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NASA NTRS1988

Variations of total ozone in the north polar region as seen by TOMS

Data from the TOMS instrument has been used to follow the course of development of the Antarctic ozone springtime minimum since 1979. Addressed is the question of possible north polar region changes which might be deduced from the nine years of TOMS measurements of total ozone. Total ozone is a much more variable quantity in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. This makes the search for trends more difficult and the interpretation of results more uncertain. The 9-yr time series of TOMS data at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere is examined. Because the TOMS measurements have drifted by 3 to 4 percent with respect to closely collocated Dobson measurements, it was chosen in this study to adopt the Dobson normalization and adjust the TOMS measurements accordingly. The difference between the last two years (1986 and 1987) of the TOMS record, and the first two years of the record (1979 and 1980) are shown. The difference in percent is given as a function of latitude and time of year. The Antarctic springtime decrease is clearly seen as well as a smaller change which extends to about 50 degrees south latitude at all seasons. Changes in the Northern Hemisphere are less dramatic and are concentrated near the polar night where solar zenith angles are very large. These data are now being examined in more detail and updated results will be presented at the Workshop.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Preliminary estimates of galactic cosmic ray shielding requirements for manned interplanetary missions

Estimates of radiation risk to the blood forming organs from galactic cosmic rays are presented for manned interplanetary missions. The calculations use the Naval Research Laboratory cosmic ray spectrum model as input into the Langley Research Center galactic cosmic ray transport code. This transport code, which transports both heavy ions and nucleons, can be used with any number of layers of target material, consisting of up to five different constituents per layer. Calculated galactic cosmic ray doses and dose equivalents behind various thicknesses of aluminum and water shielding are presented for solar maximum and solar minimum periods. Estimates of risk to the blood forming organs are made using 5 cm depth dose/dose equivalent values for water. These results indicate that at least 5 g/sq cm (5 cm) of water of 6.5 g/sq cm (2.4 cm) of aluminum shield is required to reduce annual exposure below the current recommended limit of 50 rem. Because of the large uncertainties in fragmentation parameters, and the input cosmic ray spectrum, these exposure estimates may be uncertain by as much as 70 percent. Therefore, more detailed analyses with improved inputs could indicate the need for additional shielding.

Townsend, Lawrence W.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Approximate spatial reasoning

Much of human reasoning is approximate in nature. Formal models of reasoning traditionally try to be precise and reject the fuzziness of concepts in natural use and replace them with non-fuzzy scientific explicata by a process of precisiation. As an alternate to this approach, it has been suggested that rather than regard human reasoning processes as themselves approximating to some more refined and exact logical process that can be carried out with mathematical precision, the essence and power of human reasoning is in its capability to grasp and use inexact concepts directly. This view is supported by the widespread fuzziness of simple everyday terms (e.g., near tall) and the complexity of ordinary tasks (e.g., cleaning a room). Spatial reasoning is an area where humans consistently reason approximately with demonstrably good results. Consider the case of crossing a traffic intersection. We have only an approximate idea of the locations and speeds of various obstacles (e.g., persons and vehicles), but we nevertheless manage to cross such traffic intersections without any harm. The details of our mental processes which enable us to carry out such intricate tasks in such apparently simple manner are not well understood. However, it is that we try to incorporate such approximate reasoning techniques in our computer systems. Approximate spatial reasoning is very important for intelligent mobile agents (e.g., robots), specially for those operating in uncertain or unknown or dynamic domains.

Dutta, Soumitra↗

NASA NTRS1988

Remote chance of recontact

The ejection of appendages with uncertain drag characteristics presents a concern for eventual recontact. Recontact shortly after release can be prevented by avoiding ejection in a plane perpendicular to the velocity. For ejection tangential to the orbit, the likelihood of recontact within a year is high in the absence of drag and oblateness. The optimum direction of ejection of the thermal shield cable and an overestimate of the recontact probability are determined for the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) mission when drag, oblateness, and solar/lunar perturbations are present. The probability is small but possibly significant.

