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Methodology and Results of the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Human Space Flight (HSF) Accessible Targets Study (NHATS)

Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) have been identified by the current administration as potential destinations for human explorers during the mid-2020s. While the close proximity of these objects' orbits to Earth's orbit creates a risk of highly damaging or catastrophic impacts, it also makes some of these objects particularly accessible to spacecraft departing Earth, and this presents unique opportunities for solar system science and humanity's first ventures beyond cislunar space. Planning such ambitious missions first requires the selection of potentially accessible targets from the growing population of nearly 7,800 NEAs. To accomplish this, NASA is conducting the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Human Space Flight (HSF) Accessible Targets Study (NHATS). Phase I of the NHATS was executed during September of 2010, and Phase II was completed by early March of 2011. The study is ongoing because previously undetected NEAs are being discovered constantly, which has motivated an effort to automate the analysis algorithms in order to provide continuous monitoring of NEA accessibility. The NHATS analysis process consists of a trajectory filter and a minimum maximum estimated size criterion. The trajectory filter employs the method of embedded trajectory grids to compute all possible ballistic round-trip mission trajectories to every NEA in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Small-Body Database (SBDB) and stores all solutions that satisfy the trajectory filter criteria. An NEA must offer at least one qualifying trajectory solution to pass the trajectory filter. The Phase II NHATS filter criteria were purposely chosen to be highly inclusive, requiring Earth departure date between January 1st, 2015 and December 31st, 2040, total round-trip flight time <= 450 days, stay time at the NEA >= 8 days, Earth departure C(sub 3) energy <= 60 km(exp 2)/s(exp 2), total mission delta-v <= 12 km/s (including an Earth departure maneuver from a 400 km altitude circular parking orbit), and a maximum atmospheric re-entry speed of 12 km/s. After determining which NEAs offer at least one trajectory solution meeting the criteria, the estimated size constraint is then imposed whereby those NEAs may only be considered NHATS- qualifying NEAs if their maximum estimated size is >= 30 m. This corresponds to an absolute magnitude H <= 26.5 with an assumed albedo p = 0:05. The following is a brief high-level summary of the Phase II study results. Of the 7,665 NEAs in the SBDB as of February 3rd, 2011, 765 NEAs passed the trajectory filter and yielded a total of 79,157,604 trajectory solutions. The trajectory solutions for each NEA are post-processed into Pork Chop Contour (PCC) plots which show total mission delta-v as a function of Earth departure date and total mission duration. Although the PCC plots necessarily compress a very multi-dimensional design space into a two-dimensional plot, they permit rapid assessment of the breadth and quality of an NEA's available Earth departure season and clearly indicate the regions of the trajectory design space which warrant further analysis and optimization. The PCC plot for the NEA with the greatest number of NHATS-qualifying trajectory solutions, 2000 SG-344, is shown. Of the 765 NEAs which passed the Phase II trajectory filter, a total of 590 NEAs also satisfied the further constraint of maximum estimated size >= 30 m. The distributions of osculating heliocentric orbital semi-major axis (a), eccentricity (e), and inclination (i), for those 590 NEAs are shown. Note that the semi-latus rectum used is equal to alpha (1-e(exp 2)). To further our understanding of round-trip trajectory accessibility dynamics, it is instructive to examine the distribution of the NHATS-Qualifying NEAs according to orbit classification. NEAs are grouped into four orbit families: Atiras (aphelion < 0.983 AU), Atens (aphelion > 0.983 AU, alpha < 1.0 AU), Apollos (perihelion < 1.017 AU, alpha > 1.0 AU), and Amors (1.017 < perihelion < 1.3 AU). Of the 765 NEAhich satisfied the NHATS trajectory criteria, none are Atiras, 193 are Atens (31% of known Atens), 456 are Apollos (11% of known Apollos), and 116 are Amors (4% of known Amors). While Apollos comprise 60% of the NEAs which pass the NHATS trajectory filter and Atens comprise only 25%, the percentages according to orbit family are perhaps more relevant. Note that only 11% of known Apollos passed the trajectory filter while 31% of known Atens passed. These simple statistics alone strongly suggest that Aten orbits possess features which tend to enhance their round-trip trajectory accessibility as compared to Apollos or Amors. This is significant because Atens' orbits cause them to spend considerable time in Earth's daytime sky, making them difficult to discover and track using ground-based observing assets. In this paper we will detail the NHATS analysis algorithms, present and analyze all NHATS results to date, and discuss aspects of HSF mission architecture design for future NEA missions.

Barbee, Brent↗

Real time time-dependent density functional theory using higher order finite-element methods

We present a computationally efficient approach to solve the time-dependent Kohn-Sham equations in real time using higher order finite-element spatial discretization, applicable to both pseudopotential and all-electron calculations. To this end, we develop an a priori mesh adaption technique, based on the semidiscrete (discrete in space but continuous in time) error estimate on the time-dependent Kohn-Sham orbitals, to construct an efficient finite-element discretization. Subsequently, we obtain the full-discrete error estimate to guide our choice of the time step. We employ spectral finite elements along with special reduced order quadrature to render the overlap matrix diagonal, thereby simplifying the inversion of the overlap matrix that features in the evaluation of the discrete time-evolution operator. We use the second-order Magnus operator as the time-evolution operator, wherein the action of the discrete Magnus operator, expressed as exponential of a matrix, on the Kohn-Sham orbitals is obtained efficiently through an adaptive Lanczos iteration. We observe close to optimal rates of convergence of the dipole moment with respect to spatial and temporal discretization, for both pseudopotential and all-electron calculations. We demonstrate a staggering 100-fold reduction in the computational time afforded by higher order finite elements over linear finite elements, for both pseudopotential and all-electron calculations. Further, for similar level of accuracy, we obtain significant computational savings by our approach as compared to state-of-the-art finite-difference methods. Here, we also demonstrate the competence of higher order finite elements for all-electron benchmark systems. Lastly, we observe good parallel scalability of the proposed method on many hundreds of processors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Side by Side Comparison of Filter-Based PM(sub 2.5) Measurements at a Suburban Site: A Closure Study

