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At least 541 records · Page 30

Quantifying direct yield benefits of soil carbon increases from cover cropping

Cropland management practices that restore soil organic carbon (SOC) are increasingly presented as climate solutions that also enhance yields. But how often these benefits align at the farm level—the scale of farmers’ decision making—remains uncertain. Here we examined concurrent SOC and yield responses to cover cropping, including their direct connection, with a global meta-analysis. Cover cropping simultaneously increased yields and SOC in 59.7% of 434 paired observations. Increases in SOC directly increased crop yields in soils with initial SOC concentrations below 11.6 g kg-1; for example, a change from 5 g kg -1 to 6 g kg -1 increased yields by +2.4%. These yield benefits of SOC did not decline as nitrogen inputs increased or when legume cover crops were used, suggesting fertility inputs cannot substitute for SOC effects. Regardless of direct effects of SOC increases on yields, integrating legume cover crops into systems with simplified rotations or with nitrogen inputs < 157 kg ha -1 season -1 N led to the largest yield increases (up to +24.3%), with legumes also increasing SOC more than non-legumes (up to +1.5 g kg -1 ). By simultaneously increasing yields and SOC, cover cropping provides an opportunity to benefit both food security and climate, including via direct yield benefits from SOC increases on low carbon soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585)—explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections—before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

Jagermeyr, Jonas↗

Mechanisms of tropical Pacific decadal variability

Naturally occurring tropical Pacific variations at timescales of 7–70 years — tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) — describe basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST), sea-level pressure and heat content anomalies. Several mechanisms are proposed to explain TPDV, which can originate through oceanic processes, atmospheric processes or as an El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) residual. In this Review, we synthesize knowledge of these mechanisms, their characteristics and contribution to TPDV. Oceanic processes include off-equatorial Rossby waves, which mediate oceanic adjustment and contribute to variations in equatorial thermocline depth and SST; variations in the strength of the shallow upper-ocean overturning circulation, which exhibit a large anti-correlation with equatorial Pacific SST at interannual and decadal timescales; and the propagation of salinity-compensated temperature (spiciness) anomalies from the subtropics to the equatorial thermocline. Atmospheric processes include midlatitude internal variability leading to tropical and subtropical wind anomalies, which result in equatorial SST anomalies and feedbacks that enhance persistence; and atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic and Indian Ocean SST variability, which induce winds conducive to decadal anomalies of the opposite sign in the Pacific. Although uncertain, the tropical adjustment through Rossby wave activity is likely a dominant mechanism. Finally, a deeper understanding of the origin and spectral characteristics of TPDV-related winds is a key priority.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Equilibrium and non-equilibrium effects in high pressure phase transformations of carbon

The behavior of carbon in the range 1–100 GPa and 1–10 kK is central to problems in planetary interiors, inertial confinement fusion targets, and high-pressure synthesis of carbon-based materials, but experiments in this regime are difficult and often provide only indirect constraints on phase behavior. As a result, phase boundary loci, structure, and limits of metastability at high pressure remain uncertain. In this work, machine-learning enhanced atomistic simulations are used to address this knowledge gap. We determine the melt line up to 100 GPa, the graphite-diamond phase boundary up to the melt line, and analyze structure of the coexisting phases. We show that the coexisting liquid evolves smoothly with pressure without evidence for a first-order liquid–liquid transition. Orientation-resolved graphite melting simulations indicate that basal-plane interfaces develop a dewetting layer and undergo layer-by-layer melting, producing kinetic hysteresis and an apparent orientation dependence of the melt line. Non-equilibrium quenches from the melt are used to construct a kinetically limiting graphite–diamond phase boundary for rapid quenches from above the melt line, and show that graphite is metastable at pressures of up to ≈ 25 GPa. These results provide bounds on equilibrium and metastable behavior in carbon relevant for interpreting high-pressure experiments and for designing synthesis pathways to specific carbon microstructures.

