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DOE OSTI2020

A New Method for Ice-Ice Aggregation in the Adaptive Habit Model

In this paper, a novel methodology for modeling ice-ice aggregation is presented. This methodology combines a modified hydrodynamic collection algorithm with bulk aggregate characteristic information from an offline simulator that collects ice particles, namely, the Ice Particle and Aggregate Simulator, and has been implemented into the Adaptive Habit Microphysics scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Aggregates, or snow, are formed via collection of cloud ice particles, where initial ice characteristics and the resulting geometry determine aggregate characteristics. Upon implementation, idealized squall-line simulations are performed to examine the new methodology in comparison with commonly used bulk microphysics schemes. It is found that the adaptive habit aggregation parameterization develops snow and reduces ice mass and number concentrations compared to other schemes. The development of aggregates through the new methodology cascades into other interesting effects, including enhancements in ice and snow growth, as well as homogeneous freezing. Further microphysical analyses reveal varying sensitivities, where snow processes are most sensitive to the new parameterization, followed by ice, then cloud, rain, and graupel processes. Further, the new scheme results in enhancements in surface precipitation due to the persistence of snow at lower altitudes. This persistence is a result of shape-dependent melting and sublimation, increasing the residence time. Moreover, these low-level enhancements are reflected in increases in radar reflectivity at the surface and its spatial distribution. Finally, the ability to predict snow shape and density allows for the simulation of polarimetric radar quantities, resulting in signature enhancements compared to schemes that do not consider spatial and temporal variations in snow shape and density.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimization of Energy Flow through Synthetic Metabolic Modules and Regulatory Networks in a Model Photosynthetic Eukaryotic Microbe

Photosynthetic organisms have recently gained considerable attention for a role in development of renewable energy sources. Genome-enabled systems biology methods, coupled with functional and synthetic genomics, present opportunities to develop sustainable and economical applications such as fuel production within the next 10 to 15 years. However, optimization of light-driven metabolism for biomass or biofuel production will require a detailed systems biology understanding of photosynthetic processes and cellular metabolism. Genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs) are at the core of systems analysis of cellular processes and form a common organizational framework for analyses of data resulting from functional genomics experimental work and computational studies. Therefore, there is a clear demand for high quality photosynthetic model organisms and the appropriate computational tools that enable systems analysis of light-driven metabolism. Through research conducted we expanded the currently available repertoire of photosynthetic GEMs to include the commercially valuable model diatom Phaeoctylum tricornutum. Diatoms have a peculiar and distinct evolutionary footprint and represent a major eukaryotic lineage that is taxonomically and functionally distinct from green and red algae and vascular plants. Therefore, the true potential for light-driven metabolism aimed at biofuel production remains poorly understood at a systems level for a large subset of the global diversity of photosynthetic organisms. The metabolic capabilities of P. tricornutum were comparatively modeled with those from other photosynthetic groups in order to elucidate the occurrence of metabolic traits within and between phototrophs. Additionally, this research resulted in significant extension of the COnstraints Based Reconstruction and Analysis (COBRA) Toolbox to accommodate the crucial need for infrastructure required for ‘omics data integration and analysis in the context of genome-scale models. Therefore, the proposed research achieved two important goals. First, within the broad scope of photosynthetic organisms, we functionally compared and, as a result, identified cellular processes that require optimization in order to enable deployment as biofuel feedstock. Second, the proposed research resulted in development of key computational infrastructure, which can be further extended to other biological systems, that is currently lacking but necessary for multiple ‘omics data integration.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Generalized Approach to Aircraft Trajectory Prediction via Supervised Deep Learning

