on isolating photoemission signals from the inelastically scattered signal. In this Insight note, technical issues associated with the use of XPS of as received Fe 3 O 4 powder sample surface are discussed. The Insight note is designed to show how linear algebraic techniques applied to data collected from a sample marketed as pure Fe 3 O 4 powder are used to verify that XPS has been performed on chemistry representative of the sample. The methods described in this Insight note can further be utilized in elucidating complex XPS data obtained from thin films formed or evolved during cyclic/non-steady use of complex (electro)catalyst surfaces, especially in the presence of contaminants.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Conformer-Specific Dissociation Dynamics in Dimethyl Methylphosphonate Radical Cation

The dynamics of the dimethyl methylphosphonate (DMMP) radical cation after production by strong field adiabatic ionization have been investigated. Pump-probe experiments using strong field 1300 nm pulses to adiabatically ionize DMMP and a 800 nm non-ionizing probe induce coherent oscillations of the parent ion yield with a period of about 45 fs. The yields of two fragments, PO 2 C 2 H 7 + and PO 2 CH 4 + , oscillate approximately out of phase with the parent ion, but with a slight phase shift relative to each other. We use electronic structure theory and nonadiabatic surface hopping dynamics to understand the underlying dynamics. The results show that while the cation oscillates on the ground state along the P=O bond stretch coordinate, the probe excites population to higher electronic states that can lead to fragments PO 2 C 2 H 7 + and PO 2 CH 4 + . The computational results combined with the experimental observations indicate that the two conformers of DMMP that are populated under experimental conditions exhibit different dynamics after being excited to the higher electronic states of the cation leading to different dissociation products. These results highlight the potential usefulness of these pump-probe measurements as a tool to study conformer-specific dynamics in molecules of biological interest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

End-To-End Decentralized Transmission Line Protection in IBR-Dominated Weak Grids Using Interpretable Data-Driven Methods

Traditional transmission line protection relies on predictable synchronous-based fault signatures, which frequently fail under the non-standard, current-limited fault characteristics of Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs). This study investigates how to achieve secure, communication-free fault isolation in IBR-dominated weak grids without relying on opaque, computationally heavy "black-box" machine learning algorithms. To address this, we propose a novel, standalone, and inherently interpretable data-driven protection framework. Unlike centralized methods requiring multi-terminal communication, this decentralized approach relies solely on local measurements using a hierarchical linear-kernel Support Vector Machine (SVM). The methodology decomposes the protection task into four sequential stages that mimic traditional protection elements: fault detection and fault direction identification, fault type classification, zone classification, and location estimation. This multi-stage architecture allows for specialized feature engineering at each stage, combining high computational efficiency with logic traceability. The framework's end-to-end performance was validated via C-code and PSCAD/EMTDC co-simulation, utilizing a real-world utility network and an OEM black-box IBR model. The proposed relay achieves 97.2% overall accuracy and provides a reliable trip decision within a 2.5-cycle window. The results confirm 100% accuracy in fundamental fault detection, reliable zone selectivity across low to moderate fault resistances, and robust security against non-fault transients, proving its immediate viability for integration into commercial numerical relays.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Salt‐Assisted Vapor–Liquid–Solid Growth of 1D van der Waals Materials

The method of salt-assisted vapor–liquid–solid (VLS) growth is introduced to synthesize 1D nanostructures of trichalcogenide van der Waals (vdW) materials, exemplified by niobium trisulfide (NbS 3 ). The method uses a unique catalyst consisting of an alloy of Au and an alkali metal halide (NaCl) to enable rapid and directional growth. High yields of two types of NbS 3 1D nanostructures, nanowires and nanoribbons, each with sub-ten nanometer diameter, tens of micrometers length, and distinct 1D morphology and growth orientation are demonstrated. Strategies to control the location, size, and morphology of growth, and extend the growth method to synthesize other transition metal trichalcogenides, NbSe 3 and TiS 3 , as nanowires are demonstrated. Finally, the role of the Au–NaCl alloy catalyst in guiding VLS synthesis is described and the growth mechanism based on the relationships measured between structure (growth orientation, morphology, and dimensions) and growth conditions (catalyst volume and growth time) is discussed. These results introduce opportunities to expand the library of emerging 1D vdW materials to make use of their unique properties through controlled growth at nanoscale dimensions.