Lyu, Yanjun [Department of Materials Science and E↗

Upper troposphere dust belt formation processes vary seasonally and spatially in the Northern Hemisphere

Dust aerosols impact global energy balance substantially by acting as efficient ice nuclei to alter cold cloud properties. However, the estimate of dust indirect effect remains uncertain due to simulating dust distributions poorly and lacking reliable dust observations, especially in the upper-troposphere. Here, we characterize and understand upper-troposphere dust sources and transport with an improved dust dataset derived from A-train satellite lidar and radar measurements and an air parcel trajectory model. The distinct upper-troposphere dust belt over the northern hemisphere has seasonally varying base and top heights of 3.65 ± 2.84 and 8.35 ± 1.50 km above mean sea level and its column loading is strongest during spring (March-April-May). The out-of-phase annual cycles of mid-level dust concentration and westerly wind over source regions control the seasonal upper-tropospheric dust loading variations. African deserts contribute the most (46.3%) to the upper-troposphere dust belt in spring and the synoptic trough is the leading (49%) dust lifting mechanism.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observations suggest that North African dust absorbs less solar radiation than models estimate

Abstract Desert dust accounts for a large fraction of shortwave radiation absorbed by aerosols, which adds to the climate warming produced by greenhouse gases. However, it remains uncertain exactly how much shortwave radiation dust absorbs. Here, we leverage in-situ measurements of dust single-scattering albedo to constrain absorption at mid-visible wavelength by North African dust, which accounts for approximately half of the global dust. We find that climate and chemical transport models overestimate North African dust absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) by up to a factor of two. This occurs primarily because models overestimate the dust imaginary refractive index, the effect of which is partially masked by an underestimation of large dust particles. Similar factors might contribute to an overestimation of AAOD retrieved by the Aerosol Robotic Network, which is commonly used to evaluate climate and chemical transport models. The overestimation of dust absorption by models could lead to substantial biases in simulated dust impacts on the Earth system, including warm biases in dust radiative effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large global variations in the carbon dioxide removal potential of seaweed farming due to biophysical constraints

Abstract Estimates suggest that over 4 gigatons per year of carbon dioxide (Gt-CO 2 year −1 ) be removed from the atmosphere by 2050 to meet international climate goals. One strategy for carbon dioxide removal is seaweed farming; however its global potential remains highly uncertain. Here, we apply a dynamic seaweed growth model that includes growth-limiting mechanisms, such as nitrate supply, to estimate the global potential yield of four types of seaweed. We estimate that harvesting 1 Gt year −1 of seaweed carbon would require farming over 1 million km 2 of the most productive exclusive economic zones, located in the equatorial Pacific; the cultivation area would need to be tripled to attain an additional 1 Gt year −1 of harvested carbon, indicating dramatic reductions in carbon harvest efficiency beyond the most productive waters. Improving the accuracy of annual harvest yield estimates requires better understanding of biophysical constraints such as seaweed loss rates (e.g., infestation, disease, grazing, wave erosion).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Water sources and land capacitor effects stimulate observed summer Arctic moistening and warming

The primary sources of recent summer Arctic moistening trends in reanalysis are uncertain, hindering attribution of observed Arctic warming due to radiative effects from water vapor changes. Here, we use a combined online numerical water tracer and circulation nudging approach in the Community Earth System Model to track the sources of water vapor beyond its initial sources. Trends in boreal summer large-scale circulation have driven moistening of the Arctic over recent decades, having a large impact on the Arctic radiative budget, accounting for 94% of the strengthening water vapor radiative feedback. We identify two key regions supplying the Arctic water vapor feedback: Northeast North America and western/central Eurasia. In both regions, anticyclonic circulations over the southwest Atlantic and eastern Europe move moisture from the tropical oceans poleward to high latitude land through precipitation in winter and spring. During summer, evapotranspiration over land releases this water vapor, and it is transported by winds into the Arctic. We refer to this sequence of terrestrial moisture storage and release as the land capacitor effect. Thus, the impacts of circulation changes on poleward moisture transport and land-atmosphere interactions over high latitudes represent the underlying mechanisms of the recent moistening and warming in the Arctic.

