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DOE OSTI2017

Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Regional Climate: Focus on Northern and Tropical African Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

This study advances the practicality and stability of the traditional multivariate statistical method, generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA), for decomposing the key oceanic drivers of regional atmospheric variability, especially when available data records are short. An advanced stepwise GEFA methodology is introduced, in which unimportant forcings within the forcing matrix are eliminated through stepwise selection. Method validation of stepwise GEFA is performed using the CESM, with a focused application to northern and tropical Africa (NTA). First, a statistical assessment of the atmospheric response to each primary oceanic forcing is carried out by applying stepwise GEFA to a fully coupled control run. Then, a dynamical assessment of the atmospheric response to individual oceanic forcings is performed through ensemble experiments by imposing sea surface temperature anomalies over focal ocean basins. Finally, to quantify the reliability of stepwise GEFA, the statistical assessment is evaluated against the dynamical assessment in terms of four metrics: the percentage of grid cells with consistent response sign, the spatial correlation of atmospheric response patterns, the area-averaged seasonal cycle of response magnitude, and consistency in associated mechanisms between assessments. In CESM, tropical modes, namely El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the tropical Indian Ocean Basin, tropical Indian Ocean dipole, and tropical Atlantic Niño modes, are the dominant oceanic controls of NTA climate. In complementary studies, stepwise GEFA is validated in terms of isolating terrestrial forcings on the atmosphere, and observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of NTA climate are extracted to establish an observational benchmark for subsequent coupled model evaluation and development of process-based weights for regional climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Helical-Tip Needle for Transthoracic Percutaneous Image-Guided Biopsy of Lung Tumors: Results of a Pilot Prospective Comparative Study with a Standard Tru-Cut Needle

PurposeTo prospectively evaluate feasibility and diagnostic performance of the 14-gauge helical-tip (Spirotome™, Cook{sup ®} Medical, Bloomington, USA) needle in transthoracic needle biopsy (TTNB) of lung lesions, compared to a conventional 18-gauge Tru-Cut needle.Materials and MethodsStudy was institutional review board approved, with informed consent obtained. Data from synchronous Spirotome and Tru-Cut image-guided TTNB of 20 consecutive patients with malignant peripheral lung tumors larger than 3 cm were enrolled for pathologic characterization and mutational analysis. Samples obtained with Spirotome and Tru-Cut needle were compared for fragmentation, length, weight, morphologic and immunohistochemistry typifying, tumor cellularity (TC) and DNA concentration.ResultsThe technical success rate for TTNB with Spirotome was 100%, and no major complications occurred. Less fragmentation (mean 2 vs. 3 fragments, P = .418), greater weight (mean 13 vs. 8.5 mg, P = .027) and lower length (mean 10.2 vs. 12.6 mm, P = .174) were observed with Spirotome compared to Tru-Cut needle. Accuracy of Spirotome and Tru-Cut needle in defining cancer histotype was similar (90%). Absolute and relative TC (mean 42 vs. 38, 124 vs. 108/10HPF), and DNA concentration (mean 49.6 vs. 39.0 ng/μl) were higher with Spirotome compared to Tru-Cut needle, with no statistical significance (P = .787 and P = .140, respectively).Conclusions Percutaneous 14-gauge Spirotome TTNB of selected lesions is feasible and accurate. It provides adequate samples for diagnosis, comparable to 18-gauge Tru-Cut needle, with a higher amount of tumor tissue (weight, TC, DNA concentration) even in shorter samples.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Atomistic simulations and machine learning of solute grain boundary segregation in Mg alloys at finite temperatures

