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DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear Trade Atlas 2016-2020

Building on prior work developing a Strategic Trade Atlas promoting understanding of global trade flows of strategic goods, a Nuclear Trade Atlas was developed based on publicly available trade data. The Nuclear Trade Atlas examines trade patterns and trends for seventeen commodities based on a two-step assessment of the trade’s nuclear relevance: first estimating the probability that trade classified under a given Harmonized System (HS) code represents a specific commodity included in the export control lists of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and second estimating the probability that the listed, often dual-use, commodity would be indicative of nuclear use. These estimates combine to provide a measure of the likelihood trade classified under a given HS code may be nuclear relevant. By exclusively focusing on the HS codes most highly ranked by this measure, the resulting data visualizations comprising the Nuclear Trade Atlas provide those responsible for regulating or monitoring nuclear trade greater understanding of relevant global trading patterns and trends. The Atlas includes both commodity- and country-based views of nuclear trade. It is published as a book and as an interactive tool. Besides trade data, the interactive Atlas also includes data about countries’ non-proliferation commitments, allowing users to take this information into consideration while analyzing specific trade flows.

strategic trade, world customs organization, trade↗

DOE OSTI2020

“Third-body” collision parameters for hydrocarbons, alcohols, and hydroperoxides and an effective internal rotor approach for estimating them

Collision rate constants and third-body collision efficiencies are calculated for more than 300 alkanes, alcohols, and hydroperoxides, for the bath gases He, Ar, H 2 , and N 2 , and from 300 to 2000 K. The data set includes highly branched species and species with as many as 16 nonhydrogen atoms N , and it is analyzed to develop strategies for estimating collision properties more generally. Simple analytic formulas describing the Lennard-Jones collision parameters $σ$ and $ε$ are obtained for each of the three classes of systems as a function of N . Trends in the collision efficiency range parameter $α$ = $\langle$Δ E d $\rangle$ are more complicated, and a method is developed and validated for estimating $α$ based on the numbers and types of internal rotors and oxygen-containing groups. Specifically, the approach maps the expected value of $α$ for a branched alkane, alcohol, or hydroperoxide onto those for the corresponding normal (linear) series via an effective number of nonhydrogen atoms N eff . The prescription for N eff is based on counting internal rotor types and is shown to be insensitive to temperature and fairly insensitive to the identity of the bath gas. Together, these strategies allow for the ready estimation of the collision parameters $σ$, $ε$, and $α$ so long as results for the associated linear series are available.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2024

Detection and Socio-Economic Attribution of Groundwater Depletion in India

Groundwater is a critical resource for both consumption and food security in India, where groundwater management faces significant challenges due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. Although several studies explored groundwater variability in India, few have focused on the socioeconomic attribution of these changes, utilizing data from industries, population and water demand. In this study, trends in groundwater storage were examined by leveraging the largest in situ dataset ever collated in India from ~27,000 groundwater wells, satellite-based terrestrial-water-storage estimates, and hydrological model simulations. Five major hotspots of groundwater depletion across India were identified using in situ measurements and previously untapped socioeconomic datasets to attribute these trends. Approximately 16% of Indian groundwater monitoring stations exhibited systematically decreasing trends in groundwater levels. These hotspots are primarily concentrated in the northern and northwestern parts of India as well as in the states of Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, and Kerala. The north/northwestern hotspots have experienced a staggering loss of ~6.46 × 10^10 m3 of water over the past two decades. The factors contributing to this depletion include population growth, rapid urbanization, proliferation of factories and the expansion of agriculture.