As research advances diverse forms and missions of aircraft, the National Airspace System (NAS) will become increasingly crowded, limiting current communications resources to accommodate aviation operations. Ongoing research proposes a paradigm of airspace communications, such that resources are autonomously and dynamically allocated via intelligent agents; this allocation requires accurate representations of the NAS, including the predicted positions of aircraft. State-of-the-art research emphasizes the importance of a hybrid-recurrent framework for trajectory prediction and compares the impact of commonly considered weather data on prediction accuracy. However, current research has been limited in its scope of efforts, frequently utilizing a unique flight route, architecture, set of weather data, and date range. This article considers the challenges of generalizing hybrid-recurrent predictive models for flight trajectories. Results illustrate an increase in error variance when identical models are trained over a generalized set of flights; this may be mitigated with careful tuning of hyperparameters, both in the network structure and optimization algorithms. Even so, an irreducible vertical error was identified, resulting from the complex takeoff and landing procedures which can not be correlated to functions of weather or additional assumptions of aircraft behavior. Finally, the use of a test route indicates that generalized models still do not possess sufficient knowledge for general aircraft predictions, with mean error increases ranging from 70-500%. These results illustrate the need for continued efforts on improving model versatility, as well as potential limitations for spectrum allocation near airports and other centers.

Nathan Schimpf↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Large-Scale Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations of Aerospace Configurations on the Frontier Exascale System

Over the past fifteen years, the high performance computing landscape has undergone a seismic shift in both hardware and software paradigms, which has been necessary to realize a 1000× leap in computational performance while meeting stringent constraints on power consumption. A historical overview of a long-term research effort aimed at addressing these challenges within the context of a commonly-used aerospace computational fluid dynamics (CFD) application is presented. Details of the current implementation as they relate to the new era of exascale-relevant hardware architectures and programming models are described. Two large-scale simulations of aerospace configurations are performed using the entire Frontier exascale system, currently ranked as the most powerful supercomputing system in the world. The effort serves to address a 2024 milestone posed a decade ago by the seminal CFD Vision 2030 Study.

Eric J Nielsen↗

DOE OSTI2024

High Penetration Microgrids Providing Grid Stability Using Frequency-Watt Control Presentation

The U.S. grid is rapidly transitioning towards utilizing inverter-based renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, and batteries, reducing the carbon emission footprint.Inverter-based microgrid control architectures remain a critical focus to address power system stability issues in future high penetration markets lacking spinning generation assets. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is researching an active layered inverter based frequency-Watt control scheme that provides distribution level stability in high-penetration markets where grid inertia is lacking. Hardware in the loop case study was implemented using INL’s Microgrid Testbed to combat scalable frequency deviations ranging from 60 Hz down to 50 Hz initialized by a hydropower model implementing step loads using a 540-kW grid emulator. Our research findings demonstrate the importance of distribution level, inverter-based active frequency-Watt controls utilizing a battery energy storage system (BESS) to provide adequate frequency support at the point of common coupling without major power infrastructure upgrades.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enabling Data Exchange and Data Integration with the Common Information Model: An Introduction for Power Systems Engineers and Application Developers

The Common Information Model (CIM) is an open-source information model that is used to model an electrical network and the various equipment used on the network. CIM is widely used for data exchange of bulk transmission power systems and is finding increasing use for distribution systems. Use of a non-proprietary information model (such as CIM) that has been agreed upon and adopted by numerous utilities, vendors, and researchers allows significant reduction in the effort and cost of data integration. Likewise, adoption of open data platforms built around the CIM increases available functionalities for managing and optimizing the smart grid of the future. This report is intended as an introduction to CIM for utility engineers, power systems researchers, and application developers, providing a broad view of the CIM and how particular profiles can be adapted for various use cases. Unlike most other CIM introduction documents and the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) standards (which are mostly targeted to an audience of data scientists, enterprise database managers, and platform developers), this report is intended for users of traditional power systems analysis software and other readers without any prior experience with canonical information models, data profiles, or UML modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1995

