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At least 559 records · Page 31

Energy-Efficient and Water-Saving Sorbent Regeneration at Near Room Temperature for Direct Air Capture

Here this study reports energy-efficient and water-saving microwave-accelerated regeneration of sorbent (MARS) for dilute carbon capture from the ambient air. The experimental studies indicated that the CO 2 desorption rate from the chemisorbents increased with microwave output under near-isothermal conditions at near room temperature. The reduced activation energy of MARS, i.e., 20–28 kJ/mol, indicated enhanced CO 2 desorption kinetics by microwave-induced rotational–vibrational (rovibrational) coupling transitions, primarily due to the highly polarized feature of the carbamate (CO 2 -PEI). The instant and selective delivery of microwave energy to the targeted polarized C–N bonds at room temperature is particularly advantageous for energy-efficient direct air capture. The experimental results also demonstrated a good working capacity of 0.6–1.4 mmol of CO 2 /g and a promising rapid MARS-DAC process with microwave swing. As it does not require steam regeneration and heat exchanger, a simple MARS process is attractive for CO 2 capture in water-stressed regions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Genomics-enabled analysis of specialized metabolism in bioenergy crops: Current progress and challenges

Plants produce a staggering diversity of specialized small molecule metabolites that play vital roles in mediating environmental interactions and stress adaptation. This chemical diversity derives from dynamic biosynthetic pathway networks that are often species-specific and operate under tight spatiotemporal and environmental control. A growing divide between demand and environmental challenges in food and bioenergy crop production have intensified research on these complex metabolite networks and their contribution to crop fitness. High-throughput omics technologies provide access to ever-increasing data resources for investigating plant metabolism. However, the efficiency of using such system-wide data to decode the gene and enzyme functions controlling specialized metabolism has remained limited; due largely to the recalcitrance of many plants to genetic approaches and the lack of ‘user-friendly’ biochemical tools for studying the diverse enzyme classes involved in specialized metabolism. With emphasis on terpenoid metabolism in the bioenergy crop switchgrass as an example, this review aims to illustrate current advances and challenges in the application of DNA synthesis and synthetic biology tools for accelerating the functional discovery of genes, enzymes and pathways in plant specialized metabolism. These technologies have accelerated knowledge development on the biosynthesis and physiological roles of diverse metabolite networks across many ecologically and economically important plant species and can provide resources for application to precision breeding and natural product metabolic engineering.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Transportation Analysis of the Fermilab High-Beta 650 MHz Cryomodule

The prototype High-Beta 650 MHz cryomodule for the PIP-II project will be the first of its kind to be transported internationally, and the round trip from FNAL to STFC UKRI will use a combination of road and air transit. Transportation of an assembled cryomodule poses a significant technical challenge, as excitation can generate high stresses and cyclic loading. To accurately assess the behavior of the cryomodule, Finite Element Analysis (FEA) was used to analyze all major components. First, all individual components were studied. For the critical/complex components, the analysis was in fine detail. Afterwards, all models were brought to a simplified state (necessary for computational expenses), verified to have the same behavior as their detailed counterparts, and combined to form larger sub-assemblies, with the ultimate analysis including the full cryomodule. We report the criteria for acceptance and methods of analysis, and results for selected components and sub-assemblies.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

The Feasibility and the Benefits of the Advanced Nuclear Fuel Pellet Designs with Radially Varying Fuel Zoning and Burnable Poison Concentration (Final Summary Report)

As part of the work supported by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) FY 2021 Voucher, Exelon Generation, now Constellation, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) entered into a cooperative research and development agreement (CRADA) to evaluate and assess the feasibility and impact of various conceptual advanced nuclear fuel pellet designs (ANFPDs). The objective of this project was to perform modeling and simulation and analyses using the advanced modeling and simulation capabilities of VERA/BISON, developed by DOE, to determine the viability and benefits of numerous advanced nuclear fuel pellet design concepts in terms of fuel cycle costs, operational safety, and margin improvement. Whereas the detailed coupled neutronic and thermal hydraulic analyses performed using VERA provided in-depth knowledge in terms of fuel cycle performance, the detailed VERA results were used in subsequent fuel performance analyses using BISON. These subsequent analyses focused on several key fuel performance criteria, such as peak fuel centerline temperature (FCT), fission gas release (FGR), gap closure, plenum pressure, and cladding hoop stress. These key fuel performance criteria were analyzed for some of the conceptual fuel designs and were compared with the results obtained for UO 2 fuel. The results provided detailed information to enable better understanding of the performance of the fuel types analyzed. Understanding the advantage of loading these conceptual fuel designs into the core is important not only to Constellation but also to the entire light-water reactor (LWR) fleet in the United States.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Finite element analysis of the impact of beam heating mode in molten salt corrosion experiments employing simultaneous ion irradiation

