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Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Thermoplastic Matrix Composite Design for Cryotanks Using Multiscale Modeling and Bayesian Optimization

Designing lightweight, robust cryogenic storage tanks is critical for future launch vehicles, in-space propellant storage, and hydrogen powered aircraft. This work presents a multiscale modeling and Bayesian optimization framework for the design of thermoplastic matrix composite cryotanks. Molecular dynamics simulations are first used to determine temperature-dependent constituent properties for candidate thermoplastic matrices, which are homogenized to the lamina scale using NASA’s Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT). These lamina properties, in combination with laminate family generation rules, are evaluated in HyperX structural optimization software to identify stacking sequences that meet all cryogenic load requirements. A Bayesian optimization framework is applied, with HyperX in the loop (via the HyperX API) to efficiently search across material and laminate design variables, yielding an optimized cryotank configuration with significant reductions in design cycle time compared to exhaustive search approaches.

thermoplastics

Electron Inversion and Tunneling at Silicon Thermal Oxide Interfaces for Solar-Driven Molecular Catalysis to Syngas

Semiconductor photoelectrodes are regularly coupled to solid-state heterogeneous catalysts to perform solar-driven reduction of CO 2 . Less frequently, molecular catalysts are employed to better control the reactivity toward desired products, yet the development of robust semiconductor/molecule interfaces has proven challenging. Here, we demonstrate that a 2–3 nm thermal oxide layer on Si exhibits stability in aqueous solution, high photovoltage, and a photocurrent density of ∼10 mA/cm 2 for the solar-driven photoelectrochemical reduction of a homogeneous molecular catalyst, producing syngas with an ∼2:1 H 2 to CO ratio. Because of a low defect density, the oxide interface forms an electron inversion layer with metal-like electron density at cathodic potentials. This inversion layer facilitates electron transfer to redox-active molecules via tunneling even if the molecule’s reduction potential is beyond the semiconductor’s conduction band edge. Using an electrolyte solution composed of a homogeneous cobalt bis(terpyridine) catalyst in a water/organic solvent mixture, stable photoelectrochemistry was observed under 1-sun illumination, exhibiting an ∼30% Faradaic efficiency for CO that was similar to a glassy carbon electrode under comparable conditions. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that an ultrathin thermal oxide interface is a robust platform for development of aqueous-stable, molecule-driven photoelectrocatalysis.

Catalysts

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 33, No. 1, January-March 1992]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 Technical Note: A New Approach to Fission Reactor Safety, Yu. V. Petrov; 5 Erratum; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 6 Analysis and Modeling of Fission Product Release from Various Uranium-Aluminum Plate-Type Reactor Fuels, R. P. Taleyarkhan; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 23 Applications of a Surveillance and Diagnostics Methodology Using Neutron Noise From a Pressurized-Water Reactor, R. T. Wood, L. F. Miller, and R. B. Perez; DESIGN FEATURES: 36 Westinghouse Advanced Passive 600 Plant, B. A. McIntyre and R. K. Beck; 47 System 80+™ PWR Safety Design, C. W. Bagnal, R. A. Matzie, and R. S. Turk; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 58 The MATS Experiments—Mesoscale Atmospheric Transport Studies at the Savannah River Site, A. H. Weber, S. Berman, R. J. Kurzeja, and R. P. Addis; 75 Book Review: Environmental Radioactivity in the European Community 1984-1985-1986, C. A. Little; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 76 Activities Related to Waste and Spent Fuel Management, M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 87 Aging Assessment of BWR Control Rod Drive Systems, R. H. Greene; 100 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; 103 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; 110 Operating U.S. Power Reactors, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 129 General Administrative Activities, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; 139 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 143 Proposed Rule Changes as of Sept. 30 1991; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 128 Harvard School of Public Health Announces Short Courses; 128 16th Biennial ANS Topical Meeting on Reactor Operating Experience: Present and Future Technologies—Applying Lessons Learned (Call for Papers); 147 The Authors; 150 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 32; 154 Errata.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 33, No. 1, January-March 1992]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 Technical Note: A New Approach to Fission Reactor Safety, Yu. V. Petrov; 5 Erratum; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 6 Analysis and Modeling of Fission Product Release from Various Uranium-Aluminum Plate-Type Reactor Fuels, R. P. Taleyarkhan; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 23 Applications of a Surveillance and Diagnostics Methodology Using Neutron Noise From a Pressurized-Water Reactor, R. T. Wood, L. F. Miller, and R. B. Perez; DESIGN FEATURES: 36 Westinghouse Advanced Passive 600 Plant, B. A. McIntyre and R. K. Beck; 47 System 80+™ PWR Safety Design, C. W. Bagnal, R. A. Matzie, and R. S. Turk; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 58 The MATS Experiments—Mesoscale Atmospheric Transport Studies at the Savannah River Site, A. H. Weber, S. Berman, R. J. Kurzeja, and R. P. Addis; 75 Book Review: Environmental Radioactivity in the European Community 1984-1985-1986, C. A. Little; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 76 Activities Related to Waste and Spent Fuel Management, M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 87 Aging Assessment of BWR Control Rod Drive Systems, R. H. Greene; 100 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; 103 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; 110 Operating U.S. Power Reactors, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 129 General Administrative Activities, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; 139 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 143 Proposed Rule Changes as of Sept. 30 1991; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 128 Harvard School of Public Health Announces Short Courses; 128 16th Biennial ANS Topical Meeting on Reactor Operating Experience: Present and Future Technologies—Applying Lessons Learned (Call for Papers); 147 The Authors; 150 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 32; 154 Errata.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