SAVS: A Space and Atmospheric Visualization Science system

The research environment faced by space and atmospheric scientists in the 1990s is characterized by unprecedented volumes of new data, by ever-increasing repositories of unexploited mission files, and by the widespread use of empirical and large-scale computational models needed for the synthesis of understanding across data sets and discipline boundaries. The effective analysis and interpretation of such massive amounts of information have become the subjects of legitimate concern. With SAVS (a Space and Atmospheric Visualization Science System), we address these issues by creating a 'push-button' software environment that mimics the logical scientific processes in data acquisition, reduction, and analysis without requiring a detailed understanding of the methods, networks, and modules that link the tools and effectively execute the functions. SAVS provides (1) a customizable framework for accessing a powerful set of visualization tools based on the popular AVS visualization software with hooks to PV-Wave and access to Khoros modules, (2) a set of mathematical and statistical tools, (3) an extensible library of discipline-specific functions and models (e.g., MSIS, IRI, Feldstein Oval, IGRF, satellite tracking with CADRE-3, etc.), and (4) capabilities for local and remote data base access. The system treats scalar, vector, and image data, and runs on most common Unix workstations. We present a description of SAVS and its components, followed by several applications based on generic research interests in interplanetary and magnetospheric physics (IMP/ISTP), active experiments in space (CRRES), and mission planning focused on the Earth's thermospheric, ionospheric, and mesospheric domains (TIMED).

Szuszczewicz, E. P.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Simulating the Effect of Space Vehicle Environments on Directional Solidification of a Binary Alloy

Space microgravity missions are designed to provide a microgravity environment for scientific experiments, but these missions cannot provide a perfect environment, due to vibrations caused by crew activity, on-board experiments, support systems (pumps, fans, etc.), periodic orbital maneuvers, and water dumps. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the impact of these vibrations on space experiments, prior to performing them. Simulations were conducted to study the effect of the vibrations on the directional solidification of a dendritic alloy. Finite element ca!cu!attie?ls were dme with a simd2titcr based on a continuum model of dendritic solidification, using the Fractional Step Method (FSM). The FSM splits the solution of the momentum equation into two steps: the viscous intermediate step, which does not enforce continuity; and the inviscid projection step, which calculates the pressure and enforces continuity. The FSM provides significant computational benefits for predicting flows in a directionally solidified alloy, compared to other methods presently employed, because of the efficiency gains in the uncoupled solution of velocity and pressure. finite differences, arises when the interdendritic liquid reaches the eutectic temperature and concentration. When a node reaches eutectic temperature, it is assumed that the solidification of the eutectic liquid continues at constant temperature until all the eutectic is solidified. With this approach, solidification is not achieved continuously across an element; rather, the element is not considered solidified until the eutectic isotherm overtakes the top nodes. For microgravity simulations, where the convection is driven by shrinkage, it introduces large variations in the fluid velocity. When the eutectic isotherm reaches a node, all the eutectic must be solidified in a short period, causing an abrupt increase in velocity. To overcome this difficulty, we employed a scheme to numerically predict a more accurate value for the rate of change of fraction of liquid as the liquid in an element solidifies. The new method enables us to contrast results of simulations in which the alloy is subjected to no gravity or a steady-state acceleration versus simulations when the alloy is subjected to vibration disturbances; therefore, the effect of vibration disturbances can be assessed more accurately. To assess the impact of these vibration-perturbations, transient accelerometer data from a space shuttle mission are used as inputs for the simulation model. These on-orbit acceleration data were obtained from the Microgravity Science Division at Glenn Research Center (GRC- MSD) and are applied to the buoyancy term of the momentum equation in a simulation of a Pb-5.8 wt. % Sb alloy that solidifies in a thermal gradient of 4000 K/m and a translation velocity of 3 p d s . Figure 2 shows the vertical velocity of a node that begins in the all-liquid region and subsequently solidifies; the vibrations are applied at 5000 seconds in this simulation. An important difficulty, common to all solidification models based on finite elements or 2 The magnitudes of the velocity oscillations that are vibration-induced are very small and acceptable. The biggest concern is whether the concentration of the liquid near the dendrite tips is distorted because of the vibration-induced perturbations. Results for this case show no concentration oscillations present in the all-liquid region.

