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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 541 records · Page 30
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DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of the HAE activity in the TJ-II stellarator using a Landau closure model

The aim of this study is to analyze the stability of helical Alfvén eigenmodes (HAEs) in TJ-II discharges and the stabilizing effect of the energetic particles generated by the neutral beam injector (NBI) on pressure gradient-driven modes (PGDMs). HAE and PGDM stability is studied using the linear version of the gyro-fluid code FAR3d and the continuous structure by the STELLGAP code. First, Alfvén eigenmode (AE) and PGDM activity observed in the experiments is reproduced by the simulations, identifying unstable m/n = 4/7 − 2/3 and 7/12 − 5/8 HAEs triggered around ρ = 0.66 showing a frequency of 209 and 204 kHz, respectively, as well as 5/3 PGDM. Next, a parametric study is performed with respect to the thermal ion density and iota profile in the middle-outer plasma region to verify the robustness of the simulation results with respect to the uncertainty of experimental profiles. The analysis confirms that experimental uncertainty does not cause large deviations in the simulation results, showing the destabilization of the same HAEs for all the configurations tested. The simulations also indicate the decay of the 5/3 PGDM growth rate as the energetic particle (EP) population in the plasma increases, consistent with the experiment. Stability analysis of the n = 3, 7, 11, n = 5, 9, 13, n = 6, 10, 14, and n = 8, 12 helical families is performed with respect to the NBI operational regime for different EP energies, β as well as deposition profiles. The most unstable configuration is the radially localized on-axis NBI operation (stiff EP density profile gradients nearby the magnetic axis). Using the simulation model that reproduces the observed Alfvén activity, we extend the study to analyze NBI performance within a theoretical framework. It shows that increasing NBI voltage (which raises EP energy) leads to a degradation in NBI performance for a given power (related to EP β and their density). To achieve better NBI operation, higher voltage must be balanced with lower injection power, ensuring stable AEs while keeping the same EP β.

Plasma confinement↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extracting halo independent information from dark matter electron scattering data

Direct detection experiments and the interpretation of their results are sensitive to the velocity structure of the dark matter in our galactic halo. Here we extend the formalism that deals with such astrophysics-driven uncertainties, originally introduced in the context of dark-matter-nuclear scattering, to include dark-matter-electron scattering interactions. Using mock data, we demonstrate that the ability to determine the correct dark matter mass and velocity distribution is depleted for recoil spectra which only populate a few low-lying bins, such as models involving a light mediator. We also demonstrate how this formalism allows one to test the compatibility of existing experimental data sets (e.g. SENSEI and EDELWEISS), as well as make predictions for possible future experiments (e.g. GaAs-based detectors).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Artificial Reasoning System for Symptom-Based Conditional Failure Probability Estimation Using Bayesian Network

Advances in nuclear power technologies require enhanced capabilities for operator advice and autonomous control. One of the first tasks in the development of such capabilities is the formulation of symptom-based conditional failure probabilities for structures, systems, and components (SSCs) of interest, for which the primary goal is to aid plant personnel in deducing the probabilistic performance status of the monitored SSCs and in detecting impending faults/failure. The task of conditional failure probability estimation is a bidirectional inference problem and shall be logically tackled by the Bayesian network (BN) approach. As a knowledge-based artificial intelligence tool and a probabilistic graphical model, BN offers the capability of reasoning under uncertainty and graphical representation emulating the physical behavior of the target SSC. This paper provides a systematic overview of the BN technique and the software tools for handling implementation of BN models, along with the associated knowledge representation and reasoning paradigm. Both operational data and expert judgement can be readily incorporated into the knowledge base of a BN model. The challenges with data availability are highlighted, and the general approach to target SSC identification is presented. Our focus is upon failure-prone and risk-important balance of plant assets, especially cases having strong operator involvement. An exemplary case study on the failure of a motor-driven centrifugal pump is also conducted to demonstrate the usefulness and technical feasibility of the proposed artificial reasoning system using an expert system shell.

