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At least 541 records · Page 30

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Restoration Tool): Each year hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States damage critical infrastructure assets, disrupt the services they provide, and cause millions to billions of dollars in economic impacts due to extended recovery times. The Storm-DEPART tool and analytical output enable more impactful data-driven decision-making capabilities and strengthen national-level disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Storm-DEPART, built through multi-month collaboration between Entergy and INL, combines Entergy’s critical infrastructure inventory data with weather forecasts to predict damages to Electric utility’s assets due to natural disasters and the estimated recovery support needed, including time, materials, and resource allocation. In the event of an approaching hurricane, this innovative solution can assess potential damage to power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets from wind bands, storm surge, and flooding. With more effective predictions, Entergy can more efficiently allocate resources to mitigate impacts and optimize recovery for customers. Storm-DEPART also allows Electric utilities the ability to apply a planning scenario and model expected damage to better inform infrastructure restoration needs leading to enhance system resiliency. The technology is fully transferrable to other electric utilities with the same damage estimating challenges. The INL team is working on the evolution of Storm-DEPART to include ice event damage prediction framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Tower-based Prototype VHF/UHF Radar for Subsurface Sensing: System Description and Data Inversion Results

Knowledge of subsurface characteristics such as permittivity variations and layering structure could provide a breakthrough in many terrestrial and planetary science disciplines. For Earth science, knowledge of subsurface and subcanopy soil moisture layers can enable the estimation of vertical flow in the soil column linking surface hydrologic processes with that in the subsurface. For planetary science, determining the existence of subsurface water and ice is regarded as one of the most critical information needs for the study of the origins of the solar system. The subsurface in general can be described as several near-parallel layers with rough interfaces. Each homogenous rough layer can be defined by its average thickness, permittivity, and rms interface roughness assuming a known surface spectral distribution. As the number and depth of layers increase, the number of measurements needed to invert for the layer unknowns also increases, and deeper penetration capability would be required. To nondestructively calculate the characteristics of the rough layers, a multifrequency polarimetric radar backscattering approach can be used. One such system is that we have developed for data prototyping of the Microwave Observatory of Subcanopy and Subsurface (MOSS) mission concept. A tower-mounted radar makes backscattering measurements at VHF, UHF, and L-band frequencies. The radar is a pulsed CW system, which uses the same wideband antenna to transmit and receive the signals at all three frequencies. To focus the beam at various incidence angles within the beamwidth of the antenna, the tower is moved vertically and measurements made at each position. The signals are coherently summed to achieve focusing and image formation in the subsurface. This requires an estimate of wave velocity profiles. To solve the inverse scattering problem for subsurface velocity profile simultaneously with radar focusing, we use an iterative technique based on a forward numerical solution of the layered rough surface problem. The layers are each defined in terms of a small number of unknown distributions as given above. An a priori estimate of the solution is first assumed, based on which the forward problem is solved for the backscattered measurements. This is compared with the measured data and using iterative techniques an update to the solution for the unknowns is calculated. The process continues until convergence is achieved. Numerical results will be shown using actual radar data acquired with the MOSS tower radar system in Arizona in Fall 2003, and compared with in-situ measurements.

Moghaddam, Mahta↗

Computer Code Study of Asteroid Entry into Venusian Atmosphere: Pressure and Density Fields

Analysis of the cratering records on the Moon, Mercury, and Mars have shown similar size-frequency distributions of craters produced during the late heavy bombardment of the inner solar system (Strom, 1988). Venus provides a valuable data base of information on the impacting population for more recent time. Because of resurfacing events, the Venusian cratering record has been estimated to be only about 500 million years old, and for the most part is in pristine condition, thereby producing an opportunity to discover the properties (size/velocity distribution) of the objects that recently impacted its surface. The Magellan IR mapping of the Venusian surface has produced an extremely high-quality set of crater topographies. The observed deficit of small craters is qualitatively explained by atmospheric effects on impactor breakup and the retardation effects of pressure on crater formation. Information about resurfacing history and impactor flux population can only be conjectured using arrant approximations for atmospheric effects on crater size scaling, such as assuming the absence of pressure effects or using other ad hoc approximations for this dependence. The recent work by Ivanov et al.(1986; 1992); Phillips et al.(199 1; 1992); Schaber et al. (1992) and others support the notion that atmospheric effects may have strongly influenced the Venusian cratering record. The work reported here looks at the potential synergism of aerodynamic entry and the gas dynamic flow fields that govern during the time scale and in the vicinity of crater formation.