Reliable determination of the effects of air quality on public health and the environment requires accurate measurement of PM(sub 2.5) mass and the individual chemical components of fine aerosols. This study seeks to evaluate PM(sub 2.5) measurements that are part of a newly established national network by comparing them with a more conventional sampling system. Experiments were carried out during 2002 at a suburban site in Maryland, United States, where two samplers from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Speciation Trends Network: Met One Speciation Air Sampling System STNS and Thermo Scientific Reference Ambient Air Sampler STNR, two Desert Research Institute Sequential Filter Samplers DRIF, and a continuous TEOM monitor (Thermo Scientific Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance) were sampling air in parallel. These monitors differ not only in sampling configuration but also in protocol-specific sample analysis procedures. Measurements of PM(sub 2.5) mass and major contributing species were well correlated among the different methods with r-values > 0.8. Despite the good correlations, daily concentrations of PM(sub 2.5) mass and major contributing species were significantly different at the 95% confidence level from 5 to 100% of the time. Larger values of PM(sub 2.5) mass and individual species were generally reported from STNR and STNS. The January STNR average PM(sub 2.5) mass (8.8 (micro)g/per cubic meter) was 1.5 (micro)g/per cubic meter larger than the DRIF average mass. The July STNS average PM(sub 2.5) mass (27.8 (micro)g/per cubic meter) was 3.8 (micro)g/per cubic meter larger than the DRIF average mass. These differences can only be partially accounted for by known random errors. Variations in flow control, face velocity, and sampling artifacts likely influence the measurement of PM(sub 2.5) speciation and mass closure. Simple statistical tests indicate that the current uncertainty estimates used in the STN network may underestimate the actual uncertainty.

Haines, Jennifer C.↗

Linear FMCW Laser Radar for Precision Range and Vector Velocity Measurements

An all fiber linear frequency modulated continuous wave (FMCW) coherent laser radar system is under development with a goal to aide NASA s new Space Exploration initiative for manned and robotic missions to the Moon and Mars. By employing a combination of optical heterodyne and linear frequency modulation techniques and utilizing state-of-the-art fiber optic technologies, highly efficient, compact and reliable laser radar suitable for operation in a space environment is being developed. Linear FMCW lidar has the capability of high-resolution range measurements, and when configured into a multi-channel receiver system it has the capability of obtaining high precision horizontal and vertical velocity measurements. Precision range and vector velocity data are beneficial to navigating planetary landing pods to the preselected site and achieving autonomous, safe soft-landing. The all-fiber coherent laser radar has several important advantages over more conventional pulsed laser altimeters or range finders. One of the advantages of the coherent laser radar is its ability to measure directly the platform velocity by extracting the Doppler shift generated from the motion, as opposed to time of flight range finders where terrain features such as hills, cliffs, or slopes add error to the velocity measurement. Doppler measurements are about two orders of magnitude more accurate than the velocity estimates obtained by pulsed laser altimeters. In addition, most of the components of the device are efficient and reliable commercial off-the-shelf fiber optic telecommunication components. This paper discusses the design and performance of a second-generation brassboard system under development at NASA Langley Research Center as part of the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance (ALHAT) project.

Pierrottet, Diego↗

Product Defect Detection System: SYSM- 5620 Final Project

Retail sales is a growing market estimated to up to seven percent year over year. With this growing market there is also a trend in growing rate of retail returns, estimated just last year at $\$$850 billion. Retail stores must ensure that products available for purchase remain safe, undamaged, and acceptable to customers throughout their time in the store. This job exists regardless of the specific solution used because stores are always responsible for preventing damaged or defective products from reaching customers and when they fail to this is categorized under operation inefficiencies which accounts for an estimated $\$$12 billion in returns. When defective items remain on the sales floor, stores may experience increased returns, reduced customer satisfaction, loss of customer trust, and potential safety concerns depending on the product type. As a result, the core job to be done is to identify defective products quickly, remove them from the sales floor before they are purchased, and preserve useful information about the defect so that the store can improve its handling, stocking, and supplier coordination over time. The need for a more reliable process is especially important in high volume retail environments where employees manage large numbers of products across many aisles, shelves, and storage areas. In these settings, manual inspection alone can be inconsistent and difficult to sustain at the individual item level. At the same time, broader retail trends continue to emphasize operational efficiency, product visibility, and improved customer experience, creating an opportunity for more automated and data driven defect detection methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Adaptation, plant evolution, and the fossil record

