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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Fourier-like Thermal Relaxation of Nanoscale Explosive Hot Spots

Hot spots are local regions of high temperature that are widely considered to govern explosive initiation. Hot spot dynamics rests on a delicate balance between heat generation due to chemical reactions and heat loss through thermal conduction, making accurate determinations of the conductivity under extreme conditions a key component of predictive explosive models. We develop here an approach to directly determine the thermal transport properties of explosive hot spots with realistic initial structures through a combination of molecular dynamics (MD) and diffusive heat equation (HEq) modeling. Effective thermal conductivity values are determined by fitting HEq models to MD predictions of long timescale hot spot relaxation. The approach is applied to model hot spots in the molecular crystalline explosive 1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene (TATB) for a range of shock strengths and two limiting cases for impact orientation. Isotropic and anisotropic HEq models yield similar results, despite TATB exhibiting some of the largest and most anisotropic thermal conductivity values for explosive near normal conditions. The conductivity is found to be a strong function of density, which parametrically captures dependence on temperature, pressure, and material state. The associated root-mean-square errors of the fitted HEq models are approximately 5% of MD predicted final equilibrium temperatures. Here, the conductivity values determined here for TATB hot spots are considerably larger than those used in a prior hot spot criticality study, which may significantly impact predictions for critical hot spot sizes. The approach provides a convenient foundation for determining the effective thermal conductivity for hot spot problems in other explosives and directly yields information on reasonable approximations that might be taken in higher-level models for those materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Novel Machine Learning Method for Surface PM2.5 Estimations from Geostationary Satellites

Particulate matter (PM) with a diameter of less or equal to 2.5 μm, known as PM , affects human health as it penetrates the respiratory system. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) measures the atmospheric concentration of PM using air quality monitors stationed throughout the Continental United States (CONUS). Such measurements are points on a spatial domain and therefore, might not be representative of the air quality at nearby areas considering that the composition of the atmosphere is highly variable from place to place. Satellite based AOD permits a spatially uniform means of estimating PM and new geostationary satellites provide high temporal and spatial resolution estimation of AOD. However, the concentration of PM is non-linearly dependent on other atmospheric parameters that include relative humidity, temperature, and height of the planetary boundary layer. This information may be estimated at similar spatial and temporal resolutions as AOD from numerical modeling such as from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model which resolves near real-time atmospheric conditions over the CONUS. The estimation of PM concentration is a multi-parametric problem that considers the effect of temporal dependencies among the different parameters. Deep learning approaches are appropriate for such complex estimation problems as they intrinsically capture relations among multiple non-linear parameters. This study compares deep-learning methods to traditional regression analysis to demonstrate the capabilities of these methods in predicting PM2.5 concentrations. Additionally, a novel ensemble learning approach is employed to identify scientific processes that could further improve the estimation of PM concentration. Utilizing Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which are suitable for multivariate time series estimation problems as they are capable of learning long-term dependencies, individual models are created for each EPA station and trained on the aforementioned dataset collocated over each station. Individual station models are merged if the model's performance is improved by reducing the root mean squared error (RMSE) metric. This ensemble training method ultimately reduces the RMSE value. Evaluation of these results provide insights into physical processes and related observable parameters that may contribute to PM concentrations. Identified parameters evaluated to be statistically different between the merged and unmerged models are expected to improve overall performance. These new parameters are then utilized for reevaluation of the deep learning methods with an extreme gradient boosting model with an RMSE of 5.5 providing the best results.

George Priftis↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting lake surface water phosphorus dynamics using process-guided machine learning

