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At least 541 records · Page 30

Full ribosomal operon sequencing of anaerobic gut fungi (phylum Neocallimastigomycota ): insights on its markers and phylogenetic resolution

The phylogenetic affiliations of anaerobic gut fungi (Neocallimastigomycota) are typically evaluated using single-gene markers. However, this approach often fails to resolve relationships between closely related lineages. To address this issue and identify alternative markers, we created a curated database comprising the complete ribosomal operon sequences of 156 isolates, representing 20 of the 22 recognized genera and two new genus-level clades. Using long-read sequencing, we obtained ~9 kbp operon sequences and developed a robust analysis pipeline. Incorporating both coding genes and non-coding regions (excluding IGS1) improved phylogenetic resolution. This phylogenetic approach successfully resolved the Cyllamyces and Caecomyces clades (hard-to-distinguish genetically), as well as seven analysed Piromyces species. We also scanned the operon for markers that are suitable for short-read sequencing platforms, with the aim of enhancing biodiversity and phylogenetic studies. Notably, the ETS1 genetic region also enabled the distinction between these lineages, indicating its phylogenetic value within the ribosomal operon. The resulting database is a valuable resource for expanding and strengthening phylogenetic frameworks.

High-throughput sequencing↗

Subtask 1.3 – Integrated Carbon Capture and Storage for North Dakota Ethanol Production