Understanding solute segregation thermodynamics is the first step in investigating grain boundary (GB) properties, such as strong yttrium (Y) effects on grain growth and texture evolution in micro-scale polycrystalline magnesium (Mg) alloys. To estimate the average GB segregation behavior in low-solute-concentration Mg alloys (e.g., 2 at.% Y), a state-of-the-art spectral approach is applied based on a per-site segregation energy spectrum for Y solute atoms at zero K obtained from molecular statistics (MS) simulations of ~10 4 GB sites in Mg symmetric tilt GBs (STGBs). Although selected MS simulation results are consistent with verification by density functional theory (DFT) calculations, estimates of average segregation tendency based on the zero-K energy spectrum deviate from experimental observations. To resolve this problem, thermodynamic integration (TI) methods based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are used to determine the per-site segregation free energies of Y at representative GB sites, which show contributions beyond harmonic approximations can be important for certain GB sites at high temperatures. A surrogate model of per-site segregation free energy is constructed from a small set of TI data points using stacking cross-validation regressors and physics-informed descriptors. This model is applied to predict the Y segregation free energy spectra for thousands of GB sites in Mg STGBs with uncertainty quantification. Finally, the average segregation tendency predicted by the spectral approach based on the free energy spectra agrees well (within the uncertainty range) with experimental observations for micro-scale polycrystalline Mg alloys at typical thermomechanical processing temperatures (500 ~ 800 K), where thermodynamic equilibrium states are likely to be achieved due to fast diffusion.

Atomistic simulations↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine-Learning-Assisted Synthesis of Polar Racemates

Racemates have recently received attention as nonlinear optical and piezoelectric materials. We report a machine-learning-assisted composition space approach was applied to synthesize the missing M = Ti, Zr members of the Δ,Λ-[Cu(bpy) 2 (H 2 O)] 2 [MF 6 ] 2·3 H 2 O (M = Ti, Zr, Hf; bpy = 2,2'-bipyridine) family (space group: Pna2 1 ). In each (CuO, MO 2 )/bpy/HF(aq) (M = Ti, Zr, Hf) system, the polar noncentrosymmetric racemate (M-NCS) forms in competition with a centrosymmetric one-dimensional chain compound (M-CS) based on alternating Cu(bpy)(H 2 O) 2 2+ and MF 6 2– basic building units (space groups: Ti-CS (Pnma), Zr-CS (P1̅), Hf-CS (P2/n)). Machine learning models were trained on reaction parameters to gain unbiased insight into the underlying statistical trends in each composition space. A human-interpretable decision tree shows that phase selection is driven primarily by the bpy:CuO molar ratio for reactions containing Zr or Hf, and predicts that formation of the Ti-NCS compound requires that the amount of HF present be decreased to raise the pH, which we verified experimentally. Predictive leave-one-metal-out (LOO) models further confirm that behavior in the Ti system is distinct from that of the Zr and Hf systems. The chemical origin of this distinction was probed via fluorine K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy. Pre-edge features in the F1s X-ray absorption spectra reveal the strong ligand-to-metal π bonding between Ti(3d – t 2g ) and F(2p) states that distinguishes the TiF 6 2– anion from the ZrF 6 2– and HfF 6 2– anions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2018

Cross-correlation redshift calibration without spectroscopic calibration samples in DES Science Verification Data

Galaxy cross-correlations with high-fidelity redshift samples hold the potential to precisely calibrate systematic photometric redshift uncertainties arising from the unavailability of complete and representative training and validation samples of galaxies. However, application of this technique in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) is hampered by the relatively low number density, small area, and modest redshift overlap between photometric and spectroscopic samples. We propose instead using photometric catalogs with reliable photometric redshifts for photo-z calibration via cross-correlations. We verify the viability of our proposal using redMaPPer clusters from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) to successfully recover the redshift distribution of SDSS spectroscopic galaxies. We demonstrate how to combine photo-z with cross-correlation data to calibrate photometric redshift biases while marginalizing over possible clustering bias evolution in either the calibration or unknown photometric samples. We apply our method to DES Science Verification (DES SV) data in order to constrain the photometric redshift distribution of a galaxy sample selected for weak lensing studies, constraining the mean of the tomographic redshift distributions to a statistical uncertainty of $\Delta z \sim \pm 0.01$. We forecast that our proposal can in principle control photometric redshift uncertainties in DES weak lensing experiments at a level near the intrinsic statistical noise of the experiment over the range of redshifts where redMaPPer clusters are available. Here, our results provide strong motivation to launch a program to fully characterize the systematic errors from bias evolution and photo-z shapes in our calibration procedure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