Phosphorus (P) loading to lakes is degrading the quality and usability of water globally. Accurate predictions of lake P dynamics are needed to understand whole-ecosystem P budgets, as well as the consequences of changing lake P concentrations for water quality. However, complex biophysical processes within lakes, along with limited observational data, challenge our capacity to reproduce short-term lake dynamics needed for water quality predictions, as well as long-term dynamics needed to understand broad scale controls over lake P. Here we use an emerging paradigm in modeling, process-guided machine learning (PGML), to produce a phosphorus budget for Lake Mendota (Wisconsin, USA) and to accurately predict epilimnetic phosphorus over a time range of days to decades. In our implementation of PGML, which we term a Process-Guided Recurrent Neural Network (PGRNN), we combine a process-based model for lake P with a recurrent neural network, and then constrain the predictions with ecological principles. We test independently the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN to evaluate the overall approach. The process-based model accounted for most of the observed pattern in lake P; however it missed the long-term trend in lake P and had the worst performance in predicting winter and summer P in surface waters. The root mean square error (RMSE) for the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN was 33.0 μg P L -1 , 22.7 μg P L -1 , and 20.7 μg P L -1 , respectively. All models performed better during summer, with RMSE values for the three models (same order) equal to 14.3 μg P L -1 , 10.9 μg P L -1 , and 10.7 μg P L -1 . Although the PGRNN had only marginally better RMSE during summer, it had lower bias and reproduced long-term decreases in lake P missed by the other two models. For all seasons and all years, the recurrent neural network had better predictions than process alone, with root mean square error (RMSE) of 23.8 μg P L -1 and 28.0 μg P L -1 , respectively. The output of PGRNN indicated that new processes related to water temperature, thermal stratification, and long term changes in external loads are needed to improve the process model. By using ecological knowledge, as well as the information content of complex data, PGML shows promise as a technique for accurate prediction in messy, real-world ecological dynamics, while providing valuable information that can improve our understanding of process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

New models of Saturn's magnetic field using Pioneer 11 Vector Helium Magnetometer data

In a reanalysis of the Vector Helium Magnetometer data taken by Pioneer 11 during its Saturn encounter in 1979, using improvements in the data set and in the procedures, studies are made of a variety of models. The best is the P(11)84 model, an axisymmetric spherical harmonic model of Saturn's magnetic field within 8 Saturn radii of the planet. The appropriately weighted root mean square average of the difference between the observed and the modeled field is 1.13 percent. For the Voyager-based Z3 model of Connerney, Acuna, and Ness, this average difference from the Pioneer 11 data is 1.81 percent. The external source currents in the magnetopause, tail, bow shock, and perhaps ring currents vary with time and can only be crudely modeled. An algebraic formula is derived for calculating the L shells on which energetic charged particles drift in axisymmetric fields.

Davis, L., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Linking metabolic phenotypes to pathogenic traits among “ Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus” and its hosts

Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas) has been associated with Huanglongbing, a lethal vector-borne disease affecting citrus crops worldwide. While comparative genomics has provided preliminary insights into the metabolic capabilities of this uncultured microorganism, a comprehensive functional characterization is currently lacking. Here, we reconstructed and manually curated genome-scale metabolic models for the six CLas strains A4, FL17, gxpsy, Ishi-1, psy62, and YCPsy, in addition to a model of the closest related culturable microorganism, L. crescens BT-1. Predictions about nutrient requirements and changes in growth phenotypes of CLas were confirmed using in vitro hairy root-based assays, while the L. crescens BT-1 model was validated using cultivation assays. Host-dependent metabolic phenotypes were revealed using expression data obtained from CLas-infected citrus trees and from the CLas-harboring psyllid Diaphorina citri Kuwayama. These results identified conserved and unique metabolic traits, as well as strain-specific interactions between CLas and its hosts, laying the foundation for the development of model-driven Huanglongbing management strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 1 Temperature Re-analysis_Grant Hawkes_Final

Slides for Gas-Cooled Reactor AGR-5/6/7 Thermal Model with Non-Uniform Gas Gaps. Includes investigation of offset through modeling and experimental results, ABAQUS finite element model created for the entire test train, Capsule 1 information, Three irradiation dates to compare the thermal model with the working thermocouples (TCs), Offset distances and direction of offset for the top and bottom of the graphite holder with computer runs, determination of offset by the root mean square error (RMSE) between the TCs and model predtictions, and the results.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Image Discrimination Models Predict Object Detection in Natural Backgrounds