Gautam Kunwar↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of a Surface Spill Operation to Return Adult Steelhead Overshoots Downstream of McNary Dam

This study, funded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), was conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate the efficacy of operating one Top Spill Weir (TSW) at McNary Dam outside the normal TSW operation dates for juvenile salmon passage. Of interest is whether the TSW is an effective downstream passage route for adult steelhead overshoots. Overshoots are fish which, having passed upstream at McNary Dam, must pass downstream to return to their natal stream to spawn. This report covers Fall (2019) and Spring (2020) study periods. The study design arranged the available 24 hours of TSW spill per week into weekly blocks with sub-blocks differentiated into day and night operations with TSW discharge periods of 4- and 8-hours duration. Hydroacoustic techniques were used to sample adult fish passage at the TSW and at turbine units 1 and 10. The experimental design contrasted TSW spill periods of differing duration and at different times of the day. The small number of fish detected passing the TSW, and the smaller number of fish detected passing the turbine units, were best suited to an ad hoc, exploratory approach to evaluating the effect of TSW spill. It is worthwhile to note that the operations data obtained for the fall study period had a greater than expected number of gaps and apparent anomalies that we believe were a result of how the data were aggregated. These problems are not particularly problematic for the present study, because the available data still provide a good indication of whether the TSW was operating at each point in time. TSW flows in both fall and spring data sets were able to be cleaned up using the established relationship between forebay elevation and TSW discharge rate. Additional cleanup of operations data would be needed, however, if more quantitative evaluation of dam-wide flow and passage relationships were needed. This study contrasted TSW spill periods of differing duration and at different times of the day. The small number of fish detected passing the TSW, and the smaller number of fish detected passing the turbine units were best suited to an ad hoc, exploratory approach to evaluating the effect of TSW spill. Spring adult steelhead passage numbers estimated using hydroacoustics were notably lower than during the fall study period, and that was consistent with our analysis of PIT tagged fish likely to be in the vicinity during each study period. Detections of fish in BlueView sampling areas upstream of the TSW and powerhouse were not correlated with detections of fish passing hydroacoustic sampling areas, which suggests that fish approaching the face of the dam can move around the forebay before passing. Other fish detected in the forebay in large numbers, such as shad, were able to be filtered out of steelhead passage counts and did not appear to be influencing hydroacoustic passage rate estimates. A pulse of passage at the initial TSW opening was weakly evident, but trends across 4- and 8-hour operational periods did not show a distinct decline in passage over time as TSW operation continued. Our findings do not indicate a reason to choose one 8-hour period over two 4-hour periods, or vice versa. This suggests that the duration of spill periods can be chosen based on operational or other considerations. Passage rates were consistently higher during the daytime TSW discharge periods, relative to nighttime TSW discharge periods. The experimental design of the current study used start times near dawn for day periods and near dusk for night periods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

Trends in aerosol abundances and distributions

The properties of aerosols that reside in the upper atmosphere are described. Special emphasis is given to the influence these aerosols have on ozone observation systems, mainly through radiative effects, and on ambient ozone concentrations, mainly through chemical effects. It has long been appreciated that stratospheric particles can interfere with the remote sensing of ozone distribution. The mechanism and magnitude of this interference are evaluated. Separate sections deal with the optical properties of upper atmospheric aerosols, long-term trends in stratospheric aerosols, perturbations of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions, and estimates of the impacts that such particles have on remotely measured ozone concentrations. Another section is devoted to a discussion of the polar stratospheric clouds (PSC's). These unique clouds, recently discovered by satellite observation, are now thought to be intimately connected with the Antarctic ozone hole. Accordingly, interest in PSC's has grown considerably in recent years. This chapter describes what we know about the morphology, physical chemistry, and microphysics of PSC's.