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with Red Trail Energy, LLC (RTE), a North Dakota ethanol producer; the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) Renewable Energy Program (REP); and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), conducted a feasibility and implementation study for a commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) effort. This subtask provided technical support and developed recommended practices of how small-scale industrial CO2 emitters (<1,000,000 tonnes of CO2 emitted annually) may economically deploy CCS. The 64-million-gallon dry mill RTE ethanol facility, emitting an average 180,000 tonnes of CO2 annually, was the subject of the case study. The positive outcome of this research, which shows technical and economic potential for ethanol–CCS in North Dakota, has resulted in RTE acquiring an approved Permit to Drill on December 2, 2019, for a stratigraphic test well in early 2020, a necessary step toward a North Dakota CO2 Storage Facility Permit (SFP) for the RTE CCS effort. Outcomes include 1) validating the Broom Creek Formation as a regional target for CCS, 2) determining the full carbon life cycle of an industrial fuel production facility with CCS, 3) developing a field implementation plan (FIP) for small-scale CCS, and 4) determining the validity and pathway for using CCS to meet low-carbon fuel (LCF) standards. The technical team included the EERC, RTE, Trimeric Corporation, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Computer Modelling Group (CMG). Findings from activities conducted November 2016 – May 2020 are summarized as follows. Several key steps have been accomplished toward validating the Broom Creek Formation as a CO2 injection and storage target at the RTE CCS site, including verification of the presence and structure of sandstone layers that may comprise the potential CO2 storage reservoir and the several thousand feet of overlying confining zone. Work included site characterization using existing data, interpretation of seismic data within the study area, and geologic modeling simulation of CO2 injection. Interpreted results estimate 3000 feet of confining zone between the Broom Creek Formation (storage target) and the lowermost underground source of drinking water (e.g., the Fox Hills Formation). The thickness of the Broom Creek injection target varies 230–420 ft within the survey area. Results were used to inform the location of a stratigraphic test well and associated characterization test program. No impediments were identified within the targeted CO2 storage complex that would prevent the project from moving forward. A stratigraphic test well is the next step to validate these results and to acquire remaining data necessary to develop a North Dakota CO2 SFP application. The EERC generated full carbon life cycle estimates for CCS integration with the RTE ethanol facility. Results indicated that an average 40% reduction in CO2 emissions is possible through CCS implementation. Approximately half of the carbon in the overall life cycle for a dry mill ethanol plant is generated through the fermentation process and emitted to the atmosphere; this is the CO2 stream targeted for CCS. The remaining carbon is attributed to corn feedstock farming (diesel, fertilizer), energy for fuel processing (natural gas, electricity), and transportation (diesel) of the fuel product. Life cycle carbon estimates are also affected by the anticipated energy consumption of a potential capture facility, which depend on the type of CO2 product generated. For example, a 30%–40% net CO2 emission reduction is estimated if a liquefied CO2 facility were incorporated compared to a 40%–50% net CO2 reduction if a supercritical “injection-grade” CO2 product is generated; i.e., more energy is required to further refine the CO2 stream, affecting the full carbon life cycle estimates. A CCS FIP was developed and initiated at the RTE CCS site, resulting in the development of several guidance documents: a CO2 Capture Process Design Package, a North Dakota CO2 geologic Storage Permits Template, and a Public Outreach Package for CCS in North Dakota. General FIP components include CO2 capture system, pipeline and well designs; monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) plans; geologic characterization and testing programs; and permitting and outreach plans. Vendor bids were also acquired for the CO2 liquefaction facility. Near-surface characterization (groundwater and soil gas sampling) and geologic characterization (seismic survey) were initiated to inform development of a UIC Class VI-compliant MVA plan compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. Designs (well and geologic testing) were completed for a stratigraphic test well compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. In addition, the outreach plan was executed, including community open houses, meetings with city/county/state officials, and development of public materials. Although other entities continued to mature incentive programs in 2019–2020, California and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) currently provide the most advanced economic opportunities for CCS integrated with fuel production. The California Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) adopted a CCS Protocol in January 2019, allowing submittal of a design-based pathway (DBP) application for an approved temporary (not certified) carbon intensity value for a fully engineered facility. An ethanol–CCS DBP application to the California LCFS Program (officially approved February 28, 2020) was developed to show that the RTE CCS effort meets LCFS requirements. The approved DBP provides confidence to advance the project and supports potential investments. Other entities continue to mature incentive programs. The IRS issued guidance in February 2020 that addresses the definition of beginning of construction and revenue procedure on partnerships for the Enhancement of Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Credit (a.k.a. Section 45Q) CCS tax credit program; the IRS anticipates issuing further guidance on issues such as secure geologic storage, utilization qualifications, and recapture of claimed credits. Maturing incentive programs coupled with workable permitting regulations provide confidence to advance CCS projects in North Dakota and support financial investment to proceed with designing, constructing, and implementing CCS projects at small-scale fuel production facilities. The largest hurdles for CCS implementation at small-scale industrial systems are often business/economic-related (i.e., not technical). Market uncertainty already exists for agriculture-based alternative fuels such as corn ethanol, for which production has increased by ~33%, and prices have correspondingly lowered since 2015. Passing the Section 45Q tax credit program improves economic feasibility for CCS but may require external investors for a small business to achieve maximum benefits. Public–private partnerships with NDIC and DOE have resulted in foundational technical and regulatory knowledge, growing stakeholder confidence, and a pathway to implementation that enables similar industrial CCS projects in the region to advance. This subtask was funded through the EERC–DOE Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by NDIC and RTE. The authors would also like to thank CMG, ESRI, IHS, Neuralog, and Schlumberger for allowing the use of their software packages in support of this work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Implementing and Improving CBMZ-MAM3 Chemistry and Aerosol Modules in the Regional Climate Model WRF-CAM5: An Evaluation over the Western US and Eastern North Pacific

The representation of aerosols in climate-chemistry models is important for air quality and climate change research, but it can require significant computational resources. The objective of this study was to improve the representation of aerosols in climate–chemistry models, specifically in the carbon bond mechanism, version Z (CBMZ), and modal aerosol modules with three lognormal modes (MAM3) in the WRF-CAM5 model. The study aimed to enhance the model’s chemistry capabilities by incorporating biomass burning emissions, establishing a conversion mechanism between volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and secondary organic carbons (SOCs), and evaluating its performance against observational benchmarks. The results of the study demonstrated the effectiveness of the enhanced chemistry capabilities in the WRF-CAM5 model. Six simulations were conducted over the western U.S. and northeastern Pacific region, comparing the model’s performance with observational benchmarks such as reanalysis, ground-based, and satellite data. The findings revealed a significant reduction in root-mean-square errors (RMSE) for surface concentrations of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). Specifically, the model exhibited a 31% reduction in RMSE for BC concentrations and a 58% reduction in RMSE for OC concentrations. These outcomes underscored the importance of accurate aerosol representation in climate-chemistry models and emphasized the potential for improving simulation accuracy and reducing errors through the incorporation of enhanced chemistry modules in such models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-Level Assessment of Grid Infrastructure in Southeast Asia to Support Regional Interconnections

The purpose of this slide deck is to provide an overview of the benefits of interregional transmission and to assess the specific transmission landscape of Southeast Asia, with respect to potential interconnections between Singapore and neighboring countries. This analysis also explores the distribution of renewable resources and electricity demand in ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as well as current and anticipated interregional transmission, in order to inform future interconnection plans.