Schmidt, Robert M.↗

Assessing the future of global energy-for-water

This study incorporates the energy demands of water abstraction, treatment, distribution, and post-use (wastewater) treatment into the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated human-Earth systems model, and analyzes a range of scenarios that estimate the future evolution of this demand of energy. The study builds on prior research on the historical demands of energy-for-water, fitting these demands of energy into existing nation-level energy balances, where demands for energy-for-water have heretofore been aggregated with other energy use in the commercial and public services, industrial, agricultural, and/or electric power sectors. This development allows for improved projections of future energy demands in general, and in this study, allows for assessment of the energy implications of different scenarios of improvements in water access and water quality that are consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals. In our baseline scenario, energy-for-water approximately doubles from 2010 to 2050, and in the scenario with the greatest level of water access, standards for treatment of wastewater, and irrigation expansion, the consequent energy-for-water demands increase three-fold from 2010 to 2050. Note also that these increases do not consider future scarcity-driven increases in energy requirements per unit of water abstraction, treatment, and distribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement-informed Dynamic Aggregation of Distribution Systems

This paper proposes a measurement-informed dynamic aggregation methodology in order to create equivalent representations of distribution systems that are compatible with large-scale transmission analysis. By optimizing an equivalent feeder parameters using time-series measurements of active power, reactive power, and voltage at the Point of Interconnection (POI), the approach yields simplified yet dynamically accurate equivalents. Implemented in PSCAD with models of photovoltaic–battery systems, three-phase motors, and static loads, the method employs hybrid differential evolution and bounded least-squares optimization laying the foundation for for real-time state estimation and optimized sensor placement in distribution networks.

Ahmed, Kazi Ishrak [University of Tennessee, Knoxv↗

Dietary Sodium Effects on Bone Loss and Calcium Metabolism During Bed Rest

The acceleration of age-related bone loss is one of the most detrimental effects of space flight. The ability to understand and counteract this loss will be critical for crew health and safety during and after long-duration missions. Studies in healthy ambulatory individuals have linked high salt (sodium) diets, hypercalciuria, and increased renal stone risk. Dietary salt may modulate bone loss through changes in calcium metabolism and the calcium endocrine system. The research proposed here will determine the role of dietary salt in the loss of bone during simulated space flight. Calcium metabolism will be determined through calcium kinetics studies, endocrine and biochemical measurements; and estimates of the mass, distribution and mechanical properties of bone, in subjects fed low (100 mmol sodium/day) or high (250 mmol sodium/day) levels of dietary salt during 28 days of headdown tilt bedrest. This research addresses the role of dietary salt in the loss of bone and calcium in space flight, and integrates the changes in calcium metabolism with those occurring in other physiologic systems. These data will be critical for both countermeasure development, and in determination of nutritional requirements for extended-duration space flight. The potential countermeasures resulting from this research will reduce health risks due to acceleration of age-related osteoporosis and increased risk of renal stone formation..

Smith, Scott M.↗

Temperature-time distribution and thermal stresses on the RTG fins and shell during water cooling

Radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) packages designed for space missions generally do not require active cooling. However, the heat they generate cannot remain inside of the launch vehicle bay and requires active removal. Therefore, before the Shuttle bay door is closed, the RTG coolant tubes attached to the heat rejection fins must be filled with water, which will circulate and remove most of the heat from the cargo bay. There is concern that charging a system at initial temperature around 200 C with water at 24 C can cause unacceptable thermal stresses in the RTG shell and fins. A computer model is developed to estimate the transient temperature distribution resulting from such charging. The thermal stresses resulting from the temperature gradients do not exceed the elastic deformation limit for the material. Since the simplified mathematical model for thermal stresses tends to overestimate stresses, it is concluded that the RTG can be cooled by introducing water at 24 C to the initially hot fin coolant tubes while the RTG is in the Shuttle cargo bay.

Turner, R. H.↗

New Satellite Project Aerosol-UA: Remote Sensing of Aerosols in the Terrestrial Atmosphere