On the cosmological evolution of long gamma-ray burst properties

ABSTRACT We examine the relationship between a number of long gamma-ray burst (lGRB) properties (isotropic emitted energy, luminosity, intrinsic duration, jet opening angle) and redshift. We find that even when accounting for conservative detector flux limits, there appears to be a significant correlation between isotropic equivalent energy and redshift, suggesting cosmological evolution of the lGRB progenitor. Analysing a sub-sample of lGRBs with jet opening angle estimates, we find the beaming-corrected lGRB emitted energy does not correlate with redshift, but jet opening angle does. Additionally, we find a statistically significant anticorrelation between the intrinsic prompt duration and redshift, even when accounting for potential selection effects. We also find that, for a given redshift, isotropic energy is positively correlated with intrinsic prompt duration. None of these GRB properties appear to be correlated with galactic offset. From our selection-effect-corrected redshift distribution, we estimate a co-moving rate density for lGRBs, and compare this to the global cosmic star formation rate (SFR). We find the lGRB rate mildly exceeds the global star formation rate between a redshift of 3 and 5, and declines rapidly at redshifts above this (although we cannot constrain the lGRB rate above a redshift of about 6 due to sample incompleteness). We find the lGRB rate diverges significantly from the SFR at lower redshifts. We discuss both the correlations and lGRB rate density in terms of various lGRB progenitor models and their apparent preference for low-metallicity environments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Within-host infectious disease models accommodating cellular coinfection, with an application to influenza

Within-host models are useful tools for understanding the processes regulating viral load dynamics. While existing models have considered a wide range of within-host processes, at their core these models have shown remarkable structural similarity. Specifically, the structure of these models generally consider target cells to be either uninfected or infected, with the possibility of accommodating further resolution (e.g. cells that are in an eclipse phase). Recent findings, however, indicate that cellular coinfection is the norm rather than the exception for many viral infectious diseases, and that cells with high multiplicity of infection are present over at least some duration of an infection. The reality of these cellular coinfection dynamics is not accommodated in current within-host models although it may be critical for understanding within-host dynamics. This is particularly the case if multiplicity of infection impacts infected cell phenotypes such as their death rate and their viral production rates. Here, we present a new class of within-host disease models that allow for cellular coinfection in a scalable manner by retaining the low-dimensionality that is a desirable feature of many current within-host models. The models we propose adopt the general structure of epidemiological ‘macroparasite’ models that allow hosts to be variably infected by parasites such as nematodes and host phenotypes to flexibly depend on parasite burden. Specifically, our within-host models consider target cells as ‘hosts’ and viral particles as ‘macroparasites’, and allow viral output and infected cell lifespans, among other phenotypes, to depend on a cell’s multiplicity of infection. We show with an application to influenza that these models can be statistically fit to viral load and other within-host data, and demonstrate using model selection approaches that they have the ability to outperform traditional within-host viral dynamic models. Important in vivo quantities such as the mean multiplicity of cellular infection and time-evolving reassortant frequencies can also be quantified in a straightforward manner once these macroparasite models have been parameterized. The within-host model structure we develop here provides a mathematical way forward to address questions related to the roles of cellular coinfection, collective viral interactions, and viral complementation in within-host viral dynamics and evolution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of muon antineutrino charged current - 0 meson scattering, using the NOvA Near Detector

Antineutrino interaction cross sections are, at present, poorly constrained, particularly regarding the role of multi-nucleon processes such as 2-particle 2-hole (2p2h) interactions. The associated crosssection systematic uncertainties represent a significant challenge for precision oscillation measurements, especially for the next generation of neutrino experiments such as DUNE. We present a new measurement of the muon antineutrino charged-current cross section without mesons in the final state, using the high-statistics data set of the NOvA Near Detector. The analysis employs a cut-based selection enhanced by machine learning techniques to isolate a high-purity sample dominated by quasielastic (QE) and 2p2h interactions. We present the cross section as a function of the kinetic energy and scattering angle of the outgoing muon. We also present measurements of more model-dependent kinematic variables such as the neutrino energy and momentum transfer, to better probe the underlying nuclear physics. The results are compared against various neutrino event generators to test the robustness of current interaction models.