AT2025ulz and S250818k: Leveraging DESI Spectroscopy in the Hunt for a Kilonova Associated with a Subsolar-mass Gravitational-wave Candidate

On 2025 August 18, the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA collaboration reported a subthreshold gravitational-wave candidate detection consistent with a subsolar-mass neutron star merger, denoted S250818k. An optical transient, AT2025ulz, was discovered within the localization region. AT2025ulz initially appeared to meet the expected behavior of kilonova emission, the telltale signature of a binary neutron star merger. The transient subsequently rebrightened after ∼5 days and was classified as a Type IIb supernova. In this work, we analyze the observations of its host galaxy obtained by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). From the DESI spectrum, we obtain a secure redshift of z = 0.084840 ± 0.000006. If S250818k has an astrophysical origin, this places the transient within 2σ of the gravitational-wave distance and results in an integral overlap between the gravitational-wave alert and the transient location of log 10 $\mathcal{I} ≈ 3.9 - 4.2$. Our analysis of the host galaxy’s spectral energy distribution reveals a star-forming, dusty galaxy with stellar mass ∼10 10 M ⊙ , broadly consistent with the population of both short gamma-ray bursts and core-collapse supernova host galaxies. We also present our follow-up of DESI-selected candidate host galaxies using the Fraunhofer Telescope at the Wendelstein Observatory, and show the promise of DESI for associating or rejecting candidate electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational-wave alerts. These results emphasize the value of DESI’s extensive spectroscopic dataset in rapidly characterizing host galaxies, enabling spectroscopic host subtraction, and guiding targeted follow-up.

Hall, Xander J. [Carnegie Mellon University, Pitts

Multiscale Modeling of Fracture Strength in Fibrous Thermal Protection System Materials

This work presents a multiscale modeling approach to predict the fracture strength of fibrous Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials. The model assumes that system failure is initiated at the joints between individual fibers. We investigated three distinct TPS compositions: amorphous silica, alumina and aluminosilicate fibers. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were employed to determine the fracture strength values of these fiber joints for both material systems. These fracture strength values were then integrated into simulations of 3D randomly populated fiber structures, where tensile load transfer occurs through the fiber joints. These microscale properties are upscaled through a renormalization approach [1] to predict macroscale tensile strength of 3D random fiber networks, accounting for joint-dominated failure and effective load-bearing area. The study concludes by demonstrating the resulting strength variation as a function of material composition, fiber density, and morphology. We also show validation of results by comparing them against explicit fiber finite element (FE) modeling [2] where fiber joint fracture is represented by cohesive elements.