ASEAN↗

CO 2 Storage Site Screening Platform Development and CO 2 Storage Resource Analysis in SECARB Offshore Reservoirs Using SAS Viya

A major goal of the SECARB Offshore Partnership (DE-FE0031557) is to screen deep saline aquifers and hydrocarbon reservoirs in the central Gulf of Mexico for CO 2 sequestration and CO 2 -enhanced oil and gas recovery (EOR/EGR) and estimate the corresponding CO 2 storage resources for select reservoirs. CO 2 storage potential associated with offshore CO 2 -EOR is considerable and likely represents “low hanging fruit” for near-term CO 2 storage given the in-place infrastructure in the region. It is for these reasons that this assessment focuses on oil and gas fields. To this end, three major objectives have been completed and include (1) managing geological data derived from different sources, (2) building a reservoir screening platform for CO 2 storage, and (3) ranking the reservoirs based on the estimated CO 2 storage resources. The SAS ® Viya platform was used for data management and analytics. The Viya platform is a cloud service platform that provides data integration, data management, quick analytics, data visualization, machine learning functions, and application programming interfaces (APIs) for multi-programming languages. Different sources of data containing geologic information, reservoir properties, and EOR/EGR information were collected, cleaned, formatted, and loaded into the SAS ® Viya platform for evaluation. The major geological characteristics of both shelf and deep-water areas of the central Gulf were examined and compared to define the appropriate reservoir screening criteria. Next, a CO 2 storage site screening system was built in the SAS ® Viya platform with the pre-defined criteria. Finally, the CO 2 storage resources of the screened reservoirs were calculated and reported at the BOEM field level to identify fields with the highest estimated CO 2 storage resource. The fields with the largest total estimated CO 2 storage resource are located in the Mississippi Canyon protraction area. Due to proximity to the Mississippi Delta (indicative of less infrastructure) and large estimated CO 2 storage resources, future development activities may wish to focus efforts in the Mississippi Canyon protraction area.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Validation of Reanalysis-Based Offshore Wind Resource Characterization Using Lidar Buoy Observations

The offshore wind industry in the U.S. is gaining strong momentum to achieve sustainable energy goals, and the need for observations to provide resource characterization and model validation is greater than ever. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates two lidar buoys for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in order to collect hub height wind data and associated meteorological and oceanographic information near the surface in areas of interest for offshore wind development. This work evaluates the performance of commonly used reanalysis products and spatial approximation techniques using lidar buoy observations off the coast of New Jersey and Virginia, USA. Reanalysis products are essential tools in order to set performance expectations and quantify the wind resource variability at a given site. Long-term accurate observations at typical wind turbine hub-heights have been lacking at offshore locations. Using wind speed observations from both lidar buoy deployments, biases and degrees of correspondence for the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the analysis system of the Rapid Refresh (RAP) are examined both at hub height and near surface. Results provide insights on the performance and uncertainty of using reanalysis products for long-term wind resource characterization.

lidar buoy, model validation, offshore wind energy↗

Impacts of Thawing Permafrost on Residential Infrastructure: Results and Resources

Permafrost underlies approximately 20% of the landmass in the Northern Hemisphere. Inevitably human infrastructure has been and will be built on permafrost; however, due to climate change, the permafrost in many regions has begun to thaw. Using past reports and surveys as guidance, a survey was conducted to track the effects of permafrost thaw on housing infrastructure in the community of Point Lay, Alaska. The Cold Climate Housing Research Center, Inc. and the National Renewable Energy Lab conducted a literature review and interviews to document community issues from thawing permafrost and identify potential mitigation strategies for existing and new infrastructure. Researchers also identified strategies for individual homeowners to inspect their foundations for current issues or anticipate future ones. This poster will cover the results from the survey on the effects of permafrost thawing to Point Lay and include permafrost basics, common concerns from thawing permafrost, steps to identify permafrost sites and visible signs of permafrost degradation, and potential mitigation strategies that may be beneficial to Alaskans and increase resilience in the Arctic.

