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Recommendations Emerging from an Analysis of NASA's Deep Space Communications Capacity

During 2016-2017, NASA’s Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Office chartered a study of Deep Space Network (DSN) communications capacity relative to projected future-mission demand over the next 30 years. In this paper, we briefly describe the methodology used to analyze capacity vs. demand over such a broad timeframe, summarize key findings emerging from the analysis, and discuss the associated recommendations. Performing the analysis entailed: identifying key factors shaping the anticipated future mission set, identifying several alternative future mission set scenarios consistent with these factors, and then analyzing each mission set scenario in terms of required antenna capacity, downlink and uplink capabilities, and spectrum as a function of time. On the basis of these aggregate requirements, DSN loading simulations were then conducted that examined how well each of the postulated mission sets could load up onto the the DSN’s “in-plan” architecture. To the extent that capacity shortfalls emerged during these baseline simulations, architectural solutions to the shortfalls were then postulated and tested via additional simulations. In general, the trend analyses and baseline loading simulations indicated a significant progression in challenges over the next three decades. In the current decade, the DSN appeared to be operating very close to capacity. The first human exploration mission and its secondary payload launch opportunities for cubesats traveling beyond GEO contributed to this loading. As a consequence, the main challenge appeared to be managing peak assetcontention periods. In the next decade, the DSN continued to operate close to capacity but also began transitioning to more frequent human mission support. Upgrading for, and operating, a human-rated system while continuing to meet robotic mission customer requirements emerged as the key challenge. In the 2030’s and beyond, simulations suggested a need for fundamentally new capability and capacity. The high data rates and long link distances characteristic of human Mars exploration drove requirements far beyond what is currently “in plan.” The key challenge then became determining the most cost-effective combination of RF and optical assets for communicating with the postulated human Mars assets while still providing for the needs of all the other missions across the solar system. Various link budget, visibility, and loading analyses ultimately suggested that the human Mars exploration demands of the 2030’s could best be addressed with two cross-linked RF-optical areostationary relays (or an areostationary relay and deep space habitat) providing a dual “trunk link” to an array of 2-to-3 additional 34m beam waveguide antennas and an ~8.5m optical antenna at each DSN Complex. The dual “trunk link” would enable the same amount of total data return to Earth as a single trunk link at twice the data rate, but with only half the required array size on the ground, assuming use of Multiple Spacecraft Per Antenna (MSPA) techniques. MSPA techniques, including a Multiple Uplink Per Antenna (MUPA) technique currently under investigation, also showed promise for reducing asset contention in the decades prior to human Mars exploration.

Lee, Carlyn-Ann↗

Characterizing the Hazard of a Wake Vortex Encounter

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is conducting research with the goal of enabling safe improvements in the capacity of the nation's air transportation system. The wake vortex upset hazard is an important factor in establishing the minimum safe spacing between aircraft during landing and take-off operations, thus impacting airport capacity. Static and free-flight wind tunnel tests and flight tests have provided an extensive data set for improved understanding of vortex encounter dynamics and simulation. Piloted and batch simulation studies are also ongoing to establish a first-order hazard metric and determine the limits of an operationally acceptable wake induced upset. This paper outlines NASA's research in these areas.

Vicroy, Dan D.↗

Problems of Excess Capacity

The problems of excess capacity in the airline industry are discussed with focus on the following topics: load factors; fair rate of return on investment; service-quality rivalry among airlines; pricing (fare) policies; aircraft production; and the impacts of excess capacity on operating costs. Also included is a discussion of the interrelationships among these topics.

Douglas, G.↗

Basic results of the medical research conducted during the flight of two crews on the Salyut-5 orbital station

The study of the effect of space factors, especially weightlessness, on man, taking into account prophylactic measures and devices to counteract that effect was part of the program for two flights on the Salyut 5 orbital station. Information from the equipment on board was transmitted telemetrically including: an electrocardiogram; a sphygmogram of carotid and femoral arteries; a kinetocardiogram; a tacho-oscillogram of the humeral artery, perimetric oscillations of the femur, venous pulse and pressure in the jugular veins, vital capacity of the lungs, respiration rate and lung ventilation. Stress factors, metabolism, biological and bacteriological and other tests were included. A comparison was made between these data and pre- and postflight test result.