Turco, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Palinspastic reconstruction of southeastern California and southwestern Arizona for the middle Miocene

A paleogeographic reconstruction of southeastern California and southwestern Arizona at 10 Ma was made based on available geologic and geophysical data. Clockwise rotation of 39 deg was reconstructed in the eastern Transverse Ranges, consistent with paleomagnetic data from late Miocene volcanic rocks, and with slip estimates for left-lateral faults within the eastern Transverse Ranges and NW-trending right lateral faults in the Mojave Desert. This domain of rotated rocks is bounded by the Pinto Mountain fault on the north. In the absence of evidence for rotation of the San Bernardino Mountains or for significant right slip faults within the San Bernardino Mountains, the model requires that the late Miocene Pinto Mountain fault become a thrust fault gaining displacement to the west. The Squaw Peak thrust system of Meisling and Weldon may be a western continuation of this fault system. The Sheep Hole fault bounds the rotating domain on the east. East of this fault an array of NW-trending right slip faults and south-trending extensional transfer zones has produced a basin and range physiography while accumulating up to 14 km of right slip. This maximum is significantly less than the 37.5 km of right slip required in this region by a recent reconstruction of the central Mojave Desert. Geologic relations along the southern boundary of the rotating domain are poorly known, but this boundary is interpreted to involve a series of curved strike slip faults and non-coaxial extension, bounded on the southeast by the Mammoth Wash and related faults in the eastern Chocolate Mountains. Available constraints on timing suggest that Quaternary movement on the Pinto Mountain and nearby faults is unrelated to the rotation of the eastern Transverse Ranges, and was preceded by a hiatus during part of Pliocene time which followed the deformation producing the rotation. The reconstructed Clemens Well fault in the Orocopia Mountains, proposed as a major early Miocene strand of the San Andreas fault, projects eastward towards Arizona, where early Miocene rocks and structures are continuous across its trace. The model predicts a 14 deg clockwise rotation and 55 km extension along the present trace of the San Andreas fault during late Miocene and early Pliocene time. Palinspastic reconstructions of the San Andreas system based on this proposed reconstruction may be significantly modified from current models.

Richard, Stephen M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Unsteady Pressure Measurement on a Simplified High-Lift Configuration of the Common Research Model using Active Flow Control

The High-Lift Common Research Model (CRM-HL) is a product of the NASA Advanced Air Transport Technology (AATT) Project intended to study various high-lift aerodynamic phenomena including enhanced lift, acoustic noise generation, and optimum placement of leading and trailing-edge devices. The current study was conducted in the NASA Langley 14-by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel (14x22) for the purpose of evaluating enhanced lift through the use of active flow control (AFC). The current paper documents the effect of sweeping-jet actuation combined with steady blowing on a simplified high-lift configuration using unsteady pressure measurements. The time-series parameters for the measurements are documented as well as the data acquisition system used to acquire the data. An uncertainty analysis will be presented in order to document the system performance and provide an estimate of the data quality. Repeatability of the data will be shown along with trends associated with model angle of attack, and those associated with changes in the nozzle pressure ratio (NPR) of the AFC system.

Common Research Model↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Unsteady Pressure Measurements on a Simplified High-Lift Configuration of the Common Research Model using Active Flow Control

The High-Lift Common Research Model (CRM-HL) is a product of the NASA Advanced Air Transport Technology (AATT) Project intended to study various high-lift aerodynamic phenomena including enhanced lift, acoustic noise generation, and optimum placement of leading and trailing-edge devices. The current study was conducted in the NASA Langley 14-by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel (14x22) for the purpose of evaluating enhanced lift through the use of active flow control (AFC). The current paper documents the effect of sweeping-jet actuation combined with steady blowing on a simplified high-lift configuration using unsteady pressure measurements. The time-series parameters for the measurements are documented as well as the data acquisition system used to acquire the data. An uncertainty analysis will be presented in order to document the system performance and provide an estimate of the data quality. Repeatability of the data will be shown along with trends associated with model angle of attack, and also those associated with changes in the nozzle pressure ratio (NPR) of the AFC system.