Alaska↗

MRCI Subtask 2.2: Precambrian Basement Structure, Faulting, and Stress Final Technical Summary Report

Subtask 2.2 was largely focused on compiling information about the Precambrian basement rock that underlies the MRCI region. Understanding the nature and extent of the basement rock is important in order to mitigate certain risks associated with CO2 injection. For example, this information will provide a resource for defining areas where a storage reservoir is in direct contact with the Precambrian or indirectly via a fault. Also, an understanding of the stress field in addition to fault orientations will help determine which faults may be subject to reactivation under increased pore pressures.

Battelle,CCS,CCUS,Carbon storage,MRCI,Midwest Regi↗

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis Best Practices

Play fairway analysis (PFA) is a methodology that can improve success rates for geothermal exploration drilling, thus reducing the costs of geothermal projects while facilitating development in new areas. It was originally developed for the oil and gas industry, but has been adapted for discovering geothermal resources over the last decade. The geothermal PFA methodology involves systematically screening a set geographic area for promising qualities typically related to the presence of heat, permeability, and fluid. Successful application of PFA can identify hidden hydrothermal systems. From 2014 to 2021 the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) supported the development of PFA for geothermal resources through awards to 11 research teams across the country. The goal of these projects was to advance and adapt PFA for geothermal exploration to produce regional-scale maps that reduce exploration uncertainty. This report is an outcome of the NREL-led PFA Retrospective project, which compiled, synthesized, analyzed the results of GTO's geothermal PFA program. Ultimately, we find that these projects greatly advanced approaches to geothermal exploration and resulted in extensive new data and new discoveries of unrecognized geothermal systems. We used the results to distill best practices in this report and to provide guidance for future applications of geothermal PFA.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A Fast‐Charging and High‐Temperature All‐Organic Rechargeable Potassium Battery

Abstract Developing fast‐charging, high‐temperature, and sustainable batteries is critical for the large‐scale deployment of energy storage devices in electric vehicles, grid‐scale electrical energy storage, and high temperature regions. Here, a transition metal‐free all‐organic rechargeable potassium battery (RPB) based on abundant and sustainable organic electrode materials (OEMs) and potassium resources for fast‐charging and high‐temperature applications is demonstrated. N‐doped graphene and a 2.8 m potassium hexafluorophosphate (KPF 6 ) in diethylene glycol dimethyl ether (DEGDME) electrolyte are employed to mitigate the dissolution of OEMs, enhance the electrode conductivity, accommodate large volume change, and form stable solid electrolyte interphase in the all‐organic RPB. At room temperature, the RPB delivers a high specific capacity of 188.1 mAh g −1 at 50 mA g −1 and superior cycle life of 6000 and 50000 cycles at 1 and 5 A g −1 , respectively, demonstrating an ultra‐stable and fast‐charging all‐organic battery. The impressive performance at room temperature is extended to high temperatures, where the high‐mass‐loading (6.5 mg cm −2 ) all‐organic RPB exhibits high‐rate capability up to 2 A g −1 and a long lifetime of 500 cycles at 70–100 °C, demonstrating a superb fast‐charging and high‐temperature battery. The cell configuration demonstrated in this work shows great promise for practical applications of sustainable batteries at extreme conditions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Functionally discrete fine roots differ in microbial assembly, microbial functional potential, and produced metabolites

Traditionally, fine roots were grouped using arbitrary size categories, rarely capturing the heterogeneity in physiology, morphology and functionality among different fine root orders. Fine roots with different functional roles are rarely separated in microbiome-focused studies and may result in confounding microbial signals and host-filtering across different root microbiome compartments. Using a 26-year-old common garden, we sampled fine roots from four temperate tree species that varied in root morphology and sorted them into absorptive and transportive fine roots. The rhizoplane and rhizosphere were characterized using 16S rRNA gene and internal transcribed spacer region amplicon sequencing and shotgun metagenomics for the rhizoplane to identify potential microbial functions. Fine roots were subject to metabolomics to spatially characterize resource availability. Both fungi and bacteria differed according to root functional type. We observed additional differences between the bacterial rhizoplane and rhizosphere compartments for absorptive but not transportive fine roots. Rhizoplane bacteria, as well as the root metabolome and potential microbial functions, differed between absorptive and transportive fine roots, but not the rhizosphere bacteria. Functional differences were driven by sugar transport, peptidases and urea transport. Our data highlights the importance of root function when examining root-microbial relationships, emphasizing different host selective pressures imparted on different root microbiome compartments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