We discuss the development of the Ukrainian space project Aerosol-UA which has the following three main objectives: (1) to monitor the spatial distribution of key characteristics of terrestrial tropospheric and stratospheric aerosols; (2) to provide a comprehensive observational database enabling accurate quantitative estimates of the aerosol contribution to the energy budget of the climate system; and (3) quantify the contribution of anthropogenic aerosols to climate and ecological processes. The remote sensing concept of the project is based on precise orbital measurements of the intensity and polarization of sunlight scattered by the atmosphere and the surface with a scanning polarimeter accompanied by a wide-angle multispectral imager-polarimeter. Preparations have already been made for the development of the instrument suite for the Aerosol-UA project, in particular, of the multi-channel scanning polarimeter (ScanPol) designed for remote sensing studies of the global distribution of aerosol and cloud properties (such as particle size, morphology, and composition) in the terrestrial atmosphere by polarimetric and spectrophotometric measurements of the scattered sunlight in a wide range of wavelengths and viewing directions from which a scene location is observed. ScanPol is accompanied by multispectral wide-angle imager-polarimeter (MSIP) that serves to collect information on cloud conditions and Earths surface image. Various components of the polarimeter ScanPol have been prototyped, including the opto-mechanical and electronic assemblies and the scanning mirror controller. Preliminary synthetic data simulations for the retrieval of aerosol parameters over land surfaces have been performed using the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties (GRASP) algorithm. Methods for the validation of satellite data using ground-based observations of aerosol properties are also discussed. We assume that designing, building, and launching into orbit a multi-functional high-precision scanning polarimeter and an imager-polarimeter should make a significant contribution to the study of natural and anthropogenic aerosols and their climatic and ecological effects.

remote sensing↗

Hydrometeor Size Distribution Measurements by Imaging the Attenuation of a Laser Spot

The optical extinction of a laser due to scattering of particles is a well-known phenomenon. In a laboratory environment, this physical principle is known as the Beer-Lambert law, and is often used to measure the concentration of scattering particles in a fluid or gas. This method has been experimentally shown to be a usable means to measure the dust density from a rocket plume interaction with the lunar surface. Using the same principles and experimental arrangement, this technique can be applied to hydrometeor size distributions, and for launch-pad operations, specifically as a passive hail detection and measurement system. Calibration of a hail monitoring system is a difficult process. In the past, it has required comparison to another means of measuring hydrometeor size and density. Using a technique recently developed for estimating the density of surface dust dispersed during a rocket landing, measuring the extinction of a laser passing through hail (or dust in the rocket case) yields an estimate of the second moment of the particle cloud, and hydrometeor size distribution in the terrestrial meteorological case. With the exception of disdrometers, instruments that measure rain and hail fall make indirect measurements of the drop-size distribution. Instruments that scatter microwaves off of hydrometeors, such as the WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar 88 Doppler), vertical wind profilers, and microwave disdrometers, measure the sixth moment of the drop size distribution (DSD). By projecting a laser onto a target, changes in brightness of the laser spot against the target background during rain and hail yield a measurement of the DSD's second moment by way of the Beer-Lambert law. In order to detect the laser attenuation within the 8-bit resolution of most camera image arrays, a minimum path length is required. Depending on the intensity of the hail fall rate for moderate to heavy rainfall, a laser path length of 100 m is sufficient to measure variations in optical extinction using a digital camera. For hail fall only, the laser path may be shorter because of greater scattering due to the properties of hailstones versus raindrops. A photodetector may replace the camera in automated installations. Laser-based rain and hail measurement systems are available, but they are based on measuring the interruption of a thin laser beam, thus counting individual hydrometeors. These systems are true disdrometers since they also measure size and velocity. The method reported here is a simple method, requiring far less processing, but it is not a disdrometer.

Lane, John↗

Detection and estimation theory

Dynamic systems, and electronic theory on nonlinear intervals, and performance bounds of optimum detection for Gaussian signals

ELECTRONICS↗

Bayesian GAN-Based False Data Injection Attack Detection in Active Distribution Grids With DERs

Advancements in information and communication technologies have revolutionized monitoring and control capabilities within smart grids. However, it also brings new vulnerabilities to data acquisition systems and state estimation functions, which attackers can subtly tamper with the measurement data through compromising the communication network. Moreover, the high penetration of renewable energy sources with the inherited characteristics of uncertainty and variability further complicates the design of effective intrusion detection systems. In this paper, a Bayesian deep learning-based approach is developed to detect cyber attacks and maintain the security of smart grids. Our method specifically addresses the prevalent issue of imbalanced data in real power systems, which arises from the predominance of normal system operations over compromised or attacked states. Employing a novel Bayesian GAN-based technique, our approach successfully discriminates between secure and compromised measurement data, even in scenarios with significant data imbalance. Furthermore, the proposed method accommodates various practical application factors, ensuring accurate intrusion detection despite the presence of measurement noise. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed detection mechanism are validated by testing on IEEE 13-node and 123-node test systems. Simulation results and comparisons with literature methods demonstrate the superiority of proposed cybersecurity solutions.