Westra, D. G.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Vitality models found useful in modeling tag-failure times in acoustic-tag survival studies

Abstract Acoustic telemetry studies often rely on the assumption that premature tag failure does not affect the validity of inferences. However, in some cases this assumption is possibly or likely invalid and it is necessary to apply a correction to estimation procedures. The question of which approaches and specific models are best suited to modeling acoustic tag failures has received little research attention. In this short communication, we present a meta-analysis of 42 acoustic tag-life studies, originally used to correct survival studies involving outmigrating juvenile salmonids in the Columbia/Snake river basin. We compare the performance of nine alternative parametric models including common failure–time/survival models and the vitality models of Li and Anderson Theor Popul Biol 76:118–131, (2009) and Demogr Res 28:341–372, (2013). The tag-life studies used acoustic tags from three different tag manufacturers, had expected lifetimes between 12 and 61 days, and had dry weights ranging from 0.22 to 1.65 g. In 57% of the cases, the vitality models of Li and Anderson Theor Popul Biol 76:118–131, (2009) and Demogr Res 28:341–372, (2013) fit the tag-failure times best. The vitality models were also the second-best choices in 17% of the cases. Together, the vitality models, log-logistic, (19%), and gamma models (14%) accounted for 90% of the models selected. Unlike more traditional failure–time models (e.g., Weibull, Gompertz, gamma, and log-logistic), the vitality models are capable of characterizing both the early onset of tag failure due to manufacturing errors and the anticipated battery life. We provide further guidance on appropriate sample sizes (50–100 tags) and procedures to be considered when applying precise tag-life corrections in release–recapture survival studies.

Skalski, John R. (ORCID:0000000270702505)↗

NASA NTRS2009

A Future State for NASA Laboratories - Working in the 21st Century

The name "21 st Century Laboratory" is an emerging concept of how NASA (and the world) will conduct research in the very near future. Our approach is to carefully plan for significant technological changes in products, organization, and society. The NASA mission can be the beneficiary of these changes, provided the Agency prepares for the role of 21st Century laboratories in research and technology development and its deployment in this new age. It has been clear for some time now that the technology revolutions, technology "mega-trends" that we are in the midst of now, all have a common element centered around advanced computational modeling of small scale physics. Whether it is nano technology, bio technology or advanced computational technology, all of these megatrends are converging on science at the very small scale where it is profoundly important to consider the quantum effects at play with physics at that scale. Whether it is the bio-technology creation of "nanites" designed to mimic our immune system or the creation of nanoscale infotechnology devices, allowing an order of magnitude increase in computational capability, all involve quantum physics that serves as the heart of these revolutionary changes.

Kegelman, Jerome T.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transforming ENERGY through Computational Excellence

Computational methods underpin advancing the science and engineering of energy efficiency, sustainable transportation, renewable power technologies, and developing a knowledge base to optimize energy systems. Researchers with access to enough computing, and the right type, can focus their ingenuity and creativity on addressing the energy challenges. NREL’s advanced computing influence spans several common themes across the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), including materials discovery, process modeling, fluid dynamics, resource mapping, and analysis of large-scale systems with real-time optimization.

advanced computing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Buffer-IPyC separation process in TRISO fuel particles simulated with Bison code

During High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) operation, tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated-particle fuel undergoes irradiation-induced changes in morphology and thermomechanical properties. Experimental results from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification Program show, among other things, the mechanism of gap formation between the buffer and inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) layers, which could be explored further via computational simulations using the Bison code. Two simulation models were developed, the debonding restricted model, where no gap formation between buffer and IPyC layers is permitted, and the debonding enabled model, where the gap between those layers is created. The inputs of the simulated models are based on the irradiation conditions from the AGR-1 experiment. The research included simulations on spherical and aspherical fuel types. Under the specific temperatures and fluences of the AGR-1 irradiation experiment, and the Bison simulations, it was concluded that the most common scenario is a gap formation along the buffer-IPyC interface, while the least possible scenario is the situation where there is no gap formation at the buffer-IPyC junction. The computational results confirmed that the sphericity of the fuel influences the thickness of the gap that occurs at the buffer-IPyC junction, in a way that with increasing aspect ratio the gap thickness increases. The results obtained for spherical and aspherical fuel are nearly identical. Finally, performed simulations match conclusions observed from the AGR-1 experiment, which as such shows that the Bison code is a good computational method for simulating the TRISO fuel. Future simulations will include the validation of performed research and comparison of the results between Bison and PARFUME codes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1987