Finite element analysis was used to investigate the temperature and stress profiles that develop in 316L stainless steel membranes being irradiated using different proton beam conditions in contact with a molten salt environment. It was shown that in addition to a nonuniform irradiation profile, a focused 2 MeV proton beam leads to very strong temperature and stress gradients in the membrane, introducing highly localized driving forces that complicate and even compromise the integrity and reliability of the experimental results of corrosion studies. Here, the use of a focused beam in corrosion studies can create experimental artifacts that may misrepresent the true corrosion behavior. In contrast, the use of a rastered beam is shown to distribute the protons and resulting radiation damage uniformly across the membrane face, and more importantly, results in temperature and stress profiles that are not only very uniform but are of much lower magnitude. The use of a rastered beam during molten salt corrosion experiments is therefore recommended to achieve uniform damage rates, thereby reducing both gradients and magnitudes of the temperature and stress distributions.

43 - PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Examining Graphite Degradation in Molten Salt Environments: A Chemical, Physical, and Material Analysis

Molten-salt reactors (MSRs) are Generation IV nuclear reactors that use liquid salt as a coolant and/or fuel. In several MSR designs, graphite serves as a moderator and/or reflector. However, due to limited experimental data and operational experience, our understanding of graphite behavior in molten salt environments remains incomplete. This report aims to identify the degradation mechanisms of nuclear graphite in MSRs, detail the mechanisms of each factor, and provide an initial assessment of their impact on the structural integrity of graphite components. This assessment is based on an extensive literature review and insights from subject matter experts. Furthermore, given the limited data, a modeling strategy using existing Grizzly software is proposed for a more thorough analysis where appropriate. Additionally, it presents mitigation strategies where applicable. The report covers physical degradation mechanisms such as infiltration, erosion, and abrasion, as well as chemical degradation mechanisms including fluorination, intercalation, corrosion, and oxidation. Molten salt can infiltrate the porous structure of graphite, leading to several detrimental effects. Entrapment of fissile products within the graphite pores can cause radiation damage and could pose challenges in the handling and disposal of contaminated components. The differential thermal expansion between the infiltrated salt and graphite, along with internal stress from pressurized molten salt and volumetric heating, can compromise the structural integrity of graphite. To mitigate these effects, employing ultra-fine graphite grades and applying sealants and coatings are effective strategies. A computational model based on coupled solid mechanics and heat transfer phenomena could be used to predict the internal stresses using Grizzly software. In pebble-bed MSRs, graphite fuel pebbles can cause abrasion against reactor components due to friction and wear. The severity of wear is influenced by various factors such as temperature, environment, and the presence of lubricants. Tribological studies reveal that higher temperatures and molten salt environments, such as FLiBe, significantly reduce wear rates compared to dry conditions. Additionally, the chemical composition of the salt can further optimize graphite's tribological performance. Long-term wear effects can be modeled by incorporating surface defects into the geometry and predict stresses under thermal and radiation effects using Grizzly software. Chemical degradation of graphite in a molten salt environment can occur through fluorination and intercalation. Fluorination can occur via replacement of hydrogen or oxygen atoms, or at the active sites, but does not cause structural degradation. Intercalation, on the other hand, can lead to exfoliation, where layers of graphite separate and peel away, damaging the graphite. Protective coatings can enhance graphite's resistance to intercalation. Graphite generally exhibits good chemical stability in molten salt environments, though it can corrode under specific conditions, particularly in the presence of impurities or oxidants. Studies have shown that protective coatings, such as plasma-sprayed partially stabilized zirconia (PSZ), can effectively prevent such degradation. Corrosion behavior varies significantly with different graphite grades and coating applications, underscoring the need for detailed studies on uncoated and coated graphite to understand and mitigate corrosion mechanisms in MSRs. Research indicates that the presence of oxidants and impurities can accelerate graphite degradation in molten salts, making it essential to explore acceptable impurity limits. Oxidation is another critical degradation mechanism, leading to weight loss and structural damage due to the formation of CO and CO 2 from the reaction of carbon atoms with oxygen. This process creates new porosity and compromises graphite's integrity. While extensive research on graphite oxidation has been conducted for gas-cooled reactors, studies specific to MSRs are limited. Findings from the coal industry suggest that molten alkali metal salts can significantly accelerate graphite oxidation, a hypothesis worth exploring for fluoride salts in MSRs. Understanding oxidation behavior in MSRs is vital for developing protective measures. The analysis of post-irradiated graphite from the MSRE experiment demonstrated exceptional chemical compatibility with molten fluoride salt, suggesting that the extent of chemical attack on graphite largely depends on the salt's infiltration capability. Therefore, the use of ultra-fine grade graphite could help mitigate chemical degradation effects. Existing oxidation modeling capabilities in Grizzly, which use reaction-diffusion equations to model graphite-air interactions, could be adapted to simulate the chemical degradation effects of graphite in molten salt environments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat

