Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Disease Models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

The impact of kidney function on Alzheimer’s disease blood biomarkers: implications for predicting amyloid-β positivity

Impaired kidney function has a potential confounding effect on blood biomarker levels, including biomarkers for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Given the imminent use of certain blood biomarkers in the routine diagnostic work-up of patients with suspected AD, knowledge on the potential impact of comorbidities on the utility of blood biomarkers is important. We aimed to evaluate the association between kidney function, assessed through estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) calculated from plasma creatinine and AD blood biomarkers, as well as their influence over predicting Aβ-positivity. We included 242 participants from the Translational Biomarkers in Aging and Dementia (TRIAD) cohort, comprising cognitively unimpaired individuals (CU; n = 124), mild cognitive impairment (MCI; n = 58), AD dementia (n = 34), and non-AD dementia (n = 26) patients all characterized by [ 18 F] AZD-4694. Plasma samples were analyzed for Aβ42, Aβ40, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), neurofilament light chain (NfL), tau phosphorylated at threonine 181 (p-tau181), 217 (p-tau217), 231 (p-tau231) and N-terminal containing tau fragments (NTA-tau) using Simoa technology. Kidney function was assessed by eGFR in mL/min/1.73 m 2 , based on plasma creatinine levels, age, and sex. Participants were also stratified according to their eGFR-indexed stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We evaluated the association between eGFR and blood biomarker levels with linear models and assessed whether eGFR provided added predictive value to determine Aβ-positivity with logistic regression models. Biomarker concentrations were highest in individuals with CKD stage 3, followed by stages 2 and 1, but differences were only significant for NfL, Aβ42, and Aβ40 (not Aβ42/Aβ40). All investigated biomarkers showed significant associations with eGFR except plasma NTA-tau, with stronger relationships observed for Aβ40 and NfL. However, after adjusting for either age, sex or Aβ-PET SUVr, the association with eGFR was no longer significant for all biomarkers except Aβ40, Aβ42, NfL, and GFAP. When evaluating whether accounting for kidney function could lead to improved prediction of Aβ-positivity, we observed no improvements in model fit (Akaike Information Criterion, AIC) or in discriminative performance (AUC) by adding eGFR to a base model including each plasma biomarker, age, and sex. While covariates like age and sex improved model fit, eGFR contributed minimally, and there were no significant differences in clinical discrimination based on AUC values. We found that kidney function seems to be associated with AD blood biomarker concentrations. However, these associations did not remain significant after adjusting for age and sex, except for Aβ40, Aβ42, NfL, and GFAP. While covariates such as age and sex improved prediction of Aβ-positivity, including eGFR in the models did not lead to improved prediction for any biomarker. Our findings indicate that renal function, within the normal to mild impairment range, does not seem to have a clinically relevant impact when using highly accurate blood biomarkers, such as p-tau217, in a biomarker-supported diagnosis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

cTULIP: application of a human-based RNA-seq primary tumor classification tool for cross-species primary tumor classification in canine

The domestic dog, Canis familiaris, is quickly gaining traction as an advantageous model for use in the study of cancer, one of the leading causes of death worldwide. Naturally occurring canine cancers share clinical, histological, and molecular characteristics with the corresponding human diseases. In this study, we take a deep-learning approach to test how similar the gene expression profile of canine glioma and bladder cancer (BLCA) tumors are to the corresponding human tumors. We likewise develop a tool for identifying misclassified or outlier samples in large canine oncological datasets, analogous to that which was developed for human datasets. We test a number of machine learning algorithms and found that a convolutional neural network outperformed logistic regression and random forest approaches. We use a recently developed RNA-seq-based convolutional neural network, TULIP, to test the robustness of a human-data-trained primary tumor classification tool on cross-species primary tumor prediction. Our study ultimately highlights the molecular similarities between canine and human BLCA and glioma tumors, showing that protein-coding one-to-one homologs shared between humans and canines, are sufficient to distinguish between BLCA and gliomas. The results of this study indicate that using protein-coding one-to-one homologs as the features in the input layer of TULIP performs good primary tumor prediction in both humans and canines. Furthermore, our analysis shows that our selected features also contain the majority of features with known clinical relevance in BLCA and gliomas. Our success in using a human-data-trained model for cross-species primary tumor prediction also sheds light on the conservation of oncological pathways in humans and canines, further underscoring the importance of the canine model system in the study of human disease.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vascular dysfunction in hemorrhagic viral fevers: opportunities for organotypic modeling