Bayesian GAN↗

The origin of SNC meteorites - An alternative to Mars

The possibility that certain very young meteorites originated as impact melts on a large asteroid or asteroids is investigated. Calculations of the thermal evolution of impact melt show that the solidification time should be long enough to produce igneous or quasi-cumulate textures within rocks if the crater is large enough and if the initial clast concentration is low, at least in some portion of the melt sheet. The number of collisions within the asteroid belt which would produce craters of the requisite size is calculated. Using an estimate of the current size distribution of asteroids, it is found that over 3000 such collisions should have occurred during the lifetime of the solar system. Excavation and ejection of the solidified melt by a subsequent impact would be dynamically easy because of the low escape velocities of even the largest asteroids but improbable because of the depth that must be sampled. A second, sufficiently large impact is rare, so only the products of one such double event have been obtained up to now.

Vickery, A. M.↗

Color constancy - A method for recovering surface spectral reflectance

An algorithm has been developed for estimating the surface reflectance functions of objects in a scene with incomplete knowledge of the spectral power distribution of the ambient light. An image processing system employing this algorithm can assign colors that are constant despite changes in the lighting of the scene; this capability is essential to correct color rendering in photography, TV, and in the construction of artificial visual systems for robotics. Attention is given to the way in which constraints on lights and surfaces in the environment make color-constancy possible for a visual system, and the algorithm's implications for human color vision are discussed.

Maloney, L. T.↗

Results of an Automated GPS Tracking System in Support of Topex/Poseidon and GPSMet

A fully automated near real-time GPS tracking system has been developed around JPL's GIPSY/OASIS II software. The system produces <25 cm (3D rms) GPS orbits and one-half nanosecond (15 cm) clock estimates. The process starts automatically when a favorable global distribution of ground data from the IGS network (International GPS Service for Geodynamics) becomes available. Ionospherically corrected phase and pseudorange data are optimally combined to remove satellite and ground receiver clock errors, including selective availability. After the GPS orbits are determined within the data arc, they are then propagated with empirically determined dynamic force models. Real-time <2 meter (3D rms) GPS orbits are always available. As a by-product of this process, other calibration estimates such as station clocks, troposphere estimates, and Earth orientation parameters are also produced. For daily arc fits, the process requires 7-8 hours of CPU time on an HP9000/735 workstation.

GPS↗

Deriving Severe Hail Likelihood from Satellite Observations and Model Reanalysis Parameters using a Deep Neural Network

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series, have been observing severe convection at 15–60-minute intervals for over 40 years. When properly assessed, such a data record can be valuable in efforts of estimating severe storm risk throughout the diurnal cycle based on automated detection of patterns consistently found atop severe storms. Furthermore, environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are well-known and are thought to be represented well by modern reanalysis products. Promoting resilience against such hazards on local and global scales is a chief goal the NASA Disasters program, which seeks to encourage use of satellite observations to mitigate risk. For instance, hail is the costliest severe weather hazard across the globe in terms of insured loss, but reporting inconsistencies for hail events globally make it difficult to develop models that can quantify the risk. Satellite observation and model reanalysis taken together have the potential to, with reasonable skill and specificity, characterize environmental conditions that are favorable for hazardous weather, and thereby enable creation of hazard climatologie. Such climatologies are particularly useful over regions without extensive radar networks or storm reporting. By mapping the multivariate combination of observed cloud features and reanalysis environmental parameters/indices to United States Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radar-estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) by way of a deep neural network (DNN), estimates of likelihood for potentially severe hail can be produced. Such estimates are of greater complexity and efficiency than could be performed with previous multivariate or logistic regression analyses for observed points within convective systems. Statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis are shown to highlight non-severe/severe class separation for well-known hailstorm predictors, e.g., overshooting cloud top characteristics, deep-layer wind shear, mid-level stability, helicity, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN, which can efficiently produce a quantitative hail risk metric with better than 70% detection rate and under 30% false alarms. These hail classifications can then be aggregated across the satellite record to yield a hazard climatology for hail frequency and severity – knowledge of which is of particular interest to those who manage risk (e.g., insurers) and are seeking opportunities to identify hail-prone regions, particularly in developing nations. This NASA study uses satellite observations and model parameters in a DNN to perform climatological hailstorm analysis in support of catastrophe model development, with the hope of promoting risk resilience particularly in regions without adequate weather radar coverage.

Passive Remote Sensing↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

Current Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities are not generating data fast enough to provide statistically-supportable precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates for future missions. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches – namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities – will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of operations on board the International Space Station (ISS), a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass for future missions. A Bayesian failure rate estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can help reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior failure rate estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, these subjective (and often inaccurate) prior estimates currently have a strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Supportability↗

Viability of Reclaiming Municipal Wastewater for Potential Microalgae-Based Biofuel Production in the U.S.