Abstract. Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, has retreated and accelerated through the 21st century, raising concerns that it could be a significant contributor to future sea-level rise. We use a data-constrained ensemble of three-dimensional higher-order ice sheet model simulations to estimate the likely range of sea-level rise from the continued retreat of Humboldt Glacier. We first solve for basal traction using observed ice thickness, bed topography, and ice surface velocity from the year 2007 in a PDE-constrained (partial differential equation) optimization. Next, we impose calving rates to match mean observed retreat rates from winter 2007–2008 to winter 2017–2018 in a transient calibration of the exponent in the power-law basal friction relationship. We find that power-law exponents in the range of 1/7–1/5 – rather than the commonly used 1/3–1 – are necessary to reproduce the observed speedup over this period. We then tune an iceberg calving parameterization based on the von Mises stress yield criterion in another transient-calibration step to approximate both observed ice velocities and terminus position in 2017–2018. Finally, we use the range of basal friction relationship exponents and calving parameter values to generate the ensemble of model simulations from 2007–2100 under three climate forcing scenarios from CMIP5 (two RCP8.5 forcings, Representative Concentration Pathway) and CMIP6 (one SSP5-8.5 forcing, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway). Our simulations predict 5.2–8.7 mm of sea-level rise from Humboldt Glacier, significantly higher than a previous estimate (∼ 3.5 mm) and equivalent to a substantial fraction of the 40–140 mm predicted by ISMIP6 from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet. Our larger future sea-level rise prediction results from the transient calibration of our basal friction law to match the observed speedup, which requires a semi-plastic bed rheology. In many simulations, our model predicts the growth of a sizable ice shelf in the middle of the 21st century. Thus, atmospheric warming could lead to more retreat than predicted here if increased surface melt promotes hydrofracture of the ice shelf. Our data-constrained simulations of Humboldt Glacier underscore the sensitivity of model predictions of Greenland outlet glacier response to warming to choices of basal shear stress and iceberg calving parameterizations. Further, transient calibration of these parameterizations, which has not typically been performed, is necessary to reproduce observed behavior. Current estimates of future sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet could, therefore, contain significant biases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large-Eddy Simulation of Flow Over Boeing Gaussian Bump Using Multiagent Reinforcement Learning Wall Model: Preprint

We develop a wall model for large-eddy simulation (LES) that takes into account various pressure-gradient effects using multi-agent reinforcement learning. The model is trained using low-Reynolds-number flow over periodic hills with agents distributed on the wall at various computational grid points. It utilizes a wall eddy-viscosity formulation as the boundary condition to apply the modeled wall shear stress. Each agent receives states based on local instantaneous flow quantities at an off-wall location, computes a reward based on the estimated wall-shear stress, and provides an action to update the wall eddy viscosity at each time step. The trained wall model is validated in wall-modeled LES of flow over periodic hills at higher Reynolds numbers, and the results show the effectiveness of the model on flow with pressure gradients. The analysis of the trained model indicates that the model is capable of distinguishing between the various pressure gradient regimes present in the flow. To further assess the robustness of the developed wall model, simulations of flow over the Boeing Gaussian bump are conducted at a Reynolds number of 2 x 10^6, based on the free-stream velocity and the bump width. The results of mean skin friction and pressure on the bump surface, as well as the velocity statistics of the flow field, are compared to those obtained from equilibrium wall model (EQWM) simulations and published experimental data sets. The developed wall model is found to successfully capture the acceleration and deceleration of the turbulent boundary layer on the bump surface, providing better predictions of skin friction near the bump peak and exhibiting comparable performance to the EQWM with respect to the wall pressure and velocity field. We also conclude that the subgrid-scale model is crucial to the accurate prediction of the flow field, in particular the prediction of separation.