The importance of adaptation in determining patterns of evolution has become an important focus of debate in evolutionary biology. As it pertains to paleobotany, the issue is whether or not adaptive evolution mediated by natural selection is sufficient to explain the stratigraphic distributions of taxa and character states observed in the plant fossil record. One means of addressing this question is the functional evaluation of stratigraphic series of plant organs set in the context of paleoenvironmental change and temporal patterns of floral composition within environments. For certain organ systems, quantitative estimates of biophysical performance can be made on the basis of structures preserved in the fossil record. Performance estimates for plants separated in time or space can be compared directly. Implicit in different hypotheses of the forces that shape the evolutionary record (e.g. adaptation, mass extinction, rapid environmental change, chance) are predictions about stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental trends in the efficacy of functional performance. Existing data suggest that following the evolution of a significant structural innovation, adaptation for improved functional performance can be a major determinant of evolutionary changes in plants; however, there are structural and development limits to functional improvement, and once these are reached, the structure in question may no longer figure strongly in selection until and unless a new innovation evolves. The Silurian-Devonian paleobotanical record is consistent with the hypothesis that the succession of lowland floodplain dominants preserved in the fossil record of this interval was determined principally by the repeated evolution of new taxa that rose to ecological importance because of competitive advantages conferred by improved biophysical performance. This does not seem to be equally true for Carboniferous-Jurassic dominants of swamp and lowland floodplain environments. In these cases, environmental disruption appears to have been a major factor in shaping the fossil record. This does not mean that continuing adaptation was not important during this interval, but it may indicate that adaptive evolution was strongest in environments other than those best represented in the paleobotanical record.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Multigrid Reduction in Time for Chaotic Dynamical Systems

As CPU clock speeds have stagnated and high performance computers continue to have ever higher core counts, increased parallelism is needed to take advantage of these new architectures. Traditional serial time-marching schemes can be a significant bottleneck, as many types of simulations require large numbers of time-steps which must be computed sequentially. Parallel-in-time schemes, such as the Multigrid Reduction in Time (MGRIT) method, remedy this by parallelizing across time-steps and have shown promising results for parabolic problems. However, chaotic problems have proved more difficult, since chaotic initial value problems (IVPs) are inherently ill-conditioned. MGRIT relies on a hierarchy of successively coarser time-grids to iteratively correct the solution on the finest time-grid, but due to the nature of chaotic systems, small inaccuracies on the coarser levels can be greatly magnified and lead to poor coarse-grid corrections. Here we introduce a modified MGRIT algorithm based on an existing quadratically converging nonlinear extension to the multigrid Full Approximation Scheme (FAS), as well as a novel time-coarsening scheme. Together, these approaches better capture long-term chaotic behavior on coarse-grids and greatly improve convergence of MGRIT for chaotic IVPs. Further, we introduce a novel low-memory variant of the algorithm for solving chaotic PDEs with MGRIT which not only solves the IVP, but also provides estimates for the unstable Lyapunov vectors of the system. Finally, we provide supporting numerical results for the Lorenz system and demonstrate parallel speedup for the chaotic Kuramoto–Sivashinsky PDE over a significantly longer time-domain than in previous works.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integration of Weather Data into Airspace and Traffic Operations Simulation (ATOS) for Trajectory- Based Operations Research

Explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with the National Airspace System (NAS) structure is needed to improve the development and execution of operationally effective weather impact mitigation plans and has become increasingly important due to NAS congestion and associated increases in delay. This article considers several contemporary weather-air traffic management (ATM) integration applications: the use of probabilistic forecasts of visibility at San Francisco, the Route Availability Planning Tool to facilitate departures from the New York airports during thunderstorms, the estimation of en route capacity in convective weather, and the application of mixed-integer optimization techniques to air traffic management when the en route and terminal capacities are varying with time because of convective weather impacts. Our operational experience at San Francisco and New York coupled with very promising initial results of traffic flow optimizations suggests that weather-ATM integrated systems warrant significant research and development investment. However, they will need to be refined through rapid prototyping at facilities with supportive operational users We have discussed key elements of an emerging aviation weather research area: the explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with NAS structure to improve the effectiveness and timeliness of weather impact mitigation plans. Our insights are based on operational experiences with Lincoln Laboratory-developed integrated weather sensing and processing systems, and derivative early prototypes of explicit ATM decision support tools such as the RAPT in New York City. The technical components of this effort involve improving meteorological forecast skill, tailoring the forecast outputs to the problem of estimating airspace impacts, developing models to quantify airspace impacts, and prototyping automated tools that assist in the development of objective broad-area ATM strategies, given probabilistic weather forecasts. Lincoln Laboratory studies and prototype demonstrations in this area are helping to define the weather-assimilated decision-making system that is envisioned as a key capability for the multi-agency Next Generation Air Transportation System [1]. The Laboratory's work in this area has involved continuing, operations-based evolution of both weather forecasts and models for weather impacts on the NAS. Our experience has been that the development of usable ATM technologies that address weather impacts must proceed via rapid prototyping at facilities whose users are highly motivated to participate in system evolution.

