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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Model-Free Probabilistic Forecasting of Nodal Voltages in Distribution Systems

As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems increases, so does the interest in forecasting relevant system variables to help mitigate the associated challenges. One such challenge is the more frequent occurrence of excessive voltages in distribution systems with higher shares of DERs. Accurate and reliable estimates together with forecasts of system states (i.e., nodal voltages) will therefore play a key role in improving the utilization of these variable and uncertain sources while mitigating potential operational risks. Whilst recent literature has explored machine learning (ML) methods for voltage estimation and their extrapolation for a short-time period into the future, few have taken uncertainty quantification into account, and these methods have not yet been translated into operations. This paper discusses the advantages offered by probabilistic voltage forecasts and proposes a non-parametric Bayesian method suitable for forecasting nodal voltages at short-term time horizons while accounting for uncertainties in load and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. We demonstrate the value of the proposed Gaussian process (GP) model for a case study using historical forecasts and observation data.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast and Accurate Frequency Response Estimation for Large Power System Disturbances Using Second Derivative of Frequency Data

Accurate Frequency Response Estimation (FRE) is critical to reliability risk management of large power system disturbances. This letter proposes a measurement-driven approach for FRE by calculating the second derivative of frequency from synchrophasor data. Compared with conventional methods, the proposed method has major advantages of low computational burden and high accuracy, which makes it appropriate for real-time FRE in bulk power systems. The effectiveness of this method is validated with actual synchrophasor data on 96 confirmed historical power system disturbances in the U.S. eastern interconnection.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generator Frequency Response Droop Monitoring Tool

Monitoring and analyzing the frequency response performance of power generation units is essential for maintaining reliable and secure power system operation. To address this need, an automation tool has been developed to provide a pipeline for processing historical power plant generation data, including large-scale SCADA archives. The tool performs end-to-end processing, including event detection, frequency response (FR) analysis in accordance with NERC standards, and estimation of speed governor droop characteristics. The tool is designed with a modular architecture, allowing individual components of the workflow to be extended, customized, or deployed independently. In addition, the tool provides an API that enables seamless integration with other production systems and operational analytics platforms.

Etingov, PavelV [Pacific Northwest National Labora↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disaggregating Future Retail Electricity Rate Growth [Slides]

Recent Berkeley Lab research found that modest retail rate increases over the past 10 years were mostly driven by large increases in capital expenditures (CapEx) that were offset in part by substantial wholesale price reductions. Decision-makers are increasingly concerned about the potential future rate impacts of a number of policies and industry trends that support rapid decarbonization, electrification, and grid modernization. Using historical FERC Form 1 data and the existing literature on policies and industry trends that are likely to affect utility-incurred costs and retail sales, Berkeley Lab researchers developed ranges of forecasted growth rates for cost-related rate drivers (i.e., fuel and purchased power; transmission, distribution, generation, and other categories of both non-fuel operations & maintenance and CapEx) and non-cost related rate drivers (i.e., retail sales, peak demand, and customers). These were then used as inputs to a pro-forma utility financial model (FINDER) that estimated the growth in retail electric rates between 2020 and 2030 for a prototypical vertically-integrated investor-owned utility in the United States. The analysis produced the following results: 1. Assuming average growth rates in all rate drivers, future retail rate growth is driven by sizable increases in all CapEx costs, where fuel and purchased power costs are replaced by generation CapEx as the largest rate component between 2020 and 2030. 2. Growth in sales/peak demand/customers, generation CapEx costs, and fuel and purchased power (FPP) costs, in isolation, produce the most uncertainty in rate growth. Specifically, a 1% increase in the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of retail sales, coincident peak demand (CP), and customers (Sales-CP-Cust) results in a 0.88-0.93% decrease in the CAGR of rates, in isolation. However, a 1% increase in the CAGR of generation CapEx budgets results in a 0.07-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, while a 1% increase in the CAGR of FPP costs causes a 0.10-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, all else being equal. 3. Taking into account the correlation and variability of the growth in all rate drivers jointly, generation CapEx is expected to be both the largest and most uncertain rate component by 2030 (20-25% share of the retail rate). Transmission and distribution CapEx, along with fuel and purchased power costs are each expected to comprise between 12% and 17% of retail rates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microstructural-Level Fuel Performance Modeling of U-Mo Monolithic Fuel

