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NASA NTRS2011

A Data Mining Project to Identify Cardiovascular Related Factors That May Contribute to Changes in Visual Acuity Within the US Astronaut Corps

Many of the cardiovascular-related adaptations that occur in the microgravity environment are due, in part, to a well-characterized cephalad-fluid shift that is evidenced by facial edema and decreased lower limb circumference. It is believed that most of these alterations occur as a compensatory response necessary to maintain a "normal" blood pressure and cardiac output while in space. However, data from both flight and analog research suggest that in some instances these microgravity-induced alterations may contribute to cardiovascular-related pathologies. Most concerning is the potential relation between the vision disturbances experienced by some long duration crewmembers and changes in cerebral blood flow and intra-ocular pressure. The purpose of this project was to identify cardiovascular measures that may potentially distinguish individuals at risk for visual disturbances after long duration space flight. Toward this goal, we constructed a dataset from Medical Operation tilt/stand test evaluations pre- (days L-15-L-5) and immediate post-flight (day R+0) on 20 (3 females, 17 males). We restricted our evaluation to only crewmembers who participated in both shuttle and space station missions. Data analysis was performed using both descriptive and analytical methods (Stata 11.2, College Station, TX) and are presented as means +/- 95% CI. Crewmembers averaged 5207 (3447 - 8934) flight hours across both long (MIR-23 through Expedition16) and short (STS-27 through STS-101) duration missions between 1988 and 2008. The mean age of the crew at the time of their most recent shuttle flight was 41 (34-44) compared to 47 (40-54) years during their time on station. In order to focus our analysis (we did not have codes to separate out subjects by symptomotology) , we performed a visual inspection of each cardiovascular measures captured during testing and plotted them against stand time, pre- to post-flight, and between mission duration. It was found that pulse pressure most clearly differentiated the two mission types. Statistical analysis confirmed that pulse pressure was significantly higher before [45.6; (42.1 to 49.1)] and after [50.7; (46.9 to 54.6)] time on station compared with their most recent shuttle flight [31.6 (27.8 to 35.4), and 32.2 (28.3 to 36.0) respectively] even after correcting differences in age and cumulative number of mission hours. Without knowing the identity of which long duration crewmembers demonstrated visual changes, we were limited to examining whether certain crew regulate components of pulse pressure, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, differently due to microgravity exposure. To that end, we stratified crew into tertiles based on either their pre-flight measure of systolic or diastolic blood pressure. Those crew in the highest tertile for both systolic (lower tertile (n=8; 103-111), middle tertile (n=7; 113-121), and upper tertile (n=5; 125-136) and diastolic blood pressure (lower tertile (n=8; 58-64), middle tertile (n=7; 67-73), and upper tertile (n=5; 75-81) demonstrated less variability in pulse pressure between R+0 and L-10 (Figure 2). Interestingly, those crewmembers with the highest resting systolic blood pressure demonstrated either no change or in some instances an increase in total peripheral resistance, where those in the lower tertiles had lower values of total peripheral resistance compared to pre-flight levels. In this study, it was found that crewmembers in the highest tertile for both systolic and diastolic blood pressure demonstrated less variability in pulse pressure and that the decrease in variability was due in part to lower levels of compliance as indicated by similar or higher levels of total peripheral resistance after compared with before flight levels. Whether there is a relation between blood pressure regulation and total peripheral resistance in crew presenting with negative changes in visual acuity remains unknown.

Westby, Christian M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Project Management Using Modern Guidance, Navigation and Control Theory