Object detection involves looking for one of a large set of object sub-images in a large set of background images. Image discrimination models only predict the probability that an observer will detect a difference between two images. In a recent study based on only six different images, we found that discrimination models can predict the relative detectability of objects in those images, suggesting that these simpler models may be useful in some object detection applications. Here we replicate this result using a new, larger set of images. Fifteen images of a vehicle in an other-wise natural setting were altered to remove the vehicle and mixed with the original image in a proportion chosen to make the target neither perfectly recognizable nor unrecognizable. The target was also rotated about a vertical axis through its center and mixed with the background. Sixteen observers rated these 30 target images and the 15 background-only images for the presence of a vehicle. The likelihoods of the observer responses were computed from a Thurstone scaling model with the assumption that the detectabilities are proportional to the predictions of an image discrimination model. Three image discrimination models were used: a cortex transform model, a single channel model with a contrast sensitivity function filter, and the Root-Mean-Square (RMS) difference of the digital target and background-only images. As in the previous study, the cortex transform model performed best; the RMS difference predictor was second best; and last, but still a reasonable predictor, was the single channel model. Image discrimination models can predict the relative detectabilities of objects in natural backgrounds.

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Comparative Model Evaluation Studies of Biogenic Trace Gas Fluxes in Tropical Forests

Simulation modeling can play a number of important roles in large-scale ecosystem studies, including synthesis of patterns and changes in carbon and nutrient cycling dynamics, scaling up to regional estimates, and formulation of testable hypotheses for process studies. Recent comparative studies have shown that ecosystem models of soil trace gas exchange with the atmosphere are evolving into several distinct simulation approaches. Different levels of detail exist among process models in the treatment of physical controls on ecosystem nutrient fluxes and organic substrate transformations leading to gas emissions. These differences are is in part from distinct objectives of scaling and extrapolation. Parameter requirements for initialization scalings, boundary conditions, and time-series driven therefore vary among ecosystem simulation models, such that the design of field experiments for integration with modeling should consider a consolidated series of measurements that will satisfy most of the various model requirements. For example, variables that provide information on soil moisture holding capacity, moisture retention characteristics, potential evapotranspiration and drainage rates, and rooting depth appear to be of the first order in model evaluation trials for tropical moist forest ecosystems. The amount and nutrient content of labile organic matter in the soil, based on accurate plant production estimates, are also key parameters that determine emission model response. Based on comparative model results, it is possible to construct a preliminary evaluation matrix along categories of key diagnostic parameters and temporal domains. Nevertheless, as large-scale studied are planned, it is notable that few existing models age designed to simulate transient states of ecosystem change, a feature which will be essential for assessment of anthropogenic disturbance on regional gas budgets, and effects of long-term climate variability on biosphere-atmosphere exchange.

Potter, C. S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Comparison of RESRAD and GoldSim Models for Assessing Radiological Dose for a RCRA Landfill - 20418

US Ecology Idaho (USEI) operates a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Subtitle C, Hazardous Waste Treatment, Storage, and Disposal (TSD) Facility on a 640-acre property in Owyhee County, Idaho. USEI accepts a wide variety of RCRA-exempt low activity radioactive wastes, including naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM) and technologically enhanced NORM (TENORM) (USEI 2009). The performance of the landfill with regard to radiological operating permit requirements was previously assessed using a model constructed with the residual radioactivity (RESRAD) computer program, developed by Argonne National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). RESRAD supports the evaluation of several environmental transport pathways related to a radionuclide-contaminated soil source term, but it was not conceived as a model for the evaluation of landfill radiological performance. A more comprehensive and realistic model is desired in order to better support submissions to both the State of Idaho's Department of Environmental Quality as well as the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. A Performance Assessment (PA) computer model was developed using GoldSim software for the USEI RCRA Subtitle C landfill. The RESRAD computer model was specifically developed for calculating soil cleanup criteria and radiological dose and cancer risk from residual radioactive material in soil. To evaluate site-specific conditions, users may select from among a number of available environmental transport and exposure pathways and modify 'default' parameter values. In GoldSim, a user must construct the model 'from scratch.' However, this modeling is facilitated by a number of specialized elements available in GoldSim to support a radiological mass transport model. These include elements for defining radiological decay and ingrowth, container failure and radiological release, advective and diffusive transport, and other processes. Advantages afforded by the use of RESRAD for modeling radiological dose for a RCRA Subtitle C landfill include ease of use and reasonable flexibility in specifying site-specific conditions. GoldSim allows for considerably more flexibility and site-specificity than RESRAD, including evaluation of potentially relevant environmental transport processes not supported in RESRAD. The probabilistic modeling capabilities of GoldSim also far exceed those of RESRAD. The pros and cons of RESRAD and GoldSim for this modeling problem are explored with a focus on identifying approaches and critical factors in identifying the appropriate platform. The capabilities of RESRAD and GoldSim for mathematically modeling the disposal system will be contrasted and compared. For example, the existing RESRAD radiological safety assessment evaluated potentially complete exposure pathways related to infiltration to groundwater and upwards diffusion of radon. Additional transport pathways identified in the USEI Idaho facility Conceptual Site Model include deposition of radon decay products in cover material, root uptake of radionuclides in disposed wastes by native plants, and mixing of cover material by burrowing animals. Results of the two models and how the different transport and dose pathways affect results will be discussed. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Design of a Molten Salt Flow Cell for Combined Absorbance and Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy for Online Measurements