Vockerodt, Kevin John [Ohio State U.; Queen Mary, ↗

DOE OSTI2018

The Electrochemical Sodiation of Sb Investigated by Operando X-ray Absorption and 121 Sb Mössbauer Spectroscopy: What Does One Really Learn?

In this study, we want to highlight the assets and restrictions of X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) and Mössbauer spectroscopy for investigating the mechanism of the electrochemical reaction of antimony electrode materials vs. Na. For this, operando XAS was carried out during the first one and a half cycles, and the whole set of measured data was analysed using a statistical-chemometric approach, while low temperature Mössbauer spectroscopy measurements were carried out ex situ on selected samples stopped at different points of the electrochemical reaction. Complementary ab initio calculations were performed to support the experimental findings. Both techniques show that, upon the first sodiation, most Sb reacts with Na to form disordered Na 3 Sb. This step is accompanied by the formation of amorphous Sb as an intermediate. Upon inversion of the current Na 3 Sb is desodiated and an amorphous Sb phase, distinct from the pristine bulk Sb state, is gradually formed. However, both XAS and Mössbauer spectroscopy were unable to spot the formation of intermediate Na x Sb phases, which were evinced in previous works by operando Pair Distribution Function analyses. The results shown here clearly assign such failure to the intrinsic inability of both techniques to identify these intermediates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

A validation and code-to-code verification of FAST for a megawatt-scale wind turbine with aeroelastically tailored blades

Abstract. This paper presents validation and code-to-code verification of the latest version of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory wind turbine aeroelastic engineering simulation tool, FAST v8. A set of 1141 test cases, for which experimental data from a Siemens 2.3 MW machine have been made available and were in accordance with the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-13 guidelines, were identified. These conditions were simulated using FAST as well as the Siemens in-house aeroelastic code, BHawC. This paper presents a detailed analysis comparing results from FAST with those from BHawC as well as experimental measurements, using statistics including the means and the standard deviations along with the power spectral densities of select turbine parameters and loads. Results indicate good agreement among the predictions using FAST, BHawC, and experimental measurements. These agreements are discussed in detail in this paper, along with some comments regarding the differences seen in these comparisons relative to the inherent uncertainties in such a model-based analysis.

Guntur, Srinivas↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Validation and Code-to-Code Verification of FAST for a Megawatt-Scale Wind Turbine with Aeroelastically Tailored Blades

This paper presents validation and code-to-code verification of the latest version of the U.S. Department of Energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory wind turbine aeroelastic engineering simulation tool, FAST v8. A set of 1,141 test cases, for which experimental data from a Siemens 2.3 MW machine have been made available and were in accordance with the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-13 guidelines, were identified. These conditions were simulated using FAST as well as the Siemens in-house aeroelastic code, BHawC. This paper presents a detailed analysis comparing results from FAST with those from BHawC as well as experimental measurements, using statistics including the means and the standard deviations along with the power spectral densities of select turbine parameters and loads. Results indicate a good agreement among the predictions using FAST, BHawC, and experimental measurements. Here, these agreements are discussed in detail in this paper, along with some comments regarding the differences seen in these comparisons relative to the inherent uncertainties in such a model-based analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1972

DDP-116 general digital filtering

The methods are described for calibrating, selecting filter weights, filtering, and computing filter response functions. These methods are computed on a statistical analyzer (STAN) system with a Honeywell DDP-116 central processor. The following filter types are computed: all pass, low pass, high pass, band pass, band rejection, and derivative.

Jones, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Omega flight-test data reduction sequence

Computer programs for Omega data conversion, summary, and preparation for distribution are presented. Program logic and sample data formats are included, along with operational instructions for each program. Flight data (or data collected in flight format in the laboratory) is provided by the Ohio University Omega receiver base in the form of 6-bit binary words representing the phase of an Omega station with respect to the receiver's local clock. All eight Omega stations are measured in each 10-second Omega time frame. In addition, an event-marker bit and a time-slot D synchronizing bit are recorded. Program FDCON is used to remove data from the flight recorder tape and place it on data-processing cards for later use. Program FDSUM provides for computer plotting of selected LOP's, for single-station phase plots, and for printout of basic signal statistics for each Omega channel. Mean phase and standard deviation are printed, along with data from which a phase distribution can be plotted for each Omega station. Program DACOP simply copies the Omega data deck a controlled number of times, for distribution to users.