Implementing guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) theory principles and applying them to the human element of project management and control is not a new concept. As both the literature on the subject and the real-world applications are neither readily available nor comprehensive with regard to how such principles might be applied, this paper has been written to educate the project manager on the "laws of physics" of his or her project (not to teach a GN&C engineer how to become a project manager) and to provide an intuitive, mathematical explanation as to the control and behavior of projects. This paper will also address how the fundamental principles of modern GN&C were applied to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Constellation Program (CxP) space suit project, ensuring the project was managed within cost, schedule, and budget. A project that is akin to a physical system can be modeled and managed using the same over arching principles of GN&C that would be used if that project were a complex vehicle, a complex system(s), or complex software with time-varying processes (at times nonlinear) containing multiple data inputs of varying accuracy and a range of operating points. The classic GN&C theory approach could thus be applied to small, well-defined projects; yet when working with larger, multiyear projects necessitating multiple organizational structures, numerous external influences, and a multitude of diverse resources, modern GN&C principles are required to model and manage the project. The fundamental principles of a GN&C system incorporate these basic concepts: State, Behavior, Feedback Control, Navigation, Guidance and Planning Logic systems. The State of a system defines the aspects of the system that can change over time; e.g., position, velocity, acceleration, coordinate-based attitude, and temperature, etc. The Behavior of the system focuses more on what changes are possible within the system; this is denoted in the state of the system. The behavior of a system, as captured in the system modeling, when properly done will aid in accurately predicting future system performance. The Feedback Control system understands the state and behavior of the system and uses feedback to adjust control inputs into the system. The feedback, which is the right arm of the Control system, allows change to be affected in the overall system; it therefore is important to not only correctly identify the system feedback inputs, but also the system response to the feedback inputs. The Navigation system takes multiple data inputs and based on a priori knowledge of the inputs, develops a statistically based weighting of the inputs and measurements to determine the system's state. Guidance and Planning Logic of the system, complete with an understanding of where the system is (provided by the Navigation system), will in turn determine where the system needs to be and how to get it there. With any system/project, it is critical that the objective of the system/project be clearly defined -- not only to plan but to measure performance and to aid in guiding the system or the project. The system principles discussed above, which can be and have been applied to the current CxP space suit development project, can also be mapped to real-world constituents, thus allowing project managers to apply systems theories that are well defined in engineering and mathematics to a discipline (i.e., Project Management) that historically has been based in personal experience and intuition. This mapping of GN&C theory to Project Management will, in turn, permit a direct, methodical approach to Project Management, planning and control providing a tool to help predict (and guide) performance and an understanding of the project constraints, how the project can be controlled, and the impacts to external influences and inputs. This approach, to a project manager, flows down to the three bottom-line variables of cost, schedule, and scope ando the needed control of these three variables to successfully perform and complete a project.

Hill, Terry R.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data-based filtered dissipation rate modelling for multi-modal turbulent combustion: evaluating a priori model generalizability

Manifold-based models offer a computationally efficient alternative to directly transporting the thermochemical state in computational simulations of turbulent reacting flows, projecting the high-dimensional thermochemical state-space onto a low-dimensional manifold. Recent efforts have yielded a manifold-based model applicable to multi-modal combustion, enabling reconstruction of the thermochemical state from solutions to two-dimensional manifold equations in mixture fraction and generalized progress variable that are parameterised by three scalar dissipation rates. In coarse-grained simulations such as Large Eddy Simulation (LES), closure of the multi-modal manifold equations and subfilter variances/covariance requires closure of three filtered scalar dissipation rates. Here, the present work adopts a data-based approach, providing closure for the three filtered scalar dissipation rates via deep neural networks (DNNs). High-fidelity datasets corresponding to an autoigniting n-dodecane jet flame and a bluff body swirl-stabilized confined lifted spray flame of two aviation fuels (Jet-A and C1) with different ignition propensities are leveraged to generate training data that spans a diverse range of thermodynamic conditions and combustion modes, including low- and high-temperature ignition regimes in addition to premixed and nonpremixed behaviour. A final DNN model is trained to enforce inherent physical constraints by learning nonlinear functional transformations of the three filtered scalar dissipation rates. The generalizability of this constrained DNN model is demonstrated a priori via conditional statistics evaluated on the lifted spray flame with C1–a configuration that had not been included in the training data. Excellent DNN agreement with conditional DNS statistics is observed, and integrated gradients are computed to identify the most sensitive input variables. The similarity of the marginal PDFs of the most informative input variables and outputs across configurations are quantified via the Wasserstein metric, demonstrating that data-based models may successfully generalize to unseen parametric conditions so long as the most informative input variables share similar distributions across training and testing datasets.

Data-based modelling↗

NASA NTRS1993

Dispersed ion structures at the poleward edge of the auroral oval: Low-altitude observations and numerical modeling

We have compared the AUREOL 3 (A3) observations of auroral ion precipitation, particularly ion beams, with the results from the global kinetic model of magnetotail plasma of Ashour-Abdalla et al. (1993). We have identified 101 energetic keV H(+) velocity dispersed precipitating ion structures (VDIS) with fluxes above 10(exp -3) ergs./sq cm./s in the A3 record between the end of 1981 and mid-1984. These beams display a systematic increase in energy with increasing latitude and were observed in a narrow region within less than 1 deg in latitude of the polar cap boundary. The VDIS are the most distinctive feature in the auroral zone of the plasma sheet boundary layer. We report first on a statistical analysis of the possible ralationships between magnetic activity or substorm phase and the VDIS properties. Our particle simulations of the precipitating ions have been extended by using a series of modified versions of the Tsyganenko (1989) magnetic field model and by varying the cross-magnetosphere electric field. In the simulations, plasma from a mantle source is subject to strong nonlinear acceleration, forming beams which flow along the PSBL. Only 3 to 4% of these beams precipitate into the ionosphere to form the VDIS while the majority return to the equatorial plane after mirroring and form the thermalized central plasma sheet. The final energy and the dispersion of the beams in the model depend on the amplitude of the cross-tail electric field. Two unsual observations of low-energy (less than 5 keV) O(+) VDIS, shifted by 4 deg 5 deg in invariant latitude equatorward of H(+) VDIS are analyzed in detail. The sparsity of such O(+) events and the absence of the changes in the flux and frequency of occurrence indicate a solar wind origin for the plasma. Finally, large-scale kinetic modeling, even with its simplifications and assumptions (e.g., static magnetic field, solar wind source), reproduces low-altitude auroral ion features fairly well; it may therefore be presented as an appropriate framework into which data on energization and transport of the hot plasma, obtained in the equatorial plane, could be inserted in the near future.