Peters, Mark↗

Past and future ocean warming

Changes in ocean heat content (OHC) provide a measure of ocean warming, with impacts on the Earth system. This Review synthesizes estimates of past and future OHC changes using observations and models. The top 2,000 m of the global ocean has significantly warmed since the 1950s, gaining 351 ± 59.8 ZJ (1 ZJ = 10 21 J) from 1958 to 2019. The rate of warming increased from <5 to ~10 ZJ yr –1 from the 1960s to the 2010s. Observed area-averaged warming is largest in the Atlantic Ocean and southern oceans at 1.42 ± 0.09 and 1.40 ± 0.09 × 109 J m –2 , respectively, for the upper 2,000 m over 1958–2019. These observed patterns of heat gains are dominated by heat redistribution. Observationally constrained projections suggest that historic ocean warming is irreversible this century, with net warming dependent on the emission scenario. By 2100, projected warming in the top 2,000 m is 2–6 times that observed so far, ranging from 1,030 [839–1,228] ZJ for a low-emission scenario to 1,874 [1,637–2,109] ZJ for a high-emission scenario. The Pacific is projected to be the largest heat reservoir owing to its size, but area-averaged warming remains strongest in the Atlantic and southern oceans. Ocean warming has extensive impacts that pose risks to marine ecosystems and society. Here, the projected changes necessitate a continuation and improvement of observations and models, along with better uncertainty estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Palinspastic reconstruction of southeastern California and southwestern Arizona for the middle Miocene

A paleogeographic reconstruction of southeastern California and southwestern Arizona at 10 Ma was made based on available geologic and geophysical data. Clockwise rotation of 39 deg was reconstructed in the eastern Transverse Ranges, consistent with paleomagnetic data from late Miocene volcanic rocks, and with slip estimates for left-lateral faults within the eastern Transverse Ranges and NW-trending right lateral faults in the Mojave Desert. This domain of rotated rocks is bounded by the Pinto Mountain fault on the north. In the absence of evidence for rotation of the San Bernardino Mountains or for significant right slip faults within the San Bernardino Mountains, the model requires that the late Miocene Pinto Mountain fault become a thrust fault gaining displacement to the west. The Squaw Peak thrust system of Meisling and Weldon may be a western continuation of this fault system. The Sheep Hole fault bounds the rotating domain on the east. East of this fault an array of NW-trending right slip faults and south-trending extensional transfer zones has produced a basin and range physiography while accumulating up to 14 km of right slip. This maximum is significantly less than the 37.5 km of right slip required in this region by a recent reconstruction of the central Mojave Desert. Geologic relations along the southern boundary of the rotating domain are poorly known, but this boundary is interpreted to involve a series of curved strike slip faults and non-coaxial extension, bounded on the southeast by the Mammoth Wash and related faults in the eastern Chocolate Mountains. Available constraints on timing suggest that Quaternary movement on the Pinto Mountain and nearby faults is unrelated to the rotation of the eastern Transverse Ranges, and was preceded by a hiatus during part of Pliocene time which followed the deformation producing the rotation. The reconstructed Clemens Well fault in the Orocopia Mountains, proposed as a major early Miocene strand of the San Andreas fault, projects eastward towards Arizona, where early Miocene rocks and structures are continuous across its trace. The model predicts a 14 deg clockwise rotation and 55 km extension along the present trace of the San Andreas fault during late Miocene and early Pliocene time. Palinspastic reconstructions of the San Andreas system based on this proposed reconstruction may be significantly modified from current models.

Richard, Stephen M.↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

Continuous snow depth and temperature measurements from dense network of above-ground distributed temperature profiling systems from 2021-09-23 to 2024-08-23, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

The dataset contains temperature measurements from distributed temperature profiling (DTP) systems (Dafflon et al., 2022; Wielandt et al., 2022; Wang et al., 2024a; Fiolleau et al., 2024) deployed vertically above the ground surface at a large number of locations from 2021 to 2024. The research is designed to improve understanding of the local heterogeneity in snow depth and snow thermal insulation dynamics, as well as their interactions in a discontinuous permafrost region (Wang et al., 2025). The DTP systems were deployed at 96 locations in a watershed along the Nome-Teller road at mile marker 27 (T27) and at 54 locations on a hillslope along the Kougarok road at mile marker 64 (K64) in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The probe location information is stored in Probe_locations_T27.csv and Probe_locations_K64.csv. Temperature measurements were recorded at 15-minute intervals using high-precision digital sensors (accuracy: ±0.1°C, resolution: 0.0078°C). The temperature probes, either 1.4 m or 1.6 m long, contain sensors spaced every 5 cm or 10 cm along their length. The temperature data are stored in compressed files following the format: DTP_snow_air_temperature_(site)_(start)_(end).zip, where site is either T27 or K64, and start and end represent the time series period. Within each ZIP file, individual CSV files are named by probe ID and contain temperature records at different heights above the ground surface.This dataset also includes derived snow depth time series over three snow seasons, estimated from temperature measurements. Snow depth was estimated by identifying the consecutive sensor pair that exhibited the largest drop in high-frequency temperature fluctuations (detailed in the methods). These data are stored in: Snow_depths_flags_(site)_(start)_(end).csv, which includes snow depth time series and corresponding quality flags (defined in the methods) from different probes. Additionally, the dataset includes derived metrics and supporting measurements at selected locations over two snow seasons, contributing to the manuscript of Wang et al., 2025. These locations were chosen based on the availability of high-quality snow depth time series during both seasons. The additional data include: (1) Air temperature proxies measured from the top sensors on the pole when they were not buried by snow, stored in Air_temperature_proxies_(site)_(start)_(end).csv (2) Ground interface temperature, recorded at 3 cm above the ground, stored in Ground_interface_temperature_(site)_(start)_(end).csv (3) Site characteristics, including vegetation height, elevation, and the topographic position index (TPI) within a 50 m radius, stored in Selected_probe_locations_gps_vegheight_tpi_elevation_(site).csv. These metrics were derived from 1 m resolution summer LiDAR-based digital elevation models and digital surface models from Singhania et al., 2023, DOI:10.5440/1832016. Metadata files include data descriptions (_dd.csv) for tabular data. All included files are listed and described in xxxx_flmd.csv.This dataset is an updated version of a previous archive (Wang et al., 2024b, DOI: 10.15485/2475020), incorporating multiple seasons and improved snow depth estimation. Please note that due to large amount of information present in this dataset, many specificities associated with the acquisition of snow temperature, air temperature proxy and estimation of snow depth, and the future archiving of additional datasets on the soil temperature, thaw depth and soil characteristics at these locations, the author would welcome being contacted by people planning to use this dataset.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Precision Lower Stratospheric Temperature Monitoring with the MSU: Technique, Validation, and Results, 1979-1991