As the physics that governs the microstructural evolution of nuclear fuel span various time and spatial scales, to fully understand the fuel behavior inevitably involves atomic to mesoscale resolution that can be difficult to determine experimentally. Microstructural-level modeling and simulations can be used to develop physics-based materials models that can provide physical understanding to inform fabrication process control, as well as a valuable feedback mechanism between post-irradiation examination (PIE) results and fabrication parameters. In accordance with the program schedule, the primary goals of the microstructure modeling effort are to: 1. Address critical microstructural questions and provide practical guidance to the fabricator via the fuel product specification; 2. Provide mechanistic inputs for the existing fuel performance code to improve its descriptive and predictive capability at the macroscopic scale. In fiscal year (FY)-21, the work scope consisted of six main facets: (1) the effect of carbides on fuel performance; (2) gas diffusivity in different phases; (3) integration of microstructural fuel performance modeling; (4) property degradation; (5) irradiation creep; and (6) historical analysis of microstructure data. Brief summaries of each are included below.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards Development of a Conceptual Model for Mercury in Bear Creek, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (FY23 Update)

Mercury concentrations in fish in Bear Creek are elevated and comparable to concentrations seen in fish in East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) on the Oak Ridge Reservation, even though aqueous inorganic mercury concentrations are orders of magnitude lower in Bear Creek than in EFPC. Acknowledging that the relationship between aqueous and fish tissue mercury concentrations is not linear, and that methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations are likely more related to fish tissue concentrations than aqueous total mercury (Hg T ) concentrations, MeHg production is not easily predicted or controlled. In Bear Creek, where aqueous Hg T concentrations are low, factors other than mercury loading drive the transformation of mercury to MeHg and subsequent trophic transfer to fish. Initial development of a waste disposal facility (Environmental Management Disposal Facility; EMDF) in Bear Creek Valley has begun, and operation of the EMDF has the potential to increase mercury inputs to Bear Creek. Consequently, understanding the factors contributing to elevated MeHg concentrations in water and fish in Bear Creek has increased relevance and importance. This report summarizes data from recent and historical compliance and investigatory studies with an eye toward building a conceptual model to understand the processes affecting mercury transport and transformation in the Bear Creek watershed, as well as to highlight key knowledge gaps in our understanding of these processes that warrant further investigation. The conceptual model will provide a strong technical basis for prioritizing and optimizing potential mitigation actions or best management practices to minimize potential negative effects of the EMDF related to mercury in Bear Creek.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task E Final Report

This is the Task E final report for DECOVALEX-2023. Task E is focused on understanding thermal, two-phase hydrological, and mechanical (TH2M) processes, especially related to predicting brine migration in the excavation damaged zone around a heated excavation in salt. Salt is attractive as a disposal medium for radioactive waste because it is self-healing and is essentially impermeable and essentially non-porous in the far field (away from excavations). Investigation of the short-term (days to years) near-field (centimeters to tens of meters) behavior of salt is important for radioactive waste disposal because this early period strongly controls the amount of brine in a salt repository. Brine leads to corrosion of waste forms and waste packages, and possible dissolution of radionuclides with brine transport being a potential transport vector to the accessible environment. The main test case used in Task E is the ongoing Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) heater test located underground at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico, USA. The Task was divided into a series of Steps. Step 0 was an introduction to processes in salt, that included matching historical unheated brine inflow data from boreholes at WIPP and matching temperature observations during BATS heater test 1a. Step 1 included validation of models against a thermo-poroelastic analytical solution relevant to heated boreholes in salt, and two-phase flow around an excavation in salt. Step 2 required all the individual components covered in steps 0 and 1 to come together to match observed brine inflow behavior during the BATS 1a heater test. There were a range of approaches from the teams, from mechanistic to prescriptive. Given the uncertainties in the problem, some teams used one- or two-dimensional models of the processes, while other teams included more geometrical complexity in three-dimensional models. The key learning points from Task E have been: • Heat conduction through salt typically requires non-linear thermal conductivity (as a function of temperature), but most models do a good job matching observations, given appropriate adjustments to the applied power and some thermocouple locations. • Thermal pressurization requires coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) responses that consider the thermal expansion of the fluid and solid phases. • Initialization of two-phase flow models around a borehole or excavation in salt are more realistically represented as “wetting up”, rather than “drying down” (i.e., the initial state after excavation is mostly dry, rather than mostly wet). • The BATS 1a heater test includes a significant release of brine after the end of heating, which requires a large increase in permeability to recreate. Task E has been a great learning experience for all the teams involved, and feedback from the modeling teams has led to changes in the design of follow-on BATS experiments, which are now ongoing underground at WIPP. There was a balance throughout the task between freedom to model phenomena how each team saw fit, and prescriptiveness in problem design to bring the modeling teams closer together to allow attribution of smaller differences between models to different modeling choices. The modeling approaches seem to go through two phases: an early phase of discovery or testing, and a later phase of refinement and improvement. In future modeling efforts, different field data could be used (e.g., BATS 2) and more time should be included in the processes for teams to make multiple model refinement or even significant changes to their conceptual model or setup, based on lessons learned from the modeling exercise.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of NuScale SMR Steam Heat Augmentation for Chemical Plant Decarbonization