1D van der Waals material↗
DOE OSTI2023

Host galaxies of ultra-strong Mg ii absorbers at z ∼ 0.7

ABSTRACT We report spectroscopic identification of the host galaxies of 18 ultra-strong Mg ii systems (USMg ii) at 0.6 ≤ z ≤ 0.8. We created the largest sample by merging these with 20 host galaxies from our previous survey within 0.4 ≤ z ≤ 0.6. Using this sample, we confirm that the measured impact parameters ($\rm 6.3\leqslant D[kpc] \leqslant 120$ with a median of 19 kpc) are much larger than expected, and the USMg ii host galaxies do not follow the canonical $\rm {\it W}_{2796}-{\it D}$ anticorrelation. We show that the presence and significance of this anticorrelation may depend on the sample selection. The $\rm {\it W}_{2796}-{\it D}$ anticorrelation seen for the general Mg ii absorbers show a mild evolution at low $\rm W_{2796}$ end over the redshift range 0.4 ≤ z ≤ 1.5 with an increase of the impact parameters. Compared to the host galaxies of normal Mg ii absorbers, USMg ii host galaxies are brighter and more massive for a given impact parameter. While the USMg ii systems preferentially pick star-forming galaxies, they exhibit slightly lower ongoing star-forming rates compared to main sequence galaxies with the same stellar mass, suggesting a transition from star-forming to quiescent states. For a limiting magnitude of mr < 23.6, at least 29 per cent of the USMg ii host galaxies are isolated, and the width of the Mg ii absorption in these cases may originate from gas flows (infall/outflow) in isolated haloes of massive star forming but not starbursting galaxies. We associate more than one galaxy with the absorber in $\ge 21~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ cases, where interactions may cause wide velocity spread.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
NASA NTRS1977

Magnetic and Dielectric Properties of Lunar Samples

The dielectric properties of lunar soil and rock samples show a systematic character when careful precautions are taken to ensure there is no moisture present during measurement. The dielectric constant (K) above 10 5 Hz is directly dependent on density according to the formula K = (1.93 ± 0.17) p where p is the density in g/cc. The dielectric loss tangent is only slightly dependent on density and has values less than 0.005 for typical soils and 0.005-0.03 for typical rocks. In addition to a density dependence, the loss tangent appears to be directly related to the metallic ilmenite content. These results are in good agreement with the results of the Surface Electrical Properties Experiment carried on Apollo 17. It showed a surface layer of dielectric constant 3.8 and a loss tangent of 0.008. This is presumed to be a layer of compact soil about 7 m thick, overlying a medium with a dielectric constant of roughly 7.5 and a loss tangent interpreted to be 0.035, The medium is presumed to be bedrock. These results are compatible with seismic results. The magnetic properties of lunar samples can be used to study the distribution of metallic and ferrous iron which shows systematic variations from soil-type to soil-type and a general tendency to increasing Fe°/Fe** distribution in the more highly rewelded breccias. The other magnetic characteristics can also be used to determine the distribution of grain sizes. There are a number of ways of interpreting the origin of the stable remanent magnetization in lunar samples, but several lines of evidence suggest that it is of thermal origin and was acquired at a time when the igneous rocks and breccias cooled from above 800°C in the presence of an ancient field.

D W Strangway↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cation valency in water-in-salt electrolytes alters the short- and long-range structure of the electrical double layer

Highly concentrated aqueous electrolytes (termed water-in-salt electrolytes, WiSEs) at solid-liquid interfaces are ubiquitous in myriad applications including biological signaling, electrosynthesis, and energy storage. This interface, known as the electrical double layer (EDL), has a different structure in WiSEs than in dilute electrolytes. Here, we investigate how divalent salts [zinc bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide, Zn(TFSI) 2 ], as well as mixtures of mono- and divalent salts [lithium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide (LiTFSI) mixed with Zn(TFSI) 2 ], affect the short- and long-range structure of the EDL under confinement using a multimodal combination of scattering, spectroscopy, and surface forces measurements. Raman spectroscopy of bulk electrolytes suggests that the cation is closely associated with the anion regardless of valency. Wide-angle X-ray scattering reveals that all bulk electrolytes form ion clusters; however, the clusters are suppressed with increasing concentration of the divalent ion. To probe the EDL under confinement, we use a Surface Forces Apparatus and demonstrate that the thickness of the adsorbed layer of ions at the interface grows with increasing divalent ion concentration. Multiple interfacial layers form following this adlayer; their thicknesses appear dependent on anion size, rather than cation. Importantly, all electrolytes exhibit very long electrostatic decay lengths that are insensitive to valency. It is likely that in the WiSE regime, electrostatic screening is mediated by the formation of ion clusters rather than individual well-solvated ions. This work contributes to understanding the structure and charge-neutralization mechanism in this class of electrolytes and the interfacial behavior of mixed-electrolyte systems encountered in electrochemistry and biology.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2021

DEPRECATED AI-Batt-OS (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models - Open Source) [SWR 21-17]