Bosqued, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Unsteady Pressure-Sensitive-Paint Shot Noise Reduction

In the study of unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint (uPSP) image data sets, pixel intensity values collected by Phantom cameras from multiple perspectives are used to calculate the surface pressure of an experimental model. This paper focuses on mitigation of shot noise which is introduced into the image data set by the cameras. Shot noise impacts the quality of data collected, increasing the system error in its pressure value calculations. This paper characterises statistical methods to reduce shot noise within experimental data by taking an average or weighted average across an area of pixels of their respective counts. Each combined-pixel has a higher total effective intensity value and therefore exhibits reduced noise throughout its time history. This is demonstrated by calculating the standard deviations of the combined pixel values through time, which decrease as the combined pixel area increases. Finally, these methods are compared across experimental wind tunnel conditions to examine their effectiveness at different Mach numbers. Ultimately, the results are used to recommend a blur filter type and size which will be applied to the raw image data prior to processing, as well as a minimum camera resolution for future experiments. Downstream of the filter application, the software to convert the 2D image data sets into surface pressure readings on a 3D grid use a ratio of decimation that assigns multiple pixels to each 3D grid node. This decimation ratio will also be aligned with the size of the blur filter, resulting in a more manageable data set size and compromised spatial resolution. Combined with the effect of the blur filter, the resulting pixel intensity readings will exhibit significantly reduced shot noise, reducing the magnitude of uncertainty and error in the final calculated pressure. For future tests, the camera spatial resolution must be sufficient to capture small flow and model features even after the recommended blur filter is applied. The image data set is taken from a uPSP experiment of the Space Launch System Block 1 cargo vehicle model in September 2019.

Lucy Tang↗

NASA NTRS2021

Unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint (UPSP) Shot Noise Reduction

Lucy Tang↗

NASA NTRS1999

Real-Time Assimilation of Goes-Derived Products into A Mesoscale Model and It's Impact on Short-Term (06-36hr) Forecasts from 17 October 1998 through the Present

As the parameterizations of surface energy budgets in regional models have become more complete physically, models have the potential to be much more realistic in simulations of coupling between surface radiation, hydrology, and surface energy transfer. Realizing the importance of properly specifying the surface energy budget, many institutions are using land-surface models to represent the lower boundary forcing associated with biophysical processes and soil hydrology. However, the added degrees of freedom due to inclusion of such land-surface schemes require the specification of additional parameters within the model system such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. Spatial heterogeneity of these parameters makes correct specification problematic since measurements are not routinely available. A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-IR skin temperature tendencies, solar insolation, and surface albedo into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. The technique has been successfully employed in a number of mesoscale models in case-study mode. We have taken the next step and developed a study to determine if assimilating these types of data into mesoscale models in real-time can improve short-term (648h) forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, and QPF on a daily basis over relatively large regions. Therefore, an operational modeling/assimilation system has been developed at the GHCC during the past summer that allows us to produce simulations out to 48 hours in a timely manor. The PSU/NCAR MM5 is used in a nested configuration with a 25 km grid covering the southeastern third of the US. The model has been on-line since 1 July 1998 and forecast products are posted on our web site. The satellite algorithms that generate data to be assimilated came on-line 17 October 1998. Quantitative assessment of the forecast quality is performed via traditional verification statistics. In addition, invaluable qualitative information is obtained through close collaboration with several NWSFO's who are using the MM5 products in real-time on a daily basis. The assimilation technique has been applied in an off-line mode since 17 October. Results based on bulk statistical verification of surface meteorology over the entire Southeastern US show that assimilating the GOES-derived land surface tendencies and solar radiation results in a significant reduction of the shelter air temperature and RH bias on a daily basis. In fact, the assimilation technique has produced improved temperature and RH forecasts for 97% of the 100 simulations performed to date. Work is currently underway to determine the sensitivity of the assimilation procedure to the availability of satellite data, length of assimilation period, model initialization, and synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. In addition, results from a detailed energy budget analysis using the Early Eta, our operational MM5, and the assimilation runs will help us to better understand the satellite assimilation the land-surface energy budge. Research during the spring-summer of 1999 will focus on the impact of the assimilation technique during the warm season where it is hypothesized that it can have a positive impact on QPF during conditions of weak synoptic-scale forcing.

