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At least 559 records · Page 31

Sequential estimation and satellite data assimilation in meteorology and oceanography

The role of dynamics in estimating the state of the atmosphere and ocean from incomplete and noisy data is discussed and the classical applications of four-dimensional data assimilation to large-scale atmospheric dynamics are presented. It is concluded that sequential updating of a forecast model with continuously incoming conventional and remote-sensing data is the most natural way of extracting the maximum amount of information from the imperfectly known dynamics, on the one hand, and the inaccurate and incomplete observations, on the other.

Ghil, M.↗

Observing system simulation experiments at NASA. Goddard Space Flight Center

A series of realistic simulation studies is being conducted as a cooperative effort between the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the National Meteorological Center (NMC), and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA), to provide a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of future observing systems on large scale numerical weather prediction. A special objective is to avoid the unrealistic character of earlier simulation studies. Following a brief review of previous simulation studies and real data impact tests, the methodology for the current simulation system will be described. Results from an assessment of the realism of the simulation system and of the potential impact of advanced observing systems on numerical weather prediction and preliminary results utilizing this system will be presented at the conference.

Atlas, R.↗

The application of VAS satellite imagery to thunderstorm forecasting at Cape Canaveral

The Final Report on the application of VAS satellite imagery to thunderstorm forecasting at Cape Canaveral is presented. The objective of this research was to investigate whether satellite-derived imagery and derived products could be used advantageously in forecasting thunderstorms in the Cape Canaveral area. Specifically, data from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder that is housed on the current series of GOES geostationary meteorological satellites was used. These satellite data were used extensively in the middle latitudes, but their utility over central Florida where the climate is more tropical had not been examined.

Fuelberg, Henry E.↗

Sea-air of CO2 in the North Pacific using shipboard and satellite data

A method has been developed to produce high-resolution maps of pCO2 in surface water for the North Pacific using satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data and statistical relationships between measured pCO2 and temperature. In the subtropical North Pacific the pCO in seawater is controlled primarily by temperature. Accordingly, pCO2 values that are calculated from the satellite SST data have good agreement with the measured values (rms deviation of +/- microatm). In the northwestern subpolar region the pCO2 is controlled not only by temperature, but also by significant seasonal changes in the total CO2 concentration, which are caused by seasonal changes in primary production, mixing with subsurface waters and sea-air exchange. Consequently, the parameterization of oceanic p CO2 based on SST data alone is not totally successful in the northwestern region (rms deviation of +/- 40 microatm). The use of additional satellite products, such as wind and ocean color data, as planned for a future study, is considered necessary to account for the pCO2 variability caused by seasonal changes in the total CO2 concentration. The net CO2 flux for the area of the North Pacific included in this study (north of 10 deg N) has been calculated using the monthly pCO2 distributions computed, and monthly wind speeds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The region is found to be a net source to the atmosphere of 1.9 x 10(exp 12) to 5.8 x 10(exp 12) moles of CO2 per year (or 0.02-0.07 Gt C/yr), most of the outflux occurring in the subtropics.

Stephens, Mark P.↗

Workstation-Based Real-Time Mesoscale Modeling Designed for Weather Support to Operations at the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station

This paper describes the capabilities and operational utility of a version of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) that has been developed to support operational weather forecasting at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS). The implementation of local, mesoscale modeling systems at KSC/CCAS is designed to provide detailed short-range (less than 24 h) forecasts of winds, clouds, and hazardous weather such as thunderstorms. Short-range forecasting is a challenge for daily operations, and manned and unmanned launches since KSC/CCAS is located in central Florida where the weather during the warm season is dominated by mesoscale circulations like the sea breeze. For this application, MASS has been modified to run on a Stardent 3000 workstation. Workstation-based, real-time numerical modeling requires a compromise between the requirement to run the system fast enough so that the output can be used before expiration balanced against the desire to improve the simulations by increasing resolution and using more detailed physical parameterizations. It is now feasible to run high-resolution mesoscale models such as MASS on local workstations to provide timely forecasts at a fraction of the cost required to run these models on mainframe supercomputers. MASS has been running in the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) at KSC/CCAS since January 1994 for the purpose of system evaluation. In March 1995, the AMU began sending real-time MASS output to the forecasters and meteorologists at CCAS, Spaceflight Meteorology Group (Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas), and the National Weather Service (Melbourne, Florida). However, MASS is not yet an operational system. The final decision whether to transition MASS for operational use will depend on a combination of forecaster feedback, the AMU's final evaluation results, and the life-cycle costs of the operational system.