The hemorrhagic fever viruses (HFVs) cause severe or fatal infections in humans. Named after their common symptom hemorrhage, these viruses induce significant vascular dysfunction by affecting endothelial cells, altering immunity, and disrupting the clotting system. Despite advances in treatments, such as cytokine blocking therapies, disease modifying treatment for this class of pathogen remains elusive. Improved understanding of the pathogenesis of these infections could provide new avenues to treatment. While animal models and traditional 2D cell cultures have contributed insight into the mechanisms by which these pathogens affect the vasculature, these models fall short in replicating in vivo human vascular dynamics. The emergence of microphysiological systems (MPSs) offers promising avenues for modeling these complex interactions. These MPS or ‘organ-on-chip’ models present opportunities to better mimic human vascular responses and thus aid in treatment development. In this review, we explore the impact of HFV on the vasculature by causing endothelial dysfunction, blood clotting irregularities, and immune dysregulation. We highlight how existing MPS have elucidated features of HFV pathogenesis as well as discuss existing knowledge gaps and the challenges in modeling these interactions using MPS. Understanding the intricate mechanisms of vascular dysfunction caused by HFV is crucial in developing therapies not only for these infections, but also for other vasculotropic conditions like sepsis.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2023

Future Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Agricultural Yields, Production, and Market

This study provides estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields and the agricultural economy through the end of the 21st century, utilizing multiple climate scenarios. Results from a process-based crop model project future increases in wheat, grassland, and soybean yield due to climate change and atmospheric CO2 change; corn and sorghum show more muted responses. Results using yields from econometric models show less positive results. Both the econometric and process-based models tend to show more positive yields by the end of the century than several other similar studies. Using the process-based model to provide future yield estimates to an integrated agricultural sector model, the welfare gain is roughly $16B/year (2019 USD) for domestic producers and $6.2B/year for international trade, but domestic consumers lose $10.6B/year, resulting in a total welfare gain of $11.7B/year. When yield projections for major crops are drawn instead from econometric models, total welfare losses of more than $28B/year arise. Simulations using the process-based model as input to the agricultural sector model show large future production increases for soybean, wheat, and sorghum and large price reductions for corn and wheat. The most important factors are those about economic growth, flooding, international trade, and the type of yield model used. Somewhat less, but not insignificant factors include adaptation, livestock productivity, and damages from surface ozone, waterlogging, and pests and diseases.

Agricultural sector↗
DOE OSTI2025

When to vaccinate for seasonal influenza: check the peak forecast

Background Seasonal influenza infects 5-20% of people every year in the United States, resulting in hospitalizations, deaths, and adverse economic impacts. To mitigate these impacts, influenza vaccines are developed and distributed annually; however, growing evidence suggests that vaccine effectiveness (VE) wanes over the course of a flu season. Delaying influenza vaccination for older adults has attracted attention as a potential public health strategy. However, given the uncertainties in seasonal peak, vaccine effectiveness, and waning rates, postponing vaccination could also lead to increased morbidity, motivating an evaluation of a range of potential scenarios. The aim of this study was to investigate favorable age group-specific vaccination schedules that could lead to the greatest disease burden reduction. Methods We systematically investigated a broad range of vaccination start times for five age groups under six combinations of initial effectiveness and waning rates, based on influenza cases and vaccine uptake data from 10 influenza seasons. We defined the most favorable vaccination schedule as the one that resulted in the greatest reduction in disease burden. Results In scenarios with fast waning, all age groups benefit from delaying vaccination regardless of initial VE and peak timing. In scenarios with slower waning, results are mixed. For the ≥65 group, high initial VE and slow waning suggests that in early-peaking seasons, early vaccination most effectively reduces disease burden, while in late-peaking seasons delaying vaccination is most effective. For the ≥65 group in medium and low initial VE, and slow waning scenarios, delaying vaccination appears to prevent the greatest number of cases, regardless of whether the season peaks early or late. Conclusion The most favorable vaccination schedule is sensitive to changes in initial VE, waning rate, and peak timing. Given estimates of these quantities from statistical and immunological models and observations, our methods can inform vaccination recommendations in order to most effectively reduce the annual disease burden caused by seasonal influenza. Specifically, accurate peak timing forecasts for the upcoming season have the potential to guide decisions on when to vaccinate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Crystal structure of the human PRPK–TPRKB complex