A novel flow cell allowing for multiple optical spectroscopy measurements on flowing molten salts was designed, and demonstrative calibrations of impurities in aqueous samples were performed. Online compositional measurements of molten salts are of high interest to monitor the state of relevant solar and nuclear systems. Here, the Spectroscopic Configuration for Optical Real-Time Characterization of High-Temperature (SCORCH) fluids cell was designed to meet this need by providing optical access to a high-temperature molten salt sample stream without physical contact between the sample and window materials. Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) was utilized to quantify Li, Cr, Fe, Ni, Sr, and Pr at concentrations ranging nominally from 0 to 315 mmol L −1 . Laser power, frequency, and plasma position were optimized to mitigate challenges associated with sample splashing. Univariate calibration models were built with R 2 > 0.98, percent root mean square error of cross-validation (%RMSECV) as low as 2.7%, and limits of quantification (LOQs) down to 4.1 mmol L −1 . Simultaneously, absorbance calibrations were developed for the applicable analytes (Cr, Ni, and Pr) using Beer’s law with a pathlength of 4.41 ± 0.10 mm. These models provide excellent quantification performance with R 2 > 0.999, %RMSECV as low as 0.6%, and LODs down to 0.08 mmol L −1 . Although these calibrations were performed for each spectroscopic technique separately, the two methods may be combined in the future through multivariate modeling and sensor fusion to provide more robust models with the benefits of both techniques (e.g., absorbance: oxidation state concentrations, LIBS: elemental concentration). Additionally, optimized spectrometers may be deployed to enhance sensitivity.

absorbance spectroscopy↗
NASA NTRS1993

New limb-darkening coefficients for modeling binary star light curves

We present monochromatic, passband-specific, and bolometric limb-darkening coefficients for a linear as well as nonlinear logarithmic and square root limb-darkening laws. These coefficients, including the bolometric ones, are needed when modeling binary star light curves with the latest version of the Wilson-Devinney light curve progam. We base our calculations on the most recent ATLAS stellar atmosphere models for solar chemical composition stars with a wide range of effective temperatures and surface gravitites. We examine how well various limb-darkening approximations represent the variation of the emerging specific intensity across a stellar surface as computed according to the model. For binary star light curve modeling purposes, we propose the use of a logarithmic or a square root law. We design our tables in such a manner that the relative quality of either law with respect to another can be easily compared. Since the computation of bolometric limb-darkening coefficients first requires monochromatic coefficients, we also offer tables of these coefficients (at 1221 wavelength values between 9.09 nm and 160 micrometer) and tables of passband-specific coefficients for commonly used photometric filters.

Van Hamme, W.↗
DOE OSTI2016

TU-FG-BRB-10: A New Approach to Proton Radiography Using the Beamline X-Ray Flat Panel