Zhao, Xingang↗
DOE OSTI2022

Milky Way Satellite Census. IV. Constraints on Decaying Dark Matter from Observations of Milky Way Satellite Galaxies

Abstract We use a recent census of the Milky Way (MW) satellite galaxy population to constrain the lifetime of particle dark matter (DM). We consider two-body decaying dark matter (DDM) in which a heavy DM particle decays with lifetime τ comparable to the age of the universe to a lighter DM particle (with mass splitting ϵ ) and to a dark radiation species. These decays impart a characteristic “kick velocity,” V kick = ϵ c , on the DM daughter particles, significantly depleting the DM content of low-mass subhalos and making them more susceptible to tidal disruption. We fit the suppression of the present-day DDM subhalo mass function (SHMF) as a function of τ and V kick using a suite of high-resolution zoom-in simulations of MW-mass halos, and we validate this model on new DDM simulations of systems specifically chosen to resemble the MW. We implement our DDM SHMF predictions in a forward model that incorporates inhomogeneities in the spatial distribution and detectability of MW satellites and uncertainties in the mapping between galaxies and DM halos, the properties of the MW system, and the disruption of subhalos by the MW disk using an empirical model for the galaxy–halo connection. By comparing to the observed MW satellite population, we conservatively exclude DDM models with τ < 18 Gyr (29 Gyr) for V kick = 20 kms −1 (40 kms −1 ) at 95% confidence. These constraints are among the most stringent and robust small-scale structure limits on the DM particle lifetime and strongly disfavor DDM models that have been proposed to alleviate the Hubble and S 8 tensions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Preliminary Radiological Risk Assessment Model for Disposition of Remote-Handled Transuranic Wastes at Los Alamos National Laboratory Area G - 20116

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) operates a low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal site at Material Disposal Area G, in Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA. Area G has been the primary LLW disposal site for Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) since the 1960's. In addition to LLW, Area G is host to a variety of other wastes, the disposition of which must be determined before closure of the site. A probabilistic Radiological Risk Assessment (RRA) for Area G is used in order to support decision making regarding some wastes that are not addressed in the extant Area G Performance Assessment (PA) and Composite Analysis (CA). Between 1979 and 1987, 33 special shafts were augered into the Bandelier Tuff at Area G. This volcanic tuff is present across Pajarito Plateau on the eastern slopes of the Jemez Mountains, and varies widely in its consistency, from weakly indurated non-welded layers to welded layers that uphold the mesa cliffs of the Plateau. These mesas are home to LANL, Area G, and the townsites of Los Alamos and White Rock, with residences about 1400 m from Area G. The 33 Shafts were lined with steel casing, and contain remote-handled (RH) transuranic wastes (TRU) resulting from experiments and analysis performed in special glove boxes at the Chemistry and Metallurgy Research (CMR) facility at LANL. Some of these wastes originated as used nuclear fuel. The purpose of the Area G RRA is to evaluate the potential future risk to humans and the environment from the RH TRU in the 33 Shafts in the context of the risk associated with the surrounding wastes at Area G. The analysis is responsive to expectations outlined in DOE Order 458.1, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment, and is informed by the Manual and Guidance accompanying DOE O 435.1, Radioactive Waste Management. Because the waste meets the definition of TRU, the regulatory context necessarily takes into consideration the regulation governing the disposal of TRU from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): 40 CFR 191, Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Radioactive Wastes. Given the broader regulatory context for the RRA, the analysis is subject to different assumptions from those made in the existing DOE O 435.1 PA and CA, such as allowing for future occupation of the site. The analysis begins with a comprehensive evaluation of features, events, processes, and exposure scenarios (FEPS) for Area G and the wastes it contains. These FEPSs are screened to eliminate from further consideration those of extremely low probability and/or consequence, and a conceptual site model (CSM) is subsequently developed. The scope and structure of the Area G RRA Model is informed by this CSM, and the Area G RRA Model is developed using the GoldSim systems analysis modeling platform. This paper presents the initial version of a defensible, transparent, and reasonably realistic model, which is based on the state of knowledge of the wastes, the site, and the FEPSs that govern contaminant transport from wastes into the environment and subsequent exposures to humans and other biota. Probabilistic model input distributions represent uncertainties inherent in the real and modeled systems. The results of the Area G RRA Model inform decisions regarding the disposition of the RH TRU in the 33 Shafts. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solar neutrino detection in liquid xenon detectors via charged-current scattering to excited states