Mutations of the p53-related protein kinase (PRPK) and TP53RK-binding protein (TPRKB) cause Galloway-Mowat syndrome (GAMOS) and are found in various human cancers. We have previously shown that small compounds targeting PRPK showed anti-cancer activity against colon and skin cancer. Here we present the 2.53 Å crystal structure of the human PRPK-TPRKB-AMPPNP (adenylyl-imidodiphosphate) complex. The structure reveals details in PRPK-AMPPNP coordination and PRPK-TPRKB interaction. PRPK appears in an active conformation, albeit lacking the conventional kinase activation loop. We constructed a structural model of the human EKC/KEOPS complex, composed of PRPK, TPRKB, OSGEP, LAGE3, and GON7. Disease mutations in PRPK and TPRKB are mapped into the structure, and we show that one mutation, PRPK K238Nfs*2, lost the binding to OSGEP. Our structure also makes the virtual screening possible and paves the way for more rational drug design.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Chromosome-Scale Genome Assembly of the Flax Rust Fungus Reveals the Two Unusually Large Effector Proteins, AvrM3 and AvrN

Rust fungi comprise thousands of species, many of which cause disease on important crop plants. The flax rust fungus Melampsora lini has been a model species for the genetic dissection of plant immunity since the 1940s; however, the highly fragmented and incomplete reference genome has so far hindered progress in effector gene discovery. Here, we generated a fully phased, chromosome-scale assembly of the two nuclear genomes of M. lini strain CH5, resolving an additional 320 Mbp of the sequence. The 482-Mbp dikaryotic genome is at least 79% repetitive, with a large proportion (approximately 40%) of the genome comprising young, highly similar transposable elements. The assembly resolves the known effector gene loci, some of which carry complex duplications that were collapsed in the previous assembly. Using a genetic map followed by manual correction of gene models, we identified the AvrM3 and AvrN genes, which encode unusually large fungal effector proteins and trigger defense responses when co-expressed with the corresponding resistance genes. We located the genes linked to the tetrapolar mating system on chromosomes 4 and 9, but in contrast to the cereal rusts that have one pheromone receptor gene per haplotype, in flax rust, three pheromone receptor genes were found, with two of them closely linked on one haplotype. Taken together, we show that a high-quality assembly is crucial for resolving complex gene loci, and given the increasing number of fungal effectors of large size, the commonly applied criterion for effector candidates of being small proteins needs to be reconsidered.

Melampsora↗
DOE OSTI2024

Steroid responsiveness in alcohol-associated hepatitis is linked to glucocorticoid metabolism, mitochondrial repair, and heat shock proteins

Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is one of the clinical presentations of alcohol-associated liver disease. AH has poor prognosis, and corticosteroids remain the mainstay of drug therapy. However, ~40% of patients do not respond to this treatment, and the mechanisms underlying the altered response to corticosteroids are not understood. The current study aimed to identify changes in hepatic protein expression associated with responsiveness to corticosteroids and prognosis in patients with AH. Patients with AH were enrolled based on the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism inclusion criteria for acute AH and further confirmed by a diagnostic liver biopsy. Proteomic analysis was conducted on liver samples acquired from patients with AH grouped as nonresponders (AH-NR, n = 7) and responders (AH-R, n = 14) to corticosteroids, and nonalcohol-associated liver disease controls (n = 10). The definition of responders was based on the clinical prognostic model, the Lille Score, where a score < 0.45 classified patients as AH-R and a score > 0.45 as AH-NR. Primary outcomes used to assess steroid response were Lille Score (eg, improved liver function) and survival at 24 weeks. Reduced levels of the glucocorticoid receptor and its transcriptional co-activator, glucocorticoid modulatory element-binding protein 2, were observed in the hepatic proteome of AH-NR versus AH-R. The corticosteroid metabolizing enzyme, 11-beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase 1, was increased in AH-NR versus AH-R along with elevated mitochondrial DNA repair enzymes, while several proteins of the heat shock pathway were reduced. Analysis of differentially expressed proteins in AH-NR who survived 24 weeks relative to AH-NR nonsurvivors revealed several protein expression changes, including increased levels of acute phase proteins, elevated coagulation factors, and reduced mast cell markers. This study identified hepatic proteomic changes that may predict responsiveness to corticosteroids and mortality in patients with AH.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient Scalable Contact Network Generation from Population Data