Elkin, D.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Research on blackboard architectures at the Heuristic Programming Project (HPP)

Researchers are entering the second decade of research in the Blackboard problem solving framework with focus in the following areas: (1) extensions to the basic concepts implemented in AGE-1 to address, for example, reasoning with uncertain data; (2) a new architecture and development environment, BB1, that implements methods for explicity controlling the reasoning; and (3) the design of and experimentation with multiprocessor architectures using the Blackboard as an organizing framework. A summary of these efforts is presented.

Nii, H. Penny↗

NASA NTRS1988

CCD scanning for comets and asteroids

Some populations of objects in the solar system are still poorly known, and the long-range goal of this program is to improve that situation. For instance, the statistics of Trojan asteroids are uncertain, while previous serveying indicates there is an appreciable systematic difference between the L-4 and L-5 regions, which is hard to explain. Researchers are developing for this goal a new technique of sky surveillance, namely scanning with a charge coupled device (CCD). With its quantum efficiency and wavelength range greater than that of photographic plates, the CCD should be especially valuable for fast-moving objects such as near-Earth asteroids. A 320 x 512 pixel CCD has been in operation since 1983 on a telescope that is dedicated during the dark half of each month to sky surveillance, that is the Spacewatch Telescope which is the 91-cm Newtonian reflector of the Steward Observatory on Kitt Peak. The system was found to be of special value for astrometry. The telescope drive is turned off at a selected distance west of the object and the scan is continued such that the number of astrometric standards is optimized. Because the drive is off, the effects of refraction practically vanish.

Gehrels, Tom↗

NASA NTRS1989

A proposed non-intrusive method for finding coefficients of slip and molecular reflectivity in microgravity

A proposed experimental program to look at a series of vapor transport properties measured along solid and liquid surfaces is described. The research objectives proposed are: (1) with accuracy otherwise unobtainable on ground, to determine the coefficient of slip measured between gases and the surfaces of liquids and solids; (2) for the first time, to classify and tabulate dominant surface effects found for a variety of solids, particularly those crystalized by vapor transport; and (3) to extend understanding of settling rates predicted for cosmic dust and condensed vapor falling through planetary atmospheres. The method used to obtain these objectives, has aided, to an order of magnitude, understanding of various liquid-gas interfaces such as oil and water. But to date, no similar characterization has proved successful for solids or liquids of uncertain densities. Likewise, no data exist in either ground-based research or as part of a microgravity program that, when collected with the high accuracy expected in low gravity, could definitely settle outstanding questions in kinetic theory, molecular dynamics, and cosmic physics.

Noever, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1988

The possible contamination of Jupiter

The Galileo probe, though at present its future is uncertain, would, if not sterilized, represent a good chance of contaminating Jupiter. Most scientists opposed to sterilizing the probe argue that to order the probe sterilized would be the death of the project, since sterilization would entail a reconstruction of the probe, and there are not enough funds to accomplish this. These scientists, however, are ignoring a relatively simple and inexpensive alternative to the traditional heat sterilization method. The main threat of contamination comes from Galileo's exterior surfaces: the shell of the probe and its parachute. The probe innermost components would not represent a threat since the probe is sealed. In light of the fact that only the exterior of Galileo would have to be sterilized, heat would not have to be used as a method of sterilization. Instead, various gas mixtures could be sprayed entirely over the probe and its parachute, gases which would kill any and all bacteria. This idea is more thoroughly examined.