We investigate the prospects for real-time detection of solar neutrinos via the charged-current neutrino-nucleus scattering process in liquid xenon time projection chambers. We use a nuclear shell model, benchmarked with experimental data, to calculate the cross sections for populating specific excited states of the cesium nuclei produced by neutrino capture on Xe 131 and Xe 136 . The shell model is further used to compute the decay schemes of the low-lying 1 + excited states of Cs 136 , for which there is sparse experimental data. We explore the possibility of tagging the characteristic deexcitation γ rays/conversion electrons using two techniques: spatial separation of their energy deposits using event topology and their time separation using delayed coincidence. The efficiencies in each case are evaluated within a range of realistic detector parameters. We find that the topological signatures are likely to be dominated by radon backgrounds, but that a delayed-coincidence signature from long-lived states predicted in Cs 136 may enable background-free detection of CNO neutrino interactions in next-generation experiments with smaller uncertainty than current measurements. We also estimate the sensitivity as a function of exposure for detecting the solar-temperature-induced line shift in Be 7 neutrino emission, which may provide a new test of solar models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hot and dense matter equation of state probability distributions for astrophysical simulations

We add an ensemble of nuclei to the equation of state for homogeneous nucleonic matter to generate a new set of models suitable for astrophysical simulations of core-collapse supernovae and neutron star mergers. We implement empirical constraints from (i) nuclear mass measurements, (ii) proton-proton scattering phase shifts, and (iii) neutron star observations. Our model is also guided by microscopic many-body theory calculations based on realistic nuclear forces, including the zero-temperature neutron matter equation of state from quantum Monte Carlo simulations and thermal contributions to the free energy from finite-temperature many-body perturbation theory. We ensure that the parameters of our model can be varied while preserving thermodynamic consistency and the connection to experimental or observational data, thus providing a probability distribution of the astrophysical hot and dense matter equation of state. Furthermore, we compare our results with those obtained from other available equations of state. While our probability distributions indeed represent a large number of possible equations of state, we cannot yet claim to have fully explored all of the uncertainties, especially with regard to the structure of nuclei in the hot and dense medium.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A round-robin approach provides a detailed assessment of biomolecular small-angle scattering data reproducibility and yields consensus curves for benchmarking

Through an expansive international effort that involved data collection on 12 small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and four small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) instruments, 171 SAXS and 76 SANS measurements for five proteins (ribonuclease A, lysozyme, xylanase, urate oxidase and xylose isomerase) were acquired. From these data, the solvent-subtracted protein scattering profiles were shown to be reproducible, with the caveat that an additive constant adjustment was required to account for small errors in solvent subtraction. Further, the major features of the obtained consensus SAXS data over the q measurement range 0–1 Å −1 are consistent with theoretical prediction. The inherently lower statistical precision for SANS limited the reliably measured q -range to <0.5 Å −1 , but within the limits of experimental uncertainties the major features of the consensus SANS data were also consistent with prediction for all five proteins measured in H 2 O and in D 2 O. Thus, a foundation set of consensus SAS profiles has been obtained for benchmarking scattering-profile prediction from atomic coordinates. Additionally, two sets of SAXS data measured at different facilities to q > 2.2 Å −1 showed good mutual agreement, affirming that this region has interpretable features for structural modelling. SAS measurements with inline size-exclusion chromatography (SEC) proved to be generally superior for eliminating sample heterogeneity, but with unavoidable sample dilution during column elution, while batch SAS data collected at higher concentrations and for longer times provided superior statistical precision. Careful merging of data measured using inline SEC and batch modes, or low- and high-concentration data from batch measurements, was successful in eliminating small amounts of aggregate or interparticle interference from the scattering while providing improved statistical precision overall for the benchmarking data set.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drone flight visible images, digital elevation maps, and geotiffs, Council, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, USA, July 2017