Manobianco, John↗

NASA/FAA/NCAR Supercooled Large Droplet Icing Flight Research: Summary of Winter 1996-1997 Flight Operations

During the winter of 1996-1997, a flight research program was conducted at the NASA-Lewis Research Center to study the characteristics of Supercooled Large Droplets (SLD) within the Great Lakes region. This flight program was a joint effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Based on weather forecasts and real-time in-flight guidance provided by NCAR, the NASA-Lewis Icing Research Aircraft was flown to locations where conditions were believed to be conducive to the formation of Supercooled Large Droplets aloft. Onboard instrumentation was then used to record meteorological, ice accretion, and aero-performance characteristics encountered during the flight. A total of 29 icing research flights were conducted, during which "conventional" small droplet icing, SLD, and mixed phase conditions were encountered aloft. This paper will describe how flight operations were conducted, provide an operational summary of the flights, present selected experimental results from one typical research flight, and conclude with practical "lessons learned" from this first year of operation.

Miller, Dean↗

Incorporating Parallel Computing into the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS)

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining actual observations with model forecasts to produce a more accurate description of the earth system than the observations or forecast alone can provide. The output of data assimilation, sometimes called the analysis, are regular, gridded datasets of observed and unobserved variables. Analysis plays a key role in numerical weather prediction and is becoming increasingly important for climate research. These applications, and the need for timely validation of scientific enhancements to the data assimilation system pose computational demands that are best met by distributed parallel software. The mission of the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is to provide datasets for climate research and to support NASA satellite and aircraft missions. The system used to create these datasets is the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The core components of the the GEOS DAS are: the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM), the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS), the Observer, the on-line Quality Control (QC) system, the Coupler (which feeds analysis increments back to the GCM), and an I/O package for processing the large amounts of data the system produces (which will be described in another presentation in this session). The discussion will center on the following issues: the computational complexity for the whole GEOS DAS, assessment of the performance of the individual elements of GEOS DAS, and parallelization strategy for some of the components of the system.

Larson, Jay W.↗

ENVISAT Land Surface Processes

This is a progress report of the 2nd phase of the project ENVISAT- Land Surface Processes, which has a 3-year scope. In this project, preparative research is carried out aiming at the retrieval of land surface characteristics from the ENVISAT sensors MERIS and AATSR, for assimilation into a system for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). Where in the 1st phase a number of first shot experiments were carried out (aiming at gaining experience with the retrievals and data assimilation procedures), the current 2nd phase has put more emphasis on the assessment and improvement of the quality of the retrieved products. The forthcoming phase will be devoted mainly to the data assimilation experiments and the assessment of the added value of the future ENVISAT products for NWP forecast skill. Referring to the retrieval of albedo, leaf area index and atmospheric corrections, preliminary radiative transfer calculations have been carried out that should enable the retrieval of these parameters once AATSR and MERIS data become available. However, much of this work is still to be carried out. An essential part of work in this area is the design and implementation of software that enables an efficient use of MODTRAN(sub 4) radiative transfer code, and during the current project phase familiarization with these new components has been achieved. Significant progress has been made with the retrieval of component temperatures from directional ATSR-images, and the calculation of surface turbulent heat fluxes from these data. The impact of vegetation cover on the retrieved component temperatures appears manageable, and preliminary comparison of foliage temperature to air temperatures were encouraging. The calculation of surface fluxes using the SEBI concept,which includes a detailed model of the surface roughness ratio, appeared to give results that were in reasonable agreement with local measurements with scintillometer devices. The specification of the atmospheric boundary conditions appears a crucial component, and the use of first guess estimates from the RACMO models partially explains the success. Earlier data assimilation experiments with directional surface temperatures have been analysed a bit further and were also compared to results obtained from directly modeling the surface roughness ratio. Results between these calculations and the data assimilation results appeared well comparable, but a full test in which the surface roughness model is allowed to play a free role during the data assimilation process has yet to be carried out. A considerable number of tasks that have yet to be carried out during Phase 3 has been formulated.