A structural model for composite rotor blades and lifting surfaces

Composite material systems are currently candidates for aerospace structures, primarily for the design flexibiity they offer i.e., it is possible to tailor the material and manufacturing approach to the application. Two notable examples are the wing of the Grumman/USAF/DARPA X-29 and rotor blades under development by the U.S.A. Aerostructures Directorate (AVSCOM), Langley Research Center. A working definition of elastic or structural tailoring is the use of structural concept, fiber orientation, ply stacking sequence, and a blend of materials to achieve specific performance goals. In the design process, choices of materials and dimensions are made which produce specific response characteristics which permit the selected goals to be achieved. Common choices for tailoring goals are preventing instabilities or vibration resonances or enhancing damage tolerance. An essential, enabling factor in the design of tailored composite structures is structural modeling that accurately, but simply, characterizes response. The objective of this paper is to improve the single-cell beam model for composite rotor blades or lifting surfaces and to demonstrate its usefullness in applications.

Rehfield, Lawrence W.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermodynamic Model and Initial Experimental Investigation of Air Dehumidification through Electrically Charged Vapor Capturing Electrostatic Droplets

The removal of water vapor from the air to reduce relative humidity is a well known indoor environmental comfort requirement. Common dehumidification approaches require a substantial amount of energy and usually involve the cooling of atmospheric humid air below its dew point or the use of absorbent/adsorbent materials to extract water vapor out of the air. More recently, researchers investigated the effect of electrostatic forces for enhancing water vapor condensation with the goal to reduce the energy consumption associated with dehumidification. However, the studies are limited, and there is a lack of correlations that can predict the dehumidification rate. In this thesis, a broad theoretical investigation to study the electrostatically enhanced condensation processes was carried out. These processes consist of the use of highly charged particles, preferably highly charged water droplets to attract polar water vapor molecules to their surfaces and promote condensation, a phenomenon known as dielectrophoresis. The electrical charge promotes the reduction of the vapor pressure on the droplets' surface with respect to the saturated pressure predicted by the Kelvin equation on curved surfaces and, consequently, the equilibrium between evaporation and condensation is shifted towards condensation. This investigation resulted in the development of a thermodynamics model, which was able to predict an effective size range of the charged droplets for optimal dehumidification, under ideal conditions. The range resulted in about 2 to 4 m in diameter, while the electrical charge was kept to the maximum limit predicted by the Rayleigh model. A sensitivity analysis on the variation of the size and the charge of the charged droplets was also performed. In terms of dehumidification rates, when six electrospray heads, i.e. the maximum number of heads tested in the experimental campaign, were considered, the model predicted very limited rates, way lower than the target of this research, i.e. a dehumidification rate in terms of relative humidity of 5 % with an air flow rate of 5 cfm. While ways to increase this rate existed, their implementation proved difficult for this initial investigation. According to the requirements predicted by the model, the use of electrosprays appeared the most suitable solution for the production of small but highly charged droplets. The electrospray features and operational modes were studied in detail and an electrospray assembly was designed to be tested in this initial experimental investigation. For this initial investigation, an experimental system was designed and built to validate the thermodynamics model and with the goal to achieve a dehumidification rate of 5 % in terms of relative humidity with an air flow rate of 5 cfm. The experimental system consisted of a wind tunnel test apparatus, dew point sensors, thermocouples for temperature measurements, pressure sensors and other devices. The experimental system was equipped with a computerized data acquisition and storage system. The system was suitable to evaluate the air water content differential before and after the test section where the electrospray heads were installed. The air water content differential was evaluated in terms of the ∆ω/ω_1 ratio, to eliminate the dependence on the dry bulb temperature along the test apparatus. This work presented initial experimental data for electrostatically enhanced dehumidification processes. Working parameters, such as air and water flow rates, high voltage potentials and polarity, deionized water types with different electrical conductivity, were varied to find the best combination for an improved dehumidification. With the set up used and the conditions considered, it was never possible to achieve a 5 % dehumidification rate with 5 cfm. In general, the dehumidification rate was always limited and lower than 1 % for all the air flow rates considered and mainly within the uncertainty of the dew point sensors. These results confirmed the already limited predictions of the thermodynamics model, for ideal conditions and the interesting and promising results obtained in some experimental investigations available in the open literature were not achievable in this thesis. The more probable reasons were the higher air flow rates considered and the complete absence of the use of cooling power, which was mainly implemented to facilitate the vapor condensation.