Modeling the contacts among a population is critical to understanding the dynamics of a disease outbreak. Contact networks, where nodes are individuals and edges are contacts among them, are used to represent these complex individual-level interactions. In this work, we are given the daily activity schedules of an urban population that represent the activity location and time of individuals in a population during a single twenty four hour period over multiple days. Using collocation to determine contact between individuals, our goal is to extract hourly contact networks from large-scale activity data. We improve upon the existing adjacency matrix-based method by implementing our custom sparse matrix multiplication algorithm. Starting with a Python implementation, we achieve a 1600x speed up in the computation with a fast custom designed sparse matrix multiplier algorithm implemented in the C++ language. This work is central to future parallel designs of the problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating the impact of environmental factors on West Nile virus human case prediction in Ontario, Canada

West Nile virus is the most common mosquito borne disease in North America and the leading cause of viral encephalitis. West Nile virus is primarily transmitted between birds and mosquitoes while humans are incidental, dead-end hosts. Climate change may increase the risk of human infections as climatic variables have been shown to affect the mosquito life cycle, biting rate, incubation period of the disease in mosquitoes, and bird migration patterns. We develop a zero-inflated Poisson model to investigate how human West Nile virus case counts vary with respect to mosquito abundance and infection rates, bird abundance, and other environmental covariates. We use a Bayesian paradigm to fit our model to data from 2010–2019 in Ontario, Canada. Our results show mosquito infection rate, temperature, precipitation, and crow abundance are positively correlated with human cases while NDVI and robin abundance are negatively correlated with human cases. We find the inclusion of spatial random effects allows for more accurate predictions, particularly in years where cases are higher. Our model is able to accurately predict the magnitude and timing of yearly West Nile virus outbreaks and could be a valuable tool for public health officials to implement prevention strategies to mitigate these outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

New Development in NASA's Rodent Research Hardware for Conducting Long Duration Biomedical and Basic Research in Space

Animal models, particularly rodents, are the foundation of pre-clinical research to understand human diseases and evaluate new therapeutics, and play a key role in advancing biomedical discoveries both on Earth and in space. The National Research Councils Decadal survey emphasized the importance of expanding NASAs life sciences research to perform long duration, rodent experiments on the International Space Station (ISS). To accomplish this objective, flight hardware, operations, and science capabilities were developed at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) to enhance science return for both commercial (CASIS) and government-sponsored rodent research. The Rodent Research program at NASA ARC has pioneered a new research capability on the International Space Station and has progressed toward translating research to the ISS utilizing commercial rockets, collaborating with academia and science industry, while training crewmembers to assist in performing research on orbit. Throughout phases of these missions, our practices, hardware and operations have evolved from tested to developed standards, and we are able to modify and customize our procedure and operations for mission specific requirements. The Rodent Research Habitat is capable of providing a living environment for animals on ISS according to standard animal welfare requirements. Using the cameras in the Habitat, the Rodent Research team has the ability to perform daily health checks on animals, and further analyze the collected videos for behavioral studies. A recent development of the Rodent Research hardware is inclusion of enrichment, to provide the animals the ability to rest and huddle. The Enrichment Hut is designed carefully for adult mice (up to 35 week old) within animal welfare, engineering, and operations constraints. The Hut is made out of the same stainless steel mesh as the cage interior, it has an ingress and an egress to allow animals move freely, and a hinge door to allow crewmembers remove the animals easily. The Rodent Research team has also developed Live Animal Return (LAR) capability, which will be implemented during Rodent Research-5 mission for the first time. The animals will be transported from the Habitat to a Transporter, which will return on the Dragon capsule and splashes down in the Pacific Ocean. Once SpaceX retrieves the Dragon, all powered payloads will be transferred to a SeaVan and transferred to the Long Beach pier. The NASA team then receives the transporter and delivers to a PI-designated laboratory within 120 mile radius of Long Beach. This is a significant improvement allowing researchers to examine animals within 72 hrs. of reentry or to conduct recovery experiments. Together, the hardware improvements and experience that the Rodent Research team has gained working with principal investigators and ISS crew to conduct complex experiments on orbit are expanding capabilities for long duration rodent research on the ISS to achieve both basic science and biomedical objectives.