Lapenta, William M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evolution of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross sections and stiffness of dense nuclear matter from Bayesian analyses of FOPI proton-flow excitation functions

Within a Bayesian statistical framework using a Gaussian process (GP) emulator for an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions with momentum-independent Skyrme interactions, we infer from the proton directed and elliptical flow in mid-central Au + Au reactions, measured at beam energies from 150 to 1200 MeV/nucleon by the FOPI Collaboration, the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross section (BBSCS) modification factor 𝑋 (with respect to their free-space values) and the stiffness parameter 𝐾 of dense nuclear matter. Here, we find that the most probable value of 𝑋 evolves from around 0.7 to 1.0 as the beam energy 𝐸 beam /𝐴 increases. On the other hand, the posterior PDF⁡(𝐾) may have dual peaks having roughly the same height or extended shoulders at high 𝐾 values. More quantitatively, the posterior PDF⁡(𝐾) changes from having a major peak around 220 MeV, characterizing a soft EOS in the reaction at 𝐸 beam /𝐴 = 150 MeV, to one that peaks around 320 MeV, indicating a stiff EOS in the reactions at 𝐸 beam /𝐴 higher than about 600 MeV. The transition from soft to stiff happens in mid-central Au + Au reactions at beam energies around 250 MeV/nucleon in which 𝐾 = 220 MeV and 𝐾 = 320 MeV are approximately equally probable. Altogether, the FOPI proton-flow excitation function data indicate a gradual hardening of hot and dense nuclear matter as its density and temperature increase in reactions with higher beam energies.

nuclear matter↗

NASA NTRS2014

Peak Oxygen Uptake during and after Long-duration Space Flight

Aerobic capacity (VO2peak) previously has not been measured during or after long-duration spaceflight. PURPOSE: To measure VO2peak and submaximal exercise responses during and after International Space Station (ISS) missions. METHODS: Astronauts (9 M, 5 F: 49 +/- 5 yr, 175 +/- 7 cm, 77.2 +/- 15.1 kg, 40.6 +/- 6.4 mL/kg/min [mean +/-SD]) performed graded peak cycle tests ~90 days before spaceflight, 15 d (FD15) after launch and every ~30 d thereafter during flight, and 1 (R+1), 10 (R+10), and 30 d (R+30) after landing. Oxygen consumption (VO2) and heart rate (HR) were measured from rest to peak exercise, while cardiac output (Q), stroke volume (SV), and arterial-venous oxygen difference (a-vO2diff) were measured only during rest and submaximal exercise. Data were analyzed using mixed-model linear regression. Body mass contributed significantly to statistical models, and thus results are reported as modeled estimates for an average subject. RESULTS: Early inflight (FD15) VO2peak was 17% lower (95% CI = - 22%, -13%) than preflight. VO2peak increased during spaceflight (0.001 L/min/d, P = 0.02) but did not return to preflight levels. On R+1 VO2peak was 15% (95% CI = -19%, -10%) lower than preflight but recovered to within 2% of preflight by R+30 (95% CI = -6%, +3%). Peak HR was not significantly different from preflight at any time. Inflight submaximal VO2 and a-vO2diff were generally lower than preflight, but the Q vs. VO2 slope was unchanged. In contrast, the SV vs. VO2 slope was lower (P < 0.001), primarily due to elevated SV at rest, and the HR vs. VO2 slope was greater (P < 0.001), largely due to elevated HR during more intense exercise. On R+1 although the relationships between VO2 and Q, SV, and HR were not statistically different than preflight, resting and submaximal exercise SV was lower (P < 0.001), resting and submaximal exercise HR was higher (P < 0.002), and a-vO2diff was unchanged. HR and SV returned to preflight levels by R+30. CONCLUSION: In the average astronaut VO2peak was reduced during spaceflight and immediately after landing but factors contributing to lower VO2peak may be different during spaceflight and recovery. Maintaining Q while VO2 is reduced inflight may be suggestive of an elevated blood flow to vascular beds other than exercising muscles, but decreased SV after flight likely reduces Q at peak exertion.