Morcelli, Stefano↗

DOE OSTI2025

HighDimMixedModels.jl: Robust high-dimensional mixed-effects models across omics data

High-dimensional mixed-effects models are an increasingly important form of regression in which the number of covariates rivals or exceeds the number of samples, which are collected in groups or clusters. The penalized likelihood approach to fitting these models relies on a coordinate descent algorithm that lacks guarantees of convergence to a global optimum. Here, we empirically study the behavior of this algorithm on simulated and real examples of three types of data that are common in modern biology: transcriptome, genome-wide association, and microbiome data. Our simulations provide new insights into the algorithm’s behavior in these settings, and, comparing the performance of two popular penalties, we demonstrate that the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty consistently outperforms the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty in terms of both variable selection and estimation accuracy across omics data. To empower researchers in biology and other fields to fit models with the SCAD penalty, we implement the algorithm in a Julia package, HighDimMixedModels.jl .

Gorstein, Evan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Soil Origin and Plant Genotype Modulate Switchgrass Aboveground Productivity and Root Microbiome Assembly

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is a model perennial grass for bioenergy production that can be productive in agricultural lands that are not suitable for food production. There is growing interest in whether its associated microbiome may be adaptive in low- or no-input cultivation systems. However, the relative impact of plant genotype and soil factors on plant microbiome and biomass are a challenge to decouple. To address this, a common garden greenhouse experiment was carried out using six common switchgrass genotypes, which were each grown in four different marginal soils collected from long-term bioenergy research sites in Michigan and Wisconsin. We characterized the fungal and bacterial root communities with high-throughput amplicon sequencing of the ITS and 16S rDNA markers, and collected phenological plant traits during plant growth, as well as soil chemical traits. At harvest, we measured the total plant aerial dry biomass. Significant differences in richness and Shannon diversity across soils but not between plant genotypes were found. Generalized linear models showed an interaction between soil and genotype for fungal richness but not for bacterial richness. Community structure was also strongly shaped by soil origin and soil origin × plant genotype interactions. Overall, plant genotype effects were significant but low. Random Forest models indicate that important factors impacting switchgrass biomass included NO 3 – , Ca 2+ , PO 4 3– , and microbial biodiversity. We identified 54 fungal and 52 bacterial predictors of plant aerial biomass, which included several operational taxonomic units belonging to Glomeraceae and Rhizobiaceae, fungal and bacterial lineages that are involved in provisioning nutrients to plants.

plant biomass↗

NASA NTRS1994

Dynamic modeling of orographically induced precipitation

Local orography governs the triggering of cloud formation and the enhancement of processes such as condensation and hydrometeor nucleation and growth in mountainous regions. Intense, lengthy precipitation events are typical upwind of the topographic divide, with sharply decreasing magnitude and duration on the lee side. Differences in mean annual precipitation of several hundred percent between windward slopes of orographic barriers and adjacent valleys or lee side slopes are not unusual. Because much of the streamflow in areas such as the western United States is derived from mountainous areas that are remote and often poorly instrumented, modeling of orographic precipitation has important implications for water resources management. Models of orographically induced precipitation differ by their treatment of atmospheric dynamics and by the extent to which they rely on bulk parameterization of cloud and precipitation physics. Adiabatic ascent and a direct proportionality between efficiency and orographically magnified updrafts are the most frequent assumptions in orographic precipitation modeling. Space-time discretization (i.e., resolution) is a major issue because of the high spatial variability of orographic precipitation. For a specific storm, relative errors as large as 50 to 100% are common in the forecast/hindcast of precipitation intensity and can be even larger in the case of catastrophic storms. When monthly or seasonal timescales are used to evaluate model performance, the magnitude of such errors decreases dramatically, reaching values as low as 10 to 15%. Current research is focusing on the development of data assimilation techniques to incorporate radar and satellite observations, and on the development of aggregation and disaggregation methodologies to address the implications of modeling a multiscale problem at restricted spatial and temporal resolutions.

Barros, Ana Paula↗

NASA NTRS2005

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented.

Goetz, Scott J.↗