boundary layer↗

Deformation and Fracture Behavior of Additively Manufactured 316L Stainless Steel

Tensile deformation and fracture behavior of an additively manufactured (AM) 316L stainless steel (SS) in the as-built, stress-relieved, and solution-annealed conditions was investigated using in situ tensile testing in a scanning electron microscope with an electron back scattering diffraction (SEM–EBSD) detector. Analyses were performed to discuss the characteristic deformation and fracture process of the fine-grained AM 316L SS with and without relaxation heat treatment. The as-built 316L showed the highest strength, and both post-build heat treatments lowered the strength of the alloy. Regardless of the post-build processing, the AM 316L SS showed overall higher strength but slightly lower ductility when compared to the wrought (WT) 316L SS. Analysis of EBSD data indicated that the characteristic microstructural features from AM, such as the complex and fine grain morphology, dislocation network, pores, and silicon-rich oxides, evolved and exerted various roles during the tensile deformation and fracture processes. Further, it was obvious that the interaction of dislocation slips with oxide particles and cavities (or pores) resulted in an accelerated cracking in AM 316L SS. Overall, however, their influence on mechanical behavior was limited, as the genuinely high ductility of 316L SS could help avoid any premature or brittle fracture.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Materials Characterization: A Primer for Solid Phase Processing Applications

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems produced via advanced manufacturing methods, such as solid phase processing, for use in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). As a two-year LDRD investment requiring focused research, the MCPC project applied only a subset of the wide range of available destructive and nondestructive characterization methods to provide data to the predictive modeling and data analytics tasks. The purpose of this report is to review a wide range of destructive and nondestructive characterization methods that are relevant in solid-phase processing (SPP) applications, but not necessarily applied in the MCPC Project as a guide to the planning of characterization activities in future research. Particular attention is given to measured characteristics that can correlate to other material characteristics, with a particular interest in nondestructive evaluation (NDE) that can be applied to samples obtained in the MCPC Project. Destructive examinations include tensile tests, optical and electron microscopy, micro-hardness, and residual stress tests. NDE tests include surface visual inspection, eddy current examination for cracks, 4-point potential drop, ultrasound, x-ray, and computed tomography.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Interfacial microstructure and mechanical properties of rotary inertia friction welded dissimilar 422 martensitic stainless steel to 4140 low alloy steel joints

In this work, dissimilar rotary inertia friction welds between 422 martensitic stainless steel and 4140 martensitic low-alloy steel were made to fabricate prototype heavy-duty diesel engine pistons. The influence of the inertia friction welding process and post weld heat treatment (PWHT) temperature on the interfacial microstructure evolutions and corresponding effects on mechanical properties of the 422/4140 welds were evaluated in detail. Carbon diffused from the 4140 side to the 422 side during PWHT at 650 °C for 1.5 h, causing the formation of a hard carbide-rich layer on the 422 side, and a softer but discontinuous C-depleted layer the 4140 side. PWHT at 700 °C for 1.5 h greatly accelerated C diffusion across the interface relative to 650 °C, resulting in a thicker hard carbide-rich layer and a relatively thick and continuous layer of coarse C-depleted grains (ferrite) on the 4140 side. In addition, the PWHT temperature greatly influenced the tensile properties and fracture behavior of the welds, with the 650 °C PWHT-ed samples failing predominately in a ductile manner in the 4140 heat affected zone during tensile testing. Conversely, the 700 °C PWHT specimens exhibited a strength reduction compared with the 650 °C PWHT specimens because of additional coarsening of the interfacial ferrite layer and softening of the base materials during PWHT, with brittle fracture between the hard and soft layers the predominate failure mechanism. Based on the findings, a reduced PWHT temperature and/or time, minimizing the hardness differential of the base metals, and pre-heating the 422 steel prior to welding are the potential pathways to achieve a more optimal balance between desirable tempering and stress relief of the weld microstructure and undesirable C migration across the weld interface, and to reduce the strength mismatch across the weld.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Design and structural assessment of the Spallation Neutron Source 2.0 MW target