Arctic amplification↗

Genetics of varicose veins reveals polygenic architecture and genetic overlap with arterial and venous disease

Varicose veins represent a common cause of cardiovascular morbidity, with limited available medical therapies. Although varicose veins are heritable and epidemiologic studies have identified several candidate varicose vein risk factors, the molecular and genetic basis remains uncertain. Here we analyzed the contribution of common genetic variants to varicose veins using data from the Veterans Affairs Million Veteran Program and four other large biobanks. Among 49,765 individuals with varicose veins and 1,334,301 disease-free controls, we identified 139 risk loci. We identified genetic overlap between varicose veins, other vascular diseases and dozens of anthropometric factors. Using Mendelian randomization, we prioritized therapeutic targets via integration of proteomic and transcriptomic data. Finally, topological enrichment analyses confirmed the biologic roles of endothelial shear flow disruption, inflammation, vascular remodeling and angiogenesis. Further, these findings may facilitate future efforts to develop nonsurgical therapies for varicose veins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Land-use and atmospheric shifts jointly amplify U.S. drought-driven crop losses

Agricultural drought (AD) poses a major threat to food security, yet its future risk remains uncertain under co-evolving atmospheric conditions and land-use trajectories. Using an integrated, multi-sector modeling framework, we project AD risks for major crops across the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2055 under a range of plausible futures that capture thermodynamic changes and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) trajectories. Model projections reveal that drought-driven crop production losses increase sharply by nearly 60% for corn, 250% for wheat, and 135% for soybean relative to historical levels. The primary drivers of these increases, which include atmospheric shifts and LULCC, vary by region and crop type. LULCC acting as an important risk amplifier in regions experiencing cropland expansion into drought-prone regions, such as the Great Plains and northwestern U.S. Wheat exhibits the largest projected loss increases, a result that remains robust across scenarios. These findings highlight that interactions between atmospheric conditions and land-use trajectories shape future agricultural drought risk and should be jointly considered to support effective adaptation and food-system planning.

Yao, Lili↗

Predicting Thermal Excursions During in situ Oxidative Regeneration of Packed Bed Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis Catalyst

Ex situ catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) uses a secondary reactor to upgrade biomass pyrolysis vapors to stabilized CFP oils with reduced oxygen content. In one configuration, the secondary reactor is operated as a packed-bed swing reactor system which allows coke-deactivated beds to be decarbonized in situ while other beds remain online for vapor upgrading. In situ decarbonization must be done carefully to avoid irreversible deactivation and/or physical degradation of catalyst pellets. Given that packed bed reactors are well known to have poor heat transfer characteristics, this is a critical issue impacting scaleability and commercial viability of the technology. To predict thermal excursions during regeneration, finite element computational models have been built to assist in scaling up oxidative decarbonization of a Pt/TiO2 CFP catalyst (0.5 mm spheres) from a bench scale packed bed with 100 g of catalyst to a pilot scale packed bed with 2 kg of catalyst and internal cooling tubes. Based on transient measurements of outlet temperature and effluent CO2 concentration, and using an assumed coke profile and activation energy, this paper demonstrates that specific combinations of effective thermal conductivity and wall heat transfer coefficient can fit bench scale oxidative regeneration data equally well. For the upscaled 2 kg bed, four bench-scale “best fit” parameter pairs give different predictions for location and magnitude of thermal excursions, with the maximum computed bed temperature gradients ranging from 30 °C cm-1 to as high as 3000 °C cm-1. The larger the fraction of heat removal by conduction through the cooling tubes, the greater the differences between the parameter pairs. The modelling results presented in this paper cast doubt on the industrial viability of the proposed combination of catalyst, bed and regeneration process, and point to the need for alternate reactor designs. However, there is considerable uncertainly in some of the key model parameters. The reliability of model predictions can be increased by adding more temperature measurements at key bed locations, testing additional variations in process conditions, performing careful bed dissections to determine the true coke profile, and perhaps most importantly, directly measuring the effective thermal conductivity of the catalyst pellets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Geologic hydrogen: a review of resource potential, subsurface dynamics, exploration, production, transportation, and research opportunities