Microwave Sounding Unit channel 4 data from the TIROS-N (Television and Infrared Operational Satellite)-N series of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) satellites are intercalibrated to provide a continuous global record of deep-layer averaged lower stratospheric temperatures during 1979-1991. A 13-year record of temperature anomalies is time averaged into pentads and months on a 2.5 deg. grid. The monthly gridpoint anomalies are validated with ten years of radiosonde data during 1979-88. The calibration stability of each satellite's measurements is evaluated during satellite overlap periods, the longest of which reveal no measurable instrumental drift at the level of 0.01 C yr (exp -1). Intercomparisons between NOAA-6 and NOAA- 7 anomalies indicate monthly gridpoint precision of 0.05 C in the tropics to around 0.10 C in the extratropics, and signal-to-noise ratios precision and stability statistics are much better than have been previously reported by other investigators for MSU channel 4. Pentad precision is about 0.10 C in the tropics to around 0.25 C at high latitudes and signal-to- noise ratios generally over 250 in the tropics and high latitudes, but 100-200 in the middle latitudes. Radiosonde comparisons to the monthly gridpoint anomalies have correlations ranging from 0.90 in the tropics (where the interannual variability is smallest) to as high as 0.99 at high-latitude stations. The corresponding standard error of estimate is generally around 0.3 C. A significant difference in decadal trends is found between the satellite and radiosonde systems, with a step change of 0.21 C (sondes cooler) compared to the satellite measurements. Investigations of the possible sources of the discrepancy lead us to suspect that the gradual transition from on-site calibration of sondes with thermometers to factory calibration of sondes around 1982 might have caused a change in the calibration, although this conclusion must be viewed as tentative. The largest globally averaged temperature variations during 1979-91 occur after the El Chichon (1982) and Pinatubo (1991) volcanic eruptions. These warm events are superimposed upon a net downward trend in temperatures during the period. This cooling trend has more of a step function than linear character, with the step occurring during the El Chichon warm event. It is strongest in polar regions and the Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes. These characteristics are qualitatively consistent with radiative adjustments expected to occur with observed ozone depletions.

Spencer, Roy W.↗

Integration of Nuclear Material Accounting Data and Process Monitoring Data for Improvement on Detection Probability in Safeguarding Electrochemical Processing Facilities (Final Technical Report)

The KAERI advanced spent fuel conditioning process (ACP) process is a critical component of the US- South Korean nuclear cooperation and the following “123 Agreement.” Its development has received considerable attention in both countries. The ACP is an electrochemical processing (pyroprocessing) that recycles over 96% of the used nuclear fuel (UNF). It is also intrinsically proliferation-resistant in theory. In normal operation, the U/TRU product is very hot radiologically. In addition, the Cm provides a high level of spontaneous neutrons, making the product unsuitable for weapon use. However, as pointed in some study, “the need for safeguards to protect against the diversion and misuse of separated plutonium applies essentially equally to all grades of plutonium.” As pointed by many studies, the well-established traditional Nuclear Material Accounting (NMA) approach cannot be directly applied to electrochemical processing because of the lack of an input accountability tank, the non-continuous material flow, and the unsatisfactory level of confidence in sampling methods. Therefore, nuclear safeguards remain a grand challenge in the developing of commercial electrochemical separations facilities, especially around the heart of such facilities, the electrorefiner (ER) systems. In contrast to NMA data, process monitoring (PM) data is normally an indirect measurement of the SNM and is acquired much more frequently. In a broad sense, PM includes monitoring by various types of equipment, e.g. radiation detectors, cameras, voltage, current sensors. Because it is already being collected by the operator, the additional cost to safeguards is low. It has long been believed that PM data can supplement NMA data and help improve safeguards, although the benefits are hard to quantify. The U.S. DOE’s Material Protection, Accounting, and Control Technology (MPACT) campaign has made substantial investments into innovative PM sensor technology and predictive model development for real- or near real-time measurement and prediction of molten salt density and level, salt composition and actinide concentration especially Pu, the cell voltage, and the cell current to supplement traditional NMA. For aqueous-based reprocessing facilities, it is reported that PM, integrated with traditional NMA, have a high detection probability for specific diversions. For electrochemical reprocessing, preliminary studies have shown that PM data can support traditional NMA in various ways by providing a basis to estimate some of the in-processing nuclear material inventories. Despite early success, further studies on fusion of PM data and NMA data are still needed, which is the goal of this proposed work.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Investigating Low-Altitude Constellations of Ad-Hoc Lunar PNT System for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