Nearly 50% of the total energy consumed by the industrial sector in the United States is used to produce process steam with natural gas and coal-fired boilers1 . This project conducts a technoeconomic assessment of a NuScale Small Modular Reactor (SMR) coupled with a chemical plant as an Integrated Energy System (IES) where nuclear produces steam and electric power to meet the requirements of a large chemical plant. In a 2020 study, ORNL evaluated the feasibility of using advanced SMRs, including the NuScale design, to supply energy to the Eastman Chemical Plant. However, since that report was published, NuScale received NRC approval for its uprated 77 MWe design with 56% more power and has also introduced a high-temperature, high pressure, steam heat-augmentation system, a key focus of the new study. The new study also benefits from revised capital costs, a 10-day refueling outage time, reduced plant staffing, higher capacity factors, and a site boundary Emergency Planning Zone methodology. The study consists of a techno-economic assessment of two possible energy sources (nuclear and natural gas) in a number of steam and power generation configurations (NuScale Power Modules (NPMs), boilers and combinations of both) to satisfy the steam and power demand with the most reliable and cost competitive system. A total of 2,947.3 klb/hr of steam and 72.5 MWe of electricity are required for the demonstration case. A range of scenarios and solutions are explored, from a 12-NPM plant (3,000 MWth)—with excess capacity and redundancy, capable of supplying a significant amount of extra power to the grid—to a 4-NPM (1,000 MWth) plant—supplemented with existing boilers or grid power for redundancy. The study uses historical steam and power data from a chemical plant and examines the sensitivity to natural gas and grid power cost variations. Scenarios with up to two times gas and electricity costs were considered. Profitability in a 60-year time horizon was analyzed, consistent with NuScale’s design life specification. A steady-state site integration and reliability analysis was performed, and trade-offs were identified.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hanford Site Rare Plant Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2022

Rare plants are monitored on the Hanford Site as distribution and abundance data of current and historic rare plant populations are necessary to make well-informed environmental and ecological resource management decisions. The Central Hanford Rare Plant Management Plan (DOE/RL-2021-35) guides rare plant monitoring methodology in the context of resource management at the Hanford Site. In 2022, a rare plant monitoring effort occurred on the portion of the Hanford Site (referred to herein as Central Hanford) managed by the U.S. Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL; Figure 1). The goal of this effort was to revisit known occurrences of upland rare plant populations on Central Hanford to improve baseline information on locations of rare plant populations on the Hanford Site. Rare upland plants were thoroughly surveyed in 2021 but unusually low precipitation that year limited germination of many upland annual plants. Surveys in 2022 focused on rare upland annual species after the Hanford Site received higher than average spring precipitation that was expected to increase germination. Rainfall from April 2022 to June 2022 was 76% higher than average; however, these months were also colder than average. Winter rainfall from January 2022 to March 2022 was 84% lower than average. The high spring precipitation in 2022 appears to have triggered the germination of some populations of rare upland annuals but the dry winter and cold spring may have inhibited others. Population stability, viability, and threats were evaluated and will be used to inform future management of rare plant species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Informing Transmission Supply Chain Needs from National Transmission Studies

Recent national studies indicate significant transmission expansion can provide the lowest-cost option to maintain grid reliability while meeting growing demand. However, constraints in domestic supply chains may limit grid expansion across the U.S., with higher costs and longer delays for required transmission equipment. Despite growing evidence of supply chain constraints for transmission components, transmission planning studies often assume transmission equipment is readily available for deployment or analyze future demand using historical trade and manufacturing data that may not capture evolving grid needs. This report aims to address this gap by demonstrating methods to quantify future demand for critical transmission components and input materials from national-scale planning models. These components include power transformers, generator step-up transformers, converter transformers, conductors, circuit breakers, and transmission towers and the materials include aluminum, steel, grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES), and copper. The analytical approach is applied to two nodal transmission expansion scenarios from the National Transmission Planning Study (NTP) to illustrate the methods. These scenarios represent different transmission expansion strategies for the contiguous U.S. to the year 2035: the Alternating Current (AC) scenario includes AC transmission expansion within each interconnection and the Multiterminal (MT) scenario includes interregional transmission expansion across the country using both AC and multiterminal HVDC options between neighboring zones. We also explore potential heuristics to derive transmission component demand from zonal capacity expansion models (CEMs) with coarse representation of the transmission grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Informing Transmission Supply Chain Needs from National Transmission Studies