Source record↗

Introduction to the Bioproduct Transition Dynamics Model

The U.S. Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office has a broad understanding of different conversion processes that produce bioproducts (chemicals derived from biomass feedstocks) and the market attributes of those processes. However, bioproducts have in many cases proven to be difficult to scale up to commercial production and bring to market, and there is currently a need for greater understanding around the possible successful scenarios for advancing the bioproducts industry. Insight into the myriad factors that impact the success of individual bioproducts and the growth of the bioproducts industry will enable bioproduct stakeholders to evaluate strategies for development and investment that could achieve the greatest impact. An understanding of these factors will also enable the identification of synergies between the bioproducts and biofuels industries that occur through shared learning and co-production. The Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) model explores questions such as the following: what are the factors that separate a successful, commercially produced bioproduct like succinic acid from one that never progresses beyond bench-scale lab research? Can these factors be influenced by stakeholders, and to what extent? The BTD model uses system dynamics to capture the impacts of investor decision-making, bioproduct techno-economics, and market factors during the early stages of bioproduct development. Key components of the BTD model include techno-economic benchmarks that inform the investor decision-making process, failures and setbacks in development and the resulting need for additional work, and the impacts of effective or ineffective management during each development stage. These factors and their interactions are tracked through bench-scale laboratory research, piloting, demoing, and the construction and operation of the first commercial-scale plant. Bioproduct development is linked to the biofuels industry through a shared-learning model, enabling the benefit to biofuels from bioproduct technology and feedstock supply chain development to be quantified. A wide variety of bioproducts can be analyzed using the BTD model, including bioproducts that have been developed through economic or policy-driven mechanisms, and those with either niche (low volume) or scalable (high volume) markets. The BTD model also has the potential to apply to technology development processes outside the bioproducts industry; background research performed for this project has shown that the early stages of technology development are similar, and impacted by similar factors, regardless of the exact industry. This presentation will cover the BTD model logic, input data, validation process, and results of a sensitivity analysis based on techno-economic data for succinic acid. The sensitivity analysis was performed to identify factors with the largest impact on the eventual success or failure of a bioproduct. Results indicate that management effectiveness, which affects how efficiently money spent is converted into technological advancements, is the single most important factor in determining whether a bioproduct reaches commercial-scale production. The capacity of the first commercial plant and the type of biomass feedstock used, as well as the presence of government support in the form of cost-sharing, were also identified as significant factors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A System Dynamics Model of Early-Stage Transition Dynamics in the Bioproducts Industry

The U.S. Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office has a broad understanding of different conversion processes that produce bioproducts (chemicals derived from biomass feedstocks) and the techno-economic attributes of those processes. However, bioproducts have in many cases proven to be difficult to scale up to commercial production, and there is currently a need for greater understanding around the possible successful scenarios for advancing the bioproducts industry. Insight into the myriad factors that impact the success of individual bioproducts and the growth of the bioproducts industry will enable bioproduct stakeholders to evaluate strategies for development and investment that could achieve the greatest impact. An understanding of these factors will also enable the identification of synergies between the bioproducts and biofuels industries that occur through shared learning and co-production. The Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) model explores questions such as the following: what are the factors that separate a successful, commercially produced bioproduct like succinic acid from one that never progresses beyond bench-scale lab research? Can these factors be influenced by stakeholders, and to what extent? The BTD model uses system dynamics to capture the impacts of investor decision-making, bioproduct techno-economics, and end use factors during the early stages of bioproduct development. Key components of the BTD model include techno-economic benchmarks that inform the investor decision-making process, failures and setbacks in development and the resulting need for additional work, and the impacts of effective or ineffective management during each development stage. These factors and their interactions are tracked through bench-scale laboratory research, piloting, demoing, and the construction and operation of the first commercial-scale plant. Bioproduct development is linked to the biofuels industry through a shared-learning model, enabling the benefit to biofuels from bioproduct technology and feedstock supply chain development to be quantified. A wide variety of bioproducts can be analyzed using the BTD model, including bioproducts that have been developed through economic or policy-driven mechanisms, and those with either niche (low volume) or scalable (high volume) demand. The BTD model also has the potential to apply to technology development processes outside the bioproducts industry; background research performed for this project has shown that the early stages of technology development are similar, and impacted by similar factors, regardless of the exact industry. This presentation will cover the BTD model logic, input data, validation process, and results of a sensitivity analysis based on techno-economic data for succinic acid. The sensitivity analysis was performed to identify factors with the largest impact on the eventual success or failure of a bioproduct. Results indicate that management effectiveness, which affects how efficiently money spent is converted into technological advancements, is the single most important factor in determining whether a bioproduct reaches commercial-scale production. The capacity of the first commercial plant and the type of biomass feedstock used, as well as the presence of government support in the form of cost-sharing, were also identified as significant factors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Lunar power system summary of studies for the lunar enterprise task force NASA-office of exploration