In this study, we examine a low-altitude Lunar Position, Navigation, and Timing (LPNT) constellations and the localization performance of Centralized Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF) and Decentralized Extended Kalman Filter (DEKF) algorithms. The primary investigation involves a 100-node swarm operating at a 100 km altitude, in contrast to previous studies that examined a 21-node asset in a frozen-orbit at 5,500 km. The autonomous operation of large-scale swarm is based on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve pseudoranges and relative velocities among swarm nodes. We perform a numerical assessment of the two filtering approaches, utilizing ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets as well as ‘two ISL’ measurements where each spacecraft is restricted to only two antennas. This research includes an analysis of CEKF under 2-ISL constraints and evaluates the performance of DEKF in a 100-node swarm, which has not been explored in previous studies. In addition, we examine the impact of increasing the sampling frequency for DEKF, showing that the update cycle can be shortened from a 10-minute interval. A novel approach for ‘2-ISL limited’ DEKF will also be introduced, using a matching formulation that exhaustively enumerates all potential matches. This study provides valuable insights into large-scale distributed swarm operations, considering various filter configurations, sampling frequencies, matching strategies, and scalability of CEKF and DEKF for low-altitude LPNT applications. The Lunar PNT technology plays a key role in providing reliable and robust navigation services on the Moon's surface and the South pole, where the primary Lunar missions are planned. To support upcoming Lunar missions, including small satellites from NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, the Lunar PNT system must be adaptable to smaller platforms like CubeSats. Driven by the growing involvement of public and private exploration partnerships, the traditional low Earth orbit missions are shifting to beyond geosynchronous orbit [1]. These upcoming missions aim to foster a sustainable and innovative exploration program, in collaboration with commercial and international partners, to facilitate human expansion throughout the solar system and return new knowledge and opportunities to Earth [2]. As part of this trend, there are increasing efforts to utilize science missions in Lunar orbit to develop a non-dedicated and ad-hoc PNT network system. Two traditional approaches, the Deep Space Network (DSN) and the weak signal Global Positioning System (GPS), are established deep-space navigation technologies for missions beyond the geosynchronous orbit. Beginning in 1958, the DSN was developed to communicate with the Explorer 1 spacecraft based on the use of radiometric tracking in spacecraft navigation [3]. The DSN is capable of providing nearly unfettered coverage to spacecraft beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), however, increased space mission volume has created concerns about future expectations of DSN usage for spacecraft navigation [4]. For cislunar mission applications, the position accuracy using DSN achieves 100 m (3σ) with at least three geometrically diverse ground stations when using radiometric tracking alone [5]. The DSN's dependence on Earth-based ground stations restricts its operational capabilities to periods of Earth visibility. This limitation, coupled with its poor localization performance, renders the DSN unsuitable for future lunar missions that demand continuous tracking and precise positioning. To satisfy the increasing requirements of DSN in Lunar applications, spacecrafts are also required to improve their onboard antenna power and efficiency of the transmission. However, there is an important aggregate cost trade between adding capabilities to every spacecraft and adding to a capacity on the ground that serves multiple spacecraft [6]. A weak GPS system can provide PNT service while the user spacecraft is bound to the Moon, leveraging a single, steerable high gain antenna with the relatively narrow beam which includes all the sources in its field of view [7]. However, the higher the altitude the receiver is above the GPS constellations, the poorer and the weaker are the relative geometry and the received signal powers, respectively, leading to a significant navigation accuracy reduction [8]. The transmitted power becomes weaker with increasing distance from the Earth as well as signals tracked from one of the side lobes of the GPS antenna pattern. As a results, the number of visible satellites and relative geometric condition of the GPS satellites at very high altitude drops dramatically and reduces the navigation solution accuracy. Therefore, the weak GPS system is also not an ideal way to provide PNT service to upcoming Lunar missions when considering its limited geometric condition and the recued navigation accuracy. Another navigation approach on the Moon is being developed, similar to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) on Earth, aiming to offer navigation service with continuous 24/7 coverage across the entire Lunar surface. For example, lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) by NASA and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS) by JAXA are designed to serve as dedicated Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems for the Moon. However, designing a dedicated LNSS and PNT service involves additional challenges, which are unique to the lunar environment, including limited payload capacity for the CubeSat platform, i.e., the size, weight, and power (SWaP) of the onboard clock, limited lunar ground monitoring stations, and limited financial investment as compared to the legacy Earth-GPS [9]. NASA’s focus on utilizing CubeSat platforms on the Moon leads to an alternative Lunar navigation platform that leverages the existing Lunar science and exploration assets. The small satellites used in Lunar missions can be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions [10]. As upcoming Lunar missions will often operate at low-altitude about 30 km to 100 km for scientific observations and mapping purposes, the low-altitude orbital constellations could be employed to