Active Flow Control↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Blast Damage Modeling Uncertainties and Sensitivities

Blast overpressure is the predominant source of ground damage posed by potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. Estimates of the extent, severity, and likelihoods of potential blast damage regions will be one of the key metrics needed to mount civil defense or disaster response plans in the face of an impending impact. However, there are many inherent sources of uncertainty in evaluating the damage, both in characterizing the properties of the incoming object and in the approaches used to model the entry/impact and resulting damage, which make it difficult to produce a single ‘accurate’ or ‘best guess’ prediction of ground damage. The current 2021 PDC hypothetical impact scenario poses a particular challenge due to its short warning time. The need for rapid disaster response to prepare for an immanent impact, combined with lack of observational opportunities to refine basic knowledge about the object’s basic size and properties, make understanding the range and relative likelihood of consequences particularly critical. The potential damage caused by these blasts can be evaluated using a range of modeling and simulation approaches and levels of fidelity. Fast-running engineering-level models can be used to run large numbers of probabilistically sampled cases covering wide variations of uncertain properties or parameters. High-fidelity simulations, on the other hand, can capture more detailed/accurate blast physics, but can only be performed for a small selection of specific cases, requiring many assumptions to be made about the initial object and its unpredictable entry/breakup characteristics. In order to provide a more complete picture of the potential threat for effective disaster response, both types of analysis need to be employed together. In this approach, high-fidelity simulations are used to refine and anchor engineering models, and the probabilistic engineering models are used to evaluate broad parameters spaces and guide selection of the most pertinent simulation cases for a given scenario. This presentation expands upon the probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessments being performed as part of the 2021 PDC hypothetical impact exercise, focusing on key aspects of blast damage modeling uncertainties and sensitivities. We review the current modeling and simulation approaches employed in the current assessment, compare the relative levels of uncertainty stemming from each main element of the problem (i.e., knowledge of the asteroid properties, modeling of the atmospheric entry/breakup and airburst, and estimates of the ground damage from the resulting blasts waves), and highlight any notable trends and sensitivities for the current scenario case.

SMD↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Challenges in Remote-Sensing of Hail: Examining the Performance and Biases of Satellite Hail Retrievals Using Aqua MODIS Visible/IR and AMSR-E Passive-Microwave Observations

Hail poses threats to myriad aspects of human life and society, infrastructure, and agriculture. Scientifically, hail can often cause large errors in precipitation retrieval and estimation, posing challenges to establishing the current climatology of severe storms and their future trend in a changing Earth system. Fortunately, hailstorms exhibit distinct signatures in spaceborne remote-sensing datasets (e.g. overshooting cloud tops in visible/IR, or brightness temperature depressions in passive-microwave imagery). Approaches that leverage these signatures, however, are not without their pitfalls,: passive-microwave channels have large footprints and exhibit non-uniform beam filling. Visible/IR instruments have fine horizontal resolution but are limited by their insensitivity to processes occurring below cloud top. Large horizontal areas of smaller scatterers may also meaningfully lower the brightness temperatures, especially if they are able to occupy large portions of the footprint. Radiative transfer simulations show that low frequencies such as 19- and 37-GHz can be scattered to extremely low brightness temperatures by high concentrations of smaller (graupel-sized) ice scatterers, especially in larger features that are more likely to occupy the footprint, which may cause climatologies to overestimate the frequency severe hail. To address this, we investigate the nearly simultaneous and colocated MODIS (visible/IR) and AMSR-E (passive-microwave) onboard the Aqua satellite to leverage both datasets together, pairing AMSR-E and MODIS signatures of severe convection with ground-based weather radar, severe weather reports, and environmental parameters defined by the MERRA-2 reanalysis over CONUS, and then explore the performance and challenges of the algorithm when we expand outside the United States into six different geographical regimes throughout the Aqua domain.

Sarah D Bang↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ice Sheet and Ice Shelf Freshwater Forcing of the NASA GISS ModelE GCM

Recent mass loss from ice sheets and ice shelves is now persistent and prolonged enough that it impacts downstream oceanographic conditions. To demonstrate this, we use an ensemble of coupled GISS-E2.1-G (a CMIP6 model) simulations forced with historical estimates of anomalous freshwater, in addition to other climate forcings, from 1990 through 2019. In this ensemble there are detectable differences in zonal-mean sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice in the Southern Ocean, and in regional sea level around Antarctica and in the western North Atlantic. These impacts mostly improve the model's representation of historical changes, including reversing the forced trends in Southern Ocean surface temperature and Antarctic sea ice. The changes in SST may have implications for estimates of the SST pattern effect on climate sensitivity and for cloud feedbacks. We conclude that the changes are sufficiently large that model groups should strive to include more accurate estimates of these drivers in all-forcing historical simulations in future coupled model intercomparisons.