Jaehyun Cho

Deep RL for Fast Long-Horizon Operations Scheduling on NASA's Carruthers Geocorona Observatory Mission

Spacecraft operations scheduling is a highly constrained, long-horizon combinatorial optimization problem that traditionally relies on heuristics, constraint programming, or manual planning. We present a scalable deep reinforcement learning framework developed and deployed for NASA’s Carruthers Geocorona Observatory mission. Our framework introduces a macro-action abstraction known as activity blocks coupled with dynamic action-masking to navigate the intractably large search space and strictly enforce complex power, thermal, and instrument constraints. The resulting architecture generates globally feasible schedules with overwhelming probability, establishes operational trust, and executes a full training cycle in under six hours, circumventing the need for policy robustness by enabling rapid, on-demand retraining. Further, resulting schedules outperform baseline heuristics in scheduled science quality. The deep reinforcement learning framework was deployed as the default operational scheduler for the Carruthers Geocorona Observatory mission from the outset of the mission, demonstrating that deep reinforcement learning can be trusted for real spacecraft operations under complex, evolving constraints.

Geocorona

BLEECAM™ (Benchmarking Life Cycle Environmental, Economic, and Social Metrics for Critical and Advanced Minerals and Materials) [SWR-25-125]

The National Laboratory of the Rockies' (NLR) Benchmarking Life Cycle Environmental, Economic, and Social Metrics for Critical and Advanced Minerals and Materials (BLEECAM™) is an open-source, integrated decision-support tool for evaluating the impacts, risks, and trade-offs across U.S. and global materials supply chains. Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, BLEECAM supports supply chain and market analysis. The tool integrates multi-objective supply chain optimization, system dynamics, network design, lifecycle assessment, techno-economic modeling, and social impact assessment methods to evaluate how supply chains evolve over time, geography, and deployment scenarios. BLEECAM also supports analysis related to energy infrastructure, data centers and digital infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, and other sectors that depend on critical materials.

Khalifa, SherifA. [National Laboratory of the Rock

A Missed Thrust Framework for Low-Thrust Spiral Trajectories to the NRHO

A framework is developed by which end-to-end optimization of many-revolution low-thrust spiral trajectories can be completed in the presence of missed thrust events. This framework is applied to the Lunar Transit trajectory by which the initial capability of NASA’s Gateway lunar space station will be delivered to a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit. This low-thrust mission consists of three subphases, each designed according to the specific objectives and dynamical regimes encountered as the mission progresses from a medium Earth insertion orbit to cislunar space. The presented framework accounts for the unique considerations demanded by each mission phase and incorporates appropriate capabilities into a novel mission analysis tool. This methodology enables large scale and reliable analyses of missed thrust events across the end-to-end Lunar Transit to verify the robustness of flight trajectories across the full range of considered launch dates.

missed thrust

Diffusion Quantum Monte Carlo Calculation of the Austenite and Martensite Phases of NiTi

NiTi is a promising material for smart and active technologies due to its exhibition of the shape memory effect, superelasticity, and biocompatibility. The shape memory effect is tied to the reversible transition between the austenite and martensite phases. A major research direction is to alloy NiTi with Zr, Hf, Pd, Pt, etc., in order to tune the martensitic transition temperature (MTT). Modeling the MTT from first principles is challenging because the lattice dynamics is complicated by anharmonicity and various low-energy structures. Using density functional theory, the energy difference between the austenite and martensite phases of NiTi varies by up to 100 meV/atom depending on the choice of density functional, which is of the same order of the energy difference itself. Consequently, free energy calculations with different functionals can result in estimates of the MTT that vary by several hundred K. Using diffusion quantum Monte Carlo, we calculated the energy difference between the B2 and B19' structures of NiTi to be 70.9 +- 2.5 meV/atom.