The Proton Power Upgrade (PPU) project is underway at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The project will double the proton accelerator power from 1.4 MW to 2.8 MW, increase power to the First Target Station (FTS), and enable a future Second Target Station (STS). The power increase partly comes from raising proton energy from 1.0 GeV to 1.3 GeV. The STS will operate at 0.7 MW at 15 Hz when completed. Until then, PPU will provide the capability to operate the FTS at 2.0 MW at 60 Hz. Maximum power at the FTS to date has been 1.4 MW at 60 Hz with 1.0 GeV protons. A new mercury target module design to operate reliably under PPU conditions has been completed after a multi-year effort. The design philosophy and assessment of the structural analysis are described here. This target underwent an unprecedented design and analysis process for SNS using the latest engineering techniques and incorporating years of operating lessons and outcomes from R&D to meet structural design criteria. Finally, it also incorporates high-flow gas injection to further mitigate pulse fatigue stresses as well as cavitation damage to the mercury vessel.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Model 9975 O-Ring Fixture Long-Term Leak Performance (FY2020 Status Report)

Leak testing experiments to monitor the aging performance of Viton GLT and GLT-S O-rings used in the model 9975 shipping package has been ongoing since 2004 at Savannah River National Laboratory. Seventy tests using mock-up 9975 primary containment vessels (PCVs) with GLT O-rings were assembled and heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 450 °F. In addition, fourteen tests with GLT-S O-rings were initiated in 2008 and heated to temperatures ranging from 200 to 400 °F. The conditioning temperatures are elevated compared to the calculated maximum O-ring temperature in a 9975 package in storage, 158 °F, to accelerate aging and enable observations of O-ring failures in a reasonable time frame. The fixtures are leak tested periodically and all GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 350 °F or above have failed to maintain a leak-tight seal. Eight GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 300 °F have failed after 2.8 to 5.7 years at temperature while the remaining fixtures at 300 °F were retired from testing following more than five years without failure. No failures have yet been observed in GLT O-ring fixtures aging at 200 °F for 12 to 14 years or aging at 270 °F for 8.5 years. All GLT-S O-ring fixtures aging at 300 °F or above have failed their leak test. No failures have yet been observed in GLT-S O-ring fixtures aging at 200 and 250 °F for 10 to 10.5 years. Data from the O-ring fixtures are generally consistent with results from compression stress-relaxation testing, and provide confidence in the predictive models based on those results. However, uncertainty exists in extrapolating these elevated temperature results to the lower temperatures of interest for normal storage in K-Area Complex (KAC). Oxygen consumption testing, which includes results from temperatures near KAC normal storage temperatures, is ongoing to provide further confidence and corroborate these extrapolations. The collective data from these test efforts suggest the minimum O-ring service life at KAC normal storage conditions should be at least 34 years for GLT and GLT-S O-rings. Measurement of compression set in O-rings removed from failed fixtures, compared to that from KAC surveillance O-rings, indicates margin remains for O-rings still in service. Aging and periodic leak testing will continue for the remaining PCV fixtures.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Computational Design of Alloys for Energy Technologies

Advanced materials that maintain their mechanical performance under elevated temperatures, corrosive environments, and a range of static and evolving stresses are needed to improve the efficiency and reduce the environmental impact of a wide spectrum of energy technologies. For instance, cost-efficient alloys that can withstand high temperatures (e.g., 700 °C) have a critical role in improving the efficiency and economics of power generation to support decarbonization of the energy sector; such is true of both the nuclear and fossil energy sectors. Considering both the threats of the energy crisis, namely soaring costs of greenhouse gas emission-producing energy and climate change, it is essential to increase the pace of material discovery and enable rapid paths for material qualification to advance clean energy technologies. Conventionally, alloy development has followed a slow Edisonian process that uses repeated cycles of making, characterizing, and modifying to arrive at optimum composition and processing conditions to achieve the desired component performance. This optimization is followed by the necessary stepwise materials qualification. Furthermore, the increasing adoption of sound data management and physics-informed machine learning represents the next step in the acceleration of materials design and development. In the integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) approach, computational modeling and simulation data from different length and time scales can be combined with complex microstructural details from multimodal experimental characterization and selective property testing to close the design loop for rapid alloy development.