Moore, Alan D., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Quasi-decadal variability of the stratosphere: Influence of long-term solar ultraviolet variations

A multiple regression statistical model is applied to investigate the existence of upper-stratospheric ozone, temperature, and zonal wind responses to long-term (solar cycle) changes in solar ultraviolet radiation using 11.5 years of reprocessed Nimbus-7 Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) data and 12.4 years of National Meteorological Center (NMC) data. A positive solar cycle variation of independently measured ozone and temperature occurs with maximum amplitude near the low-latitude stratopause. The seasonal solar regression coefficients near 1 mb for both ozone and temperature occur at low latitudes supporting a role for photochemical and radiative forcing in their origin. Zonal wind perturbations that correlate with long-term solar ultraviolet variations are a strong function of season and pressure level. Above approximately 2 mbar, the largest solar-correlated zonal wind enhancements occur at middle winter latitudes near the time of winter solstice in both hemispheres. The Northern Hemisphere December enhancement at 1 mb was especially large, 23 +/- 9 m/s from solar minimum to maximum during the last solar cycle. The derived ozone, temperature, and zonal wind increases with increasing solar ultraviolet flux near the stratopause are larger than predicted by models that consider primarily photochemical and radiative processes. The higher ozone and temperature response amplitudes at low latitudes may be due to modified ozone transport and adiabatic temperature changes induced by the dynamical response. If the midlatitude winter solstice wind enhancements are solar induced, their high amplitudes require a positive feedback due to wave-mean flow interaction such that the planetary wave drag on the flow is reduced under solar maximum conditions.

Hood, L. L.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Thermochemical Ablation Analysis of the Orion Heatshield

The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle will one day carry astronauts to the Moon and beyond, and Orion's heatshield is a critical component in ensuring their safe return to Earth. The Orion heatshield is the structural component responsible for absorbing the intense heating environment caused by re-entry to Earth's atmosphere. The heatshield is primarily composed of Avcoat, an ablative material that is consumed during the re-entry process. Ablation is primarily characterized by two processes: pyrolysis and recession. The decomposition of in-depth virgin material is known as pyrolysis. Recession occurs when the exposed surface of the heatshield reacts with the surrounding flow. The Orion heatshield design was changed from an individually filled Avcoat honeycomb to a molded block Avcoat design. The molded block Avcoat heatshield relies on an adhesive bond to keep it attached to the capsule. In some locations on the heatshield, the integrity of the adhesive bond cannot be verified. For these locations, a mechanical retention device was proposed. Avcoat ablation was modelled in CHAR and the in-depth virgin material temperatures were used in a Thermal Desktop model of the mechanical retention device. The retention device was analyzed and shown to cause a large increase in the maximum bondline temperature. In order to study the impact of individual ablation modelling parameters on the heatshield sizing process, a Monte Carlo simulation of the sizing process was proposed. The simulation will give the sensitivity of the ablation model to each of its input parameters. As part of the Monte Carlo simulation, statistical uncertainties on material properties were required for Avcoat. Several properties were difficult to acquire uncertainties for: the pyrolysis gas enthalpy, non-dimensional mass loss rate (B´c), and Arrhenius equation parameters. Variability in the elemental composition of Avcoat was used as the basis for determining the statistical uncertainty in pyrolysis gas enthalpy and B´c. A MATLAB program was developed to allow for faster, more accurate and automated computation of Arrhenius reaction parameters. These parameters are required for a material model to be used in the CHAR ablation analysis program. This MATLAB program, along with thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) data, was used to generate uncertainties on the Arrhenius parameters for Avcoat. In addition, the TGA fitting program was developed to provide Arrhenius parameters for the ablation model of the gap filler material, RTV silicone.

Sixel, William↗

NASA NTRS1989

Computational simulation of transition to turbulence through inverse modeling

The present investigation has focused on a computational methodology for the fundamental case of transition in channel flow, in which recently published experimental data are utilized both as a stimulus and as a measure of merit of the method. The research has proceeded along three avenues in parallel. The first task has consisted of the development and verification of a computer code which calculates the mean evolution of flow in a channel similar to the one employed experimentally by Blair and Anderson. An analytical test case was created for the dual purposes of code verification and of highlighting the interactions between the Reynolds stress and the mean velocity profile. This test case generated a Reynolds stress by the residue in the momentum equation which is produced by a typical analytical velocity profile. By a substitution of this Reynolds stress into the appropriate code module, the correctness of the code may be verified, along with the accuracy of the computational method. The second task pursued has involved the development of a triple layer model for the Reynolds stress profile, which was suggested and derived from experimental velocity profiles. It is demonstrated that the innermost length scale is based on the local friction velocity, the intermediate layer corresponds to the usual logarithmic law of the wall region in which the normalized Reynolds stress is approximately unity, and the outermost layer is represented by a closed mathematical form depending explicitly on the velocity profile in the wake region. The third task was comprised of scrutiny of the excellent databases developed by Blair and others, and the planning of its incorporation into the transition analysis. These extensive measurements indicate that turbulent statistics in the transition regime may be considered to alternate between laminar and fully turbulent types, the proportions of which are quantified by a measured intermittency function.