Recent national studies indicate significant transmission expansion can provide the lowest-cost option to maintain grid reliability while meeting growing demand. However, constraints in domestic supply chains may limit grid expansion across the U.S., with higher costs and longer delays for required transmission equipment. Despite growing evidence of supply chain constraints for transmission components, transmission planning studies often assume transmission equipment is readily available for deployment or analyze future demand using historical trade and manufacturing data that may not capture evolving grid needs. This report aims to address this gap by demonstrating methods to quantify future demand for critical transmission components and input materials from national-scale planning models. These components include power transformers, generator step-up transformers, converter transformers, conductors, circuit breakers, and transmission towers and the materials include aluminum, steel, grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES), and copper. The analytical approach is applied to two nodal transmission expansion scenarios from the National Transmission Planning Study (NTP) to illustrate the methods. These scenarios represent different transmission expansion strategies for the contiguous U.S. to the year 2035: the Alternating Current (AC) scenario includes AC transmission expansion within each interconnection and the Multiterminal (MT) scenario includes interregional transmission expansion across the country using both AC and multiterminal HVDC options between neighboring zones. We also explore potential heuristics to derive transmission component demand from zonal capacity expansion models (CEMs) with coarse representation of the transmission grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

SATS Enhanced Capabilities and Demonstration of Improved Ramp Rates for In-Cell Testing

This report presents the development of the second-generation Severe Accident Test Station, referred to as SATS 2.0. SATS 2.0 represents a major advancement in addressing critical research needs for the United States nuclear industry, particularly in relation to fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) concerns associated with the nuclear industry’s goal to extend fuel burnup beyond a peak rod average of 62 GWd/tU. The central objective of SATS 2.0 was the deployment a new furnace capable of achieving heating rates up to 100°C/s. This achievement addresses critical capability gaps, enabling assessment of prioritized research objectives established by the Electric Power Research Institute’s (EPRI) Collaborative Research on Advanced Fuel Technologies (CRAFT) working group. These research objectives are directly related to high-burnup loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions and the effects of prolonged exposure to elevated temperatures, both of which are crucial to enhancing nuclear safety and efficiency. The SATS 2.0 system builds upon prior experience with the original SATS system, which focused on evaluating accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) cladding concepts during accident conditions. However, the new system not only expands upon prior core capabilities by achieving higher heating rates with a better furnace but also plans to incorporate novel auxiliary systems to create a versatile platform for addressing current research needs. For example, a system was developed for the quantification and characterization of fission gas released during high-temperature transients. Additionally, in situ measurement capabilities were developed, such as digital image correlation which enabled the real-time capture of strain related to balloon and burst events and fiber-optic sensors that allowed for high-fidelity characterization of temperature gradients. Demonstration tests of the new 12-lamp furnace achieved heating rates up to 120°C/s. Notably, SATS 2.0 demonstrated its capacity to simulate LOCA burst tests at different pressures, yielding burst data that align with historical empirical models. Moreover, the system exhibited its capability to simulate complex conditions observed in anticipated operational occurrences, while effectively mitigating temperature overshoots. These accomplishments mark significant progress toward overcoming FFRD challenges and advancing the United States nuclear industry's safety basis and technical capabilities for extended burnup.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Residential Vehicle-to-Home Backup Power Capabilities: Key Findings from a ComEd Beneficial Electrification R&D Pilot

This report summarizes key findings from a collaborative technical study of residential, non-grid-tied vehicle-to-home (V2H) backup power systems in Commonwealth Edison’s (ComEd’s) service territory. The work integrates (1) a feeder-level technoeconomic analysis (TEA) using historical outage-event data and simulated electric-vehicle (EV) driving/charging profiles to estimate potential reliability and customer interruption-cost impacts under V2H and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) adoption scenarios; (2) controlled laboratory performance testing of a representative V2H backup ecosystem to characterize transfer-to-backup behavior, sustained power delivery, efficiency trends, and repeatable reliability limitations; and (3) a cybersecurity assessment aligned with NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0 and ISO/SAE 21434 to evaluate interface-level risk drivers and identify program-relevant mitigations. Results indicate that V2H can provide measurable resilience value, but outcomes are strongly context dependent on outage patterns and the share of events that are “V2H-applicable.” Typical transfer-to-backup behavior clustered on the order of minutes, but rare long-delay edge cases were observed (including an event approaching 30 minutes) and should be treated as a reliability risk. High-power testing showed that peak-rated output is not necessarily continuously deliverable; stable operation may require operation below nameplate ratings and attention to thermal and installation constraints. The cybersecurity assessment highlights a broad attack surface spanning commissioning, home networks, embedded services, and cloud/OTA pathways, motivating minimum controls for secure onboarding, signed updates, patch cadence, and coordinated vulnerability response for any scaled deployment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