Ice sheet↗

DOE OSTI2026

Accelerated Carbon and Water Cycles in the Amazon and Congo Basins Revealed From TRENDY Models and Remote Sensing Products

Tropical forests play a vital role in the global carbon cycle and land–atmosphere interactions. Estimating tropical forest carbon–water dynamics is challenging due to observational and modeling uncertainties. This study leverages the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project models and satellite observations to assess changes (2003–2021) in vegetation carbon, gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and net biosphere production (NBP) in the Amazon and Congo. Atmospheric CO 2 , climate variability, and land use and land cover changes constrain these variables between 1700 and 2021 with the overall increasing trends of carbon stock and fluxes. The models overestimate vegetation carbon and GPP, while ET and NBP are consistent with observations. Fire-activated models predict lower values for vegetation carbon and GPP, ET, and NBP, aligning more closely with observations. The higher ET from fire-activated models may result from enhanced soil evaporation due to increased canopy openings. Fire-inactivated models could well estimate the magnitudes of NBP. The high vegetation carbon in nitrogen-enabled models points to simulation uncertainties and imbalance in model numbers regarding the nitrogen cycle. Although the nitrogen cycle enhances water use efficiency in both the Amazon and Congo, the models show a higher sensitivity to the nitrogen cycle in the Congo. This study highlights the challenges in accurately representing tropical biogeochemical cycles and the values of satellite products in model evaluations, underscoring the need for standard modeling protocols that address biogeochemical components (e.g., nutrient cycles) to better resolve process-based representations.

Shi, Mingjie [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

NASA NTRS1979

Forest Classification and Inventory System using Landsat, digital terrain, and ground sample data

Accurate timber inventory data for cost-effective forest management is the primary goal of a Forest Classification and Inventory System (FOCIS) designed to provide estimates of timber volume by species aggregated by compartments, townships, or other spatial management units. FOCIS uses Landsat spectral data, including a synthesized texture channel, and Forest Service ground sample data to produce timber volume-homogeneous classes through a two-step unsupervised clustering process. Registered digital terrain data, including derived slope angle and slope aspect channels, are used to predict species proportions through a trend surface model, again using ground sample data for model calibration. In the final stage of FOCIS, volume estimates and predicted species proportions are merged and aggregated to yield timber volumes by species within management areas.

Strahler, A. H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Novel 2D velocity estimation method for large transient events in plasmas

Dynamics of fast transient events are challenging to be analyzed with high time resolution. Such events can occur in fusion plasmas such as the filaments during edge-localized modes (ELMs). Here, we present a robust method—the spatial displacement estimation—for estimating the displacements of structures with fast dynamics from high spatial and time resolution imaging diagnostics [e.g., gas-puff imaging (GPI)] with sampling time temporal resolution. First, a background suppression method is shown, which suppresses the slowly time-evolving and spatially non-uniform background in the signal. In the second step, a two-dimensional polynomial trend subtraction method is presented to tackle the remaining polynomial order trend in the signal. After performing these pre-processing steps, the spatial displacement of the propagating structure is estimated from the two-dimensional spatial cross-correlation coefficient function calculated between consecutive frames. The method is tested for its robustness and accuracy by simulated Gaussian events and spatially displaced random noise. An example application of the method is presented on propagating ELM filaments measured by the GPI system on the National Spherical Torus Experiment spherical tokamak.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2001

Response to Comment on "Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?"