Kevin K Ly

Contaminant characterization of five satellite materials

An extensive laboratory test program was performed to characterize outgassing of five satellite materials. The materials were Chemglaze Z-306 over 9922 primer, M-773 adhesive, multilayer insulation, polyurethane foam, and silverized Teflon. The souces were prepared to the specifications of a typical satellite program. Dynamic thermogravimetric mass loss characteristics of these five materials were obtained in vacuum with a beam microbalance. The temperature of the material was linearly raised from 25 C to over 650 C while monitoring the mass loss, rate of mass loss, temperature, and the composition of the outgassed material by residual gas analysis. Isothermal source emission/capture coefficients/reemission parameters were obtained with an array of quartz crystal microbalances (QCM). A detailed test matrix in which the temperatures of the QCMs (-160 C, - 100 C, -40 C, and +10 C) and the source material (125 C, and 90 C, and 50 C) were varied was performed. The array of QCMs was also used to measure the spatial distribution of the source emission. The effects of vacuum ultraviolet radiation on the deposition and reemission parameters was determined.

J A Muscari

Evaluation of Particle Degradation of a Ytterbium Disilicate Gas Turbine Coating in a Combustion Environment

Ytterbium disilicate (Yb2Si2O7) is a state-of-the-art topcoat material used in environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) to protect SiC-SiC composites from water vapor corrosion in gas turbine engines. However, it’s degradation by thermochemical and thermomechanical particle interactions may limit its use in next generation engine systems. Several static furnace tests have been performed on Yb2Si2O7 to elucidate methods of degradation, although dynamic testing in an engine-relevant environment has not been carried out. Ultimately, testing and evaluation of materials that incorporates all environmental damage modes will allow for an accurate assessment of long-term durability and operating lifetime. This work details the investigation of particle-induced erosion and corrosion of Yb2Si2O7 in NASA Glenn’s Erosion Burner Rig Facility. Coating durability was investigated as a function of test temperature, particle size, and deposition rate. Thermal cycling was also incorporated into testing to determine the interplay of heating/cooling cycles with particle degradation. Overall, these analyses will be used to determine coating robustness in an engine relevant environment.

Jamesa L Stokes

Evaluation of Particle Degradation of a Ytterbium Disilicate Gas Turbine Coating in a Combustion Environment

Ytterbium disilicate (Yb2Si2O7) is a state-of-the-art topcoat material used in environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) to protect SiC-SiC composites from water vapor corrosion in gas turbine engines. However, it’s degradation by thermochemical and thermomechanical particle interactions may limit its use in next generation engine systems. Several static furnace tests have been performed on Yb2Si2O7 to elucidate methods of degradation, although dynamic testing in an engine-relevant environment has not been carried out. Ultimately, testing and evaluation of materials that incorporates all environmental damage modes will allow for an accurate assessment of long-term durability and operating lifetime. This work details the investigation of particle-induced erosion and corrosion of Yb2Si2O7 in NASA Glenn’s Erosion Burner Rig Facility. Coating durability was investigated as a function of test temperature, particle size, and deposition rate. Thermal cycling was also incorporated into testing to determine the interplay of heating/cooling cycles with particle degradation. Overall, these analyses will be used to determine coating robustness in an engine relevant environment.

Jamesa L Stokes

Effects of Adverse Weather on Aerodynamics [Les Effets des Conditions Météorologiques Adverses sur I'Aérodynamique]

The 19 technical papers developed for the AGARD Fluid Dynamics Panel (FDP) Specialists' Meeting on "Effects of Adverse Weather on Aerodynamics" held from 28th April—i May 1991 in Toulouse, France are documented in this Conference Proceedings. In addition, introductory material from the Program Chairman and the results of the Round Table Discussion held after the meeting are also included. The FDP organized this meeting to provide a timely review of the progress being made in advancing the state-of-the-art of predicting, simulating, and measuring the effects of icing, anti-icing fluids, and various forms of precipitation on the aerodynamic characteristics of flight vehicles. Topics included results from both theoretical and experimental programs and material related to procedures and regulations for certification and operation. International participation for the meeting included authors from eight nations and representatives from most of the 16 NATO nations.