DEPRECATED. This repository was archived by the owner on Jun 30, 2026. It is now read-only. Open source implementation of some of the methods utilized by AI-Batt, a battery lifetime modeling and analysis toolkit provided by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). This software demonstrates the use of bi-level optimization and symbolic regression techniques to semi-autonomously identify algebraic models predicting the capacity fade of lithium-ion batteries during calendar aging. Modeling the degradation of batteries is a complex task, due to the difficulty in separating the time-dependent and time-independent factors impacting cell level degradation, across multiple data series with different numbers of measurements and/or data quality. Bi-level optimization enables model parameters to be optimized to either the entire data set or to individual data series, allowing statistical disambiguation of global behaviors (data series independent) and local behaviors (data series dependent). Symbolic regression is used to automatically search for optimal low-dimesional models predicting the variation of locally optimized parameters versus time-independent experimental variables from millions of possible models, resulting in a more accurate and repeatable model identification process than is possible by a manual search. The provided tools also implement cross-validation and bootstrap resampling schemes, empowering statistical model comparison/selection and quantification of model uncertainties. An example script replicates the results from the manuscript "Challenging Practices of Algebraic Battery Life Models through Statistical Validation and Model Identification via Machine-Learning", submitted to ECS. All code is written in MATLAB. Requires the Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox. Contact Dr. Paul Gasper at Paul.Gasper@nlr.gov for any questions.

Gasper, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modern insights into the mechanisms of neptunium oxalate decomposition

Neptunium oxalate (Np(C 2 O 4 ) 2 ·6H 2 O) is a historically relevant solid phase used in nuclear processing as a precursor for neptunium dioxide (NpO 2 ). Although Np oxalate has been synthesized and used for NpO 2 production for decades, the thermal decomposition mechanism of this phase remains poorly understood and has not been evaluated in over 30 years. Conflicting reports in historical literature suggest either a direct conversion from anhydrous oxalate to NpO 2 or a decomposition that includes the formation of Np carbonate or oxidized Np intermediate phases. In this work, we reexamine the decomposition pathway of Np(C 2 O 4 ) 2 ·6H 2 O using thermal analysis coupled with evolved gas analysis and temperature-dependent Raman spectroscopy to elucidate decomposition mechanisms and intermediate phases using modern analytical techniques. Thermal analysis revealed a three-stage decomposition process, including dehydration below 200 °C, oxalate breakdown between 170 and 370 °C, and NpO 2 formation by 500 °C. However, an unidentified plateau in the thermal data was observed during measurements. Raman spectroscopy confirmed the stages of decomposition, and in the analysis of potential intermediate phases, no carbonate phases or Np 2 O 5 were identified. Raman data suggest that residual oxalate or nonstoichiometric oxide are present during decomposition before pure NpO 2 is formed. These findings clarify aspects of the Np oxalate decomposition mechanism and address longstanding discrepancies in the literature, with a specific focus on Np-specific materials chemistry.

Lawson, Kathryn M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗
NASA NTRS2026

Remote Sensing-Driven Hydrodynamic Modeling in Data-Scarce Regions: Integrating ICESat-2, Sentinel-2, SWOT and Re-analysis Models for Coastal Monitoring

Hydrodynamic models in coastal and estuarine systems are typically constrained by sparse bathymetry, boundary, and validation data, especially in regions where field campaigns are costly or impractical. Here we develop and test a fully satellite-driven framework for hydrodynamic modeling in South Africa’s Langebaan Lagoon without using any local in situ measurements. Bathymetry is derived by training multispectral Sentinel-2 reflectance against ICESat-2 ATL24 photon-derived depths using an XGBoost model optimized with Bayesian search. The final satellite-derived bathymetry reproduces independent ATL24 points with RMSE = 0.45 m and R 2 = 0.97. This bathymetry was used in a depth-averaged Delft3D Flexible Mesh model driven at the open boundary by TPXO tidal harmonics and by ERA5 winds. We validate modeled water surface elevation against 16 SWOT low-rate (250 m, unsmoothed) passes in 2023. SWOT–model comparisons yield an overall RMSE of 0.11 m and R 2 = 0.61, with typical point differences <0.10 m (∼7% of the 1.5 m tidal range), and showed consistent spatial gradients in water level from the offshore boundary, through Saldanha Bay, and into the lagoon. At the offshore boundary, TPXO and SWOT sea surface heights agree closely (R 2 = 0.86). A simple phase adjustment of ∼26,min between TPXO and SWOT lowers the RMSE from 0.18,m to 0.11,m, showing that phase offset accounts for some of the discrepancy, with additional errors likely linked to non-tidal signals. Our results demonstrate that combining passive optical, photon-counting LiDAR, radar interferometry, and global tidal/atmospheric models enables robust, transferrable hydrodynamic modeling in data-scarce coastal systems, offering a cost-effective pathway for monitoring.

ICESat-2↗