IA-TmG.2.0

Soil samples were collected in triplicate in the Fall of 2017 across three grassland locations having differences in historical annual precipitation. For each of the three field site soil collections, one deeply sequenced composite metagenome (> 1 terabase) was obtained and individually sequenced in replicate to provide three additional terabase metagenomes for replicate statistical comparison in addition to screening for viral soil contigs for assessing the impact of historical annual precipitation. This data package provides new knowledge of viral types, abundances, diversity, and auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) in grassland soils for predicting viral response to changes in their environment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

KS-TmG.2.0

Soil samples were collected in triplicate in the Fall of 2017 across three grassland locations having differences in historical annual precipitation. For each of the three field site soil collections, one deeply sequenced composite metagenome (> 1 terabase) was obtained and individually sequenced in replicate to provide three additional terabase metagenomes for replicate statistical comparison in addition to screening for viral soil contigs for assessing the impact of historical annual precipitation. This data package provides new knowledge of viral types, abundances, diversity, and auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) in grassland soils for predicting viral response to changes in their environment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

WA-TmG.2.0

Soil samples were collected in triplicate in the Fall of 2017 across three grassland locations having differences in historical annual precipitation. For each of the three field site soil collections, one deeply sequenced composite metagenome (> 1 terabase) was obtained and individually sequenced in replicate to provide three additional terabase metagenomes for replicate statistical comparison in addition to screening for viral soil contigs for assessing the impact of historical annual precipitation. This data package provides new knowledge of viral types, abundances, diversity, and auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) in grassland soils for predicting viral response to changes in their environment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing shellfish water exposure to fecal bacteria pollution in Salish Sea: three-dimensional modeling and implications for monitoring

Fecal bacteria (FB) contamination poses significant risks to shellfish safety and management in coastal and estuarine waters. Despite extensive pollution identification and correction efforts, FB contamination in shellfish-growing areas persists in the Salish Sea, highlighting the need to identify overlooked sources and better understand FB transport from riverine and shoreline inputs to shellfish beds. To address this, a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model coupled with FB kinetics was developed and applied to a case study site in Salish Sea—Portage Bay—to simulate freshwater plume circulation, flushing dynamics, and bacterial transport. Daily FB loading from the major freshwater inflow—Nooksack River was generated by both linear interpolation and integrating a machine learning approach (XGBoost), trained on historical hydrological and meteorological data. The model successfully reproduced both the magnitude and seasonal variation of FB concentrations in Portage Bay for the year of 2021, demonstrating that simplified FB kinetics with first-order decay due to mortality was effective in this dynamic coastal environment with short flushing time. Model results identified the Nooksack River as the dominant far-field FB source, while scenario simulations showed that near-field coastal stormwater outfalls elevated local FB levels following rainfall, particularly under low-flow conditions. The XGBoost prediction provided comparable or superior accuracy to linear interpolation, particularly during periods of missing observational data, by capturing short-term variability and event-driven loading more effectively. Integrating data-driven riverine FB inputs with mechanistic coastal numerical modeling provides a robust framework for operational forecasting of shellfish bed exposure risk and supports adaptive monitoring and management of shellfish growing areas in the Salish Sea and similar coastal systems.

Salish Sea↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tanana River Test Site Model Verification Using the Marine and Hydrokinetic Toolkit (MHKiT)

The marine energy (ME) industry historically lacked a standardized data processing toolkit for common tasks such as data ingestion, quality control, and visualization. The marine and hydrokinetic toolkit (MHKiT) solved this issue by providing a public software deployment (open-source and free) toolkit for the ME industry to store and maintain commonly used functionality for wave, tidal, and river energy. This paper demonstrates an initial model verification study in MHKiT. Using Delft3D, a numerical model of the Tanana River Test Site (TRTS) at Nenana, Alaska was created. Field data from the site was collected using an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) at the proposed Current Energy Converter (CEC) locations. MHKiT is used to process model simulations from Delft3D and compare them to the transect data from the ADCP measurements at TRTS. The ability to use a single tool to process simulation and field data demonstrates the ease at which the ME industry can obtain results and collaborate across specialties, reducing errors and increasing efficiency.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