Garcia, Joe↗

NASA NTRS1988

Disruption of giant comets in the solar system and around other stars

In a standard cometary mass distribution (dN/dM) alpha M(-a), a = 1.5 to 2.0) most of the mass resides in the largest comets. The maximum mass M sub max for which this distribution holds uncertain but there are theoretical and observational indications that M sub max is at least approx. 10(23)g. Chiron, although formally classified as an asteroid, is most likely a giant comet in this mass range. Its present orbit is unstable and it is expected to evolve into a more typical short period comet orbit on a timescale of approx. 10(6) to 10(7)yr. The breakup of a chiron-like comet of mass approx. 10(23)g could in principle produce approx. 10(5) Halley-size comets, or a distribution with an even larger number. If a giant comet was in a typical short period comet orbit, such a breakup could result in a relatively brief comet shower (duration approx. less than 10(6)yr) with some associated terrestrial impacts. However, the most significant climatic effects may not in general be due to the impacts themselves but to the greatly enhanced zodiacal dust cloud in the inner Solar System. (Although this is probably not the case for the unique K-T impact). Researchers used a least Chi square program with error analysis to confirm that the 2 to 5 micrometer excess spectrum of Giclas 29 to 38 can be adequately fitted with either a disk of small inefficient (or efficient) grains or a single temperature black body. Further monitoring of this star may allow discrimination between these two models.

Whitmire, D. P.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Analysis and use of VAS satellite data

Four interrelated investigations have examined the analysis and use of VAS satellite data. A case study of VAS-derived mesoscale stability parameters suggested that they would have been a useful supplement to conventional data in the forecasting of thunderstorms on the day of interest. A second investigation examined the roles of first guess and VAS radiometric data in producing sounding retrievals. Broad-scale patterns of the first guess, radiances, and retrievals frequently were similar, whereas small-scale retrieval features, especially in the dew points, were often of uncertain origin. Two research tasks considered 6.7 micron middle tropospheric water vapor imagery. The first utilized radiosonde data to examine causes for two areas of warm brightness temperature. Subsidence associated with a translating jet streak was important. The second task involving water vapor imagery investigated simulated imagery created from LAMPS output and a radiative transfer algorithm. Simulated image patterns were found to compare favorably with those actually observed by VAS. Furthermore, the mass/momentum fields from LAMPS were powerful tools for understanding causes for the image configurations.

Fuelberg, Henry E.↗

NASA NTRS1989

An interpretation and solution of ill-conditioned linear equations

Data insufficiency, poorly conditioned matrices and singularities in equations occur regularly in complex optimization, correlation, and interdisciplinary model studies. This work concerns itself with two methods of obtaining certain physically realistic solutions to ill-conditioned or singular algebraic systems of linear equations arising from such studies. Two efficient computational solution procedures that generally lead to locally unique solutions are presented when there is insufficient data to completely define the model, or a least-squares error formulation of this system results in an ill-conditioned system of equations. If it is assumed that a reasonable estimate of the uncertain data is available in both cases cited above, then we shall show how to obtain realistic solutions efficiently, in spite of the insufficiency of independent data. The proposed methods of solution are more efficient than singular-value decomposition for dealing with such systems, since they do not require solutions for all the non-zero eigenvalues of the coefficient matrix.

Ojalvo, I. U.↗

NASA NTRS1988

The interpretation of data from the Viking Mars Atmospheric Water Detectors (MAWD): Some points for discussion

Properly interpreted, water vapor column abundance measurements can provide important insights into many of the processes that govern the diurnal, seasonal, and climatic cycles of atmospheric water on Mars. The uncertain distribution of water vapor complicates this analysis. It is argued that if a significant fraction of the total atmospheric vapor content is concentrated within the lowermost scale height, then the hemispheric asymmetry in zonally averaged topography/air mass might itself explain the observed gradient in the annual and zonally averaged vapor abundance.

Clifford, Stephen M.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Certainty grids for mobile robots

A numerical representation of uncertain and incomplete sensor knowledge called Certainty Grids has been used successfully in several mobile robot control programs, and has proven itself to be a powerful and efficient unifying solution for sensor fusion, motion planning, landmark identification, and many other central problems. Researchers propose to build a software framework running on processors onboard the new Uranus mobile robot that will maintain a probabilistic, geometric map of the robot's surroundings as it moves. The certainty grid representation will allow this map to be incrementally updated in a uniform way from various sources including sonar, stereo vision, proximity and contact sensors. The approach can correctly model the fuzziness of each reading, while at the same time combining multiple measurements to produce sharper map features, and it can deal correctly with uncertainties in the robot's motion. The map will be used by planning programs to choose clear paths, identify locations (by correlating maps), identify well-known and insufficiently sensed terrain, and perhaps identify objects by shape. The certainty grid representation can be extended in the same dimension and used to detect and track moving objects.