Hydrogen is a versatile resource with critical roles in decarbonization, industrial manufacturing, and energy integration. However, most hydrogen today is produced from fossil fuels, resulting in high emissions and energy consumption. Although low-carbon hydrogen production methods, such as steam methane reforming with carbon capture and renewable-powered electrolysis, are advancing, their high costs hinder large-scale deployment. Identifying alternative pathways for producing low-cost, low-emission hydrogen is therefore essential. Geologic hydrogen, referring to natural and stimulated hydrogen generated in the Earth's subsurface, has attracted growing attention as a potential source of sustainable, economically viable, and environmentally favorable hydrogen. This paper provides a comprehensive review of geologic hydrogen, covering its resource potential, origins, migration and trapping mechanisms, exploration techniques, production strategies, and pipeline transportation. It also identifies key knowledge gaps and proposes a roadmap for future research. The review indicates that geologic hydrogen has vast resource potential and can leverage existing subsurface technologies and geophysical exploration methods. However, major challenges persist, including uncertain hydrogen generation rates, limited understanding and control of serpentinization processes, costly transportation infrastructure, the lack of validated techno-economic analysis, and potential social and environmental issues. As the field is still in its early stages, progress will require interdisciplinary collaboration spanning geoscience, engineering, economics, environmental science, and policy and regulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Correlated energy uncertainties in reaction rate calculations

Monte Carlo methods can be used to evaluate the uncertainty of a reaction rate that arises from many uncertain nuclear inputs. However, until now no attempt has been made to find the effect of correlated energy uncertainties in input resonance parameters. Our goal is to investigate the impact of correlated resonance energy uncertainties on reaction rates. Using a combination of numerical and Monte Carlo variation of resonance energies, the effect of correlations are investigated. Five reactions are considered: two fictional, illustrative cases and three reactions whose rates are of current interest. The effect of correlations in resonance energies depends on the specific reaction cross section and temperatures considered. When several resonances contribute equally to a reaction rate, and when they are located on either side of the Gamow peak, correlations between their energies dilute their effect on reaction rate uncertainties. If they are both located above or below the maximum of the Gamow peak, however, correlations between their resonance energies can increase the reaction rate uncertainties. This effect can be hard to predict for complex reactions with wide and narrow resonances contributing to the reaction rate.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Redshift evolution of the underlying type Ia supernova stretch distribution

The detailed nature of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) remains uncertain, and as survey statistics increase, the question of astrophysical systematic uncertainties arises, notably that of the evolution of SN Ia populations. We study the dependence on redshift of the SN Ia SALT2.4 light-curve stretch, which is a purely intrinsic SN property, to probe its potential redshift drift. The SN stretch has been shown to be strongly correlated with the SN environment, notably with stellar age tracers. We modeled the underlying stretch distribution as a function of redshift, using the evolution of the fraction of young and old SNe Ia as predicted using the SNfactory dataset, and assuming a constant underlying stretch distribution for each age population consisting of Gaussian mixtures. We tested our prediction against published samples that were cut to have marginal magnitude selection effects, so that any observed change is indeed astrophysical and not observational in origin. In this first study, there are indications that the underlying SN Ia stretch distribution evolves as a function of redshift, and that the age drifting model is a better description of the data than any time-constant model, including the sample-based asymmetric distributions that are often used to correct Malmquist bias at a significance higher than 5σ. The favored underlying stretch model is a bimodal one, composed of a high-stretch mode shared by both young and old environments, and a low-stretch mode that is exclusive to old environments. The precise effect of the redshift evolution of the intrinsic properties of a SN Ia population on cosmology remains to be studied. The astrophysical drift of the SN stretch distribution does affect current Malmquist bias corrections, however, and thereby the distances that are derived based on SN that are affected by observational selection effects. We highlight that this bias will increase with surveys covering increasingly larger redshift ranges, which is particularly important for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Detection of open cluster rotation fields from Gaia EDR3 proper motions