Remote sensing data collected from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s (LBNL) unmanned aerial system (UAS) quadcopter platform – Inspire-1 – operated by the Ameriflux Management Project (ameriflux.lbl.gov) Technical Team. The Insprire-1 is a visible imagery UAS platform that simultaneously measures very high spatial resolution optical red/green/blue (RGB) at regular intervals along each flight path. This package includes data from four flight paths over the NGEE Arctic Council Road Site near mile marker 71 in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska in July 2017. Derived image products for each flight include ortho-mosaiced RGB, an RGB-based digital surface model (DSM) using the structure from motion (SfM) technique, and a digital terrain model (DTM). Ancillary aircraft data, flight mission parameters, and general flight conditions are also included. Unprocessed and processed data products are included in this package (processing levels 0-2). This metadata document contains flight campaign, instrument and file metadata, along with a description of data processing levels, data products and file naming scheme.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic) was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drone flight visible images, digital elevation maps, and geotiffs, Teller, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, USA, July 2017

Remote sensing data collected from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s (LBNL) unmanned aerial system (UAS) quadcopter platform – Inspire-1 – operated by the Ameriflux Management Project (ameriflux.lbl.gov) Technical Team. The Insprire-1 is a visible imagery UAS platform that simultaneously measures very high spatial resolution optical red/green/blue (RGB) at regular intervals along the flight path. This package includes data from a flight path over the NGEE Arctic Teller Site, west of mile marker 27 Bob Blodgett Highway in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska in July 2017. Derived image products include ortho-mosaiced RGB, an RGB-based digital surface model (DSM) using the structure from motion (SfM) technique, and a digital terrain model (DTM). Ancillary aircraft data, flight mission parameters, and general flight conditions are also included. Unprocessed and processed data products are included in this package (processing levels 0-2). This metadata document contains flight campaign, instrument and file metadata, along with a description of data processing levels, data products and file naming scheme.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic) was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drone flight visible images, digital elevation maps, and geotiffs, Kougarok, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, USA, July 2017

Remote sensing data collected from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s (LBNL) unmanned aerial system (UAS) quadcopter platform – Inspire-1 – operated by the Ameriflux Management Project (ameriflux.lbl.gov) Technical Team. The Insprire-1 is a visible imagery UAS platform that simultaneously measures very high spatial resolution optical red/green/blue (RGB) at regular intervals along each flight path. This package includes data from four flight paths over the NGEE Arctic Kougarok Site, west of mile marker 64 on Kuzitrin Road in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska in July 2017. Derived image products include ortho-mosaiced RGB, an RGB-based digital surface model (DSM) using the structure from motion (SfM) technique, and a digital terrain model (DTM). Ancillary aircraft data, flight mission parameters, and general flight conditions are also included. Unprocessed and processed data products are included in this package (processing levels 0-2). This metadata document contains flight campaign, instrument and file metadata, along with a description of data processing levels, data products and file naming scheme.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic) was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design, Optimization, and Control of Floating Offshore Wind Farms for Optimal Energy Production (Final report)