Precipitation - meteorology

Entanglement properties of SU(2) gauge theory

Understanding how isolated quantum systems thermalize is central to both fundamental physics and the development of quantum technologies. In this Perspective, we present recent and new results on thermalization in nonabelian gauge theory from exact real-time simulations of two-dimensional lattice models. We discuss tests of the eigenstate thermalization hypothesis, entanglement entropy dynamics, the absence of persistent non-thermal states, spectral signatures, and measures of quantum complexity. Our new results include a two-step thermalization process in localized regions and the role of higher gauge field representations. These findings suggest that thermalization in gauge theories may offer a test case for quantum advantage.

information theory and computation

Investigation of Lunar-Inspired Geopolymer Concrete Formulations Mixed and Cured in Microgravity on the International Space Station (ISS)

The research outlined in this presentation investigates the use of various lunar regolith simulants in geopolymer lunar concrete mixes mixed and cured on the International Space Station (ISS). The motivation for this work is to study the effects of gravity on the microstructure of alkali-activated materials cured with heat, and to develop materials for the construction of long-term infrastructure on the lunar surface with in-situ resource utilization (ISRU). ISRU for construction materials reduces the cost and mass of payloads related to lunar construction. The advantage of geopolymer concrete as opposed to traditional portland cement concrete is that water acts as a medium for the polymerization reaction and leaves the system throughout the process, reducing its demand. Twelve samples of lunar regolith simulant and a solution composed of sodium hydroxide and sodium silicate were sent to the ISS. The three simulants were OPRH2N, OPRL2N, and JSC-1AF, using only particles less than 53 µm in diameter to increase reactivity of the simulant. Simulant to solution ratios were determined by workability while mixing. The simulant and solution were sealed Burst Pouches® along with 2 other sealed bags to prevent material from leaking. Crew member F-14 conducted testing on the ISS by introducing the solution to the simulant in the Burst Pouch®, mixing the sample with a spatula, and then clamping the specimen in the fresh state to prevent flow inside the Burst Pouch®. These specimens were then put in a thermos heated to 80C via sealed drinking water bags to cure for 24 hours with a temperature logger. The cured specimens remained in microgravity for at least 28 days and were returned from the ISS in February 2025. The specimens were then brought to the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to analyze. Material characterization consisted of conducting Micro-CT tests of entire samples in their sealed apparatus to a resolution of 25µm. 2D image slices were saved in each orthogonal direction of each specimen at a 0.03 mm step size from the 3D model to conduct analytical porosity calculations. Representative samples from each specimen were sampled to perform helium gas pycnometery and were then mounted in resin for SEM imaging, EDS, and nanoindentation. Porosity was analyzed analytically using micromechanics modelling with the assistance of the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT), as well as the NASA Advanced Supercomputing (NAS) servers (V. Saseendran & N. Yamamoto, 2024). Density was measured using helium gas pycnometery and was then compared to the theoretical density for experimental porosity calculation. Due to the samples’ non-uniform shape being cured in a pouch, traditional compression and tensile strength testing could not be performed. Nanoindentation was conducted at Clarkson University to determine the microhardness and reduced modulus of elasticity. Results from flight samples can be compared to ground samples currently in DLR’s possession to determine the effect on microstructure from being mixed and cured in microgravity. This study gives further insight and understanding of geopolymer lunar concrete and its viability as a lunar construction material with ISRU.

Adam Johnson

Laser Beam Welding Benchmark Experiments Performed in Reduced Gravity and Vacuum

Laser beam welding (LBW) is affected by the extreme temperatures, reduced pressure, and reduced gravity present in space environments. Gravity and pressure especially influence its melt pool and solidification dynamics. A compact, modular vacuum chamber adaptable to flight platforms from parabolic to orbital currently hosts an experiment to investigate the combined influence of reduced gravity and pressure on LBW. A swappable cartridge contains a rotating platen on which customizable workpieces can be welded under vacuum, greatly increasing experimental throughput. Instrumentation includes weld and thermal cameras observing the process, thermocouples placed on workpieces, accelerometers, and vacuum sensors. Experimental data gathered during the welding process will be combined with post-flight nondestructive evaluation, metallography, and mechanical testing to provide validation datasets for computational modeling. Phase I of this effort involves a parabolic flight campaign in low gravity while an anticipated Phase II would proceed to in-space demonstration to access extended duration microgravity.

in-space welding