Lilley, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1975

A counter example in linear feature selection theory

The linear feature selection problem in multi-class pattern recognition is described as that of linearly transforming statistical information from n-dimensional (real Euclidean) space into k-dimensional space, while requiring that average interclass divergence in the transformed space decrease as little as possible. Divergence is the expected interclass divergence derived from Hajek two-class divergence; it is known that there always exists a k x n matrix B such that the transformation determined by B maximizes the divergence in k-dimensional space. It is known that, if Q is any k x k invertible matrix, and B is as defined above, then QB again maximizes the divergence in k-space. It is shown that the converse of this result is false: two matrices exist, B sub 1 and B sub 2, each of which maximizes transformed divergence, which are not related in the fashion B sub 2 = QB sub 1 for any k x k matrix Q.

Brown, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Continued implementation and testing of a Neighborhood Office Center (NOC) and integration of the NOC with an administrative correspondence management information system

The concept of decentralized (remote) neighborhood offices, linked together through a self-sustaining communications network for exchanging voice messages, video images, and digital data was quantitatively evaluated. Hardware and procedures for the integrated multifunctional system were developed. The configuration of the neighborhood office center (NOC) is explained, its production statistics given, and an experiment for NOC network integration via satellite is described. The hardware selected for the integration NOC/management information system is discussed, and the NASA teleconferencing network is evaluated.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1981

A statistical data analysis and plotting program for cloud microphysics experiments

The analysis software developed for atmospheric cloud microphysics experiments conducted in the laboratory as well as aboard a KC-135 aircraft is described. A group of four programs was developed and implemented on a Hewlett Packard 1000 series F minicomputer running under HP's RTE-IVB operating system. The programs control and read data from a MEMODYNE Model 3765-8BV cassette recorder, format the data on the Hewlett Packard disk subsystem, and generate statistical data (mean, variance, standard deviation) and voltage and engineering unit plots on a user selected plotting device. The programs are written in HP FORTRAN IV and HP ASSEMBLY Language with the graphics software using the HP 1000 Graphics. The supported plotting devices are the HP 2647A graphics terminal, the HP 9872B four color pen plotter, and the HP 2608A matrix line printer.

Jordan, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A potential-energy scaling model to simulate the initial stages of thin-film growth

A solid on solid (SOS) Monte Carlo computer simulation employing a potential energy scaling technique was used to model the initial stages of thin film growth. The model monitors variations in the vertical interaction potential that occur due to the arrival or departure of selected adatoms or impurities at all sites in the 400 sq. ft. array. Boltzmann ordered statistics are used to simulate fluctuations in vibrational energy at each site in the array, and the resulting site energy is compared with threshold levels of possible atomic events. In addition to adsorption, desorption, and surface migration, adatom incorporation and diffusion of a substrate atom to the surface are also included. The lateral interaction of nearest, second nearest, and third nearest neighbors is also considered. A series of computer experiments are conducted to illustrate the behavior of the model.

Heinbockel, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Final Comparison of TM and MSS Data for Surface Mine Assessment in Logan County, West Virginia

A variety of classifications during both raw and transformed MSS and TM data sets from 4 September 1982 were performed for the Logan County, West Virginia study area. The object was to compare the utility of TM and MSS data for delineating small, irregular ground features, particularly surface mines, and also to test data reduction/transformation techniques (band selection, canonical analysis, and principal components) in relation to a traditional means of unsupervised classification. Statistical results demonstrate that, on the average, the TM classifications yielded an overall .53 factor of improvement relative to the MSS classifications. When the accuracies for only three minor (in terms of areal extent) land use categories are examined, the factor of improvement for TM over MSS increases to 1.48; i.e., the TM is nearly one and one-half times better than the MSS for delineating small and irregular ground features such as contour strip mines.

Witt, R. G.↗