The uncertainty and irregularity of ocean waves and the ocean environment is a major factor in the development of commercial scale floating wind turbines as the operation of floating structures in such an environment can lead to irregular and unpredictable loading, fatigue, and ultimately a reduction in the operational life of the turbine system which affects energy production over the lifetime of the turbine. Control solutions that can limit float motions and mitigate stressful events on the structure become essential for extending lifetime and limiting the operational uncertainty of a floating wind turbine. Digital twins are computational replicas of physical systems that operate in parallel with the operation of the physical system. Given advanced knowledge of a systems input, digital twins have the ability to predict the behavior of a system in advance, which can be valuable in the control of that system. In this project, we developed and assessed potential digital twin models developed in house and openly available (OpenFast) for use in the real time control of the six degree of freedom response motions of a floating wind turbine in ocean waves. Coupling these models with near-field real time irregular sea surface (wve) measurement/sensings and prediction models, we used the digital twin to predict how the floating turbine will respond to the incoming waves. Applying this information to a motion control system of the float, one can limit and control float motions to prevent undesirable loading events/large angular motions, thus increasing system life and ultimately contributing to optimizing energy production. Due to the computational intensity of operating a digital twin in real time, we investigated the use of artificial intelligence techniques to speed-up the processes of the digital twin, as well as the wave reconstruction/prediction models. Model tank testing at the University of Rhode Island and University of Maine both validated and demonstrated the developed techniques on simple float geometries and a scale model of the NREL 15 MW reference turbine.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Finite Element Analysis of the TRUST Nonlinear Dynamics Testbed

This paper builds on prior work conducted within the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainty in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) program. Specifically, it builds on finite element (FE) modeling efforts for the TRUST program’s Nonlinear Dynamics (ND) testbed. Historically, the FE model for the ND testbed has exclusively utilized a Lanczos eigensolver that linearly extracts the system’s natural frequencies. This paper investigates the Abaqus 2024’s explicit dynamic solver, which implements a central difference explicit solver. The central difference method used in Abaqus can capture nonlinear material responses in structural dynamic simulations making it suitable for the ND FE model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Operation Optimization Using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework

In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.

Kim, Junyung↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initial development of a generic fluoride salt-cooled reactor model

Fluoride high-temperature reactors (FHRs) are high-temperature, low-pressure reactor concepts that use tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel and molten fluoride salt coolant. These reactors have the potential to provide both electrical power and high-temperature process heat. We used generic FHR parameters for a pebble-bed FHR to develop an initial model with fresh fuel for a generic FHR (gFHR) in MELCOR and SCALE (NEWT and KENO). In this paper, we present the development of our gFHR models, which will serve as the baseline for a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to quantify the range of possible source terms for FHRs in severe accidents. We present MELCOR results for fuel and coolant temperatures through the core, a nodalization study for the steady-state thermal hydraulic model, and development of reactor physics models in SCALE. As this work progresses, these models will be used to calculate source terms for a loss-of-forced-flow accident and to conduct a sensitivity study on this accident to establish a range of possible source terms. SCALE will provide reactor physics parameters like isotopic inventory, decay heat generation, and temperature coefficients of reactivity. Using the uncertainty quantification tools within SCALE, we will generate distributions for those parameters and will use the uncertainty quantification code RAVEN or DAKOTA to sample those distributions in MELCOR to quantify the impact of reactor physics and thermal hydraulic uncertainties on FHR source terms. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed MultiPphysics BestEestimate Plus Uncertainties (BEPU) Application Development of RELAP5-3D Perturbation Model

The United States nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to ensure maximum safety while enhancing economic benefit. Safety is a key parameter to all aspects related to light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs), especially cost savings. Since the goal is to extend the lifetimes of these NPPs, the traditional deterministic safety concept may not guarantee a current economic asset. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program has been promoting a wide range of research and development (R&D) in this field to maximize the safety, economics, and performance of these NPPs through improved scientific understanding. One of the best practices to achieve this goal is to identify and optimize safety margins, which can lead to cost reduction. To do this, under the LWRS framework, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway will focus on the optimization of safety margin and minimization of uncertainties to ensure both safety and economics at the highest level. The RISA Pathway will provide enhanced capabilities for analyzing and characterizing LWR systems performance by developing and demonstrating methods, tools, and data to enable risk-informed margins management (RIMM). The goals of the RISA Pathway are twofold: (1) deploy the risk-informed tools and methods that enable better representation of safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety; and (2) conduct advanced risk assessment applications with industry to support margin management strategies that enable more cost-effective plant operation. The tools and methods provided by the RISA Pathway will support effective margin management for both active and passive safety systems, structures, and components (SSC) of an NPP. The tools and methods used in the RISA Pathway should have high confidence and highest technical maturity for and implementation to industry at its current setting. They should also have a capability to support risk-informed decision making for both probabilistic and deterministic elements of safety. The RISA Pathway will, therefore, perform a comprehensive assessment of verification and validation (V&V) status of RISA Toolkit to enhance credibility RISA Toolkit which be used by industry. This report summarizes RELAP5-3D development activities for best estimated and uncertainty (BEPU) capability to support ongoing RISA Pathway pilot projects for risk informed uncertainty quantification applications. Work scope includes (1) development of initial perturbation model for selected closure laws and (2) testing of suitable probability distribution functions (PDF) for the selected correlations. Developed BEPU modules are tested with selected separate effect cases and compared with conventional thermal-hydraulics model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Yes, No, Maybe So: Human Factors Considerations for Fostering Calibrated Trust in Foundation Models Under Uncertainty