Context: Most stars from in groups which with time disperse, building the field population of their host galaxy. In the Milky Way, open clusters have been continuously forming in the disk up to the present time, providing it with stars spanning a broad range of ages and masses. Observations of the details of cluster dissolution are, however, scarce. One of the main difficulties is obtaining a detailed characterisation of the internal cluster kinematics, which requires very high-quality proper motions. For open clusters, which are typically loose groups with tens to hundreds of members, there is the additional difficulty of inferring kinematic structures from sparse and irregular distributions of stars. Aims: Here, we aim to analyse internal stellar kinematics of open clusters, and identify rotation, expansion, or contraction patterns. Methods: We use Gaia Early Data Release 3 (EDR3) astrometry and integrated nested Laplace approximations to perform vector-field inference and create spatio-kinematic maps of 1237 open clusters. The sample is composed of clusters for which individual stellar memberships were already known, thus minimising contamination from field stars in the velocity maps. Projection effects were corrected using EDR3 data complemented with radial velocities from Gaia Data Release 2 and other surveys. Results: We report the detection of rotation patterns in eight open clusters. Nine additional clusters display possible rotation signs. We also observe 14 expanding clusters, with 15 other objects showing possible expansion patterns. Contraction is evident in two clusters, with one additional cluster presenting a more uncertain detection. In total, 53 clusters are found to display kinematic structures. Within these, elongated spatial distributions suggesting tidal tails are found in five clusters. These results indicate that the approach developed here can recover kinematic patterns from noisy vector fields, as those from astrometric measurements of open clusters or other stellar or galactic populations, thus offering a powerful probe for exploring the internal kinematics and dynamics of these types of objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Photometric redshift-aided classification using ensemble learning

We present SHEEP, a new machine learning approach to the classic problem of astronomical source classification, which combines the outputs from the XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost learning algorithms to create stronger classifiers. A novel step in our pipeline is that prior to performing the classification, SHEEP first estimates photometric redshifts, which are then placed into the data set as an additional feature for classification model training; this results in significant improvements in the subsequent classification performance. SHEEP contains two distinct classification methodologies: (i) Multi-class and (ii) one versus all with correction by a meta-learner. We demonstrate the performance of SHEEP for the classification of stars, galaxies, and quasars using a data set composed of SDSS and WISE photometry of 3.5 million astronomical sources. The resulting F1 -scores are as follows: 0.992 for galaxies; 0.967 for quasars; and 0.985 for stars. In terms of the F1-scores for the three classes, SHEEP is found to outperform a recent RandomForest-based classification approach using an essentially identical data set. Our methodology also facilitates model and data set explainability via feature importances; it also allows the selection of sources whose uncertain classifications may make them interesting sources for follow-up observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SIT 45: An interacting, compact, and star-forming isolated galaxy triplet

The underlying scenario of the formation and evolution of galaxy triplets is still uncertain. Mergers of galaxies in isolated triplets give us the opportunity to study the already complex merging process, with minimal contamination of other environmental effects that potentially allow and accelerate galaxy transitions from active star-forming to passive galaxies. The merging system SIT 45 (UGC 12589) is one of 315 systems in the SDSS-based catalogue of Isolated Triplets (SIT); it is an unusual isolated galaxy triplet, consisting of three merging late-type galaxies. The main aims of this work are to study the dynamical evolution and star formation history (SFH) of SIT 45, as well as its dependence on its local and large-scale environment. Methods. To study its dynamics, parameters such as the velocity dispersion (σ v ), the harmonic radius (R H ), the crossing time (H 0 t c ), and the virial mass (M vir ), along with the compactness of the triplet (S) were considered. To investigate the possible dependence of these dynamical parameters on the environment, the tidal force Q parameters (both local and large-scale) and the projected local density (η k ) were used. To constrain the SFH, we used CIGALE to fit its observed spectral energy distribution using multiwavelength data from the ultraviolet to the infrared. SIT 45 is one of the most compact triplets in the SIT, and it is also more compact than triplets in other samples. According to its SFH, SIT 45 presents star formation, where the galaxies also present recent (~200 Myr) star formation increase, indicating that this activity may have been triggered by the interaction. Its dynamical configuration suggests that the system is highly evolved in comparison to the SIT. However, this is not expected for systems composed of star-forming late-type galaxies, based on observations in compact groups. We conclude that SIT 45 is a system of three interacting galaxies that are evolving within the same dark matter halo; its compact configuration is a consequence of the ongoing interaction rather than being due to a long-term evolution (as suggested from its H 0 t c value). We consider two scenarios for the present configuration of the triplet, one where one of the members is a tidal galaxy, and another where this galaxy arrives to the system after the interaction. Both scenarios need further exploration. The isolated triplet SIT 45 is therefore an ideal system to study short timescale mechanisms (~10 8 yr), such as starbursts triggered by interactions which are more frequent at higher redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