The capacity of global power systems must be increased by a factor of ten to provide the predicted power needs of electric power by the year 2050. The Lunar Power System (LPS) would collect solar energy at power bases located on opposing limbs of the moon as seen from Earth. LPS can provide dependable, economic, renewable, and environmentally benign solar energy to Earth. A preliminary engineering and cash flow model of the LPS was developed. Results are shown for a system scaled to a peak capacity of 355 GWe on Earth and to provide 13,600 GWe-Yrs of energy over a 70 year life cycle of construction and full operation. The growth in capacity of the reference system from start of installation on the moon in 2005 to completion of its nominal life cycle in the year 2070 is shown. World needs for power could be accommodated by expansion in capacity of the reference LPS beyond 344 GWe. This would be done by steadily incorporating newer technology during full operation and by establishing additional bases. The results presented encourage consideration of a faster paced program than is assumed herein.

Criswell, David R.↗

Impacts of Biogas-to-Electricity Purchase Incentive on Electric Vehicle Market Penetration

The biogas-to-electricity pathway under the Renewable Fuel Standards allows for Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits to be generated when electricity produced from biogas is used in the transportation sector. This study describes and evaluates a potential credit allocation method under that pathway that distributes electricity RIN (E-RIN) credits between electricity generators and plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) users and assesses the impact on EV deployment. In this study, one part of the credit value is allocated to electricity generators to offset potential higher biogas electricity generation cost, measured by the levelized cost of electricity. The other part of credit value is allocated to consumers in terms of the PEV purchase incentive to stimulate PEV sales. An iterative simulation procedure is developed to fulfill two tasks: (1) one task is to estimate the incentive amount based on various factors, such as vehicle mileage, E-RIN equivalence value, and biogas capacity, and (2) the other task is to evaluate potential impacts of the E-RIN program on electrification of the future light duty vehicle fleet and energy use. Results indicate that the E-RIN program can significantly increase PEV market share by up to 2.3 million in sales and by up to 19.7 million in fleet size in 2030. However, effectiveness of the program is subject to different factors, such as the E-RIN equivalence value, biogas electricity generation cost, biogas electricity generation capacity, and potential competition in E-RIN credits by other entities.

Xie, Fei↗

Robo-line storage: Low latency, high capacity storage systems over geographically distributed networks

Rapid advances in high performance computing are making possible more complete and accurate computer-based modeling of complex physical phenomena, such as weather front interactions, dynamics of chemical reactions, numerical aerodynamic analysis of airframes, and ocean-land-atmosphere interactions. Many of these 'grand challenge' applications are as demanding of the underlying storage system, in terms of their capacity and bandwidth requirements, as they are on the computational power of the processor. A global view of the Earth's ocean chlorophyll and land vegetation requires over 2 terabytes of raw satellite image data. In this paper, we describe our planned research program in high capacity, high bandwidth storage systems. The project has four overall goals. First, we will examine new methods for high capacity storage systems, made possible by low cost, small form factor magnetic and optical tape systems. Second, access to the storage system will be low latency and high bandwidth. To achieve this, we must interleave data transfer at all levels of the storage system, including devices, controllers, servers, and communications links. Latency will be reduced by extensive caching throughout the storage hierarchy. Third, we will provide effective management of a storage hierarchy, extending the techniques already developed for the Log Structured File System. Finally, we will construct a protototype high capacity file server, suitable for use on the National Research and Education Network (NREN). Such research must be a Cornerstone of any coherent program in high performance computing and communications.