Purpose: Proton radiography, which images the patients with the same type of particles that they are to be treated with, is a promising approach for image guidance and range uncertainties reduction. This study aimed to realize quality proton radiography by measuring dose rate functions (DRF) in time domain using a single flat panel and retrieve water equivalent path length (WEPL) from them. Methods: An amorphous silicon flat panel (PaxScan™ 4030CB, Varian Medical Systems, Inc., Palo Alto, CA) was placed behind phantoms to measure DRFs from a proton beam modulated by the modulator wheel. To retrieve WEPL and RSP, calibration models based on the intensity of DRFs only, root mean square (RMS) of DRFs only and the intensity weighted RMS were tested. The quality of obtained WEPL images (in terms of spatial resolution and level of details) and the accuracy of WEPL were compared. Results: RSPs for most of the Gammex phantom inserts were retrieved within ± 1% errors by calibration models based on the RMS and intensity weighted RMS. The mean percentage error for all inserts was reduced from 1.08% to 0.75% by matching intensity in the calibration model. In specific cases such as the insert with a titanium rod, the calibration model based on RMS only fails while the that based on intensity weighted RMS is still valid. The quality of retrieved WEPL images were significantly improved for calibration models including intensity matching. Conclusion: For the first time, a flat panel, which is readily available in the beamline for image guidance, was tested to acquire quality proton radiography with WEPL accurately retrieved from it. This technique is promising to be applied for image-guided proton therapy as well as patient specific RSP determination to reduce uncertainties of beam ranges.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting spring green-up across diverse North American grasslands

Vegetation phenology influences many ecosystem and climate processes, such as carbon uptake and energy and water cycles. Thus, understanding drivers of vegetation phenology is crucial for predicting current and future impacts of climate change on ecological systems. Existing models can accurately predict the date of spring green-up in temperate forests but tend to perform poorly in grassland systems. We hypothesize this is because most do not incorporate water availability, a primary limiting factor for grassland plants. In this study, we used long-term datasets of digital imagery from the PhenoCam Network of 43 diverse North American grassland sites (195 site-years) to test existing spring phenology models, as well as develop several new models that incorporate precipitation or soil moisture (53 models). As a result, most of the new models performed substantially better, with the best model requiring sufficient accumulated precipitation followed by warm temperatures to trigger spring onset (root mean square error, RMSE, between predicted and observed dates = 16.0 days). Importantly, the best model performed well across all grassland types using a single set of parameters, from temperate to arid grasslands. Since plants are adapted to their local climates, model performance was further improved when parameters were independently optimized for four separate climate regions (RMSE = 10.4 days). Therefore, both sufficient precipitation and temperature are required for grassland green-up, but optimal thresholds vary by region. Running the top model with projected climate data (representative concentration pathway 8.5) suggests that, depending on the climate region, spring onset will occur up to 12 days earlier within 100 years in temperature-limited sites, but the trend is unclear for precipitation-limited sites (3.5 ± 8.0 days later). This new phenology model improves our ability to understand and predict grassland dynamics, with implications for both current and future ecosystem processes related to carbon and water cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Analysis of rotor vibratory loads using higher harmonic pitch control

Experimental studies of isolated rotors in forward flight have indicated that higher harmonic pitch control can reduce rotor noise. These tests also show that such pitch inputs can generate substantial vibratory loads. The modification is summarized of the RotorCRAFT (Computation of Rotor Aerodynamics in Forward flighT) analysis of isolated rotors to study the vibratory loading generated by high frequency pitch inputs. The original RotorCRAFT code was developed for use in the computation of such loading, and uses a highly refined rotor wake model to facilitate this task. The extended version of RotorCRAFT incorporates a variety of new features including: arbitrary periodic root pitch control; computation of blade stresses and hub loads; improved modeling of near wake unsteady effects; and preliminary implementation of a coupled prediction of rotor airloads and noise. Correlation studies are carried out with existing blade stress and vibratory hub load data to assess the performance of the extended code.

Quackenbush, Todd R.↗
DOE OSTI2016

An improved empirical model of electron and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit based on upstream solar wind conditions

In this study, a new empirical model of the electron fluxes and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) is introduced, based on observations by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) satellites. The model provides flux predictions in the energy range ~1 eV to ~40 keV, as a function of local time, energy, and the strength of the solar wind electric field (the negative product of the solar wind speed and the z component of the magnetic field). Given appropriate upstream solar wind measurements, the model provides a forecast of the fluxes at GEO with a ~1 h lead time. Model predictions are tested against in-sample observations from LANL satellites and also against out-of-sample observations from the Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor II detector on the AMC-12 satellite. The model does not reproduce all structure seen in the observations. However, for the intervals studied here (quiet and storm times) the normalized root-mean-square deviation < ~0.3. It is intended that the model will improve forecasting of the spacecraft environment at GEO and also provide improved boundary/input conditions for physical models of the magnetosphere.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Detailing cloud property feedbacks with a regime-based decomposition