High-stakes analytical environments require analysts to evaluate evidence and generate conclusions to inform critical decisions often under conditions of uncertainty. Probabilistic decision-making based on incomplete or inaccurate information can reduce productivity, compromise national interests, and endanger public safety. Researchers are developing expert systems built on foundation models (FMs) to support analysts’ decision-making processes by enabling human-artificial intelligence (AI) teaming, in part through the quantification and expression of uncertainty information. As FMs continue to mature, it is imperative to correspondingly consider analysts’ needs for appropriately interpreting and using uncertainty information. However, prior research indicates that it remains unclear how analysts engage with FM-generated uncertainty information and the extent to which these interactions influence trust in, and reliance on, expert systems. We plan to review the state of the science and conduct an exploratory, qualitative study to (a) understand how properly communicated uncertainty can foster calibrated trust and appropriate reliance and (b) identify approaches for effectively conveying FM-generated uncertainty information during analytical workflows. We will administer semi-structured interviews with analysts from a specific high-stakes analytical environment to collect their current experiences with job-related uncertainty and their impressions when viewing FM-generated uncertainty information. During the interview protocol, participants will be presented with several different FM outputs and invited to discuss their thoughts and beliefs about the uncertainty information displayed. Participants may provide insights into how trust and reliance may be influenced by uncertainty. The results of this study will help us to better understand how analysts currently interpret and use uncertainty information. Our findings may inform human factors recommendations for effectively conveying uncertainty information to foster calibrated trust in, and appropriate reliance on, expert systems. Interaction designers and FM developers can use this knowledge to enhance human-AI teaming and ensure the responsible deployment of FM-based expert systems in analytical workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Boosting efficiency and reducing graph reliance: Basis adaptation integration in Bayesian multi-fidelity networks

The computational cost of high-fidelity numerical models makes outer-loop analysis, which requires repeated interrogation of the model such as uncertainty quantification, computationally demanding. Multi-fidelity methods, which construct a surrogate model using data from an ensemble of models of varying cost and accuracy, can substantially reduce the cost of outer-loop analysis. However, these methods can be difficult to apply when the model ensemble does not admit a clear hierarchy a priori and the correlations between models are low. Consequently, in this paper, we present a multi-fidelity method that leverages dimension reduction to enhance the correlation between models, thereby reducing the amount of data needed to train a surrogate from an unordered ensemble of models. Our method utilizes basis adaptation to build low-dimensional polynomial chaos expansions of each model and employs Multi-fidelity Networks to encode the relationships among models. We show that the resulting method exhibit two notable advantages over its counterpart: (1) enhanced accuracy (both reduced bias and variance); and (2) reduced dependency on the graph structure encoding relationships among models. We demonstrate the approach on an analytical test problem and a challenging finite element model for a spent nuclear fuel. Our method produces a surrogate model that is significantly more accurate than either a single-fidelity surrogate or a multi-fidelity surrogate constructed without basis adaptation.

42 ENGINEERING↗