Computational Design Of Materials↗

Evolution of dislocation substructures in metals via high-strain-rate nanoindentation

Deformation at high strain rates often results in high stresses on many engineering materials, potentially leading to catastrophic failure without proper design. High-strain-rate mechanical testing is thus needed to improve the design of future structural materials for a wide range of applications. Although several high-strain-rate mechanical testing techniques have been developed to provide a fundamental understanding of material responses and microstructural evolution under high-strain-rate deformation conditions, these tests are often very time consuming and costly. In this work, we utilize a high-strain-rate nanoindentation testing technique and system in combination with transmission electron microscopy to reveal the deformation mechanisms and dislocation substructures that evolve in pure metals from low (10 –2 s –1 ) to very high indentation strain rates (10 4 s –1 ), using face-centered cubic aluminum and body-centered cubic molybdenum as model materials. The results help to establish the conditions under which micro- and macro-scale tests can be compared with validity and also provide a promising pathway that could lead to accelerated high-strain-rate testing at substantially reduced costs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of multi-scale computational frameworks to solve fusion materials science challenges

Over the past two decades, the US-DOE has funded multiple projects that rely on high-performance computing and exascale computing platforms to accelerate scientific discoveries and address grand scientific challenges, such as harnessing fusion energy. In this article, we review in detail one of these efforts aimed at enhancing our capability to model plasma-facing materials subject to plasma and high-energy ion/neutron irradiation. The plasma surface interactions project has built a multi-scale modeling framework where many of the plasma- and high-energy ion/neutron irradiation-induced effects occurring in tungsten are explored. Here, this knowledge is used to develop atomistically-informed, high-fidelity continuum and meso-scale models that can be validated against experiments. We review the developments within this project, with attention to experimental validation efforts, and specifically highlight activities associated with: helium bubble bursting and equation of state, and hydrogen-helium interactions in tungsten; atomistically-informed model development for beryllium-tungsten material mixing; coupling of scrape-of-layer plasma, sheath and material models; and coupling of stochastic cluster-dynamics and crystal plasticity models to address radiation effects in tungsten under stress. Finally, we present how the project is preparing for future computational architectures, for instance through efforts to adapt atomistic methods to exascale computing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nonnegligible cascading impacts of global urban expansion on net primary productivity

Accelerated global urban expansion not only directly occupies surrounding ecosystems, but also induces cascading losses of natural vegetation elsewhere through cropland displacement. Yet, how such effects alter the net primary productivity (NPP) worldwide remains unclear. Here, we quantified the direct and cascading impacts of global urban expansion on terrestrial NPP from 1992 to 2020 and projected the impacts under the shared socioeconomic pathways framework by 2100. We found that global urban expansion caused a cascading loss of 29.2 to 63.9 Tg C/year of terrestrial NPP in the historical period (1992–2020), accounting for 13–29% of the total direct NPP loss. Instead, our projections indicate that during 2020–2100, mainly due to the increased relocation of displaced croplands to low-productive ecosystems, the cascading impacts gradually change from negative to positive, leading to a net NPP increase. Such an increase may offset up to 7% of the total direct NPP loss, better balancing crop compensation with NPP maintenance. Our findings highlight the unexpected large cascading impacts of urban expansion on the carbon cycle and stress the importance of regulating land transitions to curtail land-use emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assisted migration in a warmer and drier climate: less climate buffering capacity, less facilitation and more fires at temperate latitudes?

Assisted tree migration has been proposed as a conceptual solution to mitigate lags in biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. The rationale behind this concept is that tree species currently growing under warmer and drier climates will be more resistant and resilient to the new climatic conditions than tree species naturally growing in currently wetter and colder climates. However, we hypothesize that, by being more stress‐tolerant to warmer and drier conditions, translocated species should exhibit different functional attributes, which could induce important ecological and societal costs and overcome the desired benefits of maintaining wood production and other ecosystem services. We used principal component analysis (PCA) to analyze variation in seven traits of 106 tree and tall shrub species from contrasting latitudinal distributions in western North America and Europe to predict the potential functional changes of forest ecosystems due to the translocation of tree species from low to high latitudes. We show that species from both continents differed primarily by their position on the leaf economy spectrum (LES) and their size traits. Even though, in Europe, differences in LES were significantly correlated to species southern latitudinal positions, in both continents differences in size traits were significantly correlated to latitude. These results suggest that assisted migration by translocating more conservative species of shorter stature in currently cooler climates should decrease the buffering capacity of forest canopies, decrease facilitation for understory species, and increase wildfire risks, whose effects have the potential to accelerate climate warming through negative atmospheric feedback processes. As an alternative solution to assisted migration that may accelerate rather than mitigate climate change, we recommend that foresters gradually diversify the vertical structure and layering of the existing forest canopy to maintain a sustainable water cycle and energy balance between the soil, the tree and the atmosphere without increasing the wildfire risk.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