Katz, Randy H.↗

A Numerical Simulation Study to Develop an Acceptable Wake Encounter Boundary for a B737-100 Airplane

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is conducting research with the goal of enabling safe improvements in the capacity of the nation's air transportation system. The wake-vortex upset hazard is an important factor in establishing the minimum safe spacing between aircraft during landing and take-off operations, thus impacting airport capacity. A batch simulation study was conducted to assess the sensitivity of various safe landing criteria in the development of an acceptable wake encounter boundary. A baseline six-degree-of-freedom simulation of a B737-100 airplane was modified to include a wake model and the vortex-induced forces and moments. The guidance and control input for the airplane was provided by an auto-land system. The wake strength and encounter geometry were varied. A sensitivity study was also conducted to assess the effects of encounter modeling methods and accuracy.

Vicroy, Dan D.↗

Optimization of harvest and logistics for multiple lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks in the northeastern United States

A mixed-integer linear programming model was developed to optimize the multiple biomass feedstock supply chains, including feedstock establishment, harvest, storage, transportation, and preprocessing. The model was applied for analyses of multiple biomass feedstocks at county level for 13 states in the northeastern United States. In the base case with a demand of 180,000 dry Mg/year of biomass, the delivered costs ranged from $\$67.90$ to $\$86.97$ per dry Mg with an average of $\$79.58$ /dry Mg. The biomass delivered costs by county were from $\$67.90$ to 150.81 per dry Mg across the northeastern U.S. Considered the entire study area, the delivered cost averaged $\$85.30$ /dry Mg for forest residues, $\$84.47$ /dry Mg for hybrid willow, $\$99.68$ for switchgrass and $\$97.87$ per dry Mg for Miscanthus. Seventy seven out of 387 counties could be able to deliver biomass at $84 per dry Mg or less a target set by US DOE by 2022. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to evaluate the effects of feedstock availability, feedstock price, moisture content, procurement radius, and facility demand on the delivered cost. Lastly, our results showed that procurement radius, facility capacity, and forest residue availability were the most sensitive factors affecting the biomass delivered costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

In situ Fe-sulfide coating for arsenic removal under reducing conditions

An in situ Fe-sulfide coating approach has been developed for As-contaminated groundwater remediation. Alternate injection of Fe(II), O 2 -free water and S 2$-$ can realize Fe-sulfide coating onto quartz sands with minor changes in porosity. As(III) uptake experiment indicated that the retardation factor for As(III) was 37 and dynamic retention capacity was 44.94 mg As(III)/g Fe, which was much higher than the maximum adsorption capacity for As(III) by FeS and FeS 2 . This result indicated that adsorption cannot be the only mechanism for As(III) uptake by Fe-sulfide coating layer. The SEM image and FTIR spectra results suggested that interaction between As(III) and Fe-sulfides and formation of As-sulfide precipitates could significantly contribute to As(III) uptake by Fe-sulfide coating layer. Alternate injection of Fe(II) + As(III) and S 2$-$ was conducted to simulate in situ As immobilization from real groundwater. The SEM image showed that the quartz sands were mainly covered by crystalline framboidal pyrite after such amendment. The breakthrough of As(III) was not observed during this experiment and the removal capacity for As(III) was 109.7 mg As/g Fe. The As(III) immobilization mechanism during alternate injection of Fe(II) + As(III) and S 2$-$ was significantly different from that of As(III) uptake by Fe-sulfide coating. The direct interaction between As(III) and S 2$-$ produced As-sulfides contributed to the high As(III) removal capacity during alternate injection of Fe(II) + As(III) and S 2$-$ . This result indicated that alternate injection of Fe(II) and S 2$-$ approach has an attractive application for As-contaminated groundwater remediation under strongly reducing environment.