ISS↗
NASA NTRS2023

Public Health Data Applications Using the CDC Tracking Network: Augmenting Environmental Hazard Information with Lower-latency NASA Data

Exposure to environmental hazards is an important determinant of health, and the frequency and severity of exposures is expected to be impacted by climate change. Through a partnership with the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network is integrating timely observations and model data of priority environmental hazards into its publicly accessible Data Explorer (https://ephtracking.cdc.gov/DataExplorer/). Newly integrated datasets over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) include: daily 5-day forecasts of air quality based on the Goddard Earth Observing System Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF), daily historical (1980-present) concentrations of speciated PM2.5 based on the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily near real-time maps of flooding (MCDWD). Data integrated into the CDC Tracking Network are broadly intended to improve community health through action by informing both research and early warning activities, including (1) describing temporal and spatial trends in disease and potential environmental exposures, (2) identifying populations most affected, (3) generating hypotheses about associations between health and environmental exposures, and (4) developing, guiding, and assessing environmental public health policies and interventions aimed at reducing or eliminating health outcomes associated with environmental factors.

air quality↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meta Biome: a multiscale model integrating agent-based and metabolic networks to reveal spatial regulation in gut mucosal microbial communities

ABSTRACT Mucosal microbial communities (MMCs) are complex ecosystems near the mucosal layers of the gut essential for maintaining health and modulating disease states. Despite advances in high-throughput omics technologies, current methodologies struggle to capture the dynamic metabolic interactions and spatiotemporal variations within MMCs. In this work, we presentMetaBiome, a multiscale model integrating agent-based modeling (ABM), finite volume methods, and constraint-based models to explore the metabolic interactions within these communities. Integrating ABM allows for the detailed representation of individual microbial agents each governed by rules that dictate cell growth, division, and interactions with their surroundings. Through a layered approach—encompassing microenvironmental conditions, agent information, and metabolic pathways—we simulated different communities to showcase the potential of the model. Using ourin-silicoplatform, we explored the dynamics and spatiotemporal patterns of MMCs in the proximal small intestine and the cecum, simulating the physiological conditions of the two gut regions. Our findings revealed how specific microbes adapt their metabolic processes based on substrate availability and local environmental conditions, shedding light on spatial metabolite regulation and informing targeted therapies for localized gut diseases.MetaBiome provides a detailed representation of microbial agents and their interactions, surpassing the limitations of traditional grid-based systems. This work marks a significant advancement in microbial ecology, as it offers new insights into predicting and analyzing microbial communities. IMPORTANCE Our study presents a novel multiscale model that combines agent-based modeling, finite volume methods, and genome-scale metabolic models to simulate the complex dynamics of mucosal microbial communities in the gut. This integrated approach allows us to capture spatial and temporal variations in microbial interactions and metabolism that are difficult to study experimentally. Key findings from our model include the following: (i) prediction of metabolic cross-feeding and spatial organization in multi-species communities, (ii) insights into how oxygen gradients and nutrient availability shape community composition in different gut regions, and (iii) identification of spatiallyregulated metabolic pathways and enzymes inE. coli. We believe this work represents a significant advance in computational modeling of microbial communities and provides new insights into the spatial regulation of gut microbiome metabolism. The multiscale modeling approach we have developed could be broadly applicable for studying other complex microbial ecosystems.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Models and Processes to Extract Drug-like Molecules From Natural Language Text

Researchers worldwide are seeking to repurpose existing drugs or discover new drugs to counter the disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). A promising source of candidates for such studies is molecules that have been reported in the scientific literature to be drug-like in the context of viral research. However, this literature is too large for human review and features unusual vocabularies for which existing named entity recognition (NER) models are ineffective. We report here on a project that leverages both human and artificial intelligence to detect references to such molecules in free text. We present 1) a iterative model-in-the-loop method that makes judicious use of scarce human expertise in generating training data for a NER model, and 2) the application and evaluation of this method to the problem of identifying drug-like molecules in the COVID-19 Open Research Dataset Challenge (CORD-19) corpus of 198,875 papers. We show that by repeatedly presenting human labelers only with samples for which an evolving NER model is uncertain, our human-machine hybrid pipeline requires only modest amounts of non-expert human labeling time (tens of hours to label 1778 samples) to generate an NER model with an F-1 score of 80.5%—on par with that of non-expert humans—and when applied to CORD’19, identifies 10,912 putative drug-like molecules. This enriched the computational screening team’s targets by 3,591 molecules, of which 18 ranked in the top 0.1% of all 6.6 million molecules screened for docking against the 3CLPro protein.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven prediction of α IIb β 3 integrin activation paths using manifold learning and deep generative modeling