Sepri, Paavo↗

NASA NTRS2011

Direct Numerical Simulations of Transitional/Turbulent Wakes

The interest in transitional/turbulent wakes spans the spectrum from an intellectual pursuit to understand the complex underlying physics to a critical need in aeronautical engineering and other disciplines to predict component/system performance and reliability. Cylinder wakes have been studied extensively over several decades to gain a better understanding of the basic flow phenomena that are encountered in such flows. Experimental, computational and theoretical means have been employed in this effort. While much has been accomplished there are many important issues that need to be resolved. The physics of the very near wake of the cylinder (less than three diameters downstream) is perhaps the most challenging of them all. This region comprises the two detached shear layers, the recirculation region and wake flow. The interaction amongst these three components is to some extent still a matter of conjecture. Experimental techniques have generated a large percentage of the data that have provided us with the current state of understanding of the subject. More recently computational techniques have been used to simulate cylinder wakes, and the data from such simulations are being used to both refine our understanding of such flows as well as provide new insights. A few large eddy and direct numerical simulations (LES and DNS) of cylinder wakes have appeared in the literature in the recent past. These investigations focus on the low Reynolds number range where the cylinder boundary layer is laminar (sub-critical range). However, from an engineering point of view, there is considerable interest in the situation where the upper and/or lower boundary layer of an airfoil is turbulent, and these turbulent boundary layers separate from the airfoil to contribute to the formation of the wake downstream. In the case of cylinders, this only occurs at relatively large unit Reynolds numbers. However, in the case of airfoils, the boundary layer has the opportunity to transition to turbulence on the airfoil surface at a relatively lower unit Reynolds number because the characteristic length of the airfoil is typically one to two orders of magnitude larger than the trailing edge diameter. This transition to turbulence would occur unless there is a strong favorable pressure gradient that results in the boundary layer remaining laminar or transitional over the surface of the airfoil. This presentation will focus on two direct numerical simulations that have been performed at NASA ARC. The first is of a cylinder wake with laminar separating boundary layers. The second is the wake of a flat plate with a circular trailing edge. The upper and lower plate surface boundary layers are both turbulent and statistically identical. Thus the computed wake is symmetric in a statistical sense. This flow is more representative of airfoil wakes than cylinder wakes. Results from the two simulations including flow visualization and turbulence statistics in the near wake will be presented at the seminar.

wakes↗

NASA NTRS2004

National Airspace System Delay Estimation Using Weather Weighted Traffic Counts

Assessment of National Airspace System performance, which is usually measured in terms of delays resulting from the application of traffic flow management initiatives in response to weather conditions, volume, equipment outages and runway conditions, is needed both for guiding flow control decisions during the day of operations and for post operations analysis. Comparison of the actual delay, resulting from the traffic flow management initiatives, with the expected delay, based on traffic demand and other conditions, provides the assessment of the National Airspace System performance. This paper provides a method for estimating delay using the expected traffic demand and weather. In order to identify the cause of delays, 517 days of National Airspace System delay data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration s Operations Network were analyzed. This analysis shows that weather is the most important causal factor for delays followed by equipment and runway delays. Guided by these results, the concept of weather weighted traffic counts as a measure of system delay is described. Examples are given to show the variation of these counts as a function of time of the day. The various datasets, consisting of aircraft position data, enroute severe weather data, surface wind speed and visibility data, reported delay data and number of aircraft handled by the Centers data, and their sources are described. The procedure for selecting reference days on which traffic was minimally impacted by weather is described. Different traffic demand on each reference day of the week, determined by analysis of 42 days of traffic and delay data, was used as the expected traffic demand for each day of the week. Next, the method for computing the weather weighted traffic counts using the expected traffic demand, derived from reference days, and the expanded regions around severe weather cells is discussed. It is shown via a numerical example that this approach improves the dynamic range of the weather weighted traffic counts considerably. Time histories of these new weather weighted traffic counts are used for synthesizing two statistical features, six histogram features and six time domain features. In addition to these enroute weather features, two surface weather features of number of major airports in the United States with high mean winds and low mean visibility are also described. A least squares procedure for establishing a functional relation between the features, using combinations of these features, and system delays is explored using 36 days of data. Best correlations between the estimated delays using the functional relation and the actual delays provided by the Operations Network are obtained with two different combinations of features: 1) six time domain features of weather weighted traffic counts plus two surface weather features, and 2) six histogram features and mean of weather weighted traffic counts along with the two surface weather features. Correlation coefficient values of 0.73 and 0.83 were found in these two instances.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

NASA NTRS2004

The North Pacific as a Regulator of Summertime Climate Over North America and the Asian Monsoon