Reclaimed municipal wastewater is a crucial component in biofuel production, especially in regions experiencing increasing freshwater scarcity. However, accurately estimating the potential for fuel production is challenging because of the uneven distribution of biofuel feedstock regions and wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). This study assesses the viability of using reclaimed municipal water for algal biomass production in pond systems co-located with WWTPs under scenarios driven by biomass production and based on water transport logistics. We performed state- and county-level analysis of reclaimed water resources throughout the United States based on WWTP facility data. We overlaid these data onto estimated algae facility sites and examined the temporal resource availability to address seasonal variations in cultivation demand. Our findings reveal that 2694 billion liters per year of reclaimed water could potentially be used to produce 42.2 million metric tons (ash-free dry weight) of algal biomass, equivalent to 29.2 billion liters of renewable diesel equivalent (RDe). The use of reclaimed water would double current national water reuse and expand such reuse significantly in 455 counties across the United States. However, when we limit the construction of algae facilities to counties that can fully meet their water demand in order to minimize water transport burdens, the available supply decreases by 80%, to 512 billion liters, resulting in annual production of 12.2 billion liters of RDe, which still doubles current biodiesel production. Our analysis highlights the degree to which the location and flow of WWTPs and water transport affect the deployment of algae biofuel facilities and tradeoffs. These findings underscore the importance of improving the current WWTP infrastructure for reclaimed water reuse, especially in southern states.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Computational Analysis of the X-57 Maxwell Airplane at Unpowered Conditions (Preliminary Fuselage)

The X-57 Maxwell is an all-electric airplane that implements a distributed electric propulsion system to demonstrate that high-efficiency electric propulsion can be integrated with aerodynamics to increase the performance of an airplane. To this end, distributed electric fans were installed on the wing to provide increased flow over the wing at the low takeoff and landing speeds of the X-57. The low-speed lift augmentation allows for a reduction in wing area for cruise optimization. The X-57 wing area was reduced to 42 percent of the wing area of the baseline aircraft, a Tecnam P2006T. With this reduced wing area and the electric propulsion system, it is estimated that the X-57 will cruise on less than one-third the total energy compared to the baseline aircraft. To meet the cruise performance goal at a Mach number of 0.233 at an altitude of 8000 feet, the X-57 has a cruise lift coefficient of 0.7516 and needs to have a cruise drag coefficient of 0.05423 or less. The USM3D computational solver was used to investigate the X-57 performance, without the distributed electric propulsion high-lift system operating. The unpowered X-57 performance is of interest to quantify if the X-57 can meet the cruise drag performance goal, and to document the lift performance of the very small wing at takeoff and landing conditions. The primary configurations investigated in this paper include the cruise configuration with no flap deflection, a takeoff configuration with a 10◦ flap deflection, and a landing configuration with a 30◦ flap deflection. The conditions for the cruise configuration were a flight unit Reynolds number of 1.32E+06 per foot, an altitude of 8000 feet, a Mach number of 0.233, and angles of attack from −2° to 24° . At the cruise lift coefficient of 0.7516, the computed drag coefficient is 0.05275. This computed drag is less than the drag coefficient of 0.05423 that is required to meet the X-57 airplane performance goal. However, the computational airplane is a completely smooth geometry and does not account for protuberance drag, nor the drag from steps and gaps in the actual X-57 airplane. Therefore, based upon the CFD drag calculation there is a 10-percent margin to account for some of the differences between the as-built metal fuselage and empennage construction, and the smooth computational geometry. The computed cruise drag also does not account for an induced drag reduction due to the wing-tip propellers and a drag reduction due to laminar flow achieved on the wing. The computed lift to drag ratio is 14.14 at the cruise lift coefficient of 0.7516, and the maximum computed lift to drag ratio is 15.8. The maximum lift coefficient for the cruise configuration was 2.13 at an angle of attack of 15°. The conditions for the takeoff configuration with a 10° flap deflection were a flight unit Reynolds number of 0.986E+06 per foot, an altitude of 2500 feet, a Mach number of 0.149, and angles of attack from −2° to 22°. The maximum lift coefficient for the takeoff configuration was 2.21 at an angle of attack of 16°. The conditions for the landing configuration with a 30° flap deflection were a flight unit Reynolds number of 0.922E+06 per foot, an altitude of 2500 feet, a Mach number of 0.139, and angles of attack from −2° to 24°. The maximum lift coefficient for the landing configuration was 2.58 and occurred at two angles of attack, 10° and 14°. Based on the unpowered maximum lift coefficient of 2.58 for the 30° flap deflection, along with computations of the distributed electric propulsion lift augmentation (not shown in this paper), the X-57 Maxwell is estimated to meet its powered landing goal of a maximum lift coefficient of 4.0.

X-57 Maxwell Airplane↗