The integrin heterodimer is a transmembrane protein critical for driving cellular process and is a therapeutic target in the treatment of multiple diseases linked to its malfunction. Activation of integrin involves conformational transitions between bent and extended states. Some of the conformations that are intermediate between bent and extended states of the heterodimer have been experimentally characterized, but the full activation pathways remain unresolved both experimentally due to their transient nature and computationally due to the challenges in simulating rare barrier crossing events in these large molecular systems. An understanding of the activation pathways can provide new fundamental understanding of the biophysical processes associated with the dynamic interconversions between bent and extended states and unveil new putative therapeutic targets. In this work, we apply nonlinear manifold learning to coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations of bent, extended, and two intermediate states of αI I b β3 integrin to learn a low-dimensional embedding of the configurational phase space. We then train deep generative models to learn an inverse mapping between the low-dimensional embedding and high-dimensional molecular space and use these models to interpolate the molecular configurations constituting the activation pathways between the experimentally characterized states. Furthermore, this work furnishes plausible predictions of integrin activation pathways and reports a generic and transferable multi-scale technique to predict transition pathways for biomolecular systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2018

Gene Expression of Pathogens in Simulated Microgravity

Extended exposure to radiation and microgravity in space has been linked to astronauts developing chronic diseases upon returning to Earth. The Gram-negative pathogen Serratia marcescens has been shown to potentially cause significant infections in humans and in insect models on Earth. Our recent findings also showed that S. marcescens shows an increase in virulence after a short period of growth in the spaceflight environment, which raises initiatives to find the correlation between space environment and the increased virulence. Because we know that the health of astronauts is immunocompromised in space, it is possible that the combination of increased bacterial virulence and the weakened immune system will cause astronauts to be more susceptible to chronic diseases in extended spaceflight. With 75% of human disease genes being conserved in the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster, these insects act as an ideal model organism to study the human immune system. The high accessibility, low cost, high rate of reproductivity, and short lifespans of D. melanogaster facilitate efficient, high-quality research that seeks to understand altered virulence of this opportunistic pathogen. In this ground-based study, we will use a rotating wall vessel apparatus to simulate microgravity and determine how pathogenicity changes by evaluating differences in gene expression for S. marcescens between bacteria grown in simulated microgravity conditions and controls. We will compare the results of our findings to gene expression patterns in actual spaceflight samples of S. marcescens grown on the ISS (International Space Station) during a recent validation mission, to see if there are common mechanisms across our simulated microgravity and actual spaceflight microgravity samples that both show increased virulence in the fruit fly. With extended space travel in the foreseeable future, understanding how human physiology will be affected by these different factors will help mitigate risks and deaths.

spaceflight analogue↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Inference of State-Level COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Numbers across the United States

Although many persons in the United States have acquired immunity to COVID-19, either through vaccination or infection with SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 will pose an ongoing threat to non-immune persons so long as disease transmission continues. We can estimate when sustained disease transmission will end in a population by calculating the population-specific basic reproduction number ℛ0, the expected number of secondary cases generated by an infected person in the absence of any interventions. The value of ℛ0 relates to a herd immunity threshold (HIT), which is given by 1−1/ℛ0. When the immune fraction of a population exceeds this threshold, sustained disease transmission becomes exponentially unlikely (barring mutations allowing SARS-CoV-2 to escape immunity). Here, we report state-level ℛ0 estimates obtained using Bayesian inference. Maximum a posteriori estimates range from 7.1 for New Jersey to 2.3 for Wyoming, indicating that disease transmission varies considerably across states and that reaching herd immunity will be more difficult in some states than others. ℛ0 estimates were obtained from compartmental models via the next-generation matrix approach after each model was parameterized using regional daily confirmed case reports of COVID-19 from 21 January 2020 to 21 June 2020. Our ℛ0 estimates characterize the infectiousness of ancestral strains, but they can be used to determine HITs for a distinct, currently dominant circulating strain, such as SARS-CoV-2 variant Delta (lineage B.1.617.2), if the relative infectiousness of the strain can be ascertained. On the basis of Delta-adjusted HITs, vaccination data, and seroprevalence survey data, we found that no state had achieved herd immunity as of 20 September 2021.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Global Premature Mortality Due to Anthropogenic Outdoor Air Pollution and the Contribution of Past Climate Change

Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry–climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration–response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (−20 000 to 27 000) deaths yr (exp -1) due to ozone and 2200 (−350 000 to 140 000) due to PM2.5. The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality.

human health↗