The interannual variability of summertime rainfall over the U.S. may be linked to climate anomalies over Pacific and East Asia through teleconnection patterns that may be components of recurring global climate modes in boreal summer (Lau and Weng 2002). In this study, maintenance of the boreal summer teleconnection patterns is investigated. The particular focus is on the potential effects of North Pacific air-sea interaction on climate anomalies over the U.S. Observational data, reanalysis and outputs of a series of NASA NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to NASA GSFC MLO model experiments are used. Statistical analysis of observations and NSIPP AMIP type simulations indicates that, the interannual variability of observed warm season precipitation over the U.S. is related to SST variation in both tropical and North Pacific, whereas the NSIPP AMIP simulated summertime US. precipitation variation mainly reflects impact of ENS0 in tropical Pacific. This implies the potential importance of air-sea interaction in North Pacific in contributing to the interannual variability of observed summer climate over the U.S. The anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with the dominant summertime teleconnection modes in both observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations are further diagnosed, using stationary wave modeling approach. In observations, for the two dominant modes, both anomalous diabatic heating and anomalous transients significantly contribute to the anomalous circulation. The distributions of the anomalous diabatic heating and transient forcing are quadrature configured over North Pacific and North America, so that both forcings act constructively to maintain the teleconnection patterns. The contrast between observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations from stationary wave modeling diagnosis confirms the previous conclusion based on statistical analysis. To better appreciate the role of extra-tropical air-sea interaction in maintaining the summertime teleconnection pattern, various dynamical and physical fields and their inter- linkage in the series of NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to MLO model experiments are examined in-depth. Based on comparison between different model experiments, we will discuss the physical and dynamical mechanisms through which the air-sea interaction in extratropics, and transient mean flow interactions over the North Pacific, affects interannual variation of U.S. climate during boreal summer.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting Lightning at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a set of statistical forecast equations that provide a probability of lightning occurrence on Kennedy Space Center (KSC) I Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for the day during the warm season (May September). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at CCAFS in Florida include a probability of lightning occurrence in their daily 24-hour and weekly planning forecasts, which are briefed at 1100 UTC (0700 EDT). This information is used for general scheduling of operations at CCAFS and KSC. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts for the KSC/CCAFS area during Shuttle flight operations. Much of the current lightning probability forecast at both groups is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The objective tool currently available is the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI, Neumann 1971), developed specifically for the KSCICCAFS area over 30 years ago. However, recent studies have shown that 1-day persistence provides a better forecast than the NPTI, indicating that the NPTI needed to be upgraded or replaced. Because they require a tool that provides a reliable estimate of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast, the 45 WS forecasters requested that the AMU develop a new lightning probability forecast tool using recent data and more sophisticated techniques now possible through more computing power than that available over 30 years ago. The equation development incorporated results from two research projects that investigated causes of lightning occurrence near KSCICCAFS and over the Florida peninsula. One proved that logistic regression outperformed the linear regression method used in NPTI, even when the same predictors were used. The other study found relationships between large scale flow regimes and spatial lightning distributions over Florida. Lightning, probabilities based on these flow regimes were used as candidate predictors in the equation development. Fifteen years (1 989-2003) of warm season data were used to develop the forecast equations. The data sources included a local network of cloud-to-ground lightning sensors called the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS), 1200 UTC Florida synoptic soundings, and the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding. Data from CGLSS were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The 1200 UTC soundings were used to calculate the synoptic-scale flow regimes and the 1000 UTC soundings were used to calculate local stability parameters, which were used as candidate predictors of lightning occurrence. Five logistic regression forecast equations were created through careful selection and elimination of the candidate predictors. The resulting equations contain five to six predictors each. Results from four performance tests indicated that the equations showed an increase in skill over several standard forecasting methods, good reliability, an ability to distinguish between non-lightning and lightning days, and good accuracy measures and skill scores. Given the overall good performance the 45 WS requested that the equations be transitioned to operations and added to the current set of tools used to determine the daily lightning probability of occurrence.

Lambert, Winfred↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enabling probabilistic learning on manifolds through double diffusion maps

Here, we present a generative learning framework for probabilistic sampling that extends Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM), which is designed to generate statistically consistent realizations of a random vector in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space, informed by a (representative) set of observations. In its original form, PLoM constructs a reduced-order probabilistic model by combining three main components: (a) kernel density estimation to approximate the underlying probability measure, (b) Diffusion Maps to characterize the manifold of the data, and (c) a reduced-order Itô Stochastic Differential Equation (ISDE) to sample from the learned distribution. However, its sampling dynamics are posed in the ambient space and the retained number of reduced coordinates is chosen by projection-reconstruction error. In practice, this often (i) requires more coordinates than the data’s intrinsic dimension to achieve stable sampling and (ii) lacks a smooth, basis-independent lifting back to the data domain; moreover, standard Diffusion Maps emphasize harmonic eigenfunctions and can miss non-harmonic latent structure. We address these limitations by decoupling geometry learning from sampling: a first Diffusion Maps pass identifies non-harmonic coordinates on which we formulate a full-order ISDE directly in the latent space, while Double Diffusion Maps captures multiscale geometric features and Geometric Harmonics (GH) learns a smooth lifting map to the ambient variables that is independent of the particular diffusion basis. This hybrid design preserves the system’s dynamical richness with a compact geometric representation and enables principled out-of-sample inference. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method are illustrated through two numerical studies: one based on data generated from two-dimensional Hermite polynomial functions and another based on high-fidelity simulations of a detonation wave in a reactive flow.