Arsenic contamination↗

Model predictive control of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems: A state-of-the-art review

Due to the fast advancement of communication and information technology, intelligent buildings have garnered great interest. These buildings can forecast weather, ambient temperature, and sun irradiation and can modify heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) operations appropriately, based on current and previous data. This change is intended to reduce HVAC system energy usage while maintaining an appropriate degree of thermal comfort and indoor air quality. Since its inception, model predictive control (MPC) has been one of the prospective solutions for HVAC management systems to reduce both costs and energy usage. Additionally, MPC is becoming increasingly practical as the processing capacity of building automation systems increases and a large quantity of monitored building data becomes available. MPC also provides the potential to improve the energy efficiency of HVAC systems via its capacity to consider limitations, to predict disruptions, and to factor in multiple competing goals such as interior thermal comfort and building energy consumption. Although substantial research has been conducted on MPC in building HVAC systems, there is a shortage of critical reviews and a lack of a comprehensive framework that formulates and defines the applications. Here, this article provides a comprehensive state-of-the-art overview of MPC in HVAC systems. Detailed discussions of modeling approaches and optimization algorithms are included. Numerous design aspects such as prediction horizon, occupancy behavior, building type, and cost function, that impact MPC performance are discussed in detail. The technical characteristics, advantages, and disadvantages of various types of modeling software are discussed. The primary objective of this work is to highlight critical design characteristics for the MPC control scheme and to give improved suggestions for future research. Moreover, numerous prospective scenarios have been suggested that might provide future research direction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Al2O3 Atomic Layer Deposition on Nanostructured γ-Mg(BH4)2 for H2 Storage

In the context of the growing hydrogen (H 2 ) economy, the demand for H 2 storage materials is high, and metal borohydrides are of particular interest. Magnesium borohydride, Mg(BH 4 ) 2 , has one of the highest hydrogen capacities of all known metal hydrides (14.9 wt % H) but suffers from high operating temperatures, slow kinetics for (de)hydrogenation, and the loss of capacity upon cycling. Strategies to address these challenges include nanoencapsulation and the use of chemical additives. This work is the first to utilize these two strategies simultaneously by using atomic layer deposition (ALD). For this new approach to modify borohydrides, we chose the well-studied Al 2 O 3 ALD process using trimethylaluminum and water. Although there has been limited use of aluminum-based additives for Mg(BH 4 ) 2 , we demonstrate that the low-temperature H 2 capacity was doubled, desorption kinetics were increased by a factor of 3, and 100 cycles of Al 2 O 3 suppressed the release of diborane compared to the uncoated Mg(BH4)2. We identified that the use of trimethylaluminum and water in the ALD process affected the decomposition pathway and that the Al 2 O 3 film growth is dominated by infiltration due to the high porosity of the ..gamma..-phase Mg(BH 4 ) 2 . From these results, the potential of ALD as a method to functionalize solid-state H 2 storage materials is inferred, and recommendations for future ALD processes are presented.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Zero-Emission Transit Bus Needs Assessment