create an ad-hoc Lunar PNT system. However, several issues must be addressed, such as the instability of these orbits, which often require maintenance or are only suitable for short-duration missions, operating for fewer than 90 days. Additionally, at an altitude of 100 km, the satellites have a limited period during which they are above the horizon and capable of providing PNT service to users. The implementation of a non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation facilitates on-demand PNT services. A preliminary study of ad-hoc Lunar PNT system was conducted using 21 spacecraft in 5,5000 km altitude frozen orbits to test its feasibility and a basic performance of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar constellations in small satellites format [10]. These swarm assets are designed for autonomous localization with minimal Earth interaction, reducing dependency on bandwidth and ground resources. The design in [10] demonstrated the feasibility of a decentralized PNT approach, specifically employing a DEKF approach for state estimation, which helps minimize onboard operating costs. The DEKF method distributes computation across individual satellites, which lightens the computational load while maintaining accuracy in orbit ephemeris and clock offsets, similar to centralized systems [11]. In a follow-on study [12], each spacecraft was limited to 2 communications antennae, forcing the selection of measurements and scheduling spacecraft activities to perform the measurements. A matching algorithm is implemented to select the best measurements and schedule position estimation updates. The decentralized localization performance is also investigated with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets considering the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure, to demonstrate the robustness and fidelity of the decentralized Lunar PNT service [13]. This study confirmed that the ad-hoc PNT constellations in frozen orbit are highly robust and resilient to communication failures. However, unlike frozen orbit swarm assets, the low-altitude satellites have a limited ground view at an altitude of 100 km, where the ad-hoc Lunar constellation consists of 98 low-altitude satellites, evenly distributed across seven circular polar orbital planes, alongside two satellites in a frozen orbit at an altitude of 5,500 km (Figure 1). Therefore, the number of satellites visible to ground users is significantly limited in low-altitude orbit constellations. As each visibility of a spacecraft remains intact for only a few ticks before it moves out of the field of view, the ground user encounters challenges in maintaining continuous navigation service, resulting in sparse availability and provision of Lunar PNT system. Consequently, service availability is primarily restricted to the Lunar South Pole region (Figure 2). Given these limitations and concerns, the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets will be assessed in this study. We focus on the investigation of the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets and ground users near the Lunar South Pole. The overall flow of the Lunar PNT simulation incorporates the DEKF approach of asset localization and the weighted least-squares approach in user localization (Figure 3). The autonomous Lunar PNT simulation is primarily implemented in MATLAB, where the DEKF based on the matching scheduler is implemented with Google’s OR-tools as a model builder and Gurobi optimization tool as a backend solver. The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is utilized to generate ephemeris data for swarm assets, and accounts for satellite orbital details, mass, and perturbations like solar radiation pressure and drag coefficients. Each ephemeris dataset is produced in the Moon International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) inertial coordinate system. For state estimation, the distributed swarm assets rely on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve tracking pseudoranges and relative velocities between visible satellites and anchor nodes during each observation. Numerical evaluations of the decentralized localization process are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the low-altitude PNT system in providing reliable navigation services. The main approach involves using DEKF and CEKF to localize 100 satellites in low-altitude constellations, where the CEKF is implemented to serve as a baseline for comparing the performance of distributed algorithms. In both cases, we evaluate ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets, and ‘two ISL’ measurements when spacecraft are constrained to have only two antennas. We test four estimation techniques: CEKF fully sampled, CEKF two ISL, DEKF fully sampled, and DEKF two ISL filters. As the DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations, a global broadcast network and 2-way ISL network setup will take from 4 to 6 minutes as maximum [12]. In this simulation, the DEKF update cycle is set to 10 minutes, including a 4-minute latency for obtaining and computing the actual measurement updates. We experiment an increased update cycle to demonstrate the feasibility and evaluate the impact on localization performance using various tuning values for measurement noise covariances (Figures 4 and 5). By comparing centralized and decentralized approaches using a matching algorithm, we analyze the influence of cross-correlation factors in the covariance matrix, assuming 100% reliability of all assets and measurements. The increased frequency and the adjustments of tuning parameters reveal distinct error patterns between the two scenarios. The localization accuracy of the swarm assets and ground users is assessed by taking the median error across 100 assets and one ground user (84.9°S, 137.5°E) over 7-day simulation period (Table 1). Since the user localization accuracy is significantly affected by the performance of the swarm assets, it is crucial to maintain high localization accuracy within the swarm. This study will continue to explore decentralized filtering for autonomous LPNT operations, with further investigation of an 'iterative' matching approach which enumerates every valid matching pair, planned for the following month.