Double diffusion maps↗

NASA NTRS1999

Strategies and Technologies for In Situ Mineralogical Investigations on Mars

Surface landers on Mars (Viking and Pathfinder) have not revealed satisfying answers to the mineralogy and lithology of the planet's surface. In part, this results from their prime directives: Viking focused on exobiology, Pathfinder focused on technology demonstration. The analytical instruments on board the landers made admirable attempts to extract the mineralogy and geology of Mars, as did countless modeling efforts after the missions. Here we suggest a framework for elucidating martian, or any other planetary geology, through an approach that defines (a) type of information required, (b) explorational strategy harmonious with acquisition of these data, (c) interpretation approach to the data, (d) compatible mission architecture, (e) instrumentation for interrogating rocks and soil. (a) Data required: The composition of a planet is ordered at scales ranging from molecules to minerals to rocks, and from geological units to provinces to planetary-scale systems. The largest ordering that in situ compositional instruments can attempt to interrogate is rock type "aggregate" information. This is what the geologist attempts to identify first. From this, mineralogy can be either directly seen or inferred. From mineralogy can be determined elemental abundances and perhaps the state of the compounds as being crystalline or amorphous. Knowledge of rock type and mineralogy is critical for elucidating geologic process. Mars landers acquired extremely valuable elemental data, but attempted to move from elements to aggregates, but this can only be done by making many assumptions and sometimes giant leaps of faith. Data we believe essential are elements, minerals, degree of ordering of compounds, and the aggregate or rock type that these materials compose. (b) Explorational strategy: A lander should function as a surrogate geologist. Of the total landscape, a geologist sees much, but gives detailed attention to an infinitesimally small amount of what is seen. To acquire samples worth detailed scrutiny, as many samples as possible need examining at a cursory or reconnaissance level. A representative, statistically-meaningful sample number cannot be overemphasized. This maxim still applies to geological exploration of our own planet of which we have abundant knowledge. Analysis of many samples mandates low-power consumption per sample. (c) Data interpretation: No single instrument can analyze the full spectrum of the x-axis. An instrument is optimized for detecting certain material characteristics and must therefore affix itself to some point on the x-axis. Any conclusions drawn about data to the left or right of the instrument's position on this axis must necessarily be derived by inference. Hence, it seems logical to include on a mission, instruments that are not closely spaced in their x-axis-position, and if only two analytical methods are used, as shown, they should start at opposite ends of the axis and work towards the center. As examples, we depict a high-resolution camera to evaluate rock type ("aggregate" state) and mineralogy, and an x-ray diffractometer-fluorescence spectrometer (XRD-XRF) to determine elements, minerals, and the degree of order of materials. (d) Mission architecture: No instrument or suite of instruments can be relied upon to always give truly unequivocal analyses. The suite of instruments should therefore permit conclusions of one instrument to be checked against those of another through closed analytical loops. These "loops" can be structured by a combination of orbital imagery, descent imagery, broad-band site viewing/analysis, and data that cover both x and y axes. For example, the detection of a basaltic-looking rock with a microscope should be checked against the elements detected, the appearance of the rock as a lava flow from descent imagery, and so forth. (e) Instrumentation: To satisfy the above criteria, it is necessary to: (i) See the rock or soil with high resolution + magnification, (ii) Examine many samples, (iii) Consume little power per analysis, (iv) Determine elemental species, (v) Determine mineralogy directly (not inferentially) and the degree of ordering of compounds, (vi) Start analyzing from both ends of the x-axis. Every geologist wants to see the hand sample first, and apply a hand lens to its surface. This has not been the starting point for missions to Mars. Thus, our technology satisfies all these criteria . This XRD-XRF-Optical instrument currently being developed, analyses rock or soil surfaces without the need for sample acquisition or preparation; this satisfies the power criterion, and enables many analyses. The device acquires direct mineralogy and determines elemental species. The embedded endoscopic camera satisfies the critical criterion of close inspection of samples; the fiber optic cable can also be used for IR, LTV, or laser sample analysis. Additional information is contained in the original (Figures).

Marshall, J. R.↗