The transition to zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs) in public transit has gained traction due to significant federal investments from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This needs assessment, commissioned by the Joint Office of Energy and Transportation and conducted by researchers at the Idaho National Laboratory, explores the current state of electrification in transit agencies, identifying barriers to implementation, potential funding sources, and operational considerations necessary for a successful transition. The assessment involved qualitative interviews with representatives from 19 transit service providers across diverse geographic regions. Key findings highlight the challenges related to bus facilities and operations, which require careful planning for charging infrastructure and maintenance capabilities to accommodate battery electric buses (BEBs) and hydrogen fuel cell buses (HFCBs). Agencies reported operational hurdles due to the shorter range of BEBs compared to diesel buses, necessitating revised scheduling and routing strategies. Despite these challenges, many agencies expressed optimism about their capacity to adapt. Funding availability emerged as a critical factor influencing the transition to ZEVs. While agencies welcomed increased financial support, particularly from the Low or No Emission Grant Program (Lo-No), concerns about the sustainability of this funding and the ongoing operational costs were prevalent. The need for a comprehensive funding inventory was underscored to ensure transit agencies are aware of all available resources. Technological constraints were significant barriers to ZEV adoption. The limited range of BEBs was frequently cited as a concern, leading to operational challenges and reliability issues. Agencies reported difficulties in sourcing replacement parts, which exacerbated downtime and maintenance challenges. Workforce development and training were identified as pivotal for a successful transition. Many agencies rely heavily on manufacturers for technician training, highlighting the need for scalable training programs that equip staff with the necessary skills to maintain electric powertrains effectively. This assessment offers actionable recommendations for the Joint Office, including enhancing outreach to transit agencies, developing resources for effective utility partnerships, and facilitating comprehensive training programs. Establishing a zero-emission bus evaluation program to track performance metrics such as cost, range, and reliability could provide valuable insights for transit agencies. The needs assessment provides a detailed examination of the challenges and opportunities facing transit agencies in their transition to zero-emissions bus fleets. By addressing these issues through targeted support, stakeholders can collaboratively work towards a cleaner, more sustainable public transportation system that benefits all communities.

33 - ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Improving the Power Outage Resilience of Buildings with Solar PV through the Use of Battery Systems and EV Energy Storage

Buildings with solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and a stationary battery energy storage system (BESS) may self-sustain an uninterrupted full-level electricity supply during power outages. The duration of off-grid operation is dependent on the time of the power fault and the capabilities of the home energy management system (HEMS). In this paper, building resilience is quantified by analyzing the self-sustainment duration for all possible power outages throughout an entire year. An evaluation method is proposed and exercised on a reference house in California climate zone 9 for which the detailed electricity usage is simulated using the EnergyPlus software. The influence of factors such as energy use behavioral patterns, energy storage capacity from the BESS, and an electric vehicle (EV) battery on the building resilience is evaluated. Varying combinations of energy storage and controllable loads are studied for optimally improved resilience based on user preferences. It is shown that for the target home and region with a solar PV system of 7.2 kW, a BESS with a capacity of 11 kWh, and an EV with a battery of 80 kWh permanently connected to the home, off-grid self-sustained full operation is guaranteed for at least 72 h.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Experimental Studies on Wood Pellets Combustion in a Fixed Bed Combustor Using Taguchi Method

The combustion of wood pellets in a fixed bed combustor of a 20 kW capacity domestic pellet boiler was tested according to several factors including Power, Excess Air (EA), Primary/Secondary air Split Ratio (SR) and Grate Area (GA). The Taguchi method was applied to program the experimental design. Several parameters were measured, including gas emissions (CO), fuel bed temperature (measured at 4 different heights), and efficiency. The experimental results show that the lower CO emission and the higher efficiency were obtained at medium thermal loads and the highest temperature on the fuel bed was obtained at about ¼ of its height (15 mm). The results obtained from the analysis of variance (ANOVA) show that the SR and the Power are the most important factors contributing to the CO reduction and also increase the fuel bed temperature.

Castro, Carlos↗

The internal reference source (IRS) for diffuse infrared background experiment (DIRBE)

A means is described for providing internal calibration for the detectors for DIRBE, which is the Diffuse Infrared Background Experiment (a part of the Cosmic Background Explorer). The internal reference source (IRS) that is used consists of four thermal graybody sources coupled to an integrating sphere. The relative insensitivity of the DIRBE bolometers and the linear temperature dependence of the Rayleigh-Jeans law made bolometer stimulation over five orders of magnitude difficult, so four different sources were used with emitting areas varying by a factor of 10 to the 8th. A low heat capacity design with the necessary stability appears to be thin nichrome films on a sapphire substrate. Voltage stability to 0.01 percent is required for those near infrared bands that required stimulation on the Wien portion of the blackbody curve.

Silverglate, P.↗