In his comment on Lindzen et al., Harrison found that the amount of high-level clouds, A, and the sea-surface temperature beneath clouds, T, averaged over a large oceanic domain in the western Pacific have secular linear trends of opposite signs over a period of 20 months. He found that when the linear trends are subtracted from the data, the correlation between the residual A and T is much reduced. His estimates of the confidence levels for the correlation indicate, moreover, that this correlation is not statistically significant. The domain-averaged A and, to a lesser degree, T, have distinct intra-seasonal and seasonal variations. These variations are influenced by the large-scale wind and temperature distributions and by the seasonal variation of insolation. To separate the local effect from the effect of slowly changing large-scale conditions, rather than subtracting 20-month linear trends from the series, which has the potential to spuriously extrapolate intra-seasonal and seasonal variations to even longer time scales, we subtracted 30-day running means of A and T from each time series; in effect, the data were high-pass filtered. The number of points (days), N, is reduced by this process from the original value of 510 to 480.

Bell, Thomas L.↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Dangers of Parametrics

Building a parametric cost model is hard work. The data is noisy and often does not behave like we want it to. We need statistics to give us an indication of the goodness of our models, but; statistics can be manipulated and mislead. On top of all of that, our own very human biases can lead us astray; causing us to see patterns in the noise and draw false conclusions from the data. Yet, it is the data itself that is the foundation for making better cost estimates and cost models. I believe the mistake we often make is we believe that our models are representative of the data; that our models summarize the experiences, the knowledge, and the stories contained in the data. However, it is the opposite that is true. Our models are but imitations of reality. They give us trends, but not truth. The experiences, the knowledge, and the stories that we need in order to make good cost estimates is bound up in the data. You cannot separate good cost estimating from a knowledge of the historical data. One final thought. It is our attempts to make sense out of the randomness that leads us astray. In order to make progress as cost modelers and cost estimators, we must accept that there are real limitations on our ability to model the past and predict the future. I do not believe we should throw up our hands and say this is the best we can do. Rather, to see real improvement we must first recognize these limitations, avoid the easy but misleading solutions, and seek to find ways to better model the world we live in. I don't have any simple solutions. Perhaps the answers lie in better data or in a totally different approach to simulating how the world works. All I know is that we must do our best to speak truth to ourselves and our customers. Misleading ourselves and our customers will, in the end, result in an inability to have a positive impact on those we serve.

Prince, Frank A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Dangers of Parametrics

Prince, Frank A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emerging Trends and Technologies Used for the Identification, Detection, and Characterisation of Plant-Parasitic Nematode Infestation in Crops

Accurate identification and estimation of the population densities of microscopic, soil-dwelling plant-parasitic nematodes (PPNs) are essential, as PPNs cause significant economic losses in agricultural production systems worldwide. This study presents a comprehensive review of emerging techniques used for the identification of PPNs, including morphological identification, molecular diagnostics such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR), high-throughput sequencing, meta barcoding, remote sensing, hyperspectral analysis, and image processing. Classical morphological methods require a microscope and nematode taxonomist to identify species, which is laborious and time-consuming. Alternatively, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) has emerged as a reliable and efficient approach for PPN identification and quantification; however, the cost associated with the reagents, instrumentation, and careful optimisation of reaction conditions can be prohibitive. High-throughput sequencing and meta-barcoding are used to study the biodiversity of all tropical groups of nematodes, not just PPNs, and are useful for describing changes in soil ecology. Convolutional neural network (CNN) methods are necessary to automate the detection and counting of PPNs from microscopic images, including complex cases like tangled nematodes. Remote sensing and hyperspectral methods offer non-invasive approaches to estimate nematode infestations and facilitate early diagnosis of plant stress caused by nematodes and rapid management of PPNs. This review provides a valuable resource for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers involved in nematology and plant protection. It highlights the importance of fast, efficient, and robust identification protocols and decision-support tools in mitigating the impact of PPNs on global agriculture and food security.

Plant Sciences↗