vandenHurk, B. J. J. M.↗

Advances in Land Data Assimilation at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Research in land surface data assimilation has grown rapidly over the last decade. In this presentation we provide a brief overview of key research contributions by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The GSFC contributions to land assimilation primarily include the continued development and application of the Land Information System (US) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In particular, we have developed a method to generate perturbation fields that are correlated in space, time, and across variables and that permit the flexible modeling of errors in land surface models and observations, along with an adaptive filtering approach that estimates observation and model error input parameters. A percentile-based scaling method that addresses soil moisture biases in model and observational estimates opened the path to the successful application of land data assimilation to satellite retrievals of surface soil moisture. Assimilation of AMSR-E surface soil moisture retrievals into the NASA Catchment model provided superior surface and root zone assimilation products (when validated against in situ measurements and compared to the model estimates or satellite observations alone). The multi-model capabilities of US were used to investigate the role of subsurface physics in the assimilation of surface soil moisture observations. Results indicate that the potential of surface soil moisture assimilation to improve root zone information is higher when the surface to root zone coupling is stronger. Building on this experience, GSFC leads the development of the Level 4 Surface and Root-Zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product for the planned NASA Soil-Moisture-Active-Passive (SMAP) mission. A key milestone was the design and execution of an Observing System Simulation Experiment that quantified the contribution of soil moisture retrievals to land data assimilation products as a function of retrieval and land model skill and yielded an estimate of the error budget for the SMAP L4_SM product. Terrestrial water storage observations from GRACE satellite system were also successfully assimilated into the NASA Catchment model and provided improved estimates of groundwater variability when compared to the model estimates alone. Moreover, satellite-based land surface temperature (LST) observations from the ISCCP archive were assimilated using a bias estimation module that was specifically designed for LST assimilation. As with soil moisture, LST assimilation provides modest yet statistically significant improvements when compared to the model or satellite observations alone. To achieve the improvement, however, the LST assimilation algorithm must be adapted to the specific formulation of LST in the land model. An improved method for the assimilation of snow cover observations was also developed. Finally, the coupling of LIS to the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model enabled investigations into how the sensitivity of land-atmosphere interactions to the specific choice of planetary boundary layer scheme and land surface model varies across surface moisture regimes, and how it can be quantified and evaluated against observations. The on-going development and integration of land assimilation modules into the Land Information System will enable the use of GSFC software with a variety of land models and make it accessible to the research community.

Reichle, Rolf↗

Adjoint Estimation of Observation Impact Explored with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

In an Observing System Simulation Experiment, the full, true state of the simulated atmosphere is known. This knowledge allows the direct calculation of analysis and forecast errors, and also may be used in conjunction with an adjoint tool to calculate metrics that are unachievable in the real world. For example, the errors that result from the use of the analysis state as verification when running adjoint calculations of observation impact on a forecast can be quantified. The adjoint itself can also be used to operate on the analysis state rather than on the forecast state. Results from these and other adjoint experiments using the NASA/GMAO OSSE framework will be presented.

Prive, Nikki↗

Advances in Estimation of the Earth Orientation Parameters From Observation

Historically, a two-step procedure for estimation of Universal Time and polar motion from observations was adopted: night averages from individual observatories formed a raw non-equidistant time series that was edited for outliers, smoothed, and formed the final data product. This approach was by inertia used for processing modern space geodesy observations. I will present an alternative one-step approach and its application for processing a dataset of VLBI observations since 1990.0 through present. The essence of this approach is to represent the Earth orientation parameters in a form of an expansion into basic functions and estimate of the expansion coefficients directly from observations. A further extension of this approach is to assimilate not only space geodesy data, but atmospheric and ocean angular momentum from assimilation numerical weather models and their forecasts. That makes a smooth bridge between Earth rotation estimation and prediction. I will talk about my experience of running data analysis in such a way on a semi-operational basis, present results, and discuss advantages and disadvantages of this approach.

Leonid Petrov↗

Raman Lidar Measurements during the International HZO Project: Instrumentation and Analysis Techniques, Popular Summary - 1

The amount of water vapor in the atmosphere helps to determine the likelihood that severe storms may develop. The concentration of water vapor, though, is highly variable in space and time. And yet small changes in water vapor concentration over a short period of time or over a short spatial distance can determine whether a storm may or may not develop. Therefore, in order to improve the ability to forecast severe weather such as thunderstorms it is important to measure water vapor in the atmosphere with high spatial and temporal resolution. One of the most attractive research tools for measuring water vapor in the atmosphere with high spatial and temporal resolution is a Raman lidar. A Raman lidar consists of a laser transmitter, a telescope receiver and optics and electronics for processing opticand electronic signals. A laser pulse is emitted into the atmosphere and it interacts with molecules in the atmosphere causing them to become excited and to emit, through the Raman process, photons of different wavelength than emitted by the laser. The molecule that emitted these emitted. This is the way that a Raman lidar identifies water vapor molecules in the atmosphere. can be identified based on the wavelength of the photons One of the great challenges in Raman lidar measurements has been to make useful daytime measurements of the water vapor profile under bright daytime conditions. In this first of two papers, we describe the instrumentation and analysis of the first documented Raman lidar that is able to measure water vapor in the daytime with sufficient quality to permit the study of developing storm systems.