Yeji Kim↗

Energy Efficient Clothes Dryer with IR Heating and Electrostatic Precipitator

The project goal was to develop a revolutionary energy saving technology for residential clothes drying. The team developed an IR (infrared) heating system and NESP (Nebulizer and Electro-Static Precipitator) for integration into a ventless clothes dryer. The proposed technology addresses two of the major inefficiencies in current electric vented dryers by providing effective energy transfer for the removal of the water and recapture of the vapor latent heat. The IR heaters operating in the mid wave (2.5-10um) are very efficient as they target the 3-micron peak absorption of the water molecule. This allows direct energy absorption, unlike conventional element heaters where heat is transferred by convection. The low power NESP removes water vapor from the exhausted stream and recaptures the latent heat in the ESP (Electro-Static Precipitator) exchanger section. This allows the warm dry air to be recirculated back into the drum for additional efficiency savings. The remaining majority of the dryer hardware stays the same. Summing the efficiency gain from the two subcomponents we anticipated the EF (Efficiency Factor) to exceed the goal of 4.04. EF is obtained by dividing the weight (lbs) of water removed by the energy (kWhr) used, where the test load size is 8.45 lbs of bone dry clothing wetted to 57.5% or 4.8lbs of water, and dried to a remaining moisture content of 2.5-5%. Additional benefits include not having to recondition (heat or cool) the large amounts of make-up air to replace the air exhausted by a vented dryer. It was anticipated that the NESP/heat exchanger would be the most challenging and highest risk element in the program. Therefore, the team focused their efforts during Phase 1 of the program on the design, construction, testing, and optimization of the NESP/heat exchanger. At the end Phase 1, the team compared the performance of the NESP/heat exchanger with the system level requirements and made a Go/No-Go decision on proceeding with the second portion of the program. Phase 2 of the program was structured to develop the IR heating system and then integrate it and the NESP/heat exchanger into a residential clothes dryer prototype for final testing. The proposed technology utilizes heat recovery which is known to have the biggest impact on dryer efficiency. The two current mainstream recovery approaches are air to air exchangers and heat pump condenser systems. Air to air exchanges can be very efficient but require large surface areas which are prone to fouling from uncaptured lint. Dryers based on heat pump condenser recovery systems have shown efficiency improvements of 20–60% and are commercially available. The issue with a heat pump condenser approach is the added cost, as typical prices are twice that of standard vented dryers and they are only available in small to medium capacities. The energy factor (EF) for these systems is 5.50 to 6.88 pounds/kWh compared to conventional dryers at 2.75 to 3.67 pounds/kWh. The efficiency improvements for the proposed technology come from the use of IR heating and the NESP. As the concept is in its infancy, and these improvements were difficult to predict without experimental data, assumptions were made based on available literature. IR radiant drying times, when compared to convection, are typically 30% less. This is a result of the fact that radiant energy heats directly and is absorbed at and below the surface, unlike convection heating, that must conduct the heat through the boundary film of air at the clothes surface and rely on wicking of the moisture to the surface. The second area of improvement comes from the NESP. The NESP operation is as follows: 1. Highly charged, micron sized, droplets of water are injected into the dryer exhaust by the Nebulizer. 2. These charged droplets attract water molecules and continue to grow in size, until losing their charge. During this process, latent heat is rejected back into the air stream. 3. The large droplets enter the ESP, where they are recharged and drawn to the ESP wall, to be extracted at the bottom of the ESP. The warm dry air is then recirculated back into the dryer. The proposed technology, at the time of the proposal submission was estimated to have an EF of 4.79. At program completion we have designed, built, tested, integrated and optimized the proposed technologies into a prototype “high efficiency” residential clothes dryer. Testing of the integrated prototype dryer provided insight into the technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of the proposed technologies. The program has the potential of greatly impacting energy savings. The predicted EF of the proposed technology is 4.79, yielding an energy savings of 42% when compared to conventional electric vented dryers. Given there are approximately 84 million dryers in the US consuming ~64 billion kWh per year, a net savings of 27 billion kWh per year or 0.092 quads could be realized. Since the dryer is not vented, make up air from the room is not needed, adding an additional savings of ~1kWh per load, or 23.8 billion kWh per year. In addition, it is envisioned that the proposed ESP, when successful, would potentially find applications in industrial and residential dehumidification.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Constructing the Pareto front for multi-objective Markov chains handling a strong Pareto policy approach

In this paper, we present a multi-objective solution of the Pareto front for a certain class of discrete-time ergodic controllable Markov chains. For solving the problem, we transform the original multi-objective problem into an equivalent nonlinear programming problem implementing the Lagrange principle. We then propose to adopt the Tikhonov’s regularization method to ensure the convergence of the cost functions to a unique point into the Pareto front. We show that Pareto policies are characterized as optimal policies. One of the fundamental problems related to the construction of the Pareto front is the existence and characterization of both, Pareto and strong Pareto policies. By introducing the Tikhonov’s regularizator, we ensure the existence of strong Pareto policies. This paper proposes a real solution to this problem. We formulate the original problem considering several constraints: (a) we employ the c-variable method for the introduction of linear constraints over the nonlinear problem and (b) restrict the cost functions, allowing points in the Pareto front to have a small distance from one another. The constraints imposed by the c-variable method make the problem computationally tractable and the restriction imposed by the small distance change ensures the continuation of the Pareto front. The resulting equation in this nonlinear system is an optimization problem for which the necessary and efficient condition of a minimum is solved using the projected gradient method. Moreover, we also prove the convergence conditions and compute the estimate rate of convergence of variables corresponding to the Lagrange principle and the Tikhonov’s regularization, respectively. We provide all the details needed to implement the proposed method in an efficient way. The usefulness of the method is successfully demonstrated by a numerical example.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluation of GEOS Precipitation Flagging for SMAP Soil Moisture Retrieval Accuracy

The precipitation flag in the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 2 passive soil moisture (L2SMP) retrieval product indicates the presence or absence of heavy precipitation at the time of the SMAP overpass. The flag is based on precipitation estimates from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Forward Processing numerical weather prediction system. An error in flagging during an active or recent precipitation event can produce either 1) an overestimation of soil moisture due to short-term surface wetting of vegetation and/or surface ponding (if soil moisture retrieval was attempted in the presence of rain) or 2) an unnecessary nonretrieval of soil moisture and loss of data (if retrieval is flagged due to an erroneous indication of rain). Satellite precipitation estimates from the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), version 06, Early Run (latency of ~4 h) precipitationCal product are used here to evaluate the GEOS-based precipitation flag in the L2SMP product for both the 1800 local time (LT) ascending and 0600 LT descending SMAP overpasses over the first five years of the mission (2015–20). Consisting of blended precipitation measurements from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) satellite constellation, IMERG is treated as the “truth” when comparing to the GEOS model forecasts of precipitation used by SMAP. Key results include (i) IMERG measurements generally show higher spatial variability than the GEOS forecast precipitation, (ii) the IMERG product has a higher frequency of light precipitation amounts, and (iii) the effect of incorporating IMERG rainfall measurements in lieu of GEOS precipitation forecasts are minimal on the L2SMP retrieval accuracy (determined vs in situ soil moisture measurements at core validation sites). Our results indicate that L2SMP retrievals continue to meet the mission’s accuracy requirement [standard deviation of the unbiased RMSE (ubRMSE) less than 0.04 cu. m/cu. m].

IMERG-precipitationCal↗