Moravec, H. P.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Reasoning and planning in dynamic domains: An experiment with a mobile robot

Progress made toward having an autonomous mobile robot reason and plan complex tasks in real-world environments is described. To cope with the dynamic and uncertain nature of the world, researchers use a highly reactive system to which is attributed attitudes of belief, desire, and intention. Because these attitudes are explicitly represented, they can be manipulated and reasoned about, resulting in complex goal-directed and reflective behaviors. Unlike most planning systems, the plans or intentions formed by the system need only be partly elaborated before it decides to act. This allows the system to avoid overly strong expectations about the environment, overly constrained plans of action, and other forms of over-commitment common to previous planners. In addition, the system is continuously reactive and has the ability to change its goals and intentions as situations warrant. Thus, while the system architecture allows for reasoning about means and ends in much the same way as traditional planners, it also posseses the reactivity required for survival in complex real-world domains. The system was tested using SRI's autonomous robot (Flakey) in a scenario involving navigation and the performance of an emergency task in a space station scenario.

Georgeff, M. P.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Algorithms for adaptive control of two-arm flexible manipulators under uncertainty

A nonlinear extension of model reference adaptive control (MRAC) technique is used to guide a double arm nonlinearizable robot manipulator with flexible links, driven by actuators collocated with joints subject to uncertain payload and inertia. The objective is to track a given simple linear and rigid but compatible dynamical model in real, possible stipulated time and within stipulated degree of accuracy of convergence while avoiding collision of the arms. The objective is attained by a specified signal adaptive feedback controller and by adaptive laws, both given in closed form. A case of 4 DOF manipulator illustrates the technique.

Skowronski, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

On the development of a reactive sensor-based robotic system

Flexible robotic systems for space applications need to use local information to guide their action in uncertain environments where the state of the environment and even the goals may change. They have to be tolerant of unexpected events and robust enough to carry their task to completion. Tactical goals should be modified while maintaining strategic goals. Furthermore, reactive robotic systems need to have a broader view of their environments than sensory-based systems. An architecture and a theory of representation extending the basic cycles of action and perception are described. This scheme allows for dynamic description of the environment and determining purposive and timely action. Applications of this scheme for assembly and repair tasks using a Universal Machine Intelligence RTX robot are being explored, but the ideas are extendable to other domains. The nature of reactivity for sensor-based robotic systems and implementation issues encountered in developing a prototype are discussed.

Hexmoor, Henry H.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Construction and analysis of simulated Venera and Magellan images of Venus

The 1-3 km resolution Venera 15 and 16 images of Venus and the expected 120-300 m resolution Magellan mission image data are presently simulated through a digital processing of Seasat radar images covering a desert dune complex in the Gran Desierto of Sonora, accreted terranes in the central interior of Alaska, and the Appalachian Valley and Ridge Province. The simulations suggest that the nature and extent of terrain modification on Venus by such exogenic processes as atmosphere-surface weathering, erosion, and deposition, will remain uncertain, since the length scale of features indicative of such processes may be too small to be discerned from Venera data; Magellan data may provide this critical fine-scale morphological data, however, and thereby allow the testing of the two competing resurfacing scenarios.

Arvidson, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Occultation evidence for an atmosphere on Pluto

Observations from different sources of Pluto occulting a 12th-magnitude star indicate an extended atmosphere around the planet. Here, data obtained from the 1 m telescope at the University of Tasmania, Hobart are interpreted in terms of a theory for occultation by an atmosphere whose thickness is comparable to the planetary radius. The data can be satisfactorily fitted with a methane atmosphere at plausible pressures and temperatures. The surface pressures inferred from this single chord are uncertain by an order of magnitude, but are consistent with spectroscopic constraints.

Hubbard, W. B.↗