Whiteman, D. N.↗

Improving the Transition of Earth Satellite Observations from Research to Operations

There are significant gaps between the observations, models, and decision support tools that make use of new data. These challenges include: 1) Decreasing the time to incorporate new satellite data into operational forecast assimilation systems, 2) Blending in-situ and satellite observing systems to produce the most accurate and comprehensive data products and assessments, 3) Accelerating the transition from research to applications through national test beds, field campaigns, and pilot demonstrations, and 4) Developing the partnerships and organizational structures to effectively transition new technology into operations. At the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama, a NASA-NOAA-University collaboration has been developed to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth science observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. The SPoRT Center research focus is to improve forecasts through new observation capability and the regional prediction objectives of the US Weather Research Program dealing with 0-1 day forecast issues such as convective initiation and 24-hr quantitative precipitation forecasting. The near real-time availability of high-resolution experimental products of the atmosphere, land, and ocean from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Infrared Spectroradiometer (AIRS), and lightning mapping systems provide an opportunity for science and algorithm risk reduction, and for application assessment prior to planned observations from the next generation of operational low Earth orbiting and geostationary Earth orbiting satellites. This paper describes the process for the transition of experimental products into forecast operations, current products undergoing assessment by forecasters, and plans for the future. The SPoRT Web page is at (http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/sport).

Goodman, Steven J.↗

Use Of EOS-AURA Observation In The MERRA-2 Reanalysis

Meteorological reanalyses provide multi-year gridded datasets that describe the evolution of the atmosphere. Such products use a data assimilation system, comprising of an atmospheric model, a broad suite of observations, and an analysis system that optimally combines the model forecast with the observations, using an algorithm that includes information about model and data accuracy. The mixture of observations is of central importance to the quality of the assimilated datasets. The Modern-era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) included constraints on the thermal structure of the middle atmosphere from nadir sounders on the NOAA polar-orbiting platforms (Stratospheric Sounding Units and Advanced Microwave Sounding Units). These instruments have peak sensitivities that occur well below the stratopause. As such, the radiance measurements do not provide strong constraints on stratopause temperature. The new MERRA-2 reanalysis is using EOS-MLS temperature retrievals after they are available: it will be demonstrated that these data lead to a more realistic stratopause structure in MERRA-2 than in MERRA. Similarly, the work demonstrates the improvements in lower stratospheric ozone in MERRA-2 than in MERRA, for the period when EOS-MLS ozone data are assimilated. This improvement occurs because of the ozone profile information offered by MLS in the low stratosphere, in contrast to the SBUV/2 data used for the rest of MERRA-2. The impacts of choosing to use the EOS-MLS datasets are discussed in context of the continuity of the data record in MERRA- 2.

Meteorological↗

Coupled Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport/Weather Forecast and Research/Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model: Simulations of Tower-Based and Airborne CO2 Measurements - Part II

This paper evaluates simulations of atmospheric CO2 measured in 2004 at continental surface and airborne receptors, intended to test the capability to use data with high temporal and spatial resolution for analyses of carbon sources and sinks at regional and continental scales. The simulations were performed using the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model driven by the Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) model, and linked to surface fluxes from the satellite-driven Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM). The simulations provide detailed representations of hourly CO2 tower data and reproduce the shapes of airborne vertical profiles with high fidelity. WRF meteorology gives superior model performance compared with standard meteorological products, and the impact of including WRF convective mass fluxes in the STILT trajectory calculations is significant in individual cases. Important biases in the simulation are associated with the nighttime CO2 build-up and subsequent morning transition to convective conditions, and with errors in the advected lateral boundary condition. Comparison of STILT simulations driven by the WRF model against those driven by the Brazilian variant of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) shows that model-to-model differences are smaller than between an individual transport model and observations, pointing to systematic errors in the simulated transport. Future developments in the WRF model s data assimilation capabilities, basic research into the fundamental aspects of trajectory calculations, and intercomparison studies involving other transport models, are possible venues for reducing these errors. Overall, the STILT/WRF/VPRM offers a powerful tool for continental and regional scale carbon flux estimates.