PAGANI: a parallel adaptive GPU algorithm for numerical integration

We present a new adaptive parallel algorithm for the challenging problem of multi-dimensional numerical integration on massively parallel architectures. Adaptive algorithms have demonstrated the best performance, but efficient many-core utilization is difficult to achieve because the adaptive work-load can vary greatly across the integration space and is impossible to predict a priori. Existing parallel algorithms utilize sequential computations on independent processors, which results in bottlenecks due to the need for data redistribution and processor synchronization. Our algorithm employs a high-throughput approach in which all existing sub-regions are processed and sub-divided in parallel. Repeated sub-region classification and filtering improves upon a brute-force approach and allows the algorithm to make efficient use of computation and memory resources. A CUDA implementation shows orders of magnitude speedup over the fastest open-source CPU method and extends the achievable accuracy for difficult integrands. Our algorithm typically outperforms other existing deterministic parallel methods.

Sakiotis, Ioannis↗

Special Observing Period (SOP) data for the Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP)

The rapid changes occurring in the polar regions require an improved understanding of the processes that are driving these changes. At the same time, increased human activities such as marine navigation, resource exploitation, aviation, commercial fishing, and tourism require reliable and relevant weather information. One of the primary goals of the World Meteorological Organization's Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) project is to improve the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at high latitudes. During YOPP, two Canadian “supersites” were commissioned and equipped with new ground-based instruments for enhanced meteorological and system process observations. Additional pre-existing supersites in Canada, the United States, Norway, Finland, and Russia also provided data from ongoing long-term observing programs. These supersites collected a wealth of observations that are well suited to address YOPP objectives. In order to increase data useability and station interoperability, novel Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs) were created for the seven supersites over two Special Observing Periods (February to March 2018 and July to September 2018). All observations collected at the supersites were compiled into this standardized NetCDF MODF format, simplifying the process of conducting pan-Arctic NWP verification and process evaluation studies. This paper describes the seven Arctic YOPP supersites, their instrumentation, data collection and processing methods, the novel MODF format, and examples of the observations contained therein. MODFs comprise the observational contribution to the model intercomparison effort, termed YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP). All YOPPsiteMIP MODFs are publicly accessible via the YOPP Data Portal (Whitehorse: https://doi.org/10.21343/a33e-j150, Huang et al., 2023a; Iqaluit: https://doi.org/10.21343/yrnf-ck57, Huang et al., 2023b; Sodankylä: https://doi.org/10.21343/m16p-pq17, O'Connor, 2023; Utqiagvik: https://doi.org/10.21343/a2dx-nq55, Akish and Morris, 2023c; Tiksi: https://doi.org/10.21343/5bwn-w881, Akish and Morris, 2023b; Ny-Ålesund: https://doi.org/10.21343/y89m-6393, Holt, 2023; and Eureka: https://doi.org/10.21343/r85j-tc61, Akish and Morris, 2023a), which is hosted by MET Norway, with corresponding output from NWP models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Framework Using Applied Process Analysis Methods to Assess Water Security in the Vu Gia–Thu Bon River Basin, Vietnam

The Vu Gia–Thu Bon (VG–TB) river basin is facing numerous challenges to water security, particularly in light of the increasing impacts of climate change. These challenges, including salinity intrusion, shifts in rainfall patterns, and reduced water supply in downstream areas, are of great concern. This study comprehensively assessed the current state of water security in the basin using robust statistical analysis methods such as the Process Analysis Method (PAM), SMART principle, and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This resulted in the development of a comprehensive assessment framework for water security in the VG–TB river basin. This framework identified five key dimensions, with basin development activities (0.32), the ability to meet water needs (0.24), and natural disaster resilience (0.19) being the most crucial and water resource potential being the least crucial (0.11) according to the AHP methodology. The latter also highlighted 15 indicators, four of which are particularly influential, including waste resources (0.54), flood (0.53), water storage capacity (0.45), and basin governance (0.42). Furthermore, 28 variables with high weight factors were identified. This framework aligns with the UN-Water water security definition and addresses the global water sustainability criteria outlined in Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG6). It enables the computation of a comprehensive Water Security Index (WSI) for specific regions, providing a strong foundation for decision-making and policy formulation. It aims to enhance water security in the context of climate change and support sustainable basin development, thereby guiding future research and policy decisions in water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The value of hydropower flexibility for electricity system decarbonization