Here, we report diagnosing the root causes of cloud feedback in climate models and reasons for inter-model disagreement is a necessary first step in understanding their wide variation in climate sensitivities. Here we bring together two analysis techniques that illuminate complementary aspects of cloud feedback. The first quantifies feedbacks from changes in cloud amount, altitude, and optical depth, while the second separates feedbacks due to cloud property changes within specific cloud regimes from those due to regime occurrence frequency changes. We find that in the global mean, shortwave cloud feedback averaged across ten models comes solely from a positive within-regime cloud amount feedback countered slightly by a negative within-regime optical depth feedback. These within-regime feedbacks are highly uniform: In nearly all regimes, locations, and models, cloud amount decreases and cloud albedo increases with warming. In contrast, global-mean across-regime components vary widely across models but are very small on average. This component, however, is dominant in setting the geographic structure of the shortwave cloud feedback: Thicker, more extensive cloud types increase at the expense of thinner, less extensive cloud types in the extratropics, and vice versa at low latitudes. The prominent negative extratropical optical depth feedback has contributions from both within- and across-regime components, suggesting that thermodynamic processes affecting cloud properties as well as dynamical processes that favor thicker cloud regimes are important. The feedback breakdown presented herein may provide additional targets for observational constraints by isolating cloud property feedbacks within specific regimes without the obfuscating effects of changing dynamics that may differ across timescales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An integrated metagenomic, metabolomic and transcriptomic survey of Populus across genotypes and environments

Abstract Bridging molecular information to ecosystem-level processes would provide the capacity to understand system vulnerability and, potentially, a means for assessing ecosystem health. Here, we present an integrated dataset containing environmental and metagenomic information from plant-associated microbial communities, plant transcriptomics, plant and soil metabolomics, and soil chemistry and activity characterization measurements derived from the model tree species Populus trichocarpa . Soil, rhizosphere, root endosphere, and leaf samples were collected from 27 different P. trichocarpa genotypes grown in two different environments leading to an integrated dataset of 318 metagenomes, 98 plant transcriptomes, and 314 metabolomic profiles that are supported by diverse soil measurements. This expansive dataset will provide insights into causal linkages that relate genomic features and molecular level events to system-level properties and their environmental influences.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Soil phosphorus drawdown by perennial bioenergy cropping systems in the Midwestern US

Abstract Without fertilization, harvest of perennial bioenergy cropping systems diminishes soil nutrient stocks, yet the time course of nutrient drawdown has not often been investigated. We analyzed phosphorus (P) inputs (fertilization and atmospheric deposition) and outputs (harvest and leaching losses) over 7 years in three representative biomass crops—switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.), miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus ) and hybrid poplar trees ( Populus nigra × P. maximowiczii )—as well as in no‐till corn (maize; Zea mays L.) for comparison, all planted on former cropland in SW Michigan, USA. Only corn received P fertilizer. Corn (grain and stover), switchgrass, and miscanthus were harvested annually, while poplar was harvested after 6 years. Soil test P (STP; Bray‐1 method) was measured in the upper 25 cm of soil annually. Harvest P removal was calculated from tissue P concentration and harvest yield (or annual woody biomass accrual in poplar). Leaching was estimated as total dissolved P concentration in soil solutions sampled beneath the rooting depth (1.25 m), combined with hydrological modeling. Fertilization and harvest were by far the dominant P budget terms for corn, and harvest P removal dominated the P budgets in switchgrass, miscanthus, and poplar, while atmospheric deposition and leaching losses were comparatively insignificant. Because of significant P removal by harvest, the P balances of switchgrass, miscanthus, and poplar were negative and corresponded with decreasing STP, whereas P fertilization compensated for the harvest P removal in corn, resulting in a positive P balance. Results indicate that perennial crop harvest without P fertilization removed legacy P from soils, and continued harvest will soon draw P down to limiting levels, even in soils once heavily P‐fertilized. Widespread cultivation of bioenergy crops may, therefore, alter P balances in agricultural landscapes, eventually requiring P fertilization, which could be supplied by P recovery from harvested biomass.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