Eluszkiewicz, Janusz↗

Wind Information Uplink to Aircraft Performing Interval Management Operations

Interval Management (IM) is an ADS-B-enabled suite of applications that use ground and flight deck capabilities and procedures designed to support the relative spacing of aircraft (Barmore et al., 2004, Murdoch et al. 2009, Barmore 2009, Swieringa et al. 2011; Weitz et al. 2012). Relative spacing refers to managing the position of one aircraft to a time or distance relative to another aircraft, as opposed to a static reference point such as a point over the ground or clock time. This results in improved inter-aircraft spacing precision and is expected to allow aircraft to be spaced closer to the applicable separation standard than current operations. Consequently, if the reduced spacing is used in scheduling, IM can reduce the time interval between the first and last aircraft in an overall arrival flow, resulting in increased throughput. Because IM relies on speed changes to achieve precise spacing, it can reduce costly, low-altitude, vectoring, which increases both efficiency and throughput in capacity-constrained airspace without negatively impacting controller workload and task complexity. This is expected to increase overall system efficiency. The Flight Deck Interval Management (FIM) equipment provides speeds to the flight crew that will deliver them to the achieve-by point at the controller-specified time, i.e., assigned spacing goal, after the target aircraft crosses the achieve-by point (Figure 1.1). Since the IM and target aircraft may not be on the same arrival procedure, the FIM equipment predicts the estimated times of arrival (ETA) for both the IM and target aircraft to the achieve-by point. This involves generating an approximate four-dimensional trajectory for each aircraft. The accuracy of the wind data used to generate those trajectories is critical to the success of the IM operation. There are two main forms of uncertainty in the wind information used by the FIM equipment. The first is the accuracy of the forecast modeling done by the weather provider. This is generally a global environmental prediction obtained from a weather model such as the Rapid Refresh (RAP) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The weather forecast data will have errors relative to the actual, or truth, winds that the aircraft will encounter. The second source of uncertainty is that only a small subset of the forecast data can be uplinked to the aircraft for use by the FIM equipment. This results in loss of additional information. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and RTCA are currently developing standards for the communication of wind and atmospheric data to the aircraft for use in NextGen operations. This study examines the impact of various wind forecast sampling methods on IM performance metrics to inform the standards development.

Ahmad, Nashat N.↗

Version 5 Release Status and Plans: AIRS Science Team

This viewgraph presentation reviews the development of version 5 of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) software. The overarching goal for version 5 is to enhance AIRS software to expand its utility for climate research and to improve the impact on weather forecasting.

focus group↗

The Land Surface in Current and Planned MERRA Reanalysis Products

Current global atmospheric reanalysis products such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), and the Japanese Reanalysis for Three Quarters of a Century (JRA-3Q) provide estimates of land surface states and fluxes, including soil moisture, soil temperature, snow mass, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and runoff, that are widely used in research and applications. These land surface estimates are based on land surface process models and, depending on the reanalysis product, on precipitation observations or the assimilation of land surface observations of soil moisture, soil temperature, snow conditions, and screen-level air temperature and humidity from satellite observations and in situ measurements. In this presentation, we review the land surface modeling and data assimilation components of the suite of current and planned MERRA reanalysis products. In addition to MERRA-2, we will discuss the latest NASA reanalysis, MERRA for the 21st century (M21C), which is currently under production, as well as the development and planning of the next version of the MERRA reanalysis, tentatively labeled MERRA-3. In MERRA-2, observations-based precipitation data products are used to correct the precipitation falling on the land surface. Outside of the high-latitudes and Africa, the daily, 0.5-degree, gauge-based Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Unified (CPCU) product is used. In Africa, the pentad, 2.5-degree, satellite- and gauge-based CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) product is used. Poleward of 62.5 degrees latitude, the land surface sees the precipitation generated by the atmospheric model in the cycling data assimilation system. This configuration provides improved soil moisture estimates compared to those of the original (version 1) MERRA estimates, which did not benefit from the use of precipitation observations. Moreover, the use of precipitation observations facilitates a seamless spin-up of the land surface initial conditions across the MERRA-2 production streams. The use of a gauge-only precipitation product in MERRA-2 across much of the globe, however, adversely impacts the quality of the MERRA-2 land surface estimates in regions with poor gauge coverage, including most of South America and Australia. Therefore, the forthcoming M21C reanalysis uses satellite- and gauge-based precipitation from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG). This change results in significant improvements in the quality of the M21C soil moisture estimates in the Southern Hemisphere compared to those from MERRA-2. Planning for MERRA-3 focuses on the assimilation of soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission and the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), along with snow cover area fraction observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to further improve the quality of the land surface estimates from the reanalysis. As a first step towards the assimilation of land surface observations in MERRA-3, the offline (land-only) M21C-Land reanalysis is currently under development as a supplemental M21C product that includes the assimilation of SMAP, ASCAT, and MODIS observations. Preliminary results from M21C and M21C-Land will be discussed in the context of MERRA-2 and plans for MERRA-3.

Rolf Reichle↗