Hydropower is an abundant, dispatchable, clean energy resource that will play an important role in supporting the clean energy transition. In particular, dispatchable hydropower can provide the operational flexibility that will be required in future systems with high variable renewable energy penetrations. However, the theoretical operational flexibility of hydropower can be restricted in practice by various non-power constraints. In this paper, we quantify how increasing the operational flexibility of dispatchable hydropower resources with reservoirs impacts least-cost generation portfolios and supports power system decarbonization. Specifically, we conduct a capacity expansion analysis of a two-zone system: a hydro-dominated region and a neighboring region with aggressive decarbonization targets that are represented by the United States Pacific Northwest and California respectively. We then introduce a quantifiable index for characterizing the operational flexibility of reservoir hydropower and assess how changes in this metric impact the system-optimal generation portfolio. We find that increasing hydropower flexibility leads to more investment in wind generation, less investment in natural gas generation, lower system costs, and lower system emissions. We further demonstrate a substitution effect between the grid services provided by flexible hydropower operation, increased transmission capacity on a congested line, and energy storage resources. Finally, we show that increasing the operational flexibility of hydropower increases the effective load carrying capability of both hydropower and wind resources. This research supports a more nuanced understanding of how hydropower can support electricity system decarbonization and may motivate reassessing the cost-benefit tradeoffs of non-power constraints that restrict operational flexibility.

Capacity expansion modeling↗

20% of US electricity from wind will have limited impacts on system efficiency and regional climate

Abstract Impacts from current and future wind turbine (WT) deployments necessary to achieve 20% electricity from wind are analyzed using high resolution numerical simulations over the eastern USA. Theoretical scenarios for future deployments are based on repowering (i.e. replacing with higher capacity WTs) thus avoiding competition for land. Simulations for the contemporary climate and current WT deployments exhibit good agreement with observed electricity generation efficiency (gross capacity factors (CF) from simulations = 45–48%, while net CF for WT installed in 2016 = 42.5%). Under the scenario of quadrupled installed capacity there is a small decrease in system-wide efficiency as indicated by annual mean CF. This difference is approximately equal to that from the two simulation years and may reflect saturation of the wind resource in some areas. WT modify the local near-surface climate in the grid cells where they are deployed. The simulated impact on near-surface climate properties at both the regional and local scales does not increase with increasing WT installed capacity. Climate impacts from WT are modest compared to regional changes induced by historical changes in land cover and to the global temperature perturbation induced by use of coal to generate an equivalent amount of electricity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗

Next-Generation Reverse Logistics Networks of Photovoltaic Recycling: Perspectives and Challenges

With the growing adoption of solar energy as a key component of the global energy transition and its new industrial policy (the Inflation Reduction Act and others), the United States is witnessing a significant increase in solar investments. This surge in installations and domestic and reshored manufacturing of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels brings with it a pressing issue: the proper management of end-of-life (EoL) PV panels. As these panels are decommissioned, either due to reaching the end of their lifespans or due to breakage across the various stages of the forward supply chain, it becomes crucial to establish efficient reverse supply chain logistics systems to address the challenges associated with their disposal, while also unlocking the value of the inherent materials that are of critical value for other forward supply chains. This perspective article examines the challenges regarding EoL PV panels and relevant reverse supply chain and logistics networks, and proposes future research directions based on the gaps observed among academic research, industry, and policy-making challenges. We identify the main bottlenecks and hurdles including, among others, the lack of supportive regulations and absence of structured, optimized recycling infrastructure. To this end, it is proposed that the key to achieving a sustainable reverse supply chain network for solar PV panels lies in relentless end-to-end supply chain cost optimization efforts supported by enabling policies. Moreover, it is proposed that designing systematic decision-making modeling frameworks is vital for examining different possibilities and scenarios for state, region or nation-wide optimization of solar PV reverse supply chain networks. Indicative to this effect, we discuss the development of a Resource-Task-Network (RTN)-based model and demonstrate its application and benefits through a case study. We wrap up with conclusions and future research directions.

circular economy↗